Defensive player of the year
by Mplax on Mar 1, 2010 3:59 PM CST
17 comments
I've been absolutely amazed this year by Arron Afflalo's defense. Specifically against Kobe Bryant. So far this year Arron has won 2 of the 3 contests. And I'm talking about quite a wide margin IMO. And 2/3 (the third wasn't terrible, and the replay made it look like most of Kobe's points came off of transition or against JR) is about the best I can think of anybody doing. Unless I am missing someone.
Below are their season splits (not going to popcorn machine all of the games to see, but Afflalo definitely played most if not all of his minutes on Kobe).
Game 1: Den Win on 11/13
Afflalo: +15, 3/4 (1/1 from range, 1/3fts), 3rbs, 1ast, 1st, 1to
Bryant: -14, 7/17 (1/3, 4/4), 19pts, 3rb, 2ast, 1st, 4to
Game 2: Den Win on 2/5
Afflalo: +5, 4/7 (2/3, 1/2), 11pts, 1rb, 2ast, 2st, 1to
Bryant: +4, 11/22 (4/8, 7/8), 33pts, 9rb, 0ast, 1st, 5to
Game 3: LA Win on 2/28 (disclaimer, JR Smith's +/- for this game was -11)
Afflalo: +1, 5/12 (3/7, 3/3), 16pts, 2rb, 1ast, 2tos, 1bl
Bryant: +11, 3/17!!!! (0/2, 8/8), 14pts, 5rbs, 12ast (impressive), 3st, 5to, 2bl
The interesting thing about this is that Afflalo's defensive metrics really aren't that great. But he really seems to rise to the occassion when defending Kobe. I don't know if he just hates Kobe or what, but he seems to have his number. The game that I actually watched earlier this year is what made me start to really like Afflalo. He really kept Kobe from doing just about everything. It was absolutely fun to watch. But like I said, he doesn't seem to do that well any other time. Maybe I am wrong because I don't get to watch that many games, but I always saw him as a defensive minded player and what he did to Kobe reinforced that. But his efficiency numbers were pretty impressive (.570TS%) while his defensive stats (tough to measure) really weren't. Anyone with a better idea have an explanation?
Anyways moral of this post, I just really like seeing what he did to Kobe and wouldn't mind picking him up when his contract ends (not for a little bit yet, this is his third year of a rookie contract) or for a salary cap trade with Denver next year or this summer if they want to see more of JR. Ideas?
If I've interested you, their next game is on April 8th, keep that in mind!
UPDATE:
Arron Afflalo blocks Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol on the same play (via DenverNuggetsVideos)
No idea how I missed this video the first time around. Pure gold.
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I forget where I heard this...
But someone suggested that ultimately defensive stats would have to be measured as one individual against another to have any meaning. Sure some players are actually gifted defenders, but the team influence and the peculiarities of individual match ups (Kobe/Affalo seems like a good example) tend to transcend broader defensive measures. It would be cool to have something akin to baseball stats where we know a guy went 3-15 with 1 HR and 4 K’s against a certain pitcher. I’m guessing you can get better sample sizes with each possession in one game versus the few AB’s in baseball.
Yeah it's certainly not easy to measure
I ignore opponent PER almost completely because of how unreliable it is. I don’t know how most of the other defensive metrics are calculated so I can’t really question them or put full faith in them. But I do know that this is an impressive showing against Kobe. And it was really fun to watch in November. Most interested I have ever been in defense. Afflalo really did a spectacular job covering him without fouling. Truly tremendous.
Denver-LA...
should be a great playoff series. It was very competitive last year, and Denver may have won if not for throwing away crucial inbounds passes, and Kobe hitting some ridiculous threes in crunchtime.
Denver seems a little better than last year, and LA seems about the same, even if their ceiling is a bit higher due to Bynum at full strength and Artest seemingly being better than Ariza.
The teams hate each other, and it’ll be fun to watch. Good points on Afflalo — seems like one of the best off-season pickups.
Agreed
I really hope it comes down to them and Denver takes it.
I agree Denver has somehow gotten better (Carmelo seems even more versatile) despite their aging core (Chauncey and KMart mainly). I also think the Lakers have gotten better despite Kobe. I still think Odom/Gasol is more effective as a tandem than Kobe and anyone else on the team. Fisher is getting old and it seems as if their depth is disappearing. Should be very interesting to see if their 5 allstars (or verge allstars) can take them to another title.
