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Prowling the NBA: Jan 24 - It's the NBA show with Conan O'Brien

Who knew NBA players and late night talk show hosts had so much in common? They both sign multi-million dollar contracts to do what they do. They both feud with their teammates and bosses. They can both be bought out.

Hey, they even attended an all star weekend together!

Who knew Dikembe means banana?

Yes, for those who haven't heard (living in a cave..? etc etc), Conan O' Brien has been bought out of his contract with NBC as the host of the Tonight Show, after he and the network feuded over the right position for him and the Tonight Show brand. The buyout is somewhere in the ballpark of $40 million, with a stipulation that Conan cannot host another late night show until September 1.

For the record, I believe Conan will come out far ahead in this. NBC is screwing itself over in the long run.

So like many NBA players will be in the next month or so, Conan will soon be wearing a new jersey. Necktie. Whatever.

We've three weeks to go before the NBA trade deadline comes due, and there's more rumors out there than even O'Brien could shake a cue card at. This week there's trade talk galore...including a compelling reason why the Sacramento Kings should move Kevin Martin....a video breakdown of the NBA's best defense in contrast to the NBA's worst defense (that would be us, in case you hadn't figured it out...), scouting comments on this year's draft, and a chat wrap of David Kahn's live chat with the fans this past week.

But, as has become the weekly tradition for these updates....we start with Agent Zero....

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Gilbert Arenas will learn the specifics of his NBA suspension this week:

Two weeks ago, Prowling the NBA raised the obvious question about Arenas' suspension: what do you mean by 'indefinitely'?

Looks like this week, the NBA will be telling us.

Now that the criminal charges against Arenas have been officially filed, multiple NBA sources say that David Stern will specify the terms of Arenas' NBA punishment (as well as Javaris Crittenton's) sometime this week.

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This move by NBA management comes largely at the request (demand...?) of Derek Fisher, president of the NBA Player's Union, who argues that leaving the suspension as indefinite for an extended period of time sets a bad precedent among NBA officials and borders on an abuse of power. The NBA player's union as a whole has reportedly grown very concerned that Stern wants to make the indefinite part of Arenas' suspension indefinite itself.

Fisher addressed the issue with ESPN before the Lakers' game against the Knicks: "I don't know if there is a magic number of a certain amount of time, but I do think it's something we have to keep an eye on, because I don't know if it's about fair or unfair, but if it sets the right precedent to indefinitely suspend someone and just kind of keep it hanging without putting a name or title or number on it and moving on from there."

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"Billy (Hunter, Union director, pictured above) has been consistent with his message and his tone of really kind of waiting until the NBA comes out with what their position will be going forward, and until then we can't respond. But I do know that we're definitely keeping an eye on the indefinite part of the suspension, because I think everyone agrees that there will be a punishment that will fit the crime or the mistake he made, and what that should be, I don't know if anyone knows exactly, but hopefully we'll find out."

Fisher also noted that Arenas' NBA punishment will set the standard for any subsequent gun-related punishments, as Arenas is the first to violate the NBA's gun policy since it was instated in the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement.

But the main issue is Fisher and the Player's Union doesn't want 'indefinitely' to be an excuse of inaction by Stern to extend Arenas' punishment far beyond what his behavior should warrant.

"If I was commissioner? Well, I'm not privy what he has to balance, what all is at stake in terms of what message he sends to fans, to sponsors, to team owners. So there's a lot more on his plate to contemplate before he makes a decision. We respect that process, but from a union perspective we have to protect the short term and long-term rights of our members, and when members do wrong things or make mistakes, they'll be rightfully punished, and we're just here to make sure that that doesn't go beyond what it should be under the circumstances."

Arenas, of course, is also awaiting a final federal judgment, scheduled to be made in March.

And speaking of the Lakers, what better way to start the trade talk off than with a rumor surrounding LA and Derek Fisher?

The Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, and Memphis Grizzlies are interested in Nate Robinson:

And the Celtics have even reportedly made an offer for him.

Robinson has been sensational since Knicks' head coach Mike D'Antoni has let him back onto the court. Nate opened up with a 41 point game against Atlanta on New Years, and has averaged 14 points and 3.4 assists on nearly 50% shooting so far in January.

The Lakers are very concerned about Fisher's declining play and the number of elite point guards the team is bound to run into in the postseason. Fish is averaging just 7 points and 2.7 assists this season, and has shown his age on the defensive end. The Lakers are also not completely confident in Shannon Brown as the backup, and Jordan Farmar's status remains as enigmatic as ever; he plays well and continues to improve, but is reportedly not well liked by Lakers owner Jerry Buss.

The Celtics need depth....any kind of depth....at point guard behind Rajon Rondo. Doc Rivers seems unconcerned about Robinson's diva attitude, with a Celtics' staff member telling Boston radio "Doc thinks he can connect with anyone."

The Grizzlies...can probably be taken out of the equation. Robinson has early bird's rights on his contract this year, and doesn't appear very enthused about leaving New York for Memphis.

Also coming up in LA la land this week...

The Lakers are looking to move Sasha Vujacic and Adam Morrison:

Both would be financial moves aimed at dumping off salary to lighten the Lakers' luxury tax burden (which is quite substantial).

The problem, of course, is finding a team that wants either of them.

Vujacic has been a disaster since signing his new contract extension at the end of the 07-08 season. Since then, Vujacic has averaged just 4 points on 38% shooting, and has seen his minutes cut drastically in favor of Shannon Brown. Vujacic has also shown the habit 'shoot always-pass never' that I've convinced is directly correlated to the name "Sasha" in the NBA, and has replaced his formerly sticky defense with truckloads of Euroflopping, to the point he'll even flop when hit by his own teammate.

Morrison meanwhile has been a disaster long before he got to LA. Stache has been a career 37% shooter in the NBA with both the Lakers and Bobcats, who drafted him. If you can't somehow work your way even into a niche three point specialist with the Lakers, doing nothing but camping on the arc waiting for a kickout from Bryant....well, there's no hope.

Just like there was no hope for Gerald Green after he couldn't make it work with Jason Kidd. Cough cough everyone who told me he was the next TMac...

The chances the Lakers will be able to actually trade either player is almost zero. Even though he's an expiring contract, Morrison's third pick status makes his deal expensive enough that most team won't be willing to match his contract amount financially. Sasha still has a year remaining on his after this season.

The Lakers have tried to move Luke Walton as well, but appear to have given up on that line.

Now moving up to the Lakers' northern neighbors...

The Kings aren't looking to trade Kevin Martin....but they should:

Two rumors have come up this week around Kevin Martin; one to Dallas for Josh Howard, the other to Toronto for Jose Calderon.

The Toronto deal makes a lot of sense, at least on paper. The Raptors get a high scoring shooting guard to replace DeMar DeRozan's rather domestic production; the Kings get a pure point guard they badly badly need.

The reason I say the Kings need a point guard (as opposed to the popular line of thinking that Tyreke Evans already is their point guard) is because I had a hunch based on the difference in the Kings' win/loss record with and without Martin, that the backcourt duo of Evans and Martin was in fact hurting the Kings in a big way.

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Personally, I think it's obvious just by watching the Kings play that they're a lot better without Martin. But this is a site that likes to come at things from a statistics perspective, so as I promised last night, I ran some numbers, and I'd say it's pretty conclusive. The Kings are worse off in every way with Martin on the floor.

Individually, the Kings score more without Martin than with him:

Ex:

Jason Thompson: 10.6ppg with Martin, 15ppg without Martin
Andris Nocioni: 6.4ppg with Martin, 10ppg without Martin
Dante Green: 5.5ppg with Martin, 8.5ppg without Martin
Omri Casspi: 9.6ppg with Martin, 12.9ppg without Martin

Also...

As a team, the Kings score more without Martin than with him:

95.1ppg with Martin, 104ppg without Martin

...or by advanced stats:
106.6 p/100 with Martin, 109.5 p/100 without Martin

Also...

The Kings are vastly superior on defense without Martin than with him:


Give up 117.2 p/100 with Martin, only 110.2 p/100 without Martin

Also...

Tyreke Evans actually facilitates more without Martin than with him:

Tyreke Evans: 4.1apg with Martin, 5.2apg without Martin

Also...

The team as a whole facilitates better (and by consequence, shoots better) without Martin that with him:

50% assist rate with Martin, 53% assist rate without Martin

45.6 eFG% with Martin, 51.4 eFG% without Martin

And...

The Kings flat out win more without Martin than with him:

1-10 with Martin (0.10 win%), 14-18 without Martin (0.44 win%)

The vast majority of Martin's minutes went to Beno Udrih when Martin was out with injury....obviously his numbers are much better without Martin than with him. But more telling is the trend of the rest of the team with and without Martin.

What is happening is, when Martin is out and Udrih is playing, the Kings become a cohesive team unit, with everyone getting involved. When Martin is in, he and Evans are getting their numbers, but the rest of the team is falling flat.

What that tells me is that, as good as Evans has been this year (run away Rookie of the Year in my mind), the real key to the Kings' success is Beno Udrih and his ability to not only play a complimentary role to Evans, but also to get the rest of the team together and operating smoothly. And since Calderon is essentially Udrih with better ability across the board....

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...at any rate, the Kings seem determined to take a whole season to prove what I believe is already crystal clear. They flat out told the Mavs no, even though Dallas has changed its own stance and is willing to deal Josh Howard. But if there was anything there regarding Jose Calderon, I think the Kings are going to ultimately regret not exploring that possibility.

The Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns also are reportedly tracking Martin.

The Suns are actually rather slim at the shooting guard spot, not that...

Leandro Barbosa is out for at least a month to have wrist surgery:

Barbosa had moved into the starting lineup of late....part of head coach Alvin Gentry's "let's at least pretend to play defense" initiative (he also has been starting Robin Lopez instead of Channing Frye). Richardson will now move back into the starting five, and the Suns are suddenly without a solid backup for the shooting guard spot.

Also, the Cavs have injury issues. And trade issues...

The Cavaliers have reportedly made an offer for David West:

It's more or less the same rumor as their offers for Antawn Jamison and Troy Murphy...just a different target. The Cavs continue to shop Zydrunus Ilguskus' gigantic expiring contract in hopes of landing an above average power forward. They have, in the meantime, moved Anderson Verajao back to the bench in favor of youngster JJ Hickson, as the team feels Verajao is a more versatile option to fill in off the bench at both power forward and center.

The draw for the Hornets is that they have been unable to deal Devin Brown or Morris Peterson, leaving them with a luxury tax bill they don't want to pay. With Ilguskus, they could waive his deal and avoid the payout.

Mo Williams is out at least a month with a sprained left shoulder; Delonte West is day-today with a broken finger:

Williams injured his shoulder Tuesday against the Raptors. West injured his finger against the Lakers, starting in Williams' place.

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The injuries leave the Cavaliers severely depleted at point guard, with only combo guard Daniel Gibson to man the point. Gibson has seen his minutes cut this season as Cavs' head coach Mike Brown showed increasing concern over his lack of defensive focus.

Gibson will be the starter by default now, with the team planning a "point guard by committee" approach, as Mike Brown put it. Anthony Parker and LeBron will both see extended minutes at point guard as well.

The Cavs are discussing signing another point guard, and there are a couple good ones out there.

Point guard #1....

The Pacers are looking to trade TJ Ford:

Ford hasn't played a single game since December 30th, as Pacers' head coach Conan O'Brien...I mean Jim O'Brien...has elected to go with Earl Watson as the starter and AJ Price as his backup. O'Brien halfheartedly gives "defensive issues" and "effort issues" lines when asked why, but the bottom line is basically that Watson and Price can shoot the three ball. TJ Ford can't.

Well...Watson and Price don't shoot it great either. Ford is just way way worse.

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"The ball's in their court," Ford told the Indy Star. "Definitely, I want to play. If I'm not going to play here, if I can go somewhere else and play, then of course. It's a business. It is what it is. I'm doing all the things I'm supposed to do since I'm still on the roster. I'm healthy. I still get my workouts in, my conditioning in. I stay ready. If they trade me, they'll trade me on their own will and power. I haven't said anything. I'm just doing what I'm supposed to be doing."

 

 

When asked if he thinks Ford will be traded by the deadline, O'Brien said, "I don't think there's any doubt. He's a quality point guard. He could really help another franchise."

Hmm. Sounds more like Conan (Jim) thinks it's a "fit issue", no?

Point guard #2....

The New Jersey Nets are....not adverse to moving Devin Harris:

They aren't actively shopping him, but no longer do they consider him untouchable. An ESPN report said that the Nets are "no longer sold on Harris as a core piece on the team" and  would like to "package him with an expiring contract or two and get a young All-Star in return."

Chad Ford mentioned that there was talk about shipping Harris to the Wizards for Caron Butler, but both the Nets and Wizards have since said neither team has discussed such a trade.

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The main issue for the Nets....and the reason they aren't likely to trade Harris before the summer at least....is that without him, they have basically no point guard. Just journeyman Chris Quinn. And as you all already know, John Wall is basically the only point guard in the entire draft this year....if the Nets trade Harris now and fail to land Wall later, they face the prospect of having no point guard at all next season. Because of that prospect of Harris probably being the Nets' most likely option at point guard for the forseeable future, they seem inclined to keep him and speak well of him for the time being.

"It’s very, very unlikely that we’d trade Devin," said Nets' President Rod Thorn. "I never say never, but it’s very unlikely that he’s going to be traded. I read the same things you do. There was one thing I saw the other day that was just wrong ­— about we were talking to Washington about trading Devin for Caron Butler? We never had one conversation with Washington about Caron Butler."

"We value Devin. We think he’s a terrific player. I don’t see it happening. But again, you know me — I never say I won’t trade anybody — because you never know what anyone’s going to offer you. That’s why you can never speak in absolutes. But we value Devin."

"Point" guard....#3....?

The 76ers are growing increasingly determined to make a trade before the deadline, and are willing to part with Lou Williams to make it happen:

The thought process has been that if the team can't start winning some games....which they haven't....then the Sixers will blow up and start over.

They have already tried to trade Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert as separate pieces, but have gotten no interest, so they have reportedly opened up the field to include Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams as well.Certainly there will be more interest in a player who can do something like this:

For one, this makes a Tracy McGrady for Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert deal seem much more likely. If the Sixers are approaching this as a salary burn, that's the best way for them to do it. Piladelphia will clear $24 million off their payroll over the summer; the Rockets will acquire a star swingman and a good defensive center.

This of course, is partially working from my hunch that Yao Ming won't be playing big minutes anymore, if any at all.

Other teams interested in Iguodala are Dallas...for Josh Howard....and Cleavland...for Big Z.

Ok, now these Grizzlies....they're all over the place with the trade talk...

The Memphis Grizzlies...

A) Are looking at a trade for Miami's Dorell Wright:

This would be basically a financial move on the Heat's part. Trading Wright for a draft pick would get them below the luxury tax line, which is a priority for Heat President Pat Riley at the moment. The Heat feel it's unlikely they will keep Wright beyond this season as it is....again, mainly for financial reasons...so they figure they might as well try and get something for him now and avoid a luxury tax bill in the process.

On the Grizzlies end....and this is something a lot of you noted when we played them last.....they have a terrible bench. Rookie Sam Young is the only player who even remotely comes close to being consistently productive for them off the bench right now.

B) Looking at trading for Utah's Ronnie Brewer:

Which seems like a very very stupid thing for the Jazz to even consider. First, because they spent years before drafting Brewer pining for an athletic wing player like him. And second, because it'd just make more sense to move CJ Miles.

Like the Heat, the Jazz would be motivated into this by finances.

The Grizzlies are shopping their three first round picks for this year's draft, and the main point for both deals appears to be which pick they give up. The Jazz in particular are interested in a second first rounder; they have the rights to the Knicks' pick this year, but might end up having to give their own to us.

It is ironic how winning changes a team's perspective, isn't it? When they were losing, the Grizz wouldn't have dreamed of taking on extra salary for an extra player. Now that they're winning, it's like they can't acquire more talent fast enough.

The Bulls are still looking to make a trade:

And Tyrus Thomas is still their whipping boy...I mean their bait. Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng are also on the list, but overwhelmingly their efforts are focused on Ty.

It's an odd love/hate relationship there, since statistically, Ty is their second best player (better than Rose by the numbers which....is probably a good example of how the stats can be deceptive). But just by watching him, it's obvious he's better than Taj Gibson, who starts and receives the lion's share of minutes at the power forward spot. Gibson is a very average player in all regards....doesn't hurt the team, but doesn't help either...while Thomas makes a big and very visible positive impact for the Bulls defensively.

Like I said last week, I'd be very interested in acquire Ty Thomas, especially if he can be had for as cheap as it would appear. He can do some absolutely freakish things on the basketball court.

Chicago columnest Nick Friedell fielded questions about Thomas over the week. Here's what he had to say:

I feel like "The Tyrus Question" has become this season's version of "The Ben Gordon Question" from last year. Aside from trying to figure out who the Bulls are going to sign this summer, people want to know what the team is going to do with Thomas. I've said this before and I'll say it again now. There's little doubt that Tyrus is inconsistent and can frustrate fans and coaches alike. But, I think most people forget that he is just 23 years old. 23!

I think the Bulls are kicking all the tires and trying to figure out where they can upgrade and/or clear more space off the books in advance of this summer's free agent class. The rumors have been floating around Tyrus Thomas and Kirk Hinrich for a while and it will be interesting to see what happens over the next month. I would guess that the Bulls will make some kind of deal before the deadline.

And for some news about the Bulls' rivals to the north...

The Detroit Pistons are for sale:

Right. Not the roster. The whole damn team.

The current majority owner of the Pistons is Karen Walker...I mean Karen Davidson...who took over the team in the stead of her late husband, Bill Davidson.

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Davidson issued a one-sentence statement this week, saying, "I'm pleased, as noted by Oscar Feldman (Pistons minority owner), that the limited partners concur in my decision into inquiring about selling the team."

The estate Davidson took over is worth roughly $4 billion, while the Pistons are rated to be worth (according to Forbes) about $479 million....fourth most behind just the Lakers, Knicks and Bulls.

....but seriously....she looks like Megan Mullally....
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Anyway....some random trade talk odds and ends, then onto some NBA business news...

Trade talk notes:

The Warriors are still shopping their entire roster, but specifically Raja Bell, Speedy Claxton, Devean George, and Vladimir Radmonavic.

The LA Clippers are debating what to do with Marcus Camby in the wake of Blake Griffin's season-ending surgery.

The Suns are debating what to do with Amare Stoudemire...whether to trade him now for guaranteed value of keep him and risk him opting out and walking for nothing this summer.

