Houston Postgame Open Thread (Talk amongst yourselves)
by wyn on Jan 14, 2010 2:45 PM CST
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As Stop-n-Pop mentioned earlier this week he and Ms. -n-Pop are expecting their 3rd child this weekend, so we'll just have to make due until next Wednesday without him.
Because I realized long ago that his game analysis is far superior than mine, I won't try to fill in by doing recaps. Instead, I'll open the floor to all community members after posing a few potential topics of discussion (inspired largely by last night's epic GameThread).
- Kevin Love's playing time. Is 31 minutes enough in a triple-overtime game? Was Love a bad matchup with the Rockets? Were the Wolves' other 4s just playing better?
- Wayne Ellington's strong play. Is Wayne making the most of extended minutes? Or is he playing his way into a bigger part of the rotation? Are you worried that Wayne's taking minutes from Pavlovic (har har har)?
- Aaron Brooks is an excellent scorer, but was his career high due to the Wolves' defense, extra minutes or of his own accord? Has Jonny Flynn's defense improved or degraded as the season's gone on?
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We looked like complete dog shit the first quarter..then then they played good
Brewer hitting that shot was sick…but in the end we found a way to lose again.
Losing is Good
I hate saying it, but losing is a good thing. This team needs, in the worst way, an influx of talent on the perimeter. I think Evan Turner will go #2 in the draft and Wolves need a very good shot at drafting him. There just aren’t very many 6’7" guys with close to a 7’ wingspan that has the overall talent that he has. He can score in every way imaginable. He is a serviceable shooter. He makes his teammates better. He can be the alpha dog. If Al can be a 50% shooter with that paint crowded as much as it is now, imagine him paired with an excellent perimeter player and some 3 point shooters. This year was going to be a bad year, we all knew that. It is awful to watch, but it is something that needs to be done. All I ask is to see improvement. Al has improved month-to-month since coming back from the ACL tear. Jonny has cut down on his TOs. He is setting up the offense well. Corey is showing that he is a serviceable NBA player and could be an excellent player off the bench. Love is showing that he is one of the most efficient players in the NBA and can fit well within the triangle. As long as I see improvement like this, I am happy, but this team really needs a player like Evan Turner and that is why I can put up with this. David Kahn being such a good friends with David Stern has to have some benefits, doesn’t it?
KahnSternNation
Never imagined them as friends with benefits. Sorry, could not refrain from that quip.
We all know that art is not the truth, art is a lie that makes us realize the truth.--Picasso
Morey's talent evaluation
Every time I see Aaron Brooks and/or Shane Battier play, it really makes me feel good about Ricky Rubio. The fact that Daryl Morey was willing to give BOTH of them up for Rubio really says a lot about how much he values Rubio as a player. The jury is still out on Kahn, but I definitely trust Morey’s ability to evaluate talent (Landry, Brooks, Scola, Budinger, etc…).
Along those lines
I didn’t get a chance to see the game last night, but how similar is Jonny Flynn to Aaron Brooks? I looked up Brooks’ stats on basketball-reference, and he and JFly seem eerily similar – basically small, fast scorers at the PG position. Would Jonny Flynn have a role on this team in 2 years if he turned out to be Aaron Brooks 2.0?
I’m lovin’ Wellington. I had made a prediction during the pre-season that Wellington might be the best rookie/young guy on our team production wise over the last month of the season. We’ll see if that prediction comes true, but the trend is looking good. I would love to read more analysis of his development these last couple weeks from knowledgeable CH sources as I haven’t been able to watch any of the games.
Finally, I have to agree that winning isn’t that important to this squad right now. Or rather, what is more important is fielding a team that looks like this:
Rubio at PG
Turner at the 2/3
Love/Al at the 4/5
JFly off the bench
I’m really high on both Rubio and Turner, and I really believe that if both are playing for the T-Puppies in 2011-2012 we’ll all suddenly be asking what feels like a ridiculous question right now, but ‘are Al and Love even the best two players on the team anymore?’ (assuming they aren’t traded). Both Rubio and Turner are the real deals, and while Love will continue to develop into an outstanding player, I think both he and Al are going to be what they are – unique players in the NBA but not the ‘stars’ Rubio and Turner could be. Love is creating his own mold, and Al will throwing down 20-10 with the best efficiency and shot attempts within 10’ of the basket until he’s 80.
