Haven't we danced this dance before? A massive league suspension, a #1 pick out for the year, a trade deadline...

It is said that history repeats itself, and it would seem the NBA is no exception. The names may be different but the stories all seem the same, from Arenas to Blake Griffin to McGrady...well, this week has been full of NBA "truth and rumors". And of course, that trade deadline thingy is fast approaching, and teams are talking.

There's also some Wolves bites at the end: reaction to the Jefferson/Granger trade rumor, a video documentary on Ricky Rubio, and Ricky's highlights with his new team.

We'll get to the trade rumors in due scrollbar, but let's start with the players who most definitely will not be playing anytime soon...

Gilbert Arenas has plead guilty to felony charges as a result of having firearms in the Wizards' locker room:

For those of you not up to speed, check out the Prowling the NBA posts for Jan 3rd and Jan 10th.

The summary goes something like this: Arenas was storing guns in his lockerroom, which is against NBA policy and Washington DC law. There are reports he also drew one of them on teammate Javaris Crittenton, who drew one in return.

Arenas refused to take the situation seriously, which resulted in NBA Commissioner David Stern suspending him indefinitely without pay last week, even though the police investigation was still ongoing.

This week, DC prosecutors made their first legal charge against Arenas: one count of possession of a firearm without a license (Arenas has a license for the guns, but only law enforcement has license to carry them outside of personal property in the nation's capital). A court conviction would result in 5 years of prison time for Arenas.

ESPN unfortunately doesn't allow their videos to be embedded. For a more informative, comprehensive report, watch the ESPN's Outside the Lines vid here. (Very worth it)

Arenas finally got serious about the situation and reportedly agreed to a plea deal that will make the guilty count official on his record, but will keep him out of significant, and maybe any jail time. Arenas' defense attorney Kenneth Wainstein said that prosecutors have agreed to pursue the low end of the punishment for such a conviction; 0-6 months of either jail time, probation, or a combination of both.

Arenas is to be formally sentenced March 26th. It should be noted that the punishment the prosecution pursues is only a recommendation; the judge can sentence Arenas to the full 5 years, although that seems unlikely in this case.

Wainstein released a statement saying, "Arenas accepted full responsibility for his actions, acknowledged that those actions were wrong and against the law, and has apologized to all who have been affected by his conduct."

Police are also conducting an investigation into Crittenton, although no details have been released beyond a search warrant for his home to locate the alleged firearm he had.

Also of issue, as reported last week, is the possibility that Arenas' contract may be voided by the Wizards under the morals clause.

If the prosecution is successful in keeping Arenas' punishment to a minimum, it's unlikely that the Wizards will be able to successfully negotiate the clearing of Arenas' contract, since of the three votes the Wizards would need, the NBA Player's Union will most certainly vote no, and an outside arbitrator would probably lean towards the no side as well, considering that no lives were ever in danger (the guns were unloaded and no ammunition was stored with them)

However, if the sentence runs into the middle-to-high end of the maximum (2 years or more of jail time), the Wizards would have much more solid ground to stand on to cut Arenas loose, as he would thus be in prison for the duration of his contract, and the more severe penalty would certainly come with a more severe list of why Arenas was so out of line to use in arbitration.

For a good debate on the Arenas situation and his contract (and a video that is much more interesting than the one posted above) I turn you to Kenny, Sir Charles, and the always interesting TNT Studio Show.

Seriously, it's a good video to watch. Lots of points raised.

As I said last week, one of the compelling reasons Stern had for suspending Arenas in the manner he did is that, if Arenas' contract is voided, it would be up to individual NBA teams, not the league itself, to determine if Arenas will return to the NBA.

Unsurprisingly (or perhaps surprisingly for some of you...), Arenas already has suitors...

The Orlando Magic and New York Knicks are both reportedly interested in Arenas:

Should his contract be voided and he becomes a free agent of course.

