One fan's draft take
by biggity2bit on Jun 26, 2009 11:20 AM CDT
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Seems like there's a lot of discussion about whether this draft was a good one for the Wolves or not, with most media types ending up judging it incomplete--as in they don't feel it's possible for them to judge it yet without seeing what happens next.
For the most part I agree with this take. We've all been saying here at Hoopus that this draft will reveal a lot about Kahn's vision for the team, and I think this draft is very informative in that regard--especially in its incompleteness.
In my opinion the biggest single need on the Wolves' roster is simply talent. They desparately need players with the legitimate ability to be starters. So what did they do? They drafted two legitimate starters at 5 and 6. Yes, they play the same position, but I still think the choice to draft two guys with legitimate starting ability and legitimate star potential was the right choice. Maybe Rubio and Flynn co-exist, maybe one of them gets traded. They both have desirable retained value beyond this year, which is more than you can say for just about anyone else on the Wolves roster.
The Lawson trade also illustrates this trend--I would have liked to keep him somehow, but adding another first rounder next year is fantastic. Arguably we'll be in a position next year where we'll know more clearly what we need and what we don't, and having an extra first may be the clincher we need to make that happen.
I don't know much about Ellington, but from what I read no one doubts his scoring ability, just his athleticism and ability to create for himself. Well maybe those are significant red flags, but maybe he'll be a great compliment to one (or both) of our new points (or Al or Love). Dude doesn't need to create, just needs to hit 3-5 shots a night. Trading Calathes? I think we could've gotten more for him later on. Again, though, drafting who we needed to in order to get future assets. The Euro guy? Sounds like a reach, but maybe he develops. Throw away pick at this point.
I like this draft because the strategy I take from it was this: talent is talent, and talent will either help you win ball games or give you the ability to amass more options in the future. The whole thing strikes me as calculated--if we take Calathes and keep him, great. He might be awesome, but can be stashed in Europe for a year too. If someone else really wants him, then great--make us an offer. Same thing with Lawson. Same thing with Rubio. Flynn and Ellington both serve a need, and both look like they should be contributing players for a long time.
In short, I'll take it. No Paul Grants, no William Avery's, no Ndudi Ebi's, no Brewer's (at 7). This team won't be built in a day. Next year's draft is going to be huge.
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I know. I still think if you were to trade, his value will probably be higher next year. But then again, maybe he’ll not do well and this is his peak value. I still think it would have been nice to give it a shot.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 26, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Let's not forget though...
…that many fans liked the pick of Avery at 14 or so and Brewer at 7. We’ll see. I’m happy but, like most, would have preferred Curry at 6. I thought his scoring ability would be a better compliment to Rubio’s passing. I hope I turn out to be wrong about that.
I don't know
I’m seeing parallels between Brewer and Flynn. Many statheads didn’t think highly of either one and both of them saw their stocks rise due to something other than the totality of their college careers.
True
Although the one difference I recall in what people were saying (at least) about their workouts is that Flynn looked significantly better in 5 on 5’s, which is what matters most for his position. Brewer looked like a great athlete, but as a ball player?
That was my biggest concern about Evans—looks like a great athlete, but can he lead? Is he a playmaker? Part of what makes Roy so good is his attitude and mentality. Maybe Flynn doesn’t have the best measureables or stats, but (like Love) his mental make-up will only help him. Time will tell I guess.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Hollinger did have Flynn 9th in his draft rater & said the top 12 scored well enough in his rater as guys who should be able to play at the next level.
but this BPA approach is the Isiah Thomas approach to team building with no thought to how the puzzle pieces fit together. and Kahn thinking that Ainge/DJ/Dumars were pass first PGs like Rubio & Flynn are is a bit disturbing….. not to mention those 3 all had above average outside shots.
by homer simpson on Jun 26, 2009 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
But...
Flynn looked good in 5-on-5 practice workouts, which don’t change the fact that he had a pretty middling college career.
by AbusedWolvesSpouse on Jun 26, 2009 1:45 PM CDT reply actions
Yeah, that is what scares me.
Doesn’t he kind of feel like Foye or Joe Alexander? Somebody who rose in the draft based on workouts and being a good guy. I get that he is relatively long and strong and gave Tyreke trouble in workouts. I like that he can jump 40 inches and dunk from a standstill under the hoop. I just hope Rubio is good enough to get him the ball when he is standing alone under the hoop.
Not Foye
Foye came out polished as a scorer. There were high hopes that he could develop into a starting PG, but his biggest skill was slashing and scoring. Flynn can score, but is more developed as a passer and captain of the offense (made significant strides there the last two seasons). And what was the big knock on Foye in being a PG? He couldn’t run an offense, and he was just too slow to defend upper echelon guards. Flynn actually can run an offense, and he is fast enough to keep up with quick guards.
I don’t really buy the size argument either—there are far too many successful PGs in the league who don’t have ‘prototypical’ size. It’s what you say when someone isn’t the kind of player you like. 6’ 0" is tall enough, especially with a 6’ 4" wingspan (good enough for Chris Paul).
