Sticky Ricky
by Stop-n-Pop on Sep 1, 2009 10:39 PM CDT
91 comments
Well, there it is. Closure...for now. With the news that Ricky Rubio will spend, at least, the next 2 years in Spain comes a moment to sit back and take stock of what we know at the moment: a clear twist in the long road from La Penya to the NBA.
The Alpha and Omega in any discussion about Rubio and the Wolves is to answer the following question: What else was David Kahn supposed to have done? Had he passed on Rubio with not one but two lottery picks, he would have been ripped for not selecting the BPA. Had he selected Rubio and traded him to the Knicks, he would have been ripped for exhibiting nepotism with his former boss (to say nothing of the lopsided nature of any Knicks-based deal that could be offered). Had he picked Rubio and traded him for the rumored Houston package, he would have been ripped for not getting maximum value out of a hot commodity. Had he made an under-the-table deal with Joventut, he would have been ripped for giving the Wolves and their fans Joe Smith 2.0. On this particular issue, Kahn is to his critics as Barack Obama is to Glenn Beck: He's going to lose no matter what he does so why worry about the criticism? (Also, the majority of reporting on the Rubio matter seems to be more concerned with the political horse race than whether or not what Kahn is effectively using his assets...but that's a topic for another post.)
The number one thing that can be taken away from any criticism of Kahn and his handling of the Rubio situation is that he is getting ripped for a) doing exactly what he said he would do from day 1, and b) traveling the most reasonable route he, and his team, could possibly traverse along La Route Rubio. Again: What else would critics have Kahn do?
From the get-go Kahn has preached patience, a willingness to work with the Rubio family, and a need for transparency at every step of the way with his smallish fan base. On each of these points he has delivered the goods. He has not wavered from his stated goals and there is not a single move that can be pointed to which can be placed in the context of other possible moves and not be viewed as the best available option at that particular point in time.
All of this says nothing about the basic fact that this dilemma always has been, and will continue to be, a math problem for the Rubio family. What level of financial security are/were they willing to live with and can this happy balance be achieved when weighing the buyout against a future contract? Lost in all the hubbub about Rubio's choice to stay in Europe is the great liklihood that an 18 year old professional baller made a sound financial decision. More on that in a bit.
The second point that needs to be taken away from the turn in the road is the growing notion that Camp Rubio deserves the lion's share of the blame for Blonde Ricky's current situation. While the 18 year old may have made a sound financial decision in the context of weighing playing for the Wolves vs. Barcelona, he has, on the whole, put himself into a situation that was made worse by his camp's inability to properly gauge pre-draft hype and, apparently, an inability to use a calculator, the NBA rookie salary scale, and an IRS income tax spread sheet. My best guess is that they figured they could live with, at the very least, the 4th pick's money and once Tyreke Evans started going all LeBron in the PG Battle Royales, they were unable to create enough steam to get him back in the top-4 mix. Speaking of salary scales...
At first glance, the NBA's rookie salary scale for the 5th pick seems somewhat reasonable: roughly $15.2 million over 4 years. However, this does not take into account three key items that turn $15 large into a number that doesn't hold up well against the reported buyout number of $5.28 million. First, $8.42 million of the $15.2 million rookie scale is tied up in two years of player options. A good friend of mine works as an actuary for Mutual of Omaha and he finds it far-fetched that any loan guarantee would be written while taking into account a non-guaranteed payment option. In other words, Rubio is really only guaranteed about $6.78 million in pre-tax earnings over the course of two seasons. Secondly, at no point in any of the Rubio reporting have we ever learned anything about the payment structure of the buyout. Would it be a lump sum? Would it be over 2 years? Would it be over the length of the full 4-year rookie scale? Again, my actuary friend finds it implausible that this debt would be paid on anything other than a lump sum or a two year scale. Even if Rubio were able to secure an insurance policy that extends beyond his guaranteed years, he would face a high premium that may make it an unattractive option vis-a-vis the Barcelona contract. Third, Rubio would face a 35% federal income tax combined with state taxes in Minnesota and every state he plays in. To the best of my knowledge, his overall tax burden would be 42.85%. In other words, his pre-duty/pre-agent fee take home pay for the first two years of his rookie contract is roughly $3.87 mil. That's $1.4 million in the hole if you add in the reported buyout. If he were able to secure a four year repayment plan, his post-tax take home pay would be roughly $8.69 million; $3.41 mil over the buyout over 4 years and $825k/year pre-agent/duty pay. The bottom line here is that it's pretty hard to look at the non-endorsement money on the table in the NBA and have it compare favorably to what Rubio will earn in Europe over the next two years. At the end of the day, the Wolves could only contribute $500k while Barcelona ponied up over $5 million. Rubio likely chose the far safer, and more economically sound, option.
Third, Wolves fans around the world can be thankful that Bill Simmons was not granted his GM wishes with their favorite team. Here is one of his tweets from earlier in the day:
Dear 'Sota: Your GM shoulda traded Rubio's rights from Day 1. Now he is playing the blame game. You cannot accept this.
Really? Here is what Simmons wrote about Rubio on draft day:
4. It took 21 minutes before someone (Fran Fraschilla) gushed about Rubio's once-in-a-generation passing, two-steps-ahead-of-everyone timing and incredible career (playing professionally since age 14). Everyone, and I mean EVERYONE, is going to regret not being more excited about Ricky Rubio on June 25, 2009. More on this in a second.
