Quick and dirty Rubio projections

So I read through Lu's Draft Outcast page on Rubio, and using his numbers I wanted to figure out what some per game values are for Rubio. We'll see how close I get whenever he get's around to posting them himself.

I had to make some assumptions, so it's not perfect (for example, I assumed Ricky would shoot 44% on two's), but I thought it would be fun to get a ball park estimate of what might be in store. The assists and TO's also seem way off, but maybe that just shows how great Rubio is at passing (and how aggressive).

So, here are the numbers, in points/assists/turnovers per minute increment.

12 minutes per game: 4.8 pts, 7.04 assists, 2.67 TO

24 min/game: 9.61 pts, 14.08 assists, 5.34 TO

36 min/game: 14.41 pts, 21.11 assists, 8 TO

The assists and TO's seem waaaaaay too high to me, but near as I can figure it Lu's Assist and Turnover rates are the number of assists/TOs per 100 possessions. I did some digging at arrived at the TWolves averaging 92 offensive possessions per game, which is what I used for making the calculation. If there's an error, someone please let me know and I'll update the numbers.

Even if it is correct, Rubio won't come anywhere near averaging those numbers. However, it probably is a clue at just how great his potential as a passer is in the NBA. Adding yet another two cents into the Flynn debate, Rubio doesn't project to be more than an outstanding scorer in the NBA, but he does project to be an outstanding passer and facilitator. Lu, in his page on Flynn, finds the closest correlation to Flynn is D.J. Augustin, who has similar physical comps, attitude and BB IQ comps, and leadership skills. Augustin, however, is a much better outside shooter and poorer at the rim player.

DX's year after analysis said that Augustin's biggest weaknesses were elevating on jump shots and finishing at the rim, and suggested that he need to do whatever he could to improve his explosiveness. Flynn is all explosiveness and rim finishing with a poorer outside shot than Augustin. In some ways, reading the DX retrospective on Augustin makes me think that Flynn is a superior prospect to Augustin, as his only real weakness (in comparison) is his lack of outside shot. Flynn's athleticism, first step, and finishing ability is superior to Augustin's, and his two point ability is on par and perhaps just below Augustin's. D.J's strength is his outside game, Flynn's his ability to take guys off the dribble and finish at the rim.

So, here's my question or thought about pairing Ricky and Flynn. You have one guy who looks like he'll be an all world passer and set-up guy, with adequate scoring capability (especially when he can take open jumpers, at least according to Lu). You have another guy who excels at getting to the rim, can also knock down some open jumpers, and can also dish. It may not look like you would expect, but I can begin to imagine a system where Ricky helps set up Flynn either cutting to the basket already or faking a cut and taking a jumper, etc. On the flip side, Flynn's ability to handle and pass the ball might help Ricky more offensively as he'll get a lot of open looks as defenses respect Flynn's rim finishing ability.

Is it perfect? Probably not, but with the right coach who is offensively open-minded and willing to tinker with his system to maximize his player's abilities (e.g. the anti-Wittman), Rubio and Flynn could lead an extremely dynamic and fast paced offense. Not sure where Al fits in with this, but these guys could play well together potentially as long as you don't rigidly restrict them to preconceived roles, and instead focus on using their strengths to maximize everyone else's strengths.