Navigation: Jump to content areas:


Pro Quality. Fan Perspective.
Login-facebook
Around SBN: Will Rhymes 'Fine' After Being Hit By Pitch And Fainting

Mathletics - Wayne Winston on the Timberwolves


Wayne Winston just posted an analysis of the Timberwolves on his blog, Mathletics.

Winston is a big proponent of +/- statistics; he was the expert who argued that Kevin Durant wasn't a positive influence on the Zombie Sonics over the first two years of his career and that Luol Deng is an MVP candidate this year. Agree or disagree with his results or his methods, he has interesting data and interesting conclusions.

Star-divide

One thing I don't like about his blog is the way he posts tables. Below is his data reorganized; first by minutes played per five man unit, and second by actual +/-.

 

As always with data, sample size must be taken into consideration; some of these five man units haven't played a single game worth of minutes together, and their data is going to be unreliable.

That being said, Ryan Hollins is not playing on any good five man units. Also, our starting lineup isn't that awful. The depth is killing them, especially in the low post. I'd call for keeping Jefferson, if only because we really cannot survive with Pecherov, Hollins or Jawai getting a lot of minutes.

Sorted by Minutes Played

1 2 3 4 5 Age Minutes Actual Theory Offense Defense Impact Z-Score Sigma Games
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.2 241.61 -2.05 -5.82    1.63    7.45   -7.83   -0.70    7.94 81
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Hollins 24.45 111.63 -22.79 -16.70   -8.69    8.01  -30.64   -1.94    8.49  37
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Gomes  Jefferson 25.4 108.28 -4.86 -8.56   -1.35    7.20  -28.42   -1.30    6.86  34
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.22 82.93 4.03 3.99    1.13   -2.86   18.58    0.46    7.77   31
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.67 51.13 5.73 7.68    6.66   -1.02   15.04    0.54    8.73   30
Sessions Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.76 43.24 14.02 2.58    1.21   -1.37    5.35    0.10    6.36   31
Flynn  Ellington Brewer Gomes  Jefferson 23.83 38.73 -16.76 -3.00    0.24    3.25   10.44   -0.16    6.72   17
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Hollins Jawai  24.1 37.98 25.77 -12.31   -8.03    4.28  -34.25   -1.65    8.98   17
Sessions Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.89 31.78 44.47 18.75    6.66  -12.09   40.04    1.76    6.10   22
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Jefferson Hollins 24.98 26.3 -52.19 -30.20  -13.72   16.48  -53.52   -3.18    5.09   21
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Love   Jefferson 23.65 26.18 -40.96 -4.20    2.35    6.55    2.86   -0.46    9.14   18
Flynn  Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.32 25.5 30.2 10.35    7.08   -3.27   26.86    0.97    8.56   22
Sessions Pavlovic Wilkins Pecherov Jawai  25.42 25.24 2.97 -9.05   -4.11    4.94  -36.08   -1.39    8.33   19
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Gomes  Jefferson 24.85 22.58 48.99 -6.94   -0.64    6.30  -17.73   -1.07    8.24   13
Sessions Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.79 20.17 45.41 12.39    0.71  -11.68   31.76    1.26    5.43   10

 

Sorted by Actual +/-

1 2 3 4 5 Age Minutes Actual Theory Offense Defense Impact Z-Score Sigma Games
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Gomes  Jefferson 24.85 22.58 48.99 -6.94   -0.64    6.30  -17.73   -1.07    8.24   13
Sessions Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.79 20.17 45.41 12.39    0.71  -11.68   31.76    1.26    5.43   10
Sessions Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.89 31.78 44.47 18.75    6.66  -12.09   40.04    1.76    6.10   22
Flynn  Ellington Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.32 25.5 30.2 10.35    7.08   -3.27   26.86    0.97    8.56   22
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Hollins Jawai  24.1 37.98 25.77 -12.31   -8.03    4.28  -34.25   -1.65    8.98   17
Sessions Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.76 43.24 14.02 2.58    1.21   -1.37    5.35    0.10    6.36   31
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Love   Jefferson 23.67 51.13 5.73 7.68    6.66   -1.02   15.04    0.54    8.73   30
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Pecherov 24.22 82.93 4.03 3.99    1.13   -2.86   18.58    0.46    7.77   31
Sessions Pavlovic Wilkins Pecherov Jawai  25.42 25.24 2.97 -9.05   -4.11    4.94  -36.08   -1.39    8.33   19
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Love   Jefferson 24.2 241.61 -2.05 -5.82    1.63    7.45   -7.83   -0.70    7.94 81
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Gomes  Jefferson 25.4 108.28 -4.86 -8.56   -1.35    7.20  -28.42   -1.30    6.86  34
Flynn  Ellington Brewer Gomes  Jefferson 23.83 38.73 -16.76 -3.00    0.24    3.25   10.44   -0.16    6.72   17
Flynn  Brewer Gomes  Jefferson Hollins 24.45 111.63 -22.79 -16.70   -8.69    8.01  -30.64   -1.94    8.49  37
Sessions Ellington Pavlovic Love   Jefferson 23.65 26.18 -40.96 -4.20    2.35    6.55    2.86   -0.46    9.14   18
Flynn  Brewer Wilkins Jefferson Hollins 24.98 26.3 -52.19 -30.20  -13.72   16.48  -53.52   -3.18    5.09   21

Comment 5 comments  |  0 recs  | 

Do you like this story?

