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Breaking down the Wolves individually at the (sorta) halfway point

When I posted about the Wolves' individual numbers at the 20-game mark, I simply looked at the % of playing time and the PER and DPER of the players.  This time, I decided to look closer at the individual breakdowns leading to the PER and DPER for each player at each position.  The numbers I am using are a couple of weeks old and don't include any recent games; I saved the info from 82games.com a couple of weeks ago a little after the halfway mark of the season, but haven't had time to study them and write anything up until now.  Again, my standard caveat of this being just an analysis of the numbers still applies; I'll let you guys determine how the numbers coincide to what you see on the court.

One thing to note (that for some reason I didn't notice until recently), is that the individual PER info on 82games is per 48 minutes, and this makes the numbers look a little bigger than the per 36 minute numbers on basketball-reference.  

Starting from the PG position and working our way down:

Star-divide

Jonny Flynn (PG-60%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PG

19.8

0.461

6.1

28%

3.8

6.5

4.6

0.1

2.4

23.2

15.1

Opp.

PG

17.5

0.457

5.3

21%

5.3

11.9

3.8

0.5

3.2

20.4

18.7

Flynn's PER comes in around average, which is pretty good for a rookie PG.  His DPER is higher than we might like, but take into account that a) he is a rookie, and b) a large portion of that DPER stems from the ridiculously high assists his opponents get.  I'm sure part of that assist total is due to Jonny's defense, but I imagine an awful lot of it comes from the lack of defense from his teammates allowing a high number of open looks and easy buckets (the Wolves are 27th in opp FG% and 28th in opp eFG).

Ramon Sessions (PG-38%; SG-5%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PG

13.9

0.464

6.4

34%

6.9

7.4

4.0

0.1

4.0

17.1

14.0

Opp.

PG

15.9

0.512

5.0

14%

4.4

8.7

4.1

0.2

3.7

20.2

15.5

Player

SG

14.8

0.516

6.7

38%

3.8

3.8

2.4

0.0

4.8

19.1

11.8

Opp.

SG

17.7

0.581

2.9

18%

5.7

11.0

3.3

0.5

3.8

22.4

20.1

I'm at a bit of a loss to explain Sessions' numbers.  He's really not seeing significantly less playing time at the point over last year (41%), but his shots, FT's and assists are all way down resulting in a much lower PER at the point (20.6 last year).  His PG DPER is also a little worse, mostly due to a much higher opp eFG.  The Wolves have wisely limited his numbers at SG; his numbers there have always been worse than his PG numbers.

Wayne Ellington (SG-33%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

SG

15.4

0.453

2.3

17%

6.4

2.8

2.4

0.1

1.9

15.8

10.0

Opp.

SG

15.5

0.510

4.2

28%

5.4

5.1

2.4

0.1

3.1

18.7

12.8

Assuming Ellington has been playing primarily against reserves, his PER is poor even for a rookie SG.  He needs to seriously increase that eFG to make up for the fact that he is bringing nothing else to the table.

Corey Brewer (SG-55%; SF-8%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

SG

18.6

0.448

4.4

36%

6.0

2.9

3.4

0.6

3.8

19.6

12.4

Opp.

SG

19.1

0.572

4.0

28%

5.4

4.4

2.6

0.4

3.2

24.6

19.4

Player

SF

15.5

0.400

8.4

38%

8.1

3.1

3.7

1.2

6.2

17.7

10.6

Opp.

SF

18.0

0.647

5.3

37%

9.0

3.7

1.9

0.6

4.0

27.9

25.4

I know this has been discussed previously including the post I did after 20 games, but Corey's overwhelming problem is that defensive eFG.  I think the problem is a combo of the things that have been theorized beforehand: the eFG is so high that there is obviously some fundamental problem (or problems) that Corey is having on defense this year; but since his opponent's eFG's in past seasons have not been nearly this bad, something else such as poor teammate play or the coaching scheme is having some sort of effect his defense.

Aleksandar Pavlovic (SG-5%; SF-21%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

SG

19.9

0.321

1.0

25%

7.7

3.6

5.6

0.5

4.6

12.8

0.0

Opp.

SG

12.3

0.438

7.2

37%

4.1

6.6

2.6

0.5

1.0

16.3

14.8

Player

SF

15.5

0.423

1.2

18%

7.6

3.9

2.6

0.4

4.3

13.7

7.8

Opp.

