It's that time of year again
by PoorDick on Jan 26, 2010 10:38 AM CST
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Apparently Wolves fans aren't the only losers focusing on the 2010 draft well before the All Star game is played--Our King, Chad Ford has just put up his Mock Draft Lottery machine, which due to lost worker productivity is suspected to be the leading cause of the global economic downturn.
It appears that he has the Wolves' preferred picks as follows:
1. John Wall
2. Evan Turner
3. Derrick Favors
4. Wesley Johnson
5. Ed Davis
As of now, we have a one-in-five chance of getting the first overall pick. Let's hope the Nets get Stoudemire before the trade deadline, and move ahead of Minnesota, giving the Wolves a one-in-four chance at Wall.
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your lucky
I played it three times and got the fifth pick 2 out of 3. I must have McHale’s luck on my shoulders. I ban myself from playing this make believe game!
by GHACAN BLACKSTAR on Jan 26, 2010 12:01 PM CST up reply actions
Can a team BUY a lottery pick? I know teams buy late picks. I'd sure love to buy the #4 or #5 pick to get Wes also....
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 26, 2010 10:48 AM CST reply actions
No
well, theoretically, I supose, but you can’t buy a pick for more than $3 million, and nobody is giving up a lottery pick for that amount.
by Eric in Madison on Jan 26, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
Damnit PoorDick
I ran the machine, we got the 4th Pick and Wesley Johnson, and now I’m weeping at my desk.
This is great
I was just coming to post about this. For the past several years, I’ve had to sit there for like 20 minutes to get the Wolves the top pick. I HATED this damn thing. This morning though, I can’t lose. It’s awesome. And when I don’t get John Wall, I get Evan Turner. This is just an amazing omen, mark my words.
Let's assume
Wolves get 5th pick…and Wes Johnson, Turner, Wall, and Favors are gone… who do they take?
Blasphemy!!
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Jan 26, 2010 11:48 AM CST up reply actions
I think at that point
you have to think about a legit Center prospect like Cole Aldrich or Demarcus Cousins, with Aldrich being the boring and safe pick. Then perhaps we can pick up a guy like Stanley Robinson or Pondexter later in the draft to help fortify the wing/combo forward position with a big-time athlete that can defend and fill the lane on fast breaks.
by Rascal Flatts on Jan 26, 2010 12:15 PM CST up reply actions
I like Henry
not because I know much about projecting NBA talent, but because I like watching shooters. And yes, I was pretty upset when we didn’t pick Curry.
by Steven Ellingson on Jan 26, 2010 12:43 PM CST up reply actions
I’ve read a couple places that Aminu will be an undersized 4. If that’s the case, I’d pass for obvious reasons.
by Blond Ricky on Jan 26, 2010 12:40 PM CST up reply actions
Rubio's older brother Marc
Then they can pay more (combined) money to the family, get Little Ricky over here, and put Marc next to Hollins at the end of the bench.
Let's not forget about Henk Norel...
…as yet another source for Rubio money.
If a year from now
the Wolves haven’t improved their roster through the normal channels, then it’s time to get serious about Rubio. Not only should they draft his brother, but make his dad an assistant, put his mom in charge of team meals, and give his little sister a dustmop and have her sit on the baseline under the hoop.
Ricky would have the whole family involved, getting paid way more money than what he can be making in Spain.
I think their sister's(?) legs
are bigger than both of theirs… and then her arms look like Corey with a bit more muscle.
I say we trade down to take Xavier Henry...
…and use the asset gained to move up with one of our other picks to land (in order of preference) Motiejunas/Monroe/Aminu/Cousins/Patterson?
According to PoorDick's list, it's Davis
Ford said in his chat today that the mock draft is based on reporting what many teams have told him and not on his analysis of their needs and the players. He said the top teams have given him the information, which would have to include the Wolves.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jan 26, 2010 5:15 PM CST up reply actions
With the 5th pick, I'd take
Cole Aldrich.
