The forgotten man
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 9:02 AM CDT
104 comments
Hey, remember this guy? In all likelihood, he's the Wolves' starting 2 guard in 09/10. What do we know about his game? Let's take a break from the Rubio circus and run through what Ellington has to offer below the fold.
Wayne Ellington comes to the Wolves with an overall resume very similar to the one brought here by Corey Brewer: MVP in the NCAA tourney, decent sized cog on an older team that challenged for the title several years in a row, not the main guy...you get the picture.
Resumes aside, Ellington is an amazingly different player than Brewer and he may even be good enough where we can point at his game and start to wonder if he was the reason why Demar DeRozan was not taken with the 6th selection in the draft, or why the Wolves did not trade down to grab the new Raptor after they took Ricky Rubio.
Ellington is an interesting player. He is capable of scoring in bunches (see his 34 points against Maryland) and he really came on late in the year against superior competition, averaging 18 ppg in conference play and the tourney. Playing at UNC also placed him in a setting where he would chalk up usage rates and team possession percentages on a similar scale to what he will likely be asked to do with the Wolves. Ellington was a second, third, or even fourth fiddle on his college team and that's what he'll be in the NBA. How did Ellington score the ball and how does he relate to his college peers? Let's start with DX's run down of some of his situational stats:
Amongst the top-10 college shooting guards we looked at, only Terrence Williams had fewer possessions to work with. The difference was as much as 50% compared to some prospects, who obviously had to shoulder much bigger offensive loads on far less talented teams. With that in mind, Ellington indeed ended up being one of the most efficient shooting guards in this draft, ranking first in field goal percentage (48%) and third in points per possession (1.04).
Because of how well Ellington was able to pick and choose his spots, he ends up looking excellent in a host of different categories. He for example ranks 3rd in his ability to finish around the basket, behind James Harden and Jermaine Taylor, 3rd in catch and shoot jumpers, behind K.C. Rivers and Jack McClinton, third in pull-up jumpers, behind Jack McClinton and Jodie Meeks and first in points per possession in transition opportunities.
Ellington's short-comings lie in his inability to create offense for himself, as he ranks third worst in isolation possessions generated behind two very poor ball-handlers in Paul Harris and K.C. Rivers, and his very related inability to draw fouls--which he did on just 9% of his used possessions. Ellington is obviously a finesse player who needs plays run for him in the half-court in order to be most effective, which means he'll definitely need to find the right situation in the NBA. Teams should not discount the skill-level he brings to the table as a pure scorer, though, as its clear that he wasn't such a highly regarded player coming out of high school for nothing.
For a team that just drafted Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn, a guy who needs plays run for him in the half-court may have found a home. One of the most impressive things about Ellington that is reflected in his pull-up and catch and shoot numbers is his amazingly quick release. Take a look at his highlight package from the national championship game against Michigan State:
The man can flat out shoot the ball in catch and shoot and pull-up situations. Ellington led all shooting guard prospects with a fantastic 61% true shooting percentage. He took 0.46 three pointers for every fga and he hardly turned the ball over, averaging only 1.9 to/40 minutes pace adjusted.
What Ellington didn't do was get to the line, create off the dribble, and generate a lot of blocks or steals. I wish we had some more situational numbers to plug in here. For instance, I would like to know what his shooting percentages are for isolation plays, catch and shoots, and pull up jumpers. I want to know what percentage of his total shots these situations account for. I'd also like to know how well he is able to shoot off a cut. Cuts, catch-and-shoot, pull-ups, and screens. These are the shots the Wolves will need from Ellington in an offense with Flynn and/or Rubio.
Let me go back to Ellington's improvement during the course of the year. It really was nice to see just how much he was able to take his game up to another level. Take a look at this chart from HoopsAnalyst:
|
Wayne Ellington |
2 pt pct |
3 pt pct |
P40 |
A/TO |
RSB40 |
|
Nov-Dec |
.507 |
.356 |
17.7 |
2.4 |
7.9 |
|
January |
.511 |
.391 |
19.5 |
1.3 |
6.9 |
|
February |
.563 |
.395 |
19.6 |
1.3 |
8.8 |
|
March-April |
.575 |
.518 |
20.2 |
1.7 |
5.9 |
The guy really put the pedal to the metal late in the year and he did so in a situation very similar to what he will be asked to do with the Wolves. You'd be pretty hard-pressed to find a better fit at the off guard for the Wolves with the 28th pick. That being said, the Wolves did have the 6th pick in the draft and they had a crack at every non-Harden and non-Evans shooting guard/small forward in the draft. Did they use their selections wisely? Could any pick have provided better value for the shooting guard position at #6?
In our next post we'll take a look at Ellington's competition: Stephen Curry, Terrence Williams, Jermaine Taylor, Chase Budinger, Gerald Henderson, Marcus Thornton, and Demar DeRozan.
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He sort of reminds me of Courtney Lee
which obviously would be a fantastic result.
I’m not sure about the idea that he’ll be the starting 2 guard this year. I certainly hope that he earns that role, but I think they will have to bring in someone who at least has shown the capability of playing in the NBA.
