Stuffed! The rates at which Wolves players have their shots blocked.
by feral on Nov 23, 2010 10:04 AM CST
Email
PrintWe have two easy sources for decent data on players getting their own shots blocked. Before even checking those, I decided I'd contrast the rates at which our various players, and a few others from around the league, get blocked on different types of shot attempts.
The two sources:
- Hoopdata includes "%Blkd" – the overall rate of [blocked shots]/[Overall shots] – for each player in the league.
- Individual player pages on 82Games include breakdowns of each player's shooting tendencies. The categories involved are "Jump," "Close," "Dunk," and "Tip." Then there's an overall "Inside" rate, which aggregates all the stuff near the basket basically.
I've combined current numbers from those two sets of data for 2010-11 below. Each name is preceded by the overall %Blkd from Hoopdata. The linked names go to the 82games pages for each player. After that I've listed the 82games breakouts for types of shot. As almost nobody records more than 0% blocks on dunks or tips by definition, I'm going to list those only when someone's got a rate > 0% on them.
Anyway, individual Wolves players:
11.9% Anthony Tolliver: Jump 8%, Close 25%. Overall "inside": 20%. High overall rates.
_3.6% Sebastian Telfair: Jump 2%, Close 9%. Inside: 9%.
_6.6% Michael Beasley: Jump 5%, Close 17%. inside: 13%. He can get that jumper off. Inside, though?
_7.5% Wes Johnson: Jump 6%, Close 19%, Inside: 12%.
_9.7% Kevin Love: Jump 10%, Close 16%. Inside: 12%. More jumpers blocked than I'd have guessed.
_9.9% Corey Brewer: Jump 5%, Close 23%, Dunk 25%, Inside 24%.
_5.2% Luke Ridnour: Jump 2%, Close 22%, Inside 22%.
10.3% Darko Milicic: Jump 31%, Close 3%, Inside 2%. He's right, nobody can stop the hook shot.
_8.7% Nikola Pekovic: Jump 21%, Close 5%, Inside 3%. Reputation for inside arts justified?
10.3% Kosta Koufos: Jump 8%, Close 7%, Dunk 50%, Inside 11%. Extremely small sample of dunks. ;-)
_3.2% Wayne Ellington: Jump 0%, Close 22%, Inside 18%.
A few league players for comparison:
15.9% Gerald Wallace: Jump 7%, Close 29%, Inside 27%. Wallace consistently gets blocked a lot over the years, for an outside player or really for any position.
_6.9% Corey Maggette: Jump 2%, Close 19%, Inside 16%. Another driving SF.
_6.4% Al Jefferson: Jump 3%, Close 15%, Inside 13%. Wiley post-up player whom we know well.
13.3% Tyrus Thomas: Jump 12%, Close 10%, Dunk 10%, Inside 10%. Athleticism weirdly employed.
_8.1% Shawn Marion: Jump 11%, Close 3%, Inside 2%. Marion takes a third of his shots "close," and doesn't get blocked on them.
_8.1% Carmelo Anthony: Jump 5%, Close 19%, Inside 16%. Compare and contrast to B-Easy?
27.3% Hasheem Thabeet: Jump 29%, Close 50%, Inside 17%. Who's blocking this many jumpers of his? He takes over half his attempts as jump shots. Yikes.
12.2% DeMarcus Cousins: Jump 13%, Close 7%, Dunk 13%, Inside 8%. DMC's game is about 60% jump shots right now. DeMarcus is really interesting to watch in game action at the moment; he's trying to get it outside and drive a lot, from what I've seen. When he gets it in good position he has the Jefferson-esque inside game, but when he's driving he's not quite under control and he'll get into tangles. (See: right.) Sacramento seems to think he's got that all-round potential in the NBA, though._9.7% Tony Parker: Jump 3%, Close 15%, Inside 15%. The quintessential driving point guard who can get shots off inside.
_8.4% Pau Gasol: Jump 10%, Close 13%, Inside 10%.
17.9% Glen Davis, 09-10: Jump 9%, Close 25%, Dunk 20%, Inside 25%. < Added
21.2% DaJuan Blair: Jump 26%, Close 18%, Inside 15%. < Added
And one weird outlying change in how someone is being used?