...
5:03: Phew. Sota took him. The best part: Stern going into "I'm gonna be extra gregarious right now because they'll be replaying this in Europe!" mode as he announced the pick. Gotta say, I can't kill Kahn for turning Randy Foye and Mike Miller into Rubio. Nice work. An orgasmic Fraschilla says Rubio is "the best passer in the last decade of drafts" and he's "got a Gretzky-like feel, he sees the game two and three plays ahead." Totally agree.
Simmons follows up his tweet about Kahn needing to trade a once-in-a-generation passer with this little ditty:
Rubio needed big market endorsement $$$ to buy out other deal. LA-NY-Chi-Hou-etc. Minny couldn't work. Kahn messed up. Shoulda flipped him.
Of course. As if the bottom line of a player needing to be taken in the top 4 to make the ledger sheet work would have magically disappeared with theoretical endorsement dollars in a weak economy had he just been traded away to a bigger market...for whom exactly? Just imagine for a moment had the Rubio math problem played itself out in the New York media. A better question might be the following: Is there a better team for Rubio than the Wolves to work out this simple matter of the bottom line?
I'm looking forward to reading Simmons' basketball book, but here's hoping it's more coherent than what he's offered up so far in relation to Kahn and Rubio.
Wrapping this little ditty up, I will once again point to the simple idea that Kahn has done what he has had to do in order to most effectively wield Rubio, the asset. For his critics, what else would you have him do in order to maximize what he has on the table? Please, do not give me any New York trade scenarios.
Finally, in retrospect, the selection of Jonny Flynn seems to be the correct pick and if there were to be some hand wringing about the whole ordeal it is that Sacramento didn't jump on Rubio leaving the Wolves with Flynn and Tyreke Evans.
What say you?
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Rubio
Problem I see is that if Flynn developes, Rubio will be asking for a trade, or he will stay in Spain and Minn get nothing
He has already made the decision to postpone FA, rather than compete with Flynn for paying time. This can cost him millions in FA money.
So the most likely scenario is that unless Flynn bombs, Rubio will never play for Minn
I think the reason he does not want to come is because Flynn was drafted, if he is handed the PG job, he would be more likely to sign with Minn, unless he has no intention of coming in the first place
by a hay on Sep 1, 2009 10:56 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But..
….Flynn developing to such a point is not a problem, especially if Rubio develops in Europe. Once again, this is all about how well Kahn is playing the hand that was dealt to him on draft night and whether or not Flynn and Rubio can be used on or off the court in a way that makes the team better in the long run. If it is true that Rubio simply does not want to play for the Wolves, then Kahn is doing a good job obscuring that idea in a way that lets Rubio play for a better contract and in a way that, hopefully, maximizes his trade value over the next 2 years while Flynn, hopefully, becomes good. In terms of basketball development, this is hardly a loss for anyone involved.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Sep 1, 2009 11:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You
…miss what I believe is the meat of SnP’s argument: The decision to stay would seem to be almost completely financially motivated. None of the “millions in FA money” is guaranteed. When it’s explained this way, it sounds nearly impossible to procure a lender to cover the buyout – I think we all assumed it would be simple.
The bottom line, as SnP so ably points out, is Kahn has done an admirable job so far. Thanks for the perspective.
by Boss10 on Sep 1, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You
miss my point … if Rubio has to split time with Flynn …. then he is less likely to get FA money …. that is why drafting Flynn hurt Minnesota’s chance of ever signing Rubio …. and unless Flynn bombs completely, even if Rubio developes, he is not coming to Minnesota, because it is a RISKY Move and get life complicated…. that indicate his problem is either Minnesota cannot give him the endorsement he need for the finance part and having Flynn around will make him difficult to make FA money.
I think the problem was drafting Rubio and Flynn, 2 passing PG, who are both probably too small and does not shoot well enough for SG
by a hay on Sep 2, 2009 8:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I believe the
Risky move and get life complicated comment is a misquote. I believe what Ricky was trying to indicate was that of the following two options with him being 18:
1. Moving to a foreign country while having to pay a large portion of his first two (only guaranteed) contract years salary to his old team,
vs.
2. Staying at home for 2 more years, making about the same net, with an affordable buyout that the wolves can pick up almost half straightup (and he can pay the rest on without a loan), while having four additional years guaranteed with Barcelona at a nice salary.
I guess what I am trying to say is that from his perspective, going to the wolves was like borrowing a lot of money to gamble with. Even if the odds are really good that the 1st route would make him more money in the long run…he just didn’t feel comfortable doing this.
While the addition of Flynn may have had a slight impact on his feeling comfortable, the other issues were still pretty big and were likely the predominant factors.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 3, 2009 8:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
....and complicated.
http://www.marca.com/2009/09/01/baloncesto/acb/1251832677.html
Ricky Rubio: “Going to Minnesota this season was a risky move. I didn’t see it. I would get my life all complicated.”
Translation from Hoopshype: http://hoopshype.com/rumors.htm
by wayno on Sep 2, 2009 2:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rubio would've come over this year had I not put him on my NBA 2k9 team prematurely.
My bad.
I hate Pod Six. I don't even know why we have a Pod Six. Total suck pod.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Sep 1, 2009 10:57 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
NBA 2K9
I did too!