I appreciate the youth movement as much as anyone, but late first round draft picks often simply aren’t ready or aren’t capable of playing NBA basketball. It would be a disservice to him to put him in a situation he isn’t capable of handling.
Now, I liked that pick and hope that he can and does earn significant minutes this year.
But it isn’t enough to say “we don’t care about winning this year” and use that as a reason to run somebody out there who can’t handle it, and forcing him to endure constant failure.
Again, I’m not predicting constant failure, I’m just saying that late picks like this are not guarantees in terms of being able to play.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 9:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I put him at the starting SG...
…by default. There’s really no one else at this point who can shoot the ball. In the wrap up post on Ellington I’ll talk about how we shouldn’t expect to much from the guy but right now, he and Brewer are probably the only 2 guys on the roster who can play the 2. I wrote this with an eye to the status quo and I really, really, really hope that you’re right about brining someone else in or with a trade. Right now, it’s looking iffy and we could be watching a rookie backcourt for most of the year.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 9:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sure
and frankly, I have very little interest in seeing Brewer at the 2 for many minutes. I’m not convinced that Brewer can really play.
The roster is in quite a state of flux and strangeness right now. Ellington is the only 2 guard on the roster. I’ll dream my dreams of Rudy Fernandez.
If we are starting a Flynn/Ellington backcourt next season, things could get very ugly. Sub-20 wins ugly. I understand on the one hand that that might not be the worst thing long-term, but it isn’t without drawbacks, and not just temporary ones. At some point, all that losing starts to cement itself. I get the theory of going young and being bad, but I’m not sure it works so well in practice.
But as for Ellington, good luck to him.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Robson in-season, SnP off-season
That’s a combo platter any Wolves fan should appreciate.
Thanks for the awesome summary. My hunch is the cogs at 600 1st will spend plenty of time with your breakdown.
by A.K. Agikamik on Jun 30, 2009 9:30 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Thanks A.K.
Much appreciated.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 9:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good fit...
If we are able to keep Rubio, I think Ellington fits in well. He could be a Roger Mason or Raja Bell type of offensive player. Hopefully, he can become a good pro defender of off-guards, as well.
Most dribble-happy point guards (Nash, Paul) are complemented well by standing shooters. I tend to disagree with Eric’s Courtney Lee comparison. In the times I’ve seen these two, Ellington looks like a spot shooter, perhaps with a two-dribble jumper, while Lee runs all over, ala Reggie Miller or Rip Hamilton, and looks to slash as often as he looks to catch and shoot. Frankly, I think Lee is going to have the better career, but a guy like Ellington might be perfect next to Rubio.
by Andy G on Jun 30, 2009 9:36 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Well..
…the next post gets a bit more pessimistic. The more and more I look at it (and the more and more we start to hear about Flynn being the big stumbling block for Rubio), DeRozan was probably the right pick at 6 and they could have even had Ellington as well. Rubio, DeRozan, Ellington is a haul for the 1 positions the Wolves needed help with. DeRozan and Ellington both need a solid point in the 1/2 court as well as being able to run in transition. 2 fantastic fits for Rubio. They also would have spread the depth chart out a bit better.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 9:41 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yeah...
the Flynn pick seems pretty stupid, no matter how you slice it. Kahn has done enough good things, so far, to get the benefit of the doubt, but we’d all feel a little bit better if he took a wing player at 6, so Rubio’s only potential beef would be with Minneapolis/St Paul, and not his role on the team.
Hopefully, Rubio agrees to come over, and then all of a sudden, a trade involving Flynn magically appears out of nowhere…
by Andy G on Jun 30, 2009 9:59 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is exactly the problem
If they trade Flynn now (before Rubio commits), and then he doesn’t come over, the point guard situation is a disaster. And they have no exciting rookies for the fan base. Does Kahn promise a Flynn trade if Rubio commits? That seems unlikely, and would Rubio believe it? I don’t think that’s where Kahn is anyway.
If they wait for Rubio to commit to trade Flynn, he might not commit at all.
In either case, I think it’s going to be difficult to trade Flynn for what the Wolves think he’s worth. The Knicks apparently weren’t interested enough to trade up for him. There are a couple of teams that could be interested in a young point guard—the 76ers though they have Louis Williams. The Hawks maybe if they don’t bring Bibby back, or even if they do since they just traded 2 point guards.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 10:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
If they trade Flynn..
….and Rubio doesn’t come over this year, it’s 4 first rounders for Ellington. That’s McHale territory.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly
That’s completely untenable. They really can’t consider trading Flynn until they know Rubio is coming.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Couldn't they
Trade Flynn for the rights to Josh Childress?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 30, 2009 10:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes
Something with the Hawks could work. Although I get the feeling Kahn wants to bottom out a bit. So Childress probably isn’t in his plans.
by Jose Cordoba on Jun 30, 2009 12:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention...
Telfair will probably be our best point guard, next year, and the new coach may have a hard time finding minutes for both Rubio and Flynn. I think there would be crazy pressure from Kahn (not to mention the fans) to start Rubio, but Flynn might not enjoy being a 3rd String point guard in his rookie year.
by Andy G on Jun 30, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope for all parties that Bassy gets moved
You could be right that he’ll be the best pg on the roster, but he’s obviously getting squeezed out.
