Warts and all
by Stop-n-Pop on Jan 23, 2010 3:47 AM CST
Email
PrintFrom the comments of last night's game thread:
Seconds later Mr. Brewer would turn the ball over on an attempted pick and roll where the Hornets doubled Brewer away from Big Al (surprise). Shortly after that Brewer would make up for this error with a sensational hustle block on a Darren Collison layup. He would follow this up with a defensive brain fart on the last play of the game: leaving James Posey (the man with the ball) to double the decoy...in this case, Chris Paul...leaving a wide open lane to the rim with no big man in the way to disrupt the winning shot.
It's not often we here at Hoopus give a shout out to an opposing team's assistant coach, but hats off to Hornets assistant Tim Floyd. This is the second time this season the Hornets have burned the Wolves on a last second Floyd-designed in bounds play. The first time around Jonny Flynn made a rookie mistake allowing Chris Paul an open look on a backdoor cut with time running down. This time around the Hornets gave the Wovles a similar look but instead of handing the ball back to Paul, they deeked the Wolves into jumping early into a double team that left Posey with a clear path to the bucket. It was a brilliant play and some top-notch coaching. It, along with the double-team decision, was also an example of in-game adjustments made by the bad guys.
Speaking of coaching, last night's tilt featured yet another set of baffling rotations from Head Puppy Kurt Rambis. Here at Hoopus we have gone on and on and on and on about the need for the Wolves to run out a rotation with, at the very least, Kevin Love or Al Jefferson on the court. These two gents are the team's best players by a country mile and the last time I checked (Jan 9) the Love/Jefferson 4/5 duo was a mere -1.6 points/100 possessions in over 450 minutes of action on a team with the 2nd worst point differential in the league (considering both players are dealing with having to come off of an injury, this is a pretty mind-blowing stat). Short of illness or broken bones, there are very few reasons why one of these guys shouldn't be on the court at all times (to say nothing of trying to make sure Ryan Gomes sees as much time next to them as possible...although this kills the bench; perhaps we should simply chalk this up to the overall personnel deficiency on the roster...perhaps I should move on).
Against the Hornets, Love and Jefferson played a combined total of 56:29 out of 96 available minutes at the 4 and 5. The pair averages 65.2 mpg. Where did these missing 9 minutes go? Brian Cardinal (12:08) and Ryan Hollins (14:53). These minutes included a nearly 5 minute stretch at the end of the 3rd quarter with neither Love nor Jefferson in the game. The Wolves were lucky to walk away with only a -3 during this stint. There was another 2 minute no Love/Jefferson stretch in the heart of the 4th quarter (-1). This is in addition to the 7+ minutes Brian Cardinal took from Love down the stretch in the 4th. Love and Jefferson were a combined +11 in their 56+ minutes last night to include a +1 in shared stints.
Did you notice that Ryan Gomes didn't see the court in the 4th and went scoreless for the game? Really? He couldn't have been stuck on Peja?
Seeing that this is a young and rebuilding team my hope is that the coaching staff is doing what they are doing with the rotations with some very specific long term goals in mind. They have to be, right? If they aren't, or if they aren't leveling some accountability and/or discipline with their weird rotational decisions (which didn't begin tonight), then I'm a bit more worried, as there are some bone-headed things going on that you can see with your naked eye...never mind armed with an excel spread sheet and some spare time.
This was yet another game where the Wolves played well, showed some solid improvement (especially on the defensive end...ignoring the last possession), ran some very nice 1/2 court sets with the triangle, and were in it from the start to finish. A few more games like this and I think they will be at the point where casual fans can see broad improvement. They won't run off a winning month like they did last January but this year's squad seems to be much improved over last year's January collection of a hot-shooting Randy Foye and a bad schedule. At the end of the month we'll look into the two Januarys and see if this hypothesis holds true.
In terms of the Four Factors, this was a pretty simple example of how a game can be lost at the free throw line:
| Pace | Eff | eFG | FT/FG | OREB% | TOr | |
| New Orleans | 90.0 | 106.7 | 46.6% | 38.4 | 23.8 | 13.3 |
| Minnesota | 104.4 | 50.0% | 17.5 | 31.4 | 21.1 |
The Wolves were 14-16 from the line while the Hornets were 28-34. Game, set, and match. This included 9 FTA from my 2nd Least Favorite Player David West (including 5 FTAs in just over 2 minutes in the 2nd). Former Wolf-for-a-Moment Darius Songaila took up West's efforts at the 4, getting 7 FTAs of his own. Maybe this has a little bit to do with all of the Love/Jefferson bench sitting. Still...it's tough to watch a team lose by 2 points when its 2 best players spent a lot of time on the bench.
Well folks, that about does it for this 3:38 AM edition of the Hoopus game wrap. Baby is now back to sleep and it's time for yours truly to catch some shut eye.
Until later.
One last thing about Brewer: He's still a warts-and-all type of player and it should not be forgotten that last night's game was only his 86th start. We've started to see some of the flashes of what made him effective at Florida and I think the hope with Brew is that he matures as a similar player in the NBA: the type of guy who will never be your best player but whose talents will rise and fall with the talent level surrounding him. He's a blast to watch and he, along with Love, are the types of players that you want to watch for a full game...and not just the last 5 minutes.
125 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
I have a theory on the rotations, maybe someone that has been to a game can prove it.
Rambis keeps a bingo tumbler next to him during the games. Instead of the normal bingo numbers, it contains wooden balls with the players’ numbers on them. He takes out the starting fives’ numbers. When he feels a change in lineup is needed, he spins the tumbler a couple times and selects the number of balls he needs. He then puts the numbers of the players taken out back into the tumbler.
B-1 = Hollins in the game. I-19 = Bingo, Ellington goes in. I just wish he would include the I-29 ball so Tucker has a chance to see the court.
I think you're on to something
although the balls that are determining these rotations aren’t actually being drawn until later this year . . .
My prediction...
Is kind of like Kevin McHale was obsessed with building a winning team around his dopple-ganger (Big Al), Kurt Rambis wanted to try his hand with the person that most resembled him (Brian Cardinal).
