Hollinger Article on Plus/Minus
by Jose Cordoba on Feb 26, 2010 9:08 AM CST
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http://insider.espn.go.com/insider/insider/news/story?id=4946751
The Whole Argument is summed up nicely here-
"Some insiders like the stat because it accounts for factors -- quality D, effective screens -- that don't show up in box scores. Others, like Nuggets stats guru Dean Oliver, say, "It's noisy, uncertain and kind of a black box -- you have a hard time understanding why it's coming out the way it is."
The stat is also much better at assessing a player's value to a particular team than comparing him across teams. For example, it can reveal Wade's value to the Heat, but not whether he'd be more valuable than LeBron James is to the Cavs. It also doesn't factor in substitution patterns. The Thunder's Jeff Green has a league-worst minus-13.6 rating, which doesn't take into account that he's often the lone starter running with four bench players and he's logged twice as many minutes without Kevin Durant or Russell Westbrook as last season, when his rating was minus-3.51."
A few tidbits
Jonny Flynn, Ryan Hollins, Al Jefferson, Corey Brewer, and Ryan Gomes make up by far the worst 5 man unit in the entire league at -21.70 per 48 minutes. The next worse group is Brook Lopez, Chris Douglas-Roberts, Courtney Lee, Devin Harris, and Yi at -13.85 per 48 minutes.
The three players who benefit their team from being on the floor: D.Wade, Anderson Varejao, and Kobe Bryant
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Nice. Whatever you think of plus/minus
It’s pretty satisfying to know that the Wolves FREAKING STARTING LINEUP is the worst unit in the league.
Where’s the lighter fluid?
by Eric in Madison on Feb 26, 2010 9:25 AM CST reply actions
Stop!
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
Use Petrol.
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
lets look at on court/off court for those 5 players...Net = on court minus off court
Net on court minus off court…
Gomes Plus 5.7
Jefferson Plus 2.3 [fighting injury most of year]
Brewer – Minus 0.9
Flynn – Minus 7.5
Hollins – Minus 9.8
if this were a team focused on winning….these three would be in the starting line up.
Love plus 6.8
Sessions plus 5.3
Ellington plus 3.6
So starting line up
Jefferson
Love
Gomes
Ellington
Sessions
If you look at our best 5 man line up… thats what its been…..
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 9:43 AM CST reply actions
Great--
Our best 5 man line up is comprised of one guy (Love) who represents a cost-effective, young player. Sessions is believed to have been brought in as a back-up/trade asset, W’Ellington is a bench player whom we hope to replace with a veteran, Gomes is hopefully gone, and as for Jefferson . . . well, we haven’t really covered how we all feel about him yet.
You mean to say some of us have particular feelings toward Jefferson?
I thought the board was largely neutral…
If only we had someone
who would make us a gratuitous amount of fanposts dedicated to Al Jefferson’s domination on the interior…
lol... criticize me for many things, thats fine... but I reposted on others initial postings as often as my own!
As this example shows…
This was written by Jose Cordoba, not me.
When responding to someone who has made multiple points in a post, I sometimes respond to each issue with a separate post.
I also just forget things, so I add them.
You are more organized than I am when writing posts. so congrats to you.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 27, 2010 4:22 PM CST up reply actions
What you always have to keep in mind that plus/minus doesn’t account for how good the opponent’s playing 5 are. You could say that starting always means more minutes against quality players since at least the start of the game is against the opponents best time.
Ending a game is the same.
I think as that grows we could see some kind of combination of plus minus combined with the average per of the opposing player at the same position or even the average per of the opposing 5 while on the court …
Who’s feeling bored!
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
by Wim (Belgium) on Feb 28, 2010 4:26 PM CST up reply actions
Love and Gomes are the only 2 wolves who outscore their direct cover in the game......
so when jefferson and Love are on the floor we outscore C and PF… every other position outscores us…. again from 82 games…
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 9:47 AM CST reply actions
The problem with +/- is
take any current Wolf, put him on a team with LeBron and Deron Williams, and their +/- will skyrocket. It’s a good tool when used the right way, but far from perfect. It also does a poor job of evaluating a player who is in the wrong system for his game (say Flynn perhaps).
true.. many statistical tools have flaws... but as hollinger said... if you are comparing across teams its hard, but look at personnel within the same team especically if rotations are all mixed up as they have been on the wolves..
it can be more revealing
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 4:28 PM CST up reply actions
Fair point, but not true entirely proved by the only player I can think of...
Pavlovic:
09-10 (Wolves): -9.2
08-09 (Cavs): -7.2
I did a whole post showing the other side.... and pavlovic would have been much higher in the games he started...
see the posting below – on what happens when players go from bad teams to good ones on defense and specifically if they play with the first string….
See Pav’s numbers with Cav’s when he started…
http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/2/23/1322895/how-do-we-evaluate-individual
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 27, 2010 9:36 AM CST up reply actions
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