I heart Kahn: the flowchart
by Wim (Belgium) on Sep 11, 2009 7:41 AM CDT
35 comments
I've made no secret about it: I'm drinking the Kahn-Aid. With some spare time on my hands (not really but I did it anyway) I made a little flow chart for you guys to have an overview of the trades Kahn has made.
You can also watch the chart here.
Some things that struck me:
Kahn managed to save a total of 4mil in combined 09 and 10 salary. This might not seem very spectacular but I think it's pretty amazing if you look a little closer. We had to add 5mil to make the Wizards draft pick trade work! If we look at only that party of the equation you can see that Kahn managed to turn Miller, Foye and Brown into 1.6mil LESS salary .. and still get Rubio.
I'll let you decide on the talent part of that equation: Miller Foye and Brown for Rubiorights, Wilkins, Pecherov and Daniels (Atkins doesn't stay) ... I'd say that's pretty nice.
Check out the flexiblity:Telfair, Madsen and Smith had only 5.140mil in exp this year. Mostly because Telfair had a 2yr deal. Kahn managed to turn that 2yr deal and 2 smallish expirings into once nice neat 7.9mil package.
For the upper part, the Draft-trade damages the flexibility. We have 2 exp and have to trade it for 2 exp and a large 2yr deal. But Kahn strikes again, turning the 2exp, the large and the smallish Bobby Brown contract into 3 expirings.
All this has effectively helped in making room for new talent: Hollins at 2.2mil, Rubio rights, Sessions at 4mil and the signing of Flynn and Ellington. It clearly shows Kahn is thinking long term, doing what he said he would
- getting as much out of the draft as he could
- afterwards packaging together as much exp. money in as little number of contracts
- making as much as possible roster and cap space to add some free agents/draft picks
What say you?
edit: corrected typo in title (hart = dutch for heart ;))
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Don't forget
that Pecherov’s next season is a Team Option. Which I doubt will be picked up. To me, that counts as expiring.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 11, 2009 7:53 AM CDT reply actions
Hell
All of the players we have gotten back in our trades are expirings. We have a total of 29,411,135 in expirings counting Brewer and Pecherov if the wolves don’t pick up the team options. I assume love will be picked up.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 11, 2009 7:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly, I counted Pecherov’s as expiring. The 3 expirings for the uppert part are Pecherov, Wilkins and Daniels (with Blount in the bottom part). I didn’t count Atkins since I thought that if we waive him .. we have to pay the 0.7mil guaranteed part but that also means he’s no longer an expiring contract.
Either we keep him, and that gives us an extra 3mil expiring deal > Extra flexiblity OR we waive him: extra salary.
Since we already got plenty of expiring deals and with the current climate I expect them to cut him but either way we’re good.
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Sep 11, 2009 9:07 AM CDT up reply actions
Hands down
they trade him for someone with a lower guaranteed expiring deal and draft pick or something. Kahn will use that contract to grab future assets while still paying less than overall. Great way to pick up second round picks in let’s say 2012 or 2013 to stock euro prospects that don’t have cap holds.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 11, 2009 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Good work Wim
Really nice looking chart. Edward Tufte rejoice!
I like Kahn’s work so far as well. But…there’s a way to describe this which is: they traded 4 rotation guys (Miller, Foye, Smith, Telfair) for the rights to a player we won’t see for at least 2 years, and a bunch of guys who can’t really play (Atkins, Pecherov, Wilkins, Blount, and Daniels), and only saved $2.7 million for 2010.
Actually, the best moves are getting out Songaila for 2010 and the FA signings. Getting (hopefully) 2 young guys with upside at positions where they can get minutes for reasonable deals is how you build the base of your team. Hollins is obviously the bigger question mark, but he and Sessions are good adds. Also, setting up flexibility for the 2010 draft by getting the Charlotte pick was a nice maneuver. I’m not as excited about Flynn as many are, but I’ve been wrong before.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 11, 2009 7:59 AM CDT reply actions
On the surface it’s 4 rotation players for Rubio and guys who won’t be here next year, but there’s more to it than that.
It’s Foye, Miller, and bench guys for Rubio’s rights plus the cap flexability for whomever we sign/trade for in the next year. Foye and Miller would have required a decision as far as free agency next year. Either we renounce them and use the space or resign them and lose most of it. Foye/Miller may have had a little more use at the deadline as “useful” expirings, but that’s even questionable as teams looking to dump substar players are usually looking to cut costs and in that case “expiring” expirings usually do the trick given the youth/picks we have to add to said deals. I’m not even going to go into Telfair and Smith as I don’t deem them rotational players on a good team. They’re just not that good. Trading away Telfair was great and if it took Smith to do that, so be it.
All the contract shuffling done since the Foye/Miller deal means little to most, but I think it’s been brilliant. We’ve maintained cap space for 2010 despite using the whole MLE. We were set up for cap space in 2010 pre Kahn. Most would have sat on that, but not Kahn. His maneuvering allowed us to sign Sessions and Hollins without huring 2010.