Time to go make an adjustment…
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
by HumdingerTV on Sep 2, 2009 10:04 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thank god. Now it's all your fault.
I hate Pod Six. I don't even know why we have a Pod Six. Total suck pod.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Sep 2, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What else could Kahn have done?
Excellent article. I basically agree. I also find Bill Simmons revisionism revealing. Remember that many people around these parts seemed to actually want Simmons as our GM. Clever snark is not a business plan. Our club may have been snake bit yet again, but it seems due diligence was served and there are so many elements here that are beyond our control. Its happened here before. And also, the agendas of other franchises, other teams’ fans, the national and regional sports media machines is in full display. I don’t even see Rubio as a ‘diva’ in the American professional athlete sense. I think he is caving to intense pressure from his family and friends back home. I feel Kahn has intimated as much. And he is as entitled as anyone to follow a path that makes him happy, not just satisfy our whims. Hopefully, we will still get an opportunity to root for him as a Wolf in the future. If not, there are many more developments in the pipeline anyway.
by ogishkemuncie on Sep 1, 2009 11:03 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rubio.....
I’m glad this story can finally go to bed.
Rubio has done nothing but string the Minn franchise along.
He knew he wasn’t going to sign with the Wolves.
Johnny Flynn is a great pg and he is a born leader.
Those don’t come around much nowadays.
What’s the over under that Kahn trades Rubio?
No I won’t say he’ll come to NY…even though it’s pretty much laid out.
Kahn and Walsh are close.
Knicks Overseas Scout is the Rubio family’s best friend and I’m not even joking.
It’s just to easy….especially considering the fact that Rubio, Rubio’s pops and Fegan all want him to play in NY.
Sorry guys…I’m only pointing out the facts.
by DaJoka on Sep 1, 2009 11:12 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
It's all laid out, huh?
Let’s see here. The Knicks have nothing whatsoever of value except that Kahn and Walsh used to work together for the Pacers a long time ago and remain close. That closeness coupled with the Knick’s scout being tight with the family and sprinkled with Dan Fegan’s desires for largess and this is a done deal. Delusional cooking, that is. Sorry, but I am only pointing out the obvious.
As for Flynn, weren’t you the fella that spouted off that he would have a hard time guarding anybody? (Topped off with something like good luck with that!) Now, the defensive lacking Flynn is a natural leader. Quick turnaround.
Kahn did what he had to do and now we can all move forward. Somehow I believe that will be easier for Wolves fans than Knicks fans since the Wolves still have an asset like Rubio and the Knicks do not, but really, really wish they did.
We can wait. Nice post, SnP. Per usual.
by Grover M on Sep 1, 2009 11:22 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’m sorry, when i read your comments all that goes through my head is “troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll troll…”
by pagingstanleyroberts on Sep 1, 2009 11:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This Just In
Despite all of the advantages of being located in the biggest market in the country, the Knicks suck and have sucked for most of my life. And I’m 2/3 the way to Social Security, dude.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
by SBG on Sep 2, 2009 7:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Give it up
Kahn stated on the radio yesterday that Donnie Walsh hasn’t made one single offer for Rubio.
Not one.
Why?
Probably because Donnie Walsh is a smart enough man to know that his squad has NOTHING of comparable value to offer for Rubio.
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
by HumdingerTV on Sep 2, 2009 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
who is Rubio
You guys make me think the Rubio is the second coming of some of the great draft picks of all time
People like Danny Ferry, Olowokandi, Milicic etc
Rubio has played 0 games, and is only 19, can we add some prospective that he may or may not develope into a good/ok player
If he ever average a 20ppg season, like Eddy Curry (i am using him because he is crap), Minnesota would be really happy… to say the mets starters are not comparable to Rubio is ludicrous
by a hay on Sep 3, 2009 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I've been a bit surprised and not surprised throughout...
By how much scrutiny has come Kahn’s way for a GM of a 24-win team. I understand why Rubio garners attention, but to me it’s surprising that’s he’s ripped so frequently while Sam Presti is treated like he craps gold. I like Presti’s drafting of Westbrook, signing of Krstic, trade for Sefolosha, and drafting of Harden, but he lucked into Durant, traded Ray-Ray and the pick that became Big Baby to Boston for a big contract and the #5 pick, a worse deal than Miller/Foye for Rubio and filler, especially considering Jeff Green’s ceiling at this point seems like fringe All-Star/4th-best guy on a contender. My point is not to say they are on par with each other but to say that they’re not on opposite ends of the spectrum by any means.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Sep 1, 2009 11:22 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The difference
Presti makes bold moves quietly. Some have worked, others have not.
Kahn has made bold moves – most of the jury is still out. But Kahn has been anything but quiet in announcing to the world his thoughts on players (Big Al a #2, Rubio and Flynn together, etc.), announcing things to bloggers, etc. He keeps feeding the very machine that will rip him up in the end.
The ironic part is that Kahn is not communicating very well with his FO staff, yet seems to enjoy the attention from the media. Go figure.
Anyhow, I hope Kahn learns from this that he should play his cards much closer to the vest and keeps quiet.
by Just A Fan on Sep 2, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
What do you mean
He is not communicating very well with his FO staff? Where do you get that from?
by TimAllen on Sep 2, 2009 9:28 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I hesitate to conclude...