The Blazers are still shopping Andre Miller, and looking for big man help.

The Spurs are considering packaging Roger Mason, Michael Finley, and Matt Bonner for a big addition to their bench.

The Jazz are still shopping Carlos Boozer before his deal expires this summer.

Now the business...

Oklahoma City Thunder owner Clay Bennet has reached a settlement with former Sonics season ticket holders:

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About 1,000 season ticket holders for the former Seattle Supersonics filed a suit against Bennet and his onwership group when the team moved to Oklahoma, the team backed out of a deal that would have allowed them to renew their tickets in 2010 for the same price they paid in 2007, costing them money when they resold the tickets to residents in Oklahoma.

Under the settlement, Bennett will pay out a total $1.6 million to these ticket holders to make up for the loss.

Jerry Stackhouse has signed with the Milwaukee Bucks for the remainder of the season:

Most of you noticed this when we played the Bucks this weekend.

The move is meant to help make up for the loss of Michael Redd to a season-ending ACL injury. Stackhouse was waived in July by the Grizzlies after being involved in the trade that sent Shawn Marion to Dallas and Hedo Turkoglu to Toronto.

Eddy Curry is out six weeks....basically the rest of the season...with a knee injury:

Which is most notable because it all but guarantees the Knicks won't be able to trade him by the deadline, which leaves them in a serious bind this summer.

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If the Knicks want to make good on their plan to sign two max free agents this summer...which is the only way they're going to land either LeBron or Dwyane Wade...their only option now is to move Jared Jeffries.

As some of you noticed this week, Jeffries has been starting and receiving nearly 30 mpg lately. Trust me when I say that's purely a showcase move on D'Antoni's part. Also trust me when I say no one has any interest in a $7 million player averaging 4 points and 4 rebounds.

Next up...defense...

The Charlotte Bobcats play the NBA's best defense, and here's why:

 

A lot of you have been asking, especially lately, why the Wolves play such terrible defense. Which is completely fair because we do, by pretty much any account, play the worst defense in the NBA.

We are 3rd worst in opponent's ppg

Second worst in negative point differential

7th worst in overall defensive efficiency

3rd worst in opponent's FG% at the rim and last in opponent's assist rate at the rim, meaning we give up more assisted layups and dunks than any other team in the league (also known as no interior defense)

5th worse at opponent's 3pt% and 3pt assist rate (meaning no perimeter defense)

And we've given up over 120 points more than any other team this year

The opponents' points per game stat is the one to really look at, because that's the bottom line, and the two teams "behind" us are the Suns and Warriors....teams whos systems are all but built to intentionally not play defense.

Now, let's take a look at the Cats' defense:

Three things immediately stand out to me in that video:

At the 1:08 mark - Quentin Richardson tries to drive into the paint and gets cut off by a quick double team, which then rotates back to Chalmers, the open shooter.

This is called stopping the ball...forcing the player dribbling it to stop his dribble and thus, stop his drive. The Wolves do not do this. Several times last night, the Bucks' announcers noted the difference between how Brandon Jennings cut off Jonny Flynn, while Flynn let Jennings go flying right by him.

At the 1:30 mark - Wade and Jermaine O'Neal attempt a pick and roll, but are shut down by Diop and Gerald Wallace. Diop shows hard on the screen, keeping Wade from turning the corner into the paint, while GForce gets into the passing lane and shadows O'Neal as he rolls to the hoop. Without that lane open, Wade tries to force a pass to the opposite side of the court and Diaw picks it off.

Again, another set of things the Wolves do not do. For one, our bigs don't show on those screens. The only one who I've seen consistently attempt to is Hollins, who usually shows too hard and ends up with a foul. Love often steps out soft, not cutting off the corner, and half the time his head is turned towards the hoop looking for a rebound of trying to keep up with the guard who went by him. Jefferson doesn't even try. Pech often doesn't even know where the ball is in the first place.

At the 2:00 mark - Classic perimeter rotation on defense. Most of you have already noted, we suck at it. The video does a good job of explaining how the Cats do it right; Augustin and Brown trap the ball, Gerald Wallace rotates to Brown's man, Diaw comes out of the paint to guard Wallace's man.

The faults I see with the Wolves are one of two things: either our wing player (GForce) doesn't make the first rotation to the open wing, or our big doesn't come out of the paint to cover the wing's man.

A lot of you comment how Brewer seems out of position a lot, but look closely and track which player is his actual assignment. Often what I see is Corey making the right rotation to the open man, but no one rotating to his man. The crazy running around you see is actually Corey trying to get back to his own man because his teammates failed to pick that guy up.

One comment I don't see that I think needs to be made is how our bigs often don't step out of the paint to rotate to open perimeter shooters. In the last example I noted above, it was Boris Diaw coming out of the paint to contest the shot out at the arc. If you pause the video at the 2:08 mark, you see that Diaw is at the charging circle when the pass is made, but gets all the way out to the three point line by the time the shot goes up. On our team, that's Kevin Love (not hatin' just lining it up by position)....how often do you see Love or Jefferson or Pech running out of the paint to contest a three pointer? Not often. In Jefferson's case, not ever. In Pech's case, he's usually not even facing the right direction.

I think a lot of fans just see perimeter shots being made and assume it's the perimeter players' fault, but that's not always the case.

It's true we don't exactly have a roster of good defenders....certainly not in the way the Bobcats do. But we also fall very short on fundamental things like stopping the ball and rotating on the perimeter, and that's not acceptable. Whether Rambis isn't teaching it (and I find it very hard to believe he wouldn't teach the basics...) or the players aren't executing it, something needs to be done.

Ok....speaking of Gerald Wallace....it's All Star time....

Nate Robinson, Gerald Wallace, and Shannon Brown will compete in this year's dunk contest:

Robinson is the defending champ, and as I predicted, Shannon Brown will join him. Gerald Wallace is returning for his second stint in the contest, and as reported last week, a dunk-off will be held between Eric Gordon and DeMar DeRozan to determine the fourth contestant.

Laker fans have been relentlessly promoting Brown this year for the dunk contest with the website LetShannonDunk.com

The contest also lacks a certain noteworthy player: LeBron James, who said at last year's contest he'd compete this year.

We know that LeBron will, however, be in the All Star game, because...

The All Star starters have been announced:

They are as follows:

East:

Allen Iverson

Dwyane Wade

LeBron James

Kevin Garnett

Dwight Howard

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess none of us are particularly surprised by that...

West:

Steve Nash

Kobe Bryant

Carmelo Anthony

Tim Duncan

Amare Stoudemire

Ok....maybe a little more surprising.

For one, Dirk had a 50,000 vote lead over Duncan in the second-to-last balloting return. So that was a comeback victory if ever there was one. Add into that, that the All Star game is in Dallas this year, and well....let's just say Mark Cuban's not going to be real happy about having to change this picture...

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Second, it's debatable whether Nash actually finished with more votes than Tracy McGrady, or if the league intentionally threw out TMac's votes because he's been thrown off the Rockets. Hmm....

There was also some debate about whether Iverson, who's played only 19 games this year total, should accept the starting spot. For his part, Iverson said it was a no-brainer yes, and added, "I just want to thank everybody for their support this season and it's an honor that the fans have voted me into the All-Star Game as a starter. The fans are who make us and make the NBA so popular. This year is even more special because I'll be representing a city and fans that I love and a team that has been such a big part of my life throughout my career."

Alright....let's talk draft....

Draft Watch:

Sports Illustrated did a scouts interview that brought up the names of our favorite players. But before we get to that, two things:

1) S-n-P has another Draft Board topic up, where you can go in depth with draft discussion.

2) A couple notes about a few players.

Stanley Robinson (UConn):

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First, some of you have commented on UConn's Stanley Robinson. I don't have any advanced numbers on him, but I will say this; just by watching him, I think he's going to be a huge impact player on the defensive end, in the mold of Josh Smith or Gerald Wallace. He's got a strong body, he's athletic, quick, a good shotblocker for his size and position, and a smart defender. He's also got a great all around game in terms or scoring and rebounding, and I think his passing ability gets hidden a lot by UConn's ball-dominant guards, Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker.

Robinson came up big over the weekend with 17 points and 12 rebounds in UConn's upset win over #1 ranked Texas.

JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)

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Another prospect I'd look at is Purdue's JaJuan Johnson. He seems very Chris Bosh-like to me. He's putting up number similar to Derrick Favors and Ed Davis, but is being ranked lower because he's a junior and this is the first time he's been solid on the glass all year.

Neither of these players are guys I'd take at the top. But with the Charlotte or Utah picks...somewhere in say, the 15-25 range....they definitely should be up for consideration.

SI scouting report:

The summary is that John Wall, Evan Turner, and Wes Johnson are the top 3 prospects. The rest are far far behind, with no clear order.

The following are the comments made about each player by the scouts who were interviewed:

John Wall:
Scout 1 - "The only true star I've seen. I thought he was very special when I saw him in person and the way he took command of the game. I didn't expect anything like that. He's a better version of Derrick Rose because his hands are so quick."

Scout 2 - "He's a better shooter than Rose, a better defender than Rose. He doesn't quite have that strength and body that Rose had, but give him a couple of years and he might even be quicker and faster than Rose. He has such unbelievable speed and quickness and length and intensity at both ends of the floor. Let me say he's far from being a perfect player and he has a lot to learn, but he's one of those guys who will be better served to play in the NBA than in college, because the open floor space and the way the NBA is designed will suit him better.

