FanPost

Prowling the NBA: Jan 24 - It's the NBA show with Conan O'Brien

Who knew NBA players and late night talk show hosts had so much in common? They both sign multi-million dollar contracts to do what they do. They both feud with their teammates and bosses. They can both be bought out.

Hey, they even attended an all star weekend together!

Who knew Dikembe means banana?

Yes, for those who haven't heard (living in a cave..? etc etc), Conan O' Brien has been bought out of his contract with NBC as the host of the Tonight Show, after he and the network feuded over the right position for him and the Tonight Show brand. The buyout is somewhere in the ballpark of $40 million, with a stipulation that Conan cannot host another late night show until September 1.

For the record, I believe Conan will come out far ahead in this. NBC is screwing itself over in the long run.

So like many NBA players will be in the next month or so, Conan will soon be wearing a new jersey. Necktie. Whatever.

We've three weeks to go before the NBA trade deadline comes due, and there's more rumors out there than even O'Brien could shake a cue card at. This week there's trade talk galore...including a compelling reason why the Sacramento Kings should move Kevin Martin....a video breakdown of the NBA's best defense in contrast to the NBA's worst defense (that would be us, in case you hadn't figured it out...), scouting comments on this year's draft, and a chat wrap of David Kahn's live chat with the fans this past week.

But, as has become the weekly tradition for these updates....we start with Agent Zero....

Gilbert Arenas will learn the specifics of his NBA suspension this week:

Two weeks ago, Prowling the NBA raised the obvious question about Arenas' suspension: what do you mean by 'indefinitely'?

Looks like this week, the NBA will be telling us.

Now that the criminal charges against Arenas have been officially filed, multiple NBA sources say that David Stern will specify the terms of Arenas' NBA punishment (as well as Javaris Crittenton's) sometime this week.

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This move by NBA management comes largely at the request (demand...?) of Derek Fisher, president of the NBA Player's Union, who argues that leaving the suspension as indefinite for an extended period of time sets a bad precedent among NBA officials and borders on an abuse of power. The NBA player's union as a whole has reportedly grown very concerned that Stern wants to make the indefinite part of Arenas' suspension indefinite itself.

Fisher addressed the issue with ESPN before the Lakers' game against the Knicks: "I don't know if there is a magic number of a certain amount of time, but I do think it's something we have to keep an eye on, because I don't know if it's about fair or unfair, but if it sets the right precedent to indefinitely suspend someone and just kind of keep it hanging without putting a name or title or number on it and moving on from there."

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"Billy (Hunter, Union director, pictured above) has been consistent with his message and his tone of really kind of waiting until the NBA comes out with what their position will be going forward, and until then we can't respond. But I do know that we're definitely keeping an eye on the indefinite part of the suspension, because I think everyone agrees that there will be a punishment that will fit the crime or the mistake he made, and what that should be, I don't know if anyone knows exactly, but hopefully we'll find out."

Fisher also noted that Arenas' NBA punishment will set the standard for any subsequent gun-related punishments, as Arenas is the first to violate the NBA's gun policy since it was instated in the 2005 Collective Bargaining Agreement.

But the main issue is Fisher and the Player's Union doesn't want 'indefinitely' to be an excuse of inaction by Stern to extend Arenas' punishment far beyond what his behavior should warrant.

"If I was commissioner? Well, I'm not privy what he has to balance, what all is at stake in terms of what message he sends to fans, to sponsors, to team owners. So there's a lot more on his plate to contemplate before he makes a decision. We respect that process, but from a union perspective we have to protect the short term and long-term rights of our members, and when members do wrong things or make mistakes, they'll be rightfully punished, and we're just here to make sure that that doesn't go beyond what it should be under the circumstances."

Arenas, of course, is also awaiting a final federal judgment, scheduled to be made in March.

And speaking of the Lakers, what better way to start the trade talk off than with a rumor surrounding LA and Derek Fisher?

The Los Angeles Lakers, Boston Celtics, and Memphis Grizzlies are interested in Nate Robinson:

And the Celtics have even reportedly made an offer for him.

Robinson has been sensational since Knicks' head coach Mike D'Antoni has let him back onto the court. Nate opened up with a 41 point game against Atlanta on New Years, and has averaged 14 points and 3.4 assists on nearly 50% shooting so far in January.

The Lakers are very concerned about Fisher's declining play and the number of elite point guards the team is bound to run into in the postseason. Fish is averaging just 7 points and 2.7 assists this season, and has shown his age on the defensive end. The Lakers are also not completely confident in Shannon Brown as the backup, and Jordan Farmar's status remains as enigmatic as ever; he plays well and continues to improve, but is reportedly not well liked by Lakers owner Jerry Buss.

The Celtics need depth....any kind of depth....at point guard behind Rajon Rondo. Doc Rivers seems unconcerned about Robinson's diva attitude, with a Celtics' staff member telling Boston radio "Doc thinks he can connect with anyone."

The Grizzlies...can probably be taken out of the equation. Robinson has early bird's rights on his contract this year, and doesn't appear very enthused about leaving New York for Memphis.