_2.9% Tyson Chandler: Jump 0%, Close 13%, Inside 3%.
12.6% Tyson Chandler Last Year: Jump 24%, Close 20%, Dunk 6%, Inside 11%.
Chandler's previous seasons were similar to least year. He's only appeared in 10 games, but Tyson's doing something a little different in those, so far.
Impressions? Love's rates compared with those of the rest of the team – Tolliver, for example – are one obvious lever to pull, but I think there's more of interest here. Thabeet and Milicic both getting blocked on their jumpers is sort of striking....
42 comments
|
0 recs |
Do you like this story?
Comments
Big Baby and DeJuan Blair need to get added.
They’re both high. I’ll tack ’em on….
Done.
(I can’t get to Big Baby’s 82games numbers this year for some reason – probably just a site hiccup – so I used last season. He doesn’t seem to be getting destroyed in the same way this time around, so far, though. Hoopdata only has him at 5.7% blocked this year, as opposed to the eye-popping breakout numbers last season.)
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
We are scoring at a good rate though
The wolves are 10th in the NBA in scoring averaging 101 pts per game. Thats pretty good.
We also lead the league in games played.
15, tied with two other franchises. Go extremely basic stats!
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
Harvey's pulling my chain a bit, or I thought so.
I’ve gone out of my way to mention that our points allowed per game is inflated by pace in maybe three spots in the last day.
Just rolling with the spoof, is all.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
There are also some curious numbers about shot clock usage and blocks.
Some players have tended to get blocked early in the shot clock, and some late.
Beasley, for one example, spreads things around, but he hasn’t taken that many of his shots late in the clock and he hasn’t been blocked as much on the one’s he’s taken then.
Tolliver’s been blocked on more early shots, but as the clock goes along he’s been stuffed less and less.
Love gets blocked on less of his early attempts.
Corey Brewer hasn’t been blocked at all on late attempts. As usual, it seems to be best for Corey to play in a state of half-panic.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
LOL @ the Corey Brewer comment
Since I’ve started following the Timberwolves (pause), one thing that’s stood out is Brewer’s ability to hit impossible shots. From half-court shots last season to flailing layups that appear to have no chance of going in. I just spent a good 10 seconds laughing at “As usual, it seems to be best for Corey to play in a state of half-panic”.
by DarkoMilicic on Nov 23, 2010 1:31 PM CST up reply actions
I'm with you on everything other than the DMC characterization
Al Jefferson like moves? I’ve watch every one of his games, there are no Al Jefferson moves in his arsenal.
I have seen some ridiculous 3-point shots that got him benched and had his minutes severely reduced. I’ve also seen a substantial number of turnovers even for a rookie: 2.6 turnovers per 1 assist in an average 24 minutes per game.
While DMC apparently doesn’t get his shot blocked as often, his field goal percentage is a woeful 38.5%
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Forgot to mention
DMC commits 4.1 personal fouls per 24 minutes too.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
I could not help my self
I though DMC was supposed to be the next shaq. A cant miss prospect. Tell me if I am wrong did it take shaq this long to make an impact. Stat heads check the numbers. Maybe shaq started this way too.
I'm anti-stat but here's the comparable (not close)
http://www.nba.com/playerfile/shaquille_oneal/career_stats.html
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Yeah this is the reason why I am anti stat
From the games that I watched I knew that DMC was going be a good player but nothing special. All the stat heads on this site blasted me and said I did not know what I was talking about. Ha !
Assume the prone position
and be prepared to get pommeled for your indulgence.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Pummeled or pommeled?
This ain’t no gymnastics forum, Flagrant, no matter how many contortions certain posters need to go through in order to feel persecuted.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
by feral on Nov 23, 2010 5:28 PM CST up reply actions 1 recs
I think we should put this little mini-thread...
…in amber.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
(Don't let Michael Crichton anywhere near it, though.)
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
wow
right into your wheelhouse and you hit it out of the park.
what are the chances of that exact spelling error, on this forum, by this poster, at this time?