I’m kind of getting annoyed with Rambis, it’s not that bad yet because I’m still comparing him to Wittman and McHale (who I hated as a coach), but I could imagine my annoyance growing ten fold as his 4 year contract progresses.
Tough loss to take
This was a tough one because we are seeing some great improvement from the individual piece parts – Jefferson, Love, Brewer, and even Flynn to a degree – but we can’t seem to win the close ones. As mentioned in the game recap, Rambis had us playing with one (or two) arms behind our back, sitting Love and Jefferson for inexplicably long stretches.
A message for Ryan Gomes: When your shot isn’t falling, do something – anything – to help your team in other ways. I hardly noticed that you were even playing!
Agreed
I don’t think coaches really matter that much in terms of improving your teams chances of winning (at least in the pro-game), but I think they can definitely do a lot to hurt the team in each game. I would say he wasn’t playing Love because of his recovery from an illness, but this had started long before Love got sick.
Yes, and the illness excuse is B.S.
I haven’t looked at the gameflow, but Love had plenty of rest in the 4th and showed plenty of spunk in his prior 23 minutes. I’m sure he could have easily played the last 5 minutes of the game for a total of 28 whopping minutes. Your point is well taken about this being an issue prior to his illness. Rambis has been jerking Kevin around for a while now and I think he’s starting to cross the line. You can only do this so much with your best player.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 23, 2010 8:41 AM CST up reply actions
Completely Agree on the Rambis - Love issue
Our offense is 100% different when the ball runs through Love. It was inexplicable why Love was not on the floor in the last three minutes. I had more to drink at the game last night than normal, but I seem to recall a lot of broken possession down the stretch, with some Brewer shots in between, and maybe a few Flynn plays.
There is an issue here we are not privy to
It is obvious based on playing time and Kahn’s recent statements that he still considers Love to be a #4 on a contender.
I think it was just that Love was coming off an illness that left him an invalid in bed...
….and that Love wasn’t very productive in the third while the Hornets went on that big run. And maybe a matchup concern with the bugs going small.
I wouldn’t read too much into it. Lots of “other” factors there. Like S-n-P said, the overwhelming issue there is why Rambis pulls Love and Jefferson at the same time.
You don't find it odd
that as well as Love has played since returning that Kahn is still referring to him as a #4?? Seems like half the people on this site have Love as a better player than Jefferson, but Kahn still refers to AL as a #2 and Love as a #4.
Maybe he is just
more realistic and has better methods of and opportunities for talent evaluation. Or maybe he just doesn’t want to admit he might have been mistaken!
Jefferson's Defense
This week was the best I’ve seen this season. We matched up well inside during all three home games this week.
That comparison between the two Januaries:
Count me in as a subscriber to that one, please. It’ll make a nice lens through which to view all the changes in the roster and the regime.
(N’Awlins was one of the wins that month, yes? They were injury-depleted, but it was one of the nicer Ws at the time.)
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
I am doing some changes...
….to the main page side bar with Hoopus Features. I put up a post about last year’s January.
Main takeaway:
In January they won against the 10 win GSW without Maggette and Ellis. They beat the 14-20 Bulls, 11 win Griz, 5 win Thunder (Krstic’s 1st game and pre-Thabo), 9 win Clips with no Camby, Davis, or Kaman, NOLA without West or Chandler, the 18 win Bucks w a hurt Sessions and Bogut, a 22 win Bucks team w/o Redd and Bogut, an 18 win Bulls squad, and the 22-15 Suns straight up.
In the 20 game stretch between games 20-40, which goes from pretty much the end of Witt (19) and almost to the end of the Jan streak (1-20-09), the Wolves showed fair improvement in OE, eFG, defG, FT Diff, pts for, and pt diff. They also played at a higher pace in January than they did in the preceding month. Despite these gains, only OReb% was in the top 1/3 of league rankings. Almost all of their other indicators landed them in the bottom 1/3 of the league; hardly above last season’s rankings and even behind them in a few (eFG being one big one). It was hardly the Big Bang of a reborn franchise. It was nice to watch and really, really fun to see, but this team has exactly 1 month with more than 3 wins this season.
I think your argument also [understates] the dip that the team took against serious competition beginning with Detroit on the 28th. In the 6 games before Jefferson got hurt, the Wolves went 1-5 with the lone win against a 19 win Pacer club. They were taken apart by LA, Boston, Atlanta, and Houston during this stretch. Granted, 3 of those teams are upper-level squads but it was their first real competition in a month and they reverted to what their averages would suggest…they just weren’t doing it against dinged up bottom dwellers.
Throwing out January, McHale is 6-35. Throwing out the 3-18 record since Big Al was hurt along with January and he’s 3-16. The team played March like they did December, going back to roughly 94 ppg, 80 fga/game, etc. The Wolves do have bad luck (injuries) but it is almost always accompanied by outright boobery, mismanagement, and the overvaluing of assets
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
btw...
…how crazy is it that the thunder had 5 wins last year at this time?
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
in hindsight
I don’t ever recall hearing the phrase “the worst team of all time” mentioned at any point describing the Thunder. I could be wrong, but it seems odd when comparing that team’s record to the wolves considering all of the injuries we had (or at least players recovering from injuries). Chalk one up to media sensationalism?
by TheEvilProfessor on Jan 23, 2010 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
I don’t think we’ve gotten any “worst team of all time” comments since we won a few and our point differential got a little more easy on the eyes. But yeah, I think it was media sensationalism. The Nets on the other hand, they might actually have a shot at this thing, which blows my mind.
Its hard to believe with the Nets
I would never have pegged them as this bad. usually, a team with two players as good as Lopez and Harris will win some games.
Their problem is that Harris is just having a terrible, nightmare season. I really don’t think he’s this bad, but it’s been a disaster for him. In a wider sense, the Nets have 7 players who have attempted 200+ shots; 4 of them are under 40%. They aren’t a good team, but at some level, that’s some colossal bad luck.
