The Old and Beautiful vs The Young and Restless: A Look At NBA Guards
by Minneapleseed on Jul 6, 2009 1:52 PM CDT
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PrintWith all the talk of a Rubio and Flynn back court being unable to compete in the NBA, I thought it might be a good idea to look at the landscape of the guards currently playing in the NBA as well as those who were drafted in the 2009 draft.
One of the main arguments for the combination of Rubio and Flynn being unable to work is "who will guard Kobe and the like?" This got me to thinking. Since everyone is in agreement that the Wolves won't be contending anytime in the next 2-5 years, is it really wise to base our frame of reference on current NBA rosters (I mean really, what good does it do to compare our current roster to the Lakers or Celtics or even the Magic for that matter? We aren't in their stratosphere and won't be this year or next), or would it serve Wolves fans better to look down the road a bit? My general thesis here is that all NBA players retire. Statistics point to guards really breaking down and/or retiring from the ages of 35-40. Since all players retire, the NBA will look much different in 2014 than it does today and, with that in mind, maybe the Wolves aren't in such a bad place with Rubio and Flynn.
Here is a table of players that played significant roles on their teams last season and players drafted in the 2009 NBA Draft broken down by age bracket. I don't think there are many glaring omissions and I tried to break players down in tiers, no stats here just generalizations with 1st tier being All-Star level players, 2nd tier being contributors/rotation players (not sure my editing job did a good job of making the tiers clear, but everyone should be able to get a general idea) and finally, I put 2009 draftees in the final tier of unproven.
Notice the long list of 30+ year old players. I don't think it is unreasonable to theorize that at least half of this list (those players 32+ years old) will be out of the league within the next 2-5 years based on historical retirement ages of NBA guards. The players on the list that have avoided any major injuries in their careers and are under 32 are more likely to be around, but not much past that 5 year mark.
In 5 years, the 26-29 year old group and some players from the 23-25 year old group will have moved into the 30+ group with some of these players still being at the top of their games and some dropping to end of bench type vet players and so on down the line. In 2014 Rubio and Flynn still are in the 23-25 year old group.
Now, I know 2014 is a long way away, but do any fans living in reality believe the Wolves can truly contend before, say, 2012? Didn't think so. Breaking this list down further would show the back court combinations currently playing (I will leave the matching of back court players up to you, fair reader) and give Wolves fans an idea of who Rubio and Flynn would match-up against going forward. Granted, no one can predict all the player movements that will happen from now to 2014 and I'm not saying this is a perfect match or even that it will work, I'm just trying to offer some perspective on who will realistically be around when Rubio and Flynn hit their stride in the NBA.
Thanks for reading and any comments or extra insight into this train of thought would be greatly welcomed and appreciated.
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Awesome post
and recommended at least much for the ability to format columns as for the content.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
Rubio/Flynn
Wow, quite an analysis. I think the concern is just as much about how they play together offensively as it is who they match up against. Rubio has the length to guard some offensively limited 3’s, such that you could put your defensive specialist like Brewer on the better 2’s in the league. On offense however, neither of these two are proven shooters. At least with Curry/Rubio, you can be 1,000% positive that Curry is capable of playing off the ball on offense. If Rubio and/or Flynn ever develop a reliable outside shot, then I think there is huge upside with playing them together for stretches.
That being said, how they play together doesn’t even matter to me right now. As long as one of the two develops into a big-time stud for us, I’m happy. It means we have another position in our core starting 5 locked up. We’ll figure out what to do with the other player if that happens.
I'm not 1000% positive...
That Curry can play off the ball on offense. He had it in his hands more during his college career than Flynn did. He’s a better jump shooter, and he’ll probably make spot-up jumpers, but what’s to say he won’t be vastly more effective on dribble pull-ups than spotting up? For example, Michael Beasley is a much better shooter off the dribble than spotting up (no stats to back this up but a lot of observation), but doing that disrupts the flow of the offense.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 6, 2009 5:24 PM CDT up reply actions
I meant reply to Rascal
His post was excellent. I believe with Curry when Davidson made thier elite 8 run- Jason Richards was the primary Ball-Handler. This is why Curry player so much off the ball.
I think the idea is that Rubio is long enough and good enough off the ball on D to at least challenge elite wings on Defense. I don’t think Rubio was taken with the idea that he’s going to stop Kobe-next year. Rather the idea being his ability to play passing lanes, defend off the ball, and lentgh will at least make him a pest on opposing wings.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 6, 2009 10:57 PM CDT up reply actions
True...
they are unproven, but I think both are a bit underrated and are being projected in roles they aren’t best suited for.
Rubio shot 42.3% from 3pt range last season (only 39.1% overall with a very low 37.4% from 2pt range. Not sure where/how he is missing all these 2pt attempts) and has shown improvement each year from distance. He also gets to the line at a decent clip.
Jonny Flynn, on the other hand, shot only 31.7% from 3pt range last year, but a very solid 52% from 2pt range while shooting well from mid-range and showing a knack for getting to the free throw line.
Both players have shown the ability to facilitate the offense and Flynn has shown the ability to get create points on his own, although he could be more efficient and less of a volume shooter than he was at Syracuse.