Also coming up in LA la land this week...

The Lakers are looking to move Sasha Vujacic and Adam Morrison:

Both would be financial moves aimed at dumping off salary to lighten the Lakers' luxury tax burden (which is quite substantial).

The problem, of course, is finding a team that wants either of them.

Vujacic has been a disaster since signing his new contract extension at the end of the 07-08 season. Since then, Vujacic has averaged just 4 points on 38% shooting, and has seen his minutes cut drastically in favor of Shannon Brown. Vujacic has also shown the habit 'shoot always-pass never' that I've convinced is directly correlated to the name "Sasha" in the NBA, and has replaced his formerly sticky defense with truckloads of Euroflopping, to the point he'll even flop when hit by his own teammate.

Morrison meanwhile has been a disaster long before he got to LA. Stache has been a career 37% shooter in the NBA with both the Lakers and Bobcats, who drafted him. If you can't somehow work your way even into a niche three point specialist with the Lakers, doing nothing but camping on the arc waiting for a kickout from Bryant....well, there's no hope.

Just like there was no hope for Gerald Green after he couldn't make it work with Jason Kidd. Cough cough everyone who told me he was the next TMac...

The chances the Lakers will be able to actually trade either player is almost zero. Even though he's an expiring contract, Morrison's third pick status makes his deal expensive enough that most team won't be willing to match his contract amount financially. Sasha still has a year remaining on his after this season.

The Lakers have tried to move Luke Walton as well, but appear to have given up on that line.

Now moving up to the Lakers' northern neighbors...

The Kings aren't looking to trade Kevin Martin....but they should:

Two rumors have come up this week around Kevin Martin; one to Dallas for Josh Howard, the other to Toronto for Jose Calderon.

The Toronto deal makes a lot of sense, at least on paper. The Raptors get a high scoring shooting guard to replace DeMar DeRozan's rather domestic production; the Kings get a pure point guard they badly badly need.

The reason I say the Kings need a point guard (as opposed to the popular line of thinking that Tyreke Evans already is their point guard) is because I had a hunch based on the difference in the Kings' win/loss record with and without Martin, that the backcourt duo of Evans and Martin was in fact hurting the Kings in a big way.

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Personally, I think it's obvious just by watching the Kings play that they're a lot better without Martin. But this is a site that likes to come at things from a statistics perspective, so as I promised last night, I ran some numbers, and I'd say it's pretty conclusive. The Kings are worse off in every way with Martin on the floor.

Individually, the Kings score more without Martin than with him:

Ex:

Jason Thompson: 10.6ppg with Martin, 15ppg without Martin
Andris Nocioni: 6.4ppg with Martin, 10ppg without Martin
Dante Green: 5.5ppg with Martin, 8.5ppg without Martin
Omri Casspi: 9.6ppg with Martin, 12.9ppg without Martin

Also...

As a team, the Kings score more without Martin than with him:

95.1ppg with Martin, 104ppg without Martin

...or by advanced stats:
106.6 p/100 with Martin, 109.5 p/100 without Martin

Also...

The Kings are vastly superior on defense without Martin than with him:


Give up 117.2 p/100 with Martin, only 110.2 p/100 without Martin

Also...

Tyreke Evans actually facilitates more without Martin than with him:

Tyreke Evans: 4.1apg with Martin, 5.2apg without Martin

Also...

The team as a whole facilitates better (and by consequence, shoots better) without Martin that with him:

50% assist rate with Martin, 53% assist rate without Martin

45.6 eFG% with Martin, 51.4 eFG% without Martin

And...

The Kings flat out win more without Martin than with him:

1-10 with Martin (0.10 win%), 14-18 without Martin (0.44 win%)

The vast majority of Martin's minutes went to Beno Udrih when Martin was out with injury....obviously his numbers are much better without Martin than with him. But more telling is the trend of the rest of the team with and without Martin.

What is happening is, when Martin is out and Udrih is playing, the Kings become a cohesive team unit, with everyone getting involved. When Martin is in, he and Evans are getting their numbers, but the rest of the team is falling flat.

What that tells me is that, as good as Evans has been this year (run away Rookie of the Year in my mind), the real key to the Kings' success is Beno Udrih and his ability to not only play a complimentary role to Evans, but also to get the rest of the team together and operating smoothly. And since Calderon is essentially Udrih with better ability across the board....

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...at any rate, the Kings seem determined to take a whole season to prove what I believe is already crystal clear. They flat out told the Mavs no, even though Dallas has changed its own stance and is willing to deal Josh Howard. But if there was anything there regarding Jose Calderon, I think the Kings are going to ultimately regret not exploring that possibility.

The Houston Rockets, Cleveland Cavaliers and Phoenix Suns also are reportedly tracking Martin.

The Suns are actually rather slim at the shooting guard spot, not that...

Leandro Barbosa is out for at least a month to have wrist surgery:

Barbosa had moved into the starting lineup of late....part of head coach Alvin Gentry's "let's at least pretend to play defense" initiative (he also has been starting Robin Lopez instead of Channing Frye). Richardson will now move back into the starting five, and the Suns are suddenly without a solid backup for the shooting guard spot.