He isn’t some aging guy who’s going to be around to help out the young guys—he’s still young and trying to establish his career. At some level, it would be unfair to him if both Rubio and Flynn were here.
They will obviously need another pg with Rubio and Flynn at their ages, but I don’t think that guy should be Bassy.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 10:31 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I read a trade idea that I actually liked and think works for both parties a few days ago: Bassy for Bellinelli. The Warriors could use a real, pass-first PG given that they have zero of them, and we could really use the outside shooting Belinelli would bring. Both guys are flawed but have useful NBA skills and would fit better on their new teams.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 10:34 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well, the problem there
is that the Warriors just traded for Speedy Claxton and Acie Law.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I must have missed that amidst the speculation that Donnie Walsh is going to call David Kahn to discuss the possibility of Rubio being available for a flaming bag of dog poo.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
Jamal Crawford for Law and Claxton
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 1:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Oh yeah, I did see it. I just dismissed it as boring and promptly forgot every name except Crawford. I have a hard time keeping track of inconsequential moves by other teams. Good call!
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 2:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Teams the Could Use a PG
Indiana
- Jarrett Jack and Travis Diener behind TJ Ford
LA Clippers
- Baron Davis and no one
Phoenix
- Nash, Barbosa, then no one
Portland
- Steve Blake, Bayless
San Antonio
- Tony Parker and no backup
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope we don't trade either Rubio or Flynn
I’m not as pessimistic as some of you about the idea of Rubio and Flynn co-existing on a team. It’s not like they have to be on the court together all the time. I think we should at least be patient to see what Rubio is going to do until we start envisioning trade scenarios with Flynn.
by TimAllen on Jun 30, 2009 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I was thinking
on trying to find a home for Telfair. Maybe a Telfair + Pekovic to Portland for Outlaw. Not sure if the value is right, but if Portland is serious about signing Hedo, they are going to have a glut of SF in Hedo, Outlaw and Batum, and I’d assume they’d want to keep Batum since he’s cheaper and more of a glue guy.
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ahh...my fault then
I’d do that Telfair + Pekovic for Outlaw deal. I think that’s a good deal for both parties.
by TimAllen on Jun 30, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Ditto.
The Wolves could definitely use a do-everything SF.
by princelyfrank on Jun 30, 2009 11:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You know that deal helps Portland so much
because it saves them 1.5 million in salary for next year. They have some space, but are scrapping for more. If the Wolves can afford it (depends on where the cap is set next week), then I bet you could do that deal without including Pekovic.
Seriously. That 1.5 million is very valuable to Portland. It depends on whether the Wolves wind up under the cap or not. They should be under a couple of million, even counting the Rubio hold, but it will be close.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 11:27 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
bassy...
…can’t go back to the jail blazers. it will never happen. they are trying to cut salary however. frye was just non-tendered and i think they’re trying to get to a point where they can go after hedo.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 11:35 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They would be on the hook for Bassy’s player option in 10-11 so in long term Salary Portland would owe $5.6 Million on Bassy versus $4 Million on Outlaw.
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 11:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, I understand that
but they are on the edge this off-season. Maybe they wouldn’t do it, though I could see it. As for going back to Portland, I don’t know. Stranger things have happened. I always undervalue our assets in trades, but in this case, I wonder if that money this year doesn’t have a lot of value to the Blazers.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I understand that you Understand that
But in all seriousness, a trade like this with Portland will come down to who they are targeting in Free Agency. If it’s Hedo, we may have a play with a guy like Teflair, if they instead focus on Hinrich or Andre Miller, we likely don’t have a play.
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yep
True.
I think Hedo really works for them, though wanting to upgrade the point makes sense as well. But if you have Roy and Hedo, both of whom are used to having the ball in their hands, do you really need a traditional, on the ball point? I mean teams often win without a ball dominant point guard (see the Lakers).
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
No You wouldn't
But I don’t think you would be acquiring Bassy to install him as a starter. The benefit would be depth behind Blake if you don’t trust Bayless, and more salary cap room in the one year they are likely to have enough to pursue a top quality free agent.
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
True
If both Flynn and Rubio average 30 minutes a night, that’s only 12 minutes a night they’d actually have to play together.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 30, 2009 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm not pessimistic...
..about it 3-4 years from now but getting there is the problem.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Personally
I think the Wolves should make a play at Jerry Stackhouse with Cardinal and Telfair. Dallas wants to move him anyway and they’d get an expiring and a PG as insurance if Kidd decides to leave. The Wolves would have a veteran SG without taking on additional salary for 2010.
by TimAllen on Jun 30, 2009 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He was injured most of last year...
And is likely to retire.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 30, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, thank you
I forgot about that.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 10:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Another HUGE problem with the Flynn pick...
was that Lawson fell to 18. At that draft position, it’s a whole lot easier to sell the “best player available” nonsense than it was at #6, one pick after Rubio.