Centers with his size and ability always go top 5, so it really wouldn’t be a reach.
That's probably what the FO thought
about the Rubio scenario last year. Then it happened and they were scrambling. FO must plan for all possibilities…
First two runs...
2nd = Evan Turner
1st = John Wall
3rd run…5th (NO!) = Ed Davis.
Chad Ford actually sounded somewhat objective...
…about the Timberwolves in his insider article, “Would every team take John Wall?”
The Wolves used two lottery picks on point guards last season, so why would they take a third this year? That’s easy: Jonny Flynn and Ricky Rubio aren’t John Wall. You’d have to combine their talents (adding Rubio’s size and floor vision to Flynn’s energy, athleticism and scoring knack) to equal Wall.
If the Wolves are fortunate enough to land Wall, then Rubio and Flynn will become valuable trading chips. Both players should be able to fetch a high price — either another lottery pick or a young prospect — to help the Wolves fill their holes at shooting guard and center.
Though I believe it’s a bit disparaging towards Rubio’s talents relative to Wall’s, he at least doesn’t sounds like David Kahn stole his puppy. Color me shocked.
In this scenario
Draft Wall, then trade Flynn and enough to land the 2nd pick (probably both extra first rounders and Pekovic in some kind of three or four team deal, perhaps also using cap space as leverage). . Come away with Wall and Turner to add to Jefferson, Love, and Brewer. Let it play out another year, if Wall is the real deal then trade Rubio when his value is peaked to add the final piece.
I doubt we could get the second pick..
Without giving up Rubio in the deal. If we get Wall though, I’d be all for that.
I pretty much get Wall or Wes everytime
Every once in a while I get Turner or Ed Davis. Grrrrrr
by TheEvilProfessor on Jan 26, 2010 1:26 PM CST reply actions
Isn't 5th the worst pick we could get?
Assuming we finish with the 2nd worst record we could only end up picking 5th if 3 teams that aren’t NJ jump us in the lottery.
Right now yes
But after the spring tankathon, wolves may have 3rd or 4th worst record. If so, it becomes increasingly likely that they would pick 5 or even lower.
Ok that makes more sense
I still don’t think other teams will do worse than us unless either Philly or Washington make a big trade to shed salary and start rebuilding. And plus, we can tank just as good as anyone else…. we just need to resign Mad Dog.
Based on this...
Would a trade for Iguodala and Dalembert be worth it if the result was that the Sixers moved up enough to get a player the Wolves wanted?
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jan 26, 2010 5:17 PM CST reply actions
That really seems to be the one
that’s most realistic, and makes the most sense, isn’t it? The players sure make sense for the Wolves, but Iggy makes a pretty good chunk of change . . .
Whenever I look at getting those two, though, I check the Wolves current roster against what the Sixers have (and that obviously didn’t work with Sam and Iggy), and I don’t see a huge gap in talent between the two teams (assuming Brand is healthy), so, unless the two Sixers just need a change of scenery, I’m not sure the wins gained will be worth the money spent.
I think that a guy like Kahn...
…would be thinking that salary levels are gonna drop over the next few years. Who knows, maybe Taylor is whispering in his ear too.
If that is the case, and if Taylor has any insight due to his position on salary issues, then they will definitely look to improve via the draft. Not via trades for players that will be seen as overpriced in 2 years, even if they are not now.
Taylor has probably let him know to stay away from big contracts
with more than a year or two left.
Also wouldn’t be surprised if the owners want an extra option year with rookie contracts, perhaps with an incentive that a junior in college can get out of the extra year.
The Sixers were a lot more competent last year with Dre Miller (without Brand). A good PG likely did a lot for them, especially Iguodala who is asked to do a lot more with no legit PG on the roster.
As far as talent, Brand is shell of his former self and well below Al comparatively. Love is a big step above Speights. Thad Young has not developed as hoped and looks like an undersized 4. Lou Williams isn’t a PG. Allen Iverson is a filler. Jrue Holliday has some decent upside, but is far behind our current PG developmentally.
