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Interesting...
Do I like either of the trades involving the Timberwolves? Maybe, but not really.
In regard to getting Rudy Gay, can the Wolves re-sign him? If we believe we can then we should go after him, though Rubio’s rights are probably too steep a price.
In regard to the getting Kevin Martin and Jason Thompson from Sacramento for Big Al, I am more inclined to this one, but find Kevin Martin’s injury proneness to be troubling and Jason Thompson could maybe play center along side of Kevin Love. Maybe would give them both of our middle first round picks for their first rounder next year. That’s probably a pipe dream though.
The other front page link to the
wolves possible trades from a GM standpoint makes much more sense. Option B that is. I just have a hard time believing that the wolves are going to open the purse strings only to have the fiscal door slammed in their face come lockout. Gay will have that type of deal. If two of three between Bosh, Bron Bron, and Wade resign, that leaves alot of teams…cough…knicks/Nets/Chicago…cough with lots of money to spend and fan bases to appeal that can outbid us. They should each get one of the big three and Gay/JJ. That’s all she wrote. So if we trade for Gay and someone gives him max money, do you want to match or let him walk?
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 3, 2010 6:21 PM CST up reply actions
With the new CBA approaching, but it's structure being totally unknown
I’d be very wary of any contract commitment beyond the start of the new CBA. The Wolves should focus on picking up players with one or two years left on contracts after this season.
Your free agency take could be right on the money. Charles Barkley was on PTI a few weeks ago and mentioned how the NBA could be in big trouble next season because if free agency plays out wrong there will be several teams (in major markets) that are totally uncompetitive because they cleared a bunch of cap space but couldn’t bring in any players, or a couple teams lose the only players they have to free agency.
agreed
Everyone is so sick of losing that we impulsively demand to acquire a big name only to end up exactly where we were in the first place. Mediocrity. And expensive mediocrity at that.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 3, 2010 8:08 PM CST up reply actions
For the record
I will be referring to Lebron as “Bron Bron” from now on. Hidden H.P. reference there for you.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 3, 2010 8:07 PM CST up reply actions
Let’s just call him Bron Weasley.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Feb 4, 2010 1:37 PM CST up reply actions
Bron Weasley' new song
Weasley is our King,
Weasley is our King,
He didn’t let the Bball in
Weasley is our King.
Weasley can save anything,
He never leaves a single ring,
That’s why Twolves all sing:
Weasley is our King.
…if only this were true.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 4, 2010 3:18 PM CST up reply actions
when you say "option B"
do you mean the deal with Sacramento or some other deal I am not aware of?
Also, is the basic consensus within this conversation that the wolves are best served having as much cap space available GOING INTO cba talks? That is so we can make a big splash under the new rules?
I agree that no big free agent is coming our way. I also agree with the guy bvelow who says we do not want to take the gamble on Gay.
Beyond this, the only player whose contract matters beyond this year in any real financial sense for the wolves is Big Al’s. If we are rally committed to lightening our financial load going into cba talks why not go a step further and offer Big Al for Thompson, Casspi, and Kenny Thomas’ expiring? Maybe get Sacramento’s draft pick for one (or two) of our middlers. Thompson and Casspi both seem like serious prospects to me. Are they enough for Big Al, probably not, just throwing this out there.
Without the pick swap I don't think I would do it
with it, I don’t think they would do it… which means the deal is probably close to being a good one somewhere or another.
I wanted Gay initially, but now he won’t be worth it. As it has been mentioned, someone will pay him a large amount and we will be left to match after we already gave up Rubio and Sessions? I’d rather take my chances with keeping Rubio and Sessions on the offchance that Gay comes here in FA on his own free will.
This is the unfortunate truth. Gay is good, but he’s not THAT good. I just can’t see a scenario where he doesn’t end up getting overpaid, and it’s not worth it to hamstring our franchise for the next 5 years by paying Rudy 15 million a year.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Option B in the link
was a trade with GS to get Morrow and just use our draft picks wisely. I believe he assumed we got pick # 2 and drafted Turner and somehow lucked into Monroe with our second pick. He mentioned that after this core + other draft picks developed, you would trade Al for another player assuming it would not leave a void in the post.
It is adamently against trading for bigtime players as that is a quick fix to a long term problem, which is drafting solid prospects and actually getting them to mature. Which almost every NBA championship team has done for their core stars.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 3, 2010 8:05 PM CST up reply actions
Here, here on that last point...
….with a caveat:
While I agree that championships don’t get won by trading for The Guy, the Wolves are transferring from "get as many assets as possible" mode to "use assets" mode and if that means getting someone like Rudy Gay at a bargain price with his matching rights while not giving up as much as they normally would in a case, then so be it. Is he a wing on a championship team? He is on the Cavs. He is on the Lakers. He is on the Magic. Or, in other words, he is next to LeBron, Kobe, and Howard. Getting Gay isn’t the gamble. Getting The Guy in the draft is. I have said it over and over and over on this site for many moons now: The best GM in the world is only worth 45-55 wins. 55-Championship requires massive amounts of draft-related luck. Short of landing The Guy in a trade (which almost never happens, and certainly doesn’t happen with the Wolves), this team will never be a championship contender without getting lucky in the draft. They just need to make sure they maximize their current roster value in the event that someone like John Wall or Evan Turner morphs into D-Wade or Kobe.