Rubio/Lawson
DeRozan/Ellington
Brewer/Gomes
Love
Jefferson
That’s better than what we have.
Maybe we’re about to Kahn some team into taking Flynn for a shooting guard.
by Andy G on Jun 30, 2009 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Louis Williams is more of a Combo Guard than a PG.
Counting out him being your point is the equivalent of Foye being your point. Although this is pretty unimportant to the issue at hand.
by Jose Cordoba on Jun 30, 2009 12:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I can accept the fact...
…that Flynn was their BPA and that they went with that, but I’d just disagree with the idea that he was the BPA in that spot or that they shouldn’t have had a contingency for 1 in a 100 scenario that lands them their #1 guy.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 10:17 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
SNP
Flynn was not just the BPA – he was the last player left in tier 2.
We forget – this was by all accounts – one of the thinnest drafts in the last 5 years. There top of the board was not full of options. To drop down to the 3rd tier to grab a player at #6 would have been a significant departure from the strategy Kahn’s trying to implement.
I think we are underestimating Flynn’s ability to play and, to somewhat the same extent, overestimating Rubio’s. Both have significant upsides – and significant holes in their games.
Rubio has a chance to be fantastic – but pardon me if I don’t see it happening right away in MN with Big Al and Love playing major minutes. There is a tremendous difference in style that needs to be worked out.
by Just A Fan on Jun 30, 2009 9:34 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hope they're right..
…and I’m way wrong. It was a very thin draft. I really hope Flynn has the goods. I really like the guy and I think he’ll be a hard nosed player that will quickly become one of my favorites.
I think they missed the boat on DeRozan and he would have fit on a few levels. I don’t see Rubio working out right away either. He’s still an 18 year old Euro point who can’t shoot and turns the ball over a lot. I’ve never been his biggest fan but it is kind of fun to think that this is the biggest player the Wolves have gotten their hands on since KG. That part of it won’t change until he steps on the court. Take away the hype factor, and I’ll be more than happy with Flynn + Rubio turned into a higher 2010 pick. That being said, I’d really, really, really like to see Rubio play with Love.
I also agree that most people who are giving Kahn a hard time don’t look at the next few picks. Curry is a point. Hill is a reach and a 4. DeRozan…well, I think he was the right pick. Jennings is a point. Williams and Henderson are late 1st round picks in a normal year. That draft wasn’t very good and…well, if they think Flynn was the BPA, I think they did the right thing. I just wish they would have had a Flynn trade scenario ready to go for the 1 and 100 chance in a life time.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 9:47 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Just remember
This could have been your team still, going into next year.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 30, 2009 11:22 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Who the starting 2 and 3 are going to be is a mystery
Gomes is really the only option right now at the 3. I like him better at the 4 based on comparing his last two seasons and his play once Al went down. I also like Gomes closer to 15- 18 minutes a night than 35 minutes a night.
Brewer’s a Wild-Card- he’s the only hope against Elite Scorers on the Defensive End currently on the roster. If his shooting could approach average- he’s the starting 2.
Ellington- will get minutes. He’s by far the most capable shooter on the roster.
The best hope is Rubio comes over allowing Flynn to play on the ball on D and off the ball on Offense.
by Jose Cordoba on Jun 30, 2009 9:41 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
All he had to do..
….was say the words “Demar DeRozan” with the 6th pick and I think we’re sitting here with pictures of Rubio holding a Wolves jersey. The more I think about it the more it bugs me. The Wolves had 2 points (Curry, Flynn) and a power forward (Hill) on the board behind them going to GSW, the Knicks, and themselves. They landed the golden goose and they got cute. I can see what Kahn wants 2-4 years from now with a mature 6’4/5" Rubio and a 6’0" Flynn in the backcourt. The problem is getting there. There should have been a contingency plan for the 1 in a 100 situation. At least a phone call asking if Rubio would come over with a back court of Curry or Flynn.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Maybe...
That is a big unknown there, SnP. We do not know if this would have played out any differently had Demar been chosen #6. We really just do not know what the major hangup is right now outside of the buyout. Which would have been easier for Rubio to swallow had he gone top 3, but now…things are different.
Secondly, Demar is someone I liked a lot going into the draft, but not somebody worthy of the #6. If anything, we should have tried to trade down to Toronto’s or NY’s spot to draft him. That was my dream scenario when the draft unfolded the way it did.
by Grover M on Jun 30, 2009 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Right -
Maybe we find out that drafting Flynn is the straw that broke the camel’s back and drives Rubio away. But I don’t know that we are there yet.
Right now we are in a “Favre-to-Vikings” type of rumor/innuendo reporting. It could very well be that we wake up tomorrow to see Rubio holding up that Wolves jersey, with his buyout renegotiated in advance of 7/1. (Or maybe we don’t and he is on his way out.)
The flip side is what if Rubio didn’t come, and we picked Derozan. Then Bassy is running the point and Wolves fans might see Flynn make all-rookie while Derozan tries to smooth out the rough edges.
by Punisher#8 on Jun 30, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Agreed...