"He has to improve his shot, but he has the makings of a floor general: tough, aggressive, willing to put his neck out and be a leader. He is far from being organized and establishing a rhythm on the court, but he looks like he will be able to do that eventually. At the very worst case, he should become a starting point guard on a top team."

"I've heard guys say he could be Gary Payton (on defense). That's a hell of a thing to say, but he has that type of body and quickness."

Scout 3 - "Wall is up there with Rose, Chris Paul and all of those guys. You get him and you'll have your point guard for the next 10-13 years based on his size, speed, length and basketball IQ. And he can defend. He's not a great shooter, but no one can stop him from getting where he wants to go on the court. And that, for me, is the greatest asset for a point guard, when you can collapse the defense and get into the paint, and then when they have to start helping, they're done. He reminds me of Micheal Ray Richardson -- that guy was the best; he was Magic Johnson when he played. That guy could get 15 rebounds and 15 assists, and he wasn't a great shooter, but he could get 20 every night. That's who Wall reminds me of."

Evan Turner:
Scout 4 - "Wall and Turner are Nos. 1 and 1a. Turner is going to be an All-Star. I have great faith in that. His size, his approach, his style of game -- all are suited to the pros."

"You can see he's a guy who enjoys playing. His ability to improve his shooting will control his greatness. He's like Oscar Robertson. He can have that type of impact. Oscar wasn't a guy people worried about when he went behind the pick and launched the bomb -- you almost preferred him to do that -- and that's how it is with Turner."

Scout 2 - ""Evan Turner is the most interesting guy in the whole draft, because a lot of guys feel that way about him and really like him. And then there are a lot of guys who absolutely don't like him. I'm wrestling with it.

His game is based on strength and aggressiveness, he's a very skilled guy and he's in relentless attack mode from the opening tip. How is that going to work in the NBA if he's playing out of control? He's a guy who has had triple-doubles including turnovers.

"But the other side of it is that you could put him at the point and, if he refines his skills, you could wind up with a guy who is bigger and tougher than Brandon Roy -- like Brandon Roy on steroids, a beast. Now, part of Roy's beauty is that he never tries to do what he can't do, he plays within himself and he's a smart player. This kid is like Roy unleashed, so watch out because he plays on emotion and he can be his own worst enemy. No matter what, he's not going to slip far because of all that talent."

Scout 1 - "He's a point guard in our league, or a point-forward. He has the ball in his hands for Ohio State 90 percent of the time. He's strong, he can really, really pass, he's a great rebounder and he's tough. He's not a great shooter, but he can score 20 a night on tip-ins and mid-range jump shots. Why shoot threes if no one is able to stop him from 15 feet and in? If he works at it -- and everything I'm told is that he has a great work ethic -- he can learn to make enough threes and become a great player. He's a monster."

Scout 4 - "He has personality, charisma, he's a big guard who has no fear driving to the basket. He has to improve his outside shot, but he can do anything on the floor."

Wesley Johnson:
Scout 1 - "Wesley Johnson has been the surprise of the year. He has a lot going for him -- size, skills -- and he's the reason behind Syracuse's 18-1 season. He has the potential to be very special, and I'm told he has a good basketball mind. At the end of the day, he can be a 20-point scorer, a good rebounder and a passer."

Scout 2 - "He's way, way behind defensively. Syracuse is actually trying on defense this year; their zone is the reason they're doing well. For a college team it's a great way to guard, but for us it doesn't help. You watch some guys in college and you can see they help to make the zone better, and then you watch other guys like Johnson and it looks like they're trying to hide in the zone, and that if you pulled him out of the zone and asked him to play man-to-man against NBA players, it could be scary. But I hear he's a great kid and willing to work."

Scout 3 - "He is Shawn Marion. He's an insane athlete who can make some shots, a much better shooter at the same stage of his career than Marion ever was. He's a little small -- he's 6-7 and slight -- but he can run. Last month, he got 19 rebounds [at Seton Hall], which is a big number at any level, but in the college game it's off the charts. He doesn't have a great handle -- he's a one-bounce player who can get from the wing to the basket. But he's not good in the open court; he's more of a straight-line player who is not very creative."

Scout 4 - "Wesley Johnson is definitely worth talking about. He is a scorer, a complete package -- jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He grades out well in everything except for breaking you down and getting his own shot. A pretty good player."

Now, the concern here with Johnson is that multiple scouts have noted he's not a create-his-own-shot type of player. He needs to be set up. That could be a big problem for us, as we have plenty of those types already. We need a go-to wing scorer who can isolate and score on anyone. It sounds like Johnson isn't that guy.

The rest:
The No. 4 spot is where the scouts started having trouble coming up with names. All agree that Wall, Turner and Johnson will share the top three picks, but Nos. 4 and 5 generate a variety of names with little conviction for any of them.

"I just don't think this is a very good draft," said one team exec who rates Aldrich as a potential No. 4 pick. "There is going to be a group of seven or eight guys who separate themselves, which means that teams will pick for need. The order of teams in the lottery is going to determine who goes where in this draft.

Cole Aldrich and Willie Warren:
"Aldrich is a solid, safe pick as a guy who is going to show up every night. He's big and long, he has good hands, he knows how to play. Is he a go-to guy? Is he going to have the upside to become an All-Star? I don't know. But everybody needs bigs who are long and play hard every night and run the floor, who can catch and finish, who hit their free throws. A lot of it depends on how far Kansas goes this year. But he's already an NBA player -- not flashy, but he's a big man who can do a lot of things."

"If a team needs a big, they'll take Aldrich; if they need a point guard, they'll take Willie Warren. He is talented, he's quick, he can shoot it, and I think he can be a '1.' If he was in last year's draft with all of those point guards, I don't think he would be rated this high. But this year, after John Wall, there is no other point guard. So he is going to benefit from the timing of the draft."

Donatas Motiejunas:
"He's got the talent, the body, the feet. Maybe he should wait one more year before declaring, because he's still too fragile in his upper body. He gets pushed around too easily. But if he can go in the top five in a weak draft, maybe he'll come out. He has good touch with both hands around the basket, he can shoot the three and he loves to play."

The next Dirk, maybe...?

Greg Monroe:
He's not a jumping-jack, but he's a good athlete who rebounds the ones he should get, and he's an average shot-blocker. What he has going for him is that he's one of the best-passing bigs I've ever seen. That makes him a great complementary player if you're looking for someone to blend in."

Derrick Favors:
"He's a very enticing player with length and great hands, and I'm sure he'll go in the top 10. But I wouldn't push to take him. He's one of those guys that you hope the team in front of you takes so you don't have to make the hard decision to pass him up. He's talented, but I haven't seen him play very hard. He should be getting 12 rebounds every night and getting some of them above the square. His motor needs to improve."

So there you have it. That's SI's early take, and the scouts they talked to seemed in agreement on what they said.

I think the consensus here is the same consensus they reached: John Wall or Evan Turner.

David Kahn chatwrap:

If you want to read the whole thing, you can check out FSN's Archive here. I'll just post the most interesting parts.

The main thing is, like the chat participants, you're not going to get anything about free agency or the draft. Kahn isn't allowed to name names and say "we're interested" in the same sentence. It got so bad that, at one point, the moderator had to specifically ask participants to stop asking those questions, which I found pretty amusing (and guess was pretty ineffective)

David-kahn-and-glen-taylor-owner-of-the-timberwolves_medium

OK, welcome to the chat with David Kahn on foxsportsnorth.com! I'm Patrick, your moderator, and I'll be steering this ship. David will be joining us in just a few minutes, so go ahead and start asking your questions.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:23
7:29
   
[Comment From David KahnDavid Kahn: ]
How is Ricky Rubio progressing in Spain? I have watched him recently, and it looks like his game is really taking off. Your thoughts?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:29 David Kahn
7:30
   
    David says:  He's really played well the last month or so. He's been the starting point guard all season for what is arguably the best team in Europe. There's no question his experiences this year will make him more NBA-ready.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:30
7:31
   
[Comment From David KahnDavid Kahn: ]
Is Nikola Pekovic viewed as trade bait, or a part of this franchise? When do you see him coming over? Thanks!
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:31 David Kahn
7:31
   
    David says: I think he'll come over next season and I should see him play sometime in February. Until then it's hard to be specific about how he fits into our plans.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:31
7:31
       
[Comment From David KahnDavid Kahn: ]
I have watched a lot of Evan Turner this year, I hope you're watching him as well, because he'd be a perfect fit on the Wolves!
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:34 David Kahn
7:35
   
    David says: I saw Evan Turner play in person last Saturday night at Ohio State. Unfortunately, as you may know, we're prohibited from making any statements on underclassmen so I can't comment beyond that.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:35
7:35
   
[Comment From BrandonBrandon: ]
What happens if the Wolves get the #1 pick in what most observers believe is the John Wall draft?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:40 Brandon
7:41
   
    David says: We celebrate!
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:41
7:42
   
[Comment From BradBrad: ]
Do you think that the wolves will make any trades in the upcoming weeks with the trade deadline in Feb.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:42 Brad
7:42
   
    David says: I am not sure yet, but I doubt if we'll do something with our core pieces, as I've said earlier.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:42
7:43
   
    Readers, please hold off on your questions about college players. David can't talk about them unless they've declared for the draft. We want the Wolves' money to go into the roster, not NBA fines, right?! -- Patrick the Moderator
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:47
7:49

