Non-flashy free agents and roster questions
With all of the free agency related news flying around the league (Hedo, Sheed, Ariza, Artest, etc) it's pretty easy to forget that there are some lesser names out there that could realistically help the Wolves should they be able to shed a roster space or two before the start of the season. Right now the Wolves have a completely unbalanced roster and I just cannot imagine a situation where they enter the season with the current status quo. If there is one piece of information that points towards a preordained trade on draft night, it is the fact that the Wolves currently sport a roster with 9 bigs, 4 points and Corey Brewer and Wayne Ellington. Something has to give. This isn't a roster you can take on a tour through 82 games. It is an absolute disaster waiting to happen at the 2/3.
Below the fold we'll talk about players that could fill the gaps as well as possible solutions for the roster imbalance problem.
- Bassy/Flynn/Brown
- Ellington/Brewer
- Gomes/Brewer
- Love/Songaila/Smith/Cardinal/Pecherov
- Jefferson/Thomas/Madsen
The problem the Wolves have over the summer is that they are stacked at the 4/5 with expiring contracts that will likely be more valuable during the season than they will be right now. Thomas, Cardinal, Madsen and Smith give the Wolves @ $19.1 mil in expiring deals. If teams are looking to clear space for the 2010 free agency madness, the Wolves can give them nearly $20 mil (even more if you throw in Brewer and Gomes) of expiring deals in exchange for contracts running to 2011 and beyond...hopefully plus a pick or two. Remember, these contracts are not valuable in terms of cap-clearing right now. They mature in value between the opening day of the season and the trading deadline.
Beyond the expiring deals, the Wolves don't exactly have a mountain of realistically movable assets. Jefferson and Love aren't going anywhere. Brewer is coming off an injury so he's probably not going anywhere. That leaves Gomes and Flynn as the most likely movable assets. Could the Wolves move one of these assets for a legit 3? Would they? What about in conjunction with an expiring contract? Can the team move Flynn with no guarantee of Rubio coming over this year or the next?
Long story short, I believe it is very likely that we fans are looking at the players who will be on the starting day roster. I wouldn't rule out a Bobby Brown and/or Pecherov buyout, but beyond that, the Wolves will be hard-pressed to make a deal to balance their roster, especially at the 2/3. Unless the Wolves have something in mind for Flynn, I think they are much better served sitting on their expirings until near the trade deadline in an attempt to get a pick and a player from teams looking to clear 2010 cap space....or, they could sit tight and use that cap money for themselves.
What can they do in the meantime? First, Brown and Pecherov should be bought out ASAP. Brown is due to make $736k and Pecherov is on line for $1.5 mil. They are probably the two easiest buyouts on the team. Second, sign Paul Harris and Lee Cummard.
We have gone on and on about Harris for a while now but he would give the team a solid young prospect at the 2/3 who rebounds well, has good defensive potential and who can slash to the hoop and play in transition. Cummard is old for his class (thanks to a 2 year Mormon mission) but he is a remarkably versatile and effective player. We had Cummard ranked as the 6th best guard in the draft. He has a TS% of 61.6%, a 16.2 DR%, a serviceable assist rate, a fantastic TORate (12.1), he gets a lot of blocks for his position and he shoots .558 from 2 while having solid 3 point range. His big negatives are his previously mentioned age (24) and he's 185 lbs at 6'7". That's Brewer territory.
Both Harris and Cummard could likely be signed for single-year minimum deals. They would cost very little to acquire and they would do nothing to hurt the team's long-term plans for the expiring contracts and remaining assets. If they work out, the Wolves have found a diamond in the rough. If they don't, no harm, no foul. Here is what the rotation would look like with a Brown/Pecherov buyout and a Harris/Cummard pickup:
- Bassy/Flynn/
- Ellington/Brewer/Harris/Cummard
- Gomes/Brewer/Cummard/Harris
- Love/Songaila/Smith/Cardinal/
- Jefferson/Thomas/Madsen
The remaining roster spot will depend on Mr. Rubio. If he comes over, you're set with tremendous flexibility going forward. If he doesn't, then...well, here's hoping that Ben Woodside has a good summer league and would be willing to take a 1-year deal.
Wrapping things up, the important thing for the Wolves right now is to a) maintain a large amount of expiring deals for the 2009/10 trade deadline, b) not pay a lot in both money and years for players to fill out this year's roster imbalance, and c) not take on any large salaries unless the player is of considerable skill and in the same age range as the current core group of players (18-24).
The Wolves are not going to contend for the playoffs this year. They're just not. What they are going to do is continue to marshal their assets in such a way that will give them maximum flexibility moving forward towards a 2011 or 2012 competitive lift-off date (when their core is 20-26). Paul Harris and Lee Cummard give them an opportunity to fill the two 12-18 mpg slots at the 2/3 that they simply do not have at the present time without breaking the bank or sacrificing anything approaching a useful asset.
Are we missing any players that would also fit this bill? Who else should the Wolves consider? Should they sign a veteran player like Keith Bogans or Shannon Brown?
What say you?
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I wonder where
the backcourt leadership comes from?
Adding Cummard and Harris to Flynn/Brewer/Ellington?Telfair puts inordinate responsibility on Telfair and Brewer with 4 rookies for company. Sure some will swim and others will sink, but a veteran presence to provide guidance and a level head during a 10 game losing streak in late February (when young players start to feel the pinch) could be invaluable.
Bogans and Brown could play a role but I wonder whether someone like Marquis Daniels or Matt Barnes may be options. Barnes would be more of a 3 of course.
a veteran probably has to come via trade
Looking at the list of free agent SGs, there are not any players that I’d particularly like to see on the Wolves in terms of offering some veteran backcourt leadership. Certainly none that I’d project as starters. I’ve opined before that I think that the starting SG nod goes to Brewer over Ellington if he’s ready, but I’d rather open with a solid vet out there.
The issue with trades is (as SnP pointed out) is that all of the expiring contracts gain value after the season begins, precluding a training camp. `Course it might help toi have a coach before training camp, eh?
Oh and another thing..
More than happy to give Pecherov a one way ticket to Kiev and buyout Brown.
That roster is 14 by my count. Could we have our cake and eat it too by signing Cummard, Harris and a vet of some description?
it would depend on how much the vet could...
…be had for. I think they want to operate on the cheap this year without taking on any salary that would mess with 10 and 11.
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That will really depend...
On how fast teams stop shopping after the big names are gone. In both baseball and football offseasons, there were good players who didn’t have contracts up to the start of camp. If that happens in the NBA, then there’ll be a guy who’ll take the minutes and a one-year deal. Bogans would be a good example. Over at TwolvesBlog they’re discussing Iverson but I’m not for that, especially since the potential of him and Randolph f@cking up their young nucleus makes me smile evilly.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 10:53 AM CDT up reply actions
"How Not to Build a Winner" by Chris Wallace
With a foreword by Kevin McHale.
Iverson? Really?
LoL, that doesn’t work on so many levels… age disparity, what would he want here (I imagine he wants to get a ring), we’re building a, I believe the term is, blue collar team and he’s everything but that .. If we really need help at the perimeter it’s at shooting and defending …
No way.
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Like the post;
In my opinion; I’d choose one of the 2 guys, there’s no need to totally load up on D-leaguers. Don’t totally agree on “no harm, no foul”; there’s a line as to how pittyfull we can look without warranting the “here goes minnesota again” comments.
I’d pick either one (read and liked both of their DX profiles but since we have more need for a versatile shooter than a lockdown defender (brewer is coming back) I’d pick Cummard).
For the other spot I’d then sign a vet, just for keeping down the locker room and balance. Don’t know which one tough.
How about … Lindsey Hunter?
Von Wafer, Luther Head? (not really vets and will both ask more than the vet min?)
Kareem Rush?
Beater of the early Thabeet drum ... but not so much of the late one
I think Mark Madsen
could probably be moved for cheap 2 or 3 on a team with a similar roster imbalance.
Also, remember that almost every team is going to have 14 players on the roster during the season, so you can really only do 2 for 1s, unless players have guys at the veteran minimum who aren’t going to upset the numbers (this is why it’s easier to make a splash with a Theo Ratliff or a Wally Szczerbiak). So while the expirings sound impressive, there are plenty of guys who are hard fits to get a deal done that would otherwise be very welcome on our roster.
Carney?
Carney could play the 2-3 and was a T-wolf last season. Any reason the Wolves don’t/can’t resign him? His all around play is ok and we know what we have. Personally, I like his play.
Yeah, that is kind of the forgotten name around here.