In the time it’ll take before 2011-2012 rolls around my hope is that we’ll find the mythical D-5 player (defensive center), and either a top notch shooter or defender at the 2/3 (Wellington/Brewer?) for mismatch purposes.
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
Ellington has definitely earned PT
My observations are that he is probably one of our more fundamentally sound players. His primary limitation right now is 1) he can’t really create his own shot, and 2) He needs more confidence. #1 will probably never happen, but #2 will hopefully happen as he continues to get more PT and adjusts to the NBA.
My hope is that he becomes the SG version of Ryan Gomes, except with a more prolific outside shot. That would be an excellent ROI for the 28th pick.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 14, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions
biggity2bit - you need typing lessons...every time you try to type Ellington, it becomes Wellington...lol...
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 14, 2010 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
(Cue cannon fire)
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Isn't that a pessimistic estimate?
I mean, Brooks spent time in the D-League as a 22-year-old rookie, and Flynn is averaging 4 fewer ppg than him this season despite being 4 years younger. Since his bad and good shooting nights have often correlated with what he was doing from the perimeter and he has a fundamentally-sound shot, it’s not out of the question that he’d average over 20 pts/36 minutes in his prime.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jan 14, 2010 9:51 PM CST up reply actions
Good thought and reminder Blakely
Considering that he expects a good player in return for essentially an expiring contract (T-Mac) it does give some insight into how highly he thinks of Rubio. Patience fellow Wolves fans.
He was just selling high and buying low there
Those are two very good players, yes, but Brooks is what he is ( in addition to being redundant with Flynn) and Battier’s getting worse. If I were Morey I’d trade away a waterbug scoring PG and a declining player for a developing possible star as well.
Didn't see the game, but you know what's cool?
At the end of the year, when they do the top 10 plays of the NBA season on ESPN, there’s a decent chance Corey Brewer will own two of them.
Rubio
Exciting game last night for sure. Disappointed with Love’s lack of PT but nice to Ellington in there that much. Just wanted to mention that Rubio played today and put up 14 p, 10 a, and 4 st in 25 minutes. Didn’t get to watch his game but dammmmn!
Adjusted numbers
First, if Rubio had played 36 minutes last night, his line would be 20 points, 14 or 15 assists, and 5-6 steals.
If Rubio had played 36 minutes in the NBA like he did last night, his numbers would be:
15 points, 18-19 assists, and probably 4-6 steals.
Baller!!
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jan 14, 2010 4:46 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Also, I think last night was a good example of what Big Al can do....
….when he’s not fighting a size mismatch like he is most nights.
I think, if we keep Al long term, we have to find a way to move him back to PF.
Remember Al vs Yao? Offensively, Al is unbelievable, especially when there were some 3 point shooters on team.
That's more of an anomaly though
Historically Al does very poorly against big centers like Oden, Bynum, Howard and Shaq. But great against power forwards like Aldridge, Gasol, Stoudemire, and Dirk.
In 2007-2008 vs ORL he went 25 and 10 on 20 shots and 18 and 11 on 19 shots, vs LAL he went 24 and 15 on 24 shots, 12 and 12 on 14 shots, 19 and 9 on 9 shots, vs Miami he went 22 and 20 on 18 shots, 18 and 10 on 20 shots, vs POR he went 22 and 7 on 12 shots, 29 and 16 on 24 shots, 20 and 10 on 21 shots, 18 and 11 on 16 shots. Overall he went 21 and 11 on 17.6 shots. In 2008-2009 vs ORL he went 19 an 8 on 18 shots, 16 and 7 on 21 shots, vs LAL he went 20 and 13 on 24 shots, 34 and 13 on 27 shots, vs Phoenix he went 28 and 17 on 23 shots, 22 and 12 on 21 shots, vs POR he went 27 and 5 on 23 shots and 26 and 6 on 16 shots (not a typo). Overall he went 23.1 and 11 on 19.5 shots.