For what it’s worth, I’m of the opinion that if they can turn $12 -15 million of power forward cap space into $8-12 mil of wing cap space of equal value to the team, they do it. However that happens, we’ll just have to wait and see.
BTW: All of this boils down to what we have been writing about for almost 3 years on this site: nothing comes together without the arrival of Basketball Jesus.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Like the Sac trade...
I view Martin and Jefferson similarly…volume scorers, that don’t do to much else to help a team win, and do some things that help teams lose (defense). Martin, however, makes 75% of Jefferson’s salary on a deal with the same duration. So, Martin gives you the same scoring along with the same negatives, but at a substantial cap savings, while filling a positional need and removing a positional redundancy (the slow footed, too short big man). Is this a no-brainer?
Plus, we get an excellent big man prospect, who could potentially work very well with Love and Flynn in a fast pace offense.
Plus, plus Martin’s contract is not awful. He’s movable if we can upgrade at the 2 in the draft.
In a heartbeat I do this deal. But does Sac really want to get rid of Martin bad enough for 4 years of Big Al at $12-15M?!?!
Martin also plays 60 games a year if you’re lucky and is a worse passer than Al. Personally, I’m not a fan of that deal unless we get their pick as well.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I am no fan of Martin either, but like I said, I think he is movable. At the very least, we lose very little except salary. So he plays 20 less games and score’s 20 less points in 20 less losses..are we paying for wins or minutes?
The pick seems greedy, especially since Thompson alone could very well be a big upgrade for what this team wants/needs at the center position.
Aren't the two connected?
The Wolves played worse with Jefferson injured, so him missing those games was a big deal. 20 games is the difference between home court in the first two rounds and going on the road in round one. It’s also the difference between a 5-6 seed and not making the playoffs at all.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 4, 2010 4:57 PM CST up reply actions
The difference in postion has to be a factor as well....
Yes they are both volume scorers, but a dominant post scorer like Al is much harder to find than a wing scorer like Martin. Is the difference in those two Jason Thompson? Perhaps, but I am still leery of giving Al up for anything less than a Granger type player (with sweetner from our end of course).
Also, I would wait to make any deal with Al until after the season. I have a feeling that he will hit his stride towards the end of the year now that his knee looks closer to 100%.
The scarcity vs. utility argument is beginning to wear thin as we trudge through our third consecutive laughingstock season.
From where I sit, both Martin and Jefferson have shown the ability to put up ~25pts/night on terrible teams…and not much else.
But Jefferson does it in a more “rare” manner. OK
I just hope there are some GMs out there that think this way too. Paging Kevin McHale…
Greg Oden vs. Kevin Durant? At the time nearly every NBA “expert” or GM would have taken Oden over Durant simply b/c of the rare chance at a cornerstone big man. Kevin Pritchard even ignored his team’s glaring need at wing to add to a position of strength for this very reason. Hasheem Thabeet vs. Tyreke Evans? I don’t think you’ll be hard pressed to find GMs who agree with this.
I think that where we disagree with the trade is that you slightly overvalue Thompson while I slightly undervalue him. He is very young and should improve but I don’t see him as being much more than a hustle type of post player, can make a few great plays but overall doesn’t do anything exceptionally well.
I agree that Martin is movable, but like I said, I would feel better about that deal in the summer when we know where we are drafting. If we end up with the #2 pick then we take Turner and stand pat. If we miss out on Turner/Johnson then we make the trade and take Whiteside/Aldrich/etc.
agreed on Gay...
But it all comes down to cost certainty. We Wolves fans know a thing or two about being financially hamstrung. If we make an offer for Gay in FA that they feel is reasonable and Memphis doesn’t match…great, fantastic even. But trading for him and loosing all cost certainty by not knowing who is going to offer what is even riskier because you have now given up assets to still have the following decision:
If no trade: Make reasonable offer to Gay and if matched, move on and try to acquire more assets or affordable players that are less talented.
If you trade for Gay: Give up some of your assets to be forced with either matching a bad deal or getting nothing.
At some point in the near future the wolves are going to have to spend on some FA wing talent. You can’t get around it. The thing I liked about the “Option B” was that his stance of who was untouchable was pretty realistic. Once you have pieces, it becomes easier to trade Al once more of your long term questions are filled. You don’t reel from critical position hole to critical position hole like a drunken sailor.
Fact is, it takes both smart draft decisions and smart FA moves to make a championship contender. You put the money into the front office first to properly scout players to make informed decisions. There is never a cap when it comes to front office talent. While a good front office doesn’t necessarily make your team great, a bad one will surely screw it up.
by TheEvilProfessor on Feb 4, 2010 8:27 AM CST up reply actions
Should Kahn Stay Patient? Or Should He Be Aggressive?
