Summer Cap Space Projections
by shrink on Feb 20, 2010 7:47 AM CST
103 comments
The trade deadline has passed, and we have a better look at where our picks will land, so I thought it was time to revisit our summer cap space numbers.
$13,000,000 Al Jefferson
$3,964,320 Ramon Sessions
$3,638,280 Kevin Love
$3,192,000 Jonny Flynn
$3,703,472 Corey Brewer
$2,333,333 Ryan Hollins
$1,078,800 Wayne Ellington
$1,000,000 (Ryan Gomes)
$2,812,200 Rights to Ricky Rubio
$3,336,800 MIN 2010 1st (currently #2)
$1,328,400 CHA 2010 1st (currently #15) ($0 if #12 or higher)
$933,500 UTA 2010 1st (currently #25) ($0 if #15 or higher)
$473,604 Minimum Roster Holds
$40,794,710 ... Total
$12,805,290 ... Expected 2010 Cap Space
However, there's some variability that could alter that number between now and then
Guaranteed Contracts (7): In an NBA system where contracts are guaranteed, it would appear that there'd be little flexibility in these numbers, but it can still occur.
First, as many of you may have noticed, I've listed Ryan Gomes at $1,000,000 for 2010. Gomes is on a partially guaranteed contract, and if he's waived before June 30, 2010, he's only guaranteed a $1 mil in 2010-11, $1 mil in 2011-12, and $750,000 in 2012-13. Its a shame to waive Gomes who is a good player on a good contract, but the additional $3.26 mil in raw cap space it brings may make it difficult to avoid.
Next, there's always the chance for a late season trade. Many people believe that once the Trade Deadline passes, a team can't trade again for the rest of the NBA season. That's not quite true. A team can't trade for the rest of "their" NBA season. As Kahn demonstrated with the Mike Miller/Randy Foye trade, we can occasionally see these late season maneuverings.
However, this won't save us much cap space. Expiring contracts can't be traded after the deadline, so we'd need to deal with a player who was guaranteed 2010-11 salary. The only way to move real money would be to deal with the teams under the 2009-10 cap or with TPE's. OKC ($2.5 mil) and MEM ($0.2 mil) don't match up or provide real savings under the cap, and the teams with TPE's have luxury tax problems and would be unlikely to deal. Perhaps a Jefferson trade could save some money within the 125% + $100,000 range, or a partially guaranteed deal could be acquired, but there are very few of those still around. A trade probably isn't going to increase our cap space - at least until 2010 free agency opens.
Euros (1): Ricky Rubio - Let me take a minute to remind people of how the Collective Bargaining Agreement works here. Since Rubio was a first round pick, he carries a cap hold until the start of the season which is equivalent to the rookie scale salary for the current year's #5 pick. Even if Rubio states that he won't come over next season, which is very likely, we will still carry that cap hold. Let me also note that 1st round picks generally get a 20% signing bonus to their rookie scale, so it would add $562,440.
Nikola Pekovic - As a second round pick, Pekovic does not carry a cap hold, and he will only count against our cap if he comes over and signs a contract. You'll note that I have not included him in our cap hold calculations, but if he comes over, which could be likely, we'll need to find money for him. I should also mention that if a team wants to use their cap space, they need to renounce all their exceptions (... to the salary cap), like the MLE, so paying Pekovic is an important issue to keep in mind.
Draft Picks (3). MIN pick. No one knows where we'll land in the lottery, and there could be big differences
1 - $4,152,900
2 - $3,715,700
3 - $3,336,800
4 - $3,008,400
5 - $2,724,300
We currently have the #2 spot before the lottery, and that looks unlikely to change. The expected value for the #2 spot, according to lottery odds, is almost exactly equal to the #3 pick, so I used that salary in the projection. Obviously, winning the lottery would happily cost us an additional $816,100 in cap space.
CHA pick (currently #15) $1,328,400. Likely Range #15-19 - $1,398,200- $1,144,900 ... ($0 if #12 or higher). The Bobcats are the 8th seed in the Eastern Conference right now, two games in front of MIL. Both teams upgraded at the deadline (and CHI slipped), but if the Bobcats come in ninth, they will likely fall within their top 12 protection, and the pick would be deferred to next year -- and save us cap space
UTA pick (currently #25) $933,500. Likely Range #20-28 - $1,099,100- $836,300 ... ($0 if #15 or higher). Since the Jazz decided not to trade Carlos Boozer, they will likely be one of the better teams in the play-offs. However, they lost Ronnie Brewer while several of their peers traded to add talent, so they could slip. Note though that picks in the 20's have only small differences in salary, so their final record won't alter our cap space figure significantly.
As I mentioned before, teams generally give their rookies a 20% increase over the rookie scale, so if we give out contracts too early, it can reduce our amount of cap space.
Minimum Roster Hold (1): The NBA requires every team to carry 12 players on its active roster. They assign a minimum salary cap hold for anything under 12, to prevent teams from artificially boosting their cap space with shortened rosters. Its important to mention that the number of roster holds we'd need will vary depending on our actions. For example, if we traded the UTA pick for a future pick, we would not save the full value of the pick, because we'd reduce our roster size, and need to add a second roster hold.
2010-11 NBA Salary Cap Estimate. This figure can't be calculated until the bean-counters add up all the money at the end of the season. Kevin Arnovitz just used $53.6 mil in a True Hoop article, that's close to what wyn's got too ($53.561). It will certainly be less than the current $57.7 mil we have now, but we'll have to wait and see. I suppose there's a chance that the NBA's revenues increase over the rest of the season, and that number could be $55 .. giving every team under the cap $1.4 mil more in cap space.