This guy is unbelievable. He can play with the best of them when he has hardly any talent surrounding him. When Kahn can put a great perimeter player and a solid perimeter player around him he will be considered one of the best talents in the game and he will also be more efficient because it will force them to play him more 1 on 1. This season has to be him working on passing out of the post so he isn’t considered a black hole and opposing teams can double him whenever they want without any threat of Al’s teammates scoring.
True
Jefferson can score on most anyone. However, most of those numbers are not very impressive in terms of efficiency. And Jefferson’s big weakness (on offense) has always been scoring efficiency. This year he is essentially last among centers in points per possession. Last year, when he was fully on his game he was unimpressive compared to other centers as well (15th of 19 qualified). Everyone has gone back and forth on this board about how much of this can be blamed on the his role on a poor team, but he’s never proven to be an efficient scorer. It probably goes hand in hand with poor shot selection/failure to pass, and can certainly can be improved, since it’s not due to lack of skill.
Again, the reason for the inefficiency is that he never really had anyone take any attention away from him. Kahn is on a mission to get a #1 player and I believe that Evan Turner can be that man. Now, if we can get him, he would draw a lot of attention away from him and will cause other team’s to double him and then one of the bigs and he will be defended in 1 vs 1 situations and more fouls are likely to happen or when they double defenders will have to travel a longer distance also making fouls more likely. The other problem with Al’s inefficiency is that he never has really learned how pass out of the post. That is a major problem because teams will be able to double down on him without having to worry about another player scoring. Now with Rambis he is learning how to pass out of the post and the footwork so he can repost better after he passes it out. This will allow more room to operate and will lead to easier situations to draw fouls.
More appropriate comparison
A more appropriate comparison would be to compare the efficiency of other team’s leading scorers to Al Jefferson’s efficiency. Most starting centers don’t have the burden of the entire offense on their shoulders and tend to get easier shots as a result.
Of the 30 NBA teams, I wonder where Jefferson ranks in terms of efficiency of leading scorers? (especially last year).
Probably better ways of answering this
But it was fastest to just look at PPS from last year on a list of players sorted by PPG. Assuming I checked off all the teams, Big Al tied for 28th. Detroit (Hamilton at 1.17 PPS) and Memphis (Gay and Mayo both at 1.18 PPS). Jefferson at 1.19 PPS tied the top scorer from the Hawks (Johnson). Equivalent comparisons for Jefferson at center include Bosh (1.38) Amare (1.51) Howard (1.66) and Yao (1.47), although only Bosh really carried the scoring for his team.
If the sort is FG attempts per game, of the 32 players wih > 15 FGA per game, only LMA, Gay, Monta, and Hamilton had lower PPS, with Al tying Zach Randolph and Johnson.
Look, my point here is that it’s shot selection. we all know that one on one Jefferson converts a very high percentage, so a low efficiency really has to come from going away from what he does best and taking poor shots, be they outside his range or into a double team. Those ill advised shots have to be low percentage enough to drag down his overall efficiency into a really bad neighborhood. Logically then, I have to believe the conversion efficiency of these shots has to be below even the efficiency of a standard shot from his poor shooting teammates. Thus, forcing it because his teammates can’t be counted on to convert is a wrong-headed decision in the first place, and he doesn’t get a pass on it.
Al will probably never be very efficient
I agree that with better players around him his efficiency can go up, but probably not by a lot. One problem is that he doesn’t have the athleticism to put himself in position for easy dunks/fouls. How often do you see Al rolling to the hoop for an ally-oop dunk? Or how often is he streaking down the court ahead of his defender in transition for easy buckets? The answer is almost never. Guys like Stoudemire and Bosh are so superior athletically that even if they don’t have the greatest post moves, they are way better able to play off the ball and put themselves in position for easy looks, which either results in dunks or trips to the foul line.
