How do we evaluate individual player defense? Is it meaningful?
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 10:41 AM CST
30 comments
Mostly we do three things.
1) We look at the teams defense - how much is scored on the team and then "allocate the blame"
2) we use our eyes to tell us, what is happening on the floor.
3) we use statistical techniques like plus/minus, on floor/off floor etc.....
Do they tell always tell us the right story?
I'd argue no! Not always and maybe not often.
Why? TEAM DEFENSE! -
With team defense you are only as good as the guy who is rotating to cover your man. When players on the floor trust each and rotate well its a thing of beauty. But one bad link and ruin the whole chain.
So what happens is players who are on teams that play bad team defense, are often tarred by that brush, they are individually bad defenders.
What about our eyes? They can tell where the defense is breaking down right? Not unless you truly understand what should be happening on the defensive rotations. Bad defensive teams often do the first rotation and sometimes the 2nd rotation correctly, but its 3rd, 4th and sometimes 5th rotations that break down bad defensive teams.
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Let me give a few examples of how a bad defensive player can become a good one and vice versa.
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Vince Carter - his "reputation" is as a bad defensive player.
If we look at his on court and off court stats while with the Nets in 2008-9, we see why.
[Note: the following data is from 82 games and is points per 100 possession given up.]
When vince was off the court his team gave up 108.1, when he was on the court his team gave up 113.8 - so when vince was on the court the Nets gave up almost 6 MORE points a game
Now lets look at vince in 2009-10 with the magic.
vince was on the court the magic give 101.8 points, vince is off the court magic give up 107.9 - so when vince is on the court the magic gave up 6 points FEWER..... a game.
So did vince magically change? Some might say he's working harder on defense. That could be part of the change. I think most of it is just playing with teammates who are better defenders and do all of the rotations etc better.
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Another example -- Paul Pierce - before and after the "big 3".
When pierce was on the "on the court" in 2006-7 his team gave up 109.6, when he was "off the court" his team gave up 107.8 - so the celtics of 2005-6 were roughly 2 points a game better on defense when Pierce was off the court.
In 2007-8 with addition of the big 3, pierce "on the court" defense gave up 99.6, Pierce off the court gave up 100.5.
So the Celtics defense went from being a bad defense to the best in the league in one season and pierce went from hurting to helping.
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Shaq in Phoenix vs cleveland…..
In 2008-9 when “on court” phoenix gave up 114.0 pts per 100 possessions, and when off the court they gave up 110.6
So they were very bad and Shaq made them worse on defense.
In 2009-2010 when “on the court” cav’s gave up 104.5 pts per 100 possessions and when off the court they gave up 105.2
so Shaq looks like a much better defensive player both from an overall scoring standpoint and from his own individual performance…..
This team didn’t have a “howard” or a “KG”…. just a bunch of more talented defenders who were focused on that goal.
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So how do we evaluate individual players defense? Look at team success doesn't work as we saw in the Celtics and Nets examples. Carter and Pierce played for bad defensive teams and were considered bad defensive players. That has already changed for Pierce and is in the process of changing for the Magic. Both carters and pierces individual defensive performance changed from hurting to helping their teams defense.
Shaq is more interesting, I didn't show it all, but he went from being a great defender on Orlando to good on the lakers, very good on Miami, bad on Phoenix and now good again on the Cav's.... how's that for magical transformation....lol.....
As for watching a teams defense using your eyes, its often difficult to understand who has "missed the defensive rotation". If a opponent center scores its not necessarily our centers fault. Big men help out on defense more than anyone else. They have to trust that when they help that someone will help them. Its that 2nd or 3rd rotation that most often breaks down for a young team like the wolves.
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If you put someone like jefferson (who wants to work at it) on a good defensive team or surround him with teammates like who can all play good team defense, he will also suddenly go from being bad defender to a good one - statistically - just like Carter and Pierce and many others. If he played with a KG in his prime or a Howard, he would be considered a league leader in defensive win share, based on team performance.
And when you play on the floor with a bunch of young players who don't understand rotations, especially players like Hollins who has little understanding of the game, that is the opposite of playing with good or great team defenders.
I've also said repeatedly before -- in December, when jefferson and love played the most together the wolves were #11 in "at the rim" defense. They would have been in the top 10 if pace adjusted, the wolves were #3 in pace in December.
See the full analysis for december stats here (ignore the year to date stats as they have obviously changed)
http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/1/28/1274057/where-wolves-opponents-score-on
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thunder defensive rating:
2009-10 – 102.7 points per 100 possessions – ranked 3rd.