As far as contracts and the new CBA. It’s seems as though there are too many long term contracts out there for the owners to not provise a way to grandfather them in as far how they count against the cap/tax. Maybe half the teams have a long contract that would weigh them down significantly. Would half the teams agree to something that would limit them so much?
Regardless, I understand the idea of not wanting to take on a long term contract when we’re still in the beginning of rebuilding. That’s why Caron Butler is a name that’s been growing on me. He nearly 30, but he’s only got 1 year left and would fill a huge void. Throwing out this year, he’s been a good 2 way player for his career. I take his contract with the thought that a team is always in flux and it could be flipped next year as a valuable expiring with us a year further into rebuilding. It’s too hard to line up a perfect core of talent all the same age group. I’ll take a little older guy with less financial risk and plan on another deal in the future.
With long term contracts
the way the NHL dealt with them was to cut the value of each contract by 10 or 15%, so all players had to give up something.
Played once...
and got Evan Turner – done!
BTW – the Hornets traded Bobby Brown to the Clips for a conditional 2nd rounder. Four teams in less than a year – must think he’s QRich or something.
BBTW – Jim Thome has reportedly signed with the Twins – ummmm, what about Kubal???
Kubel still plays as DH against right handed pitching
Thome is the big bopper off the bench…they had no one to use late in games last season against right handed pitching. He can pinch hit for guys like Punto or Harris. Also, Kubel wants to be in the field more, and I think Gardy is willing to let him on occasion. Games with a tough right handed starter, they can DH Thome, put Kubel in left, the give either Delmon Young or Cuddyer the day off and have their bat on the bench.
yuck on this move
I like Thome, dude is too old. Once again the Twins play it cheap. I hope Mauer calls them on their cheapness and says see ya in New York. They have a new stadium and a tremendously wealthy (recently dead) owner, and all they do in the offseason, an offseason where they are supposed to convince Mauer that they are serious about winning a world series, is sign Jim Thome? Yuck.
by littleboxes on Jan 27, 2010 11:10 AM CST up reply actions
Hmmm
well the offseason is by no means over yet.
And personally, I enjoyed the article on ESPN today that said Cashman couldn’t afford Damon anymore. The quote was something like, “His talent has outpaced my ability to pay him.” Hahahahahaha. First of all, I call (nonsense). I think he just wants to make the Yankees look a bit better to the rest of the baseball world (not that this will help…). Second of all, the Yankees deserve it.
I don't know about his big board for the Wolves
I’d go:
1) Wall
2) Turner
3) Johnson
4) Favors
5) Aldrich
Heck, I personally might even put Aldrich ahead of Favors, but that might not be the case with the Wolves’ front office.
I'd go wall, Turner, Johnson, Aminu (if he's a SF) and then Aldrich, Henry.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 26, 2010 9:22 PM CST up reply actions
Keep in mind that Brewer and Turners games are both mostly driving to the hoop. Neither is a great 3 point shooter, unless Brewer maintains his ridiculous January 3 point shooting.
So we have Jefferson and Love both inside players, Brewer and Turner, both like driving to the hoop. We need at least two good 3 point shooters on the starting 5, and Love doesn’t count because Rambis doesn’t like his big guys shooting 3’s.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Jan 26, 2010 9:19 PM CST reply actions
If Rambis doesn’t like, he better be prepared to make himself uncomfortable. If Love can hit the 3, he should take a bunch of them. It’s not as if the Wolves have many defense stretchers. Makes no sense to keep Love from shooting just because Rambis doesn’t like it.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Ah, but that's Rambis.
Love may not shoot threes or get adequate playing time.
Flynn may not run pick and roll.
The offensive system must be the triangle so we can run everything through our wings rather than a point guard or a big man.
Pretty much anything he can do to make the system play to our weaknesses, he will do.