SF

16.9

0.408

4.5

28%

6.5

3.6

2.0

1.1

2.3

17.7

12.7

That PER at SG is not a misprint.  It's kinda interesting to see how skewed his numbers are, especially looking at PF and FTA stats.  And that's one hellacious eFG he sports while at SG.

Damien Wilkins (SF-40%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

SF

12.5

0.444

4.1

29%

8.4

4.5

2.2

0.7

3.9

14.4

14.4

Opp.

SF

18.0

0.535

5.2

29%

7.2

3.3

2.4

0.4

3.1

23.6

18.9

Both of Wilkins' PER numbers are a little higher than I thought they might be.  If you don't look at the Pts or FG stats his lines look pretty respectable, but you could say that about a number of Wolves.

Ryan Gomes (SF-28%; PF-19%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

SF

14.9

0.464

1.9

16%

6.6

2.3

2.5

0.3

3.6

15.4

10.1

Opp.

SF

17.6

0.433

5.5

24%

7.0

4.3

1.7

0.5

3.3

19.7

14.7

Player

PF

20.4

0.513

3.5

26%

10.4

2.8

2.2

0.8

4.8

23.7

19.7

Opp.

PF

15.6

0.479

4.6

33%

9.3

4.5

1.8

1.7

3.7

19.0

18.6

Both last season and so far this season Gomes has been better overall as an inside player than on the wing.  I originally thought this might be linked to his 3-pt shooting, but he's got a fairly good percentage beyond the arc, so unless he's actually taking more quality 3's at PF I'm not sure why he's so much better offensively there.  I'd be interested to know what differences you guys see on the court between the two positions for him.

Brian Cardinal (PF-7%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PF

7.2

0.429

1.4

9%

4.1

4.1

1.0

0.7

8.6

7.6

6.3

Opp.

PF

15.9

0.511

5.2

32%

13.1

2.4

3.4

1.4

5.9

20.0

15.9

The only stat you need to know: he's barely out-rebounding Jonny Flynn.  On the other hand, his assists aren't too far behind Jonny's, so if Sessions gets traded we don't need to look far for a backup PG.

Kevin Love (PF-34%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PF

17.1

0.494

8.2

54%

18.5

4.2

2.7

0.7

3.9

23.7

25.9

Opp.

PF

17.9

0.515

4.0

38%

13.6

2.8

2.2

2.2

6.5

21.1

18.8

Stop-n-Pop has already put out a lot of info on Love's numbers this year, so I'll just add that I'm very impressed with his PF & FTA disparities in just his second season.  Imagine how good he might be in a couple of years.

Al Jefferson (PF-25%; C-41%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PF

22.4

0.461

4.6

34%

12.6

2.6

2.9

1.6

3.5

23.9

18.8

Opp.

PF

16.5

0.509

3.1

43%

14.4

2.6

3.5

1.6

5.1

19.3

16.7

Player

C

22.4

0.492

6.6

39%

13.7

3.2

2.4

1.4

4.1

26.5

22.5

Opp.

C

15.5

0.542

4.7

50%

13.1

4.1

3.4

2.8

5.8

20.2

19.1

Jefferson's numbers at center have improved significantly both offensively and defensively since the 20-game mark; I'm not sure how much of it is due to his improving health and stamina and how much is due to Love returning.  Compare his stats at center versus Love's stats; the only real difference is Love's crazy rebounding numbers.  Now imagine Love's numbers if he took an extra 5-7 shots per 48 minutes.

Ryan Hollins (PF-8%; C-24%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PF

12.4

0.561

4.8

43%

9.7

2.1

3.0

0.6

9.1

17.9

13.7

Opp.

PF

18.8

0.548

10.6

25%

11.5

2.7

3.0

1.5

3.3

29.4

25.4

Player

C

11.8

0.523

5.1

46%

8.1

2.0

3.8

1.9

7.5

15.8

10.6

Opp.

C

16.5

0.568

5.6

44%

13.3

2.8

2.8

1.9

6.5

22.5

19.2

Judging by Hollins' PF and FTA stats at power forward, I'm thinking he might be a little overmatched at that position.  He's been shooting well, so his PER at center would look better if he took more shots, but he's still be undermined by his lousy rebounding.

Nathan Jawai (PF-2%; C-14%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

PF

12.0

0.500

6.0

78%

9.5

1.7

2.6

1.7

7.7

16.3

13.4

Opp.

