Wolves Offensive/Defensive/Overall Depthcharts 09-10
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 11, 2009 11:04 PM CDT
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Just for the sake of conversation I thought I would throw out the current roster depth charts based upon positional PER for Offense, Defense and Overall. While this tells us nothing about how the wolves will play it does help to summarize the positions of need and create basic player brackets to help remove some player hype. Check out the numbers below. They are all complied from the 2008-2009 stats from 82Games.com.
| Offensive Depth Chart based upon offensive position PER | |||||||||||
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |||||||
| 1st | Bobby Brown | 10.0 | Q Rich | 12.1 | Q Rich | 13.8 | Al Jefferson | 17.9 | Al Jefferson | 26.3 | |
| 2nd | Atkins | 4.1 | Wilkins | 8.8 | Corey Brewer | 11.9 | Kevin Love | 17.6 | Kevin Love | 22.6 | |
| 3rd | Jonny Flynn | ? | * | Corey Brewer | 29.0 | Gomes | 10.5 | Songaila | 16.9 | Pecherov | 16.3 |
| 4th | Ricky Rubio | ? | Wayne Ellington | ? | Wilkins | 9.2 | Gomes | 16.0 | Songaila | 15.2 | |
| 5th | Brian Cardinal | 8.4 | Brian Cardinal | 9.0 | Hollins | 12.7 | |||||
| Defensive Depth Chart based upon defensive position PER | |||||||||||
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |||||||
| 1st | Atkins | 9.7 | Q Rich | 15.0 | Brian Cardinal | 13.2 | Al Jefferson | 13.5 | Hollins | 13.9 | |
| 2nd | Bobby Brown | 15.0 | Wilkins | 15.0 | Corey Brewer | 16.3 | Brian Cardinal | 16.3 | Al Jefferson | 19.2 | |
| 3rd | Jonny Flynn | ? | * | Corey Brewer | 11.1 | Gomes | 17.5 | Songaila | 17.1 | Songaila | 19.2 |
| 4th | Ricky Rubio | ? | Wayne Ellington | ? | Wilkins | 19.4 | Kevin Love | 19.1 | Kevin Love | 19.5 | |
| 5th | Q Rich | 19.6 | Gomes | 19.9 | Pecherov | 24.9 | |||||
| Overall Depth Chart based upon overall position PER | |||||||||||
| PG | SG | SF | PF | C | |||||||
| 1st | Bobby Brown | -5.0 | Q Rich | -2.9 | Brian Cardinal | -4.8 | Al Jefferson | 4.5 | Al Jefferson | 7.1 | |
| 2nd | Atkins | -5.6 | Wilkins | -6.2 | Gomes | -5.6 | Songaila | -0.1 | Kevin Love | 3.0 | |
| 3rd | Jonny Flynn | ? | * | Corey Brewer | 17.8 | Corey Brewer | -5.7 | Kevin Love | -1.6 | Hollins | -1.3 |
| 4th | Ricky Rubio | ? | Wayne Ellington | ? | Q Rich | -5.8 | Gomes | -3.9 | Songaila | -4.0 | |
| 5th | Wilkins | -10.2 | Brian Cardinal | -7.3 | Pecherov | -8.6 | |||||
* Brewer played very few minutes at the 2 last year and so his numbers are really skewed. I just thought I should leave them in and note them because I believe his lack of strength is less noticeable at the 2 than at the 3.
PG/SG Issues - After preparing and reviewing these I skipped over the lack of experienced quality players at the PG and SG positions as it has been discussed quite frequently in other posts.
SF - I noticed that Cardinal has a higher SF PER than Gomes. As much grief as Brewer gets, his numbers are almost as good as Gomes (overall that is). This just confirms to me that he is a role player at best. Obviously there is some fudge room in the stats based upon situational differences. A bucket against the Lakers starters should count more than a bucket against the clippers scrubs. On a side note I am kind of looking forward to getting a full season of looking at Brewers defensive/offensive numbers split out between SG and SF. My theory is that he is better suited to guarding SGs because of his size (just too scrawny).
PF/C - Other than the Smith trade (whose production is outlined below) they are in pretty decent shape with arguably 3 deep at each position of players that actually belong in the NBA.
| Off | Def | Overall | ||
| Craig Smith | PF | 17.5 | 15.8 | 1.8 |
| Craig Smith | C | 23.9 | 16.2 | 7.7 |
I am working on an analysis between the wolves players productivity across positions (including offensive/defensive/overall) versus other teams just to see where we stand. I will have a lot better idea after this next season, but I want to be able to create some league averages as a baseline.
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Injuries v. expectations
Brewer and Jefferson both had ACL reconstruction last year. It takes a year or more to recover from this surgery, and the athlete’s knee is never the same. B-ball is the hardest on the knees of any sport.
How are you factoring in the injury factor? Brewer won’t be fully recovered until the 2nd half of the 2009-10 season, and Jefferson won’t be until 2010-2011.
And when fully recovered, neither guy will be 100% of what he was.
Put that into your calculations and see what comes out.
A couple points
1. “Put that in your pipe and smoke it mister?!?!?!?!” Way to throw down.
2. I think you are confusing Microfracture knee surgery with ACL injuries. ACL injuries affect your ability to cut and change directions quickly. The recovery might not be 100% but they have made tremendous strides in improving the rehab procedures. This shouldn’t impact Jefferson because his position in the low post doesn’t require as much lateral movement at great acceleration. Brewer on the other hand is another matter. Due to his contract status (may not even be picked up for the season after this one, there is really no point in guessing because we will all see how he defends next season. He didn’t look that much slower during summer league. Big Al will be fine come middle of this season. If Brewer wasn’t fine…he wouldn’t have been playing in summer league.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 12, 2009 7:25 AM CDT up reply actions
The other thing to consider...
Is that Brewer’s had 2 more months’ worth of rehab due to suffering the injury earlier.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Aug 12, 2009 11:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Good point
Which is why I simply noted that Al should be fully ready come mid season. I think he will be able to practice come training camp…but won’t be in full game shape for at least a month after that…not like we are going to win a whole bunch of games anyway. Might as well use the time to get Love and our other PF/C’s some playing time to either develop them or figure out if they don’t belong while slowly bringing Big Al along.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 12, 2009 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
your language confuses me. gomes is only a role player or brewer?
by revprodeji on Aug 12, 2009 2:16 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
I think that both
are role players on middle of the road NBA teams. Starters need to be well rounded players and neither of them are.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 12, 2009 7:27 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree on your Brewer assessment
If you look at his rookie year Opponent PER numbers, where the sample size is a little larger, you will also see that he did much better guarding SG’s vs. SF’s. He just doesn’t have the strength to match up with most SF’s. And he’s only long by SG standards. When he plays SF, he has average length (8"7 overhead reach). He just looks long because he is so damn skinny.
A more accurate SG positional PER for Brewer would be
Def: 13.2
Off: 9.8
Net: -3.4
Which would make him fairly equivalent to Q Rich, but with the added benefit that Al and Love would look alot better with a better defender on the perimeter.
Numbers were adjusted from rookie year ratios between SG/SF and I used the SF 2008 numbers to force the SG numbers. Faulty but probably as close to accurate as possible.
by TheEvilProfessor on Aug 12, 2009 12:31 PM CDT up reply actions
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