For comparison sake, our Wolves, whose shooting we complain about jutifiably, have 8 guys with 200+ attempts, and none of them are under 40%.
by Eric in Madison on Jan 23, 2010 10:46 AM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I didn’t think they’d be in the playoffs, which in the East is really saying something. But I never would’ve believed they’d be looking at heading into February with 3 wins. That’s unbelievable, even with Harris playing badly. Their best two players are at the the point and center, and they have talent in between with CDR, Lee, Yi. But they were threatening to not break 40 against Golden State in the first half last night.
I honestly don’t think their bad record last year or where they are now is surprising. I was daydreaming last night about a scenario where they drafted Tyreke Evans instead of James Harden. I like Harden fine, but Evans has shown he can play the 2. Can you imagine how insane that team would be in a couple years?
I think Harden is just perfect for the OKC though. He's an excellent role-player type.
Which is exactly what you need when you’ve got an almost-superstar like Durant. Evans, whom also is in a similar mold wouldn’t work well with Durant whom puts up a ton of shots.
Not sure you can say that, though. Evans played pretty well off the ball last game against us. He’s a capable cutter, and once he receives the ball he’s strong enough and talented enough to do something with it. The theory of diminishing returns on ball-dominant players may be true if you’re talking about really selfish players like Iverson or early Jamal Crawford, but both Durant and Evans seem dangerous enough off the ball to be pretty killer next to each other. Harden’s shooting and passing make him a good fit too, but I bet they take Evans without a second thought if the draft is redone today.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I think either would have fit fine with the Thunder
They took Harden (IIRC) because he’s a more polished player….Evans was a one year college athlete….and because, like Rubio, Russell Westbrook threw a fit about the team drafting a point guard.
Evans would have added more of a physical, slashing element to their offense that they lack right now, but Harden is a better shooter, which helps balance out Westbrook’s 40% FG rate much more than Evans would have.
But either would have been ok in the end.
S&P - I have a hypothesis that the wolves "turned a corner" in late december of 2008 - the went 13 wins and 10 losses from 12/28/08 to when Jefferson was hurt.
I’m NOT saying that the wolves became a playoff team or a good team. But they did go from being awful to mediocre. The teams they were beating were “non-playoff” teams. But if you beat “non-playoff” teams for a full year you are winning roughly half your games.
We won 4 game before 12/28/08/. We won the 13 out of 23 [before Al’s injury] and we won 7 out of the last 30. It should be noted that 15 of the last 30 games were against “non-playoff” teams.
Before Al was hurt, Hollinger was projecting the wolves could win around 32 games. Almost all of that in the 2nd half.
Win shares for last years team was 28. [Which tells me their 24 wins under represented their performance.] That includes a win share of 5 from AL. If AL played 30 more games his win share would have been about 8. So the teams total win share would have been about 31. [And don’t forget we also didn’t have brewer after early December.]
I’m not very familar with the “four factors”. Is there anything in those stats that would contradict my hypothesis above?
The hypothesis being that last years Wolves team in the 2nd half of the season was rounghly a five hundred team?
[Note: One other piece of evidence I want to share will be posted directly below in another posting. ]
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 23, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions
oops, didn't state that very artfully, the hypothesis being that last years Wolves team in the 2nd half of the season "Would have been" a rounghly a five hundred team, if Jefferson wasn't injured ?
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 23, 2010 2:25 PM CST up reply actions
Dude, you have to drop this
Since you’ve posted it about 50 times. We get it, they had gone good stretch of basketball last January, surrounded by completely abysmal stretches of basketball, with and without Jefferson.
As SnP points out, that team feasted on weak competition thanks to a healthy AJ and a red-hot Foye. Foye has not played nearly that well or that consistently before or since and as soon as they played tougher competition (and those teams adjusted to McHale’s scrapping of whatever crappy offensive philosophy Wit used), it was game over.
That team was nowhere near Memphis, LAC, OKC, HOU, or any of the other around .500 teams there are in the western conference this year. They just aren’t. Thinking they could have been a .500 team is a pipe dream unless they got to play a Redd and Bogut-less bucks team once a week, instead of twice in a month like last year.
I wasn't saying they are .500 this season. I said they were playing .500 ball LAST SEASON. Before they gave away their 3rd, 4th and 5th best players with nothing to show for it on the court this season.
Last season, when we had Miller, Foye and Smith etc we were playing .500.
That doesn’t imply that we would be as good this year after trading afore mentioned 3rd, 4th and 5th best players, with nothing to show for it on the court this year.
Check out Foye’s game log when he has played minutes:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/players/4135/gamelog;_ylt=AqELSBwl8CFXOFdZMRhyTmlZPaB4
By the way, I’m not saying that Kahn made the wrong decision to trade Foye and Miller for Rubio. Or trading others like Smith for cap space.
I think last years team had a “cap” of maybe the first or 2nd round of the playoffs [If we kept people and added a top free agent or did a “salary cap receiving” trade as we are still planning this summer. So to win a championship we needed to trade Foye, Miller etc.
But that doesn’t mean that lasts years team wouldn’t have finished the season with say, 32-33 wins if Jefferson had remained healthy or this years team with the addition Brewer, and Flynn wouldn’t have won, say 40 or so games.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 23, 2010 6:52 PM CST up reply actions
Check out...
….the January post in the Hoopus Features sidebar.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
As much as I'd love to give credit to Tim Floyd
because I grew up in Iowa and loved his Cyclone teams in the mid 90’s, how the hell do you give up 2 game winning lay ups? That should not happen. Foul the bastard if you have to. Not complicated.
I really think Rambis is trying to lose games. He chalks it up to “learning.” I am okay with this, because the prize at the end of the tunnel is so great. Imagine Rubio, Turner, and Gay starting and Brewer and good 3 point shooter backing them up. It will be glorious.