[Comment From NickNick: ]
Do you still believe Rubio and Flynn can play together? As in Rubio at the 1 and Flynn at the 2.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:54 Nick
7:55
   
    David says: Yes, or just play together -- I wouldn't necessarily classify them in those terms. They'd be guards playing together.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:55
7:55
   
[Comment From FelixFelix: ]
I was really wondering about Ramon Sessions role lately... Why did we sign him when he receives so little playing time?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:56 Felix
7:56
   
    David says: With a young, rookie point guard in Jonny, I felt it was necessary to have a quality player capable of starting if Jonny needed more time to grow into the position.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:56
7:57

[Comment From SamSam: ]
Will a player's fit in the triangle offense factor heavily into your personnel decisions in the future, or do you plan on fitting the system to the talent available?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:03 Sam
8:03
   
    David says: I am much more concerned with whether the player can play in the full-court running style of play that flows into an offense where you have to use every basketball skill -- shooting, passing, driving, the whole nine yards.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:03
8:04
    
[Comment From RickRick: ]
Getting longer and more athletic is certainly a goal, but how much weight do you place on Basketballl IQ? Is it inherent, or can it be taught?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:05 Rick
8:05
   
    David says: I think it's mostly inherent.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:05
8:06  

[Comment From JballsJballs: ]
Mr. Kahn, Do you have a preference as to drafting a shooting guard or would you rather sign a proven NBA scorer via free agency?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:31 Jballs
8:32
   
    David says: I think it's important for us to see how the NBA Draft order plays out before we make that decision.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:32
8:33
   
[Comment From RobRob: ]
What player has surprised you the most season on the Wolves in terms of defying your expectations (positively or negatively)?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:40 Rob
8:41
   
    David says: I think Wayne Ellington is having a better rookie season than I anticipated. I've been very impressed with Kevin Love's all-around game.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:41
8:43

So there you have it. About as much as Kahn will say about the things he's allowed to say anything on.

The moral of this week's story: Never sign a contract with NBC. Or the Knicks.

Until next week....

0 recs  |  Comment 91 comments |

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I continue to be surprised with the Martin/Evans issue:
  • surely with the size advantage Evans has, you use him at point guard. Martin and Casspi spacing the floor makes Evans getting in the lane a nightmare. He’s got the handle to be a PG, has he not?
  • While Nocioni, Green, Casspi and Thompson all have drops in their ppg with Martin on court, I would have though Martin’s production added to the stats of the other four is relevant.
  • How does the strength of the opponent compare in those win-loss records? Martin rejoined the active roster through a six game swing through the East which has included losses at Philadelphia, Washington and Charlotte. And in the last week and have been pounded at Atlanta, Miami and Orlando – venues in which many teams flounder.
    The other five games which make up the 1-10 are home and away losses to a healthy Blazers, road losses to the Lakers and Phoenix and a home win over Golden State.

They most certainly has some good wins without Martin, but the majority of the schedule with him has involved road games at better than average teams. And no the Sixers and Wiz don’t count.

I am by no means a Kevin Martin fan but I can understand the lack of haste in making a deal for him. His trade value must improve as his contract shortens and he needs a prolonged stint to see if he and Evans can work it out.

Free Alando!

by Auswolf on Jan 25, 2010 6:54 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

To be honest, I'm baffled by it too

Because by every other account, Evans should excel as a point guard, and further, should be better at the point with Martin out there, not worse.

What I think is happening….and I’ll have to watch a couple more Kings games to really verify it….is that Martin is playing a ball dominant style of ball. So it’s not so much that Evans can’t do the job, but rather perhaps that he simply has the ball in his hands a lot less.

Also, Martin isn’t much of a facilitator, so him hogging the ball might also explain why the rest of the team falls off the earth when Martin is in.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 1:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the stats

Don’t see why he wouldn’t do the same (e.g. make his teammates production go down) on the Wolves. Hopefully we can put the Martin trade ideas to rest. At least he is fragile enough they don’t have to play with him often. :-)

by Cedarpenguin on Jan 25, 2010 3:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Kudos for a fantastic report

One thing that sticks out to me is Stoudemire. This has been mentioned before, but is he really likely to opt out after this year? He must know that means a pay cut next season. Is it worth that to lock into another long-term deal a season early? He isn’t old. I’d pick up my player option, take my $17 million, and become a free agent at age 28.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 25, 2010 9:14 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

If he stays in Phoenix he won't leave that money on the table.

But the annual Amar’e trade rumours have started and according to some Arizona publications we are one of the teams sniffing around.

You couldn’t trade for the guy and have him opt out 35 games later. Unless you wanted more cap space.

Free Alando!

by Auswolf on Jan 25, 2010 3:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

+1

That was quite the report — thanks! Looking at the trade opportunities, it looks like Kahn could easily trade Sessions if he wanted to. I hope he doesn’t. Flynn has a lot to learn about running an offense, and some of it he can learn from Sessions.

by Dave T on Jan 25, 2010 10:43 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

I don't see Wes Johnson going in Top 3

Turner and Wall – sure. But I bet someone else pops into the top 3 by the time the draft rolls around. I was surprised the writer at SI said that when I read the column originally. I don’t think it is a clear top 3 at all.

Also, count me among those who are delighted the Wolves are the second worst team in the NBA. I want another very high draft pick in a draft class like this before we start to ascend. :)

by Django Z on Jan 25, 2010 11:02 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

Yes. Preferably a top 2! We need our Brandon Roy type before we start to improve too much organically.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 1:15 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm a little surprised by that too

I wouldn’t rate Johnson top 3, even by the base production meter. From that perspective, I think it’s Wall, then Turner, then UNC’s Ed Davis.

But I think all things considered, some team is going to take Favors in the top 3, even with the question marks. Too much potential to pass on.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 1:43 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

And I think the Favors case is very similar to Amare Stoudemire

In the 02 draft, Amare dropped to #9 largely because of the same questions that surround Favors. And granted, he’s not a terribly motivated player….doesn’t rebound or defend as well as someone with his frame and talent should….but if you were to do that draft over again, there’s no way…no way….you take Chris Wilcox, Drew Gooden, Djuan Wagner, Jay Williams, or Mike Dunleavey before him. Amare goes second overall behind only Yao Ming….maybe third behind Yao and Nene.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 1:44 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Your comment on wolves defensive rotations is on the mark, but I'd make one caveat. You said Jefferson has made "run outs" to the open 3 point shooter.

Thats been true in the past, but more recently, when the wolves have tried more on defense, he has made “run outs” with arms up, contesting.

The overall problem with the wolves rotations, is they only seem to do one rotation. Once the opponent makes the second pass, we are generally not pursuing.

By the way, our interior defense is hurt the same way. Watch when someone drives down the lane and our “big” say, Jefferson or Love steps up to contest, the “smart teams” have guys cutting in from the wings along the baseline behind our big men. There again the “second rotation” is not happening properly. No one steps up to meet the cutter going to the hoop who invariably gets an easy dunk or layup. But it is NOT the “initial” big’s fault that he is out of position. He made the proper rotation to stop the initial penetration. The other big, or more likely one of our wings, should be rotating down to the baseline. [Its most often one of our wings because this cutting offense is designed to draw our bigs away from the basket.]

This team overall hasn’t spent enough time on defense. We need much more practice time on rotations.

If you watch the charlotte film and compare it to our team defense, charlotte’s defenders spend most of their time covering one man. It might be their original cover or someone they have switched off on, but they are covering one man. They move with cutters. Our defenders seem to spend an inordinate amount of time covering no one. Not covering their original man or a guy on a “switch”. I see this most often from wings. Their is not enough trust that if you switch off to another man, someone will cover your man. But if you don’t trust someone to cover your man, the whole team defense breaks down.

As you said players like Corey are trying to cover two people. Can’t be done. Corey is going to have to learn to trust the team defense Rambis is going to have to “ensure” that someone rotates to cover Corey’s open man.

If you go back to watch Hornets, Thunder and even 76ers games, rotations were mostly happening properly. Guys were making run outs to the 3 point shooters.

We can do it, but we need much more practice. The Bucks “cutting offense” was designed to take advantage of a team defense that makes the first or maybe second rotation correctly but by then breaks down. Good team defenses don’t break down. Thats where we need to get.

by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 25, 2010 11:08 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

We do have a lot less "defensive talent" than the Cats....

….I think Brewer is the only guy on our roster that has the potential to match their wings in that regard, and even then, Corey is several years of experience and several quality teammates short of being there.

I agree Jefferson is getting better at runouts, but it’s still a lacking part of his game, and obviously, he doesn’t have great quickness or length for that. Rotations definitely break down frequently for us, whether it be the second, third, or fourth move in the chain.

I think what it boils down to is just us needing to learn how to keep the ball out of the paint a lot more, because that’s where most of our problems ultimately originate from. And that encompasses the whole team, whether it’s guards stopping the ball, bigs showing right on screens…whatever. Needs to be better.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 1:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

In December we were ABOVE AVERAGE in ppg given up in the paint. [Thats the only month we have consistently played both Jefferson and Love - not pulled both or played Love limited minutes]

In the paint — we gave up 38.4 ppg in December [we ranked 13th in ppg give up in the paint] [Median team the kings gave up 38.5]

Out of the paint — we gave up 66.6 ppg in December. The median team gave up 60.4.

by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 25, 2010 2:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not scoring in the paint

Stopping the ball. Defensive breakdowns happen when guards get into the paint. That’s where defenders are getting screened off, where guys get out of position, where defensive rotations don’t happen.