2008-9 – 109.4 points per 100 possessions – ranked 20th.
most of the players are the same….. Durant, Green and Westbrook… primary differences… added Harden who is 5th in minutes and sefolosha’s minutes doubled, kristic played 30% more….collison still big contributor….
so changing a few players made a HUGE difference……
The famous kevin Durant case:
Durants on court off court in 2008-9 on court 112.6, off court 104.4
Durants on court off court in 2009-10 on court 103.0, off court 105.8
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Did I convince anyone?
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I'm not a big Jefferson fan
but I try to be fair and impartial.
There are several things that Jefferson lacks as a defender.
1. He doesn’t intimidate the other team from driving in the lane. There are two ways to do this (blocks/charges). He doesn’t consistently do either.
2. He doesn’t rotate quickly enough to cover anyone outside of 6 ft. I give him a pass on this since he isn’t overly athletic and probably wont ever be able to chase wings.
3. He get’s beat by his man a lot so that his teammates have to cover for him. There are going to be guys at PF who are quicker or longer than Al. The quicker guys will go around him and the taller guys will shoot over him. I don’t think that this will change. The guy isn’t going to become more athletic or taller.
The only thing that Al can do to be a better defender is awareness so that he draws more charges. If he does that, I think the fanbase will be estactic.
Yes, his rep would change...
But not necessarily because he IS a good defender – he’d just have stats that suggest he is.
I agree with your premise that defensive stats aren’t a particularly good measure of an individuals defense, and far more subjective measures must be considered – and one very important objective one – size/athleticism. But size/athleticism only give us defensive potential, not ability.
Intangible/Subjective measures:
BBIQ/awareness – does the guy ‘get’ the defense?
Effort – does the guy ‘try’ on defense?
Chemistry – does the guy have a good feel for his teammates, what they’ll do and how they’ll be?
Coachability – Assuming the coach has a clue about defense, can the guy pick up and learn the scheme?
Leadership/Communication – can the guy help direct/inspire his defense?
It’s hard to put a number on any of these things, but my impression of Big Al is that he is generally weak in all the intangible areas – and has limited athleticism which caps his potential anyway.
But put him next to Dwight Howard? His stats will look good!
I'll give you credit
for your Big Al passion, but I think, for the time being, the argument has run its course.
To me, its straightforward. When healthy, he’s great on offense, lackluster on defense, and no metric angle is going to change that. You’ve taken the whole thing to a me-against-the-world level, and I still think it’s kind of a false narrative. In another post (or comment), I believe you even stated that “many posters” suggested a trade for McGrady’s expiring. I believe you that someone did, but I don’t believe there are many.
I don’t think anybody who knows two licks about basketball or about this team wants to give Al away.
Let’s let the topic breathe.
Dark Love is a-Brewin...
I think the reason
the Magic give up more points when Vince is off the court is because some guy names Dwight Howard is usually off the court at the same time. Vince is on a starting unit with Dwight Howard. When the 2nd unit is in the game they give up more points. Not that difficult to figure out. Advanced statistics in basketball have come a long way but there still isn’t a better way to measure individual defense at this point thatn with the “eye test”. Jefferson doesn’t pass it.
One great defensive big man can change the whole outlook of a team. Dwight Howard is the obvious player who does that in the league, right now. KG was doing it in 2007.
It takes a more collective group of defenders to dominate perimeter defense. Especially with today’s hand-check rules, it’s too hard to stop quick penetrators, so it has more to do with scheme and matchups than it does having one great player.
With respect to evaluating individual defenders, it’s easy to see who gets torched in individual matchups, by watching the game. It’s not always easy to understand rotations, because we as fans don’t know what the coaches are telling the players. There is more than one way to handle defensive rotations, so if we think Love should have been at a certain spot to help, only Rambis can tell us if that’s right or wrong.
Big Al would be less of a problem if he played next to Dwight Howard — but it wouldn’t make him a good defender. In his defense, though, he wasn’t this bad before his injury(ies). Let’s hope he looks a little quicker after a full off-season to rest and rehab.
Let me give you another example (that contradicts your expectation) Shaq .... went from Phoenix who played little defense and up tempo to a defensive team - the cav's.
Shaq in Phoenix vs cleveland…..
In 2008-9 when “on court” phoenix gave up 114.0 pts per 100 possessions, and when off the court they gave up 110.6
So they were very bad and Shaq made them worse on defense.
