FanPost

Wolves' Long-term Roster Status Update

Here is the breakdown on the current wolves’ roster for those that I think may potentially end up in spots 1-7. I included a reference list from my last post about player grades and the basic roster spot breakdown below. I have left off all players that I believe will either end up as a replacement player or off of the team in the near future. First they will be classified into the player buckets and then the team roster spots.

Players: Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, Jonny Flynn, Wayne Ellington, Ricky Rubio

Notable Exceptions: Gomes, an historical sometimes starter, but since his positions PER for both offense and defense are worse than Loves’ rookie stats, I am just going to assume that he is really an 8th man at best as an offensive punch for the second unit. I have assumed that Brewer will be gone as he won’t sign a decent contract or he will be in the same roster area as Gomes (8-9) as a defensive specialist.

Stars - None, at least not until Jefferson can prove he can play D and take advantage of getting easy assists from his double teams.

Very Good -

Al Jefferson (AKA Big Al) - Let's face it, even with his horrible D, he still has pretty good net PERs of over 4.5 and 7.1 at the PF and C positions, respectively. That is with the porous perimeter D last year...I expect closer to 7 and 9, respectively after he fully comes back from injury (Gasol territory), which would move him up to Star status.

Good -

Kevin Love (AKA Kevlar) – His I think that Love will likely be in the Very Good bucket by the end of the year provided he can bring his defensive PER numbers up from around 19 to closer to 15 by the end of the year. IF he can't, then he stays in the good region.

Ricky Rubio (AKA Blonde Ricky) - He is an enigma to me. On the one hand he has arguably the highest ceiling due to his court vision and could end up like a Jason Kidd, which would put him in the star category, but I can't help but shake the feeling that he lacks something else needed to progress to that level. At the end of the day I think he ends up as Very Good by using his court vision to give teammates better looks, but never becomes an all around threat.

Jonny Flynn (AKA J-Fly) - Personally I think that of the three "Good" players, J-Fly will end up being the best and will end up the Star category vs. Ricky. This assumes that he get a handle on turnovers. There is just a feeling I get with certain players when they can will their team to victory that I think he has. I think that he will be awesome in a press defense with his speed and leaping ability, not to mention that he more so than Ricky can penetrate at will. Not to mention he just seems like a leader.

Side note on the other rookie: Wayne Ellington (AKA "The Duke") - I think that at best he ends up as a good player who can be the starting SG when paired with a very good or better SF, or plays into that 7 slot where they exist to provide a skill set mix. At worst he ends up as a replacement level player…kind or an offensive anti-Brewer.

We will know how to classify Al and Love by the end of the season, while the rookies will both need 2 full seasons in the NBA before we can accurately predict where they will fit.

Front Court Players:

I can see a couple of different scenario’s playing out. First, Al will be in the starting 5, period, end of story. Second, if Love improves his D, he is likely in the starting 5, but a front court of Al and Love will need someone in that 6-7 spot that is almost starting quality and complements their areas of weakness. If he can’t improve his D, then that complementary player needs to be of a slightly higher quality to step up into the front court as a starter, which would leave Love as our bench superstar…ala Odom (well kind of).

PGs:

Assuming both Rubio and Flynn turn out, I would see Rubio as the traditional starting PG at the 1 spot since Flynn is the better shooter right now and can spend a small (please note limited) amount of the game at the 2 in select scenarios but will really be the 6th man. Having both Love and Flynn on the same change of pace lineup kind of makes sense (I see PnR all day).

If Rubio pans out and Flynn doesn’t (just keeps turning the ball over), the Rubio will still be the starting point and Flynn either just be his backup or the change of pace PG of the bench players. I think it is pretty much a no brainer that this is rock bottom. I just don’t see how he isn’t at least at Bassy’s production.

If Flynn pans out and Rubio busts, then Flynn is the starting PG, while Rubio may end up not be better than Bassy.

So between Rubio//Flynn we definitely have a 1, and we potentially have the 4/5 filled with Love and Al (assuming an athletic 4/5 described above of almost starting quality) and potentially have our 6th man as well. Areas left to fill: An athletic 4/5 of just below starting quality, dynamic SF who has a well rounded game (slashing, 3pt, jumper, etc) who had a good defensive game as well as potentially a SG. The Duke may be able to be a starter with a good enough SF and Flynn at the point (I think Rubio may need someone more athletic at the 2). A penny for your thoughts?

The SG/SF who stands out in my mind is Evan Turner. In just reading about PF/C prospects the name Solomon Alabi kind of stuck out…anyone know anything about him?

Reference:

Stars – Guys you think "oh crap they're going to light us up again...or I don't want to end up on this poster/Headline." These are players that can flat out impose their will on the game.

Very Good – Players who are complete (don’t have major holes in their games whether its that they can’t/wont’ defend, don’t ever pass, etc.), plus have some ability that really sets them apart and their mere presence gives their teammates opportunities.

Good – Players are almost complete but tend to have other skills that help their other teammates (like very good defenders who are not total offensive liabilities), but have much more value as complementary players than as a go-to player.

Spots 1-5: We need starters at the 1-5 that fall in the first three buckets. We can debate the proper mix of stars/very good/good players that are necessary later.

Spots 6-7: These spots require players whose skill sets vary to the point where they allow the coaches to significantly change how both the offense and defense can operate and provide the necessary change of pace to match up with any other team's starters.

Spots 8-12: These are your replacement players. They can fall in the Bad column (preferably still good), although hopefully never the stiffs unless you are in the rebuilding stage. The purpose of these players is to comprise any skill sets where the coaches feel the team is lacking. Such as a superior shot blocker who is athletic to prevent lane penetration when paired with a starter to counter a freakishly talented slashing opponent, etc. They along with spots 6-7 should be able to at least hold their own against the opposing team's bench players.