More from Canis Hoopus

How to love Love

Dec 2011 by Stop-n-Pop - 476 comments

Wolves Updates 9/25

Sep 2010 by SG - 26 comments

Wolves Updates 9/13

Sep 2010 by SG - 15 comments

Wolves Updates 9/7

Sep 2010 by SG - 29 comments

Comments

Display:

"I'd call for keeping Jefferson,

if only because we really cannot survive with Pecherov, Hollins or Jawai getting a lot of minutes."

This argument for keeping Jefferson doesn’t make any sense. Do you really think the Wolves would trade him with no alternative for center than this three-headed monster of crapitude? Or that Jefferson wouldn’t bring back a wing player who could perhaps defend on the perimeter, making life easier for the Wolves’ people in the paint? Or that the wing player could perhaps actually create his own shot, hit the three consistently, or even pass the ball to an open man?

The Wolves could certainly be made worse by trading Jefferson. But it’s highly unlikely that they would receive absolutely nothing in return that could at least partially offset the loss of his talents.

by PoorDick on Jan 14, 2010 11:40 PM CST reply actions  

Pretty much confirms what we already knew
Several disappointed Wolves fans and readers of this blog have asked me to analyze the Wolves.

I was one of the disappointed fans who emailed him. He wrote me back and had this up within the day, kinda cool!

As I predicted, Love would have a ridiculously good +/-, Sessions would be much better than Flynn, and Pavlovic and Hollins are garbage. I didn’t expect Gomes to come out so well though.

The 5 man unit stuff seems less useful to me. With those, you’ve got 5 times as many variables, but your amount of time to analyze for each is dramatically less. The most you can really conclude is “this unit has shown success before. Maybe they should try it more.”

by John Doe on Jan 17, 2010 12:28 PM CST reply actions  

Comments For This Post Are Closed


User Tools

Canis Hoopus is straight T-Wolves straight from Minnesota.

FanPosts

Community blog posts and discussion.

Recommended FanPosts

Small
Around the League: Atlanta Hawks
Hello-kitty-color_small
Get. Will. Barton.
Franklin2_small
Some Thoughts on Glen Taylor's Recent Comments

Recent FanPosts

Small
A Poem by Rashad McCants
Franklin2_small
Revisiting Rudy Gay (with poll!)
Small
A name we haven't talked about but should be...
Wolfen_small
Another Draftable Wing Prospect?
Small
#12 Best Pure Shooter in NBA
Timberwolves_logo_old_292_small
Jazz guard Bell blasts Corbin
Small
Who will be a better NBA player?

+ New FanPost All FanPosts >

Canis Hoopus Twitter

    follow me on Twitter

    Hoopus Features

    HOOPUS FAQ

    Salary Cap Info

    Draft Info

    Player Movement Flow Charts

    Draft Boards

    Former Tag Lines:

    • In desperate need of an epic dose of basketball Viagra
    • Your source of radical left wing politics cleverly disguised as basketball fandom
    • Palin-Free since before statehood
    • Despairy Home Companion
    • The world's leading exporter of small area quickness
    • Sorry…I have no idea who is Joe Mauer
    • Home of the Peja deep douche
    • Vote McGrady!
    • Bork, bork, bork, bork, bork
    • Wir Sind Darko
    • Weird, unhealthy Darko mania
    • les goûts et les couleurs ne se discutent pas
    • Basketball success makes character issues forgivable
    • Building the Boogie Bandwagon
    • Building the Dream....One Power Forward At A Time
    • Kids, Puppy Dogs, And Long Walks In The Park
    • SWITCH THE FLIP!!!
    • Team Red Pill.
    • December is Bunny Month. Survive it with insincerity and Merle Haggard.
    • Like having a really good seat at a beheading.
    • We've got to have rules and obey them. After all, we're not savages. We're Wolves fans, and Wolves fans are best at everything.
    • Getting Real Mythological
    • Trapped in Punxsawawney
    • BIIYYYOOOMMMBOOOOOOO!!!
    • Estoy llevando mi talento a Minnesota
    • Where sharks do battle with giant eagles
    • You don’t put a saddle and reins on a magical unicorn, you bareback it and put faith in nature
    • Toeing the line between nerd and loser
    • If Theo Ratliff’s Expiring Contract could see us now...

    Hoopus Recipe Book

    Let's Settle This:


    Self-Promotion

    BallHype Sports Blog Rankings


    Managers

    Dr wyn

    Journey_small Stop-n-Pop

    Rviy7fbgmhz5ht2dpgo6q0jfu_small TimAllen

    Editors

    Wolveslogo_small Oceanary

    Authors

    Small SG

    Hrbek_small Jon Marthaler