…it is a big unknown. It’s just my guess.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 10:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
My gut feeling is slightly different -
though maybe I am talking myself into this. I think Rubio is an 18-year old kid who is better at playing hoops and not as interested in business/public posturing. The agent is driving, and Rubio laces up wherever he needs to.
With his Spanish team being local, it seems like a pretty big leap on his part to leave for the NBA much less sue the local team. You would think that he would like to make the leap this year now that he is this deep in.
But it probably comes down to the financials and how that shakes out. If that doesn’t line up, nothing else can.
by Punisher#8 on Jun 30, 2009 10:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Contingency
I agree, although given Kahn’s prior moves and comments about them, I have to believe that they had talked about what they would do if the best players available were all PGs. Perhaps Curry could’ve been a SG, it just doesn’t make any sense to me that they wouldn’t have foreseen the potential for the best players left to them being a bunch of ball-dominant PGs. That’s just the way this draft stacked up.
I also agree that Derozen could’ve been a better selection at 6, but I would also say that at this point in the rebuilding process the right thing to do is not to abandon your strategy. The strategy in this case is getting talent that you think has the opportunity to be good starters and potentially stars out of the 5 and 6 picks. That Rubio fell to them is icing on the cake.
I guess they might have been thinking that either Harden or Evans would fall to them. Harden would’ve made the most sense, but I kinda get the impression now that OKC was always going to draft him. So that would leave Evans, and then you’d again be posed with the same issue of drafting two guys who need the ball in their hands to be effective. I understand Curry could play well without the ball in his hands, but I think it would cause a host of other matchup issues.
The long and short of it for me, now, is that we need to get a Head Coach. We need a guy who can start massaging those egos and start painting pictures of innovative offense where both guards can star and Ellington is knocking down 3’s and Big Al and Love are dominating the paint. We need a guy who can motivate them, understand them, and who has the authority and vision to make promises to them about how they’ll succeed—about how he gets their game and can make this work for them.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 30, 2009 10:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I admire their process...
…just not the idea that Flynn was at the top of the board with that pick. Ultimately, that’s what it boils down to for me. DeRozan was the pick with Rubio already there and Harden off the board.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm still giving the FO the benefit of the doubt on the Flynn pick
1. They didn’t know what kind of trade offers might come up after the Rubio pick was made
2. It gave the Wolves another chip in the negotiations with Rubio
3. It gave the Wolves another chip in the negotiations with other teams for the right to Rubio
4. It gave Rubio another chip in the negotiations with Jovenhut (“They picked another point guard—I’m coming back unless we reach a good deal.”)
5. I don’t think there were very many decent non-PG players after 5th pick. DeRozan is a question mark, and could be a more well-mannered version of J.R. Rider.
6. If Flynn really is the stumbling block to bringing Rubio over, how hard would it be to trade Flynn? How do we even know if Flynn is going to be an improvement over just keeping Bassy as the back-up?
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
by PoorDick on Jun 30, 2009 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Good points. I think that's fair..
….and, the best argument of all is that Rubio will probably increase in value and next year’s draft looks to be stacked. Pekovic + Rubio + 3 possible 1st rounders = Cole Aldrich + Evan Turner or John Wall? My only fear in all of this is that they burn a bridge with Flynn or his agent.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It would be the Wolves luck
To finally win the Lottery and have the consenus #1 be John Wall a PG with Flynn on the roster and still holding the rights to Rubio. A fun problem to have, but an interesting dilemma none the less.
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Worse yet
what kind of buyout will Calipari and Kentucky require to relinquish the rights to Wall?
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
by PoorDick on Jun 30, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
probably right around $500k
;)
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is where Kahn needs to earn his keep.
He has 15-18 players and their agents to manage. Time to sell the vision.
by Punisher#8 on Jun 30, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Why couldn't Brewer be DeRozan...
At least looking at where their games will be at for next year? Neither will impress with their shooting, and Brewer runs the court really well. I still think there’s a chance that the game hasn’t slowed down enough for him mentally and he’s been running around and playing a hyper speed to overcompensate. To me, maybe the FO said, this guy’s iffy to become a great player, and his game offensively is currently similar to Brewer’s.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 30, 2009 10:47 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
mid range jumper
Derozan can shoot the ball. He also already has better handles and he can rebound. I don’t think he’ll ever be a great player but he could be a version of Gomes at the 2/3 with better athleticism.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 11:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
We tend to forget that Brewer was once a pretty good shooter too...
in three years at Florida he shot 48% and around 35% from 3pt. In his sophomore and junior seasons he hit a total of 82 threes. In one very up and down season at USC Derozan hit just 6 from beyond. The main argument for Derozan is potential potential potential but Brewer is barely 23 and a full 3 inches taller than Derozan. I will concede that since entering the league Brewer’s shooting has been awful but its still way too early to give up on this guy.
by SuperVillian on Jun 30, 2009 3:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's true
With that said, Brewer’s shooting has a ton of potential as we saw in the Final Four this year, where he was named Most Outstanding Player for those who forgot. His shooting mechanics are clean and very fluid, with a crisp, quick release, good balance, and the ability to get his shot off almost whenever he wants thanks to his height and length. He shot around 70% from 16-17 feet out from what we charted, and about 60% from the NBA 3. Those are decent, but definitely improvable numbers, although it’s not hard to envision him becoming a very solid NBA shooter considering his mechanics and work ethic. His shot can flatten out at times in terms of the arc he gets on it, something that he’s already working on from what we were told. He put up a ton of jump-shots in the time we saw him, and was pretty streaky overall.