Finally, I want to thank wyn for his help keeping me on the straight-and-narrow in this article. We all know the blank stares (or worse) we get when we try discussing these things with spouses, girlfriends and co-workers.
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So…now what?
The Heat, Knicks, Nets, Bulls, Wizards, Kings and Clippers all have more cap room than us. That’s a good list of teams who have a better package to offer than us in terms of location/weather. Any thought of us making a big outright signing should be even less than before…almost nil.
Trades are still going to be the way to go most likely. For a team in the Wolves position, a deal like Houston pulled getting prospects/picks for taking a contract would seem smart.
An asset attached to Dalembert would make sense.
Galinari or Chandler attached to Eddy Curry could make sense if NY got word that LeBron and Wade were thinking package deal and they wanted to keep David Lee. I know they love Gallo, but if they could get two max guys while clearing enough to keep Lee, they’d have to consider it right? We could send them one of our extra picks (which they could trade for a future first to replace the one they’re sending to Houston). If the finances worked, Sessions could also be involved given their interest in him last summer.
A guy like Iguodala seems unlikely as we don’t have the cap room to take Dalembert too and that’s what Philly would want if they decide to clear the decks. Deng has been discussed, but he seems unlikely as well given what Chicago did at the deadline.
Any other ideas on potential trade targets?
Good work
I got the same number in terms of salary commitments for next year. It’s worth noting again that we don’t know where the 2011 cap will come in.
Make anyone regret the Hollins contract? Or even the Sessions contract? Had they signed 1 year guys to those roster spots, they would have another $5+ million in cap space, and its hard to imagine they could be much worse.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 8:50 AM CST reply actions
Brewer, for his money, is probably still the most likely dead weight.
Sessions is tradeable, still, I think. The book on him around the league is that he’s struggled in the context of the Wolves’ offense, but there’s probably going to be a market for Ramon if they need to move him. His deal isn’t bad relative to what he brings.
Hollins, as Stop-n-Pop made clear in his excellent couple of posts when Ryan was signed, is essentially being paid market value for a player like him.
If the Wolves need to unload someone to get up to that “max” level, Corey is still the one they’d have trouble moving, based on his overall season anyway. Should he perform like he did in January the rest of the year, there might be a taker. If he puts up numbers like his aggregate 09-10 stats (PER ~12+, defense chaotic but the numbers [opposing PER, for example] quite iffy) the rest of the way? Then he’s a bad contract, and one that’s keeping the team from being able to hit the FA market with full force. The Wolves might easily get into a spot where they need to package some other asset with Brewer in order to clear his deal next summer. They can probably do that, but it would sting somewhat. That was always the problem with his option, and despite two months of his playing way above his head it’s still there.
We have to hope Brewer is for real.
There’s always the option of “monetizing” one of the first rounders again, keeping that money off the books for now too. Unfortunately unless it’s the high pick that doesn’t save enough, and nobody thinks that would be a good idea….
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
I was surprised and disappointed they extended Brewer.
But I hope January was not a fluke and I’m proven wrong.
Disagree on Brewer
I think he may have one of the 3/4 easiest contracts to trade. While his last couple months may prove to be a fluke, their would be several GMs loving to get him and see if he improves even more, especially when worst case he’ll help out 20MPG on defense.
Corey's value is determined by the league, not in some sort of isolation. So you're saying....
….it would be as easy to deal Corey, a defensive ’tweener wing, at his money as it would be to trade:
a) Ramon Sessions, signed to 3 more years at moderate money as a borderline starting PG; or
b) Hollins, a big with huge athleticism signed (as S-n-P demonstrated out of the gate) at basically market rate.
Who are these GMs? Remind me which franchises are dying to cut $4 million from their cap to sign defensive wings whose offensive performance is badly inefficient but uses lots of possessions, and who routinely crack up under pressure. Find me another team where Brewer would clearly step into a starting role, or a first-tier bench role. Again, when you don’t treat him in isolation and instead look at the other options GMs have, he’s not such a great deal at his money.
Unless Corey extends his solid performances for the rest of the year, he’s “oversigned.” The type of player he is is just about the least-valued role there is in the league. Defensive wing? Particularly one whose defensive glory doesn’t show up in the actual numbers as well as Ryan Gomes’s? At SF, at least, Gomes shows dramatically better numbers than Corey this year.
Corey has to perform very well the rest of the way to be easily tradeable. His overall performance this year, after two months playing out of his mind, is still extremely mediocre. Nothin’ against him, but we have to hope the offense isn’t a mirage.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
I know this has all been discussed before
But if you assume that Corey’s production this season (13 points per game with a .470 efg%) is sustainable, his size/length/athleticism (meaning his defensive aptitude) is going to be quite attractive to any competent GM with a roster spot available.