Is it a foregone conclusion he won’t be back next year?
Would
also like him to come back.
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions
Blah!!!
He’s medicore at best. I wouldn’t call him much of a defender nor much of a shooter- nor does he create for others. He does shot a high volume of threes though- which I supposed is better than long 2’s.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 6, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
He was basically our replacement for Mike Miller last season.
At times Rodney Carney was lights-out from threes. He was the only one on the Wolves last season who really impressed me with his speed and dunking abilities.
Carney's speed
is somewhat limited due to his lack of handles. His speed is impressive on a break situation but in a half-court setting it’s pretty useless.
Carney would really benefit from playing alongside Rubio, methinks.
Carney can’t create, but he can finish. And Rubio will need guys like Carney who can flush it down when he sets them up.
by princelyfrank on Jul 6, 2009 3:28 PM CDT up reply actions
Carney's speed is fast even when he's dribbling, but..
only when he’s on a fast break and is getting ready for a dunk.
Carney is a classic case of
a fun guy to watch on a mediocre team. Back in the mid-90’s, I remember getting excited for Sean Rooks’ authoritative dunks (and Kevin Harlan’s play-by-play call of them). Needless to say, he did not end up being part of the solution.
I agree
he’s mediocre at best; but what stud SG are we going to find? Gotta keep it realistic; our biggest trade assets were Foye and Miller.
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2009 2:35 PM CDT up reply actions
SG
We’re not going to find a stud SG. I would guess this is where most of Ellington’s and Brewer’s minutes are going to come. I really doubt Kahn’s going to put a lot of apples into a 2 guard since he thinks this is Flynn’s position long-term.
Flynn as the "2" guard long term? No way, Jose!
At a mere six feet tall, Jonny simply won’t be competitive on the wing.
That's what Kahn says .. why not give it a try.
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2009 3:21 PM CDT up reply actions
I think the idea is that Flynn defends 1 on D, while playing off the ball on Offense
In kind of a similar way to Allen Iverson (Not that I’m making that comparsion) or Nate Robinson (Playing Alongside Duhon)
Sure, I know what Kahn has said...
…and I think its a crack in his image. It was most likely an off the cuff “explanation” for picking a 2nd PG — and we know they immediately sent it running upstairs to Zagoda and the other media. Now they sorta have to live with it.
I don't know Kahn's reasoning
What I am saying is that players have been quite effective in the NBA as scorers playing off the ball at Jonny Flynn’s size
Iverson and “off the ball” are kind of opposite. Iverson was INCREDIBLY ball-dominant. He’d play next to a big defensive PG like Snow or McKie, but he did almost all of the offensive initiation with the ball in his hands from what I can remember.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
Snow would bring the ball up the court,
but the offensive was all Iverson. Either off the dribble or catch-and-shoot. I’ve never seen another offense built to that extent around one player.
Iverson...
…is 2nd in the history of the NBA in usage:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/usg_pct_career.html
He was, as you mention, the Sixers. I’ll be kind of interested to see if he gets a job. He was on pace to be the all-time leader in missed shots and turnovers.
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The crazy thing
was the year of their Finals run it worked for the 76ers. He was at his peak and they had guys who complimented him, Snow, McKie, Mutumbo, Tyrone Hill, Raja Bell, Jumaine Jones. The next year they blew up the team trying to upgrade and never recovered. It does go to show you it is possible to win with a non-traditional approach.
You're right in that I'm somewhat confusing the issues
My main point in the Iverson comparsions is a 6’0 guard that’s playing next to a traditional point who makes his living attacking the rim. I apologize if this came off in a different way.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 7, 2009 11:39 AM CDT up reply actions
I don't think the point is invalid at all.
It depends on the players. I think the Philly example shows that whether you have success with a non-traditional approach depends on whether/how well the players 1-5 and bench compliment one another.
Of course this is very difficult to say before Rubio or Flynn have ever logged a minute much less a season or two in the league. Season tipoff can’t get here soon enough.
Carney will be signed
as the 15th player as soon as the team determines that Rubio is NOT coming over.
If Rubio comes over, the FO, unlike us, believes the roster is balanced. Well, at least the 8 players they plan to play. Look for Flynn and Rubio to play 30+ minutes while having Telfair back up both 1/2. Brewer to play a little 2 plus some 3 with Gomes. Love, Jefferson and a cast of 1,000s take up the 4/5 spots.
Of course, the 1st injury throws this all to hell, but that seems to be the thoughts.
An injury at the 2/3...
….will definitely drag them to hell.
I do think that Harris has a shot.
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I dunno
I think they have to find a veteran 2 guard of some type. Paul Harris might be worth a flyer, but they have a severe lack of perimeter players who have shown that they can actually play in the NBA. They have to be able to field a team.
As for saving the expirings for the trade deadline…that’s a fairly high risk strategy. In season deals often run into snags, and there will be a ton of pressure to get that stuff done, because the deadline is that last minute that those contracts have value.
Keeping them for the capspace strikes me as a non-starter. The Wolves would have to severely overpay what essentially are going to be 2nd tier free agents to get them to come. I don’t see that as a viable strategy.
If they can make a deal this summer using some of those contracts for a good player, I’d want to do that. The other benefit of that is that it might make them a better team this year. Kahn clearly is punting this season, which I understand, but it isn’t without a downside.
I worry that Kahn has an attitude similar to what I see in a lot of fans, which is: If we aren’t going to win big, who cares if we win at all? I agree to a point; trying to sign Hedo or something in our current situation would be absurd. But on the other hand, just punting completely strikes me as not a good plan.
Winning and competing has benefits. It shows us things about players we otherwise don’t know. It helps instill confidence. Plus, players want to win. They want to be in situations where they can compete. Look at Al. We all think of Al as a star. I really like him; I think his skills are very valuable. But here’s a truth about Al Jefferson’s career: the more he’s played, the less his team has won. I’m not saying it’s his fault, I don’t believe it is. What I’m saying is, the sooner he’s in a regular position to compete and win and show his talents in a more competitive situation, the better for the development of this team.
Obviously, where they are now, development takes precedence over winning. That’s how it has to be. Which is why I think it’s important that Rubio come; the sooner he’s here, the faster the development can start and the sooner the team starts to reveal what it is and what it’s needs are. However, there’s development value in competing, as well. I’m a firm believer that it’s hard to develop properly on a 15 win team that’s getting blown out most nights. And that’s what they could be if their backcourt is Flynn/Ellington/Telfair.
Re: Al
I thought one of the big positives from January 09 was seeing Al deliver as a go-to guy in the 4th quarter. Having someone who wants the ball and deliver in crunch time is tough to come by, so ideally you would like to see him in these situations more. If the team isn’t in the game in the 4th quarter, that can’t happen.
It’s tough for me in a way, because I was in the camp (with McHale) that thought this team could compete for, if not make, the playoffs next year. That ship has obviously sailed, and I do understand that Kahn is setting his sights higher than just making the playoffs. But there is a danger that you slow down Al’s growth specifically as well as the even younger players. You need short term wins and validation, not just skill development or PT for its own sake.
That said, the optimist in me hopes that Al and K-Love will be good enough this year for the team to be more competitive than they should be. This would be a good sign for the state of the roster, and overachieving would be worth bumping a few notches down in next year’s lottery.
Top Heavy
The league is very top-heavy right now, with the 30-35 year old “stars” joining the teams that were already stacked. Just think of the Celtics and Lakers (not to mention Cavs, Spurs and Magic).
Boston can run out:
Rondo
Allen
Pierce
Wallace
Garnett
Lakers can run out:
Fisher
Bryant
Artest
Gasol/Odom (if they re-sign Odom)
Bynum/Gasol
The Wolves are smart to think long-term, as they had absolutely no chance of contending in the next few years.
TWolves players and fans alike will have more fun with a young, but hopeful and excited group of players that improve, each year. The last two years we were young, but not very talented. Now, we’ll have Love and Jefferson starting to become all-around talents, and the added excitement of Rubio and Flynn should make the basketball entertaining and consistently improving. Provided our key players stay healthy, we should win more next season than either of the past two. I say that because we still have our two best players, and I don’t think the loss of Foye-Miller is going to matter much, considering how those two did not fit into any sort of consistent role with this team. Bassy, Brewer and Gomes are all respectable players, and should be able to provide some stability around our young talent.
By the time Kobe and Duncan slow down, we should have a trio (or more) of good to great players that can lead a contender for a string of playoff runs.
I agree with part of this
They have to think long term. no doubt. They have to develop the young players they have, no doubt.