I haven't written an insightful post in years.
by littleboxes on Nov 23, 2010 10:33 PM CST up reply actions
Someone(s) is working clean-up
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Everybody like a little ass
but no body likes a smart ass. Thanks for the clean up, bring tissue next time.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
DeMarcus Cousins looking like Big Al? Sure.
What I see is a post-up player who does a fair share of back-to-the-basket moves when he gets it fed to him in close, finishing below the basket a whole lot but getting his shots off without their being blocked so much. He’s strong and likes contact more, but he winds and twists a fair amount, like Al Jefferson, and he actually ‘pushes up’ shots in a similar way, with odd release points.
Simple example: Check out the first highight here and tell me it doesn’t remind you of Al Jeff.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
I beg to differ
Check out the first highight here and tell me it doesn’t remind you of Al Jeff.
Since DMC drew a foul on that up and under move.
This really isn't a DeMarcus Cousins post, but because you mentioned it:
Ranked TOV% of some notable rookies who’ve played 15 MPG so far and committed a lot of turnovers for their time on the floor:
Eric Bledsoe, Clips: TOV 27.4%, but a Usage% of only 17.3.
John Wall, WAS: TOV 19.9%, Usage 25.1% (Very different PG usage number than Bledsoe’s.)
Al-Farouq Aminu, LAC: TOV 19.8% (Rookies are playing a ton for that team, and losing the ball.)
DeMarcus Cousins: TOV 18.4%, Usage 26.3%. They’re handing him the ball a lot, he’s coughing it up a fair amount.
Evan Turner: TOV 17.5%, Usage 16.7%. Evan isn’t ball-dominant on that badly-shaped roster.
Wesley Johnson: TOV 12.6%, USG 16.0%. Not seeing a ton of the ball so far.
Blake Griffin: TOV 11.8%, Usage 25.8%.
The comparison of Cousins and Blake Griffin is probably the most interesting one for people with a DMC axe to grind. Cousins is eating more possessions, but turning it over much less.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
Mozgov for the NYK is fumbling it a lot too.
He’s turned it over more than Eric Bledsoe, and the guy’s a center. The numbers on him are calamitous so far. (PER right now: 5.0.)
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
I put the sharp pencil down
and see a turnover prone, frustrated, foul heavy, vertically challenged athlete who argues with his team’s trainers.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Strike that – reverse it. Blake's turning it over much less.
Typing, typing…..
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
What this tells me
Is the young players are forcing shots in traffic.
No surprise the age/experience differentials between Wolves v. other players.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Huh?
Al Jefferson, Carmelo Anthony, and Gerald Wilkins – veteran players with very different games from each other and from the various Wolves youngsters – are all being blocked on a higher percentage of “Inside” attempts than, to use the one example, Kevin Love. How do you take that as a lesson about young players forcing it up there?
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
Also, somewhat misleading
Is a brick a blocked shot? No
Is an air ball a blocked shot? No
etc
etc
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Does what you said here make sense to anyone else? Because I'm lost.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
What is says is that you
are looking at the world through a straw.
Your blocked shots stats, while interesting, fail to account for other related yet meaningful outcomes, for example:
- The # of bricks thrown at the glass when shots are contested
- The # of air balls thrown in the direction of the rim when shots are contested
Also, a more interesting study for stat freaks is to correlate % of blocked shots, etc. with the players age and experience in the league. I wager there’s a strong correlation efficient.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Nice David Brent-ism, there with the straw metaphor.
You’ll make someone a wonderful middle manager someday, at least when it comes to tossing around facile and deliberately insulting metaphors.
As the list above demonstrates pretty well and as I just said to you above, veteran players certainly do not universally have an edge in (not) being blocked compared to rookies. Even at positions where there’s often a marked contrast – PF vs. SF – and with different styles of play (post-up, outside shooter, slasher) that typically are associated with more or less blocks, things aren’t always as they seem. Gerald Wallace is a 10-year veteran.
But then, you seem to regard any attempt to check what’s true as “stat freak”-ery to sneer at. Your approach here was simultaneously to scoff at my “sharp pencil” while also demanding a higher standard of proof from me – a big correlative study that would somehow magically line up with your veterans-and-rookies idea.