I think if the names of the players was taken out of the equation and someone showed me two players who complemented each other statistically from a shooting standpoint like these 2 do (one an improving and maybe underrated long range shooter, one good from mid-range and in) I would be inclined to think they could play together offensively.
Rubio's shooting
is still suspect. I agree the 42% is impressive, but I need a larger sample size from him before declaring him to be a good outside shooter. And in prior seasons from beyond the arc he was spotty at best, so right now we have 22 games in the ACB league this past season and that’s it. Now if he really can hit that set-shot 3 in the NBA, that would be absolutely huge in terms of his all-around impact on a game. And yeah, he and Flynn really could be complimentary on offense.
In terms of Rubio’s poor 2-point shooting, I suspect he is a poor shooter while on the move, meaning pull-up J’s, floaters, etc. Chauncey Billups is a successful PG who has never had an efficient mid-range game, but made up for it by getting to the line and hitting the 3-point shot. Rubio is such a supreme playmaker that if he can just be a 35-40% threat from beyond the arc and get to the line consistently, his lack of a mid-range game will be a liability I’ll gladly accept.
by Rascal Flatts on Jul 6, 2009 4:17 PM CDT up reply actions
I wonder how much Rubio’s FG% was impacted by his wrist last year. Also, the Euro game doesn’t seem to favor slashers.. I believe there’s no defensive 3 second rule, and the 3pt line is shorter so the paint is going to be very crowded. He seems like the type of layup scoring slasher who would do much better with the added space in the NBA.
Also, you’re dead on that his shooting %‘s are a questionable due to the sample size, but at least they show some reason for optimism in that department. From his stats and what I’ve seen, he seems to have the potential to be a solid set shooter from distance but very little in-between game off the dribble. I continue to see parallels between him and Kidd, especially in this area. If all the talk of playing RR and Flynn together isn’t just a smokescreen, I can see these two playing together much the same way that Kidd and Barea/Terry do. Kidd did a lot of spotting up off the ball and checking two guards while the other guys handled the ball last year and it worked fairly well. It allowed him to make plays if they were available but also gave him plenty of opportunities to spot up and shoot open 3’s, which he’s actually pretty good at. Granted, Rubio needs to show he can check 2-guards for this work, but I think he can get there.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
Agree
There are 48 minutes of PT at the PG slot and an addititonal 10-15 minutes that they could be on the court together, perhaps more when you think about the Kidd/Terry/Barea example you pointed out. The bottom-line is that this whole Flynn vs. Rubio issue is a bunch of crap. The critics are being simple-minded in their objections to us taking two PG’s. Criticizing Flynn as the BPA is a legitimate beef, and one that I question myself, but objecting to the pick because he is also a PG is just B.S.
by Rascal Flatts on Jul 7, 2009 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
would it be insane...
to bring back Shaddy? I didn’t realize that he is still only 24. The guy can play, he needs a hard, hard kick in the ass…but he has talent. And he’d be cheap.
I'd rather bring back Gerald Green...
… for the veteran’s minimum. He has more talent than Shaddy, he would cost the same, he’s only 23, and even though he isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed, he doesn’t have the same butthole factor playing against him that Shaddy does. His upside remains significant and for a rebuilding team with no starting two guard, you could do a lot worse than taking a flier on Green at the vet’s minimum.
Sure. Nothing to lose, although man, that kid was dumb. I’m pretty sure you could put my 5’10 self out there and I’d have more of a defensive impact than Green did most nights.
But yeah, no to Shaddy. Love his talent and feel bad for him, but he’s just too weird in the head.. don’t bring that back into the locker room.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
McCants best contributions to the team
would be on Twitter.
by College Wolf on Jul 7, 2009 10:03 AM CDT up reply actions
figured…but I always had a soft spot for him. When he was on and focused, he was the best player on the floor. Those games were too few and far between I am afraid. I wonder how things could have turned out if we’d have had KG or another veteran around to keep him in line.
He's a match winner at his very best
but we only got it about 4 times a year.
The gap between that and the rest of his output was too great.
Too bad about that knee injury
his rookie year. Guy played above the rim before that, your soft spot would have been justified.
Status of Brewer
Not completely related, but fun nonetheless.
So two weeks ago I was hanging out at the Pool at the Palms (Vegas, of course), sporting my authentic Gugliotta home whites and this chick approached me asking if I were really a fan. Upon my affirmation, she said she’s never seen anyone wear one – but her boyfriend plays for them. WHAT?! “Yeah,” she replied. “Do you know Corey Brewer?” I was only slightly skeptical, as the cellulite on her thighs and pale complexion was marginally offset by her massive anterior and posterior assets. I proceeded to query her on the status of Corey’s rehabilitation and how his knee was really doing. She said, among lots of other things, that he wasn’t “allowed out” much (unsure it this was dictated by the team, a doctor, his agent, or another supposed relation), but he was getting around fine and had even participated in a few pick-up games. I’m glad to see he is on the Summer League roster as well.
If for entertainment value along, I thought I’d share…
Funny...