That his media presence is based solely on ego. He understands that this team needs more interest around it and talks partially in hope of increasing the fan base and the ticket base while speaking to the “Wolves intelligentsia” (the people who understand basketball at a high level for a fan and can smell bullshit a mile away). They operate under different assumptions. Kahn is more “The fans need to know as much as I can safely tell them” while Presti feels he can protect his players more. Which he probably can — he’s the GM of a franchise that’s still in its relocation honeymoon in a city that’s never had a full-time NBA team. Wolves fans aren’t as easily placated. So maybe that partially answers my question — Kahn sees himself partially as a businessman while Presti doesn’t.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Sep 2, 2009 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kahn seems to be feeding the local media – the beat writers, bloggers and personalities like Barreiro, and these aren’t the guys who are ripping him. It’s the national media guys who have even less of a clue about the state of the team than the local guys who are ripping him.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Sep 2, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There's nothing else Kahn could have done
and as someone who thinks this is not a good situation at all, I applaud him. He took the best player, he worked hard to get him here, it didn’t work out. No complaints about Kahn, and he still shouldn’t trade Rubio.
That said, I think this has moved out of the realm of pure “math problem;” and I think looking at it like that is ignoring significant evidence. Yes, it can be explained that way, but it isn’t Occam’s razor.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 1, 2009 11:33 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
This whole Simmons thing...
Flummoxes me. It’s a mixture of sour grapes and thoughts that reflect a superficial understanding of the situation. I know the Twitter battle is being raged in response to Kahn supporters, but he has an annoying habit of not recognizing valid opposing points.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Sep 1, 2009 11:39 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I think that for the last year, I’ve liked Bill Simmons a little bit less with every article of his I’ve read. He’s just lazy. He relies on dumb, rehashed jokes. He needs to move on.
by LoveTo on Sep 2, 2009 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I’ve been a big, big fan of his from his very first article on ESPN. But on this topic he has disappointed me.
While I like his humor, the best thing about Simmons has always been that he takes the time to analyze sports in more depth than the vast majority of writers.
I’m afraid this really is about the sour grapes. He also seemed to hear lots of negative things about Kahn from his NBA sources and that soured him further.
by Django Z on Sep 2, 2009 1:25 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Totally agree...sour grapes
No free pass for Simmons dementia and laziness lately. This is classic…
http://www.danhinrichs.net/vegas/ESPN_com%20-%20Thrown%20to%20the%20mat%20in%20Vegas.htm
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 1:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I emailed Simmons a biting critique of his recent work on Rubio.
And I hope that others will join in.
by TheH on Sep 2, 2009 9:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not like he cares...
There’s a reason his articles don’t allow comments.
by TimAllen on Sep 2, 2009 9:29 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
There were comments for one day when ESPN first added the feature.
Boy, was that a glorious day.
I hate Pod Six. I don't even know why we have a Pod Six. Total suck pod.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Sep 2, 2009 10:23 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Kahn has done as well as could be expected
But I imagine in two years we will be talking about trade value, not his imminent arrival, particularly if Flynn proves a legit NBA PG.
I think we will see those player options leveraged against us in future; the question will then become one of patience on the part of the Wolves.
And just for a tangent: what becomes of Chucky, who I’ve always presumed to be a secondary insurance policy. Stay, go or a half way house where his current deal is bought and he joins on for the vets minimum (? 1.5m saving).
Panic stations turned into happy land after we beat an inferior opposition like God wants us to.
You gotta love it when 10 minutes into the match you turn to the Hawk supporter next to you and say: "What the hell were we worried about all week?"
GOLDEN GOD BIRDS --- >>>> PREMIERSHIP HEROES ---- >>>>> BROWN AND GOLD ARMY OF TOUGH WARRIOR MEN ----- >>>>> 4 LIFE
by Auswolf on Sep 1, 2009 11:43 PM CDT via mobile reply actions 0 recs
In the conference call...
Kahn said they’re looking to get another backup and that Brown isn’t even certain to be on the roster when the season starts. There are still decent free agents on the market.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Sep 2, 2009 10:55 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
That wouldn't be a bad problem to have.
If Flynn is a legit PG, having him and the rights to a highly valued prospect would be a good situation to be in. I’m sick of a team’s best assets being expiring contracts.
by aarendsvark on Sep 2, 2009 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Repost!!!
I’m not trying to say Rubio will be a Knick. The only reason I even said that is because EVERYBODY KNOWS (including the bloggers here) Rubio and his ENTIRE TEAM (yes that includes Rubio) wanted to play and live in NY. Guess what….the Knicks didn’t get him. Oh well….to bad!!! That’s not our headache and we’re glad because the NY Media would’ve chewed Walsh a new one if he went through this and made the same (sorry) idiotic move that Kahn made. It’s always good to look at it in a positive light but Jose is 100% right. No matter how you spin this….this was a bad move by Kahn. Rubio showed absolutely NO INTEREST in going to Minny. Like I said before…..every other prospect in the lottery worked out for all the teams except Rubio. Kahn and his team had NO CONTACT with Rubio and his team. Why….again I ask…..WHY would you draft this kid? You’ve essentially wasted a draft pick, you lost 2 STARTERS and you added 18 million in payroll. You can’t be serious right now. Kahn goes to Spain not once….not twice….but three times (maybe 4) to try to negotiate a buyout for this kid. Once Kahn is able to work out the buyout by doing God knows what……what does Rubio do? LOL…OMG……this is the funniest part…..he says to Kahn…."hey thanks for all your hard work and showing me what you would do to bring me to Minny but I think I’m going to pass on your offer (after the agreed buyout) and stay in Spain to play ball…but I still want to come to the NBA." How can you guys let that pass? Rubio said he wants to play ball in the NBA and it’s his "dream". Kahn worked out the deal to allow Rubio to live his "dream" and Rubio says…."no thanks"
What does that tell you?