Amazing that this was the scouting report on Brewer in 2007. Guy sounds closer to a star than a scrub.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 30, 2009 4:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He’s like a fine wine! I really hope he comes back and regains his confidence quickly. In my subjective opinion he was really looking comfortable before his injury. He just looked more in control and like he was worrying less about his shot. His numbers only show incremental improvements, but I think he was on his way to a decent season.
I’m still holding out hope he’ll be a great glue guy down the road. I can see him as one of those all-around, 12/6/3/1.5 steals type of guys who don’t really create anything, but finish on the break, hit open jumpers, play tough D and make smart plays. Rubio could be awesome for him.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The best part of Rubio for me...
is that I believe he gives Brewer new life. Brewer excels at transition, so Rubio and Love should be able to give him plenty of easy, confidence boosting buckets. Brewer is a tenacious defender, and at the SG spot, he matches up very well with everyone in the West and could be an outstanding contributor by keeping Kobe, Manu, Roy, Terry, et al at 80% of their expected output. Rubio may not have great lateral quickness, buy his length and knack to steal the ball with Brewers length at the 2 makes the perimeter D very respectable. Finally, if Brewer’s confidence in transition leads to an ability to knock down open J’s, then the Wolves have the Tayshaun Prince of shooting guards.
by gill0137 on Jun 30, 2009 1:15 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This, I think, is the most important difference between Flynn and Rubio.
The potential for an encouraging transformation in some of the younger guys (e.g. Brewer, Love) is sky high with Rubio’s added presence. The same may be true of Flynn, but the way Rubio could impact the games of the less “creative” players on our roster is more immediately apparent with Rubio.
by TheH on Jun 30, 2009 4:28 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I think DeRozan was a tier lower than Flynn and Curry, at least he was in my book; so you can’t take DeRozan just for the fit. Can’t.
If they had traded down .. then .. but nobody knew we were getting Rubio .. there’s plenty of time to work something out. We got Smith, Gomes, Brewer, Carney, Bassy .. those are all players that have got some skill, though not much, but enough to maybe get us a decent 2-guard.
Beater of the early Thabeet drum ... but not so much of the late one
by Wim (Belgium) on Jun 30, 2009 10:11 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm more about...
…DeRozan in terms of BPA. We had this as our non-Rubio top tier:
1. Blake Griffin: 45/18.196 (63.196-big)
2. Stephen Curry: 42.6/13.203 (55.803-guard)
3. James Harden: 38.4/10.393 (48.793-guard)
4. Demar Derozan: 31.3/13.879 (45.179-wing)
5. Ty Lawson: 35.275/10.616 (45.668-guard)
6. Hasheem Thabeet: 42.7/14.703 (57.4-big)
7. DeJuan Blair: 37.825/15.578 (53.403-big)
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 10:19 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What about ...
Rodney Carney? I don’t ever see his name mentioned anymore. Is he gone for sure? It seems we are awfully thin at the wing and, although his skill set is limited, I could see him streaking for a lot of dunks off of Rubio lob passes. Also, he might have been our hottest 3-pt shooter for much of last year. We certainly need more of that.
by ogishkemuncie on Jun 30, 2009 10:16 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Maybe S&P would like to forget about Rodney entirely. I was going to refer you to the Canis contract info page, but Carney isn’t listed there.
I believe that the team has an option to extend his contract for this season. Kahn will likely defer making that decision as long as possible in the light of all of the possible trades to evaluate.
by levi_mn on Jun 30, 2009 10:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Wasn't that option during last season?
I thought we passed on that, making him an unrestricted free agent.
by Andy G on Jun 30, 2009 10:45 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He's unrestricted...
With the MO being roster reconstruction, the only way he’d be back is if the Wolves needed another wing and he was still on the market in September.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 30, 2009 10:49 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
he's a ufa
they didn’t pick up his option last year
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 11:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not until 11:01PM tonight.
But it’s OK to be prescient…
http://www.twincities.com/sports/ci_12722166
Collins, Ollie, and Williams also become unrestricted free agents tonight.
by levi_mn on Jun 30, 2009 6:53 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Is Rubio/rubio's camp bluffing mayn
i mean, it dosent make any sense in mah eyes ta go back ta europe. de second NBA cpntract is what he should be after, an coming over now makes sense. i thank dey juss bluffin hopin dat Khan moves him to a bigger market mayn, which i ont thank is gon happen. call de bluff baby!
MAYN HOL UP!
by MAYNHOLUP on Jun 30, 2009 11:23 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Chad Ford During a Chat on Ricky Rubio
“I’m not even sure Rubio is in the league. From what I can gather there’s a very real possibility he will go back to Europe, sign a big contract with a team like Real Madrid or Efes Pilsen and play the next 2 or 3 years there. I’m not sure whether David Kahn is clever or naive. Drafting Rubio and Flynn did give him a little leverage, but it also ticked off the Rubios. If he or Flynn isn’t traded, I don’t think we’ll see him in the NBA for the next few years.