I really think we are going to have to give up something of value to get Gay, so we can have his Bird’s rights and I would do a Jonny Flynn for Rudy Gay deal. I think Gay has ridiculous potential and working with this Rambis and Co will turn him into a superstar.
what is always a little bit frustrating...
is that the Wolves have these very-young, very-inexperienced teams that should be picking in the Top 2 of the draft. Yet, veteran teams with terrible attitudes tank away 75+ percent of their seasons and finish just as bad or worse than us. Miami did it in ‘08 and Washington did it last year (though they were generous enough to give us their pick.) This year, New Jersey is playing WAY below their potential, as is Washington, Golden State and Philadelphia. I’m not sure if Rambis is tanking. And if he is, I don’t agree with it. I’d rather see Flynn-Love-Jefferson figure out ways to win together in games like last night’s. But, if he is trying to prevent some wins, I can’t say it’s completely reprehensible. It’s a weird game of chess that’s played between the league’s worst teams. The Wolves don’t want to end up picking 5th or 6th again, when we are without a doubt one of the two least-talented teams (at present) in the league. By most accounts, the drop off after John Wall is pretty enormous. And after Evan Turner, it might be pretty big, too. As usual, it’s a crucial draft for the Wolves that will go a long way in shaping our future.
I don't look at as tanking
They said going into the year that W-L wasn’t going to be considered important, that figuring out what we have and the players learning would be. And that’s what’s happening. Not that I agree with the rotations last night.
In the fourth quarter...
Flynn came in at 9:32 and instantly made a bad pass then followed it up with a couple more bad plays. Rambis yanked him at 8:04 and he didn’t see the court again until there were 7 seconds left and they needed a steal or quick foul. Not sure if that falls under teaching or trying to win, probably both. Rambis also said that the bigs were battling and getting good position most of the game but weren’t getting the ball; probably another reason for the quick hook. Sessions played very well.
I don’t understand what is going on with Love either but in his post game interview, you could just hear the frustration in his voice even though he was trying to hide it.
I think the “we’re not going to worry about W-L this year” can be used as a cover for tanking. We’ll play our best guys and give our best effort against Boston, LA and Orlando. But when New Orleans comes to town and David West sprains his ankle, we’ll counter by benching our two best players. The coaching staff and front office are very-much aware that once you cross 20-wins or so, you put yourself at risk for slipping down the draft lottery. I’m sure Rambis would love to coach John Wall or Evan Turner and the odds of that happening go down if we start winning games now.
At first I thought this notion that we’re tanking games was crazy, and it might be wrong. But after watching the rotations last night, I’m not totally setting it aside as unrealistic. I think we win that game if Love-Jefferson play the final 6 minutes together.
Great point Andy. At this point, you just have to hope karma, or whatever you want to call it, exists. The Wolves get shat on so repeatedly by lady luck that at some point it has to stop, right?
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Out of curiosity...
Who is your least favorite player Stop-n-Pop?
Glen Davis
I hope he gets run over by a truck.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Unless it is a really big truck...
I think the truck would get the worst of it.
Actually, have you seen the Fantastic Four movie?
There is a part on a bridge where a suicidal guy falls into the street and the Thing drops down and stops a truck dead in its tracks before it crushes the guy. I think that is what happens to the truck in the Glen Davis case.
Well, I'll mention Flynn
I’ve about had it with 1 assist games. How hard can it be for a PG who has his hands on the ball way more then the offense actually calls for to get 2 assists. And I don’t want to hear about sucky teammates. It did not stop most of his teammates from out assisting him. Yes, if your assists depend on Brewer hitting the corner three off your drive, then it is pretty much out of your hands. But how about setting teammates up for easy shots? Has anyone seen Flynn make the type of play Ellington did to set up Jefferson? Yes, Flynn is a rookie (like Ellington) and he can learn, but he’s been playing the point his whole life. Takes 13 shots (and shot very well I will say) but gets one assist.
I'd argue...
…that he’s been playing Alpha Dog his whole life and that his AAU and high school coaches knew that he was more valuable scoring than he was running anything.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Kahn might have also known that...
when he drafted him and said he could play with Rubio – a pure passer.
Flynn’s lack of playmaking would be less-noticeable if we had a playmaking wing. Not every team has or even wants a point guard who dribbles a lot. Some have them dribble it up, pass to the wing, and position themselves to score. Some notable examples were teams that run/ran the triangle offense.
Good point...
… Evan Turner would be perfect to play the Pippen role in the triangle to Flynn’s BJ Armstrong. I’m not convinced Turner’s value would be maximized once Rubio gets here since Turner will be best with the ball in his hands, initiating the offense (like Roy in Portland) and Rubio will negate that strength (I’m assuming Rubio will always bring the ball up the court & initiate the offense since there’s little point in having him otherwise), but I still like Turner as the number two pick. He’d be a very nice consolation prize in the John Wall Sweepstakes.
actually
Rubio doesn’t need the ball in his hands in the half court. He usually brings the ball up the court so he can take advantage of outlet type passes, but only holds the ball for a couple seconds at the top of the key and then passes it off and starts moving off the ball.
by TheEvilProfessor on Jan 23, 2010 2:59 PM CST up reply actions
Yes
as the Prof says, Rubio does not overdribble. He gets rid of the ball right away. Very decisive. His teams either gets fast break points or immediately initiates its offense once they are in the half-court. After watching Flynn dribble at the top of the key its quite a sight to see.
Like Jason Kidd
One of the TNT analysts (McHale…?) made an interesting comment about the difference between Chris Paul and Jason Kidd, saying Paul facilitates by dominating the ball because he has it in his hands 90% of the time, while Kidd facilitates by “going with the offense”.
If you watch the Mavs, Kidd rarely dribbles for more than 5 or 6 seconds of the shot clock. He brings it up the floor, calls a play, gets rid of it, then picks up his numbers by being the last player in the “hockey assist”, where the ball swings to him and he immediately gets it to an open shooter.
Rubio is very similar to Kidd in that regard.
Hm. He’s big, he’s strong, he can finish near the hoop and handle the ball. Yes, he CAN dominate the ball and make plays with the ball in his hand, but he’s perfectly capable of cutting to the hoop and knocking down catch and shoot ops. At some point and with certain players, in this case guys who are effective with and without the ball, this type of versatility becomes a bonus, not a detriment to the team.
