FanPost

Mathletics - Wayne Winston on the Timberwolves


Wayne Winston just posted an analysis of the Timberwolves on his blog, Mathletics.

Winston is a big proponent of +/- statistics; he was the expert who argued that Kevin Durant wasn't a positive influence on the Zombie Sonics over the first two years of his career and that Luol Deng is an MVP candidate this year. Agree or disagree with his results or his methods, he has interesting data and interesting conclusions.

One thing I don't like about his blog is the way he posts tables. Below is his data reorganized; first by minutes played per five man unit, and second by actual +/-.

 

As always with data, sample size must be taken into consideration; some of these five man units haven't played a single game worth of minutes together, and their data is going to be unreliable.

That being said, Ryan Hollins is not playing on any good five man units. Also, our starting lineup isn't that awful. The depth is killing them, especially in the low post. I'd call for keeping Jefferson, if only because we really cannot survive with Pecherov, Hollins or Jawai getting a lot of minutes.

Sorted by Minutes Played

1 2 3 4 5 Age Minutes Actual Theory Offense Defense Impact Z-Score Sigma Games
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.2 241.61 -2.05 -5.82    1.63    7.45   -7.83   -0.70    7.94 81
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Hollins 24.45 111.63 -22.79 -16.70   -8.69    8.01  -30.64   -1.94    8.49  37
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Gomes  Jefferson 25.4 108.28 -4.86 -8.56   -1.35    7.20  -28.42   -1.30    6.86  34
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.22 82.93 4.03 3.99    1.13   -2.86   18.58    0.46    7.77   31
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.67 51.13 5.73 7.68    6.66   -1.02   15.04    0.54    8.73   30
Sessions Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.76 43.24 14.02 2.58    1.21   -1.37    5.35    0.10    6.36   31
Flynn  Ellington Brewer Gomes  Jefferson 23.83 38.73 -16.76 -3.00    0.24    3.25   10.44   -0.16    6.72   17
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Hollins Jawai  24.1 37.98 25.77 -12.31   -8.03    4.28  -34.25   -1.65    8.98   17
Sessions Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.89 31.78 44.47 18.75    6.66  -12.09   40.04    1.76    6.10   22
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Jefferson Hollins 24.98 26.3 -52.19 -30.20  -13.72   16.48  -53.52   -3.18    5.09   21
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Love   Jefferson 23.65 26.18 -40.96 -4.20    2.35    6.55    2.86   -0.46    9.14   18
Flynn  Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.32 25.5 30.2 10.35    7.08   -3.27   26.86    0.97    8.56   22
Sessions Pavlovic Wilkins Pecherov Jawai  25.42 25.24 2.97 -9.05   -4.11    4.94  -36.08   -1.39    8.33   19
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Gomes  Jefferson 24.85 22.58 48.99 -6.94   -0.64    6.30  -17.73   -1.07    8.24   13
Sessions Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.79 20.17 45.41 12.39    0.71  -11.68   31.76    1.26    5.43   10

 

Sorted by Actual +/-

1 2 3 4 5 Age Minutes Actual Theory Offense Defense Impact Z-Score Sigma Games
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Gomes  Jefferson 24.85 22.58 48.99 -6.94   -0.64    6.30  -17.73   -1.07    8.24   13
Sessions Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.79 20.17 45.41 12.39    0.71  -11.68   31.76    1.26    5.43   10
Sessions Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.89 31.78 44.47 18.75    6.66  -12.09   40.04    1.76    6.10   22
Flynn  Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.32 25.5 30.2 10.35    7.08   -3.27   26.86    0.97    8.56   22
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Hollins Jawai  24.1 37.98 25.77 -12.31   -8.03    4.28  -34.25   -1.65    8.98   17
Sessions Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.76 43.24 14.02 2.58    1.21   -1.37    5.35    0.10    6.36   31
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.67 51.13 5.73 7.68    6.66   -1.02   15.04    0.54    8.73   30
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.22 82.93 4.03 3.99    1.13   -2.86   18.58    0.46    7.77   31
Sessions Pavlovic Wilkins Pecherov Jawai  25.42 25.24 2.97 -9.05   -4.11    4.94  -36.08   -1.39    8.33   19
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.2 241.61 -2.05 -5.82    1.63    7.45   -7.83   -0.70    7.94 81
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Gomes  Jefferson 25.4 108.28 -4.86 -8.56   -1.35    7.20  -28.42   -1.30    6.86  34
Flynn  Ellington Brewer Gomes  Jefferson 23.83 38.73 -16.76 -3.00    0.24    3.25   10.44   -0.16    6.72   17
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Hollins 24.45 111.63 -22.79 -16.70   -8.69    8.01  -30.64   -1.94    8.49  37
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Love   Jefferson 23.65 26.18 -40.96 -4.20    2.35    6.55    2.86   -0.46    9.14   18
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Jefferson Hollins 24.98 26.3 -52.19 -30.20  -13.72   16.48  -53.52   -3.18    5.09   21
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