Here’s the honest to god facts as I can find them: for players who are primarily guards (82games says Brewer has played 55% of the TWolves minutes at SG this year, while only 8% of total minutes at SF which is what basketball-reference has him listed as), and who are 6’-8" or taller (Brewer is 6’-9"), and have shot an efg% of .435 or better for a season(which is incidentally Brewer’s career efg%, he’s at .473 this year), and are 25 or younger (Brewer’s about to turn 24), represent an incredibly select group. There are an abundance of guards in the 6’-5" and taller range who have done this, but Brewer’s height and length is what makes him special. If he can simply maintain his current (season’s worth) level of production, or even his production since December (his minutes from Dec through now represents just under 31% of his career minutes, just to add some perspective), then I think someone will look past his disastrous first two seasons and see a highly talented role player who still has quite a bit of upside beyond his already solid production. At worst he’s a defensive specialist who can guard the KD’s and Melo’s of the world while showing that he can hit three pointers, and at best he’s a highlight reel and one-man wrecking crew waiting to happen. The truth about Brewer over the last third of his career is that he’s been playing like a #7 overall pick, (and actually by the time this season is done his current season total will represent 50% of his total minutes), and not like the bust we all thought he was. At what point are we compelled to recognize the Brewer we’ve seen this year as the player he is (e.g. pretty good) and not the player we’re afraid he was doomed to be?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
by biggity2bit on Feb 20, 2010 11:55 PM CST up reply actions
Wow, as you were typing did it occur to you at all that the same argument you use to slam
Brewer’s value could also be used against Sessions and Hollins???
“Value is determined by the league”….OK….well, tell me, what value did “The League” assign to both Sessions and Hollins last summer? HUH??
The entire league had a shot at either of them for a couple months, the Wolves paid more than anyone else was willing to pay. If memory serves correct, I believe when all was said and done Sessions had offers from a whopping 3 (THREE) teams. Yea, I suppose teams will be offering top 5 picks for him this summer.
OK, I’ll make it simple. If I could choose between having Sessions or Brewer on the team next season, I’d take Brewer. He is every bit as good (today, we’re not in November any longer) and has far more upside…oh wait, does Sessions even have an upside any longer??? BTW, that awful Brewer contract runs one more season, unlike the two seasons (+ a player option) that Sessions has on his contract.
You're going too far.
Corey is easily tradeable, but so is Sessions.
Sessions didn’t get other offers because everyone blew their cap space too early, allowing us to sign him to a cheap deal. His performance this season hurts his value, but not to the point that we couldn’t move him for raw cap space, or at the very least an expiring + minor asset.
Good players, for around 3-4 million?
Sounds like easily tradeable to me, but it’s a question of whether the incoming value makes it worth it.
Questioning Contracts
As you all know, I’m probably one of the biggest proponents for cap space around. I like the opportunities that money can provide, so I’m like you when it comes to taking a close look at the value of our guaranteed contracts. We could have saved extra cap space and chosen not to spend any MLE money, and this is very common in the NBA — 12 teams did just that this year. However, the 2009-10 MLE money provides Kahn an opportunity to choose players he wishes to invest in.
I like the contract to Ramon Session, though I don’t give Mr. Kahn a great deal of credit for this one. Due to delays with Ricky Rubio, the Wolves happened to be the last remaining team available who had money and an available job for the guy, after MIL (and many other teams) spent their money and made their PG/back-up PG choices. While the market is crowded with PG’s right now after last year’s draft, Sessions is a competent starter-level PG on one of the better contracts in the NBA. If we wanted to trade him last week, I believe we could have gotten expirings and a perk, so this was a good investment.
As for Ryan Hollins, I’ll just say that for me, the jury is still out on the guy. Hollins carries the “type” of abilities that we really need in a third big. He’s got size, length, athleticism, and speed. A contract in the $2’s for an NBA center is very good, particularly one with Hollin upside. However, he’s still a project, and right now, and he’s not producing enough to justify losing the additional cap space. Will that change? Its too soon to say, but he doesn’t need to get a whole lot better to be worth that small a deal.
The contract I question most is Ryan Gomes. Of the three, he is probably the best player, a good character guy, and one of the most talented guys on the Wolves. His partially guaranteed deal is quite reasonable as well, and he may also have had positive trade value. The problem is that while he’s worth his $4 mil in salary, he may not be worth his $4 mil in additional 2010 cap space. He’s one of my favorite players, but I’m a little surprised that he wasn’ttraded for an expiring and a future perk at the deadline. Perhaps we’ll look for a trade before 6/30, because it would be a shame to cut him, but remember – we can’t look for expirings in return.
Is Gomes even a question?
Ryan Gomes is a quality guy, and will be a decent bench forward for some team, but he’s not going to be here. There’s a reason you put him at $1 million, and you were right about that. He’s not going to be here.
Once they re-upped Corey, Gomes was out the door.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Sure, Sessions could have been traded for cap space, but wasn't
I liked the deal too, but now they are stuck with his cap number. Nobody with space is going to take him on this summer until after the bulk of the free agents are accounted for.
As for Brewer, I thought it was a mistake to pick up that option, however, he has looked so much better recently. I think he’ll regress somewhat; the real question is how much of this improvement is real?
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 1:24 PM CST up reply actions
First - Thank you for the Original Post
For the people like me constantly trying to unload Al Jefferson, it’s good to have a single source summary of the financial impact! This is good work.
I too am surprised Gomes wasn’t traded at the deadline. He seems like the kind of guy you send to San Antonio (or Dallas, or LA, etc) for a future 1st rounder. He doesn’t fit on the squad going forward and it’s a shame to waste his prime years starting on a bad team instead of bolstering a legit contender and maybe getting a ring or two.
As for Brewer, I like having him around – even if his ultimate ceiling is as a bench player I think his contract, skillset, and age are good fits for this team. Yes he needs to continue improving, but as the team’s 3rd wing… I like him.
I think Gomes gets moved as instant cap relief on draft night.
If we do one of these S&T’s we fantasise about.
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
His $4 million is a "good fit"?