I think Turner would work in just about any system. Want him to go 1 on 1 and make plays? He can do it. But he’ll also get out on the break, cut to the hoop, post up etc. The guy’s a swiss army knife, and I don’t think his usefulness will be diminished playing next to a passer like Rubio. Absolutely 100% hope he ends up here.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
AAU is terrible
I definitely agree with McHale that AAU ball is one of the worst things to happen to basketball
Umm, the past two games he has had 8 and 9 asists respectively
He will learn to pass as he gets older, plus he had many passes that lead to asists for other players and he also had many passes that would have been asists but players missed easy shots, Flynn is going to be fine, stop bringing the guy down so much and try focusung on what he does good, he gave us a chance to win the game, he was arguably our best player in this game. BTW, Evan Turner would fit perfectly into the triangle offense it think, he is a lot like Kobe in that regard (I am not say he is the next Kobe, am just saying both of their playing styles are similar) I actually would be happier with Turner than Wall, because i don’t think we need another Point, no need to get greedy, we would be better off by just drafting Evan Turner and a big, maybe Cole Aldrich, and signing maybe a rudy gay in free agency. That would my dream offseason, perfect
I was watching what Paul did versus what Flynn did last night to see if there's a tangible difference in their mentality...
…and I realized that we’re a terrible pick and roll team. 90% of Paul’s assists come off of fast breaks, drive-and-kicks, or pick and rolls with his big men (usually West).
Fast breaks we can kind of do. Drive and kicks we can’t because we’re terrible shooters, so that source of assists is mostly shut off for Flynn. And pick and rolls….
Well, Al isn’t a rolling big, I think we can all see that. And as a couple people noted in the game thread last night, Love has developed a habit of doing a “Jonny Stop” when he catches the ball, coming to a complete halt and holding it while looking over the floor. Even when he gets it right under the hoop, he’ll pause to see if anyone is close enough to block his shots.
So as much as Flynn has struggled to create plays this season, I’d say it’s equally on the rest of the team for not completing them.
What about my anti-Kevin Love double double theory?
Sits the 4th stuck on 14 and 9. Coincidence?
I noticed that!
definitely not a coincidence.
I still think this theory is mainly funny, but it actually would not surprise me if Rambis was/is trying to critique Love’s motivation of collecting double-doubles.
That has been running through my head constantly.
I thought I was the only paranoid one.
Probably not
But I bet you could find millions of people who have lost massive amounts of money who regret ever walking into a casino.
Not that I won’t be extremely happy if we end up in the top 2 in the draft.
Love the headline of this post...
… re: Brewer: he plays the right way, improves by the game, works incredibly hard, and puts the team & winning ahead of himself. His value will definitely rise when/if Kahn puts better talent on the team, and I don’t think it’s inconceivable that one day he’ll be recognized nationally as a Battier/ Bowen/Rodman kind of difference-maker, but only if we become an upper-level team. It’s no coincidence that he thrived in that role at Florida and was voted MVP of the Final Four during their championship run.
It's easy to forget...
that he’s also coming off ACL reconstruction. He’s moving around well, but I doubt he’s 100 percent, at this point. So the combination of surrounding him with more talent and recovering all the way from the knee could be big for him.
But his jumper is the most important thing. It’s not easy to win when you’re playing 4 against 5. That has always been Brew’s liability.
Brewer's movement without the ball...
… has mitigated some of the concerns about his shooting. (At least to my mind.) Due to his relentless energy and smarts, he usually gets open around the basket at least once or twice per game for easy buckets (which he’s getting better at cashing in). The problem with other bad shooters we’ve had—Telfair is the obvious example—was that they couldn’t provide offense in the paint to compensate for their bad jumpers. Bassy was such a bad finisher, and so small, that he couldn’t convert anything around the hoop. His lack of jump shooting consequently made him a total offensive liability. Brew’s jumper could remain weak his entire career, but his length and movement without the ball should guarantee that he’ll never hamstring us on offense like Bassy did.
Btw...
… I fully agree with your point about his ACL reconstruction. That needs to be kept-in-mind as we consider his (and Jefferson’s) “progress” this season. Even though Brewer’s injury happened before Jefferson’s, I’m amazed that Brewer looks like he was never hurt (if anything, I think Brewer looks more athletic and coordinated than before) while Jefferson has looked frail, weak, and gimpy for most of the season. I have no reason to question Jefferson’s rehab regimin, and it’s possible Jefferson’s injury was more severe, but you can see how much variation there is in how injuries affect players. I’m encouraged that Al is now starting to look like his old self on offense and is looking even better than before on defense and at passing, but Al still looks like he’s playing at about 80% of where he was pre-injury while Corey looks like he’s playing at about 115% of where he was pre-injury.
Except...
I’m not convinced that Brewer is quite back to his old level of ripping the ball out of scrums, and intercepting passes. In his rookie year, he was incredible at that. He’s good at it now, but I think his knee might be limiting him a little bit. He was really a unique type of disruptive force on defense, back then, and I think/hope he’ll return all the way to that form.
I think he's just as good at those things now...
…the difference is that he looks more controlled when he does them so they’re not as noticeably freakish. Maybe I’m wrong. Is there an advanced stat that picks up something like “share of successful intercepts conditional on the share of attempted intercepts of all those passes that are made to the man whom the defender is guarding”? That would tell us something about a player’s propensity to gamble for steals * and * his actual effectiveness at gambling. I suspect Brewer would have a fairly impressive success rate for a guy who spends a lot of time in the passing lanes.
Jefferson by month - he's getting better!
Nov 16.6 pts 7.8 reb 47% shooting
Dec 18.7 pts 10.3 reb 50% shooting
Jan 21.5 pts 11.5 reb 52% shooting
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 23, 2010 2:20 PM CST up reply actions
Case in point: he hasn’t thrown up any of those crazy 14 rebound games I seem to remember from his rookie season. I wonder what’s going on there..
Still, his quickness and springiness seems better than ever. If he’s not even fully back to 100%, things are looking good!
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
he had 26 rebounds and broke the team record this month!
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 23, 2010 6:56 PM CST up reply actions
I’m confused as to how that would have made any sense as a comment about Al.
Yes, we are indeed talking about Brew :)
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
He had a 13 rebound game our first loss against Denver
Mostly garbage minutes, of course
That’s the only time he’s topped 10 this season
can i ask an off topic question?
i was looking at 82games and it said 62% of jeffersons shots are far enough from the hoop to be considered jumpers. why would he play like this? hes not a strong shooter. he finishes really well on close shots. does this all seem accurate to you?
