Mathletics - Wayne Winston on the Timberwolves
Wayne Winston just posted an analysis of the Timberwolves on his blog, Mathletics.
Winston is a big proponent of +/- statistics; he was the expert who argued that Kevin Durant wasn't a positive influence on the Zombie Sonics over the first two years of his career and that Luol Deng is an MVP candidate this year. Agree or disagree with his results or his methods, he has interesting data and interesting conclusions.
One thing I don't like about his blog is the way he posts tables. Below is his data reorganized; first by minutes played per five man unit, and second by actual +/-.
As always with data, sample size must be taken into consideration; some of these five man units haven't played a single game worth of minutes together, and their data is going to be unreliable.
That being said, Ryan Hollins is not playing on any good five man units. Also, our starting lineup isn't that awful. The depth is killing them, especially in the low post. I'd call for keeping Jefferson, if only because we really cannot survive with Pecherov, Hollins or Jawai getting a lot of minutes.
Sorted by Minutes Played
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Age | Minutes | Actual | Theory | Offense | Defense | Impact | Z-Score | Sigma | Games |
| Flynn | Brewer | Wilkins | Love | Jefferson | 24.2 | 241.61 | -2.05 | -5.82 | 1.63 | 7.45 | -7.83 | -0.70 | 7.94 | 81 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | Hollins | 24.45 | 111.63 | -22.79 | -16.70 | -8.69 | 8.01 | -30.64 | -1.94 | 8.49 | 37 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Wilkins | Gomes | Jefferson | 25.4 | 108.28 | -4.86 | -8.56 | -1.35 | 7.20 | -28.42 | -1.30 | 6.86 | 34 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | Pecherov | 24.22 | 82.93 | 4.03 | 3.99 | 1.13 | -2.86 | 18.58 | 0.46 | 7.77 | 31 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Love | Jefferson | 23.67 | 51.13 | 5.73 | 7.68 | 6.66 | -1.02 | 15.04 | 0.54 | 8.73 | 30 |
| Sessions | Brewer | Wilkins | Love | Jefferson | 24.76 | 43.24 | 14.02 | 2.58 | 1.21 | -1.37 | 5.35 | 0.10 | 6.36 | 31 |
| Flynn | Ellington | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | 23.83 | 38.73 | -16.76 | -3.00 | 0.24 | 3.25 | 10.44 | -0.16 | 6.72 | 17 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Hollins | Jawai | 24.1 | 37.98 | 25.77 | -12.31 | -8.03 | 4.28 | -34.25 | -1.65 | 8.98 | 17 |
| Sessions | Ellington | Gomes | Love | Jefferson | 23.89 | 31.78 | 44.47 | 18.75 | 6.66 | -12.09 | 40.04 | 1.76 | 6.10 | 22 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Wilkins | Jefferson | Hollins | 24.98 | 26.3 | -52.19 | -30.20 | -13.72 | 16.48 | -53.52 | -3.18 | 5.09 | 21 |
| Sessions | Ellington | Pavlovic | Love | Jefferson | 23.65 | 26.18 | -40.96 | -4.20 | 2.35 | 6.55 | 2.86 | -0.46 | 9.14 | 18 |
| Flynn | Ellington | Gomes | Love | Jefferson | 23.32 | 25.5 | 30.2 | 10.35 | 7.08 | -3.27 | 26.86 | 0.97 | 8.56 | 22 |
| Sessions | Pavlovic | Wilkins | Pecherov | Jawai | 25.42 | 25.24 | 2.97 | -9.05 | -4.11 | 4.94 | -36.08 | -1.39 | 8.33 | 19 |
| Sessions | Ellington | Pavlovic | Gomes | Jefferson | 24.85 | 22.58 | 48.99 | -6.94 | -0.64 | 6.30 | -17.73 | -1.07 | 8.24 | 13 |
| Sessions | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | Pecherov | 24.79 | 20.17 | 45.41 | 12.39 | 0.71 | -11.68 | 31.76 | 1.26 | 5.43 | 10 |
Sorted by Actual +/-
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | Age | Minutes | Actual | Theory | Offense | Defense | Impact | Z-Score | Sigma | Games |
| Sessions | Ellington | Pavlovic | Gomes | Jefferson | 24.85 | 22.58 | 48.99 | -6.94 | -0.64 | 6.30 | -17.73 | -1.07 | 8.24 | 13 |
| Sessions | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | Pecherov | 24.79 | 20.17 | 45.41 | 12.39 | 0.71 | -11.68 | 31.76 | 1.26 | 5.43 | 10 |