Also, the Cavs have injury issues. And trade issues...

The Cavaliers have reportedly made an offer for David West:

It's more or less the same rumor as their offers for Antawn Jamison and Troy Murphy...just a different target. The Cavs continue to shop Zydrunus Ilguskus' gigantic expiring contract in hopes of landing an above average power forward. They have, in the meantime, moved Anderson Verajao back to the bench in favor of youngster JJ Hickson, as the team feels Verajao is a more versatile option to fill in off the bench at both power forward and center.

The draw for the Hornets is that they have been unable to deal Devin Brown or Morris Peterson, leaving them with a luxury tax bill they don't want to pay. With Ilguskus, they could waive his deal and avoid the payout.

Mo Williams is out at least a month with a sprained left shoulder; Delonte West is day-today with a broken finger:

Williams injured his shoulder Tuesday against the Raptors. West injured his finger against the Lakers, starting in Williams' place.

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The injuries leave the Cavaliers severely depleted at point guard, with only combo guard Daniel Gibson to man the point. Gibson has seen his minutes cut this season as Cavs' head coach Mike Brown showed increasing concern over his lack of defensive focus.

Gibson will be the starter by default now, with the team planning a "point guard by committee" approach, as Mike Brown put it. Anthony Parker and LeBron will both see extended minutes at point guard as well.

The Cavs are discussing signing another point guard, and there are a couple good ones out there.

Point guard #1....

The Pacers are looking to trade TJ Ford:

Ford hasn't played a single game since December 30th, as Pacers' head coach Conan O'Brien...I mean Jim O'Brien...has elected to go with Earl Watson as the starter and AJ Price as his backup. O'Brien halfheartedly gives "defensive issues" and "effort issues" lines when asked why, but the bottom line is basically that Watson and Price can shoot the three ball. TJ Ford can't.

Well...Watson and Price don't shoot it great either. Ford is just way way worse.

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"The ball's in their court," Ford told the Indy Star. "Definitely, I want to play. If I'm not going to play here, if I can go somewhere else and play, then of course. It's a business. It is what it is. I'm doing all the things I'm supposed to do since I'm still on the roster. I'm healthy. I still get my workouts in, my conditioning in. I stay ready. If they trade me, they'll trade me on their own will and power. I haven't said anything. I'm just doing what I'm supposed to be doing."

When asked if he thinks Ford will be traded by the deadline, O'Brien said, "I don't think there's any doubt. He's a quality point guard. He could really help another franchise."

Hmm. Sounds more like Conan (Jim) thinks it's a "fit issue", no?

Point guard #2....

The New Jersey Nets are....not adverse to moving Devin Harris:

They aren't actively shopping him, but no longer do they consider him untouchable. An ESPN report said that the Nets are "no longer sold on Harris as a core piece on the team" and would like to "package him with an expiring contract or two and get a young All-Star in return."

Chad Ford mentioned that there was talk about shipping Harris to the Wizards for Caron Butler, but both the Nets and Wizards have since said neither team has discussed such a trade.

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The main issue for the Nets....and the reason they aren't likely to trade Harris before the summer at least....is that without him, they have basically no point guard. Just journeyman Chris Quinn. And as you all already know, John Wall is basically the only point guard in the entire draft this year....if the Nets trade Harris now and fail to land Wall later, they face the prospect of having no point guard at all next season. Because of that prospect of Harris probably being the Nets' most likely option at point guard for the forseeable future, they seem inclined to keep him and speak well of him for the time being.

"It’s very, very unlikely that we’d trade Devin," said Nets' President Rod Thorn. "I never say never, but it’s very unlikely that he’s going to be traded. I read the same things you do. There was one thing I saw the other day that was just wrong ­— about we were talking to Washington about trading Devin for Caron Butler? We never had one conversation with Washington about Caron Butler."

"We value Devin. We think he’s a terrific player. I don’t see it happening. But again, you know me — I never say I won’t trade anybody — because you never know what anyone’s going to offer you. That’s why you can never speak in absolutes. But we value Devin."

"Point" guard....#3....?

The 76ers are growing increasingly determined to make a trade before the deadline, and are willing to part with Lou Williams to make it happen:

The thought process has been that if the team can't start winning some games....which they haven't....then the Sixers will blow up and start over.

They have already tried to trade Elton Brand and Samuel Dalembert as separate pieces, but have gotten no interest, so they have reportedly opened up the field to include Andre Iguodala and Lou Williams as well.Certainly there will be more interest in a player who can do something like this:

For one, this makes a Tracy McGrady for Andre Iguodala and Sam Dalembert deal seem much more likely. If the Sixers are approaching this as a salary burn, that's the best way for them to do it. Piladelphia will clear $24 million off their payroll over the summer; the Rockets will acquire a star swingman and a good defensive center.

This of course, is partially working from my hunch that Yao Ming won't be playing big minutes anymore, if any at all.

Other teams interested in Iguodala are Dallas...for Josh Howard....and Cleavland...for Big Z.