Again, we’ve seen no proof that Kahn’s talent evaluation is better than anyone elses, but the rest has been spot on. Anyone think the old regime could have pulled it off. I’m quite pleased.
by Blond Ricky on Sep 13, 2009 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions
Very nicely done
Is there any way you could color the boxes a light red or green depending on if they saved us or lost us money?
Also, you should put draft picks and FA signings on there because they are part of Kahn’s legacy here and they might end up being traded (Sessions or Flynn once Rubio comes over?).
Hoping we re-sign Brewer
Because that would mean he played well enough to pick up the contract.
Pretty sure they have to do that soon
The date on picking up the option is before the season starts, yes?
Pretty sure we already picked up his option
I think DJL was talking about next year.
October 31st is the date, and they haven't to my knowledge
Last October the Wolves exercised their options on Foye and Brewer for 09-10. Corey’s 2010-11 option has to be picked up by October 31st this year. Or not.
They can still ink him to a deal after this year if they don’t exercise the option. They’d have his Bird rights at that point, but wouldn’t be allowed to sign him for more than the number on that option year…. Thanks, Eric in Madison.
I don’t see why in the heck you’d pick up that deal. The risk that Corey plays well enough to justify a deal bigger than the option year is small, given past performance. Anyway I personally don’t see Corey absolutely blowing up. Clearing the extra money could mean the difference between an okay free agent and a very solid one. I’d have to gently say “no,” much as I like the kid personally.
yep
I wouldn’t pick up the option on Brewer at this point—I just think the risk is minimal. Kahn seems to have a very tight view of his core, and everyone else will be managed for cap space. Of the guys on the team right now, I expect that:
Jefferson
Love
Hollins
Sessions
Flynn
Ellington
are the only ones on the roster at the start of the 2010-2011 season. And I won’t be surprised if any of those guys are traded.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 14, 2009 8:24 AM CDT up reply actions
I read something around here that gave me the impression that Gomes and Brewer could become part of that core but that Kahn wasn’t entirely sure .. that he would gauge them this year (or until february)
We got Rubio!
by Wim (Belgium) on Sep 14, 2009 8:38 AM CDT up reply actions
Sure
though of course he has to make a specific decision on Brewer’s option before the season.
Frankly, although I have absolutely no evidence for this, I think his remark was more lip service than anything. Sure, if Gomes blows up, he might keep him. Brewer’s iffier, because if he doesn’t pick up the option, and Brewer blows up, he can get more money elsewhere.
My sense is that he doesn’t envision spending his cap space on either of those guys, unless the unforeseen happens. And that’s fine with me. Use your energies and assets to get the absolute best players you can. I doubt that includes Gomes or Brewer. Yes, any good team needs quality role players, but don’t hamstring your salary situation to keep role players who haven’t helped you win just because they have a little history with the franchise.
As for the core, I see it as Jefferson, Love, Sessions, and hopefully Flynn of the guys currently on the roster. Hollins and Ellington hopefully emerge as capable role guys. This team does not have a lot of talent.
by Eric in Madison on Sep 14, 2009 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions
It looks a little
rosier is you consider the Pekovic and Rubio euro assets, but I see your point. There is no starting quality 2/3 talent.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 14, 2009 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
One thing Wim
The Q Rich line has two trades with the clippers. I’m sure that was just a copy error, but I did do a double take my first time through.
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
Nice work.
And if one considers Sessions and Hollins and the new coaches, the off-season has been, well, off the charts.
Great Chart
Thanks for summing up the wildest off season ever. Its funny looking at my wolves yearbook from last year since more than half the player in it are replaced. Kahn is doing work…
It's all on paper
All of these moves are, in a sense, theoretical. We don’t know if ANY of them will lead to victories next year or down the road. While posters here get excited over “assets” and cap numbers, the casual fan only cares about wins. I hope they do win, and I hope it happens soon enough for fans to be brought back to the team. The NBA’s money rules are a double-edged sword. They make it impossible for there to a Yankees-like team that can spend without regard for reality, but they create a system where about half of the players in the league have value, not for their playing abilities, but for the terms of their contracts.
I think you will find
that many of the posters who are excited about these financial type moves realize that the one thing that handicapped the KG era other than his massive contract was the poor cap management and value decisions that McHale and Co. made. It was truly a shame that the organization couldn’t have made better use out of such a talent. Those talents don’t come around very often and you have to be ready when they do. It is just nice to see the org get the ship in order preparing for that type of day. I want an MN championship…not 8 years of 1st round exits. If I have to sit through 5 years of crap to get that…so be it.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 13, 2009 12:36 PM CDT up reply actions
I would agree with everything you post, but there are teams (i.e. the Clippers) who are perpetually in a position to pick up high draft value and still never have their talent coalesce into quality teams. We hope Kahn & co. will be more intelligent, more prescient and (most of all) luckier than that. Certainly what you say applies to the dominant teams from last year (Lakers, Cavs, Magic). Each had a dominant star who basically came via the draft (Kobe, sort of) and was in a position to challenge due to the pieces their management was able to put around those stars. I would also agree with Kahn that our best pieces (Big Al & Love) may never be the caliber of Kobe, Lebron or Howard. So can anyone assure we will acquire a talent of that level in any draft? Of course not. Even when we seem to get close (Rubio, perhaps) we seem to be snake bit. I am simply saying that it says something about the state of our franchise that we get jazzed over an off season that leaves us likely to still be one of the worst teams in the league. Don’t get me wrong, I am a season ticket holder. I want them to be entertaining and competitive.
by ogishkemuncie on Sep 13, 2009 12:50 PM CDT up reply actions
You can't place a value on
having a well run franchise. The problem with the Clippers is that Sterling (owner) doesnt’ care about winning. He only cares about profit. It is why the clippers pick who they do. They only pick the players with the most hype that they think will sell tickets. Sad…but true.