It means….Rubio doesn’t want to play on the Timberwolves.
That was my whole point from the very beginning.
Rubio can wait as long as he wants to before he comes over.
You won’t have his rights forever because Kahn will eventually be fired in my opinion.
All I’m doing is reading between the lines.
I’m didn’t come on here and try to disrespect anybody. All I was doing was looking for basketball conversation.
This is actually light though….you should check out what we say on the Knicks blog. You guys are like angels compared to us lol.
Anybody want to chat I’m here all night.
by DaJoka on Sep 2, 2009 12:06 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Repost - parte dos
Knicks fans are irrational to deal with
See my other posts in Rubio ordeal
Knicks fans I talked to actually 100% certain they have Rubio, Lebron, and DWade/other top 5 FA in 2010
Aspirational…Delusional…Pipe dream
Now you avoid and divert conversation to something else like Lee/Love comparison…
Like nailing jello to the wall..
Agree with Eric in Madison about how to close transactions…Knicks fans have no ideas how that works
NY divas wish and assume the magic dust of big market makes it happen…
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 12:48 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Seriously - is there a way to block a poster so I don't have to even see his screen name?
by Django Z on Sep 2, 2009 1:26 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Yes, if he gets banned ;)
There's Gotta Be More To Life
by Norsktroll on Sep 2, 2009 6:18 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I'm your Huckleberry...
…where you at?
—Doc Holiday
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 2:06 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
You don't draft players on signability
Especially in the NBA where player rights are more permanently sealed to a team. Rubio will never play in the NBA unless Minnesota gets 4 years in uniform out of him or a substantial trade. There is no 3rd option that doesn’t involve him sitting out of basketball altogether.
Khan has made nothing but right moves as far as I’m concerned.
by Cobra312004 on Sep 2, 2009 2:33 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
At the end of the day
Kahn can just never trade Rubio if Rubio starts acting like a prima donna. If Rubio is as competitive as they say he is, then at some point he will want to play in the NBA. To get here, he has to go through us. If he is smart (assuming he doesn’t want to play here), he will be quite and let the wolves make a deal that is in THEIR best interests to a team that is acceptable to Rubio. Rubio has no power to dictate the team he goes to (this is not europe). At worst, the wolves call his bluff and he has to sit in europe for a couple more years until he really gets the itch to play.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 2, 2009 7:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Sorry
He didn’t add 18 mill in payroll….I apologize guys.
by DaJoka on Sep 2, 2009 12:08 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
At least now I can say for sure...
Jonny Flynn is my favorite Wolves point guard.
by LoveTo on Sep 2, 2009 12:17 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Boxy Bobby Brown, Duke of New York is disappointed, yet understands your decision.
I hate Pod Six. I don't even know why we have a Pod Six. Total suck pod.
by Kevin Loves McHale's Navy on Sep 2, 2009 12:21 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Let's move on
I bought into Rubio here this year and would have loved to see it.
But I’ve had enough of the 1000 posts on Rubio today. All opinions are in the books and after 24 hours, it becomes yesterdays news.
Plan A to me with Rubio hear was very clear. High execution risk, but very few transactions to execute (sign Rubio, watch team develop, rid of expiring contracts, sign FA in 2010, maximize draft picks)
Now the real question is what is plan B for this year and next as you alluded to?
What do they do to maximize value with non-core players — Brown, Atkins, Wilkens, Cardinal, Blount, Songalia (next year when expiring)?
What vet PG do they sign, if any?
Do they sign Carney or somebody else at 2/3 now?
Does Siler have a chance to make the squad and contribute for a few minutes as a young, low-cost big option?
How do they improve by running with this ‘09 team?
Who’s reasonble FA target in 2010?
Rubio and future draft picks factor into those decisions overall but tactiacally there’s a lot that needs to be decided and to do between now and then…
The long-term strategy hasn’t changed, but the number of moves Kahn has to make has increased immensely
So many questions/options now — those are the things we should be debating…
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 12:34 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
I don't really think Rubio not being here changes the course all that much..
It’s not like we had a set plan in stone that was entirely contingent on him being here. Kahn was prepared for this possibility (probability?)