Lastly, I don’t really buy the ‘middling college career’ argument either, for while it is one important indicator of NBA success, it is not the only indicator for future potential success. Guys like Melo and DWade had stellar college and NBA careers, but what about Hansbrough or Lawson, or even Laettner? Besides, the guy (Flynn) led Syracuse to the Sweet 16 this year, was MVP of the Big East Tournament, and was co-Big East Freshman of the Year the year prior. I woudn’t really call that middling. I’d call Al Nolen’s career middling. I’d call Rick Rickert’s or Joel Przbilla’s college careers middling. Flynn’s may not be stellar, but certainly better than middling.
Finally (sorry is this is so long), don’t you want your point guard to look good in 5 on 5 situations? Am I missing something here? What he demonstrated in his workouts was that he was the size everyone expected and had the leaping ability and quickness everyone expected. What was a revelation was that—when compared directly to his peers—he played better and took command better in 5 on 5 settings than was expected. I guess I just don’t see how this is a knock on the guy. If anything the frustration with Foye is that he had a lot of physical ability but couldn’t figure out how to play with 4 other guys and make them better. That’s what Flynn did in his workouts, and so yes, that’s why he rose up draft boards after the workouts. I guess I just like the idea of a point who can distribute and create for others while staying with his guy defensively more than I like an athletically superior but much more marginal play creator for others as a PG.
I don’t know if Flynn will work out or not, but I think he has at least as good a chance to be a 15 ppg, 7+ assist with (at min.) average defense as Evans, Lawson, Calathes, Jennings, Rubio, Holiday, etc. etc. And I think, as Wolves fans, we would have felt absolutely great if we had gotten that from Foye last year.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Guys like Melo and DWade had stellar college and NBA careers, but what about Hansbrough or Lawson, or even Laettner?
Hansbrough was a great scorer and little else.
But what about Lawson? Most people still don’t understand why Flynn is held in such higher regard than Lawson. Is it because he has a bigger wingspan and can jump a little higher?
Finally (sorry is this is so long), don’t you want your point guard to look good in 5 on 5 situations? Am I missing something here? What he demonstrated in his workouts was that he was the size everyone expected and had the leaping ability and quickness everyone expected. What was a revelation was that—when compared directly to his peers—he played better and took command better in 5 on 5 settings than was expected. I guess I just don’t see how this is a knock on the guy.
It’s a knock on him because it’s an extraordinarily small sample size that ought to carry little weight. Honestly, what could you discern from a few workouts that you couldn’t during his 73 game college career?
Small sample size
Fair enough, I give you that. Hard to read too much out of a small sample size. Never the less, you can’t simply dismiss that he did what he did during that small sample size either. Just like you can’t dismiss, as you point out, what he did during his 73 game college career.
I’d be curious—and I’m not trying to be antagonistic here but really am interested—what about Flynn’s college career makes you feel he’s so overrated. I brought up Hansbrough because he’s the all-time leading scorer in the ACC, which is no small feat, and yet he’s projected to be a rotation guy to spot starter in the NBA. Ty Lawson was fantastic, and I think he has a great chance of being a good player in this league, but at some point size and athletic considerations do matter in the NBA. He reminds me of a slightly taller Khalid El-Amin, who was also a fantastic college ball player. However Khalid couldn’t hack it in the NBA ultimately because of his physical limitations. It ain’t fair, it just is what it is. And until Lawson can prove that he’s an exception to the general rule that sub 6’ PGs will have trouble in the NBA, people will continue to rightfully doubt him (just like people rightfully doubt Love’s long term prospects. Don’t want to get into a whole Blazer’s debate again, but only his track record will quiet the critics.)
The truth is that I haven’t seen Flynn play, I can only rely on the stats available to me and scouting reports from sources that I have some faith in, so I honestly don’t know what kind of floor leader is. What I do know is that when you’re on a sports team full of guys who think they’re alphas, and one guy clearly and consistently establishes himself as the Alpha, that guy usually turns out to be a great leader and usually one of the better players. Maybe not the best, but one of the best. Is it kind of a weak argument? Ya, but I think it illustrates the main point (and value) about Flynn for me: the Wolves desparately need a guy to take charge, to play with heart, to put some swagger on the floor. I don’t care if Flynn scores more or less than Curry, Rubio, Evans, or Lawson (or Mayo) at the end of the year. I care if he can pull a little mean streak out of Brewer and Love. I care if he can feed the big guys down low and the shooters shooter up top. I care if he can establish a bit of identity and personality on this team, and get this group of guys playing together and playing for each other. To me this is what the drafting of a guy like Flynn was about—and Lawson could have been that guy too—instead of getting Curry.
Ugh. I write long responses. Sorry ’bout that.
In terms of his 73 game college career, what stats don’t you like? What progression is missing for you
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
oops
Not sure how that last sentence fragment got there. You can disregard that. It was a tack that, upon further thought, didn’t reflect what I really wanted to know.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
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