It’s basically the thing keeping the Wolves out of Max territory for free agency. His or Sessions’s. Love’s not going anywhere, and neither is Jonny anytime soon.
Corey’s a late-first-round player on a 7th-overall-pick salary.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Thanks for the original post
I agree with your entire Session’s take…Kahn had a horseshoe in his pocket there and with Rubio dropping to #5.
The Hollins issue I have is that they should have let someone else pay to develop him for a couple more years. A lot of money for someone who’s had a couple years to prove himself but not really done so. This is a perfect example of why the NBA needs a minor league that allows end of NBA roster players to really develop while still getting paid by the NBA instead of a team.
I’ve got a little different take on Gomes. If the Wolves get lucky and end up with Wall, I could see them holding on to Gomes for another year to fill a wing spot. If they get Turner or a forward, I think they trade Gomes for a late 1st or early 2nd rounder. I really think with so many teams under the cap, there will be a couple that see Gomes being that 6th-8th man, especially teams that lose out on the prime free agents. A team like NJ could grab Gomes for next season, knowing they can release him the next season if they need the cap space. The Wolves don’t get much in the deal, but avoid the buyout.
Gomes's team option doesn't work that way, does it?
If the Wolves (or whoever has his rights) don’t waive him next summer, I believe Ryan has two more years and then a third on a player option. New Jersey or Minnesota or whoever won’t be able to release him and cut the cap figure down to a million again, I don’t think.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Several months ago I saw what you are saying
a few days ago I saw something saying he could be bought out in any season. I really don’t know the right answer. I was wondering a bit when I wrote the post, but went with the thought, mainly because I also suspect that if NJ took him this summer for a year, they would be able to find another team under the cap who would like him in 2011.
I questioned the Sessions
Hollins signings last summer. Wolves were not going to win this year no matter what so the signings of 2 players that are backups for 6M plus in cap space made no sense to me. I said 1 year vet minimum guys Kevin Ollie, Jason Collins are the way to go. The team would be better off in all ways with minimum vets. Didn’t see Wolves for a month or more until after All Star break, they’re worse in transition D,spacing on O, help and recover D and getting the ball to AL low than 6 weeks ago. What is Rambis doing in practice?
He is trying to teach them all about the triangle, the right way.
The first step was probably offering a helpful mnemonic device like “Opie had a heap of apples, apples Opie had a heap of.” O/H, A/H, O/A, A/O, H/A, H/O.
O = Opposite, H = Hypotenuse, A = Adjacent
Sine, Cosine, Tangent, Cotangent, Secant, and Cosecant.
Not sure where Rambis is now with his lessons, but you can probably see why guys are having trouble picking it all up. Trig doesn’t come easy to a lot of folks.
Trig would be a good nickname for Rambis
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Feb 20, 2010 10:55 AM CST up reply actions
Will refrain from referring to former first-lady of Alaska's family members here
"Never make predictions, especially about the future." Casey Stengel
LETS.... GO... HARVARD!
Secant, tangent, cosine, pi –
three point one four one five nine!
That was definitely our stupidest signing this offseason.
Since Sasha can no longer play a lick. How can a guy so young be so over the hill?
by princelyfrank on Feb 20, 2010 4:24 PM CST up reply actions
In his mind
he’s already making twice as much in the Euroleague.
He’s marking time in the NBA.
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
Kahn's plan is confusing to me
If Milicic works out as something more than just a 26-game rental and realizes some of the potential people thought he had, then okay… but that’s a highly unlikely outcome in my opinion, even if I like Milicic.
Instead of doing what other teams did (LAC for example) and cut 2010 salary by moving out non-core talent – in the Timberwolves case, Gomes, Hollins, potentially Sessions – and getting expirings or other assets in return, he kept those guys on the roster even though he’ll likely have three 1st round picks as well as Pekovic this summer. Instead of being a buyer and using his expirings or picks to add a talented player (or players) with a 2010 salary, he kept them and now will be in sub-max territory.
Now, I know he could still end up using the raw cap space to absorb a salary in the summer so by no means are the Timberwolves unable to do anything; but when the competition around you is making moves to put themselves in better position, and you sit back and do nothing, you’re only hurting yourself by being passive. He could’ve gone one of two routes to improve, but he did neither and saw himself get passed up by the aggressors. As a fan, I have no choice but to put my faith in Kahn’s plan… but man.
With the picks (and Pekovic) coming over, where is the room for Hollins and Gomes to be worthy of their salary? If Rambis isn’t going to play Sessions and Flynn on the floor at the same time, then why have 7mil tied up in the PG spot on a rebuilding team? Waiving Gomes and basically creating 2.7mil extra space is an awful use of an asset if that’s what Kahn decides to do.
I don’t know. I’m just really confused. I hope he makes me unconfused and has me in awe of his genius this summer.
I'm guessing the plan is something along the lines of:
1- Make a somewhat splashy trade on draft day
2- Use the remaining cap space to offer to either Rudy Gay, Joe Johnson, or Manu as much as they can possibly offer or to use Al Jefferson as part of a sign-and-trade for a max guy while using the rest to attempt to sign Gay, Johnson, or Manu.
3- Find some process of creative accounting to a) bring over Pekovic and b) offer an MLE to someone if they are able to make it to $53,whatever million (i.e. one cent above the cap).
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
MLE question
I thought that if unless we want it to count against our cap space, we have to renounce our exceptions on the first day of the free agent period. I didn’t think you could get it back after you renounced it.