In 2009-2010 when “on the court” cav’s gave up 104.5 pts per 100 possessions and when off the court they gave up 105.2
so Shaq looks like a much better defensive player both from an overall scoring standpoint and from his own individual performance…..
This team didn’t have a “howard” or a “KG”…. just a bunch of more talented defenders who were focused on that goal.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 12:33 PM CST reply actions
All you have to do is look at Ilgauskas on the Cavs from this year to last year. Last year, as a starter playing most of his minutes with Williams-West-James-Varejao, the Cavs D was four points better with him on the floor. This year, coming off the bench and playing a lot with Anthony Parker and J.J. Hickson, the Cavs are about a point worse defensively with him on the floor.
Certainly, surrounding a bad defender with good defenders is going to help out a player’s defensive stats. That’s why you have to use the “eye test”, too.
The Thunder are an interesting case... mostly same players but huge improvement in defense from last year to this year!
thunder defensive rating:
2009-10 – 102.7 points per 100 possessions – ranked 3rd.
2008-9 – 109.4 points per 100 possessions – ranked 20th.
most of the players are the same….. Durant, Green and Westbrook… primary differences… added Harden who is 5th in minutes and sefolosha’s minutes doubled, kristic played 30% more….collison still big contributor….
so changing a few players made a HUGE difference……
The famous kevin Durant case:
Durants on court off court in 2008-9 on court 112.6, off court 104.4
Durants on court off court in 2009-10 on court 103.0, off court 105.8
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 12:48 PM CST reply actions
Ya
but Durant actually improved his defense by trying to play it at a higher level, and that has benefited his team. I think Jonny especially but also Ramon, Brewer, and Wilkins would greatly appreciate a similar effort from Al.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
another fun example is stephan jackson - Warriors to Bobcats.....
Jackson’s on court/off court with Warriors in 2008-9 – On court – 114.2; Off court 114.2
jackson’s on court/off court with Bobcats in 2009-10 – on court 106.0; off court 99.8
in this case the overall performance improved from year to year from 114.2 to 106 but Jackson’s personal performance on his team showed a large drop off…..
[I haven’t seen many Bobcat games this year, but I’m guessing that jackson plays with the 2nd unit a lot since the team defensive efficiency is 103.2 this season. (5th in the NBA) Note: I’m assuming that the 1st unit’s defense is better than the 2nd unit. ]
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 1:01 PM CST reply actions
And so it goes.... the pattern is clear... when you put a QUOTE "bad defensive" player on a good defensive team.... the players defensive efficiency improves....
The players personal efficiency is also likely to improve (but as we’ve seen doesn’t always happen depending if that player plays with the first unit or the 2nd unit.) if that player is starter and mostly plays with the first unit.
If you are on a good defensive team and the best defenders are on the court with you…. you will show both personal and team improvement in defensive efficiency…
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 1:05 PM CST reply actions
Yes
and Al is still not a good defender. Watch him and ask yourself WWKGD? Then see if Al did it.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
Kevin Garrrrrrnett!
…playing into the theme of your other post regarding traded player comparisons, though I would estimate that b2b’s comment has little to do with their being traded for one another, and a lot more to do with KG as an all-nba defensive posterboy.
Dark Love is a-Brewin...
jefferson doesn't have the physical characteristics of KG in his prime... not many do.
doesn’t have the length – height and reach, can’t move as well laterally, not as much lift or as quick to the jump.
What you have to expect from jefferson is good positional team defense. If jefferson does that and gets his 1.5 to 2.0 blocks per game when healthy… thats what you can expect from jefferson. That should be enough if we have good defenders at other positions.,
Look at cleveland….. they don’t have a Howard or KG in the middle [pre-shaq last year if you prefer] but they are a very good defensive team – Cav’s were 3rd in defense last year. The Thunder are a very good defensive team – they are 3rd this year without a great big man in the middle. Utah is a good defensive team, without a big man – rated 9th. etc…
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 3:05 PM CST up reply actions
The physical limitations
are one thing. The mental limitations are another. He isn’t going to be blocking or altering shots like Howard. He needs to get better mentally so that he is in the right position before the opposition makes their move. Look at Love, he is much better at that than Jefferson and Love isn’t terribly athlethic either. I’d like to see Al take more charges. That is the defense that Al can excel at. It would be his way of protecting the rim and I’d be okay with that. I don’t see it at the moment.
