The Underpaid and Overpaid in 2008-09 " The Wages of Wins Journal
Dave Berri runs down the NBA's most over- and underpaid players based on Win Shares. Mike Miller was the only Timberwolf to make the underpaid list. Sebastian Telfair and Ryan Gomes made the overpaid list.
7 months ago
wyn
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That's a cool study
But how in the world do they get that Mike Miller produced 13 wins to Telfair’s -2. INHO Telfair was far better than Mike Miller last year.
Great, now Kansas City has TWO delusional GM's who think that contending in 2010 is still a possibility. Note to an NFL GM: if you win 2 games one year, dont expect signing four players whose ages sum to 141 and expect to make the playoffs the next year. Super reach for Tyson Jackson, huge contract to a QB who's still very much a question mark, questionable FA signing, why have we already given Pioli the benefit of the doubt? On the other hand, I have nothin to say about Dayton Moore, he's dead to me.
by RoyalFlush on Aug 7, 2009 1:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
For more about win shares, check out this article
http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html
www.canishoopus.com
by wyn on Aug 7, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Bullpoop
No way on God’s green earth was Mike Miller worth anywhere close to $24 million. That fails to pass the laugh test.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
by SBG on Aug 7, 2009 1:31 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
And the common sense test
Miller was appalling last season.
Only cowards pray for rain.
by Auswolf on Aug 7, 2009 4:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions 0 recs
$9.3 million underpaid for what Mike brought to the table?
I am not sure his agent would even make that argument when it’s time to re-up with the Wiz.
I am not an expert on the win-share methodology, but am wondering if Mike’s focal point in the offense post-Al injury skewed the #’s.
by Punisher#8 on Aug 7, 2009 1:32 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
To me, Wages of Wins
highly values players who get more rebounds than what would be traditionally expected at the position. I’m not saying that the stat is useless or useful—it just seems to be a common denominator of surprisingly-ranked players.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
by PoorDick on Aug 7, 2009 3:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
WOW/ Mike Miller
1. The question is how valuable rebounds are in the course of winning a Basketball game. Considering you win Basketball games by outscoring your opponent on account of winning possesions. This is done two ways (Score or Stop Your Opponenent from scoring). Rebounds serve a tremendous value in that they either extend possessions or end them on the Defensive end. This is why the formula values them as such. This is why it’s considered one of the Four Factors
2. To claim that Mike Miller is a worse player than Bassy is silly. Considering Miller basically acquired RR for us. Where as Bassy’s value is part of a 3-man deal to acquire Quentin Richardson. If Bassy’s better on account of Plus/Minus- “Is Brian Cardinal better than Kevin Durant on account of Plus/Minus?”
3.Miller’s issue was surronding talent who couldn’t shoot more than anything. I think he’s a better player than Hedo only Hedo was surronded by capable shooters. The only problem with Berri’s formula is that it probably undervalues shooting volume where as most casual fans overvalue scoring.
by Jose Cordoba on Aug 7, 2009 6:50 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm still not with you.
Miller is better than Bassy, Miller is a good player, rebounds are important.
But I think what I am looking at on WOW states that Miller is responsible for ~14 wins out of our 24. That proportion doesn’t make sense at all. Apologize if I am missing something obvious, what is it?
by Punisher#8 on Aug 7, 2009 9:31 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
WOW is problematic
in that it doesn’t really evaluate defense apart from numbers and there’s no differential in shooting metrics on account of volume. Where as PER probably goes too far the other way. This is why WOW can rank Miller so high where as PER much lower.
1. Miller’s contributions were not why the Timberwolves lost 58 games. He shot a good percentage from the field, rebounded, and created for teammates. Put him in a better situation for his game where he’s surronded by shooters and finishers than he looks better. I stand by my comment he was better than Hedo Turkgulou last year. The only issue was who he was playing alongside.
2. As far as what he’s worth on the Open-Market this is hard to say. I don’t think Dave Berri would literally argue that Chris Paul should be paid 49 Million dollars a year. Berri’s point is that out of positive contributions towards NO wins- Paul is responsible for 5/6th of them. Positive contributions being defined being above average in areas that help teams win games as opposed to lose them. This is why Miller ranks high.
3. Miller probably’s worth more than the MLE. If Hedo got 10.6 Million per year for 5. Maybe Miller could get this on the Open Market with a solid enough season. I tend to think Hedo’s overpaid- but Miller had a higher TS%, better rebounding rate, and a slightly worse PPR. Where as Neither are great defenders.
by Jose Cordoba on Aug 8, 2009 7:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The issue with Miller
was opportunity cost. How many more wins could have Miller produced had he been willing to shoot more? None of the advanced stat methodologies can tell the true story with the ‘08-’09 Miller. But what our own eyes saw was a player that stubbornly subverted his greatest gift supposedly for the purpose of the greater good. In a year that we most desperately needed his gifts, he decides to go off the reservation. Context matters.
by Rascal Flatts on Aug 9, 2009 9:21 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs



