PF

14.6

0.647

6.0

41%

9.5

1.7

5.2

1.7

5.2

23.2

16.4

Player

C

14.5

0.446

4.0

75%

12.8

2.6

3.3

0.7

6.7

15.8

13.2

Opp.

C

10.2

0.569

5.1

58%

14.2

2.1

2.6

4.6

5.1

14.5

18.4

I kind of like Jawai, but I think he needs minutes at PF to have any chance of being a contributor, and that's not happening on this team.

Oleksiy Pecherov (C-18%)

Pos

FGA

eFG%

FTA

iFG

Reb

Ast

T/O

Blk

PF

Pts

PER*

Player

C

20.6

0.440

3.0

24%

13.9

1.4

3.2

1.4

6.2

20.8

14.0

Opp.

C

17.1

0.597

6.2

54%

15.0

1.9

2.8

3.2

5.5

24.8

24.0

Pecherov can contribute a little on the offensive half of the floor, but considering the reserves he's playing against he's got to be one of the worst defensive players in the league.  What frightens you more:  Pavlovic with the ball or Pecherov trying to defend?

One last thing I noticed that I would like to point out:  Flynn's defensive eFG is considerably better than the other three guards on the team.  For those of you who watch the games on a regular basis, is this truly indicative of his defense, or is there a lot of switching going on where the opposing PG ends up being shut down more by a bigger player and Jonny's numbers look the better for it?  If it's the former, then Flynn has a bright future ahead of him as his defense is better than anticipated.  If it's the latter, however, then that might explain some of the other Wolves' poor eFG numbers, especially perhaps Brewer's.  I'd love to hear any observations that might explain this.

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In regards to your last comment

I’m interested in watching to see what’s going on with Flynn’s man… It seems as if he let’s guys blow up on him on the regular, but his numbers are incredibly low (Except for turnovers).
My initial guess would be that he is blowing rotation assignments. This would lead to his man being (almost) double teamed and one other guy being wide open (possibly Corey’s guy or whoever’s man set the screen). It’s something we’ll have to watch, but I’m guessing he ends up chasing his man off the screen instead of covering for the guy who is already covering for him.

by Mplax on Feb 3, 2010 10:57 AM CST reply actions  

High screen and roll

I think Flynn really struggles with high screens too, which often leads to him getting stuck in no-man’s land and someone else picking up his man, leading to an easy assist for the PG. Flynn needs to get tougher going over the top of screens, or knowing players that he can go underneath on. The bigs play a part in this too. Ryan Hollins has the length and mobility to effectively jump out on the screens and get back to his man. I think this is what Rambis really likes about Hollins, despite all of his other warts. Love and Jefferson may at times understand technically what to do on high screens, but don’t necessarily have the recovery speed of a guy like Hollins. This is why it’s tough to make definitive judgements about perimeter vs. interior defense. The reality is that the bigs influence perimeter defense and the guards can influence interior defense. What we do know is that we don’t have enough guys that can cover a lot of ground defensively. Brewer can, Hollins can, and that’s about it.

by Rascal Flatts on Feb 3, 2010 11:37 AM CST up reply actions  

Good sign with Jefferson

In Jefferson’s 3 years with Minnesota, this is his best season in terms of DPER. Granted, he isn’t locking anyone down, but his DPER has been on a slow, steady decline since being traded to Minnesota. Also, his on the floor points against per 100 possessions have also gradually decreased, going from 116 in 07-08 to 112.3 in 08-09 to 111.7 this year. So his gains as an individual defender is being mirrored by the squad as a whole while’s he’s on the floor. Let’s hope this trend continues.

by Rascal Flatts on Feb 3, 2010 11:55 AM CST reply actions  

The most impressive part about this

is that he is doing it with a crappier team. While I don’t put too much stock into these metrics, it’s still nice to see and helps to affirm what our eyes are suggesting.

by Mplax on Feb 3, 2010 12:58 PM CST up reply actions  

Watch from AZ

I am a die hard Wolves fan living in AZ. I get to watch the games thanks to Directv and their NBA package. So, I have seen all their games this year that were televised by one team or the other (probably all but three) and I will weigh in on your last question. My vantage point tells me that Flynn is a better defender of opposing PGs than we all first thought. However, when he gets switched off on to almost always a bigger, taller, and usually stronger man, then he seems to struggle. He probably always will given his dimunutive size. Now, having said all that, I do think that he has been pretty solid as a rookie. Finally, on the flip side, I have been a little disapointed in Sessions so far.