I am on the mindset of being aggressive, because it is hard to be dependent on a lottery system. The winners of the lottery rarely have the worst record and usually don’t have the top 3 worst records in the league. I think the Wolves should add as many pieces as possible around a player and hope for the best. That way the Wolves still have Love, Rubio, and Jefferson to play around with to get a great wing if any of the other plans fizzle.
Gerald Wallace might be available with the Bobcats for sale. AI2 is available. KMart might be available for the right price. Gay is probably available. All of them have their warts thought. Both Martin and Wallace have injury histories. AI2 can’t shoot. Gay might be a chucker.
I think the best duo out of those 4 players is KMart and AI2, given Kahn could keep Jefferson and Love together. If Kahn had to move Jefferson, I think the best pairing would be KMart and Wallace. KMart shoots a low FG%, but his TS% is out of this world. The guy shoots 3 pointers with the best of them and has gotten to the line 10.3, 9.5, and 7.1 times per game the last 3 season. If KMart could play with Al, this pair would be unbelievable. In a two man game, either Big Al or KMart would be able to score every time. Then Iguodala would be that All World defender Kahn would need on the wing. He is also a great driver and facilitator. The deals I would make for KMart and AI2 are Flynn, Pekovic, and expirings for KMart and expirings and both the CHA and UTA 1sts for AI2 and Dalembert. Then the lineup would look like
Dalembert/Jefferson
Jefferson/Love
AI2/Brewer
KMart/Ellington
Sessions/AI2
Then come draft time, maybe Kahn gets lucky and maybe he doesn’t, but this way there are options and Kahn doesn’t have to focus on getting that stud wing player. Maybe he does anyways. Rubio might be able to net him a Top 5 pick and surely a combination of this year’s 1st and Rubio would. There is a tremendous amount of luck that is in play here. Maybe the Wolves land Turner or Wes Johnson. Or Ryan Hollins continues to show the value of having a very active big man and then Kahn goes with Hassan Whiteside or Ed Davis.
Then next year, the whole time is picking out what players Kahn would want to keep and which ones he would want to move. AI2 and KMart will always hold value and could easily be moved next year if Kahn wanted to.
This
is exactly what I would do. I’d try to get Sacramento to include Sergio Rodriguez in the deal with Martin, since we’ll be cutting out a few roster spots and would need a backup point guard.
Also, Martin’s low FG% is meaningless if he has a high TS%. In general, FG% isn’t a very good stat.
We’d still have a top 5 pick after this. If we do the trade at the deadline, there are only 27 games left to be played. Win half, and we still probably wouldn’t crack 30 wins.
Sergio Rodriquez
seems vastly underrated. Not that he is great or anything, but he should be getting more minutes,
Why's Memphis wanting to deal for Rubio's rights again?
As a trade commodity, presumably.
Mix and match the buyers and sellers, though. Phoenix comes up with…. Philadelphia! Stoudemire for Iguodala. There are a certain number of loose molecules, lookin’ for a reaction, out there.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Waiting for "The One"
I agree with S ‘N P. Championships usually come as a result of a draft pick becoming a leading superstar (or said superstar moving to a different team of HIS choosing). The Celtics championship of two years ago is an anomaly. Whether its Jefferson or Gay or Martin is less important than having a high draft pick that pans out in a big way. I believe that most FA’s will not move. The few that likely do move will be greatly overpaid, including Gay. The Wolves will not feel compelled to overpay for Gay, be it after they might trade for him or over the summer. He’s not coming here. Stoudemire will remain with Phoenix. Boozer, well, who knows? I doubt he will be a major impact if he does move. He will only be an impact player if he goes to a team that already has superstar players, where he can be more of a role player than he is in Utah. Like Gasol, a star player unable to lift his team in Memphis, becoming a second banana (albeit with greater prestige) in Los Angeles.
The Celtics championship is only an anomaly...
Because most teams don’t have the number of assets that they had at one time, which allowed them to make decent offers and still keep some of their good players. They basically had Jefferson, Perkins, Rondo, Gomes, the #5 pick, Delonte West, and the pick they got from the Wolves in the Szczerbiak trade as decent assets, with other young guys to take a flier on like Telfair, Gerald Green, Leon Powe, and Tony Allen and huge contracts like Szczerbiak and Ratliff. Also, obviously, they had Paul Pierce, who’s better than anyone on the current Wolves roster.
How do the Wolves match up? They have Jefferson, Gomes, Rubio’s rights, Flynn, the Charlotte pick, Love, and Pekovic’s rights, which is about the same number of assets, just a bit lower quality. Then Ellington, Hollins, and the future second rounders would be part of that second category. And they have either the expirings or next summer’s cap space. The Wolves don’t have enough assets to pull a one-season turnaround like Boston did, but the Celtics earned that title through their drafting and the trades that were happening before KG and Allen were even available.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Feb 4, 2010 5:16 PM CST up reply actions
How much would be "too much" for Gay in your opinion...
IMO I think a deal starting around $10 Mil and ending around $13-15 Mil would be close, maybe slightly overpaying. Anything more would be out of the question.
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