Ok, now these Grizzlies....they're all over the place with the trade talk...

The Memphis Grizzlies...

A) Are looking at a trade for Miami's Dorell Wright:

This would be basically a financial move on the Heat's part. Trading Wright for a draft pick would get them below the luxury tax line, which is a priority for Heat President Pat Riley at the moment. The Heat feel it's unlikely they will keep Wright beyond this season as it is....again, mainly for financial reasons...so they figure they might as well try and get something for him now and avoid a luxury tax bill in the process.

On the Grizzlies end....and this is something a lot of you noted when we played them last.....they have a terrible bench. Rookie Sam Young is the only player who even remotely comes close to being consistently productive for them off the bench right now.

B) Looking at trading for Utah's Ronnie Brewer:

Which seems like a very very stupid thing for the Jazz to even consider. First, because they spent years before drafting Brewer pining for an athletic wing player like him. And second, because it'd just make more sense to move CJ Miles.

Like the Heat, the Jazz would be motivated into this by finances.

The Grizzlies are shopping their three first round picks for this year's draft, and the main point for both deals appears to be which pick they give up. The Jazz in particular are interested in a second first rounder; they have the rights to the Knicks' pick this year, but might end up having to give their own to us.

It is ironic how winning changes a team's perspective, isn't it? When they were losing, the Grizz wouldn't have dreamed of taking on extra salary for an extra player. Now that they're winning, it's like they can't acquire more talent fast enough.

The Bulls are still looking to make a trade:

And Tyrus Thomas is still their whipping boy...I mean their bait. Kirk Hinrich and Luol Deng are also on the list, but overwhelmingly their efforts are focused on Ty.

It's an odd love/hate relationship there, since statistically, Ty is their second best player (better than Rose by the numbers which....is probably a good example of how the stats can be deceptive). But just by watching him, it's obvious he's better than Taj Gibson, who starts and receives the lion's share of minutes at the power forward spot. Gibson is a very average player in all regards....doesn't hurt the team, but doesn't help either...while Thomas makes a big and very visible positive impact for the Bulls defensively.

Like I said last week, I'd be very interested in acquire Ty Thomas, especially if he can be had for as cheap as it would appear. He can do some absolutely freakish things on the basketball court.

Chicago columnest Nick Friedell fielded questions about Thomas over the week. Here's what he had to say:

I feel like "The Tyrus Question" has become this season's version of "The Ben Gordon Question" from last year. Aside from trying to figure out who the Bulls are going to sign this summer, people want to know what the team is going to do with Thomas. I've said this before and I'll say it again now. There's little doubt that Tyrus is inconsistent and can frustrate fans and coaches alike. But, I think most people forget that he is just 23 years old. 23!

I think the Bulls are kicking all the tires and trying to figure out where they can upgrade and/or clear more space off the books in advance of this summer's free agent class. The rumors have been floating around Tyrus Thomas and Kirk Hinrich for a while and it will be interesting to see what happens over the next month. I would guess that the Bulls will make some kind of deal before the deadline.

And for some news about the Bulls' rivals to the north...

The Detroit Pistons are for sale:

Right. Not the roster. The whole damn team.

The current majority owner of the Pistons is Karen Walker...I mean Karen Davidson...who took over the team in the stead of her late husband, Bill Davidson.

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Davidson issued a one-sentence statement this week, saying, "I'm pleased, as noted by Oscar Feldman (Pistons minority owner), that the limited partners concur in my decision into inquiring about selling the team."

The estate Davidson took over is worth roughly $4 billion, while the Pistons are rated to be worth (according to Forbes) about $479 million....fourth most behind just the Lakers, Knicks and Bulls.

....but seriously....she looks like Megan Mullally....
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Anyway....some random trade talk odds and ends, then onto some NBA business news...

Trade talk notes:

The Warriors are still shopping their entire roster, but specifically Raja Bell, Speedy Claxton, Devean George, and Vladimir Radmonavic.

The LA Clippers are debating what to do with Marcus Camby in the wake of Blake Griffin's season-ending surgery.

The Suns are debating what to do with Amare Stoudemire...whether to trade him now for guaranteed value of keep him and risk him opting out and walking for nothing this summer.

The Blazers are still shopping Andre Miller, and looking for big man help.

The Spurs are considering packaging Roger Mason, Michael Finley, and Matt Bonner for a big addition to their bench.

The Jazz are still shopping Carlos Boozer before his deal expires this summer.

Now the business...

Oklahoma City Thunder owner Clay Bennet has reached a settlement with former Sonics season ticket holders:

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About 1,000 season ticket holders for the former Seattle Supersonics filed a suit against Bennet and his onwership group when the team moved to Oklahoma, the team backed out of a deal that would have allowed them to renew their tickets in 2010 for the same price they paid in 2007, costing them money when they resold the tickets to residents in Oklahoma.

Under the settlement, Bennett will pay out a total $1.6 million to these ticket holders to make up for the loss.

Jerry Stackhouse has signed with the Milwaukee Bucks for the remainder of the season:

Most of you noticed this when we played the Bucks this weekend.