You are correct
To maximize their cap space, they will have to renounce the MLE.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 11:04 AM CST up reply actions
Hopefully, they'll do it all
dramatic and grandstandy:
“I, DAVID KAHN, HEREBY RENOUNCE THE MID-LEVEL EXCEPTION, AND ALL FOR WHICH IT STANDS!!!!”
by PoorDick on Feb 20, 2010 11:15 AM CST up reply actions 1 recs
Well done you two!
You know I’m going to snicker now every time I hear the word “renounce” for the next five years.
I highly doubt they renounce it..
…and that we end up seeing a sign and trade with creative accounting to get them just over the cap. I also forgot to put the “and/or offer an MLE” instead of simply an “and”. I think an Al sign and trade is the best likelihood.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Something like...
…Al in a sign and trade to bring them up to $41-42 with the new player, the rest on Rudy Gay, maybe a pick swap to bring them just above the cap, and then a portion of the MLE on Pekovic. I’m hoping for a Al-to-the-Bulls for Noah + whomever, Evan Turner, Rudy Gay, Pekovic, and a big 2nd 1st rounder from either Aldrich, Sanders, Whiteside, or Monroe.
2010:
1- Flynn/Sessions
2- Turner/Brewer/Ellington
3- Gay/Brewer/Turner/Gomes
4- Love/Pekovic/Gomes
5- Noah/Pekovic/(new center)
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I like that line-up
Assuming they can’t/won’t get rid of Flynn before next season, Turner seems like such an obvious pick to help facilitate the offense.
I’m still dreaming about drafting Turner, moving AlJeff to the Brooklyn Nets for the 2nd or 3rd pick and filler as their consolation prize for losing Free Agent Frenzy, and getting DeMarcus Cousins to fill out the front line. Then the money that Al would have cost can be used to pay Gay.
i forgot..
…to add cousins to my big man list. he should definitely be there.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I think you are on to something, but...
I think we are keeping cost down going into CBA. That means no Gay.
1-Flynn/Sessions
2-Turner/Ellington/Brewer
3-Brewer/Gomes
4-Love/Pekovic/Gomes
5-Noah/Pekovic/Hollins
Also, if Chicago really wanted to drop salary for FA, then they may drop Noah and Deng to us for Jefferson. (Imagine Rose, Wade, and Jefferson on the same team…). However, that undermines my argument about not wanting to go after Gay for cost issues. So…
1-Flynn/Sessions
2-Turner/Ellington/Brewer
3-Deng/Brewer (Gomes get moved/bought out)
4-Love/Pekovic
5-Noah/Pekovic/Hollins
They're not dealing Noah
Joachim Noah is pretty well untouchable at present for the Bulls.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
That could be true, but..
I was going off of SnP. You can dispute it with him!
Also, I think they might for Big Al, especially if they could move Deng in the process enabling them to land Wade.
The Jefferson sign and trade option is my favorite
I’ll also throw in Flynn or other assets if it brings back someone significantly better than Jefferson.
I think it's more likely
that the team trades Gomes + Love and filler for another player. I don’t think they view Love as part of the future.
Why? Sure, I can come up with other reasons for Love only playing 21 minutes but the simplest reason is that the team views Love as a bench player a marginal duplicate contributor.
It would suck
But it’s my new prediction. Mark it down. Littleboxes boldly predicts Love will be traded.
If his minutes increase in this last quarter of the season I may change my prediction. But as of know, Love gets traded. Jefferson stays.
by littleboxes on Feb 20, 2010 10:02 PM CST up reply actions
You've hit on the Wolves issue that most intrigues me
going into this summer. Depending on how you interpret things, either of these guys could be moved. I have to believe Kahn and Rambis have “The Guy” they want to keep, but I also think only they really know who that guy is. The only thing I think is becoming obvious is that Rambis doesn’t think they can play significant minutes on the court together.
In terms of game style and contract length
it seems to me that if a decision is made it would be to move Jefferson.
Love probably has more trade value if only for being on the rookie scale still.
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
I don't know what the plan is, but Casper makes a good point
They weren’t able to either add talent or add cap space at the deadline, meaning that one opportunity is now gone.
If they want to maximize cap space, they will have to renounce their MLE, so that’s something they probably won’t be able to use.
It will be interesting to see what happens this summer with all the cap space. It seems almost inevitable that total salaries around the league will go down, and a lot of guys currently getting paid will find themselves either out of the league or signing for very limited money with the number of expiring contracts this season. Consider a guy like Al Harrington for the Knicks. He has his talents, a sizeable forward who can score. He’s also making $10 million this year, and it wouldn’t totally surprise me if he’s out of the NBA next year.
I think teams, perhaps out of financial necessity, are beginning to understand concepts like replacement level and are beginning to properly value players. Are you better off paying Al Harrington $10 million, or filling that roster spot cheaper? Can Harrington really do more for me than a bunch of other guys that I can sign for part of my MLE that maybe have slightly different skills?
Speaking of which, a guy I might take a look at this summer for relatively cheap is Hakim Warrick. He’s put up some decent numbers in limited minutes and is interesting as a combo forward.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 11:03 AM CST up reply actions
Flexibility
I too would’ve like to see Kahn make some deadline day moves to add assets or ship out salary but I think that we sit in a very unique position for the offseason.
I really hope that Kahn does whatever it takes to get Evan Turner. With the extra cap space and assets we have, I hope Kahn uses our flexibility to trade up and get him if we fall out of the #2 pick. Also, like SnP said, we have a very attractive package for sign-and-trade deals if we miss out on the free agents we want. We can absorb salary and offer lots of young talent.