But I also disagree with parts of this. First of all, I don’t think they will win more than they did last year if they stick with essentially the current roster. I think that backcourt could be an utter disaster beyond anything we witnessed last season.
Look, in my view, it’s a continuum, which is what I was trying to say in my original post. Of course they can’t contend with the best teams over the next couple of years. But to me, that doesn’t mean that you don’t at least exert some effort in trying to win as many games as you can.
Part of development is competing. Yes, the young players have to play, but how much good does it do them to play a ton of minutes when they aren’t ready to do that?
I think the difference between you and I on this issue comes down to this: you think that the team as it more-or-less is now can win 30 games. If that’s true, fine, I’m OK with that; it means they are competitive and getting good experience. 30 wins, a good handful of close losses, develop players…that’s a plan.
My opinion is different. I think literally everything would have to go right for this roster to produce close to 30 wins. And I think significantly less than that is likely. And I don’t think that’s a good thing no matter how many ping pong balls they get.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 10:26 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree
In the sense that they can’t be tankers. But there is a difference between playing to win and winning while developing players. Bill Musselman played retreads and worked them to the bone to get 29 wins at the expense of developing players. Ultimately, that balance is up to the coaching staff, but the young players will have to get enough rope to basically hang themselves a few times but not enough to reduce their confidence. They’ve had a good approach late in the last two seasons, not caring about the effect that winning would have on their lottery chances, and I think that it’s something that’ll be carried over.
I also think the losses of Miller and Foye are being overestimated. They could both make shots, but one didn’t shoot at a high clip (Foye) and the other didn’t take enough attempts (Miller). This team had the worst % in the league. How much does having a more stable PG position, a guy who consistently drew fouls in the paint in college, and better perimeter defense to go along with a more mature Love and a new coach compensate for losing those two guys?
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
I take your point
but I’m not sure I agree that adding Flynn means a more stable PG situation OR better perimeter D. That’s making a lot of assumptions. Rookies struggle, and especially on defense—I’m not ready to drink the kool-aid on Flynn being a good defender.
I agree he has to play if he’s here, and especially if Rubio isn’t.
Bottom line for me is this: if your 1-2-3 positions are filled primarily by Flynn, Telfair, Ellington, Brewer and Gomes, that’s really horrendous this year, or at least it likely is. Gomes is probably the best player in that group for 2009-10. I’m sorry, but that strikes me as potentially disastrous.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions
The only big hole is at the 2-guard...
Telfair and Gomes are not bad NBA players. In their entire stints in Minnesota, they’ve always been pretty reliable and can easily be a key part of a 30-win team. At the off-guard, we’ll probably be looking at a combo of Ellington and Brewer. One can shoot and the other can defend. Nothing special, but “disastrous” is a stretch, especially if you’ve watched some of the late-season lineups thrown out by the likes of Miami (two years ago) and Sacramento, last year. Any team with Kevin Love and Al Jefferson should be better than 20-wins. We would have been last year, if Jeff didn’t get hurt, and it wouldn’t have had much to do with Foye or Miller—at least not the Foye we saw outside of that one hot month.
I don't know that it is...
Rookies don’t struggle as much in their positions of strength. For all his offensive problems two years ago, Brewer did a good job defensively on most nights. Maybe there is some hype behind Flynn’s defensive ability, but there’s also substance. The reason Flynn was ranked so highly probably had as much to do with the people who’d scouted him the entire season as it did the pre-draft workouts and interviews. The reasons they said they chose him instead of Curry were because of his defense and his ability to attack the rim. If we expect that Curry will be able to shoot in the pros, shouldn’t we expect Flynn to do some of the things he’s good at? Besides that, Foye/Ollie at the point last year were turnover-prone, lackluster defensively, and couldn’t get to the rim consistently. I don’t think it’s a stretch at all to say that replacing those two with Flynn won’t lead to improvement.
As for better perimeter D, that has more to do with the return of Brewer than with Flynn. It seems obvious that Brewer has been a better defender than Foye or Miller.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm even more glad
I’m not a fan of one of these “in-between” teams that will wince overpaying veterans in an effort to get to 45 wins, and an early exit in the playoffs, like:
Phoenix
Dallas
Golden State
Washington
Philadelphia
Toronto
Detroit
Charlotte
Utah
Give me youth and hope over age and certain mediocrity any day (I have enough of the latter in my own life, I don’t need any more from my favorite basketball team).
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I'm even more glad
I’m not a fan of one of these “in-between” teams that will wince overpaying veterans in an effort to get to 45 wins, and an early exit in the playoffs, like:
Phoenix
Dallas
Golden State
Washington
Philadelphia
Toronto
Detroit
Charlotte
Utah
Give me youth and hope over age and certain mediocrity any day (I have enough of the latter in my own life, I don’t need any more from my favorite basketball team).
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
That's delusional
Four of those nine teams that you mentioned have been in the conference finals in the last 5 years. I think “hope” and “youth” are catchy words, but they run out pretty quickly.
Ask Chicago Cubs fans how “youth” and “hope” work out…
Question, though...
Will any of them be contenders to get back there in the next 5 years? Maybe Utah and that’s it.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
I still like their chances
As much as or more than the Wolves’ chances of being contenders in the next 5 years.
If you're the extremely unfunny TimAllen from the TV show
I think your drug problem has come back.
The Wolves sucked last year, and will be worse this year. That said, Love/AlJeff/Flynn/Rubio will be in their mid to late 20s in five years. I don’t see many teams on that list that will have the same level of talent at the same age in five year. Golden State, sure, but if Nelly is still the coach, he won’t make the most of it. Utah, maybe, but Phoenix? Charlotte? Hell, Toronto?
Oh, and please stop making movies, as well. A grateful nation of ticketbuyers thanks you in advance.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Congrats...
…on making the connection that my name is the same as a famous comedian’s. Nice work. If only your basketball analysis was that astute…
If you’re relying on Love/Jeff/Flynn and Rubio to get the Wolves to the conference finals, I really don’t think any more needs to be said.
Then that's a different argument
And has nothing to do with the quality of those other teams.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Congrats...
…on making the connection that my name is the same as a famous comedian’s. Nice work. If only your basketball analysis was that astute…
Lets compare Charlotte with the Wolves…
Both have two young, talented point guards
Al Jeff is better than Okafor
Wallace is better than any 2 or 3 on the Wolves squad, and is only 26
Gerald Henderson will likely be as good or better than Ellington
So that leaves Love vs. the rest of Charlotte’s roster
Plus, Charlotte has an experienced coach…
So, why, again, do the Wolves have a better chance of contending than Charlotte?
Few Points
1. One- Charlotte’s kind of stuck as a bottom-lottery team. So they can keep adding role players like Gerald Henderson (Who I like) or losing in the 1st round of the Playoffs. I think the assumption is that the Wolves will probably be able to add 1 FA, 1 More High Lottery Pick along with a few other pieces before their final roster takes shape. I’d agree Charlotte is better now but considering thier tight-fisted owner- I really don’t see them developing into contenders.
2. I like Raymond Felton and DJ Augustin- They really can’t play together though since Felton they don’t really work size-wise. Queen City Hoops goes on about this in depth.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 6, 2009 12:05 PM CDT up reply actions
They don't--today
and I agree with all of your points on comparing the rosters (although I don’t think that Charlotte is much better than the Wolves, nor going to improve measurably in the future).
But the discussion point was about the next five years. There are no good, young players on the Hornets roster, short of Wallace, whom I believe is slightly overpaid, and won’t enjoy many more years of productivitvy.
They are in a tiny market in a state with lots of college BB eating up money and interest. The owner is looking to sell, and God help them if Michael Jordan gets even more talent/management influence over the roster. Larry Brown turns SEVENTY next year, and since his appearance in the Finals five years ago, has assembled a Wittman-esque winning percentage with much better talent than the Wolves have, and in a weaker division, too.
Many of those teams on that list are like the Wolves post-finals-appearance. I don’t think most fans were more excited about 42 wins, picking 16th in the draft, and barely missing or making the playoffs than they are right now. Who knows—they could stink again for another five years. But with lots of picks and cap room, they have a much better possibility of improving than most of those teams on the list.
Upon preview, I see that you are a Cubs fan. Knowing that, I was harder on you than you deserve. Please accept my apologies and condolences.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Gerald Wallace is Not Overpaid!!!
