Consensus Big Board for 2-6-2010
So, for those of you who don't know me from other boards.. my name is Casper and I'm a a huge draft nut.
I regularly update various files on my computer that have breakdowns, rankings, quality opponent production, and mocks for draft prospects. I started following college basketball closely as a hobby in 2005-06 (once it seemed the Wolves were on a downturn), and it's grown into something very similar to an addiction that supplements my love of the NBA - to the point where I find myself discussing the draft far more than the Timberwolves play on the court.
Now that I'm done introducing myself, let's get to the meat of the reason for making my first FanPost - this week's consensus big board.
The reason for listing boards instead of mocks? I far rather look at boards this time of year, because not only do mocks mean far less (more just to see how things could fall), but they tend to exclude guys who may or may not be coming out so you don't get a true sense on what "experts" feel about certain prospects.
Anyway, I think you get the gist of it. I list the players names in order of the consensus ranking, and then after it put the rankings of DX, NBADraft.net, nba-draft.com, ESPN, and my own followed by a link to their ESPN player profile or the DX profile if they are an international player.
So here's the updated average rankings of players on their big boards (DX, NBADraft.net, nba-draft.com, Chad Ford, and yours truly - respectively):
1. John Wall - Fr. PG (1,1,1,1,1):
ESPN Profile
2. Evan Turner - Jr. SG/SF (2,4,3,3,2):
ESPN Profile
3. Derrick Favors - Fr. PF (3,6,2,2,4):
ESPN Profile
4. Wesley Johnson - Jr. SG/SF (7,3,5,4,5):
ESPN Profile
5. Ed Davis - So. PF (4,10,4,5,7):
ESPN Profile
6. Al-Farouq Aminu - So. F (5,7,7,7,10):
ESPN Profile
7. Cole Aldrich - Jr. C (6,15,6,6,6):
ESPN Profile
8. DeMarcus Cousins - Fr. PF/C (8,14,8,8,3):
ESPN Profile
9. Donatas Motiejunas - 19yrs PF/C (12,5,12,10,NR):
DX Profile
10. Hassan Whiteside - Fr. PF/C (10,2,21,12,8):
ESPN Profile
11. Patrick Patterson - Jr. PF (9,9,10,9,19):
ESPN Profile
12. Xavier Henry - Fr. SG (15,8,9,14,15):
ESPN Profile
13. Willie Warren - So. G (11,23,11,13,16):
ESPN Profile
14. Stanley Robinson - Sr. F (13,16,15,11,24):
ESPN Profile
15. Greg Monroe - So. PF/C (17,13,22,19,14):
ESPN Profile
16. Larry Sanders - Jr. PF/C (19,12,19,17,18):
ESPN Profile
17. Devin Ebanks - So. F (24,18,16,23,9):
ESPN Profile
18. Elias Harris - Fr. SF (16,32,18,18,11):
ESPN Profile
19. Ekpe Udoh - Jr. PF/C (14,42,13,16,12):
ESPN Profile
20. Avery Bradley - Fr. G (30,11,17,29,13):
ESPN Profile
21. Solomon Alabi - So. C (18,35,14,15,22):
ESPN Profile
22. Jan Vesely - 19yrs F (22,20,33,30,NR):
DX Profile
23. Paul George - So. SG/SF (25,27,34,32,17):
ESPN Profile
24. Eric Bledsoe - Fr. G (40,26,20,20,39):
ESPN Profile
25. James Anderson - Sr. SG/SF (36,31,35,26,25):
ESPN Profile
That does it for this one. Hope you enjoy it and if you have comments, criticism, questions, want my reasoning behind listing a certain player where ("You have Patterson at 19 while the "experts" have him as top-10? Moron!")... feel free to post anything - I have thick skin and can take the bad with the good.
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I'm sure you know about it..
…but my most recent addiction has been The Hoop Doctors. I like how they update tons of different mocks/rankings and list them by date. Cheers, and nice work.
Couple questions/thoughts (great work, by the way):
1. Why do you list Motiejunas as “NR”? Is he that bad, do you think he’s not coming, or do you not rank internationals?
2. You list Paul George as your 17th overall talent. What are your thoughts on him? I think he could be had with our Utah pick (unless he impresses in draft workouts) but I know that the big concerns with him right now are ball-handling and size (he weighs like, 180) but he can shoot the lights out and is 6’7" which is why I hope we can nab him.
3. Where do you have Elliot Williams rated? He’s having a great year for Memphis (weak conference, I know) and appears to be a legit SG prospect in the mold of a poor-man’s D. Wade (a very poor man, mind you).