This offseason will definitely show us exactly what Kahn is thinking and will really test to see if he is the next Daryl Morey or another run of the mill GM.
Mouth watering
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Feb 20, 2010 11:26 AM CST up reply actions
What Do People Think Of Remaking the Entire Front Court?
I am starting to get really sick of having the bigs just get beaten on every game. No namers and rookies just destroy Love and Jefferson. Part of it is poor wing defense, but having great post and weak side defense can cover up poor wing defense and really allow the wings to focus on the offensive end.
I like the idea of moving Jefferson for Harden and a pick. This would open up about $8 million in cap space
Trade Kevin Love to Golden State for pick and Anthony Randolph
Trade Ramon Sessions for cap space and future protected first
Trade GS 1st, Utah 1st and cap space for Andre Iguodala and Philadelphia 1st
Draft Derrick Favors and Hassan Whiteside. Then move leftover picks for future draft picks.
Sign Rudy Gay and Pekovic.
Pekovic/Whiteside
Randolph/Favors
Gay/Brewer
Iguodala/Harden
Rubio/Flynn
I know it is a bit fantastical, but I really think it would be a good idea to move on from the McHale era. I haven’t included a trade for Brewer, because he gives an all out effort all the time, but I would move him in the right deal.
You couldn't trade
Sessions and his 12.7M next 3 year deal for anyone.
New collective agreement with
players where salaries are going down in 2011 and in todays market backup pt guards are making 2-3M, how is he tradable?
Today's market?
Which good backup PGs make $2-3 million?
He’s a backup for us, but as a starter last year he was a top 10 PER point guard. Several teams could still view him as a cheap option to start. Teams like Indy might have interest in a cheap starter given that there are no draft prospects of mention outside of Wall.
I think Session's contract is excellent value
the problem is the lack of utilisation.
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
here's a list of NBA backups
Barea-1.6 Augustin-2.3 Lawson-1.4 Bynum-825,000 CJ Watson1M Lowry-2M Earl Watson-2.8 Farmar-1.9 Tinsly-1M Arroyo-1M Collison-1.2 Eddie House-2.8 Maynor-1.3 Jas Willams 1.3 Boykins-1.2 Dragic-1.8 Bayless-2.1 George Hill-1M Ronnie Price 1M. That’s what you pay a guy who averages 8 pts 3ast. That’s most of the league and they all have better records than Wolves.
Hand on your heart
How many of those guys are better or will/may be better than Sessions.
Lawson
Beaubois (you missed him)
And I think that about covers it. He makes closer to 4m next season, but in all honesty, couldn’t he really be a starting PG?
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
Conned is so often badly wrong.
I don’t usually notice, but said poster has consistently seemed completely wrongheaded to me over time.
Look at past posts. When the Wolves said Darko would play, his/her response was that Kahn had said the same thing about Rubio. Totally ridiculous, inane comparison.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Agreed
It seems that there are few people that come here just to complain about one axe they have to grind, and every other view on another topic is usually negative. Even if guys like KLJ seem like they have a similarly one-track mind, he’s at least very positive and genial, and doesn’t come across like all he can do is bitch.
I think you are on to something here
Jefferson gets moved this summer for a real center. Then they see how Love plays next to him. If Love performs well, great…otherwise Love gets moved after next season.
The one other thing I like to add is from watching Rubio play is that he really likes to throw alley oops to his big men and neither Love nor Jefferson are really able to do that. I really wish that I like Derrick Favors more. He had a phenomenal game today and I hope we can see more of that, but he could be a perfect complement next to Love. The size and the athleticism would be perfect. Then if that didn’t work out, then we could move on in 2011.
Keep in mind
that Favors is only a freshman and playing on a team with guards that aren’t playmakers. Plus he is sharing the frontcourt with another big man in Gani Lawal that is the vet on the team. I have no question that Kahn and Co. are eyeing him closely in the event we end up with the 3rd or 4th pick, as he appears to be the type of guy that can play some C, along with PF. Hell, if Jefferson can play C, then Favors, who is far more explosive, should be able to play some C and form a nice rotation with Love and Jefferson or Love and TBD if Jefferson gets traded.
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 20, 2010 6:16 PM CST up reply actions
I agree. I read the DraftExpress article too :) I really like Givony. The more I think about it, the more I think Jefferson is as good as gone. The clincher for me is Pekovic. He is just so big and he is as athletic as Big Al. There are not many people in the league that will be able to deal with his strength. He is also more of a bull than Al is and that should get him to the FT line more and make him more of an efficient scorer.
I think the deal I like the most is Harden and a pick for Jefferson. I am not sure if I would want a pick from this year or a pick in the future, but that deal should open up $8 to $10 million in cap space. Then sign Gay. Would a backcourt of Harden, Gay, and Brewer work? I am not sure. But I do really like a rotation of Love, Pekovic, and Favors. Having one of the best rebounders with a jump shot, a potential defensive stalwart, and an offensive bull sounds like a great front line to me……..as long as they don’t turn into black holes.
DO you think OKC would take on Jefferson's money
with Green in the PF slot now?
I’d suspect OKC do that sort of deal for a legit C, but not Al Jefferson.
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
If they are going to try and win a championship they will move for Jefferson. Green is playing out of position; he really is a SF. I think he gets moved to the bench as a 6th man. He is a net -13.7 per 100 possessions. That is awful. For comparison, he has played 77% of of the available minutes, while Durant has played 82% of available minutes and he is a +13.9 and Harden has played 46% and he is a +2.4.
