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Quick and dirty Rubio projections

So I read through Lu's Draft Outcast page on Rubio, and using his numbers I wanted to figure out what some per game values are for Rubio. We'll see how close I get whenever he get's around to posting them himself.

 

I had to make some assumptions, so it's not perfect (for example, I assumed Ricky would shoot 44% on two's), but I thought it would be fun to get a ball park estimate of what might be in store. The assists and TO's also seem way off, but maybe that just shows how great Rubio is at passing (and how aggressive).

Star-divide

So, here are the numbers, in points/assists/turnovers per minute increment.

12 minutes per game: 4.8 pts, 7.04 assists, 2.67 TO

24 min/game: 9.61 pts, 14.08 assists, 5.34 TO

36 min/game: 14.41 pts, 21.11 assists, 8 TO

 

The assists and TO's seem waaaaaay too high to me, but near as I can figure it Lu's Assist and Turnover rates are the number of assists/TOs per 100 possessions. I did some digging at arrived at the TWolves averaging 92 offensive possessions per game, which is what I used for making the calculation. If there's an error, someone please let me know and I'll update the numbers.

 

Even if it is correct, Rubio won't come anywhere near averaging those numbers. However, it probably is a clue at just how great his potential as a passer is in the NBA. Adding yet another two cents into the Flynn debate, Rubio doesn't project to be more than an outstanding scorer in the NBA, but he does project to be an outstanding passer and facilitator. Lu, in his page on Flynn, finds the closest correlation to Flynn is D.J. Augustin, who has similar physical comps, attitude and BB IQ comps, and leadership skills. Augustin, however, is a much better outside shooter and poorer at the rim player.

 

DX's year after analysis said that Augustin's biggest weaknesses were elevating on jump shots and finishing at the rim, and suggested that he need to do whatever he could to improve his explosiveness. Flynn is all explosiveness and rim finishing with a poorer outside shot than Augustin. In some ways, reading the DX retrospective on Augustin makes me think that Flynn is a superior prospect to Augustin, as his only real weakness (in comparison) is his lack of outside shot. Flynn's athleticism, first step, and finishing ability is superior to Augustin's, and his two point ability is on par and perhaps just below Augustin's. D.J's strength is his outside game, Flynn's his ability to take guys off the dribble and finish at the rim.

 

So, here's my question or thought about pairing Ricky and Flynn. You have one guy who looks like he'll be an all world passer and set-up guy, with adequate scoring capability (especially when he can take open jumpers, at least according to Lu). You have another guy who excels at getting to the rim, can also knock down some open jumpers, and can also dish. It may not look like you would expect, but I can begin to imagine a system where Ricky helps set up Flynn either cutting to the basket already or faking a cut and taking a jumper, etc. On the flip side, Flynn's ability to handle and pass the ball might help Ricky more offensively as he'll get a lot of open looks as defenses respect Flynn's rim finishing ability.

Is it perfect? Probably not, but with the right coach who is offensively open-minded and willing to tinker with his system to maximize his player's abilities (e.g. the anti-Wittman), Rubio and Flynn could lead an extremely dynamic and fast paced offense. Not sure where Al fits in with this, but these guys could play well together potentially as long as you don't rigidly restrict them to preconceived roles, and instead focus on using their strengths to maximize everyone else's strengths.

Poll
Do you want to see Ricky and Flynn play together?
Yes--They'll be fantastic and add a new wrinkle to the league
113 votes
Yes--more out of curiosity and hope for future trade value
121 votes
No--definition of redundancy and stupid drafting. Ugh.
24 votes
No--trade one of 'em before game 1 for a SG or SF.
64 votes
Don't care--after this draft, I'm an OKC fan.
7 votes

329 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 5 comments

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Yeah, that’s too high. I’m not sure, but to try this I think you first need to figure out how many of the Wolves’ possessions result in a FG (that is, are you applying his assist rate to ALL their possessions?). Rubio’s 30.2 assist rate projection would be an estimate of how many made FGs Rubio assisted on. Maybe that’s the hiccup?

Just quickly scanning basketball-reference, Andre Miller has an assist % of 30.2 and a TO % of 14.0 (Rubio’s projection is 30.6 assist and 11.6 to), and per 36 minutes he gets 6.5 assists and 2.4 turnovers.

by jianfu on Jun 28, 2009 3:42 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Ya

I was thinking it had to be something like that. As I said before, it really is a quick and dirty projection more for fun than anything else.

If nothing else I do have a new sense of appreciation for what his passing really might bring to the table, even if it was little, OK a lot, extreme.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jun 28, 2009 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I’m not convinced it’ll work, but I’m interested to see them try it. The offensive end doesn’t worry me nearly as much as the defensive end.

by saudagg on Jun 28, 2009 6:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Why can't the 3 point shooter be a future small forward?

With the current roster, Wally Szerbiak (with better D) would be a great fit.

by Rumblebee on Jun 28, 2009 10:35 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

I'm open to at least the defending the potential possibilities

I tend to be the opposite of Saudagg- It actually makes quite a bit of sense on D. Rubio’s best defensive skills are Off-Ball Defense and ability to disrupt passing lanes where as Flynn should be better on the ball because of his quickness. Rubio’s also clearly long enough to guard NBA 2’s. The Offense concerns are 100% based on shooting.

by Jose Cordoba on Jun 28, 2009 11:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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