He’s got a very reasonable contract for his level of production taking into account Win Shares and Defense. If he’s overpaid then Al’s overpaid. I do agree with you though that his game might not translate well into his 30’s since it’s so Athleticism based.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 6, 2009 12:17 PM CDT up reply actions
Cheese Louise
I said, “slightly” overpaid. And, it’s not just athleticism. The guy sells out on most nights, which is great, but also causes some severe damage to the body over time.
Only a few days back from vacation, and you’re already cranky?
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
And since when
do you use the “reply” function when making comments? Half the reason I read whatever you say was so I could go back up the thread and try to figure out to whom you were replying. ;)
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I had some computer troubles
that are fixed. You have to remember I said the other day that “Gerald Wallace” was a Top 15 player in the league.
Heh heh . . .
I bow to your greater body of knowledge. Gerald Wallace is fairly paid.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Hey, in defense of Tim Allen
He was great in “Galaxy Quest”
by princelyfrank on Jul 6, 2009 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
funny movie
Perhaps it’s because I expected it to be the worst movie I had ever seen, but it’s quite entertaining.
Yeah, much better than it looks from it's cover or trailer.
It’s a comedy I can whole-heartedly recommend to people who actually enjoy good movies. The whole “Hammer of Grabthar” bit kills me every time.
by princelyfrank on Jul 6, 2009 8:52 PM CDT up reply actions
That's a different argument, then
And one that I and probably others would disagree with, especially since the roster reconstruction just started. Your argument is more against the capability of the team to build a contender than it is about the quality of any of those other teams. It’s not delusional to think that a young team with multiple future picks and some well-regarded young players will turn out to be a contender.
And the Cubs? Seriously? That team is full of guys who they didn’t originally draft.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:24 AM CDT up reply actions
Not really
My argument is that I would rather root for a “mediocre” team that usually makes the playoffs, occassionally makes the conference/NBA finals, and once in a while wins a title, instead of a team that keeps relying on the “hope” of young players.
The Cubs were probably a poor comparison. But as a lifelong Cubs fan, I know that every year, the “hope” argument (more than the young one) comes out and is shallow comfort when you never get close to being a real contender.
Pretty sure
all of the Wolves fans here are more than a bit familiar with rooting for a mediocre team that just makes the playoffs, which is quite different from one that makes the conference or NBA finals. And building off youth is not only a viable way of building a winner in the NBA, it might be the only viable way for this particular franchise to do it.
See, that's different...
Most mediocre teams have basically one losing run at the conference finals and that’s it. They don’t win titles. The Wolves of this decade are a good example of that. The teams that have made the conference finals the last few years have done it because they get better players through development, trades, and free agency. To me, at least some of those teams you listed won’t get to a championship level if they stick with the status quo. I usually connect mediocrity to the status quo.
An NFL writer, Mike Lombardi, constantly says, “never confuse hope for a plan.” I think the main difference is that you don’t think the team has a plan but other fans do. It seems premature to judge what they’ll be capable of without seeing who they get in the next year.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Actually...
I do think the Wolves have a plan. I think they could be contenders, and I’m excited about the future. I just thought Mr. PD’s argument was one that I don’t personally subscribe to.
Dude, it's all about the draft picks
The Charlotte’s, the Phoenix’s, the Dallas’ of the world will grind out just enough wins to barely make the playoffs (or slightly miss). They’ll pick some mediocre player at #18, who will be stuck behind an aging vet. And they’ll do it all again next year. Eventually they totally suck and become the current Timberwolves.
We are a worse team, but we’ve passed the point of slow decline, and have (fingers crossed) hit rock bottom. We’ve cleared the trash and bad contracts, we have some nice young talent and we are going to be picking near the top of the next two drafts.
Absolutely that is a better position to be in than starting the season with your eyes on a #7 seed and no flexibility to improve your roster.
Philly and Golden State have some potential. Let’s say, for argument’s sake, that Elton Brand (finally) gets healthy, and Jrue Holiday maxes out his potential. Two big ifs, but if they both happen, Philly could have a great team in two years—especially on defense.
Golden State is a dysfunctional organization, but they have Steph Curry, Monta Ellis, Captain Jack, Anthony Randolph, and others. Not exactly a team on the decline, talent-wise.
But all of this goes in cycles. Kahn wants to get us back in the conversation in a couple years, and I think he’s taking an aggressive, but reasonable and realistic approach. I really think that the Foye-Miller-Love-Jefferson quartet was going to max out at 40 wins, before Miller got even older, and Foye continued to not be a point guard or a true shooting guard that can play defense.
Good points. I don’t see Golden State getting to that point but see how they could, and Philly could in a few years if Brand’s not washed up and they figure out how to play him with their athletes.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:31 AM CDT up reply actions
"have been"
loses its luster pretty quickly. As evidence by Boston’s desperation to make the most of the Big Three before they enter the nursing home, by re-assembling the 1998 NBA All-Star Roster (plus Rondo).
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Unless KG is permanently disabled from last year’s knee injury, I think Boston is, at worst, the second-best team heading into 2009-10. Their starting lineup is ridiculous—perhaps the best 1-5 I can ever remember, provided that Rondo’s playoffs weren’t a fluke and Rasheed is (re)inspired to play hard, again.
I’m not saying that Boston isn’t going to fall on their face, at some point, but they are a bona fide contender, who is smart to keep trying to contend.
Boston is my pick
Like you said, as long as KG is healthy. But the Rasheed pick up was HUGE. They’ll get one more vet perimeter defender to play the Posey role and I think you can already start scratching their names on the trophy for next year.
Me too..
…if KG is healthy. Sheed knows how to play Howard:
http://www.basketball-reference.com/fc/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=wallara01&p2=howardw01
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Agreed all around on Boston
But—lots of “ifs” with a shaky offseason for Rondo, a well-worn Garnett on the recovery track, Allen in a contract year, and the new Big Four (plus Grant Hill?) all qualifying for AARP in less than twenty years.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
The East is still up for grabs...
because LeBron-Williams-Shaq and Nelson-Carter-Lewis-Howard are also extremely talented groups on Cleveland and Orlando, but it’s hard to imagine any of them beating Boston, if their starting five is healthy.
An LA-Boston rematch, with Artest and Sheed added to the fun, would be unbelievable entertainment. Then again, so would Kobe vs Shaq or KG vs Duncan.
Good points
I wonder if the Rubio-less Wolves will get equal national TV time next season as LA, Boston, Cleveland, and Orlando?
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I don't get it
I’m not sure Boston would’ve made the Finals this year with KG healthy. Next year they’re yet another year older and everyone else has gotten better. I like Sheed, but engraving their name on the trophy? I’m not even penciling them into the conference finals.
Get It!
Are you kidding? The Celtics took the Magic to 7 games without KG. And the Magic took the Cavs. Now I know the Cavs were saying they would rather have played the Celtics because they were “a better match up”. But I am pretty sure they wouldn’t have been saying that with KG playing.
Did you live hear during “the reign”? Do you know how much better KG makes his teammates? There’s really not a doubt in my mind they would have beaten the Cavs and lunched the Lakers- again.
Healthy KG would've fer sure won the east.
And probably would have beat the Lakers, too.
by princelyfrank on Jul 6, 2009 3:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Humbug
They weren’t playing like world-beaters after Christmas, before KG went down. They lost the Orlando series because they couldn’t stop the 3’s. Cleveland without a doubt could play with them. They had guys stepping up like Baby and Rondo in the playoffs that might not have had that extra need to step up with KG, or in Davis’ case he wouldn’t have had the opportunity. You could even argue they didn’t lose the “KG makes his teammates better” advantage. Sorry, not that it’s outside the realm of possibility, but it’s certainly not definite. And it’ll be more difficult next year.
Well, not definite, certainly.
But they were so close to taking out Orlando, despite injuries leading to no front court depth at all. You don’t think KG playing those all those Scalabrine minutes wouldn’t have swung one game?
Of course, injuries do happen, and Orlando was able to defeat this crippled Celtics team.
But Rondo would’ve stepped up regardless. That’s a young man on a mission. I don’t think he needed KG’s injury to inspire him to play like a stud. He thought himself a stud already.
by princelyfrank on Jul 6, 2009 8:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Having him when he was five years younger would have done it too
but I notice that’s not when the Celtics traded for KG, or Ray Allen…..
Top heavy...
and aging quickly. Just did a fanpost with the ages of a majority of NBA guards that breaks it down.