4. I think you have Ebanks rated a little high at #9. What do you see? He’s a good overall talent, but he struggles to shoot outside and seems to lack consistency.
5. Agree with Avery Bradley being the 13th best player in this draft. He’s a little undersized for the Wolves (alongside Flynn, at least—but not alongside Rubio) but he’s a heckuva defender (something we need) and can shoot extremely well (also what we need). He doesn’t get many stats but he’s on a very talented team and he plays within the system (much like he would in the NBA). I know we need that “athletic big” and most expect us to get one with that Charlotte pick, but man, if we could snag Bradley with that pick we might have our better-defending-but-less-scoring-version-of-Eric-Gorden-esque SG of the future (backed up by Ellington). It would just be a very short back court until Rubio arrived. And we could still grab a big with that Utah pick (Varnado, Jordan, etc.) Your thoughts?
Thanks
1. I should have explained that in the post. NR = not ranked. I don’t like “guessing” on rankings, so if I haven’t seen them play a live game, then I don’t feel comfortable ranking them. Even guys I have seen played like Hayward or Booker aren’t ranked because I didn’t watch a game keying in on how he was playing – so it’d be more of an afterthought.
2. My thoughts are I wish he played better talent and that he were healthy at this moment.
I agree that at this point he likely could be had with the Utah pick if he comes out (which is likely not going to be the case). Athletically, I think he’s up there with Wes Johnson. I think he plays a similar brand of gambling defense as well, though he’s not quite as jumpy and is more likely to be on the perimeter instead of playing pseudo-PF like Johnson does. He’s definitely a gambler however – not anything close to having lockdown qualities.
Offensively, he’s got a great stroke, but as David Thorpe wrote a couple weeks back, he really needs to take advantage of his athleticism advantage on the offensive end by driving the lane more instead of settling for jumpshots. He also is a good playmaker at the wing and can make great, tight passes to the interior or handle the ball at times for Fresno St.; however, he can be overaggressive at times and throw it away.
He’s got tools to be a great wing prospect. His athleticism and physical profile are what people look for out of wings – though maybe slightly on the skinny side. He’s a case where my eyes could easily be leading me to believe something that isn’t there, however, since the talent he’s been facing isn’t nearly as good as the guys coming from big conferences. The upside is why I have him higher than guys like James, Robinson, and Anderson.
3. I have Elliot Williams rated right by Jeff Taylor and Quincy Pondexter in the late 20s. One of the main reasons for this is that I’ve seen him play only twice this year at Memphis, and while he certainly looked the role of a scorer and athlete, I wasn’t taken aback by his defensive tools or his ability to translate his driving ability against the bigger, stronger guards. His game against Marshall, however, was impressive. If he were 6’6 or so instead of 6’3 (skeptical of his listed 6’4), would be a different story. If other people have comments on Williams, feel free, since I’m by no means very familiar with him as I’m in Minnesota and the Calipari-less Memphis Tigers aren’t a hot draw.
4. Almost everyone agrees with you on my Ebanks ratings who see my boards. I see him being a great defensive talent who has offensive tools at his disposal, it’s just that his shot is not falling – whether because of poor luck, poor vision, or just being a tease with a seemingly good shooting stroke (most likely the latter). I will not hide that I’m a fan of his after the way he played in the tournaments last year.
Defensive ability to guard three positions well, on top of being a stellar rebounder for a SF (second to James out of the guys I track), and great passer… leads me to probably overrate him based on the upside I see if he can get that jumper to fall. His jumper not connecting and his potential attitude problems are definitely big detractors at this point – it’s more just that I’m not ready to drop him… not yet.
5. Yeah, I like Bradley and i really hope he can eventually learn to play the point part-time (whether in college next year or coming off the bench in the NBA). For the Wolves, I probably would take a few of the guys I listed after him before I’d take Bradley, but I really like his potential as a scorer that can really lock down PGs and smaller SGs. If the Timberwolves take him as BPA, I would expect groaning from the fanbase, but I would be happy and extremely patient because he’s an elite talent in a body that’s about 2" small.
Ebanks
I agree you have him ranked too high. From the limited amount ive seen him play (only 2 or 3 games) i wouldnt draft him until late in the first round. He cant really shoot and more importantly it seems like he not only didnt improve from last year but hes also gotten slightly worse. I would probably be ok with him not improving but the problem with him being worse makes me think hes either not that good, hes lazy and doesnt work hard to improve his game or maybe both.