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
That deadly little jump-hook push shot of his
really has a lot of range to it. And fairly often, he’ll shoot it from almost at the elbow. I would guess that those are qualifying as “jumpers.”
The offense (which I think stinks)
is set up for off the paint catches by AL. It’s all elbow and pinch post entry passes, not low box paint catches. The triangle is more of a wing drive/jumpshooting offense, low paint touches are few, unless you modify it like Phil did for Shaq.
Yup. He’s definitely been catching it farther out this year than if left to his own devices. He’s getting good at kicking it out and reposting lower down if he doesn’t like his position, though. That’s a staple of Duncan’s game and something I really like to see.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I'm watching Ohio State on the road against West Virginia
It’s halftime, and OSU is up 12.
Evan Turner is a truly gifted basketball player. He’s 13/6/3 at halftime, and it’s just a treat to watch him. Smooth like butter. Never rushes, but gets where he wants to go.
He’s so good at making the simple play. The right pass, getting in the right place. He’s able to create space for himself with simple moves. He has a sweet midrange game. He accelerates in a way that doesn’t make you think he’s going fast, but beats everyone to the rack. The ball is in his hands all the time.
by Eric in Madison on Jan 23, 2010 2:00 PM CST reply actions
Agreed...
…Turner looked great in the first half. I’d definitely take him second (over Favors) even if we didn’t already have two players at Favors’ position.
I would take Evans even before Wall
I don’t know, i am just a huge fan of Evans, love the guys game, i think he could be the next KG of Minnesota, i might be wrong, but that’s how good i think this guy can be for us, especially in the triangle, which is designed for Superstar SG’s to show their stuff (KObe, Jordan, need i say more?) Agian, if we can get him and Trade Jeffereson to Memphis for maybe Rudy Gay and their first round pick, we could draft Cole Aldrich as well. Then in a couple of years when we get Rubio…
PG-Rubio, Jonny Flynn-Sxth man of the year, every year
SG- Evan Turner, CoreyBrewer
SF-Rudy Gay, Ryan Gomes
PF-Kevin Love, Pekovic
C-Aldrich, Hollins
Still some holes but definetly a playoff team and one that could make it to the second round
Yes
It’s becoming pretty clear that Wall is #1 and nobody — even New Orleans or Utah — will pass on him. It’s hard to compare him to others — he has some Derrick Rose, some Allen Iverson and even some Chris Paul in his game. He’s the kind of guy that you can draft, and then literally start building your franchise around his talents. I would not put Turner in that category, even though he seems like a star in the making. His upside is probably Brandon Roy or Paul Pierce (very high) and his floor is probably Jalen Rose (still pretty high). I just hope we get a Top-2 pick or in the alternative, the teams ahead of us take guys like Favors and Davis so we can get Turner if we don’t win the lotto.
I am not saying that wall isn't all that
I think wall can be that and maybe more, but fthe way i see it, i think Evans can be a Kobe like player as well, they both have huge upside but i don’t think we should get greedy by drafting another young point gaurd especially since we have Flynn, Sessions and possibly the next Pete Maravich in Spain, i wouldn’t be killing my self if we drafted Wall, but it might set us back a year in growth, and honestly i think we have seen enough rebuilding, and I think if we plug up our holes by drafting Evans, we can get to the Playoffs and possibly the Finals sooner then if we draft another point, then we have to wait so we can refill all our holes, i’m sorry, i might be impatient, but i think the Evans has the skills to be just as good as Wall, if not better, we have to keep in mind that Evans was out a whole month while Wall was showcasing all his “awesomeness” and Evans couldn’t.
Oh i am sorry, i was talking to my friends about Tyreke Evans
, i got coonfused, my bad
yeap
it looks like we are going to have to draft evan turner. i doubt nets will pass on wall.
The only team I could see passing on Wall is...
…the Utah Jazz. Because they already have a top 5 point guard and badly need wing help (and to a lesser extent, post help).
But keep in mind, very rarely does the worst team by record actually land the #1 pick in the lottery.
Just watched the game .. man another though loss.
With every game I watch I get more and more confident we’ll make a big leap next year. We just are relying way too much on our two big men.
Also starting to get more and more curious about how Pecherov will do. I
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
I reject the "warts and all"
categorization for Brewer. That’s what you use for a guy like Love. Love is never gonna have the athleticism you want. He’s not gonna match up with every opposing 4. Won’t be a shot blocker. Those are warts. You look past them, well most of you do, because you can hang your hat on the obviously positive impact he has on the team.
Brewer has a legacy of absolutely horrible offensive production. Bottom of the league stuff. Stuff that looks more like syphilitic lesions than warts. Lately, his sporadic offensive output, when on, really resembles the minimum job requirements for an NBA wing. Can you then accept that? Well, the reason I can’t is that I have nothing that suggests to me that he has a net positive impact on the team. It’s great to have his energy, and he seems like a good guy. But the team is wing production away from winning games, and that’s the bottom line.
Now that's a great Canis tagline
“The franchise with syphilitic lesions”
by Eric in Madison on Jan 23, 2010 5:43 PM CST up reply actions
His offense historically has been bad...
…but right now it’s solid. So I don’t think saying it’s borderline unacceptable is fair.
1) We’re better per 100 possessions with Brewer than without Brewer
2) His scoring and shooting percentages have steadily increased all year. He’s averaging 14.6ppg on 45% shooting (44% from three) in January
3) His 12.8 ppg is tied with Richard Jefferson and Manu Ginobili among swingmen, is barely behind Jeff Green and Kalenna Azubuike, and is actually more than Shawn Marion, Grant Hill, and Al Thornton average
He also ranks 24th in the league in steals/game, 11th among guards in blocks/game, and has more than doubled his scoring average in less than 10 more mpg compared to his rookie year.
We need a go-to scoring wing, no question. But just because Brewer isn’t that player doesn’t mean he isn’t productive or doesn’t bring anything tangible to the team.
We're net worse per 100 poss. with Brewer
Surprisingly better on offense, worse on defense according to 82games. Horrible eFG%. Steals are nice, but only 11 wings have more TO, and most are 20 ppg guys.