I think Kahn wants to keep Rubio … but he’s going about it the wrong way. Telling the kid that they can wait is the wrong tack. They needed to recruit him and instead they slapped him around a bit. And … I love how everyone is misspelling Kahn’s name Khan … like the Star Trek’s Wrath of Khan. “Khannnnnnnnnnnnnnn!!!!!”"
by TimAllen on Jun 30, 2009 12:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Followed up with
Jason (Minneapolis)
Since the Kings were high on Flynn predraft, would they consider a deal including Kevin Martin postdraft? Maybe Flynn, Pekovic, a 2010 #1 (Wolves will probably have three) plus expirings for Martin? Kings get a true PG plus significant cap room in 2010 and Wolves save face by getting the scoring wing to play with Rubio.
Chad Ford
That’s not a bad idea and one that’s possible … I do think the Kings would move Martin for the right offer and Tyreke Evans is more of a two … Get on the phone Khaaaaaaaaaaaaannnnnnnnnnnn!
by Ebomb on Jun 30, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kevin Martin would be a great get
He’s been hurt for chunks of the last 2 seasons, but he can absolutely score. Shoots and makes 3s at a high volume, and gets to the line very well (10 FTAs a game last year).
He also has a very favorable contract. 4 more seasons topping out just under 13 million. I don’t think Flynn and parts does it. With Jason Thompson around, I don’t know that they would be interested, but if I could, I’d do Flynn, Love, Charlotte’s pick, and Cardinal for Martin.
Going with Jefferson, Martin, and Rubio as your 3 main guys is something I would consider.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That's too much...
Martin’s not a 13 mil/yr player, and I definitely wouldn’t include Love in that deal.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 30, 2009 12:56 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You think so?
Maybe. I’m often accused of undervaluing our players.
But I disagree that Martin isn’t worth his contract. He’s between 10.1 and 12.9 a year for the next 4 years. I think that’s totally fair for him. A lot of guys make a lot more and aren’t worth it.
He’s also Sac’s identity (not that that’s necessarily something to brag about, given how terrible they have become). He is their star, though, and would have to get back something they could sell to make it worth it.
I don’t think Flynn is enough.
by Eric in Madison on Jun 30, 2009 1:13 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
slapped him around?
my god, kahn has said two things: he’s the starting point the second he walks in the door and that they will work with the family to make whatever decision it is they need to make.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
change of sentiment...
Has been pretty extreme here of late. I can’t believe how many people are now thinking that the selection of Flynn is (at least one of) the big sticking points on Rubio signing. Two things to consider:
1) This is a good “out” for Rubio. Instead of saying he doesn’t want to come to Mpls and looking like an a-hole, he can say he wants minutes and doesn’t like that we picked another pg. Thus, he’s doing it for basketball reasons, not because Mpls is one of the worst teams in the league with an extraordinary track record of mismanagement.
2) Kahn had good reason to believe that Rubio would not come here, and drafted Flynn as not only an insurance policy, but as the probable pg of the future. You think Kahn didn’t put the feelers out to Ricky’s people before the draft? Do you think he doesn’t realize what an unattractive destination Mps is?
It goes without saying that we’d deal Flynn if Rubio comes here. It is just beyond ridiculous that selecting Flynn is an impediment to getting this done. And as far as Flynn’s value…I am pretty sure we could get a DeRozan or better talent for him today if we decide to move him. I still think Kahn played this correctly and that we are holding some good cards.
by DougW on Jun 30, 2009 12:40 PM CDT reply actions 1 recs
good points..
….I guess where I stand is that even if it’s an out for the agents it can still be a factor whether we believe it or not. That being said, I do think there is a kernel of truth to them being a back court that doesn’t work (right away) and that this would scare off a guy with options. Despite my belief that Flynn shouldn’t been their BPA, I do agree that he played this about as well as he could have if Flynn was his BPA. 24 win teams take the best guys on their board regardless of the position.
Good points on the Flynn thing. I hadn’t thought of the out angle before and I hadn’t seen the change of sentiment in that light before. Ultimately, the bad guy here is Rubio and his agent. The Wolves took the 2 best guys on their list and they should have them on their team because both guys went into the draft knowing full well anything could happen. Call the bluff and stay the course. Good stuff and thanks for putting this back on the tracks.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Exactly, I am not sure if I had Flynn rated this high either, and I am a little leery of the way he shot up the boards. I feel as if it may have a lot more to do with him having a magnetic personality and a good ability to sell himself, than his game and pro prospects.
Actually this could be a good study…are first impression usually correct…do the guys that shoot up the draft boards in the preceding weeks tend to underperform their draft order….and vice versa do the guys that fall at the last minute tend to underperform their draft order. Any of you stats guys want to run with that one.