When Steve Nash drives into the paint, he rarely actually attempts a layup….he does it to draw the defense in and force rotations to happen. He got by his man, so the next man has to pick him up, someone has to pick up that defender’s man, and so on. That’s how the Suns end up with all those wide open threes….Nash breaks down the defense and finds where the rotation chain comes apart.

Jennings did the same thing to us Saturday. Got into the paint and got the ball to the man we left open.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 3:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Both

Because both are necessary in stopping the ball.

If you look at the examples used in the Bobcats video, you see that a lot of times (like on the screen and roll), the ball is being stopped because one of their bigs like Diaw or Diop is way out on the three point line double teaming and showing off screens.

I mean, no one stays in front of Wade one-on-one. As a defender, you’re always at a disadvantage to the ballhandler because you’re not initiating the movement, you’re reacting to it. It takes a team effort to play that kind of defense.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 3:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Great post, Oceanary

Thanks. The college scouting report was especially informative since I am not watching much college ball this year (at least until March).

We all know that art is not the truth, art is a lie that makes us realize the truth.--Picasso

by uncle rico on Jan 25, 2010 11:20 AM CST reply actions   0 recs

To the extent that this is a catch-all thread

Barca actually lost its 2nd ACB game last night. 60-59 to Power Electronics Valencia. It looks like it was just one of those games where nobody could make a shot, including Rubio.

by Eric in Madison on Jan 25, 2010 12:27 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Fine work as usual, Oceanary

I’m hoping we get one of the top two picks – we could use an easy choice once in our lifetime, right?

Not sold at all on Favors. I’ve watched parts of three Ga. Tech games (not much of a reference, I know), and while he is definately athletically gifted, he still plays like the 18 year old he is. I’d be more inclined to take a flier on Tyrus Thomas – you have a better idea of what you’re getting.

The more I see of Greg Monroe, the more I like him. In the last couple of games, he’s started to show the fire that many scouts have said he lacks. I hope he’s available with the Charlotte pick – a little tutelage from Rambis and Laimbeer and we could have a real stud on our hands.

by SoDakHmr on Jan 25, 2010 12:49 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I’ve been on the Monroe bandwagon for quite a while, and I’m afraid there’s no way he’s falling to Charlotte’s pick. Regardless of where he’s “rated” right now, he’s 6’11" with decent bulk, phenomenal passing ability, and a good low post game. I doubt he’ll be around after #5 or #6. And I won’t be surprised if he goes #2 or #3, if he finishes the year strong.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 3:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Love Monroe

He may not be the athletic specimen big Kahn’s looking for, is the thing. But what a smart, versatile player. Georgetown big with the pedigree and all.

(It’s been ludicrous to check into places like draftexpress and see Monroe supposedly a notch below the lottery on their board for a while now. What. the. heck?)

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 3:13 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah, I haven't really understood that, either..

He produces in college in the best conference in the country, he has the size of an NBA center, and he has not only an all-around game, but an elite skill as a passer. Favors has more upside in the Dwight Howard-sense, so he might be a better prospect. But not too many others bring the all-around value that Monroe brings to the table.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's his age

NBA scouts read a lot into age and the supposed correlation it has on future potential. The line of thought is that Monroe is as good right now as he’ll ever be.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 3:34 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

http://www.draftexpress.com/profile/Greg-Monroe-1109/

Birthdate: June 4, 1990 – 19.5 years old.

If scouts are worried about Greg Monroe’s age, they should be fired.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 3:41 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If I’m OKC, I do whatever it takes to land Monroe. Can you imagine how good they’d be if they could get him on that team?

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 3:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It is, unfortunately, the way things go in the NBA

By all other accounts, Monroe is having a fantastic year….his scoring is up, his rebounding is up, his assists are up, his blocks are up. But scouts are looking at him and thinking “well, this is his second year, he’s not jumping out of the gym….how much potential does he really have?”

I think Kevin Love could have ended up in the same situation if he had stayed at UCLA another year. That one year makes a huge difference in how scouts view a player, and it oddly goes back and forth between being a very positive thing (such as in the cases of Ed Davis and Evan Turner) or a very negative thing (Greg Monroe and Gani Lawal….and to a certain extent, Cole Aldrich)

I also think there’s a bit of a mob mentality involved, where if a couple respected scouts get down on a player, the rest follow suit.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 3:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of the league's best big men...

how many are high-jumpers? Monroe is tall-enough to take that worry out of the equation. I’m not saying you’re wrong about scouts and what they look at — I’m just saying that Monroe’s ability will be pretty obvious by draft time and he’s not falling outside the Top-10. Too much size, skill and production for that to happen.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 4:09 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Especially considering

That many now consider Dajaun Blair a top 5, or even top 3, rookie this year. I’d love a feisty big man who could put up solid numbers with great defense.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 25, 2010 4:12 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Blair's case was...

….more concern over his injuries.

Same with Darrell Arthur the year before

I think Monroe will be a lottery pick in the end. But getting into the top 8 or so is probably going to require a big tournament run by Georgetown, and a big shift in popular opinion. It’s more likely, I think, that Monroe goes somewhere in the 10-15 range as a draft steal similar to Brook Lopez.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:14 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just checked out Ford's Top 100

…and Monroe is 23rd. That’s just comical.

I really hope that every GM except Kahn feels that way, and we get him with Utah or Charlotte’s pick. That would be a ridiculous stroke of luck.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 4:50 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

DraftExpress has him at #23 as well

The only site I’ve seen him projected in the lottery so far is DraftNet, but that site is also, at least in my opinion, the least reliable mock out there.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:52 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I’ll have to watch more of this guy — unless he’s really slow or really weak, I can’t understand these ratings. With Blair, he had no ACL’s and was about 6’6" at power forward. Those are pretty serious red flags. Monroe doesn’t have health or size issues, and he’s skilled and productive. The Brook Lopez comp is decent, but at least Lopez was taken in the Top 10 and many projected him to go Top 5.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 5:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Anywhere in the late lottery, he's going to be a steal

No way does he slip that far. If he really, truly was low on people’s boards, his agent would have him work out head-to-head. No way is Monroe going to look like a stiff in that setting.

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 7:25 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

true dat

thoughts?

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 26, 2010 11:16 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I also think there’s a bit of a mob mentality involved, where if a couple respected scouts get down on a player, the rest follow suit.

Partly, too, Georgetown faded late last year, and supposedly Monroe’s passive play was part of that. There was definitely some momentum to that opinion in the popular press, anyway.

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 7:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Monroe is a bit soft...

… and I think that turns scouts off. Monroe could be Bosh if he had Bosh’s fire/mentality, but he doesn’t. But the bottom line is, he’s very skilled, he’s got a pro body, and he produces. Not many guys with those qualities end up as busts. I’d be overjoyed if we got Monroe with Charlotte’s pick. He’d be perfect at hitting cutters out of the high post of the triangle.

by Shogun on Jan 25, 2010 8:28 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Of course, after singing his praises...

Monroe goes for 8 pts and 4 boards against the ‘Cuse. Maybe he will slip to the Bobcat’s pick for us.

Johnson went for 14 pts and 9 rebounds, but I would be wary of taking him too high. There’s something about him i’m just not sure about (the 7 TOs he had tonight might be part of it).

by SoDakHmr on Jan 25, 2010 10:54 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

A couple things about the Martin/Evans stats

first, 1-10 is not 10%. And the first block of stats about team scoring (as has been mentioned) completely ignores what Martin adds as their primary offensive player. A smaller issue, I would rather see TS% with and without Martin because he gets to the line quite a bit and should make up for it a bit in this regard.

I’m still not sold on Johnson. Took way to long for him to “get it” at the college level and I don’t think he can keep up the shooting rate if he backs it up a couple more feet consistently.

Another small issue, how are we the worst defensive in the league by pretty much any account when we aren’t the worst at any of those accounts? Even the one that you say we are the worst team in the league in that particular stat, but then have us ranked as third worst? I’m gonna go out on a limb and say we aren’t quite the worst. Close yes, but not THE worst… especially “by pretty much any account.”

by Mplax on Jan 25, 2010 12:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Admittedly I need to watch a lot more of Johnson, but I’m with you in being leery about him. I’d be pretty sad if we miss out on Turner by a spot and he’s the consolation prize.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 1:19 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Yeah

I probably came off a little hard on him. I wouldn’t be distraught in getting him, but there is a 0% chance that I take him over Turner unless he just destroys everybody on offense for the rest of the year/tournament, all while showing signs of being able to play NBA defense.

by Mplax on Jan 25, 2010 1:23 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Eh. I have yet to read anything that points to him being a good defender beyond block/steal stats. I’m more interested in guys play thorough, correct D than guys who put up block/steal #’s.

Not saying I dislike him, but the dropoff in my mind from Turner to him seems pretty huge.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 3:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

6:00 on ESPN

watch him take on fellow lottery prospect Greg Monroe.

by Andy G on Jan 25, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Oooh, good game. Thanks for the heads up. If only I could get my dual DVR tuner working again I’d actually have something to do while the GF watches the Bachelor. Ugh.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Tell her she can't watch The Bachelor

Stand up to her, man!