He has played better recently. But consistency will be the key, and that’s unanswered.
Those last 6 minutes of the 4th quarter really were...
….a remarkable microcosm of Corey Brewer. He literally alternated between making brilliant plays and terrifying mistakes.
It’s a shame his last play was one of those mistakes. He played a good game overall….just got caught napping at the end. Inexcusible mental lapse, but sadly, he’s harldy the only player on the team that’s made one this year.
These last few games are making me think long and hard about the idea of moving Al, namely how it’s not a good idea if he keeps progressing. His passing is noticeably better, and he’s stepped it up quite a bit defensively as well. He’s blocking shots, rotating better than in the past and even stepping up to take charges. This is big, folks. Cross your fingers that it’s not a mirage and that he’s actually getting it.
He also has the ability to be a go-to bucket getter in crunch time, and guys that can do that are very rare indeed. He can’t do it every game, but few guys can, and the fact remains there are still games where he’ll single handedly keep you in it when the rest of the team isn’t hitting. There were a few possessions where he did just that in the OKC game and I remember thinking “damn, I think I forgot how good this guy is.” If they can field a perimeter guy with go-to abilities who can also generate points in those situations, I think this team will be on to something. This is why I really hope they can get Turner (or Wall, but ET is a perfect fit).
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
As the ringleader
of the highly-compensated group David Kahn has assembled to wade into Wolves blogs to soften up the fanbase so that the inevitable trade of Al Jefferson isn’t met with the scorn and derision it would otherwise receive (we’re quite thankful for the work, as our last Dark Ops was a referral from Ari Fleischer to troll Packers sites to talk about Favre being “washed up,” a prima donna," an “interception machine,” and “have you ever really tried to play touch football in a pair of Wrangers? When you start to get sweaty, they can really chafe”) a couple of notes on your very accurate perception of Jefferson’s skills and potential improvement:
1. Jefferson may be improving, but the team isn’t getting any better, nor are they winning more games. This demonstrates our stated belief that no matter how well Jefferson plays, this team as assembled will continue to suck.
2. Mr. Kahn has improved his dexterity on the NBA Trade Machine (he’s always cc’ing us emails showing that it’s possible to trade Brian Cardinal and Mark Blount for LeBron because “the Trade Machine said THIS TRADE IS SUCCESSFUL!!!!!!!”—It was cute the first dozen or so times). But without going deeply into the Luxury Tax, it’s going to be difficult to quickly add the 2-3 starters this team needs to be competitive, much less the depth needed to back them up, and even much less so the mature stars required to be considered contenders.
3. So with that in mind, although we appreciate Jefferson’s talents and value, we believe that it is just that value (and cost) that make him more attractive to a better team with brighter near-term prospects. In return we would hope to get several younger, more, uh, “economical” players, and that by giving them time to develop, a couple could become solid starters and one may become the #1 Player on a Good Team.
extra points..
….for the ari fleischer toll reference. ;)
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
he's a keeper
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKEjHa0_ZMI
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
One player not in the LBJ tier of talent is not going to drag this team up from the bottom, especially not in its current state of disarray. I just can’t get behind the logic that because Al isn’t leading a terrible team to wins that we should move him. Should we extrapolate that logic outside of the current situation and start looking to move our best player every time the team isn’t winning enough? Seems counter productive to me.
Answer me this: who do you move him for? Give me some names to illustrate the type of player you’d move Al for and then explain how it doesn’t set the franchise back even more years than it’s already going to take to right this ship. Adding new players to the team, in and of itself, is going to restart the rebuild because it ruins all the chemistry that they’re building right now. Yes, blah blah blah they suck now so they must not have chemistry, but keep in mind that this is an ongoing process and we’re obviously not seeing the best this team has to offer. They need a substantial investment of time to get to the point of showing us anything near their ceiling. On top of that, you’re not getting an established player that’s as good or better than Al in such a deal, so you probably also add another, younger player who will require even more development.
Al is not the problem. Lack of experience and the chemistry that you build by having players play together and get used to each other, as well as overall talent, are the problems. I can’t get behind a push to move Al until we put some actual NBA-caliber starters around him and give them time to gel and learn to play together. If, at that time, it becomes apparent that Al is holding us back, fine. Shop him. I’m a realist and I’m not attached to him sentimentally, but realism also tells me that dumping the team’s best player for a cheaper option just doesn’t make sense to me at this stage. If you want to attempt to field a competitive team before 2018, you don’t dump talent to save money and take back less productive players.
The exception is if you feel you’re getting a guy with star potential back in return and you’re confident in your scouting, but that’s a hell of a risky proposition. I’d have to think about it, but I’m not really seeing any potential deals that make sense off the top of my head, so if you have some in mind, please share.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I've always stated
that I don’t want to “dump” him for nothing, or less than several picks and prospects (plural), and my preference is that the Wolves add to the team they have, rather than any addition by subtraction, or trading apples for seeds. 1-2 players from the last 2-3 drafts and/or 1-2 lottery picks from the next 1-3 years is fine for me.
Part of my interest in trading Jefferson is that in their admittedly very short tenure, Kahn and Rambis have not demonstrated an ability to sign, trade for, and coach players any better than a replacement level GM and coach. I’ll give them all the benefit of the doubt in the coming years, but other than “it’s early” or “they’re tanking,” there is no way to defend what they have or haven’t accomplished so far. Is there one trade, pick, or free agent signing that would make any neutral observer would say that the Wolves exceeded expectations with the move?
Building a team is a combination of luck, skill, and money. I’m guessing on the money part, but I don’t think the team will be in the top tier of NBA team salaries any time soon. So they need skill in drafting/trading/signing/coaching. Again, it’s way too early to make any kind of pronouncement, but there is no evidence that Kahn/Rambis have any above-average skill in those areas. The last component is “luck”—and the only player they have who could possibly bring more picks and prospects (and therefore increase the team’s luck) is Al Jefferson.