Yeah, yeah :P
If you look at his shooting stroke, it looks great, it just isn’t going in. I’m a believer that it’s going to start falling in at higher %s. Even though I’m not a mastermind like David Thorpe and cannot critique a players mechanics as he or other coaches/trainers could, my eyes lead me to believe this because I can see pretty much nothing wrong besides the result. So I completely understand if some would disagree, and it’s warranted (though late 1st is unkind).
I certainly don’t think he’s gotten worse, just had regression in his shooting %s. Every other facet of his game has improved in my opinion. Rebounding has picked up in conference play. Passing is becoming much more reliable and he’s almost the primary playmaker for WVU once they reach the half court set. Defense is more pronounced this year than last year, because he seems more comfortable making switches onto guards when on the perimeter and his lateral foot speed seems to have improved.
Still has his weaknesses, like the aforementioned jumper and his subpar handle; but, personally, I would rather take him than all of the SFs in this draft not named Wesley Johnson.
I wonder if that is good or bad
about his shooting stroke looking pure and just not falling. Because at some point you have to start wondering what the problem is. Is it something that a coaching staff can work on? Vision problems/bad depth perception? Not enough practice/repititions? It’s one thing to have a good stroke and shoot “only” 35%, but at some point you just have to stop blaming luck.
I’d be interested to hear your thoughts on how he fits into our team though? Same fit as Turner (defense, slasher, no shot) or all potential and you just think he will capitalize on it? Any deeper thoughts?
Not a clue...
…and yeah, I’m wondering when the breaking point will be when I stop chalking it up to chance that he’s missing and start thinking it’s a real problem – whether confidence or whatever. Happened with me and Henry over the past few weeks when I saw him airball multiple shots and saw him look unnatural – even if other facets of his game were solid.
Ebanks’ fit here? I think it’d be great, but he would need that shot to start falling otherwise we’re talking about another headache like Brewer before January 2010. Defensively he’d be a great help as he would drastically improve our team defense with the ability to switch and pester players all around the perimeter and even some of the guys in the post. Team length and athleticism would improve, and he’s a great finisher on the break.
Really would love seeing guys like Love, Turner, and Ebanks on the same team who are all great playmakers or passers for their positions. Some combination of Ebanks, Brewer, and Turner on the perimeter would be extremely fun to watch defensively as well.
Have to head out to a Super Bowl party, but I’ll write a breakdown of the next WVU game I catch on the KFAN board and hopefully it will be a game where Ebanks shows off a variety of his strengths and weaknesses so I can key up on them and explain the sequences.
One more quick question
With a lineup of Brewer/Ebanks/Turner do you see them as a Prince/Hamilton kind of combo/trio? Not great shooters, but still able to hit an occasional open shot so defenses have to pay attention to them while excelling on defense and at moving without the ball and understanding the team concept?
Eventually you have to go with the result
having a great looking shot is only as important as the result. If everything is as perfect as you say i agree with mplax there might be bigger problems.
also on a side note have you ever seen texas state?
I'm confused
you do or don’t think that that particular lineup would be comparable to Detroit’s Tayshaun Prince and Rip Hamilton combo?
I don’t want much college ball except for here and there to see guys high up on my list. So no Texas State for me. Why?
Oops
Sorry for the confusion i ment to reply to casper and i was agreeing with you about ebanks shooting problems, if his form is perfect and he still cant hit shots then there might be something else wrong thats a more serious problem.
Initially I guess
I think Turner is a good enough player that he will eventually add a reliable 3pt shot to his game, and Brewer has certainly flourished lately so hopefully he can keep that up. Ebanks… I’m optimistic but certainly he’s the least capable out of that group. I think a wing group like the trio I listed would have similarities to the Pistons one, but has far more upside.
Can’t wait for the Villanova/WV game tonight.
Awesome
thanks for the insight. I’d love to hear your thoughts about tonights game.
In case people don't read Rube Chat - thoughts on Ebanks tonight:
I post a lot of stuff in the 2010 NBA Draft thread over there, here’s the copy/paste of what I wrote on Ebanks’ game tonight:
Staring off with Ebanks. Most impressive was his defense on yet another likely All-American guard (first one I saw was against Turner). Reynolds had 8 points against Ebanks tonight on 2-6 shooting (~25mins), 13 points on 3-4 shooting against the rest of WVU. Ebanks showed how he is, arguably, the best wing/perimeter defender in the draft because of his good athleticism/length, great fundamentals and tenacity. He’s an excellent talent on that end of the floor, especially when coupled with his rebounding which is exceptional for a Forward – though tonight he was stuck on the perimeter more so he wasn’t in position for defensive boards.
