Rookie Comparison

Jennings, Flynn, Curry? or is Lawson in there?

Which I should note do get a significant bump considering he was playing against backups. I just don’t know how to easily correct for that.

D
October 7.00
November 2.19
December 2.54
January 3.27
February 1.77
Total 2.55
Last 2 full months 2.82

Player A – Curry
Player B – Flynn
Player C – Jennings

Perhaps this is an overly simplistic approach, but I really wanted to find out whether Curry’s assist opportunities really are limited by the guys he’s playing with, or if Flynn is actually benefiting from his cast in comparison to Curry. Short answer – at worst it’s a wash. Flynn plays with guys more likely to give him assists in the boxscore, but Curry plays with guys who give him far more opportunities (by sheer volume of FGAs) to get an assist. Because I didn’t want to spend all day doing this, I simplified it to comparing the top two shooters on each team to illustrate the point.

OK, some base facts for each team. The top three shooters (by FGA) for the Wolves are Al, Jonny, and Corey. For Golden State it’s Monta, Maggette, and Curry.

For the purposes of this comparison I’m removing Flynn and Curry from the equation, so I’m comparing numbers between Al + Corey and Monta + Maggette.

Also, for the record, 54% of all Wolves FGA’s come from someone OTHER than our top three jackers, whereas for Golden State only 47% of the Warrior’s FGA’s came from outside of their top three shooters.

Lastly, the top two shooters as I’m defining them account for:
31% of total team FGAs (Al + Corey)
39% of total team FGAs (Monta + Maggette)

OK, so is Curry really penalized because Monta and Maggette are so amazingly good at being assist proof? Well, yes and no (if I’m interpreting the numbers correctly). It is true that Monta and Maggette have a lower assisted rate than Al and Corey do, but the if you compare the overall numbers it’s actually pretty close. Here’s what I mean:

For the vast majority of their shot attempts (according to 82games, and I just used jump and close attempts as they were the biggest share of the shot attempts pie), if you total the number of FGAs that were assisted on and add them up (again, this is a pretty rough calc), Monta and Maggette had 656 FGAs that were assisted on (40% of their collective FGAs). Al and Corey have 691 FGAs that were assisted on (50% of their collective FGAs). That’s not that big of a difference. So despite the significantly lower assisted shot rate for Monta and Maggette, Monta’s amazing FGA volume makes for dramatically more opportunities to gather assists. Al and Corey have 35.5 more assisted FGs combined than Monta and Maggette, but on 273 fewer combined attempts!

So considering that Flynn plays a lot of minutes with Al and Corey, and Curry plays a lot of minutes with Monta and Maggette, I’m not sure what to make of it, other than I’m not so sure that I buy into the argument Curry’s assist numbers are lower because of an inferior cast. First, how much does Curry really play with scrubs? I mean really, how many minutes is he playing without Monta or Maggette on the floor? Is it enough to be statistically relevant? Granted, my calc is pretty rough too, but I do think my rough calc illustrates that Curry has the same- if not more – opportunities (in terms of FGAs attempted by the guys he’s playing with) to pick up an assist as Flynn does, independent of whether he’s playing with scrubs.

So does this really boil down to Al and Corey being more likely to turn a pass into a score (and therefore an assist) than Monta and Maggette? Maybe – the numbers could certainly back up that claim. I guess for me it keeps coming back to two things:
 1) System. Flynn plays in a system that tends to minimize an individual’s ability to gather high assist totals whereas Curry plays in a system that is more conducive for one or two individuals being high assist guys. Over that last ten years Don Nelson’s teams have averaged 1807 assists per year, fewer than Phil Jackson’s teams (relax, I’m just comparing systems), which have averaged 1893 assists per year. However, in those ten years Phil Jackson has had one player average over 6 assists per game once, whereas between Golden State and Dallas Don Nelson has had seven guys average over 6 assists per game over the last ten years. For the record, Monta is averaging 5.4 assists this year to Curry’s 4.7.

 2) Despite Monta’s and Maggette’s reticence to turn a received pass into an assist for their PG (or whoever passed it), their sheer volume of shots presents more opportunities for Curry to garner an assist.

I don’t think any of these numbers tell us if Curry or Flynn are underperforming in their respective systems. Flynn’s numbers do compare quite favorably to PG production in the triangle. Since Jackson has been in LA, only two guards have averaged 4.4 or more assists/game, and they Kobe and Gary Payton. If we include Jackson’s time in Chicago the only other guard to average more than 4.4 asts/game is Jordan. That suggests to me that Flynn is doing just fine dishing within the triangle from the guard position. Curry’s numbers puts him in good company as well, but notably much more PG heavy, with Monta and Baron, as well as Nash, Finley, and Jason Terry as guards who’ve averaged over 4.7 assists/game for Don Nelson’s teams. Curry is flat out the more efficient scorer, boasting a higher efg% and better three point range. However, if you go by the numbers, Flynn is at worst equal to and arguably better at passing than Curry is at this point (+3.6% better assist percentage than Curry, +.4 assists/36, .2% better in TO percentage [meaning he actually turns the ball over at a lower rate than Curry but sees more touches per game, hence a higher TO/game number]. In fact, Flynn would be a lot more productive/efficient player if he simply attempted fewer shots and turned the ball over less, most likely improving his shooting percentages and bringing his numbers in line with Lawson.

I guess, at the end of all this rambling mess of a comment, having looked at a ton of numbers and compared the advanced numbers between Flynn, Curry, Jennings, and Lawson, I am left with the sense that each of these point guards is finding their way in four very, very different situations. That all of them are performing quite well is a testament to the the strength of their PG class and draft position should have nothing to do with this conversation. More to the point, for me now, is simply recognizing that all four are actually doing quite well all things considered, and many have good prospects coming up, as well as questions:
Flynn – producing very well for a PG in the triangle, at least in terms of assists. Can he learn to defend and be more selective with his shot?
Curry – great, efficient shooter and good passer in a pass friendly-ish system. Can he overcome his selfish teammates and his own lack of athleticism?
Lawson – producing very well on a loaded team behind a great mentor PG. Can he still produce in starter’s minutes and when he’s the PG/#2 option being game planned around?
Jennings – great assist rates, low TOs, already a leader on his team. Can he learn to be more selective with his shot as well, and will he hold up physically over the years playing such high minutes?