The move is meant to help make up for the loss of Michael Redd to a season-ending ACL injury. Stackhouse was waived in July by the Grizzlies after being involved in the trade that sent Shawn Marion to Dallas and Hedo Turkoglu to Toronto.

Eddy Curry is out six weeks....basically the rest of the season...with a knee injury:

Which is most notable because it all but guarantees the Knicks won't be able to trade him by the deadline, which leaves them in a serious bind this summer.

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If the Knicks want to make good on their plan to sign two max free agents this summer...which is the only way they're going to land either LeBron or Dwyane Wade...their only option now is to move Jared Jeffries.

As some of you noticed this week, Jeffries has been starting and receiving nearly 30 mpg lately. Trust me when I say that's purely a showcase move on D'Antoni's part. Also trust me when I say no one has any interest in a $7 million player averaging 4 points and 4 rebounds.

Next up...defense...

The Charlotte Bobcats play the NBA's best defense, and here's why:

A lot of you have been asking, especially lately, why the Wolves play such terrible defense. Which is completely fair because we do, by pretty much any account, play the worst defense in the NBA.

We are 3rd worst in opponent's ppg

Second worst in negative point differential

7th worst in overall defensive efficiency

3rd worst in opponent's FG% at the rim and last in opponent's assist rate at the rim, meaning we give up more assisted layups and dunks than any other team in the league (also known as no interior defense)

5th worse at opponent's 3pt% and 3pt assist rate (meaning no perimeter defense)

And we've given up over 120 points more than any other team this year

The opponents' points per game stat is the one to really look at, because that's the bottom line, and the two teams "behind" us are the Suns and Warriors....teams whos systems are all but built to intentionally not play defense.

Now, let's take a look at the Cats' defense:

Three things immediately stand out to me in that video:

At the 1:08 mark - Quentin Richardson tries to drive into the paint and gets cut off by a quick double team, which then rotates back to Chalmers, the open shooter.

This is called stopping the ball...forcing the player dribbling it to stop his dribble and thus, stop his drive. The Wolves do not do this. Several times last night, the Bucks' announcers noted the difference between how Brandon Jennings cut off Jonny Flynn, while Flynn let Jennings go flying right by him.

At the 1:30 mark - Wade and Jermaine O'Neal attempt a pick and roll, but are shut down by Diop and Gerald Wallace. Diop shows hard on the screen, keeping Wade from turning the corner into the paint, while GForce gets into the passing lane and shadows O'Neal as he rolls to the hoop. Without that lane open, Wade tries to force a pass to the opposite side of the court and Diaw picks it off.

Again, another set of things the Wolves do not do. For one, our bigs don't show on those screens. The only one who I've seen consistently attempt to is Hollins, who usually shows too hard and ends up with a foul. Love often steps out soft, not cutting off the corner, and half the time his head is turned towards the hoop looking for a rebound of trying to keep up with the guard who went by him. Jefferson doesn't even try. Pech often doesn't even know where the ball is in the first place.

At the 2:00 mark - Classic perimeter rotation on defense. Most of you have already noted, we suck at it. The video does a good job of explaining how the Cats do it right; Augustin and Brown trap the ball, Gerald Wallace rotates to Brown's man, Diaw comes out of the paint to guard Wallace's man.

The faults I see with the Wolves are one of two things: either our wing player (GForce) doesn't make the first rotation to the open wing, or our big doesn't come out of the paint to cover the wing's man.

A lot of you comment how Brewer seems out of position a lot, but look closely and track which player is his actual assignment. Often what I see is Corey making the right rotation to the open man, but no one rotating to his man. The crazy running around you see is actually Corey trying to get back to his own man because his teammates failed to pick that guy up.

One comment I don't see that I think needs to be made is how our bigs often don't step out of the paint to rotate to open perimeter shooters. In the last example I noted above, it was Boris Diaw coming out of the paint to contest the shot out at the arc. If you pause the video at the 2:08 mark, you see that Diaw is at the charging circle when the pass is made, but gets all the way out to the three point line by the time the shot goes up. On our team, that's Kevin Love (not hatin' just lining it up by position)....how often do you see Love or Jefferson or Pech running out of the paint to contest a three pointer? Not often. In Jefferson's case, not ever. In Pech's case, he's usually not even facing the right direction.

I think a lot of fans just see perimeter shots being made and assume it's the perimeter players' fault, but that's not always the case.

It's true we don't exactly have a roster of good defenders....certainly not in the way the Bobcats do. But we also fall very short on fundamental things like stopping the ball and rotating on the perimeter, and that's not acceptable. Whether Rambis isn't teaching it (and I find it very hard to believe he wouldn't teach the basics...) or the players aren't executing it, something needs to be done.

Ok....speaking of Gerald Wallace....it's All Star time....

Nate Robinson, Gerald Wallace, and Shannon Brown will compete in this year's dunk contest:

Robinson is the defending champ, and as I predicted, Shannon Brown will join him. Gerald Wallace is returning for his second stint in the contest, and as reported last week, a dunk-off will be held between Eric Gordon and DeMar DeRozan to determine the fourth contestant.