Rambis is a genius
At least I hope so. Much of this year makes little sense unless you view it through the lens of the “long term development.” Of course, there’s no way to evaluate Rambis’ performance when all goals appear to be long term. If he’s not a genius, hopefully he’s learning something about coaching this year. Maybe the Wolves can hire Phil Jackson as a consultant if he retires in two years.
by littleboxes on Jan 27, 2010 11:13 AM CST up reply actions
That's too broad
It’s also true that the uptempo style plays into Love’s rebounding and passing skills, Flynn’s ability to push the ball in transition, and Brewer’s ability to run the floor. And further, none of these guys are good enough to be counted on if they don’t shore up some of those weaknesses. Maybe that’s a practice issue, but it’s not like changing the system is going to lead to a .500 season.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jan 27, 2010 3:24 PM CST up reply actions
Fun game to watch.
Especially because as great as Downey was, it sure is easy to see how well Wall will do in the pros.
Didn't watch until the last couple minutes...
But caught the comment (paraphrased) “Spectacular individual performance from Devan Downey!” right as they showed his 9-for-29, 30 pts, 3 asts. I’m sorry, was his defense fantastic? 9-for-29?? I’ve watched some Downey highlights, and I know — especially being 5’9" myself — that he does some amazing things for someone his size. However, I cannot come up with a way that 31% high-volume shooting translates to spectacular. I’m sure he makes for the best ESPN headline, but I gotta believe there were a number of other factors contributing to the upset.
Just some clarification
if you just click on the link above, you get the Lotto generator with the teams listed according to their current probability, defaulting the Wolves at #2 and picking Evan Turner. You have to run the thing once more to get a randomized output.
According to probability
We then actually have the largest possible chance of NOT getting the second pick, therefore NOT getting Evan Turner. hrmm. Probability makes me sad.
by Cedarpenguin on Jan 27, 2010 12:10 PM CST up reply actions
I really like
Xavier Henry for Utah. Which it seems as if he will be available to them. Also, Patterson to the Bucks just seems like something that will happen. He just seems like that entirely unenticing talent that the Bucks seem to go for. Of course, Jennings kind of breaks that mold. Anyone know of a website that shows the probability after each pick goes? Like if NJ got the first pick what are the odds for us getting the next pick? And I know how to figure it out, but I just want to know if there is something that has already done it for us.
I just ran it and gave John Wall to OKC… f*ck!
I ran it and it sent Wall to Sactown
Ugh. A Wall/Evans backcourt would be sick. No way Stern lets that happen while Sacto isn’t coughing up for a new arena.
by TheEvilProfessor on Jan 27, 2010 1:41 PM CST up reply actions
Golden State, Washington, and Indiana
don’t need wings if my last hundred spins are accurate. Which means that the current #3,#4, and #6 would all pass on Turner or Johnson in favor of the best available power forward. Now that assumes that Mr. Fords reporting is accurate, but in this I see no reason to doubt it. What that means as far as I have observed is that we have an incredibly good shot at one of those two players. In fact the only recurring situation where we don’t get at least Johnson, is if both the Wolves and the Nets fall out of the top three, and the 76ers get in.
I’d rather see the Warriors grab one of the wings over Favors and Davis. Neither one of the PF prospects does much for me at all.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Are you sure?
I get this nagging feeling that Nellie would be good at developing high-upside PFs with defensive abilities.
I’m much more excited about Davis than Favors, but there’s something about Favors in particular that scares me to death. And I’d definitely take Turner ahead of Davis, probably Wes too.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
I think Favors
is going to be vastly underrated by the time the draft comes along. And by vastly I mean about 4 or 5 spots. He’s a freshman accepting the role of second fiddle on a decent team. He hasn’t produced like we would all like to see, but I think he will make a few teams look very dumb for passing on him in a couple years.