I don't think OKC would do that
but I suspect they would do Green+pick for Jefferson. That’s tough to pull the trigger on if you are the Wolves.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 21, 2010 8:09 AM CST up reply actions
Expected Value of the 2nd Worst Record
In retrospect, I thought I should dispel any confusion I caused by using the salary for the #3 pick when we have the #2 “seed” going into the lottery. Simply, because of lottery odds, it’s expected value before the lottery is
- …19.9% 0.199
- …18.8% 0.376
- …17.1% 0.513
- …31.9% 1.276
- …12.3% 0.615
pick …100% 2.979 … or worth about the 3rd pick.
Nothing to see here .. carry on.
I think the biggest thing this should lead to...
Is further player development. Even if they don’t make a big splash, they will add at least 3 new, (hopefully) talented players to the roster. If the team is serious about becoming a top player-development team, they should make sure that their assets aren’t squandered because of a desire to win ASAP. I hate the losing as much as anyone but continuing to reshuffle the cards is more likely to lead to lateral than upward movement.
With that said, if they can’t make a big deal that improves their team, then they should look to overpay 1-2 vets on short-term deals to improve their game-to-game competitiveness. Sign them to deals that expire before the new CBA would take effect and then make moves after it has been implemented. These are talented players who just don’t have consistent effort or focus, and maybe they need guys more talented than Damien Wilkins or more focused than Pavlovic to keep them in the game when things aren’t coming easily.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 20, 2010 12:35 PM CST reply actions
The thing about development in the NBA (especially in Minnesota)...
Is that the players are likely to leave once they’re developed. This isn’t baseball. There are no farm systems for players that are better than average.
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Feb 20, 2010 1:13 PM CST up reply actions
That rings true
when I read it, but then I try to think of players who have played for the Wolves early in their careers, and then gone on to greatness. Or even goodness:
1. Billups?
2. KG? (extenuating circumstances)
Other than those two, no one comes to mind. And upon further review, it appears the team is at least as bad at drafting as they are at developing players.
It's true.
Most of our terrible players go on to be even more terrible once they leave. Foye, Wally, THud, all saw their best days as Twolves. And most of our draft picks never even saw any minutes with another team. Paul Grant, Will Avery, the number of complete draft whiffs are just depressing. When people complain about Flynn, just take a deep breath, compare him to Will Avery and thank your lucky stars that at least we got a guy who can play some minutes and has some positive attributes to go along with his flaws.
by princelyfrank on Feb 20, 2010 4:29 PM CST up reply actions
Of course, it has to be done intelligently
Personally, I don’t see a point in drafting second rounders unless they’re Euros to be stashed for later use or guys who can contribute right away. However, teams can hold on to first rounders long enough to reap the benefits of developing them.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 20, 2010 5:50 PM CST up reply actions
Somewhat OT, but I just watched Barca win their semi-final in the Copa del Rey
1. Ricky Rubio was by far the best player on the court. When he was on the court.
2. I don’t know that I’ve seen worse coaching in terms of rotations in my life than I saw from the Barca coach. It’s tough when you have a roster full of good players, but it was a joke. He has 4 guys (Rubio, Navarro, Vazquez, and Lorbek) who should be getting the bulk of the minutes, but he can’t seem to get them on the court.
3. Back to Rubio. Start of the game, Barca runs out to a 10 point lead; Rubio hits a 3 and is basically in control 5 minutes in. He gets taken out, not to be seen again in the first half. Valencia finds their feet, makes a run in the 2nd quarter…no Rubio. Only a couple of lucky bounces keep Barca up by 3 at halftime, despite being obviously the better team.
As a result, Rubio plays essentially the entire 2nd half, and dominates. Drives and dishes to start the 3rd. Draws a shooting foul. Makes a driving layup. Hits Vazquez on an incredible alley-oop. Makes a challenged 3 from the corner toward the end of the 3rd quarter. 4th quarter, creates a couple of turnovers with excellent defense, draws more fouls, gets guys open. Finally taken out for a minute with about 4 to go…Valencia immediately cuts a 12 point lead to 8, back in comes Ricky.
It was one hell of a performance. He wound up with 14/4 (of course, getting assists in Europe is like pulling teeth). 19 years old and the guy can really, really play. Final is tomorrow.
By the way, I was able to watch online at the ACB site.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 1:21 PM CST reply actions
I can't wait...
to see this kid next to Evan Turner.
Why not both
Get lucky in the lottery and draft Wall, then do almost whatever it takes to get the #2 pick and grab Turner. Future backcourt is Wall and Rubio, w/ Turner playing half time at SG and half time at SF. Rubio plays 35 MPG at PG, Wall gets 13 MPG at PG & 22 at SG.
Either...
Rubio is really the one thing about this team that is most exciting
by SF on Feb 20, 2010 3:21 PM CST up reply actions
Rubio is The One
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Feb 20, 2010 3:39 PM CST up reply actions
I was going to comment on
what a loser you are for watching this game.
Then I got to your part about watching the final online at the ACB site and I thought, “HEY! I’m not doing anything tomorrow!” and furiously googled my way to the ACB site to see what time the game aired.
So, yeah, where do I sign up for membership in the L Club?
You're already in, my friend
you’re already in.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 3:37 PM CST up reply actions
And besides
Somehow watching an occasional Barca game makes me feel less like a loser than watching Wolves games.