by scottysnowski on Feb 3, 2010 9:56 PM CST reply actions  

The Defensive Statistics

I have seen most Wolves games this year as a season ticket holder and on television. I don’t think the defensive statistics tell the whole story. It pretty much starts with Flynn’s inability to guard most starting point guards and the rest of the defense is playing catch-up from that point. It ends with terrible rotations to the perimeter, not only by Flynn, but by Jefferson and Love as well. The one thing I noticed in the Dallas game last night is that the rotations to the perimeter were visibly better. There was some hustle there, especially with Hollins.

Another thing I have noticed is that early in the season Jefferson got a lot of help on defense. As soon as our first line of defense (Flynn) was breached, the whole team would collapse to the paint leaving the opponent’s best outside shooters open for threes. You would always see Brewer flying back to the perimeter too late to effectively contest a shot. I think one of the reasons there may have been a lot of help down low early was to keep Jefferson from making a lot of quick lateral or twisting moves on his surgically repaired knee. But this collapse scheme also in part explains why Jefferson’s defensive statistics look better and Brewer’s look poor.

Another observation is that we have been getting killed a lot in transition. That is going to hurt our guards’ defensive more than our bigs, even if our bigs are there to contest the shots. Jefferson fails many times to contest driving wings at the basket. Again, that statistic will be against our guards. But this has also appeared to improve in recent weeks. I can’t help but imagine how adding another quick defender like Tyrus Thomas would help this team. Or another longer defender like a Robin Lopez or Taj Gibson (same height as Jefferson but quicker and with a 2" longer wingspan). Even if adding that defender came at the expense of losing Jefferson’s post moves (and exploding contract).

Defensively as a unit this team has shown marked improvement in the past week. I’d attribute a lot of it to better effort from Hollins and Jefferson down low. The rotations to the perimeter have been better. And we aren’t sending as much help to the paint. I expect the defensive will become more consistent with in-game observation by the end of the season.

by Mike B. on Feb 6, 2010 7:00 AM CST reply actions  

Hollins has made a huge difference

with how much ground he can cover. This is simply something Love and Gomes (as PF’s) can’t replicate. If he can tighten up other aspects of his game, he just might be our magical third big we need to compliment Love and Jefferson.

by Rascal Flatts on Feb 6, 2010 8:16 AM CST up reply actions  

One other thing on Brewer's Defense

He has had big problems defending small forwards this year that are stronger than him. He also struggles defending smaller, quicker shooting guards at times. It would be interesting to isolate Brewer’s statistics for the 2nd quarter of the season. Also think these numbers support why Brewer is not a F/G but a G/F.

by Mike B. on Feb 6, 2010 7:13 AM CST reply actions  

25 and 2

25 minutes is what Love is averaging in the eleven games since he was “promoted” to the bench.

2 is the number of times Love has played 35 or more minutes in a game this season.

I have no interest in watching this team if this is what “player development” means: its best player getting 7th-man minutes; sitting and watching Ryan Hollins let rebounds bounce off of his high-flying chest. Wake me up next season when something big has changed.

But will anything change? If Jefferson and Love can’t be on the floor at the same time—and it’s pretty obvious that this is what Rambis has concluded—then one has to be moved, certainly. They each must be hoping to be the one moved.

Rambis, for all of his self-described player development focus, is starting to remind me a lot of Wittman. His passive-aggressive style of throwing the players under the bus with an exaggerated sigh is wearing very thin. How about taking some responsibility on occasion? Does the coaching staff bear any responsibility when the same mistakes and lack of effort occur over and over again? When the team is consistently unprepared to start the first or third quarter? Who’s responsibility is it when Pavlovic checks himself into the game?

We knew this team was going to lose. But we hoped (and were told) that it would play hard and entertaining basketball. And we expected to see player development as a focus. Again, Pavlovic?

It’s impossible to watch this squad and not see that their self-confidence is plummeting. Flynn is heading in the same direction as Randy Foye did after all of the jerking around that Wittman did with him.

I’ve got four pairs of tickets left in the ten-game packet I bought. At this point, I don’t know if I’ll use any of them.

by Bachballer on Feb 20, 2010 11:37 AM CST reply actions  

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