Some Non-Rubio matters to think about
by Auswolf on Jun 28, 2009 5:23 AM CDT
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We have been tying ourselves in knots over the last 72 hours over Rubio. While the are many factors to play out over the coming weeks and months, the Wolves Front Office have to be in the business of putting together a roster for the 09/10 season.
Let's work on the assumption that Rubio is not here for this season. How do we stack up?
PG: Flynn/Telfair/Brown
SG: Brewer/Ellington/?Gomes
SF: Gomes/Brewer
PF: Love/Jefferson/Smith/Cardinal/Songaila
C: Jefferson/Thomas/Madsen/Pecherov
14 guys under contract when Flynn and Ellington sign their scale deals.
Hmm, what we lack in quality bigs, we make up for in quantity. But there is a hole at 2 and 3 that could politely be described as cavernous. This will leave the door open for Rodney Carney to fill the 15th spot on the roster and for mine he deserves a short modest deal a la Telfair and Smith.
In refering back to SnP's trade summary from May, a couple of ideal trade candidates were identified.
Gerald Wallace: had 16ppg, 7 reb and 2.5 assists last season. The Bobcats have some ownership issues at present but most importantly from out point of view have cap issues with slightly over $50 million committed into 2010/11 on eight contracts (plus Gerald Henderson's scale deal to be added).
Wallace turns 27 in a couple of weeks and is up for 9.07m this season 9.86m in 2010/11 and 10.65 in 2011/12 with a player option for 11.4m in 2012/13 at age 30.
Leverage wise, we just acquired a future first from Charlotte via Denver in the Ty Lawson trade, so a trade could look like.
Wallace for the return of Charlotte's future 1st, Madsen or Smith and Cardinal.
Tayshaun Prince: has not missed a regular season game in about 7 seasons and while he isn't a prolific scorer, he provides length and experience on a young squad. He has two seasons remaining at Detroit (10.3m this season and 11.1m in 2010/11), so he can act as a hand over to an up and coming player in two year time.
The Pistons have shed a tonne of salary with the free agency of Allen Iverson, so leverage here may be to satisfy a positional need. If Rodney Stuckey is given the keys to the team but runs into Mum's letterbox, Detroit may turn it's lonely eyes to Jonny Flynn next offseason. This season, Flynn is our security blanket so unlikely to move unless we need to please Ricky.
Flynn and Thomas for Prince (if done this season)
Andrei Kirilenko: is a pricey option. Due 16.4m this season and 17.8m in 2010/11.
Is this an efficient use of resources for a guy who may only spend two (expensive) seasons in Minnesota? I'll admit to not knowing much about this guy other than he is, ahem, difficult. We have Utah's 2010 pick providing the Jazz don't sink to the lottery, whether that gets it done is open for debate. Fesenko would add to the Russian flavour of the Wolvskis, but is an expiring deal worth 870k.
Return of Utah's 2010 1st round pick, Thomas, Cardinal and Smith for Kirilenko and Fesenko
A number of other names are worth discussing:
Corey Maggette (although I'm told being a Dukie is problematic),
would Portland part with Martell Webster?
will Francisco Garcia fall back in Sacto's depth chart?
Do we make a play for Rudy Gay (if only coz it rhymes)?
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Wallace would be a decent get
But I don’t see that deal working. I mean, you are right, the charlotte payroll is a mess, but that deal is a tough sell.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 28, 2009 9:39 AM CDT reply actions
Plus...
We own their pick next year. Unless they see themselves improving, I think they’d be very hesistant to do any deal involving the Wolves.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 28, 2009 3:58 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, part of the deal
I think would have to be returning that pick.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 28, 2009 4:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Trade Thoughs
The Wallace trade would be insane for the Bobcats. When you combine his win shares with his defense- He’s a Top 15 NBA player. A trade of him for a worthless expiring and that pick is miles away from reasonable value.
The Prince trade I would never do. He’s 29 and as Hollinger pointed out his D seemed to slip up this year. Let’s keep Flynn and see what we have.
The AK-47 would be the most doable. It depends how desperate Utah is to save 1 year of his salary. I love the fit (He’s a Defensive monster).
Welcome back
nothing really happened while you were away.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I'll agree that a Wallace trade isn't fair value
but in this market and in their predicament with payroll, they may bite. The length of the deal is the issue. Do you want to pay a 30 year old 11 mil?
Some other, more general non-Rubio issues:
Jefferson and Brewer’s ligaments?
Will Flynn and Ellington be good enough to give the Wolves a non-expansion backcourt?
Will Kevin Love move beyond being a stathead darling?
What’s their approach to free agency?
What’s their approach with Carney, Sheldon?
Coach?
Will Kahn purge the front office, and if so who does he bring in? Analysts? Scouting?
Will they trade expirings for a player, or are they committed to going all young?
What else?
Excellent questions all
I’m less concerned about Jefferson’s ligaments long term, because of his game, and we’re hearing positive things about his recovery. Brewer…we’ll see. He hasn’t really established himself in the league. I wasn’t expecting much before the injury, and I still don’t. His game is just so…chicken with head cut off. He’s active, but to what purpose? It isn’t just the lousy shooting; I’m frankly not sure he’s coordinated enough to be a good player.