Very possible, and maybe I’m just not sure what I’m looking at when I see him. He’s definitely an athlete and knows how to rebound, but I really just don’t know what else to make of him. Anyone seen more than a couple of his games? I’d love some more thoughts on the guy.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
Only saw one game
But he’s definitely taking a backseat to Lawal, who looks like a longer-wingspan Reggie Evans (hopefully without the nut-grabbing). The one thing that I think scouts see with him and not with Davis is that he has a frame that can add more weight, where Davis is skinny and looks like he’ll stay skinny.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 3, 2010 9:17 AM CST up reply actions
I'm actually kinda interested in what'll happen to the Warriors
When Nellie is no longer the coach. It’ll be fun to see how a roster that is made for Nellie’s style of play will be changed/and or used differently in the future. In that case guys like Favors might make more sense. Hopefully you read my post as jokingly Randolph-related.
Yeah, I definitely caught that. I love what he’s done for Randolph as a player, not because it’s helping the team win today, but because it’s going to make Randolph better in a few years. I’m still waiting for him to become Marcus Camby meets Josh Smith and I think the quick hook is helpful for that.
I’m not really sure that the current Warriors’ lineup is tailor made for Nellie. It seems like management is already starting the transition and just needs a couple more rotation bigs to be in complete “traditional roster” mode. Our best lineup is Biedrins (if he ever gets right)/Randolph/Maggs/Monta/Curry which looks very traditional and outside of the backcourt, is pretty big. A bench of Turiaf/Wright/Buike/Morrow/CJ doesn’t do much to dispell that either, especially if they hang on to the D-Leaguer Tolliver, who has looked great so far. I’m anxious to see who they replace Nellie with next year, and yeah, I’m confident this is Nellie’s last year. He’s getting the record and riding off into the sunset.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
I guess you're right on the not tailor-made part
This year especially. Maybe I’m thinking of the style of play itself moreso than the roster. The team does seem to be shifting away from the “a bunch of out-of-position wings shoot 3’s and one big guy rebounds” template that used to be popular there. Honestly, getting rid of Captain Jack and Baron was a plus in my mind. You guys have lots of athletic bigs and quick guards, with a few guys that are really good 3-pt shooters. I guess I just have this image of a talented mish-mash stuck in my head when I think of them.
The more I think about it now, the more strange and interesting that team is. It’s actually pretty loaded with talented athletes. I guess the (non-Nellie) problems with the team are that they need a more defined identity (outside of get the hell out of Monta’s way), improved health, and just general cohesiveness and development. Maybe there’s a lack of emphasis on team defense (Jennings’ 55, anyone?), but they have the horses to be good on that side in addition to their known scoring abilities.
It’s actually kinda depressing that a team with a reputation for so much dysfunction and poor management has a pretty sizable lead on us in terms of overall talent depth and roster balance. Not only do the T-Wolves lack a talent-balanced roster, we also lack overall talent and talent that fits together. Here’s hoping Kahn’s use all of the assets we’ve accumulated and continue to accumulate addresses these problems.
Honestly, I think this rosters ideal identity is pester, rebound, run. That’s a pretty dang stealin’ backcourt, a super fast starting 5 (again, once Biedrins gets right), and 4 of the 5 starters are above average rebounders for their positions. The halfcourt leaves much to be desired on both sides of the ball, but that’s a team that can push the tempo and get moving, and since everyone outside of Maggette is a willing passer (though he’s getting better at that), easy buckets are plausible, even if it’s not a great shooting team.
They should be running the pick and roll to death on offense with Monta and Biedrins while running off-ball screens to get Curry open for the potential kick outs and when all else fails, let Maggs run an iso. Randolph is always cutting to the basket and getting ready crash the glass. It’s simple, but it can work.
And honestly, that team is not an embarrassment on defense and starting next year, if everyone gets healthy, people who are able to look past the tempo should recognize them as a very solid defensive unit (once more, assuming Biedrins gets right). I wouldn’t have been able to say that last year, but Monta’s huge leap forward makes that plausible and since everyone rebounds, second chance points really shouldn’t be an issue.
I like the team going forward and I would have been very happy to watch them if they could have stayed healthy this year and adding a top 5 or 6 pick should only solidify them. Add John Wall, and they are two years away from contending. It’s not going to happen, but hey, I can dream can’t I?
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
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