Speaking of which: You’d have a much better chance of demonstrating change over time by doing something longitudinal over time for individual players. The correlation to ages of players across one single season is going to get lost in controls for things like position, team role, and so on. Over time, though, you could maybe demonstrate that players figure out how to avoid getting stuffed. I doubt the needle moves much after maybe the second year of most players’ careers, but it’s a doable idea. Have at it.
I’d suggest that trend would be much stronger over time with turnovers, personally. Young players lose the ball, but over time they figure that out. That seems much more likely to be actually true, especially for individuals over time.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
The law of natural selection
Your smart-ass remarks aside, I’ll compare my resume with your resume any day without knowing you or your background. I can tell you that I put the abacus and sharp pencil down well before advancing in my executive career for a Global Fortune 250 company. Stats did help getting through my undergrad and MBA studies.
If there is an insulting metaphor, it’s unfortunate you perceived it as such. I was trying to inject some realism into what I see as a poorly construed analysis with several uncontrolled for variables. For example, makes and blocks are not the only shot outcomes.
The reason, feral, that player age and experience vis-a-vis blocked shots is a more interesting story is because:
(1) Natural selection takes place in the NBA, meaning that a player must show steady advances in performance as a condition of NBA career advancement. For instance, better shot selection for better outcomes. Players who fail to show rapid progression generally don’t reach veteran status;
(2) with the Wolves being the NBA’s youngest team, it is likely that the percentages of being Stuffed! will much improve—perhaps more so that percentage improvements of other teams of veterans.
Look, you obviously don’t accept my premise which is fine. I’m not out to convince you of anything. It was a suggestion to improve upon your discovered research. Using a correlation analysis is entirely possible and perhaps contains fewer uncontrolled variables than the discovered analysis you provided.
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
Natural selection?
Social survival of the fittest, perhaps, but we’re not talking about anything being handed down from generation to generation or blind selection. Next up, trying to figure out where mutation, migration, and genetic drift fit into the picture.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
He definitely seems...
…to be more human than human.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Certainly that's the better way to ask the question
…. but when you start out with the world through a straw and pre-disregard the results by referring to “stat-heads” you probably won’t get the answers you’re looking for.
It’s probably more likely that this post is exploratory research that can lead to further, better questions like the ones you’re asking.
Also, with your second point about improving with age is the number of clean blocks that are called fouls when the shooter is a vet (Kobe rules)
by midlife crisis on Nov 24, 2010 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
But Milicic hardly has a jumper. Too small a sample, I would think.
Wolves, it's time to "switch the flip".
I honestly can't recall him shooting one this season..
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
82games categorizes 25% of Darko's shots as "Jumpers."
That is a very low percentage of jumper attempts. Al Jefferson in Utah gets credit for a lot more jump shots than Darko. Kevin Love takes half his shots as jump shots, Corey Brewer 71%, Luke Ridnour 86%.
The individual pages have those percentages, but not shot totals. Near as I can tell, they’re saying Milicic has taken .25 × 129 = 32 jump shots this year so far.
And yeah, this is only 13 games into the year. It’s the sample whut we gots. Last year’s stats show Milicic only being blocked 9% of the time on his jumpers, which again, were only 30% of his attempts.
Every real thought on every real subject knocks the wind out of somebody or other. – OWH
Comments For This Post Are Closed
Secondary Sidebar
User Tools
Related FanPosts on Canis Hoopus
Related FanShots on Canis Hoopus
FanPosts
Community blog posts and discussion.
Recommended FanPosts
Recent FanPosts
In Association With
Ball Don't Lie - NBA - Yahoo! Sport
- Mike Brown wants Jimmy Goldstein to ask a press conference question (VIDEO)
- Create-a-Caption: ‘Vengeance is mine,’ quoth Alvis
- Roy Hibbert wants to play for Team USA, seeks release from Jamaican national team
- Bucks forward Jon Brockman loves wearing adult onesies
- Andrew Bynum after 9-0 Thunder run beats Lakers: ‘We’re better than Santa Claus’