| Sessions | Ellington | Gomes | Love | Jefferson | 23.89 | 31.78 | 44.47 | 18.75 | 6.66 | -12.09 | 40.04 | 1.76 | 6.10 | 22 |
| Flynn | Ellington | Gomes | Love | Jefferson | 23.32 | 25.5 | 30.2 | 10.35 | 7.08 | -3.27 | 26.86 | 0.97 | 8.56 | 22 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Hollins | Jawai | 24.1 | 37.98 | 25.77 | -12.31 | -8.03 | 4.28 | -34.25 | -1.65 | 8.98 | 17 |
| Sessions | Brewer | Wilkins | Love | Jefferson | 24.76 | 43.24 | 14.02 | 2.58 | 1.21 | -1.37 | 5.35 | 0.10 | 6.36 | 31 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Love | Jefferson | 23.67 | 51.13 | 5.73 | 7.68 | 6.66 | -1.02 | 15.04 | 0.54 | 8.73 | 30 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | Pecherov | 24.22 | 82.93 | 4.03 | 3.99 | 1.13 | -2.86 | 18.58 | 0.46 | 7.77 | 31 |
| Sessions | Pavlovic | Wilkins | Pecherov | Jawai | 25.42 | 25.24 | 2.97 | -9.05 | -4.11 | 4.94 | -36.08 | -1.39 | 8.33 | 19 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Wilkins | Love | Jefferson | 24.2 | 241.61 | -2.05 | -5.82 | 1.63 | 7.45 | -7.83 | -0.70 | 7.94 | 81 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Wilkins | Gomes | Jefferson | 25.4 | 108.28 | -4.86 | -8.56 | -1.35 | 7.20 | -28.42 | -1.30 | 6.86 | 34 |
| Flynn | Ellington | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | 23.83 | 38.73 | -16.76 | -3.00 | 0.24 | 3.25 | 10.44 | -0.16 | 6.72 | 17 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Gomes | Jefferson | Hollins | 24.45 | 111.63 | -22.79 | -16.70 | -8.69 | 8.01 | -30.64 | -1.94 | 8.49 | 37 |
| Sessions | Ellington | Pavlovic | Love | Jefferson | 23.65 | 26.18 | -40.96 | -4.20 | 2.35 | 6.55 | 2.86 | -0.46 | 9.14 | 18 |
| Flynn | Brewer | Wilkins | Jefferson | Hollins | 24.98 | 26.3 | -52.19 | -30.20 | -13.72 | 16.48 | -53.52 | -3.18 | 5.09 | 21 |
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"I'd call for keeping Jefferson,
if only because we really cannot survive with Pecherov, Hollins or Jawai getting a lot of minutes."
This argument for keeping Jefferson doesn’t make any sense. Do you really think the Wolves would trade him with no alternative for center than this three-headed monster of crapitude? Or that Jefferson wouldn’t bring back a wing player who could perhaps defend on the perimeter, making life easier for the Wolves’ people in the paint? Or that the wing player could perhaps actually create his own shot, hit the three consistently, or even pass the ball to an open man?
The Wolves could certainly be made worse by trading Jefferson. But it’s highly unlikely that they would receive absolutely nothing in return that could at least partially offset the loss of his talents.
If this is for the full season, it includes "pre-Love" data and the Jefferson data when he was earlier in his recovery from injury.
I’ve posted similar NBA.com data for the last 10 games, which shows slightly different results.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 15, 2010 6:05 AM CST reply actions
"Agree or disagree with his results or his methods, he has interesting data and interesting conclusions"
Interesting = idiotic.
Pretty much confirms what we already knew
Several disappointed Wolves fans and readers of this blog have asked me to analyze the Wolves.
I was one of the disappointed fans who emailed him. He wrote me back and had this up within the day, kinda cool!
As I predicted, Love would have a ridiculously good +/-, Sessions would be much better than Flynn, and Pavlovic and Hollins are garbage. I didn’t expect Gomes to come out so well though.
The 5 man unit stuff seems less useful to me. With those, you’ve got 5 times as many variables, but your amount of time to analyze for each is dramatically less. The most you can really conclude is “this unit has shown success before. Maybe they should try it more.”

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