Ok, the Knicks, quite honestly, shouldn't surprise anyone. It's a brash city. They're a rebuilding team. Arenas has many of the same qualities on the court as Steve Nash, coach Mike D'Antoni's former quarterback with the Suns, and Arenas would give the team some much needed star power at what one would assume would be a fraction of any other star's price.

Keep in mind, this was the team brazen enough to take on Latrell Sprewell, after Spree's contract was (basically) voided over the infamous PJ Carlisemo choking incident (for those of you who don't know about that, when Sprewell was playing for Golden State, he attacked and choked his then-head coach PJ Carlisemo in practice)

I say "basically voided" because an arbitrator later reversed the clearing of Spree's contract, which led to the Warriors trading him to the Knicks.

The Magic also make sense in a way.

Certainly, Arenas' ability to hit jumpers from nearly anywhere inside the halfcourt line would mesh extremely well with Orlando's kick-and-shoot offensive system. Arenas is also a better shot creator than the Magic's current point guard, Jameer Nelson, and less of a liability on defense (although that's a matter of average versus slightly below average there...)

Orlando has gone with the all-in, spend everything and bet the farm on top of it approach to teambuilding this year. With little money to burn, Arenas would be a steal for them, at least on the court.

Of course, all of this is next year speculation. Arenas won't be back on a court at least until his sentencing at the end of March, and by then, the Wizards' season will be all but over.

And speaking of players whos seasons are over...

Blake Griffin is officially out for the season:

This will be the second time in 3 years that the #1 overall pick in the draft won't play a single minute his first year in the NBA.

Griffin injured his kneecap October 23rd and was projected to be out until about the 20th of this month, but medical tests showed that his knee wasn't healing properly.It was determined that Griffin would need to undergo a second surgery, which will keep him out 4 more months...the duration of the season.

Griffin has had a history of knee problems already (he missed a good portion of his rookie year of college), and the Clippers no doubt are thinking of Greg Oden's season ending injury (likely caused by mistreatment of the same injury Griffin has) as well.

The injury is a big blow to the Clippers' very legitimate playoff hopes (No seriously...). When Griffin's surgery was announced, LAC was just 3 games out of the playoffs.

Unfortunately, Griffin wasn't the only one to have his season shut down this week...

Michael Redd is out for the season:

Redd tore both is ACL and MCL last week, the second time in as many years he has lost a season to an ACL injury.

"I'm shaken. You never expect it to happen and it happened again," he said. "Today has been a very hard day. But I've had incredible encouragement from my teammates. I'll get through it."

"I cried. I had worked so hard to get back to where I was. It hurts. I'll get back to where I was again. As soon as I tried to explode, I heard a pop. I was talking to my wife today about this and I said I wouldn't give up. I hurt and I was devastated by it. But my wife encouraged me."

Injuries have unfortunately dominated what would otherwise be considered a star career for Redd. He is 4th all time among Milwaukee's franchise scoring leaders, behind only Glenn Robinson, Sidney Moncrief, and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar. His 11,510 career points far eclipses Ray Allen's 9,681 in that regard.

The obvious unfortunate news is that this injury could be career ending for Redd. ACL injuries are very damaging and very difficult to recover from, and this is now Redd's second in an 18 month span.

Like the Clippers, the Bucks are very much in the playoff hunt, currently sitting at 9th place in the east.

Unlike the Clippers, the Warriors have no hope of making the playoffs, and that's not all...

Anthony Randolph is out at least two months with an ankle injury:

And just when he was really getting going too...

Randolph tore two minor ligaments in his left ankle and reaggravated a previous sprain. Prior to the injury, he had finally been moved into the starting lineup, averaging 13 points and 7 rebounds in that role.

The injury isn't anywhere near as serious as Redd's but two months will still be almost all of the remaining season.

Ok. It's finally on to trade news.

Tracy McGrady maintains he is 100% healthy and ready to play:

As does his newest trainer, ATTACK Camp fitness guru Tim Grover.

"One-hundred percent ready to go and he's been ready," Grover told The Post from his Chicago athletic compound where he's been working with McGrady since Christmas. "No limitations, no anything."

