FanPost

How do we evaluate individual player defense? Is it meaningful?

Mostly we do three things.

1) We look at the teams defense - how much is scored on the team and then "allocate the blame"

2) we use our eyes to tell us, what is happening on the floor.

3) we use statistical techniques like plus/minus, on floor/off floor etc.....

Do they tell always tell us the right story?

I'd argue no! Not always and maybe not often.

Why? TEAM DEFENSE! -

With team defense you are only as good as the guy who is rotating to cover your man. When players on the floor trust each and rotate well its a thing of beauty. But one bad link and ruin the whole chain.

So what happens is players who are on teams that play bad team defense, are often tarred by that brush, they are individually bad defenders.

What about our eyes? They can tell where the defense is breaking down right? Not unless you truly understand what should be happening on the defensive rotations. Bad defensive teams often do the first rotation and sometimes the 2nd rotation correctly, but its 3rd, 4th and sometimes 5th rotations that break down bad defensive teams.

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Let me give a few examples of how a bad defensive player can become a good one and vice versa.

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Vince Carter - his "reputation" is as a bad defensive player.

If we look at his on court and off court stats while with the Nets in 2008-9, we see why.

[Note: the following data is from 82 games and is points per 100 possession given up.]

When vince was off the court his team gave up 108.1, when he was on the court his team gave up 113.8 - so when vince was on the court the Nets gave up almost 6 MORE points a game

Now lets look at vince in 2009-10 with the magic.

vince was on the court the magic give 101.8 points, vince is off the court magic give up 107.9 - so when vince is on the court the magic gave up 6 points FEWER..... a game.

So did vince magically change? Some might say he's working harder on defense. That could be part of the change. I think most of it is just playing with teammates who are better defenders and do all of the rotations etc better.

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Another example -- Paul Pierce - before and after the "big 3".

When pierce was on the "on the court" in 2006-7 his team gave up 109.6, when he was "off the court" his team gave up 107.8 - so the celtics of 2005-6 were roughly 2 points a game better on defense when Pierce was off the court.

In 2007-8 with addition of the big 3, pierce "on the court" defense gave up 99.6, Pierce off the court gave up 100.5.

So the Celtics defense went from being a bad defense to the best in the league in one season and pierce went from hurting to helping.

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Let me give you another example that contradicts your expectation that its all due to playing with Howard or KG. --- Shaq .... went from Phoenix who played little defense and up tempo to a defensive team - the cav's.

Shaq in Phoenix vs cleveland…..

In 2008-9 when "on court" phoenix gave up 114.0 pts per 100 possessions, and when off the court they gave up 110.6
So they were very bad and Shaq made them worse on defense.

In 2009-2010 when "on the court" cav’s gave up 104.5 pts per 100 possessions and when off the court they gave up 105.2

so Shaq looks like a much better defensive player both from an overall scoring standpoint and from his own individual performance…..

This team didn’t have a "howard" or a "KG"…. just a bunch of more talented defenders who were focused on that goal.

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So how do we evaluate individual players defense? Look at team success doesn't work as we saw in the Celtics and Nets examples. Carter and Pierce played for bad defensive teams and were considered bad defensive players. That has already changed for Pierce and is in the process of changing for the Magic. Both carters and pierces individual defensive performance changed from hurting to helping their teams defense.

Shaq is more interesting, I didn't show it all, but he went from being a great defender on Orlando to good on the lakers, very good on Miami, bad on Phoenix and now good again on the Cav's.... how's that for magical transformation....lol.....

As for watching a teams defense using your eyes, its often difficult to understand who has "missed the defensive rotation". If a opponent center scores its not necessarily our centers fault. Big men help out on defense more than anyone else. They have to trust that when they help that someone will help them. Its that 2nd or 3rd rotation that most often breaks down for a young team like the wolves.

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If you put someone like jefferson (who wants to work at it) on a good defensive team or surround him with teammates like who can all play good team defense, he will also suddenly go from being bad defender to a good one - statistically - just like Carter and Pierce and many others. If he played with a KG in his prime or a Howard, he would be considered a league leader in defensive win share, based on team performance.

And when you play on the floor with a bunch of young players who don't understand rotations, especially players like Hollins who has little understanding of the game, that is the opposite of playing with good or great team defenders.

I've also said repeatedly before -- in December, when jefferson and love played the most together the wolves were #11 in "at the rim" defense. They would have been in the top 10 if pace adjusted, the wolves were #3 in pace in December.

See the full analysis for december stats here (ignore the year to date stats as they have obviously changed)

http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/1/28/1274057/where-wolves-opponents-score-on

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The Thunder are an interesting case... mostly same players but huge improvement in defense from last year to this year!

thunder defensive rating:

2009-10 – 102.7 points per 100 possessions – ranked 3rd.

2008-9 – 109.4 points per 100 possessions – ranked 20th.

most of the players are the same….. Durant, Green and Westbrook… primary differences… added Harden who is 5th in minutes and sefolosha’s minutes doubled, kristic played 30% more….collison still big contributor….

so changing a few players made a HUGE difference……

The famous kevin Durant case:

Durants on court off court in 2008-9 on court 112.6, off court 104.4
Durants on court off court in 2009-10 on court 103.0, off court 105.8

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Did I convince anyone?