Laker fans have been relentlessly promoting Brown this year for the dunk contest with the website LetShannonDunk.com

The contest also lacks a certain noteworthy player: LeBron James, who said at last year's contest he'd compete this year.

We know that LeBron will, however, be in the All Star game, because...

The All Star starters have been announced:

They are as follows:

East:

Allen Iverson

Dwyane Wade

LeBron James

Kevin Garnett

Dwight Howard

I'm going to go out on a limb here and guess none of us are particularly surprised by that...

West:

Steve Nash

Kobe Bryant

Carmelo Anthony

Tim Duncan

Amare Stoudemire

Ok....maybe a little more surprising.

For one, Dirk had a 50,000 vote lead over Duncan in the second-to-last balloting return. So that was a comeback victory if ever there was one. Add into that, that the All Star game is in Dallas this year, and well....let's just say Mark Cuban's not going to be real happy about having to change this picture...

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Second, it's debatable whether Nash actually finished with more votes than Tracy McGrady, or if the league intentionally threw out TMac's votes because he's been thrown off the Rockets. Hmm....

There was also some debate about whether Iverson, who's played only 19 games this year total, should accept the starting spot. For his part, Iverson said it was a no-brainer yes, and added, "I just want to thank everybody for their support this season and it's an honor that the fans have voted me into the All-Star Game as a starter. The fans are who make us and make the NBA so popular. This year is even more special because I'll be representing a city and fans that I love and a team that has been such a big part of my life throughout my career."

Alright....let's talk draft....

Draft Watch:

Sports Illustrated did a scouts interview that brought up the names of our favorite players. But before we get to that, two things:

1) S-n-P has another Draft Board topic up, where you can go in depth with draft discussion.

2) A couple notes about a few players.

Stanley Robinson (UConn):

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First, some of you have commented on UConn's Stanley Robinson. I don't have any advanced numbers on him, but I will say this; just by watching him, I think he's going to be a huge impact player on the defensive end, in the mold of Josh Smith or Gerald Wallace. He's got a strong body, he's athletic, quick, a good shotblocker for his size and position, and a smart defender. He's also got a great all around game in terms or scoring and rebounding, and I think his passing ability gets hidden a lot by UConn's ball-dominant guards, Jerome Dyson and Kemba Walker.

Robinson came up big over the weekend with 17 points and 12 rebounds in UConn's upset win over #1 ranked Texas.

JaJuan Johnson (Purdue)

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Another prospect I'd look at is Purdue's JaJuan Johnson. He seems very Chris Bosh-like to me. He's putting up number similar to Derrick Favors and Ed Davis, but is being ranked lower because he's a junior and this is the first time he's been solid on the glass all year.

Neither of these players are guys I'd take at the top. But with the Charlotte or Utah picks...somewhere in say, the 15-25 range....they definitely should be up for consideration.

SI scouting report:

The summary is that John Wall, Evan Turner, and Wes Johnson are the top 3 prospects. The rest are far far behind, with no clear order.

The following are the comments made about each player by the scouts who were interviewed:

John Wall:
Scout 1 - "The only true star I've seen. I thought he was very special when I saw him in person and the way he took command of the game. I didn't expect anything like that. He's a better version of Derrick Rose because his hands are so quick."

Scout 2 - "He's a better shooter than Rose, a better defender than Rose. He doesn't quite have that strength and body that Rose had, but give him a couple of years and he might even be quicker and faster than Rose. He has such unbelievable speed and quickness and length and intensity at both ends of the floor. Let me say he's far from being a perfect player and he has a lot to learn, but he's one of those guys who will be better served to play in the NBA than in college, because the open floor space and the way the NBA is designed will suit him better.

"He has to improve his shot, but he has the makings of a floor general: tough, aggressive, willing to put his neck out and be a leader. He is far from being organized and establishing a rhythm on the court, but he looks like he will be able to do that eventually. At the very worst case, he should become a starting point guard on a top team."

"I've heard guys say he could be Gary Payton (on defense). That's a hell of a thing to say, but he has that type of body and quickness."

Scout 3 - "Wall is up there with Rose, Chris Paul and all of those guys. You get him and you'll have your point guard for the next 10-13 years based on his size, speed, length and basketball IQ. And he can defend. He's not a great shooter, but no one can stop him from getting where he wants to go on the court. And that, for me, is the greatest asset for a point guard, when you can collapse the defense and get into the paint, and then when they have to start helping, they're done. He reminds me of Micheal Ray Richardson -- that guy was the best; he was Magic Johnson when he played. That guy could get 15 rebounds and 15 assists, and he wasn't a great shooter, but he could get 20 every night. That's who Wall reminds me of."

Evan Turner:
Scout 4 - "Wall and Turner are Nos. 1 and 1a. Turner is going to be an All-Star. I have great faith in that. His size, his approach, his style of game -- all are suited to the pros."

"You can see he's a guy who enjoys playing. His ability to improve his shooting will control his greatness. He's like Oscar Robertson. He can have that type of impact. Oscar wasn't a guy people worried about when he went behind the pick and launched the bomb -- you almost preferred him to do that -- and that's how it is with Turner."