Sure, now we have an extra roster spot. Use it to re-sign Carney. Then buy out Atkins and sign a free agent point guard who can play some. Other than that, which I think Kahn was extremely prepared to do, I don’t see how the absence of The Spanish Kid has much of an impact on our moves this offseason or next, or increases the total number he has to make.
by LoveTo on Sep 2, 2009 12:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
All the New York talk got me wondering
What about extending an offer to Nate Robinson? He had an amazing year as a sparkplug off the bench. I know he’s, um, not tall, but he did get 17/4/4 on not terrible shooting numbers. He’s a blast to watch, and as unguardable on O as he is incapable of covering anybody on D… except Yao.
by aarendsvark on Sep 2, 2009 11:15 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Didn’t you know we’re trading Rubio for him?
by LoveTo on Sep 2, 2009 4:42 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
But I am fully on board with moving on and talking about something else,
which I think was the main point of your comment anyways. Sorry.
by LoveTo on Sep 2, 2009 12:57 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
no worries
you got it
small fish, but …
-two more signings near term with open pg n sg and, imo, siler spot to bang minutes instead of Blount
-no real talk of best way to cut/trade expiring vets
-dare i say and dont even want to discuss now, how/when to approach rubio the asset rather than Rubio the player (no knicks trades welcome)
-btw, didn’t they actually just get several $mn in cap room by not having Rubio next two years? Enough about Rubio on my end…sorry for the diversion
-Who’s a real 2/3 option in FA
-Who’s target in 2010 draft?
IMO, all those questions are more complicated, even though smaller, and need to be made before certainty on Rubio…McHale would’ve have panicked and I assume this site and Kahn have cooler heads
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 1:13 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I have one small request to Kahn and Rambis for 2009-10:
Please don’t make me watch Bobby Brown play PG. Please.
by Punisher#8 on Sep 2, 2009 7:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Well....
It hasn’t been 24 hours yet so essentially it’s still todays news.
Let the Rubio debate contiue….
by DaJoka on Sep 2, 2009 12:53 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Final, final
How do Knicks create cap room and gather draft picks to rebuild?
500 words required
Should address current roster/salaries/draft picks/FA options/ trade options
Buen suerte, tambien…LOL…
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 1:30 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
He wants in the NBA
Just that the little punk doesnt want in Minnesota. Supposedly, he wants the Knicks. Like that is a major step up. Anyways, I say, dangle his worthless ass and his rights in front of the Knicks. 1st round, 2nd round and a few players if they want the whiner that badly, or he wants them, If the Knicks are stupid enough to go for it….GREAT! Then watch him look on in despair as the Knicks finish in the cellar year after year and we get better and better thanks to him.
"If you're gonna shoot, shoot, don't talk"
by VikesFaninNM on Sep 2, 2009 12:54 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Terrific Article!!
Few Points
1. Simmons is a entertainer (Pure and Simple)
2. Kahn did the right thing
3. I have warmer feelings toward Marbury than Ricky
by Jose Cordoba on Sep 2, 2009 1:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I'm interested in #3
Not that I agree or disagree, but why?
by pagingstanleyroberts on Sep 2, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Marbury
was at least direct in his dealings with the team. I also got a kick out of him showing up to some random Wolves game to watch Bassy play. Ricky jerked everyone around for the last couple months. Also in hindsight- the Wolves got pretty decent value at the time for Marbury. A top 6 pick in a solid draft along with a quality starting (Albeit always injured PG). Where as this totally throws Ricky’s value up in the air. I’m highly skeptical that Ricky ever puts on a T-Wolves uniform. I tend to think deep down Kahn thinks the same thing.
by Jose Cordoba on Sep 2, 2009 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks SnP
You’re consistently reasonable analysis is one of the reasons I come here.
by Django Z on Sep 2, 2009 1:27 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Rubio played the Wolves and you
Excuse me while I interrupt this analysis with reality: Ricky Rubio played the Wolves and you like an old Spanish guitar.
The Draft -
The idea that Kahn would have been blamed for not selecting Rubio at number 5 is baseless. To wit, would Kahn have really selected Rubio had he know at the time that Rubio would essentially renege on the draft and the Wolves? I’m not so sure.
What did Kahn know at the time of the draft. Ricky had pointed out that he was so eager to play in the NBA that he would play for free. He entered the NBA Draft stating that he was ready based upon his experience playing in the Olympics against teams like Team USA.
So, what does Ricky say now? Based on his introduction with his new team, Ricky says that he considered Regal Barcelona, one of the best teams in Europe, a better and less risky environment to develop as a player and win titles than with the Timberwolves. He further states that he is not ready for the “rigor” of the NBA.
As for the “rigor,” Ricky has been playing with the Euroleague Spanish selection team that includes several NBA players and opposing teams that includes NBA players as well.
More, why would Kahn bother to make 3 trips to Spain in an attempt to bring Ricky back with him—even to the point of offering a better offer to Ricky’s former team than the new Spanish club—if he didn’t want (expect0 Ricky to come to the Wolves this season?
The Wolves -
So, Ricky is essentially telling the current roster of Timberwolves that the team stinks that it is too risky and won’t compete. I am sure that is going to be endearing to the players who are now preparing themselves for the new season.
Oh, and We Can All Wait For Ricky -
Using this logic, why not tell Jonny to stay in Syracuse? Tell Al Jefferson, Kevin Love, and others to simply go through the motions for the next few years. After all, we ain’t going no where anyhow.
by Flagrant-II on Sep 2, 2009 2:33 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
But he didn't play you, amiright?
Clear the way, smart guy coming through.
by museum on Sep 2, 2009 2:39 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It's not often you see it
I hate to say it but it’s true. Realistically, the Wolves aren’t going to go from a 24 win team to a playoff contender in one season. Khan has said that he expects the Wolves to be playoff contenders in his 3rd season and that was when he thought Rubio would be here this season.
The rigor Rubio is referring to has to do with the fact that the NBA is more physical and requires more minutes from it’s starters than he is used to in Europe. They also play more games. Rubio averaged 23 mpg in 22 games last season.