Flynn and Ellington are an expansion backcourt. Seriously, if those guys are the starters, it’s a monster long season.
Love is going to have better stats across the board because he’ll play more minutes; whether he’s actually a much better player or not, I don’t know. He’s pretty good already. I’d like to see the midrange jumper emerge.
Free agency for the Wolves is for roster parts. No long term deals this off-season, I hope. Not time for that yet.
Hard to envision Williams back given the Wiz deal. Carney? maybe. I don’t think either of these guys is a contributor to the next good Wolves team.
I suspect it’s going to be Mark Jackson, though then again I was sure they were going to take Curry at 6, so who knows? I don’t love the Jackson idea, but I don’t have a lot of good ones myself. Coaches, outside a very few guys, should be “do no harm” guys. Otherwise, you get Wittman.
I don’t think they make a major expirings for player trade this year. The problem is, most “stars” who get traded in these types of deals are over 30 or close (Vince Carter, Richard Jefferson this year). Younger players are usually cheaper salary wise, and even if they’ve signed their extensions, their teams aren’t willing to give them up or give up on them yet. Gerald Wallace is an example. he’s probably young enough for the Wolves to consider, and the Bobcats have a terrible payroll situation for the next few years, but can you really see them dealing Wallace for our expiring parts?
by Eric in Madison on Jun 28, 2009 12:27 PM CDT up reply actions
It’s funny. Earlier I was very opposed to the idea of Kirk Hinrich. I thought he was overpaid, and not worth his contract. But now on this team, I almost wonder if he might not make some sense. I’m not sure if I’d advocate just tossing the keys to Flynn and let him get overwhelmed night after night. Hinrich could step in, act as a sort of backcourt mentor, could play off the ball or on, and probably be the team’s best shooter. And even if Rubio plays in Target Center this year, a Rubio, Flynn, Hinrich rotation is certainly workable.
His contract is 4 more seasons, I believe, but it decreases salary. Given far more accomplished players are getting traded for cap space, I don’t think Chicago could expect more than something like Brian Cardinal + filler. I’m not sure how Kahn’s planning on using cap space over the next couple of seasons, but if he’s planning on going all young in the immediate future, short of landing Marvin Williams in a sign-and-trade or something, they could do worse than grab a decent guard to ease the learning curve along for Rubio and Flynn.
It's amazing
that “Brian Cardinal” isn’t even considered “filler” anymore.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Nope. When you have one year left on your deal and are getting paid like Cardinal is, you get your name back, or at least attached to the words “expiring contract.”
IMO, I think when teams deal for an expiring, and they have their post-trade presser, they should just roll up the contract and put it behind the microphone. After the Garnett deal, it was almost painful to watch everyone pretending Theo Ratliff’s experience and defense were even close to being an element of the deal. They should have just had his contract up there behind the mic.
Until the Rubio Resolution happens
nothing gets done with any free agents—especially ones who would start. By pinning their hopes to an 18 year old floor general who likely won’t play this year or next, they actually “got younger”, in the words of Hoiberg. In fact, one scenario I see happening is AlJeff getting tired of losing, and asking to be the “big” who gets moved as part of the Five Stage Rebuilding Plan. Which, I’m fine with, as long as we get picks and youth back—especially if they’re players who can flourish in an uptempo style.
We took several steps backward in the last month. But they needed to be made before the team can go forward. My 2012 NBA Champions timeline is now 2014. Kobe’s gone, LeBron’s worn down, Howard still can’t make free throws, DWade’s body can’t get up off the floor—the timing is right, people.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I'd like to see them give a shot...
…to some unsigned free agents like Paul Harris and Alade Aminu. Maybe even Josh Heytvelt if they can clear enough roster space. If they can swing a deal for a solid 3, that would be great, but at this point, and with the roster looking like it does, I’d like to see them give one-year shots to guys like Harris and Aminu.
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Based on the Miller/Foye deal...
And everything Kahn’s been saying, I’d be very surprised if they took on any long-term deals. My guess is that they’ll try to help facilitate trades and pick up extra assets (maybe similar to the Philly deal last year) and then try to fill in the roster during August and September. If the economy affects hoops like it did MLB, there will probly be some guys w/o contracts who could come in on a one-year deal and help shore up a position. But I think they’ll also bring some guys into camp like Harris and Aminu (or similar guys) and give them a shot to earn their way onto the roster.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 28, 2009 4:04 PM CDT reply actions
Like the Wallace idea, just not yet
This would be more of a trading deadline deal or next summer. Kahn is not going to do anything that will risk the Wolves #1 next year going to the Clippers. He knows they need about 3 more parts (assuming Rubio/Flynn and Al/Love fill two positions). I really believe Kahn and Taylor are setting the stage for getting Cole Aldrich next year. Two reasons, talent and Rubio+Aldrich=full Target Center for 10 years.
Cole Aldrich
Had a productive year, and he grew up in Minnesota, but he isn’t a franchise player, or a strong prospect to become one, and seeing him on the Timberwolves roster wouldn’t give me any extra motivation to buy a ticket. YAWN.
Given we have 14
on the roster when Flynn and Ellington sign, is there a chance Brown and/or Pecherov get bought out?
I understand Pech has a team option (good luck with that), but he really is filler.
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