Free Alando!

by Auswolf on Jan 25, 2010 3:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I pick my battles, my friend. Such concessions mean I get to watch Wolves games whenever I want :)

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 4:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Which will soon be about

as often as Vikings games?

by Mplax on Jan 25, 2010 5:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hitting 3 pointers opens up middle for Jefferson, Love, Flynn penetration.... blocks help us "big time" with Jefferson/Love lack of athleticism...

Think Johnson has the athleticism to play good defense.

Article also says he is “very unselfish” - focused on winning. Guys like that will focus on defense.

by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 25, 2010 3:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

It's definitely a stats thing

He’s a “good defender” in the way Amare Stoudemire is a “good defender”. He gets “defensive” numbers on isolated plays, but when you watch him, you realize he’s frequently out of position, doesn’t stop the ball or double team effectively, and often misses rotations.

A portion of that can probably be fairly attributed to Syracuse switching from a zone defense to a man-to-man defense this season, but as a whole, Johnson really isn’t a very good defender. He has the tools to be, without question, but the mental part of it is really lacking right now. He’s weak on the fundamentals.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:01 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I definitely think he can become a good defender

I’m not real concerned about that, at least in a long term perspective. Just commenting on the discussion.

What I am concerned about with Johnson is his lack of isolation/ballhandling skill. He’s not a guy you can really give the ball to and having him create a whole play out of nothing. He’ll catch the ball in motion, take maybe one or two dribbles, and get up a shot…and that’s about the extent of his ability. That’s a problem for a team that needs a go-to wing, because by in large, Johnson needs his scoring opportunities set up for him.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Well, mainly I'm looking at the ppg mark...

….and granted we are 3rd worst in that regard, but the Warriors and Suns both play faster paces then us, so if you adjust those numbers for the pace, we basically tie both of them in opp ppg.

But also, if you compile all of that and “average” off how bad we are in each individual category into one net stat. For example, the Suns only give up a 61% FG% at the rim; the Warriors only give up a 51% assist rate at the rim. Etc etc

We’ve also gotten worse as the season has gone on. We’re giving up an average of 110ppg in January, including three games of giving up over 120.

It’s not good. But ya, my “worst defense” comment was intended to be taken in an “all things considered” context.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 1:59 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Shouldn't points per 100 possessions be the bottom line then?

Remember that the wolves play at a pretty fast pace too. According to 82games, the Warriors, Pistons, Kings and Nets give up 110 points per 100 possessions, the same amount that the Wolves give up. The 76ers, Grizzlies, and Suns give up 111 points per 100 possessions, making them even a little worse than the Wolves. The Raptors have the worst defense of all the teams I scanned, they give up 113 points per 100 possessions. The Wolves are bad defensively, but they have a lot of company.

by oblivionspocket on Jan 25, 2010 2:24 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

January numbers are "suspect" in my view. Jefferson and Love pulled in mid-third quarter in a couple of games. Love pulled early in a couple of more games. Love also missed a couple of games due to illness.

See the December numbers I posted above.

We were 13th for “in the paint” points given up in December. Thats the last month, we played Jefferson and Love together consistently.

by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 25, 2010 3:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Just think

if they were playing a full game and the other teams were the ones that were injured or tanking! It would probably be our best January ever!

by Mplax on Jan 25, 2010 5:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Never mind the fact that Love was pulled in several of those games for a reason

Namely, that those teams were going small at the 4 and he was getting torched at the 3pt line.

This is where the whole “points in the paint” thing doesn’t hold any water. If you defend the paint but you let the other team shoot a ridiculously high percentage from 3 (I think Eric in Madison pointed out), you’ve actually HURT yourself much worse. So, yes, let’s have KLove sag in the paint — meanwhile teams will go small on us and drain 3s on us so we won’t be able to play KLove and AJ at the same time, because they are both shorter than average for their positions and below average defensively. I think that’s what the data shows, and Oceanary shows why in this post.

I like Love a lot, but right now he has a real issue with quicker 4s (most of them are actually taller than him too) that can shoot the 3. Anyone who saw him against Orlando or Indiana saw that.

He’s certainly not the only problem in that regard. But Jefferson now has a pretty large body of work on the wolves showing that he’s not a defensive difference maker and this team sorely needs at least one more on the perimiter (besides Brew) and at least one in the paint.

by Sterno on Jan 25, 2010 5:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

What stats are you talking about with Rose and Ty Thomas?

I’m at a loss to know why you went out of your way to imply that Thomas-over-Rose was somehow an example of misleading stats. By either the basic counting stats (per game, per 36, whatever; take your pick) or the “advanced” ones, not many people would say Thomas is superior. I’m not sure who would, actually….

By “the numbers,”

Rose has played a ton more, shoots better in all areas of the game, has a higher PER and higher “win shares” across the board, is above 100 on offensive and defensive ratings (ORtg/DRtg) where Ty is below 100…. The two of them do what they’re meant to at their positions: Rose gets a high assist percentage, Thomas boards. One could maybe point to a couple of outlier stats where Thomas is better (he gets more steals).

The basic “per game” stuff doesn’t come out in Thomas’s favor either. Not at all.

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 2:12 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Advanced stats

A net compilation of production and on court/off court differential.

By that statistical measure, Tyrus Thomas is a net +5.1…..Rose is a net +1.3

http://www.82games.com/0910/0910CHI.HTM

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 3:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Uh, every other "advanced" stat has Rose clearly superior.

Is there any “stat head” at all who would base his or her opinion of the two players on that “simple rating” column on 82games? I’ve never seen anyone even mention it here before.

What you said wasn’t about that specific number, though. What you said was:

It’s an odd love/hate relationship there, since statistically, Ty is their second best player (better than Rose by the numbers which….is probably a good example of how the stats can be deceptive).

And that’s just not true. It’s, uh, “deceptive,” to use your word.

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 3:29 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The 82games formula works like a complex +/- equation

Essentially how much does any given player help or hurt his team when he’s on the floor.

The formula is also very similar to that used by Wayne Winston, who rates Luol Deng as the second best player in the NBA overall, for largely the same reason that Thomas is rated above Rose in 82games….the Bulls are overwhelmingly better when he’s on the floor.

It might be poorly worded on my part….it’d be more accurate to say Thomas has the second biggest impact on the Bulls….so if that’s the issue than I apologize.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 3:45 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

According to Wagesofwins

at the halfway mark this year,
Derrick Rose = 1.6 wins produced,
Ty Thomas = 1.3 wins produced in less than 30% of Rose’s minutes.

In wins produced per 48 minutes,
Ty Thomas = .148 (Damien Wilkins = .138)
Derrick Rose = .053 (Ramon Sessions = .049)

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 25, 2010 4:18 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

For further context

KLove is the second best per48 player in the league, only behind Marcus Camby.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 25, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Not a real big fan of wins produced...

….I don’t really trust that formula, because I think it leads people to make false conclusions about how a certain player stacks up with his teammates.

For example, with the Bulls, it’s ranking Joakim Noah and John Salmons above Derrick Rose, and in terms of who’s actually most important or just the best player on that team, that’s totally false. Rose is by far the best player they have.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

So you think

that Jonny Flynn might be a better player than his wins produced figure suggests? Or at least not so precipitously bad when compared to Sessions?

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 25, 2010 4:36 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I'm not saying it's completey inaccurate...

…just that it doesn’t seem completely accurate either.

I mean, I guess you could make the argument that Jonny has won us more games than Ramon, since a couple of our wins are tied to Jonny erupting in the scoring column, whereas Ramon doesn’t stand out in any one way in those wins.

But more what I’m saying is I think the wins produced stat doesn’t accurately reflect who the most important player is on any given team. John Salmons isn’t more important to the Bulls and Derrick Rose, Paul Pierce isn’t more important to the Celtics than Garnett, Lamar Odom isn’t more important to the Lakers than Kobe Bryant….it’s just examples like that that happen pretty consistently throughout their rankings that just don’t add up, sometimes from something as simple as a common sense perspective, y’know? Kobe Bryant is a much bigger key to the Lakers winning than Odom.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:46 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

but I find it difficult to argue against people who believe that these stats are the end-all. I do appreciate that they give me pause to reconsider things, though, like Damien Wilkins is rated (by wins per 48 min) the second most productive Wolf after Love. That kinda fits my sense of him on this team – that good things happen when he’s on the floor – but his stats are really pedestrian. I believe Flynn does some good things, but not enough to offset some spectacularly bad things (cough, defense, cough). Sessions does look more like Wilkens in his impact, though. The only other thing I’ll say about Odom or Salmons/Noah is that I can’t help but think the halo effect is helping them, in that they’re playing with certain other players that allow them to produce more. So yes, Kobe’s the linchpin, but Odom cleans up on this metric (just like Rodman was more valuable than Jordan).

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 25, 2010 4:53 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I does have a lot to do with how you read them

John Doe made a good point to me the other day when I got on Winston’s case for saying Luol Deng is more of an MVP than Kobe, that the stat itself is just pointing out that the Bulls would be worse without Deng than the Lakers would be without Kobe. What Wayne said based on that conclusion was his own interpretation.

Stats can be a tricky thing. Like they say in marketing, you can make the numbers look just about any way you want them to if you frame them the right way.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 4:57 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

but I find it difficult to argue against people who believe that these stats are the end-all.

See, but what was asserted here was simply that “statistics” made Ty Thomas look like Chicago’s second-best player. And frankly, I have trouble believing there’s any one person, true stats believer or not, who believes “these stats” show that at all. Nobody’s asserting it, but Oceanary (bless him for the huge write-up and all) is using the non-existent assertion as an example of how “stats are deceptive.” Strange to read it, and that’s why I asked.