And even if he played the Wolves from the start, what good did it do him? The Wolves still hold his rights for as long as he plays.
by Cobra312004 on Sep 2, 2009 2:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I didn't realize they played so few games
Does Barcelona play more games? So we are hoping he “develops” in the next 2 years by only playing 1/2 the length of an NBA season? At least he’ll have a lot of time practicing if not game time.
Makes the money things stand out though, doesn’t it. He’s getting paid something like 1.4 M to play 1/4 the number of minutes/games. More money, less work. Sounds like an easy decision for an 18 year old. Umm, well an easy decision for me too, where do I sign up?
by Cedarpenguin on Sep 2, 2009 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Not to mention he gets to stay near home in one of the coolest cities in the world while now making over a million per year tax free.
Jennings: F*** the Knicks, them n***** is always going to be weak.
by Xand1 on Sep 2, 2009 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Fine rant...
…Understandably so
and your point is…?
by PoohRichardson on Sep 2, 2009 2:42 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I agree...sort of...
Rubio not only played the Wolves, he played the NBA Draft.
Let’s think about this…Rubio chose to work out for ONE team, while claiming that his “dream” was to come to the NBA. Then his camp tries to make the argument that he needed to be a top 4 pick, despite conducting no workouts for 3 of those four teams.
My guess is that Rubio entered the draft with two motivations…1) get selected and use this as leverage to get out of his DKV contract and into a better paying gig 2) get selected by a high profile NBA team or a preferred destination. Only the first one happened, so team Rubio decided to use the Wolves as negotiating leverage to bring a deep pocketed Euro team to the table with a better offer.
by DougW on Sep 2, 2009 4:10 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Good points
and is much as it sucks for Wolves fans, it’s exactly what one would do if confronted with the same situation. Had Barcelona (or some other squad) not been interested/able, he’d probably be here now. Even in the final analysis, I don’t think this was a 100% decision on his part—more like a leaner toward Barcelona.
Rooting for a Rubio Revolucion since roughly 10:20 a.m. on June 24th, 2009
by PoorDick on Sep 2, 2009 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I really fell for the logic that Rubio wanted to play in the NBA…“why else would he enter the draft if he didn’t?”
I think perhaps Rubio would have come to the NBA this season, if he had been selected by or traded to the “right” 1-3 teams, but I really think this was mostly a well orchestrated effort to get him out of DKV and into the drivers seat for his NBA destination.
If in two seasons, the Wolves have put together a promising team and hand him the starting pg job, he may come here. More likely, he’ll say he’s ready to come and here are the three approved teams that you can trade me to.
I hope Ricky develops into a great player…so we can trade his ass to the Knicks for two lottery picks. Until then, can’t wait to watch Johnny Flynn turn into a better pro and lead this team back into the playoffs!
by DougW on Sep 2, 2009 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
How is the idea
that Kahn would have been blamed for not selecting Rubio at number 5 baseless? I really don’t understand this comment. He would have been torn apart, not only by the national media, but by the fans of his team.
As I said in the last post, I think Kahn knew more or less that it would be really tricky to get Rubio over this season. He said as much less than 30 minutes after he made the pick to everyone in Target Center. He probably didn’t know the exact details but I’m sure he anticipated a major headache.
I think you’re playing a nice game of revisionist history.
by TimAllen on Sep 2, 2009 9:44 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
When does the euro league season end? is it earlier then the NBA and if so could he come to the wolves midseason then, not this year, but next year?
by remiel6 on Sep 2, 2009 9:09 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No, it's longer. He was still in the Spanish playoffs when the pre-draft camp in Chicago was held.
There's Gotta Be More To Life
by Norsktroll on Sep 2, 2009 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
I totally agree that Kahn did the right things. Doesn’t mean it still s*cks Rubio won’t be coming over this year…
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Sep 2, 2009 9:35 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
The part I still don't get
Is how Barcelona is going to make money on this deal. They will end up paying 7.9 million (not sure if this is USD or Euros – either way it’s a lot of money) for two years of service (5 million buyout + 2 years of salary at 1.45 million). Anyone have an idea how it makes sense for them?
by Boss10 on Sep 2, 2009 10:38 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Prestige, Barcelona has a powerful president who wants to make the team #1 in soccer and basketball and at best in every other sport the club has departments for. And with Rubio and Navarro they now have arguably the best backcourt in Europe.
There's Gotta Be More To Life
by Norsktroll on Sep 2, 2009 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
They also get...
…$1M Euros/$1.4M USD back if/when Rubio buys out after 2 years. So more like $4.3M Euros for 2 years. Not too bad.
(678): Words of Wisdom: ordering a pitcher of whiskey cokes, putting a straw in it, and calling it your drink is not socially acceptable
by CaliWolf on Sep 2, 2009 2:51 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Rubio will most likely
come over in 2012. That way, if the wolves have additional cap space past his rookie scale deal, he can get a larger contract. Plus his salary for 2011 is much better at Barcelona. Since he didn’t come this year, he won’t be here until 2012. (Post lockout, if you know what I mean). There are limits to how much he can get in that situation, but it also means the contract has to be for 3-5 years.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 2, 2009 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Thanks for the thorough writeup, SnP. I hope this issue has been beaten into the ground. As a fan, I have to say that I appreciate Kahn telling the public exactly what happened.
by Dave T on Sep 2, 2009 10:51 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Agree that Kahn had no choice
Good post, especially getting the Simmons’ quotes. He was on KFAN this morning arguing the point with PA. He did not say anything to move me to his side, but he was not going to budge on ripping Kahn for the deal.