"Any team who wants to come down to Chicago, to come look at it, I don't pull any punches. Put him through anything they want him to put him through. Whether it's a trade or buyout, he's ready to go."

The Rockets continue to say they will not buy out McGrady, even if they can't work out a trade for him.

Among the teams out there...

The Knicks, Wizards, Bulls, and Sixers all have interest in trading for McGrady:

We should probably just add "Knicks are interested" to every trade rumor out there. It'd save a lot of typing...

Knicks: The Rockets already rejected salary trades for Jared Jeffries and Eddy Curry, but are reportedly willing to talk if the Knicks are willing to make Jordan Hill, Toney Douglas, and/or Wilson Chandler available.

Wizards: Washington is still contemplating blowing up the roster in the wake of the Arenas issue, and McGrady has been linked to them in return for names like Caron Butler and Antawn Jamison. Butler is the younger of the two, which would seemingly make him more ideal with youngsters Aaron Brooks and Trevor Ariza, but Jamison plays a position the Rockets need more help at and would be a great compliment to the post prowess of Yao Ming, or a strong replacement for Yao's scoring if he doesn't return. It would certainly be easier for the Rockets to move Louis Scola to center and bench Chuck Hayes than it would be to decide whether to bench Ariza or Shane Battier.

Bulls: This one's coming out of left field to me, because the report is the main player being exchanged is Joakim Noah, who...by all other reports....is one of two players the Bulls do not want to move (the other being Derrick Rose, obviously). It'd make much more sense for both the Rockets and Bulls to talk Tyrus Thomas and Brad Miller, but the report I read said Noah, so....

Sixers: I reported this last week, but the Sixers and Rockets are still mulling (playing chicken...?) over a proposed McGrady for Andre Iguodala and Samuel Dalembert trade. The Rockets still won't talk unless Iguodala is on the table; the Sixers still aren't willing to do that. The Sixers are, however, considering a firesale if they can't start winning some games soon, so one never knows.

All in all, Rockets general manager says he has seven (7) teams with definite interest in McGrady right now.

Speaking of the Knicks getting rejected, here's another deal that's already been nixed...

The Utah Jazz rejected a Carlos Boozer/Drew Gooden trade:

A smart move, and a clear signal to the rest of the league that it'll take more than cap relief to get Boozer by the deadline.

The Jazz earlier traded Eric Maynor to the Thunder, which brought their total salary down to a level Jazz ownership felt was acceptable to pay, making it much easier for them to hang onto Boozer and thus raising his trade value accordingly.

The Denver Nuggets are "working feverishly" to acquire Jeff Foster from the Pacers:

The Nuggets believe (rightly so) that they need to add another rotation big man to really compete with the Lakers, and Foster seems to be the target. He's not much for scoring, but he's an insane rebounder and solid defender.

The Nuggets however have two rather big problems they'll need to work out to make this happen:

Obstacle No. 1: Foster has one more season left on his contract after this season at nearly $6.7 million and has a 15-percent trade kicker in his contract. The Nuggets are already looking at $5 mil in luxury tax payments and somewhat gutted the team already to get that figure down even that low.

Obstacle No. 2: Unless the Nuggets are willing to part with Ty Lawson (not happening), they'll need to find a third partner to make the trade work, because the Pacers aren't interested in role playing swingmen.

One odd thing I uncovered while doing background research on this (mainly comparing Denver's bigs to LA's). Chris Andersen is statistically more helpful to the Nuggets than either Kenyon Martin or Nene, and not just because he does this:

The Nuggets score more points per 100 possessions with Anderson than any of their other bigs. That's surprising, because who would think a team would score more with Birdman than KMart or the former Hilario?

Ok, I admit I added that point just to have a reason to post that vid. Seriously people...that's one hell of a block.

The Pistons are looking to deal, probably in trades involving Richard Hamilton and/or Tayshaun Prince:

They want to move Hamilton, but it's going to be easier to move Prince.