The team has said that they can’t even think about the playoffs for at least three years. At the beginning of the 2013 season Al Jefferson’s best years will be behind him, he’ll either have had multiple injuries or have 20,000 minutes of wear and tear on his body, he’ll have cost the Wolves $60 million, and have one year left earning $15 million. My guess is that at that age and for that price he’ll be a defensive liability, and his value will be more as an expiring contract than as a productive player with many solid years ahead of him.
Eh. I see and understand where you’re coming from, and in theory it could work. My issue is still that I think moving Al sets the team farther back than is worthwhile. I don’t see any team giving us enough to make it worthwhile. What team with valuable picks is going to move for Al? And who’s giving up a young, high-ceiling player who’s not a total gamble (i.e. has shown something) for him? The likely outcome of moving him is poor return on your investment, and the NBA is a quality over quantity league. You don’t get ahead by downgrading your talent except in certain situations that I don’t feel are relevant here (bad attitudes etc.)
And Al is what, 25? He’s not going to be a washed up bag of bones at the ripe old age of 28. He’s still going to be quite productive, and possibly even better than he is now. At some point you need to pay your talent. That’s just the way it is. If we extend Love to $10 million a year and the team still isn’t winning to your satisfaction in a few years, should we shop him and restart because he’s costing us a bunch? I think you build a winning team by building on the talent you have, not by completely reloading every time it doesn’t seem to be working.
Also, if things come before 2013, I guarantee you they will be thinking about the playoffs. Kahn laid out a blue print, true, but that doesn’t mean it’s set in stone. He was managing expectations in case it actually takes that long. I guarantee that if they land a talent like Evan Turner next year, add something useful via free agency and get Senor Rubio here asap, this team can be competitive sooner than you think – but probably not if you’ve moved Al for Jeff Green and a low lotto pick.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Well, who knows.. I just think they have bigger issues to worry about right now than Al Jefferson. Overvaluing your players and refusing to move them even if it’s obvious they’re holding you back is a common mistake in the NBA, but we’re so far away from the point of objectively evaluating Al that it just seems rash to be looking at dumping him in the immediate future.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
See, that's where I think you and I agree
It’s because they are so woeful that they need to consider trading Jefferson (if the right package of picks and prospects comes along—and Jeff Green and the 11th pick ain’t it). I’m sure there’s some centuries-old story about a main character so desperate that he had to part with a prized sentimental possession just to eat. But since my Intro to English Lit class occurred at the same time The Price Is Right was on, I haven’t a clue as to what the name of that tale might be.
Kahn said this year is evaluating the talent we have. Next summer we pull together most of our roster. Next year with added talent we should be showing major improvement... at least playing .500 ball [possibly sneak into the playoffs]
The following season 2011-12, with the possible addition of Rubio, we should be going deep into the playoffs.
At the start of the 2011-12,
Jefferson is 26
Love is 23
Brewer is 25
Gomes is 29
Hollins is 27
Sessions is 25
Rubio is 21
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 25, 2010 11:23 AM CST up reply actions
Kahn mentioned that none
of the Core players will be traded this year. The word “Core” leaves a little bit of wiggle room. I would guess that includes at the very least, Al, Love, Flynn and Rubio. Outside of those, I am not sure. All bets are off with an outstanding offer, but I can’t really see one of those happening until the offseason anyways.
by TheEvilProfessor on Jan 25, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions
Let's All Drink on this Glass of Reality from a previous post
Brewer has a legacy of absolutely horrible offensive production. Bottom of the league stuff. Stuff that looks more like syphilitic lesions than warts. Lately, his sporadic offensive output, when on, really resembles the minimum job requirements for an NBA wing. Can you then accept that? Well, the reason I can’t is that I have nothing that suggests to me that he has a net positive impact on the team. It’s great to have his energy, and he seems like a good guy. But the team is wing production away from winning games, and that’s the bottom line
When you’re 9-35 the only way you’re going to get better is to accept the truth
On a separate note, I don’t care as much as others where we end up in the draft. We could have had Mayo, Curry, and Granger at the 1, 2, and 3 spots with a more astute front office (not that I don’t like K. Love, just making a point). Of course, it’s better to have Durant then anyone else on our team. But I think it bails out an inept front office (and I’m mainly speaking of Taylor) when we complain how unlucky our draft position has been
by Son of Gerald Green on Jan 23, 2010 7:16 PM CST reply actions
Again, not really fair to say...
….for the reasons I noted above.
But also because the ACTUAL reality is Brewer just isn’t the type of player you’ll ever be able to go to on the wings, no matter what team he’s on. It’s unfair to ask him to be TMac then criticize him when he isn’t.
If we’re going to get on Brewer for not being the kind of player we want him to be, then we should call out the whole team. Why doesn’t Jefferson defend like Dwight Howard? Why doesn’t Love score like Amare Stoudemire? Gee, those guys really let us down…
Also, by far the biggest draft error...
….was Brandon Roy. No brainer.
If we had kept Roy, I’m convinced KG would still be here and we’d be a playoff team, maybe even contenders right now.
Agreed.
What a terrible trade.
We all know that art is not the truth, art is a lie that makes us realize the truth.--Picasso
I'm not sure I follow--
KG was awesome and all, but is Roy good enough to make up for the Paul Pierce and Ray Allen additions that the Wolves would have been missing even if your scenario would have materialized? What about Rondo and Perkins—where would those types of players come from? Even if McHale would have thrown aside concerns over Roy’s injury potential and the cash the Blazers were offering, who’s to say that his ingeniuty and luck would have put the other pieces in place?
Don’t get too down—Roy would have been great, it was a terrible trade, but it’s difficult to see where the rest of the needed players would have come from.
I used to think this way
but not so sure anymore. I wonder if the Wolves would have still done the trade to try to save some money and get closer to the cap. Roy and Jefferson would be a good foundation, and younger as well. They may have also done the trade figuring Roy needed a couple years of improvement and by then KG would be on the downside.
Had they grab Granger and then kept Roy, I think KG would still be here because they could compete.
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Certain photos copyright © 2012 by Associated Press or Getty Images. Any commercial use or distribution without the express written consent of Associated Press and Getty Images is strictly prohibited.
That's why you have to love Brew, warts and all.
by Shogun on Jan 22, 2010 9:26 PM CST reply actions 0 recs