It seems like there's a lot of statistically orientated people on this site. Just wondering about something related to the Wolves inability to move up even 1 spot in the lottery despite numerous chances. I've always been curious about the probability of having repeated high lotto seedings without capitalizing. What's the correct way to compute this?
Would it be correct to muliply the probabilities that we didn't move up each year? For instance, we had .924, .916 and .905 probabilities of not picking 1st, 2nd or 3rd last year. Or multiplying together, a 76.6% chance of not moving into the top 3. Is this correct? If so, I went back to thru the infamous 1992 (Shaq) draft and multiplied all the chances we had to move up (or not move up for computation). A couple years we actually maintained our top 3 status so I just multiplied the 2 opportunities for us to not move up those years. I rounded off and found...
The Wolves had a 3% chance of not moving into or higher within the top 3 once in all our lotto chances since 1992. There was a 97% chance of us moving up at least once during all of those lotto forays, but we haven't done it.
I'm no stats guy though so maybe someone can correct my error.