I agree completely that the Wolves and fans would be wise to look down the road a bit. It doesn’t do any good to compare this roster to LA and the like. I think it would be better to compare to the other young teams (maybe OKC and Portland and I’m really not sure who else) and see how our young guys match-up with their young guys instead of comparing how our young guys match-up with older teams vets.
by Minneapleseed on Jul 6, 2009 2:17 PM CDT up reply actions
It's not easy
to manage the attitude and culture of a team losing a lot of games. This is where it gets tricky for the next few years. The coaching pick is going to be critical, you don’t want it to turn into a circus with 65/70 loss seasons and a continuous coaching carousel. Also, winning and clutch play are not things that most players can turn on and off like a switch.
To be clear, I am not arguing against the Foye/Miller trade. I think Rubio with or without Flynn has the talent and moxie to really help the franchise contend long-term. But they are likely to take a step backwards as a team when Al and K-Love (two of your cornerstones) need to take a step forward and are trotting out a team of young players with Etan Thomas and Mark Madsen as your veteran leadership. And Rubio might not come this year.
That doesn’t mean all is lost, but the front office and new coaching staff are going to have to earn their $ keeping things on track.
I think
we really need a veteran or two at the 2 or 3. That many rookies would just be too much. We need at least some experience back there. I have no problem with youth or hope, but Flynn and Ellington fill that role. And we don’t want to be under 20 wins, that type of season beats players down. Al needs to feel like we’re going somewhere. And I bet he has some positivity, look at what the team was doing before he got hurt. Though Foye and Carney both had a big hand in that, which is why we need more than a couple undrafted rookies, if at all possible. Bring back Carney. What about Desmond Mason? Matt Barnes would be cool. Marquis Daniels would definitely be worth a look. Same with Von Wafer. Just something to ground us a little bit in the backcourt and/or on the wing.
Look, If I’m Kahn and I’m selling a young team this year, hoping to have a high lottery choice next year, and hoping to use the trade deadline with expriing contracts and next year’s free agency period to acquire veteran help that may stay here after 09-10, it doesn’t make sense to sign a free agent for roster balance. I like the idea of signing another rookie for better roster balance, but instead of signing a veteran, let’s find another imbalanced roster in a similar situation as the Wolves that compliments our excess PF’s.
New Jersey – Depth Cart
Harris/Alston/Dooling
C. Lee / Hassell / CDR / Hayes
Simmons / T. Williams / Najera
Yi / Williams
Lopez / Boone
Hayes, Hassell and Simmons are all in the final years of their contracts. We should be able to strike a deal like this where a team like NJ has a glut of swingmen and is thin in the frontcourt. They are similarly hoping to land a high lottery pick, but use capspace in 2010 to sign LeBron. I think this is the type of deal to me bade rather than signing a low-tier FA for more $$$ in a lost season.
A one-for-one deal with NJ would make a lot of sense. Maybe Thomas or Cardinal for Hassell or Simmons, or Pecherov or Madsen for CDR or Hayes.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
agreed -- trade now for a vet at SG
An NJ looks like a great place to start looking.
I’m afraid Trenton Hassell is too expensive, though.
Nooooooo
Not Hassell. He was a good defensive-oriented player until the NBA changed the hand-check rules. After that, he became a liability.
I don't think
That whether someone is a “liability” should factor into this. We just need more bodies at the 2-3 positions versus the 4-5 positions. Hassell is definitely not a great player, but neither are Songaila, Smith, Cardinal, Madsen, Thomas, and Pecherov.
Having read this thread it seems like the disagreement comes down to
the quality of the current roster. It appears that we agree that being a 15 win team is not a good thing. Playing for ping pong balls on July 6th is a bad idea, even if we know we aren’t going to contend.
Some think this is a roughly 30 win team as more or less currently constituted. I think it is not. It seems to me that we can look at it like this:
1. I’m wrong (nothing new there) and this is a roughly 30 win team with a tweak or 2 (Carney back, Harris signed, Pecherov bought out to make room).
a. If this is true, then I agree, let’s proceed as above. Develop the young players, who clearly will be able to handle it if this is indeed a 30 win club.
2. I’m right, and this isn’t a team that can win 30. More like 15-20. If that’s true, we all seem to agree that it isn’t a good result. It means the young players are drowning, it means the atmosphere is probably bad, etc.
If it’s 2, then there are decisions to make.
First, we can just live with it. Nobody seems to think that’s a good thing, but how much is it worth to avoid it? It’s definitely worth something to me, maybe more than it is to some of you. Opinions welcome.
Second, and this would be my choice, I think, we can try to make our “big trade” using our expirings sooner rather than later. We’ve discussed guys like Kevin Martin and Gerald Wallace. Don’t know if such a thing is possible, either now or at the trade deadline. We’ve talked about Fernandez, a slightly different type of move.
Third, we can try to sign a free agent or two that are a cut above Rodney Carney. Museum suggested some names; I don’t know if that makes a real difference, but maybe it does.
Fourth, maybe we can make a trade like Ebomb suggests with a team like Jersey and get our hands on a decent wing player. Again, not sure how much that helps, but maybe it could.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 11:57 AM CDT reply actions
I mostly agree but don’t see how you wanna do those things (in case you’re right). I’m also not certain why this is true: “Remember, these contracts are not valuable in terms of cap-clearing right now. They mature in value between the opening day of the season and the trading deadline.” I’m not one to doubt SnP but don’t know how that stuff works.
So I don’t really get how we are going to get Fernandez, Martin or Wallace with expirings … we’ve got nothing else. Giving up Flynn for one of those is just a lateral move in my mind (especially if Rubio doesn’t play here next year).
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2009 12:10 PM CDT up reply actions
Well, I don't want to make this into another trade thread
but I’d deal Flynn for those guys in a package.
What SnP was saying was that teams might be more willing to trade their good players for expirings once they’ve seen how the season is going. I’m not entirely sure he’s right, but he may be.
I don’t know that we can make the “big trade” either now or at the deadline. But it seems like that’s part of Kahn’s plan, anyway. It might be impossible. In which case, our expiring contracts aren’t that valuable, and we are in even more trouble.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
If we HAVE to trade Rubio
We will need to include contracts in order to receive players back.
by WinTheLottery on Jul 6, 2009 3:35 PM CDT up reply actions
great summary for a great conversation from a great post.
there, i think i’ve complimented everyone.
my thoughts:
1) even if we let those expirings go, we can still be players in the trade market. as long as we’re under the cap. would we be?
2) i’m hesitant to give minutes to a vet on a one year contract with little chance of being the long term plans, just because we’ve done that two years in a row (Carney last season, Snyder the one before) and we have yet to see what Brewer can do. finishing the season not knowing what Brewer AND Ellington can do would be a waste,
3) i’ll go out on a limb and say i agree with you, that we aren’t a 30 win team as constructed. as long as we can get a coach who’s clear prerogative is to make sure we compete (in an effort sense), develop, and have fun being well-paid NBA players, knowing that next season we’ll be making big moves via the draft & trades, there is a sunny day on the horizon.
anywho.
FA and Trades
1. We’re actually pretty close to the Cap. So we wouldn’t be able to assume very much salary in trades. Only maybe a 1 or 2 Million dollars so the options here are quite limited.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 6, 2009 12:14 PM CDT up reply actions
I think he was referring to next summer
If we are under the cap by renouncing our FAs, we can take back salary without matching it. Still, to let those expirings expire seems ill advised.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:16 PM CDT up reply actions
It depends...
On whether the team would feel a need to spend the cap space or not. If they don’t, the space is just there until they need to start thinking about extending contracts. Unlike Miller, none of the current expirings would be considered guys who’d play on a contender (maybe Thomas).
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
yep, i was thinking next season
the stuff on the web (and every site comes up with a different number?!) seems to have us below $29 million. not counting Flynn and Ellington and next seasons draft picks. if the cap stayed around $58, we’d be around at least $13 million under it. more if we renounce Pek, and we’ve also got further expirings in Telfair (assuming he picks up his option) and Songaila.
In terms of the cap
They can sit on the contracts and have a lot of cap space after this season. Here’s our contract info page:
http://www.canishoopus.com/pages/contract-info
They could definitely play things so they could max someone out. I doubt they’d do it, but they could go down that path if they wanted to by letting all the expirings expire and not exercising a player option or two. They only people they have to pay that are currently signed (the rookies aren’t signed yet) are Jefferson (13 mil), Songaila (4.8), Love (3.6) and Bassy (2.7). Gomes, Brewer and Pecherov are either partially guaranteed or can be optioned. The rookies will take up about 6.4 if Rubio comes over and 3.5 if he doesn’t.