Offensively, he got most of his points in near the hoop, connecting only on one of his three long jumpers in the game (not bad shots or bad misses). He had an ugly 6ft floater mixed in as well which was rushed and was an awful shot. FT shooting was unusually bad, and he short-ironed one of them. As far as playmaking, he didn’t do anything of note this game, but did rotate the ball well and besides the floater off his offensive rebound, didn’t take a bad shot.
He was the best player on the floor for WVU tonight, and this was his 3rd good game in a row. Huggins likely told him to cut down the rushed long jumpers seeing that in recent games he hasn’t taken as many, which will see his %s go up in the coming weeks. Needs to have a dominant game for most people to put him back into lottery discussion, however… but with Butler on the team and him having the alpha dog mentality, Ebanks may not have the opportunity. I obviously love his role player potential.
And then something ESPN had up during the halftime of the KU vs Texas game to show the impact Ebanks had defensively:
ESPN just posted this to back me up on Ebanks defense and the disparity between him and the rest of his team on Reynolds:
With Ebanks guarding Reynolds:
37 possessions, 4 points, 1-5 FG, 4 TOs
Rest of WVU guarding Reynolds:
28 possessions, 17 points, 4-5 FG, 0 TOs
I guess I could have been slighting Ebanks more than I should have when it came to his defensive stats on Reynolds, but either way he is arguably the best defensive wing in the draft… and in my mind, he is (obviously since I have him 9th on my board even when he’s shooting poorly from outside the paint).
Intriguing
makes me wonder how pairing him with Wes Johnson would work at the 2-3… Wes is the 3, but with shooting tendencies, and Ebanks is the oversized 2? Think he could play the 2 (Kahn likes to say 2 wings, not as SG or SF, keep in mind) with a good shooting 3? Obviously I woudl still prefer Turner if we get lucky in the lottery, but if we end up around 5 and Wes is there, would you take him or a guy like Cousins/Favors/otherbig? In other words, could Ebanks play the 2? Sorry, that was a really long and random way of asking an easy question.
Thanks for the thoughts again.
Not going to play the 2
He can switch onto them on the perimeter and still do his thing, but he’s at his best guarding 3’s – even if he has shut down two of the better 2’s in college. However like you said, if Kahn and Rambis just want two wings then the label wouldn’t matter. I think Ebanks would be in over his head versus guys like Kobe, Wade, Ellis or the other elite athletes who are at SG who work off the bounce – but he could guard others who tend to stay on the perimeter. Johnson seems like he could play and stay with SGs in the NBA, even though I’m not as high on his defense as others, so the pairing would work… if Johnson isn’t shy to take over games offensively in the NBA.
At this point, I’d probably take Cousins and look to trade him (or another Timberwolves big) for value. If Johnson is taken, however, I wouldn’t cry out in anger since he’s a decent pick.
I’m also not advocating trading up for Ebanks as a target, I’d much rather go for a high upside pick like Whiteside who could potentially be a perfect compliment to Love and Al, even if he’s very raw.
I think the consensus from fanbases/analysts everywhere...
…is that it’s completely up in the air. He’s so raw on the inside but has such great tools to fit with almost all the teams in the lotto, that he could go early or relatively late.
There are arguments on both sides if he comes out this year or not as well. The side that says he will or should cite his age and that teams love athletic bigs with upside. Those that say he shouldn’t cite how well raw bigs normally do in the NBA as well as him needing to gain interior skills and add muscle – things best done in college.
I’m sure there is a large disparity on opinions on this relatively unknown prospect (he’s rarely available to view) on this board – just as there is on every board that I visit. I wanted to drop him down on my rankings, but instead of finding guys who were worthy of moving up, I didn’t really see anyone screaming to be ahead of him – so he stayed the same even after the Tulsa game.
It's about what part of him scouts are looking at
Half are going “this kid is tall, athletic, can protect the paint and has a lot of potential”
The other half are going “he’s playing at a no-name school against no-name competition and his stats even then aren’t very good compared to similar players at better schools”
If Thabeet and Jason Thompson prove anything, it’s that he’s more likely to be a high pick than not. But I don’t know what to make of him really and honestly, I’m not real confident in him panning out as a pro.
I think for Whiteside it will all depend on workouts.
If he works out well for a particular team, he could go in the top five, just because he’s got such great size and plays defense. If he works out poorly, he’ll probably go top 20 just based on pure potential (a la BJ Mullins). I think a lot of scouts are low on him now because he plays in a very weak conference that allows him to dominate. NBA would be a HUGE step up, in terms of competition. (vs. Udoh, Aldrich, and Cousins who face a fare share of talent in the coferences they play in.)