Scout 2 - ""Evan Turner is the most interesting guy in the whole draft, because a lot of guys feel that way about him and really like him. And then there are a lot of guys who absolutely don't like him. I'm wrestling with it.

His game is based on strength and aggressiveness, he's a very skilled guy and he's in relentless attack mode from the opening tip. How is that going to work in the NBA if he's playing out of control? He's a guy who has had triple-doubles including turnovers.

"But the other side of it is that you could put him at the point and, if he refines his skills, you could wind up with a guy who is bigger and tougher than Brandon Roy -- like Brandon Roy on steroids, a beast. Now, part of Roy's beauty is that he never tries to do what he can't do, he plays within himself and he's a smart player. This kid is like Roy unleashed, so watch out because he plays on emotion and he can be his own worst enemy. No matter what, he's not going to slip far because of all that talent."

Scout 1 - "He's a point guard in our league, or a point-forward. He has the ball in his hands for Ohio State 90 percent of the time. He's strong, he can really, really pass, he's a great rebounder and he's tough. He's not a great shooter, but he can score 20 a night on tip-ins and mid-range jump shots. Why shoot threes if no one is able to stop him from 15 feet and in? If he works at it -- and everything I'm told is that he has a great work ethic -- he can learn to make enough threes and become a great player. He's a monster."

Scout 4 - "He has personality, charisma, he's a big guard who has no fear driving to the basket. He has to improve his outside shot, but he can do anything on the floor."

Wesley Johnson:
Scout 1 - "Wesley Johnson has been the surprise of the year. He has a lot going for him -- size, skills -- and he's the reason behind Syracuse's 18-1 season. He has the potential to be very special, and I'm told he has a good basketball mind. At the end of the day, he can be a 20-point scorer, a good rebounder and a passer."

Scout 2 - "He's way, way behind defensively. Syracuse is actually trying on defense this year; their zone is the reason they're doing well. For a college team it's a great way to guard, but for us it doesn't help. You watch some guys in college and you can see they help to make the zone better, and then you watch other guys like Johnson and it looks like they're trying to hide in the zone, and that if you pulled him out of the zone and asked him to play man-to-man against NBA players, it could be scary. But I hear he's a great kid and willing to work."

Scout 3 - "He is Shawn Marion. He's an insane athlete who can make some shots, a much better shooter at the same stage of his career than Marion ever was. He's a little small -- he's 6-7 and slight -- but he can run. Last month, he got 19 rebounds [at Seton Hall], which is a big number at any level, but in the college game it's off the charts. He doesn't have a great handle -- he's a one-bounce player who can get from the wing to the basket. But he's not good in the open court; he's more of a straight-line player who is not very creative."

Scout 4 - "Wesley Johnson is definitely worth talking about. He is a scorer, a complete package -- jack-of-all-trades, master of none. He grades out well in everything except for breaking you down and getting his own shot. A pretty good player."

Now, the concern here with Johnson is that multiple scouts have noted he's not a create-his-own-shot type of player. He needs to be set up. That could be a big problem for us, as we have plenty of those types already. We need a go-to wing scorer who can isolate and score on anyone. It sounds like Johnson isn't that guy.

The rest:
The No. 4 spot is where the scouts started having trouble coming up with names. All agree that Wall, Turner and Johnson will share the top three picks, but Nos. 4 and 5 generate a variety of names with little conviction for any of them.

"I just don't think this is a very good draft," said one team exec who rates Aldrich as a potential No. 4 pick. "There is going to be a group of seven or eight guys who separate themselves, which means that teams will pick for need. The order of teams in the lottery is going to determine who goes where in this draft.

Cole Aldrich and Willie Warren:
"Aldrich is a solid, safe pick as a guy who is going to show up every night. He's big and long, he has good hands, he knows how to play. Is he a go-to guy? Is he going to have the upside to become an All-Star? I don't know. But everybody needs bigs who are long and play hard every night and run the floor, who can catch and finish, who hit their free throws. A lot of it depends on how far Kansas goes this year. But he's already an NBA player -- not flashy, but he's a big man who can do a lot of things."

"If a team needs a big, they'll take Aldrich; if they need a point guard, they'll take Willie Warren. He is talented, he's quick, he can shoot it, and I think he can be a '1.' If he was in last year's draft with all of those point guards, I don't think he would be rated this high. But this year, after John Wall, there is no other point guard. So he is going to benefit from the timing of the draft."

Donatas Motiejunas:
"He's got the talent, the body, the feet. Maybe he should wait one more year before declaring, because he's still too fragile in his upper body. He gets pushed around too easily. But if he can go in the top five in a weak draft, maybe he'll come out. He has good touch with both hands around the basket, he can shoot the three and he loves to play."

The next Dirk, maybe...?

Greg Monroe:
He's not a jumping-jack, but he's a good athlete who rebounds the ones he should get, and he's an average shot-blocker. What he has going for him is that he's one of the best-passing bigs I've ever seen. That makes him a great complementary player if you're looking for someone to blend in."