In other words, if Rubio comes over, they are looking at about 24.1 mil in guaranteed salary with 7 players:
1- Rubio/Flynn/Bassy
2- Flynn/Ellington
3-
4- Love/Songaila
5- Jefferson/
Gomes would add 4.3 and Brewer would add 3.7. So, if they kept those two they would enter the off season with 9 players and just over 32 mil with this roster:
1- Rubio/Flynn/Bassy
2- Flynn/Ellington/Brewer
3- Gomes/Brewer
4- Love/Songaila
5- Jefferson/
That’s a boat load of money to spend. They will have to spend a bit to keep guys like Love and (hopefully, if he plays better) Brewer, but that’s still a ton of money.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
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first of all,
those numbers in orange are HIGHsterical. oh my…
yeah, that’s about where i hoped we were. and given that we are destination #33 in a 32 team league as far as FA, i still believe we’ll have to do a lopsided trade instead of signing someone. i was just trying to make the point that we don’t HAVE to use the expirings to make the “big” trade. we can hopefully afford to wait until the right one comes along.
i agree...
…about the lopsided trade. the wolves could give one of their 1st rounders and…say….bassy for a big player if they’re that far under the cap. This is where you hope Kahn gets creative and goes to a team that is on its way down and offers them a restart with 2 picks and perhaps one of his nice young points for their superstar. They could then use the remaining money to fill out the roster with guys who are more role players.
The question with this scenario is who should they go after?
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that would be..
the $20 milllion-we-coulda-given-Spree dollar question!
With Spree's many financial troubles
I’m glad that McHale’s not the GM, so he won’t be tempted to re-offer the same deal to Latrell.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
15 wins IS a good thing
It puts us in the best position to get the game changing superstar we are going to need to ever truly compete for a Championship. I don’t aspire to be the Utah Jazz. There is just not enough talent here to ever be among the best teams in the league. Not with guys like LeBron, Howard, Durant and Derick Rose out there.
You're talking about
getting that superstar in the draft? I don’t think that’s something you base your plan on, it’s just something you hope to get lucky with.
I can tell you this, outside of Jonny Flynn, I can absolutely say that nobody on this squad has superstar potential. And I am fairly sure we aren’t signing one via free agency. You got any better ideas?
Well, it's Rubio
But it’s more likely nobody.
Here’s the problem, though; you can’t just keep having 15 win seasons until you luck into that superstar in the draft. There’s a name for that: The Clippers. Maybe they got the guy this year, maybe not. But they’ve been terrible for a long, long time.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:25 PM CDT up reply actions
I know it’s difficult because this organization has already taken on a Clipper-like quality. But, I think we have to accept that we are starting over….truly starting over, with a plan, not like the half assed “we may still make the playoffs” bullshit that McHale was trying to sell us.
I think we need to realize that we are not going to be good for some time. But the way to get better is to draft wisely and develop the young talent we have…not try to patch the holes with veterans so we can get to some meaningless 20 or 30 win number.
i guess my dream scenario
is that this season IS a wash. but with no babies in the bath water (??).
meaning, we save our flexibility til next season, when all heck is gonna break loose. 2/3 good draft picks that fill out the roster PLUS some crazy big trade (or two, even!) that nets us Khan’s #1 guy. then we go from there.
True, but still much easier
to get a guy who doesn’t quite fit the bill at #1-3 then it is to get “THAT” guy. That’s why you don’t count on the draft to take you to the promised land, IMHO. Ask Atlanta, Boston, Clippers, etc. Far more common than your Clevelands.
It's risky to try to tank your way into a superstar.
Even for unintentionally lousy teams, it doesn’t work out. See: Wolves/Shaq, Celts/Duncan. The Wolves can’t be continuously chasing potential “superstars” in the lottery while alienating the viable players you do have.
You can’t wait for a savior. They will need a good coach who can manage what will be a tough situation for competitive guys like Al and Love, as well as the two-headed PG monster.
I agree it is risky, but this is the hand we’ve been dealt. Outside of the Pistons, can you name a championship team over the past 20 years that wasn’t built on the draft?
Every team since Jordan retired (sorta)
Boston, Lakers, Spurs (I’m taking a liberty there because Parker and Ginobili were so far down. I mean, it’s some of both, San Antonio obviously needed Duncan, but they needed those other two just as much. Lakers needed Kobe (who wasn’t drafted at the top), but they needed Shaq and Gasol just as much. Boston was mostly trades, same with ’04 Pistons. ’99 Spurs are the only team that was mostly because of the draft
The Celtics
Paul Pierce was presiding over a bad team before they got Garnett. Obviously, they used their players and picks to get Garnett and Allen, so on one level they “built through the draft” but using that definition leads to nullity.
The 3 time champion Lakers with Kobe (Drafted for by Charlotte, traded to LA) and Shaq qualify in my opinion as well.
Gotta draft well. Can’t tank seasons for ping pong balls in my opinion.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:44 PM CDT up reply actions
DougW has a point
which is that the truly dynastic teams have mostly gotten a top 3 pick and gotten lucky to get one of the top 20 players of all time. The Bulls. The Spurs (sort of—they already had a top 10 player in the league who got hurt, getting them the pick that was Duncan). The Lakers with Magic (though that was already a talented team with Kareem). The Bird Celtics. Cleveland could get there with LeBron, or he could be gone next year.
My feeling is, though, that you cannot wait around for that to happen. Gotta try to get better.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I am not advocating
that we start MadDog at center or anything. I mean, yeah, you try to win every game, of course. But I have no problem heading into the season with some holes and a lot of young players. Yes, that is a recipe for a lot of losses.
But my hope is that these young guys take their lumps and the additional playing time turns them into better players. I just don’t want to see the team make moves that will limit our flexibility to acquire vets. It’s not just about the ping pong balls, every minute we give to a Mike Miller type is a minute we take from Brewer or Ellington….and I don’t see how that helps us get to where we all want to be.
If the argument is that
a few holes and extra losses due to those holes are okay, then I get it. It doesn’t make sense to get someone like Miller who is going to take a lot of minutes and not be around when the team is (hopefully) contending.
I will say this though: you can’t have all young guys. There have to be at least a couple vets who can help teach the young players how to be pros and play the game. Sam Mitchell, Terry Porter, Malik Sealy, Terrell Brandon are examples of this in the Wolves history (they all happened to produce on the court too). Didn’t seem like Miller could be that guy last year.
I've tried to make the point in this thread
that I think there IS danger in overplaying young players who aren’t prepared. Sometimes having a Mike Miller type is useful for the development of young players. If Ellington is getting minutes he can’t handle, it IS a bad thing.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
McHale made a comment about this last year. Something like: You play Kevin Love 35 minutes a night and he’s going to put up good numbers. But is he still going to run back on defense? Is he going to be tired and not rotate correctly? Limiting his minutes allows him to focus on the court and create good habits. I think you have to play the rookies but it’s best to limit them to 25 to 30 minutes per night and to have vets that play their position.
You guys are correct on this. I am coming around. Would it be best to get 1-2 solid character guys in the twilight of their careers who would be willing to play a mentorship role rather than competing for minutes?
Need both
in the Wolves situation, a vet presence at the begining of the season to guide and then let the rookie get more PT as the season goes on (provided the rookie can play a little.)
Here’s a good article on the debate from the Wizards season last year.
by Minneapleseed on Jul 6, 2009 3:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Finding guys who can be effective in that role
takes scouting too. Miller and Ollie were supposed to play this part last year, and I don’t think they met expectations.
Lakers won 47 games before they drafted Magic, Celtics got Bird by taking him a year before he was going to come. But it’s true that getting an iconic player outside of the draft is difficult. Our only way of doing outside of a top pick is getting lucky further down in the draft, or building an attractive environment where a superstar would accept being traded to, or, less likely sign as a FA.
I see a lot more downside
in 15 wins than upside.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Agreed...
…you go for as much as you can at all times and hopefully things will work out for the best.
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I don't see what difference
it will make winning 25-30 games with vets over 30 than it will be to win 15-20 games with players who are about 15-20 years old.
HOPE SELLS SEASON TICKETS!
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I think...
…style of play will have a lot to do with it too. If they’re not getting killed and they’re playing fun ball with Rubio, Flynn, Love and Jefferson, I think they’ll have more people watching than last year.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Is it just my comments
or is the site a little balky today?
Don’t get me wrong, I certainly understand if my input is being censored due to vast outcry from the other users. You gotta family to feed, and all.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
"Balky"
as in, “I’m having trouble getting comments posted with the lightning-quick speed to which I have become accustomed.”
As opposed to “Balki”
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
The show was the precursor
for the end of the Cold War.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
gotchya...