I agree he can be better positionally, take more charges and block shots.....
But, I also think he is better positionally than most people realize. People blame him whenever there is a problem in the interior, but he has usually made the right rotation – generally the first one that stops penetration. Its the subsequent rotations, by hollins usually that never happen.
There are times when he lets guys go to the hoop without challenging the shot. I think people get upset at him. But more often than not its the right decision. If he has a poor angle and is just going to get another foul, without being able to make a good play, its better to let the “layup/dunk” etc happen.
Also when you look at Jefferson tonight please remember he has been hobbled by spraining the other knee.
I also think they forget that he averaged
2006-7 1.5 blocks per game
2007-8 1.5 blocks per game
2008-9 1.7 blocks per game.
They have fallen off to only 1.1 per year this season, with injury…..
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 3:44 PM CST up reply actions
It just baffles me that Al hasn’t figured out how to translate his good footwork and positioning ability on the offensive end to the defensive end of the floor.
We disagree. I think Jefferson has been playing good positional defense. I think playing with Hollins, who doesn't understand the game is killing the team defense, as well as league worst perimeter defense all season long.
jefferson won’ t show it tonight, since his “other” knee is bothering him, but when healthier, he was making good rotations, at least thats the way I saw it.
Watch him when he "generally’ is stopping the penetration, no one has rotated behind him and a pass flies to someone on the baseline behind jefferson. Not when Love is in their, but when most of the others are…..
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 5:39 PM CST up reply actions
by the way, thats one reason why I have emphasized that jefferson and Love together did well protecting the pain in December, the only month they worked together extensively.
they are both making good rotations, not being saddled with rookie or young player mistakes by guys like Hollins…
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 3:46 PM CST up reply actions
Yes!
doesn’t have the length – height and reach, can’t move as well laterally, not as much lift or as quick to the jump.
What you have to expect from jefferson is good positional team defense. If jefferson does that and gets his 1.5 to 2.0 blocks per game when healthy… thats what you can expect from jefferson. That should be enough if we have good defenders at other positions.
Is Jefferson a good positional defense specialist? No. Does he have size, length, or superior lateral movement? No. Is he, despite his offensive stats, in the same realm as Tim Duncan, David Robinson, Moses Malone, Shaq, and others? No.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
we'll have agree to disagree. I do think jefferson can be "good enough" on defense to win a championship.
Look at the thunder who are #3 in the NBA in defense this year. Kristic is their center with Collison backing him up. The PF is Green. None of them has great length, lateral mobility, lift or is quick to the jump.
yet they are still 3rd in the NBA in defense.
It can be done, if we have athleticism at the other positions. Brewer is a good start. If we added either Turner or Johnson plus bring Rubio over and add the 3rd “big” with ability to provide what jefferson and love can’t if necessary…. thats a good line up in my view.
But I have no way to prove it until the wolves bring in the talent, so they don’t have to play guys like Hollins, Pech or Jawai. and have better defenders at the perimeter.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 23, 2010 5:32 PM CST up reply actions
Jefferson needs to be the 1st or 2nd offensive option on a team with great defenders
Put him on a team with a great two way player, add two other guys who focus on defense, and another average two way player. That team will allow the other players to cover up Al’s deficient defense.
On a team like the Wolves that lacks all around defense, Jefferson’s flaws just become more apparent.
T-wolves best defender...
So far from the 2 games i’ve seen is Darko…..just sayin. If you watched the game tonight Darko played almost the entire 4th quarter
someone asked in another thread if jefferson was every paired with a good defensive center... thought the answer was relevant here also.
yes, when jefferson and perkins were paired when jefferson was with Boston. But they both were young then.
That was 4 years ago when both perkins and Jefferson were 21 y.o. Doc was a poor defensive coach. It wasn’t until they brought in Thibodeau (the year after jefferson left), that the Celtics developed good defensive schemes.
The Celtics in 2006-7 gave up 99 pts per game – they were 18th in ppg given up. Defensive Rating per Basketball Reference was 16th. But that is really too high because the celtics spent most of that season tanking. Doc and Ainge spent the whole latter part of the season, sitting various players especially against weak opponents competing for lottery picks. Without tanking that season, the celtics probably would have been at least 12th or 14th in defensive rating.
If Jefferson was healthy and played with Perkins today with the added maturity and experience of both of them and if they played for a good defensive coach, I think they would be in the top 5 or 10 for interior defense.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 4:59 PM CST reply actions
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