What are the thoughts on taking Willie Warren with our second first rounder?
Assuming that bigs like Monroe and Whiteside are off the board. Is he redundant on our squad? Seems like he’s a straight up scorer, and I think we could use one or two of those on this team, at least on the perimeter. Thoughts?
"Come on Eddie, let's get serious."
I like Warren..
…a lot and I think he’s going to be a very good pro. Then again, the Wolves have a terrible history of picking small shooting guards and I don’t know if I could get over the Foye/Shaddy aversion to actually wanting them to pull the trigger on that pick.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Warren's questionable attitude scares me.
Plus I just think that Flynn could be our undersized but athleic, pure scorer. I mean, it just seems like at some point you can have too many of those guys on the team. It almost seems like pairing Nate Robinson with Ben Gordon: it’s not that any team in the NBA wouldn’t love to have both, but if we can get someone who fits a little more to our needs who is comparable talent—then you have to go the needs route. I would certainly never advocate against taking the BPA. You ALWAYS take the BPA, always. Trade them down the road if no need, but always take the BPA00even if that means taking two PGs in a row or a PF when you already have one.
Wow, though, after seeing Udoh’s stats, I he seems perfect for our team. The only real concern is that he performed poorly against the only real NBA-calibur competition to date (Aldrich, who Udoh had an unimpressive 10p 4r 3a 4to 1blk outing against).
by SF on Feb 6, 2010 1:34 PM CST up reply actions
He's just too small
Attitude aside, S-n-P nailed the main issue….he’s not really a point guard and too short to be a great shooting guard. If you’re 6’3"-6’4" and want to really make a name for yourself as a 2 guard in the NBA, you better be able to jump through the roof like Dwyane Wade. Warren just doesn’t grade out well as a pro….the Randy Foye comparison is pretty much dead on in all aspects.
Plus he's not even playing that well
43% from the field and 28% from 3. And a 1.0 assist/TO ratio. I am anti-tweener unless the dude is just killing it at the NCAA level, which he is not.
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 6, 2010 1:54 PM CST up reply actions
The Foye/McCants Averson
I wonder if those guys scared us off of Stephen Curry. I think he may be the prototype for a “tweener dude just killing it at the NCAA level.”
The thing about Foye though...
….is he wasn’t any better in college than he is now. In his four years at Nova he shot under 40% twice, and his best year was just 42%, and he never averaged more than 4 assists.
I was always surprised to hear fans and analysts talk about him like he was a great shooter…he’s never had a history of being a great shooter (or being a point guard for that matter) And then everyone was so shocked when he would shoot like 40% and completely fail to facilitate the offense. Why? He’s always been a low percentage volume scorer all the way back to his first year in college.
Agree
It’s absolutely perplexing how McHale overlooked four years of college data and somehow thought he would become a more efficient/better player in the NBA. The more you look back on that pick, the more boneheaded it gets.
by Rascal Flatts on Feb 6, 2010 5:42 PM CST up reply actions
Warren is an enigma to me
I really liked him coming into this year, not for the Timberwolves, but for another team needing an elite (or so I thought) scorer but didn’t need him to be a great defender. When I saw him play this year before the ankle injury, I still saw the tenacity and ability to drive to the rim and draw fouls at a high rate. I still saw the elite handle for a college player, and above average playmaking from the SG spot. He still has the good/great (not elite) athleticism as well.
The jumper just isn’t there so far this year, even though it looks fine and it was a strength of his last year and reportedly was one of the best in summer camps. Maybe he’s tired from trying to carry his team that isn’t exactly full of talent. I mean, he certainly isn’t expending the energy on the defensive end. It’s not like he’s an awful defender, but it’s certainly not a strength and so the effort on that end shouldn’t be sapping him. Hopefully as he returns from the ankle injury he’ll round back into form and the jumper will fall.
But until that happens, I’m only a fan of the tools I see this year and the memory of the shot last year, which makes him a relatively middling draft prospect in my book because of the lack of defense.
The reason he slips while Ebanks stays relatively high while both are suffering from the same problem in my eyes, is mainly because I don’t know if Warren was created by Griffin and I think Ebanks brings more value to a team (drama included, unfortunately).
Flip Ed Davis and Cole Aldrich...
and that’s probably my Top 7. After that, the only thing I know I’d change is Willie Warren and Patrick Patterson over Greg Monroe.


