….it’s been kind of weird lately.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
I understand the system acting up
the whole Palin resignation thing has kind of thrown everything out of whack.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
still waiting eagerly for some scandalous news
to break on Palin. What’s the over under on years until her Playboy spread?
I would settle for
her actually starring in “Nailin’ Palin II—Bugaloo in the Igaloo”
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I know just how you feel
I went to last year’s season-ending Wolves vs. Sacto game.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Do the polar bears and Caribou earn scale
for that film?
My apologies in advance for this post.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 3:48 PM CDT up reply actions
now you're talking...
Ron Jeremy would have to play the lecherous eskimo.
Is it okay
if I adopt a second user account here under the name “Lecherous Eskimo?”
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
It depends
Wisconsin is still offering some tax credits to see if they can get the movie made in Eagle River.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Badgers and Beavers
starring Sarah Palin?
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 4:31 PM CDT up reply actions
Ewwwwwww
Throw in a Hodag, and I think I can line up some local financing.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Jeez, you guys.
Being joked about by web-commenters like this is what forced her to resign! Darn liberals interwebnets.
by princelyfrank on Jul 6, 2009 8:59 PM CDT up reply actions
two vets I would consider
Morris Almond & Von Wafer. One of those two, not both. Almond has great size for a wing & has shown the ability to score in college & the NBDL….just not yet in the NBA. Wafer can fill it up. I prefer Almond for his size though.
But if it were really up to me I would be using those expiring contracts an assets like Brewer Pekovic to land Marvin Williams.
by Jumping to Pass on Jul 6, 2009 12:06 PM CDT reply actions
Wafer...
….is interesting. I don’t know much about Almond. Good calls.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Almond
he dominated (26 ppg) at Rice & in the NBDL. Dude needs minutes to see if that scoring prowess translates.
by Jumping to Pass on Jul 6, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Almond is "signed"
I know I’ve seen this, but I can’t find the link
Sometimes the obvious is hidden.
If we can get a Kevin Martin or Gerald Wallace now
..for expiring deals we absolutely do it, no question. We’re not going to get a “game-changer” in free agency, we never have. The names I suggested were just to add some veteran help and help the culture around the team. I think it’s preferable to the Harris/Cummard scenario. I’d much prefer to do that trade if it’s possible.
I agree
I might have not spoken well by saying I’m not sure your FAs would help, or Ebomb’s trade. I would absolutely do either one of those things at the right price, and I agree with you that it should help the culture and hopefully the competitiveness. Definitely preferable to the Harris/Cummard scenario in my view.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 6, 2009 12:11 PM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps Kahn desires to bottom out
Then add an Evan Turner/Cole Aldrich along with another FA piece. Maybe you get lucky land John Wall then all hell breaks loose.
As far as next season goes- I’m undecided for a number of reasons.
1. Jefferson’s Health (If Al’s healthy along with Kevin they should have a above-average Front Court). Al’s health could make the difference between Wins in the Mid 20’s and Mid’s Teens
2. Can Brewer be a starter at the 2 or 3? If he’s not enough of a Offensive Liability to be on the court for 32 minutes a night. This along with Flynn should improve the perimeter D quite a bit. I agree that Flynn might not be great on this end right away- although he’ll be better than Bassy I’m fairly certain.
3.Good Stuff on Cummard and Harris!! I look forward to watching Summer-League.
Can someone help me?
This is unrelated to the Wolves, but since I’m too lazy to figure out Real GM and I got no response on another LA site – why didn’t the Lakers go after Kidd? He was thinking about a really low offer from NY, they could use a PG, he needs a ring and he’s from California. Would it not make sense to check it out and offer what NY was?
1 – Kidd
2 – Kobe
3 – Artest
4- Gasol
5 – Bynum
Por que no?
I don’t think he’d be a great fit. The triangle offense wouldn’t maximize his playmaking and he doesn’t give them the shooting they’d like at pg.
But they couldn't afford him maybe $5 mill
even after Artest? I’d take Artest first too, but I was just surprised, seemed like a good fit all around. And Kidd is far from a corpse, not an All Star, but a huge improvement over Fisher and Farmar.
I'm not disagreeing- I'm just saying why they didn't have the room to sing him.
Kidd was actually quite effective last year.
Or at least, don't
play it very often.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Dang it -- dont forget that this team needs centers.
Badly.
Some short term veteran backcourt help, that’s nice.
Another season of Jefferson starting at center?
Unwatchable.
Luckily for the Wolves, I have the impression that Kahn agrees with me. I wonder if McHale talking up Love/Jefferson as “his” 4/5 combo is what finally sent him to the wood shed.
(I fully expect to get flamed for taking this position.)
I'm tired of responding to this.
I just want to note that Al actually rebounds quite-well for a Center and has a pretty decent block rate for a Starting NBA center. His issue are more with rotations more than anything on D. He probably more than makes up for this by being a better than average Offensive center.
The problem with Al at the 4 is that his Offensive game is so much more effective the closer he plays to the basket. So you would almost need to pair him with a Perimeter Oriented 5 like Big Z.
If not, then starting Love at the 4 is
Some day, we’ll all realize that two 6’8" guys are not a competitive 4/5 combo in this league. Even if they were fast and had hops — which Jefferson and Love aren’t.
Huh??
Jefferson’s 6’10 with an adequate standing reach for a Center. He’s probably averaged sized for a 5. As far as Love/Jefferson together- they’ll be a better Offensive than Defensive pairing
Although
1. Both players rebound quite well
2. Love’s Offensive Skills should compliment Jefferson’s quite well
3. They’re Defense will look a lot better once they have competent Perimeter Defenders
Translation: You only trade them if you get players that are clearly better.
Great
Jose makes a great point above about Al’s need to be near the basket on offense. Since offense is Al’s biggest strength, whether he plays the 4 or the 5, he needs to have room in the block to operate. No one should disagree with this.
So, this means that ON OFFENSE the wolves need another frontcourt player that does not need to be in the paint to score.
Sure, ON DEFENSE, it would be great to have a phenomenal shot blocker and rebounder.
With Love, wolves have a phenomenal rebounder. And a guy that can hit outside shots (hopefully he’ll do that more frequently this year).
To replace Love, Wolves would want a shot blocker, who’s a good rebounder and can hit shots from the outside. Those guys don’t grow on trees.
And since they don’t, we have to debate the relative merits of rebounding vs. shot blocking and offense vs. defense.
But Love is not a bad fit. He would be perfect if he were 6’ 10’’ and blocked shots in addition to being an otherwordly rebounder and passer, as well as a decent shooter who gets to the free throw line.
It is a good point about Jefferson's scoring zone
…but it doesn’t mean you should have everyone else relegated to the nether regions.
This years Finals were a primo example. Dwight Howard simply did not have enough help inside. He ended up dragging around three big Lakers at key moments. And to be sure, Al Jefferson is no Dwight Howard.
Howard had problems...
Because he has no post moves and average footwork. He’s definitely better than Jefferson overall, but Jefferson’s a much better post scorer.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 9:13 PM CDT up reply actions
I don't know that it helps
to have the standard to meet be LA with their three posts (Bynum, Gasol, Odom). It isn’t going to happen, so rather than build your roster to compete against one team with a unique advantage – find good players with strengths and build an approach around them.
Love and Jefferson bring advantages in low-post scoring, offensive and defensive rebounding over opposing players almost every night. Against some teams where matchups look bad on paper (i.e. Phoenix w/Shaq, Houston w/Yao) they had success as a tandem.
If they have a chance to grab a Bynum or Pau, by all means do it. But there is a graveyard of roster moves (draft & trade) where GM’s tried to believe a player was an impact 5 and it didn’t work out. Right now, they need to upgrade the 1-3 and the draft was a good start.
Yep- to both points
If Dwight Howard is avaliable for Al you do it. Since this is never going to happen- you go to War with what you got.
Not sure about now...
But Jefferson was 6’8 1/2 w/o shoes when he entered the draft. I still agree, though; these are probably the two best players on the team, and at least half the teams in the league don’t have true centers who play meaningful minutes.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 5:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Childress
Is there any reason why all the once-frequent Childress buzz has leveled off? He’d look pretty good in a Wolves uniform. Well, not really… but you know what I mean.
No word from Milwaukee
on the results of his visit. But my guess is the conversations go something like,
CHILDRESS: “Are you dumb enough to pay me after taxes even more than I’m making overseas?”
NBA TEAMS: “Dumb enough? Yes. Wealthy enough? Not during The Great Recession.”