I doubt Kahn dreamed this scenario was going to play out when he traded Foye/Miller for the 5th pick. He wanted Flynn and probably planned on taking whoever fell between Thabeet, Harden, and Evans. No way Kahn could have passed up Rubio, he would have been destroyed by local media and fans.
Nothing wrong with waiting two years and seeing how things develop between Flynn and Rubio, while saving money.
The part I would change is not trading Bassy since it seems he would now be a perfect fit for the next two seasons.
I hope they let Atkins go and bring in Bobby Jackson. I’ve enjoyed watching him since he was a Gopher, let’s bring him back.
by Rumblebee on Sep 2, 2009 1:40 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Great piece, but here's a counter-argument
If Kahn were the Knicks GM and worked the deal he worked, Rubio would be packing for New York right now. I’m maybe 90% confident of that.
Drafting Flynn was, in part, an insurance policy against a No-Rubio scenario. The Wolves are collecting on that insurance policy right now. It was the safe path.
But what if the Wolves had gone all-in for Rubio. Instead of Flynn what if they had selected someone else who was not a PG? That would have sent a different message to Rubio and his people.
All things equal would Rubio have gone through with the deal knowing he was the man at the point for the Wolves?Would he have fallen in the boat instead of jumping back in the Spanish water? I’ll put that one at 65% confident.
Having said that, if I’m in Kahn’s shoes on draft night I make the same call he did. But could that have been the thing that kept Rubio in Espana?
by A.K. Agikamik on Sep 2, 2009 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
I don't think so
I think that Flynn was his goal to begin with. He felt he couldn’t pass up Rubio and since the other players he wanted weren’t there (or players I wanted), he picked up the asset knowing full well the likelyhood of getting him over here. The NY option only helps with the potential dollars in additional ad deals. If enough of them would front the money, and Rubio didn’t have to pay out of his own pocket, then he would be there. But other than that, location had nothing to do with it. Going all in for Rubio would have been stupid. Once the Barca deal came along, Rubio would have all of the leverage against the wolves because the would need him to fill a roster hole. Now, once he comes in 2012 (to get a bigger contract…or after the lockout) the wolves will have a solid negotiating position.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 2, 2009 5:01 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
It definitely would have been...
…a test of the math-problem theory.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Sep 3, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
The most important question for all of this really comes down to whether or not the buyout is “NBA only.” Is it possible another Euro team could “outbid” on the buyout and offer an absurd contract? I heard rumblings yesterday the buyout was NBA only but have yet to hear anything legit behind that.
by WallyW0rld on Sep 2, 2009 3:05 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
No, the buyout was for any team
Joventut nuture an asset; it has appreciated and now they get to realise it’s value by selling it to another team.
Same thing happens in soccer.
Panic stations turned into happy land after we beat an inferior opposition like God wants us to.
You gotta love it when 10 minutes into the match you turn to the Hawk supporter next to you and say: "What the hell were we worried about all week?"
GOLDEN GOD BIRDS --- >>>> PREMIERSHIP HEROES ---- >>>>> BROWN AND GOLD ARMY OF TOUGH WARRIOR MEN ----- >>>>> 4 LIFE
by Auswolf on Sep 2, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
"wasted a draft pick"
I do not understand this notion.
First, the Wolvies will retain his rights. So the only way Khan wasted the pick is if they can’t get fifth-overall value. Since there is absolutely no way Rubio would have dropped to 5 if there was no buyout issue and if he was coming for sure, in two years when he does come, his value will automatically be higher than where he was picked. Not to mention he won’t be so extremely young, he will most likely fill out a little to make him better prepared for the size and physical play of the NBA, and he will most likely be a better player than now.
The Wolves won’t be good before this happens anyway, and they wouldn’t have been any better off with whoever else they could have got at that spot.
If Rubio never shows up in Minnesota, Khan will still easily get the value of a five pick. All the Wolves lost was money in the form of not having Rubio to market to a fan base that is almost non-existant.
by Wu on Sep 2, 2009 3:52 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
If it was known during the draft
That he wouldn’t be coming for at least two years, how far do you think he would have fallen? I’m not sure the #5 is the best place for him. In fact, I would think he would fall out of the top 10. Somewhere between #12-25??
by Boss10 on Sep 2, 2009 10:30 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
This is actually a really, really interesting question.
I would say he’d stay in the top 10, though.
by LoveTo on Sep 3, 2009 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
Great post
Rubio made the best decision for him and Kahn was smart to draft him.
In a few years this is going to look pretty darn good. Patience is in order. The kid is only 18. You traded away Miller and Foye for the opportunity in a couple of years to get what could be the next great PG.
Even if Flynn is fantastic and you move Rubio, his value will be greater in 2011 then it is now (assuming he continues to develop…potential is funny that way)
Props to Kahn for playing the long game and props to Rubio for postponing his dream and making the smart decision
Blogging Suns Basketball
by Seth Pollack on Sep 2, 2009 5:02 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs
Danke
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
by Stop-n-Pop on Sep 3, 2009 12:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs
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