The Pistons were fairly forced to spend big over the summer (signing Ben Gordon, Charlie Villanueva, and Chris Wilcox) just to field and acceptably competitive team, but with the season looking more and more like a lost cause, the Pistons are looking to try and break even on those signings so the team will have some capital to burn over the summer.

Ben Gordon (and to a lesser extent, Rodney Stuckey) makes Rip completely expendable. Nor does Hamilton fit with a youth program. But Rip's contract runs two more years after this season; Prince's runs only one more, for less money, and he's a younger, more diverse player. The Pistons also have young small forwards Jonas Jerebko, DaJuan Summers, and Austin Daye to man the 3 spot, making Prince somewhat expendable as well.

Next, and this should surprise no one...

The Bulls are (still) looking to trade Tyrus Thomas:

Or, more accurately, Vinny Del Negro is desperate to get rid of Tyrus Thomas. Even with no real leads and Thomas back and outperforming Taj Gibson, the Bulls are determined to trade him by the deadline.

Thomas did not receive and extension off his rookie deal over the summer, but retains his qualifying offer (like Rudy Gay), meaning whatever team acquires him can assure itself of him staying simply by sitting back and matching the first offer he accepts over the summer.

Should the Wolves be in on this? The Bulls are reportedly willing to take on just about anything to deal Thomas. He's young, supremely athletic, a gifted defender (albeit not always a smart one...) and has tons of room to improve in all areas.

I think he develops into a better Kenyon Martin (meaning a non-injured Kenyon Martin) with time and the right coaching staff. And I'd love to add Kenyon Martin to this team. This is one of those rare cases where we could make a big impact trade without paying a big impact price. Or hardly any price at all....

The Miami Heat are looking to...avoid a luxury tax bill:

The likely scenario would involve Miami trading a low-salaried player to a team below the salary cap that could absorb the deal without sending a player back.

From a numbers standpoint, one potential move could involve swingman Dorell Wright, whose $2.9 million salary would essentially wipe out Miami's tax.

With James Jones difficult to move because of the three years remaining on a contract that has a significant guarantee, the Heat also has other low-salaried players at the end of its bench who could be moved. Among that group are Daequan Cook, Carlos Arroyo and Jamaal Magloire.

Another possible deal to get in on for the Wolves. Daequan Cook in particular could really help the shooting woes we constantly struggle with.

Well, that covers the big trade rumors of the week. Next up is news on February's other spectacle: All Star Weekend.

Eric Gordon and DeMar DeRozan will have a dunk-off to determine which will compete in the dunk contest:

A new twist on an old idea; last year the NBA let fans vote in the fourth participant with Rudy Fernandez beating Joe Alexander and Russell Westbrook.

This year the candidates will hold a dunk contest amongst themselves first. DeRozan and Gordon will get two dunks each during halftime of the rookie challenge on Friday, Feb. 12. Votes will be sent in through NBA.com and text messaging, and the winner will move on to the actual dunk contest.

No word yet on who the three participants are who have already claimed a spot, but if I was a betting man, I'd say Shannon Brown is one of them:

And speaking of the dunk contest....

Dwight Howard says neither he or LeBron will be in the dunk contest:

In an interview with FanHouse before Wednesday's game at Denver, Howard was asked if there's any chance he will take part in next month's event in Dallas. Howard said last month he didn't expect to compete.

"I don't think they're going to announce my name (as a participant),'' he said.

When asked about leBron, Howard added, ""Me and him are talking. I don't know if he wants to do it. We do a lot of dunking during the season so those dunk contests take a lot out of you. ... I would love to see him get in one. But I doubt he does. I don't think he's going to do it.''

"I think LeBron understands that the dunk contest is different from dunking in the game. If you're out there in a game, the adrenaline is pumping, the crowd is there and you're dunking for real. In the dunk contest, it's just you."

"So it's a different scenario. I think he's more a game dunker than a dunk-contest dunker. ... Dunk-contest people want to see stuff they've never seen before, and there's not too much that can be done that hasn't been done already.''