Stats are tools. They let you ask interesting questions. Here I think Oceanary was using them to take up a hobby horse argument instead of asking such a question, and he happened to choose the wrong spot to try to score his point.

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 7:33 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Nice

Never heard of a ‘hobby horse argument’ before, but I like it. For what it’s worth, this comment sums up my own personal beliefs quite well (when I’m not messing around playing devil’s advocate or otherwise trying to stir the pot):

Stats are tools. They let you ask interesting questions.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 26, 2010 11:19 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rose isn't the best player on that team yet

He’s absurdly athletic and is a solid passer. That said, he can’t shoot and is a pretty bad defender. He’s likely/potentially their best player in the near future – he’s their most talented, let’s say – but I’d say Noah is their best player so far. He’s a fantastic rebounder and defender as well as a quality passer. Also, his ugly jump shot isn’t nearly as problematic since he’s a center. I’d say he’s their MVP just because of his defense.

The one thing that confuses me about that forumula is that it values Salmons (who despite his awful start is still an underrated player) above both Noah and Rose. I don’t see anything that proves true about that.

by nja700 on Jan 25, 2010 7:51 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I suppose in an "all things considered" sense...

….that factors in overall skillset and intangibles like experience, Kirk Hinrich is probably the best player the Bulls have. Or maybe Luol Deng.

I think though, that in terms of impact, Ty Thomas and Rose are the two players that power the Bulls more than anyone else.

It’s probably fair to say that Rose’s statistical value gets hurt some by sharing duties with Hinrich, who’s a much more well-rounded player.

Thomas though is just far and away their biggest impact big man. Certainly a clear superior to Taj Gibson, and he makes a bigger defensive impact than Noah and Miller as well.

What’s really intriguing to me about Ty is he makes this impact with really very little actual coaching or refinement. He’s just that natural on the defensive end. So if he were to join a team with a real development plan and real coaches to work with….I mean, think of the player he could be if he had say, Gregg Popavich teaching him some real fundamentals and discipline.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 8:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Check 'em out

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/pcm_finder.cgi?request=1&sum=0&p1=rosede01&y1=2010&p2=thomaty01&y2=2010

"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."

by feral on Jan 25, 2010 3:32 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Reliance on stats

Stats are a tool, not the final say, in the analysis of anything. That said, I truly do appreciate all the work people here and elsewhere put into accumulating them so folks can have these discussions. And, once again, another excellent weekly prowl by Oceanary. Your efforts should not go unrecognized.

by ogishkemuncie on Jan 25, 2010 5:37 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I agree, on the topic of stats and these posts. The NBA is, frankly, impossible to quantify. Stats help you get a picture of things your eyes don’t tell you, but you need both advanced metrics of many different types and your eyes to tell the whole picture. That’s the beauty of this game.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 7:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Based on something I read earlier today

NBC is not screwing itself as bad with the O’Brien buyout as it appears, because the alternative was even worse. Apparently, Leno realized the Prime Time 5 Nights a Week thing wouldn’t work, so he had a $150mil buyout put into his contract! Obviously, when confronted with two bad choices, the $35mil looked like a pittance. IMHO, NBC really screwed this up going back to the original agreement with Conan five years ago. Then they compounded by not renegotiating some way to not mess with Leno on the Tonight Show, which was one of the few things they have had going the last couple years. They should have left Leno alone and overpaid Conan to do the Prime Time thing a couple nights a week (low ratings nights like Friday and Tuesday). Could have used it to buy a few more years with Leno and get the American public more familiar with Conan.

by Rumblebee on Jan 25, 2010 7:12 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

In the short term, NBC is going to get better now...

….simply because Leno should get his old audience back. A classic “back to normal” sort of scenario.

But I think in the long run….I mean, looking at the demographics, Leno’s viewers are overwhelmingly 40 and older, while Conan’s was overwhelmingly in the 18-35 range. So there’s a huge age gap there where I think, as that younger generation gets older and starts dominating the TV viewership numbers (and Leno retires for good…) that NBC is going to have to face the reality that they had the best draw for that generation and threw it away, and really alienated a lot of those younger people to the point they probably won’t tune in to whatever new host NBC finds for the Tonight Show. They’ll all be watching Conan on whatever network he lands with.

by Oceanary on Jan 25, 2010 8:10 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I think NBC did the right thing by putting Leno back on the Tonight Show

I hate Leno – can’t stand listening to him. And I enjoy Conan quite a bit.

However, Conan’s generation will never generate significant numbers at 11:30 – we have too many other options and we’re also alot smarter and know that watching TV every night is unhealthy. So I think from a business standpoint NBC needs to milk that Leno audience as long as they are breathing (another 10 years?). By 2020 they’ll have many other issues and someone else will be running NBC anyway.

For the short term Leno is the right choice. They made a mistake in 2004, not 2010.

by Django Z on Jan 25, 2010 9:35 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

You're joking right

Or do you really think this generation is smarter by watching less TV, while spending hours on the internet, playing video games, and texting while seeing nothing around them….come on!

by Rumblebee on Jan 25, 2010 11:04 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If your college rankings do not change

I see a #4 pick in the Wolves future.

by Rumblebee on Jan 25, 2010 7:13 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

BELIEVE RUMBLEBEE, BELIEVE! Channel positive energies toward the Wolves! We’re due! This is like 4 years now that I’ve hoped and prayed our luck would turn and we would get the pick we deserve, to no avail. It has to happen, but I’m convinced it won’t as long as we keep believing that fate will screw us.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 25, 2010 7:49 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I have two names for you

JR Rider, Christian Laettner…two lotteries that crushed my lottery hope until it gives me a reason to believe. Fool me once….

by Rumblebee on Jan 25, 2010 11:06 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

…shame…shame on you….(thinking)…

…(more thinking)…you fool me you can’t get fooled again.

"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."

by biggity2bit on Jan 26, 2010 11:24 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

That still makes me laugh

thanks for sharing.

We all know that art is not the truth, art is a lie that makes us realize the truth.--Picasso

by uncle rico on Jan 26, 2010 3:27 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

I can't guarantee I'll be thinking positive during the lottery drawing

but perhaps I can hold back the negative thoughts. Bear with me, I was so shaken last night by the names in my head that I could not remember to hit the “Reply” button.

by Rumblebee on Jan 26, 2010 4:05 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Question

Am I the only that thinks that the Wolves should jump into the 76ers dealing like, yesterday? We go after Iguodala and take on Brand, offering back a wealth of expirings and maybe a pick or something. I mean, they seem ridiculously desperate at this point, and doing this would make them one of the top dogs in free agency.

by McCleak on Jan 25, 2010 11:50 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

In 2012-13 the Brand contract peaks at $18 million. Brand is another PF but SHORTER than Al and Kevin at 6'8"

We don’t take Brand’s contract. If we can get Igudala for expirings, of course you do it in a second. But the Brand contract is an albatros.

Brand is averaging 14 pts and 6 rebounds. He doesn’t have any injury related issues.

He is overpaid and overrated.

by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 26, 2010 7:28 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

1) Taking the albatross is the only way the 76ers would play for as little as expirings.

2) He’s coming back from a season ending injury from last season (sound familiar?). Also, he’s already back to his 2007-2008 numbers in everything except rebounding.

3) He’s absolutely overpaid and not part of the long term plans for the Wolves. But he’s not that bad (if anything, he’s been underrated this season), and if the Wolves pulled the trigger I would be shocked if the Wolves were stuck with him for more than a year. And like I said, it’s the price for Iguodala.

by McCleak on Jan 26, 2010 8:56 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If all it takes is taking back Brand’s nasty contract and maybe a high pick to get Iggy, I’d do it. The alternative is entering free agency where we might be lucky to get Rudy Gay for a huge deal. Considering that Iggy is better than Gay, that doesn’t seem like a bad way to use that cap space. Though it lacks 3pt shooting, a Rubio/Iggy/Turner back court would be awesomely fun to watch. And Brand’s way overpaid, but back in the day he was very very good and even now he’s not total dead weight. He’d still be able to give you some solid production even if his contract is huge, and he might start rounding back into form at some point. Something to think about, at least.

When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.

by Xand1 on Jan 26, 2010 10:38 AM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Told ya'll

That the Evans and Martin combination is a disaster.

by College Wolf on Jan 26, 2010 12:22 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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    San Antonio Spurs guard Malik Hairston is fouled on a dunk attempt over the Golden State Warriors' Anthony Tolliver during the second half of an NBA basketball game at the AT&T Center in San Antonio, Friday, March 19, 2010. The Spurs beat the Warriors, 147-116. (AP Photo/Bahram Mark Sobhani)

    Spurs Torch Warriors, 147-116, In Highest Scoring Game Since 1991

    Atlanta Hawks forward Marvin Williams, looks for a shot against Charlotte Bobcats forward Boris Diaw, left, of France, during the first quarter of an NBA basketball game at Philips Arena, Friday, March 19, 2010 in Atlanta. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)

    Johnson Does His Best Jordan Impersonation, Hits Winning Shot In OT

    New Orleans Hornets forward James Posey, left, reaches in for the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Carmelo Anthony looks for a shot in the fourth quarter of the Nuggets' 93-80 victory in an NBA basketball game in Denver on Thursday, March 18, 2010. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski) link

    Nuggets Rout Hornets 93-80

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