I heard a similar story about a woman in Mpls who was “seeing” Brewer. I sense a pattern…
That said, Brew is one of my favorite Twolves players ever. No one plays harder than he does—he gives everything he has every single night. The same can’t be said for many players.
is it me
or is 6’4" a decent height when just looking at the two columns on the left.
Definitely. There’s a very noticeable dearth of young, potential impact 2 guards.. For the immediate future it looks like the days of the big power SG like Kobe, Vince and Tmac are that the dominant perimeter players going forward are going to be small SG’s and PG’s. Of course, the next few drafts could change that, but a Flynn/Rubio combo doesn’t seem too crazy when you take that into consideration.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
The Wolves with their current roster right now cannot win until at least 2012, I agree.
But they can make a trade and everything could easily change.
What does "contend" mean?
It’s used a lot in this post. For the NBA title? Western title, division title, playoff spot? Because I think it’s possible that we could be in the playoffs by 2012. A lot can happen in the league in 3 years, way too difficult to forecast, but it could happen if things bounce right.
Maybe not a huge point, just curious.
I'd arbitrarily put it at
being one of the top five or six teams. The Wolves have “contended” in my mind in just one year—the one in which they went to the finals.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
snp looks like mobile comments work now kind of. sweet.
by revprodeji on Jul 7, 2009 3:09 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
Age
Did anyone actually have a problem with their ages? I would take any of the top tier age 19-22 ahead of the lower tiers aged 23-30+
No problem with the ages...
and you are spot on with wanting any top tier 19-22 year olds over lower tier 23-30+ year olds. The whole idea of the post was to show that after the current crop of “big” guards is out of the league, there really aren’t many to take their places.
The whole notion that Rubio and Flynn couldn’t match up on D seems to have been predicated on size issues and I was just hoping to dispel that myth by showing the actual landscape of NBA guards.
Next I’d like to do a piece on NBA Centers so people can move past this idea that a 7+ footer can be had at any time.
by Minneapleseed on Jul 7, 2009 10:35 PM CDT up reply actions
A Couple Thoughts
1. The problem that people have in knocking the Flynn/Rubio backcourt is the assumption that Rubio couldn’t defend a 2 when a lot of his skill-set is more suited to defending 2’s. It also assumes that quickness can’t create mismatches on Offense as easily as height.
2. I really like the idea for your next piece so people can get this idea out of their head that the Wolves are going to easily find a skilled 7 footer.
by Jose Cordoba on Jul 7, 2009 10:44 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly...
assumptions and inaccurate projections should be the tagline for the Wolves summer of ’09.
I got motivated by your interest in the idea, so I put together the piece on NBA centers. In hindsight, I should have included the projected draft class of 2010 to give an idea on what the near future of NBA bigs will look like…
by Minneapleseed on Jul 8, 2009 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions
We are a LONG way from worrying about
who’s going to guard Brandon Roy.
I don’t know why it pleases you so much to come here and act smug. Guess what: we all know the Blazers are much better than the Wolves, and will be for the foreseeable future.
by Eric in Madison on Jul 7, 2009 6:16 PM CDT up reply actions
Right...
Because there’s no way the team will be drafting or adding more players who aren’t currently on the roster for the next 8 years. The Wolves definitely need to figure that out this instant. I’m surprised the press hasn’t covered this urgent situation yet.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 7, 2009 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions
This is Silly
While Brewer hasn’t shown much on the Offensive End of the Court- he actually shows quite a bit of potential on D. His performances two years ago against Paul Pierce serve as an example.
As far as the Blazers- it should be noted that the Wolves began rebuilding thier team three years after Portland did. So if you add Ricky Rubio and an Evan Turner/Cole Aldrich along with a Free Agent- then things start to look a bit different. Where as after this Summer- Portland’s options to acquire talent become quite limited. I would also add that Portland’s ability to compete for a Championship is going to depend on Greg Oden’s health where as generally Bigs don’t get more durable as they age.
I was just refering to his performances against Brandon Roy
And the Wolves began rebuilding the same year the Blazers did. When Portland shipped out Zach Randolph and the Wolves traded KG.
Wrong
Portland started their rebuild in 2004 when they traded Rasheed Wallace. Unless one happens to think of seasons of 27 and 21 wins contending. Considering Portland already had Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge on the roster at the time they traded Randolph this claim seems like a stretch.
Forgive me if I'm coming off as Rude
I just think in comparing Portland’s situation to the Wolves that their decision to bottom out was made three years earlier via the Rasheed Wallace trade.
Not rude...
just completely accurate. The Blazers blew up the Jailblazers experiment when Sheed was shipped out, Randolph was left over and a stop gap. The team was going to build around Roy and Aldridge and made no bones about wanting to be rid of Randolph. The Blazers didn’t have to strip the team down to the studs, they just had to jettison their garbage.
The Wolves had no ready made pieces to build with when KG was shipped out, this rebuild is from the studs out.
by Minneapleseed on Jul 7, 2009 10:43 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, man.
Don’t apologize for telling the truth. You can’t start measuring the rebuild from the moment you become good again.
by princelyfrank on Jul 8, 2009 1:03 AM CDT up reply actions
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