And unlike Love, I never see Jefferson inviting contact with his post game. If he hasn’t done it in 7 seasons, he won’t do it going forward. His preference is to juke, fake, and slither his way to buckets as opposed to initiating contact and then trying to get a shot off. He may be a low post virtuoso that is fun to watch, but the fact remains he requires a lot of shots to get his points.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 15, 2010 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
"a low post virtuoso that is fun to watch"
I would contend that his arsenal is “fun” only for the diehard basketball fan. Casual observers like the fast break, dunks, the long ball, and deft passes. None of which are particular strengths for Jefferson, which makes it even more difficult to market this team beyond the 1787.
True
Many purists enjoy watching a guy use skill, guile, and touch as opposed to brute force. But yeah, casual observers probably see Al as more of a lunch pail kind of guy.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 15, 2010 4:50 PM CST up reply actions
awesome
thanks! I has assumed this type of analysis would make Al look a bit better.
And yes, these data along with Jefferson’s obvious low post scoring skills do suggest that Al could increase his efficiency by avoiding “bad” shots. As you say, he should pass out of double teams and either a) put in some more serious work on his jump shot or b) stop shooting it.
Hopefully Rambis will get him to move the ball. If he won’t move the ball, that’s reason enough to trade him (at least for an as equally inefficient scorer).
Perhaps a sign and trade for Josh Childress and Marvin Williams. Atlanta can move Josh Smith to the 3. (this literally popped into my head 20 second ago and is probably both a horrible idea and not feasible).
All of those teams were also able to double team Al and often did. If we had shooters, I'm confident Al would more than hold his own on the offensive end.
Al has “some” problems when his is facing a tall, athletic opponent AND the opposition can harass him with doubles and triples.
If he is facing that tall, athletic opponent one on one when healthy, its not a problem
Also without the double and triple teams its not a problem.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 15, 2010 6:24 AM CST up reply actions
How will he defend Todd Murphy?
Al is worse defensively at PF.
by WinTheLottery on Jan 14, 2010 10:29 PM CST up reply actions
The old timberwolf?
or did you mean Troy Murphy?
by littleboxes on Jan 14, 2010 10:57 PM CST up reply actions
Al's game last night
If that were late 2008 or early 2009, that game would have been nothing out of the ordinary. Granted 26 rebounds is clearly an aberration, but there were 3 OT’s and Love didn’t play as much down the stretch. But Al was consistently having games where he could fairly be called a “beast,” demanding the ball, making shots, pulling down rebounds, and keeping the Wolves in the game. That’s the player who should have (and hopefully will in the future) made the All-Star team and has a trade value that’s much-higher than this year’s Al has.
Hopefully it served as a reminder for anyone who forgot.
Yes,
and like most of those games in late 2008 or early 2009, the other thing last night that was nothing out of the ordinary was that the Wolves lost.
(I’m not sayin’, I’m just sayin’).
I said this on the other thread but
watching the game last night Ellington shot the ball well but had 4 or 5 to’s and I don’t recall an assist. His defense was as bad as Flynn’s. Just because a player shoots it well doesn’t mean he played well. I understand if a player scores he looks better than a guy shooting poorly but much more to the game than just FG%. Just an old basketball players take and I do mean old.
Rare skillset
I agree he made some bad mistakes, but overall he was a +7 in a game we lost. Wayne is extremely valuable to us right now because he has something that no one else has on our squad – a pure shooting stroke.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 14, 2010 8:38 PM CST up reply actions
What is happening with Alando Tucker?
"I tell one of my media colleagues to watch Hollins, who regards cutters entering his vicinity with the sort of startled amazement newborn infants have when their own appendages enter their vision for the first times."
-Britt Robson
I'd at least like to see him play a little
It’d be nice to find out if he’s a younger, cheaper replacement for Pavs or Wilkins, know what I mean?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
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