As far as Kahn’s “plan” to play the two of them together…I don’t think anyone should waste time and effort thinking about this. It is pretty clearly BS to try to gain leverage with trading partners, and I really don’t think anyone is buying it.
by DougW on Jun 30, 2009 1:05 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Flynn is an interesting case as far as stock goes. Personally, I’m not as worried about his situation compared to most workout warriors (a la Joe Alexander), because I think his early draft stock was based more around questions of his size as anything else.
I mean, his stats were always pretty solid and everyone knew he was clutch, charismatic and really explosive, so I don’t think there was a question that he had athleticism and skills. What was prevalent in about every scouting report I read, though, were worries about his size. Before the combine, it seemed a unanimous perception that he was worringly small, think <6’. Then comes combine time and he measures out much better than expected, along the lines of 6’1" in shoes with a 6’4 wingspan. I’m sure putting his personality and charisma on display at workouts and interviews added to his rise, but this is a case where measurements probably brought him to par with a lot of other prospects first by quieting those size questions.
This is in comparison to a guy like Joe Alexander who showed a tantalizing enough all-around package of athleticism that he managed to distract scouts from the fact that his game was underdeveloped. Flynn never had that worry.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 1:58 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Here is the PG measurement page
http://www.draftexpress.com/nba-pre-draft-measurements/?year=2009&sort2=DESC&draft=0&pos=1&sort=5
Flynn’s standing reach is pretty poor but his wingspan and standing vert are both above average. His standing vert height is 5th amongst point guards. I wish the standing reach was a bit higher but when you’re 6 feet tall and can flat jump to allow you to hit a spot nearly 9 inches above the rim, you make up for a bit of the lost standing height. The wingspan will help on defense.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s interesting to peruse all of the PG’s in the database by those numbers. I’d have to say that while Flynn’s reach isn’t amazing, it’s decent enough considering his other attributes.
Interesting fact: Flynn gets higher than Randy Foye both standing and off a run, and his reach is only 1.5" lower despite being 3 inches shorter. Randy had weird measurements.. we should have known he wouldn’t be able to handle SG’s right off the bat. He’s got only decent size for the PG spot, and is waaaay undersized at the 2.
As for Flynn, I think most of your defensive impact as a PG comes from pressuring the ball and being able to move your feet on the perimeter. It would be great to have a guy who can switch on to bigger players and not get abused, but there are only so many Kidds and Hinrichs. At least he seems to have solid strength, and I like what I heard about him guarding Evans in workouts. Overall I think he has a nice set of tools – better than I thought before the combine. If his effort level at man D is as good as we’re hearing I think he could be a lot of fun to watch and a big boon to the team compard to what we’re used to.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 3:08 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There was...
… an interesting piece on this issue in a recent True Hoop where Abbot noted that length, not quickness, was one of the better deterrents for the Tony Parkers of the world— guys like Ariza and so forth are just as effective guarding the speedsters as another speedster in the same club, and perhaps even more so. One of the marvelous things would be to be able to trot out Rubio and Brewer at the 1 and 2 with a skilled 3 so that Rubio could switch to a shooting guard and let Brewer harass the Chris Pauls of the world. Now, this scenario doesn’t work with every team for match-up reasons, but in certain cases it would be a huge advantage to exploit.
by TheH on Jun 30, 2009 4:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
great piece
very informative, thanks!
cromscorner.blogspot.com
by Crom on Jun 30, 2009 12:42 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
no problem
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 12:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Any reactions to Paul Harris becoming (for the summer) a Wolf?
S-n-P, you should be elated at this turn of events. Apologies if this discussion is going on elsewhere.
by TheH on Jun 30, 2009 2:21 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm really happy..
….with that move and I’m hopeful that Harris can stick with the club. He has all the tools to be a good defender as well as a good role-playing rebounder at the position. With Brewer and Ellington being the only 2 guards on the team right now, I think he has a solid chance at sticking.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 2:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't get to see him much...
… during the season, and although I’ve read up on his bio over at DX, can someone give me a better idea of what to expect in this guy? I know comparisons to other (more known) NBA players are only so helpful, but what box should I file this guy in for the time being?
by TheH on Jun 30, 2009 4:35 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
DX...
..had the right one: Dahntay Jones.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 5:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It’s thinking about this whole Flynn as BPA vs. Derozan issue that really makes me wish that either or both of Evan Turner and Al-Farouq Aminu had stayed in this year’s draft. Sigh. The prospects of a Rubio/Turner draft are amazing..
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Jun 30, 2009 3:51 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Yes..
….guys like Aminu, Turner, and Monroe killed this draft. Absolutely killed it.
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Those bastards.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jun 30, 2009 4:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I know...
…what were they thinking? ; )
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by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 30, 2009 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You guys have already forgotten about Ellington
in his very own thread, even.
by levi_mn on Jun 30, 2009 5:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Wow! What a totally amazing, excellent discovery!
I hate Pod Six. I don't even know why we have a Pod Six. Total suck pod.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 30, 2009 5:45 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
As an addendum:
If Ellington ever hits a game-winner, can we have a post full of nothing but Wayne’s World quotes?
I hate Pod Six. I don't even know why we have a Pod Six. Total suck pod.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Jun 30, 2009 5:50 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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