I agree with the snake bit…but the Rubio thing isn’t over yet. As to next year, I think that even if they win about the same number of games, the style of play will be much more enjoyable. I have a hard time believing that you show up to games just to watch a win and don’t care about how fun…or unfun the style of play is. You will see the wolves push it whenever they have an opportunity to. Gone are the days or walking it up and playing lackluster halfcourt offense and then passing it to Al with 6 seconds left.
And that is a win in my book. If I keep hearing all of the moves over the next two years to be for financial reasons…I will be seriously dissapointed.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 13, 2009 1:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes. This is the concern.
I think we’re all excited about the “flexibility” being created. But what I’m slightly worried about, in the back of my mind, is that Taylor hired someone to slash costs, with enough PR savvy to sell it to the fans as “hope for the future.”
Next year’s offseason, in my book, will tell us if this is the case. By this time next year, it will be exceedingly clear whether the Wolves have any designs on being competitive, or whether they’re just cutting costs and calling it “flexibility.” Kahn should add major talent next summer. If he just continues this house-cleaning financial stuff, it’ll be pretty obvious what’s going on.
You're right about next season, but...
I don’t see our moves this year solely about financial house cleaning. We took on salary in the #5 deal out of the gate without future promise of future deals. We signed Hollins and now Sessions using all of our MLE, we didn’t have to. Hollins especially was a deal that a team looking to cut all possible costs wouldn’t make.
This was discussed in a prior post on this board, but to me Kahn’s moves can be separated into talent acquisition and cap flexability. He’s shuffled a lot of non-essential personnel to balance the talent acquisition portion of his dealings. This is where his excellence has shown through this summer.
As others have mentioned, we don’t know if Kahn’s identified the right players as far as talent. Flynn, Sessions, Hollins, and Ellington are his guys. We have to wait to see how he does in this regard.
I don’t think that Taylor hires Rambis with a cost slashing job in mind. Kahn talked of a 16 month rebuild and I think that’s what we’re going to get.
by Blond Ricky on Sep 13, 2009 10:16 PM CDT up reply actions
One thing to add to the chart?
Rubio’s rights aren’t free in terms of salary cap commitment. With that $3 millionish in cap hold our net for 2010 goes up a little. I’m not complaining though as overall it’s been an excellent offseason.
KAHN = HOPE
Yeah, the Twolves will win it all — someday. At least this seems to be a goal. You need 2-3 stars to win it all. Lakers had Kobe and Gasol last year and a bunch of other good players.
Who on the Twolves fits or potentially fits the star part in the future:
Flynn at PG
Jefferson at PF
Need one more star
Who fits the good players:
Sessions
Kevin Love
Rubio or player for Rubio
The fact that we have four really good players on the roster is an improvement. Who knows , maybe Ellington makes it five? Need 1 more potential star (at SG, SF, or C) and a few more good bench players. And Kahn will work to add them.
Big Al
is our C. Until that changes, people might as well get used to it
Well then...
You can give up hope for this year. Maybe in next year’s draft…although it likely won’t be until after they pick a wing prospect. This draft is fairly deep at C, but not so much Wing.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 17, 2009 1:30 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah. Sad but true. Even David Kahn doesn’t expect to make the playoffs for a couple of years.
But why go for a wing first (unless you’re talking a LeBron / Kobe level)?
Just speculation on my part
I would guess that the wolves will pick about 4-6th. At that point, Wall is gone, as are the more ready Cs. There are only 2 real 2/3 types on my radar right now and I just figure they may likely be the BPA at that point. Way to early to tell though.
by TheEvilProfessor on Sep 17, 2009 2:05 PM CDT up reply actions
Why go for a wing first?
What is your rationale for going for a C first? We have Big Al, Love, and Hollins. All of whom are capable of playing minutes at the 5 spot. Big Al is as good of a center as we’ll find. He is not undersized. His wingspan more than makes up for his 2 inches less of height that his head has. When he is motivated, he can do a tremendous job on man defense (ask Mr. Duncan-who is a capable center). I don’t think having Al Jefferson at the 5 spot is going to turn us into “No Hopers” as you put it. On the contrary, I think once Love develops into a solid PF, Flynn gets some experience, Sessions gets comfortable here, and we get a Wing, Al Jefferson’s deficiencies as a C will be covered up a lot better. A lot of this also has to do with getting rid of the weakest backcourt in the NBA.
by Mplax on Sep 18, 2009 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
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