Kevin Love remarkably bad "at the rim"
by littleboxes on Feb 26, 2010 4:48 PM CST
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PrintInspired by a post at celtics hub about Glen Davis, I made the trip over to Hoopdata to ask the following question:
Where does Kevin Love rank in terms of FG% in "at the rim" shots relative to other power forwards who have played at least 30 games and play at least 20 minutes per game.? This is for the 2010 season.
Here's the link to the Hoopdata area shot chart data, you may need to click on at the rim FG% to get the correct sort.
(ED Note: I added a break and bumped this to the front page. More "at the rim" goodness below the fold.)
37 players qualify for the list and at the rim FG % varies from 70% to 51%. Love, ranked 33rd, is at 55% FG% at the rim. Ranked 1st, of course, is LMA at 70%. Ah, the advantages of being God's sole perfect creation.
A cursory examination of these data by yours truly noted that there appears to be at least a weak positive correlation between % assisted and FG% at the rim. Given that an ally-oop is an assist, this makes some sense. Great players like Chris Bosh, Dirk Nowitzski, and (ahem) Al Harrington seem to overcome (or produce) rather low assist rates. But the top of the list in terms of FG% looks very similar to the top of the list in terms of % assisted.
My hypothesis, after a (ahem) thorough data mining exercise, is that Kevin Love can and will finish better at the rim once the team gets a better PG. But he will never finish as well at the rim as players like Bosh and Dirk.
Remember, knowing is half the battle.
The end.
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This will always be a weakness
the hope is that he is able to improve into the average range rather than being at the bottom. Having better PG play will help, but he can learn to do better even with his lack of athleticism.
by Eric in Madison on Feb 26, 2010 5:03 PM CST reply actions
I think lack of athleticism could definitely play a part.
Not only is he not getting way to for lobs, alleys and put-backs, but tonight was a great example: Love received a great pass in the lane (from Sessions I believe), and, although in traffic, he got down a two-handed flush, but barely cleared the rim. He might have gotten both hands about 6" over the rim…
part of the "problem" in my view is "looking for contact".
Love is smart enough to want to get to the free through line. He looks for ways to generate contact especially down low. Especially when “under the hoop” with defenders around, Love is mostly trying to get to the free throw line. When it works he gets points that way, which are not counted towards at the rim baskets. When it doesn’t work, it hurts his FG% from close.
So to get a true stat you’d have to find a way to measure his REAL “scoring percentage” near the hoop including the free throws generated under the basket.
At least thats my take.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 5:18 PM CST reply actions
That's a pretty good point, KLJ.
A stat that took that into account would be good. That’s one where LMA, God’s perfect creation, might suffer a bit.
by princelyfrank on Feb 26, 2010 6:23 PM CST up reply actions
I’d wager LMA just doesn’t shoot at the rim all that often. The bulk of his shots always seem to come from midrange when I watch him, although he’s obviously better than Love given that he’s more athletic and like 3 inches taller.
Good point on the FT’s generated. Still, Love is terrible down there. He’s started trying to clear space by using pump fakes when he gets it near the hoop and he’s guarded, yet he still gets stuffed on what seems like 90% of those shots. I think he will get better eventually, though, as he’s a smart guy with a wide body. He just needs to realize he can’t go straight up with it all the time, and that sometimes it’s even better to throw it outside if you’ve got 2 6’11+ defenders hanging off you.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Given that Love ranked 10th
in attempts at the rim per game, I’m going to extrapolate out and suggest that the low fg% is due to a high amount of low percentage tip attempts off the offensive board. There’s no other explanation for how he’s getting more attempts at the rim than some of those other players. It fits well with the very low percentage of assisted shots. So, while some offensive boards no doubt lead to high percentage putbacks, quite a few are heavily contested scrums amidst a tangle of arms and hands. The tip attempts are particularly low percentage. The good thing is that a missed putback is essentially a neutral proposition, since it’s the fruitless use of a possession that otherwise wouldn’t have existed.
That said, it would be great if he could just hammer down a few more of those offensive rebounds.
This will also decrease his offensive rebounding numbers
If he makes more he will not get as many tip rebounds off his own shots.
After I miss a layup but then hit the putback
I always crack the same joke about padding my stats, and my buddies always groan the same groan.
by princelyfrank on Feb 26, 2010 6:24 PM CST up reply actions
This is a great point. He definitely gets more tip attempts up than a guy like LMA, who’s too busy sitting around outside waiting for jumpers and only gets rebounds that fall into his lap. An extra tip or two per game is going to have an affect on your %s, especially for a lower volume shooter like Love.
He does also get stuffed A LOT.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I applaud the rosy picture KLJ and DS are painting and they may be partially correct. However, I have to think his low fg% at the rim is b/c he gets blocked a ton.
I can’t remember the source, but wasn’t there a stat last year that Love and Foye were blocked at a very high rate for their position?
its true Love does get blocked.... but very often when he's blocked there is contract, created by Loved intentional actions.
Most of Love’s free throws come on at the rim shot attempts, with a few on rebounds and almost none of the variety we saw in the last game getting someone to bite on a jumper {thats a new wrinkle in his game}.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 6:43 PM CST up reply actions
all of the wolves big men do suffer, because their PG are not creating easy hoops for them....little boxes in correct on that.
If Love was playing with a Rondo, Nash, Kidd etc…..he would be getting lots of easy hoops. But those would be in addition to those he gets in offensive rebounding action.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 6:47 PM CST reply actions
As for Tip In's Love is hitting about 44.7%.
Most big men seem to hit around 50% plus or minus 5%. [you can see the stats on 82 games]
[I looked at big men for Atlanta, boston, Chicago, Cleveland, & Dallas]
And exception is Al who hits tips at 72.7%. But he is the exception, not the rule.
It should be noted that all of he wolves big men are less focused on offensive rebounds and more focused on getting back on defense in recent weeks, especially against teams with good transition offense.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 26, 2010 6:56 PM CST reply actions
My point
is that tip ins are low percentage shots, not just for Love, but that a higher percentage of his shots at the rim are tip ins, as opposed to say alley oop receptions
there is some truth there, in my view, but thats mostly due to playing with PG's who are not great at driving and dishing...
If Love played with guys like Rondo, Nash etc…. he would have many more easy hoops, even if they were not alley oops…[and I’ve seen Love do a few alley oops]
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Feb 27, 2010 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
I'm not sure his FG% around the basket really tells an accurate story about his effectiveness...
around that area. Others have already pointed out his ability to draw contact, and I would add that although he’ll miss some bunnies and get some shots blocked, he seems to regain control of the ball on a remarkable amount of those (this isn’t based on any complex statistical analysis, just what I’ve gathered from watching).
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