LeBron still says he's 50/50, and added he's under a lot of pressure to compete. It's a tricky situation for someone of his ego...on one hand, he doesn't want to end up losing to a Shannon Brown or Eric Gordon. On the other hand, if he's going to really exceed Jordan and Kobe....

For good measure of course, Howard did add, "Every dunk that I've done in a dunk contest, I've been practicing those dunks over three years. So there's a lot of dunks that I haven't even done yet in a dunk contest that people haven't seen. I just decided to keep it to myself. Even last year in a dunk contest, I had a lot of dunks I just decided not to do that I should have done. I would have had two titles."

For the record, I think Dwight's best contest dunk was the one everyone overlooked:

I was much more impressed by that than Superman. The precision and hangtime it takes to do that, especially for a guy who's 6'11", 280 lbs....

Draft Watch:

S-n-P has begun work on a comprehensive draft forum and stat analysis, so this week I'll point you all to the Draft Board #1 2010 topic and let you get this week's fill of draft (hehe...) there.

Next week we'll keep going with coverage of our chosen picks, which I'll continue through the rest of conference play. Depending on how S-n-P wants to manage the Draft Board however, I might eliminate this section starting in March Madness and let all the draft talk happen in his dedicated draft posts.

And finally, the Wolves...

There are no jealousy issues between Al Jefferson and Kevin Love:

I think this was a pretty far-fetched claim for Woj and his "sources" to make in the first place, but just so we're clear, here's what Jerry Zgoda had to say on his Star Tribune blog:

Jefferson called the claim nonsense, but used a no-nonsense word to say so.

"That's (nonsense) to me," he said. "I hate to say that. Kevin is like a son to me in this league. I believe in tough love with him. There ain't no chemistry (issues), no jealousy, ain't nothing like that going on between me and him. I don't know where that came from or who made it up. That's just (nonsense.)"

While he talked to reporters after the team's shootaround in Denver, Love came over to where Jefferson was seated, fell on him and embraced him with a big, heavy hug.

Later, as Jefferson continued to speak, Love stood 70 feet away and with a smile yelled out that he was "jealous" all the media members were talking to Jefferson rather than to him.

"I just thought it was funny," Love said. "Al and I haven't had any problems since I got here. It's kind of laughable to me. He has been helping me out all along. I took my biggest steps last year because of him, this summer because of him. He walked in this morning and we were laughing about it. It's one of those things speculation and rumor. There's no jealousy going on here."

Kahn has said he will use this entire season to evaluate such issues with the team. Coach Kurt Rambis refused to comment on the Yahoo! Sports report because he said it's team policy not to talk about rumors.

Asked if trade rumors might swirl always as long as the two are together, Love said, "I don't know. That's why I get paid to play. I don't get paid to make decisions. I don't really take them (trade rumors) seriously. I heard I was getting traded in the summer. I heard everybody was getting traded in the summer. We'll see what happens before the trade deadline.

"I don't think Al's going anywhere. I don't think I'm going anywhere."

As Love talked to reporters, Jefferson walked by toward the team bus and yelled out to Love that he loved him.

"Love you, too, man," Love yelled back.

And last but not least...

A couple of Ricky Rubio videos:

I was searching for mixtapes of his recent games with his new team, and found a pretty sweet short documentary on his life. It's a great watch, with some strong insight into how he became so good so young:

And of course, I still found a great video of him with his new team, Regal FC Barcelona:

For more Rubio coverage, check out Wyn's Regal FC Barcelona vs. Montepaschi Siena Gamethread and Cap'n'Hack's Postgame Rubio Thoughts post. Good stuff.

Perhaps this will start to really scare teams away from drafting big men first.

Certainly it won't be a center getting called up #1 by Stern this year.With any luck, the decision about who goes at that spot will be ours. In the meantime, there's still half a season to play yet, and there's going to be a lot of player movement in the next month, so stay sharp and read up.

Until next week....