Derrick Favors:
"He's a very enticing player with length and great hands, and I'm sure he'll go in the top 10. But I wouldn't push to take him. He's one of those guys that you hope the team in front of you takes so you don't have to make the hard decision to pass him up. He's talented, but I haven't seen him play very hard. He should be getting 12 rebounds every night and getting some of them above the square. His motor needs to improve."

So there you have it. That's SI's early take, and the scouts they talked to seemed in agreement on what they said.

I think the consensus here is the same consensus they reached: John Wall or Evan Turner.

David Kahn chatwrap:

If you want to read the whole thing, you can check out FSN's Archive here. I'll just post the most interesting parts.

The main thing is, like the chat participants, you're not going to get anything about free agency or the draft. Kahn isn't allowed to name names and say "we're interested" in the same sentence. It got so bad that, at one point, the moderator had to specifically ask participants to stop asking those questions, which I found pretty amusing (and guess was pretty ineffective)

David-kahn-and-glen-taylor-owner-of-the-timberwolves_medium

OK, welcome to the chat with David Kahn on foxsportsnorth.com! I'm Patrick, your moderator, and I'll be steering this ship. David will be joining us in just a few minutes, so go ahead and start asking your questions.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:23
7:29

[Comment From David KahnDavid Kahn: ]
How is Ricky Rubio progressing in Spain? I have watched him recently, and it looks like his game is really taking off. Your thoughts?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:29 David Kahn
7:30

David says: He's really played well the last month or so. He's been the starting point guard all season for what is arguably the best team in Europe. There's no question his experiences this year will make him more NBA-ready.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:30
7:31

[Comment From David KahnDavid Kahn: ]
Is Nikola Pekovic viewed as trade bait, or a part of this franchise? When do you see him coming over? Thanks!
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:31 David Kahn
7:31

David says: I think he'll come over next season and I should see him play sometime in February. Until then it's hard to be specific about how he fits into our plans.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:31
7:31

[Comment From David KahnDavid Kahn: ]
I have watched a lot of Evan Turner this year, I hope you're watching him as well, because he'd be a perfect fit on the Wolves!
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:34 David Kahn
7:35

David says: I saw Evan Turner play in person last Saturday night at Ohio State. Unfortunately, as you may know, we're prohibited from making any statements on underclassmen so I can't comment beyond that.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:35
7:35

[Comment From BrandonBrandon: ]
What happens if the Wolves get the #1 pick in what most observers believe is the John Wall draft?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:40 Brandon
7:41

David says: We celebrate!
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:41
7:42

[Comment From BradBrad: ]
Do you think that the wolves will make any trades in the upcoming weeks with the trade deadline in Feb.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:42 Brad
7:42

David says: I am not sure yet, but I doubt if we'll do something with our core pieces, as I've said earlier.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:42
7:43

Readers, please hold off on your questions about college players. David can't talk about them unless they've declared for the draft. We want the Wolves' money to go into the roster, not NBA fines, right?! -- Patrick the Moderator
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:47
7:49

[Comment From NickNick: ]
Do you still believe Rubio and Flynn can play together? As in Rubio at the 1 and Flynn at the 2.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:54 Nick
7:55

David says: Yes, or just play together -- I wouldn't necessarily classify them in those terms. They'd be guards playing together.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:55
7:55

[Comment From FelixFelix: ]
I was really wondering about Ramon Sessions role lately... Why did we sign him when he receives so little playing time?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:56 Felix
7:56

David says: With a young, rookie point guard in Jonny, I felt it was necessary to have a quality player capable of starting if Jonny needed more time to grow into the position.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 7:56
7:57

[Comment From SamSam: ]
Will a player's fit in the triangle offense factor heavily into your personnel decisions in the future, or do you plan on fitting the system to the talent available?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:03 Sam
8:03

David says: I am much more concerned with whether the player can play in the full-court running style of play that flows into an offense where you have to use every basketball skill -- shooting, passing, driving, the whole nine yards.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:03
8:04

[Comment From RickRick: ]
Getting longer and more athletic is certainly a goal, but how much weight do you place on Basketballl IQ? Is it inherent, or can it be taught?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:05 Rick
8:05

David says: I think it's mostly inherent.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:05
8:06

[Comment From JballsJballs: ]
Mr. Kahn, Do you have a preference as to drafting a shooting guard or would you rather sign a proven NBA scorer via free agency?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:31 Jballs
8:32

David says: I think it's important for us to see how the NBA Draft order plays out before we make that decision.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:32
8:33

[Comment From RobRob: ]
What player has surprised you the most season on the Wolves in terms of defying your expectations (positively or negatively)?
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:40 Rob
8:41

David says: I think Wayne Ellington is having a better rookie season than I anticipated. I've been very impressed with Kevin Love's all-around game.
Wednesday January 20, 2010 8:41
8:43

So there you have it. About as much as Kahn will say about the things he's allowed to say anything on.

The moral of this week's story: Never sign a contract with NBC. Or the Knicks.

Until next week....