CHILDRESS: “Okay. I’ll check back next year.”
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I never bring it up
since I figure the Wolves aren’t going hard into FA.
I also tought about it
but I think our cap has come too little with the deal for the 5pick (?)
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Jul 6, 2009 3:25 PM CDT up reply actions
Do we have any evidence about Kahn's opinion of Brewer?
Corey Brewer has seemingly been conspicuously absent from public statements by the new PoBO. Is this the Foye freezeout?
As recently as the end of the regular season, when Wolves front office types explained the bad year they mentioned Brewer’s injury. Kahn doesn’t do that.
I noticed the Foye Freezeout too..
And it seems like if you haven’t heard Kahn say a guy’s name then it’’s an indication that the player is likely on the trading block. And of course, everyone pretty much is.
But I think I recall him actually mentioning Corey’s name on some radio interview after the draft.
Kahn vs. Brewer
I have heard Kahn mention Brewer’s name a few time and always in a good light. I wish I could cite something, but he has mentioned him as an important player.
Here's the concept, help me with a couple names
The Wolves should trade one or two of their extra bigs to a team with extra mid size players. Fortunately many NBA teams are overloaded at SG/SF. I am thinking of getting a player who aspires to be an NBA coach. He may be overpaid at the end of a contract, but young enough to play another five years (we can send an overpaid big guy in exchange). He could also be in his last year or two and only able to play 10 minutes a night.
A guy like this would be a great influence for the young guys brought in the last couple years. I am specifically thinking of a Sam Mitchell type. Someone who doesn’t want to lose, but accepts his role as a mentor and shows the guys how the NBA works.
I don’t know what type of personality he has, but an example would be getting Bruce Bowen for Darius Songaila. If Bowen is the mentor type he would be a great example of how important defense is in the NBA.
Came to mind for me too
His clinic against the Wolves here late last year, when the Suns were already out of it but Hill and Shaq put out serious effort anyway, was a starting point on that coaching-by-example career. Grant destroyed the Wolves in the first half of that game, as I recall it.
Is he done wanting to play a decet role for a contender, though? One more San Antonio type stop seems in the cards.
Stackouse?
with the Mavs trying to do a S&T with Toronto for Marion, yet not wanting to let go of Howard, would Stack be enough of a quality vet for us to get involved? Toronto only wants expirings…
I think part of the reason Stack's involved
is that his $7 million contract is only, like, $2 mill guaranteed. So he’s more valuable to be traded for, and then bought out, than as an actual player.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
He is the kind of player I am thinking about
One problem is that I agree with SNP that the Wolves are probably not going to add much salary. If he would take a one or two year deal and the Wolves could do a sign and trade it would work.
The only other problem is I think he is going to want to go to a contender.
Grant Hill is talking to the Celtics, Knicks, and Suns
Right kind of guy, but will be too expensive. Plus, the Wolves could really use a SG and he’s a SF.
All good points
but Hill sounds like he’s only going to get offered $1.9m per year (same as last year), and I could see the contender angle, but the Knicks and Suns could quite possibly be as bad as the Wolves this year (and I really don’t feel like arguing why Hill might prefer to play in Phoenix or New York vs. Minneapolis, all money being equal).
I will say that in no way would I trade Love and the 6th pick for Greg Oden.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
updated model
is there a 2009 version of Terry Porter or Sam Mitchell? Maybe the Wolves should hire Mark Jackson to actually play.
Hmm - I forgot to divide by 2
I saw Grant’s contract was $3.8M — forgot to check the contract length.
So the Wolves might be able to swing $2M — but they won’t deliver any rings.
As to Love/6th for Oden…do you mean Flynn (6th pick)?
IFF (if and only if) Rubio was signed, then I’d do it. Yes, it’s a chance, but it’s swinging for the fences. But I doubt Portland would give him up just to get a short rookie PG and a short power less forward.
Of course...
Because those are the main things that matter when evaluating each of them.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 5:49 PM CDT up reply actions
I'm sorry for being a little obtuse
Two of the biggest topics here in the past few months have been Andy G’s question of “Would you trade Love and the 6th pick for Greg Oden” and “Is Minneapolis too small for Rubio?”—my apologies.
Although, I also have to side with my man pagingstanleyroberts here—size ain’t nothin’ but a number.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I see now.
There are obviously two camps. Those who believe that the duo of Jefferson and Love is a viable starting PF and C pair on a championship contending team — and those who don’t. I’m firmly in the NOT camp.
It will be interesting to see
if Kahn and (insert coach’s name here) agree with you. I could see a scenario where Rubio eventually comes over, succeeds, and they start looking to shuffle the deck even more by swapping out Love and/or AlJeff. Although, I have no proof that they can’t play with a PG like Rubio—the Brothers Gasol, for example, aren’t exactly high-wire acts either.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I'd like further eleboration on this point
The problem- people always say is they’re “undersized”. The problems this takes into account are the probability of getting a skilled 7-footer to compliment either of them. As I pointed out before it would take a rare player to compliment Al as a 5 (High-Post Player, Passer, Weak-Side Defender) to off-set the advantages with Love’s rebounding.
They’re probably never going to be considered an Elite Defensive Big Duo- I’ll grant you but then again Andrum Bynum and Pau Gasol are not by any means elite Defensive players.
As far as being undersized- it’s worth noting that the Rockets have played some pretty good B-Ball the last 2 years trotting out Chuck Hayes and Luis Scola at the 4-5 including a 20 plus game winning streak and some very good games against the Lakers. The Wolves issue is a lack of productivity at the 1-3.
"The Wolves issue is a lack of productivity at the 1-3"
including defense along the perimeter, as well.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
I think you are answering the wrong question.
Rather than “do Jefferson and Love fit the model of starting 4/5 on a championship team” you want to start out with “how do we get the best team on the court in the long term given our assets and options”? You can adjust your gameplay and on-court strategy based on your players with a competent coach.
The problem with chasing this hypothetical 5 man is that they are tough to come by. By all means be opportunistic and keep scouting college, Europe and pro players looking for the right fit. But if the FO were to only see a problem, rather than assets, in our current two best players then you are liable to make a big mistake.
In my opinion, you can do some real damage in the league with Al and K-Love at the 4/5. But they are going nowhere with Al and K-Love, Al and Oden, or wheover else in the front court if you don’t successfully upgrade the PG and wing.
BTW:
One of the main points I’ve gone back to over and over again on this site is that the best any GM in the league can hope for on his own is 45-55 wins. Anything beyond that requires luck. Upgrade whenever possible, fill out each roster spot with as good of a player as you can find (often regardless of position in the early stages) and hope for the best.
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I'm not in any camp
But these are currently the two best players on the team, and traditional centers just don’t play that much anymore. I think they can be two parts of a championship-contending team’s rotation. For example, if they had Noah (or a player of similar quality) as the other big guy and another athlete who could ably play the 4 in small lineups, that would be a pretty good rotation.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 7, 2009 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Traditional centers
are not only rare, but the few there are seem to get hurt a lot. Plus, next year’s draft contains a plethora of an alternative to the traditional center that I would like to try: a 6-9 to 6-11 player with good reach and can run and jump.
Or Dwight Howard if Orlando ever goes into rebuilding mode.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
My ideal big man..
….would be 6’9" with a 7 footer’s reach and wingspan. I think Howard is about as close to this as it gets.
The World's Leading Exporter of Small Area Quickness
www.canishoopus.com
Alade Aminu...
…seems to fit the bill. 6’10’’ with 7’3" wingspan and fairly athletic. He gets a decent amount of blocks and stls for a 4 and wasn’t taken in the draft.
Is he on a summer league team?
I would also accept his brother, Jerome Jordan and Jarvis Tornado in next year’s draft, as well.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
he should be
ive been saying the wolves should try to get aminu for awhile but unfortunatly i think i heard he’s on washington’s team
The Wiz
http://voices.washingtonpost.com/wizardsinsider/2009/07/wizards_announce_summer_league.html
He’s a project, at best. Might have been a better choice than Henk.
Let me tell you something about myself
I made a huge investment in Oden in my fantasy league. Traded Duncan for him the year before last because my team was terrible and I thought it would pay out down the road if he was near the quality a lot of us thought he would be. He. Has. Not. Paid. Off. Put me down as an unqualified NO on the Love/Flynn for Oden deal. Though I find it hard to believe it would be an option anyway.
Yeah...I wouldn't want my team trading for a player with possibly unlimited potential
Because I was stupid enough to trade Tim Duncan for him in my fantasy league when he was a rookie coming of micro-fracture.

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