That’s real loserdom.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
Losers Sans Frontieres
Won't someone think of the ping pong balls?
Kurt Rambis - stop this insanity!
Watched some of the replay
I think he was pulled early because he got two fouls. His handles and floor vision are just sick.
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 20, 2010 3:30 PM CST up reply actions
I know!
From the highlights I’ve seen of him I’ve thrown up in my mouth several times.
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Feb 20, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
Think big
We have flexibility and the willingness to blow it all up. Kahn should call every team with a superstar FA and say ‘sign and trade for any three players.’ Who knows? Maybe Wade misses snow and secretly thinks Riley is a douche and says he isn’t re-upping. Al, Love, Flynn for Wade. We still have a ton of space to sign Bosh or Joe or Gay and 3 first rounders.
Not saying this is happening, but Al + either Love, Flynn, Sessions, Gomes,or Brewer is pretty much a match for a max contract. For me Rubio is the only asset I don’t trade for a superstar.
Obviously, this is shoot for the moon stuff, but I am not buying the whole ‘7 other teams have way more cap space so we’re screwed’ line. If we are willing to trade Al + anybody we can also get two max guys. Sign and trade is a powerful thing.
'It's just noise coming out of an ugly scientist.' Michael Scott
But...
I keep wondering whether Kahn saying that he wants the Wolves to lead the league in player development is code for “don’t expect much to happen outside of the draft, at least for a while.” The more I read about our 2010 free agent prospects and players that could be had in trades, the more I think that Kahn will try to build us primarily through the draft, for better or worse.
Is Kahn crazy like a fox??
Salaries may not go down as much as we assume this summer.
There has obviously been a downward trend in overall payroll the last 2-3 years, but I don’t think it is all economics related. Something to keep in mind is that for at least the last two seasons, 4 or 5 of the biggest spending teams have been reducing payroll trying to set themselves up to get one of the big 3-5 FAs this summer. That has limited player’s options the last couple summers, causing downward pressure on salaries
Looking at the players who will be available this summer vs. almost a dozen teams below the cap (most looking to spend), it could actually be a sellers market. When teams that are $20 million below the cap realize their best option in free agency may be getting in a bidding war for Boozer, the value of already signed players like Jefferson may actually improve. Jefferson could end up being a very valuable commodity this summer, especially to teams like NJ or Miami, if they can’t land a FA.
I'm praying for this
Big Al’s trade value was terrible at the deadline because so many teams are trying to preserve/increase their 2010 cap space. When the offseason comes and 8 teams get to the table and realize their isn’t enough food for everyone, the pendulum will swing the other way. Suddenly, Al at $13 million will be a lot more attractive than Rudy Gay at $15 million.
Hopefully, some poor team will make a salary-imbalanced trade for Al, allowing them to say to their fans “Look, we were able to use our cap space to take on this guy!” even as the actual values of what they’re giving back isn’t all that different. Then we can use the cash savings to sign Pekovic, maybe bring back guys like Wilkins (vet min) or Darko ($7 million/2 years), and still have plenty of cap space to sit on for when a better opportunity arises.
Two things to keep in mind
One of the issues that’s overlooked in the grand economic scheme of the NBA is that all those teams didn’t acquire 2010 cap space out of nowhere. They got it from players on expiring contracts. Now, these players aren’t all going to just retire – they are going to want to stay in the NBA and get new contracts. Nobody except superstars is going to get a big contract in the 2010 economic climate. Moreover, several teams will be spending only up to the salary cap instead of the lux, carving off roughly $10 mil of team salary for each one each. Finally, we have another 30 new rookies on guaranteed contracts taking jobs and salary. The net result? There’s going to be lots of free agents, and a lot less money for them and its going to drive salaries downward.
However, I’m not worried about Al Jefferson. The guys that are going to continue to get paid are the stars that provide unique advantages that team’s can’t replicate for cheaper salaries. Say what you want about Al’s flaws, but he’s still one of best low-post scorers in the league, and that’s a valued commodity. Jefferson can develop offense by himself, he’s a big man, and he’s very young. He will retain value far more than some ubiquitous swingman like a Luol Deng.
I think that if we wanted to get out of Al’s contract (and I’m not sure we do), that we will find offers. Imagine you’re a team that sacrificed talent to clear a lot of cap space. A week into free agency, and you’re stunned to see so many max deal players staying home or pairing up elsewhere. It looks like you may have made a big investment with cap space and fans expect “something” good for it. I imagine at least one of these teams would offer us a sign-and-trade that contains cap space + a terrific pick or prospect.
T-Mac
random comment here… T-Mac looks pretty good in this game vs. OKC. 26 points, and is making very good decisions with the ball. Also, he’s being checked by Sefalosha, who is no slouch on D. Maybe he wasn’t kidding about Tim Grover fixing something with his body.
Yep, just watched it
The Knicks managed to seize defeat from the jaws of victory, but T-Mac looked really good.
The question is: does he have a grievance against the Rockets? He clearly is going to lose money on his next contract verses had he played, say, 60 games this season, and he told the Rockets he could play.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 9:36 PM CST up reply actions
I wonder how that works
in the current CBA.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 20, 2010 10:19 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, I don't know if there's an avenue to grieve something like this
by Eric in Madison on Feb 20, 2010 10:29 PM CST up reply actions
I don't think he was cleared to play physically for the first 20 games or so
so really, if he plays enough now a grievance probably won’t go far. Rockets can claim it would have taken him 10 games to get in game shape, blah blah blah, and ultimately it may have only cost him 20 games or so.
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