Kobe started the year...
playing as well as at any point in his career. Whether it’s the injuries we keep reading about, or just aging, he hasn’t maintained it. Before he finally sat out a few games, he was actually hurting the team by playing. He probably should have sat out longer, if he’s hurt and that’s what’s holding him back.
My opinion on Kobe
and I realize I will sound moderately insane in my opinions.
But while I realize that he is a truly sensational player, I think he is vastly overrated. In absolutely no way has his game ever been as good as Lebron’s is right now or even as good as Lebron’s was last year. How Kobe is even in the MVP discussion is beyond me (and I don’t mean the fact that he is in the top 10 is wrong, he should definitely be towards the top, but there is absolutely no doubt in my mind that Lebron is head and shoulders above Kobe at this point). He had a string of about 5ish really bad to mediocre games (regular volume shooting, but without making even 45%) while Pau was out and they lost 3 of them I think. I read the Race to the MVP for that week and the author’s reasoning for keeping him in second place was that he had a feeling that Kobe was about to have a good game. That same week, he also took Dwight Howard down 3 spots because the magic had also lost 3/5.
If that’s not a clear sign that the man is overrated, I don’t know what is. Not to mention he has by far the best surrounding cast in the league. Lebron is winning as many games now (with a worse team) and shooting better percentages everywhere except the line. Those were the only knocks on Lebron in the Lebron v Kobe debate 2 years ago and now they are gone.
And now for my most easily refutable point: Pau Gasol helps that team win more than Kobe does. He doesn’t mean as much to the team, but I honestly think he helps that team win more. The only reason he means less is because of how Kobe is treated by refs, the coaches, the fans, and the media.
Sorry for my Kobe rant… it’s always waiting to boil over the top and any mention of Kobe has a high likelihood of causing that to happen. I know none of this really applied to anything you said, so don’t take it as I am arguing against you… I’m just hating on Kobe.
People are idiots
That’s the only possible explanation.
I hate that the default “Who’s the best?” argument is LeBron and Kobe. Even now that no one can possibly argue that Kobe is better, Kobe is the default #2. It’s ridiculous how no sportswriters have the balls to come out and admit that Wade, Howard, Durant, and Paul (pre-injury) all do more to help their teams win. Kobe ought to be somewhere down on the Melo/Dirk scale, as a guy who can create his own offense any time (which in truth is a hugely valuable skill), but can’t do it with elite efficiency (and he’s considerably lower than Melo or Dirk) and doesn’t have any other truly elite skills (Paul’s passing, Howard’s defense) to make up the difference.
You can’t even really use the “best player on the best team” argument. The Lakers aren’t currently the best team, and they’re arguably underachieving. Kobe has basically the best possible teammates to build an offense around. Two good three point shooters to space the floor, and 3 all-star caliber big men, with Kobe as the lynchpin. And yet they’re only 10th in offensive efficiency? That’s inexcusable for a player supposedly of Kobe’s caliber playing in a system supposedly as good as Phil Jackson’s with such a great supporting cast. A big part of the issue is Kobe’s new post game screwing up the spacing and ruining things for everyone else. Some superstar indeed!
My other favorite thing about Kobe:
How many other superstars can be turned into a weapon against their own team? A smart, skilled defender can goad Kobe into taking bunches of bad jumpers that his ego makes him think he can make, causing all of LA’s offense to stagnate, and turning Kobe into an inefficient chucker. Name any other top 30 player you can do this to.
Yeah
I’m convinced that if he came into the league today exactly as skilled and whatnot, he would be considered a verge allstar. He wouldn’t have the superstar status that allows him to get away with so much. I can abslutely guarantee that his free throws would go down and his fouls would go up. This would lead to more turnovers, fewer blocks, fewer steals, and even less efficiency. His reputation as a good defender would be gone. He is still an ok defender, but if he doesn’t get away with the same crap he does now there is no way people still consider him one of the best (and if his name wasn’t Kobe, which is going back to my original point).
If, like I am saying, he were new to the league and just a random name, the refs don’t give him the benefit of the doubt like they do, he gets called for a ton more technicals (mentioned over at Denver Stiffs link that he should have had 5 in the game if they followed the precedent they set when they called the first… not to mention the precedent that is set for everyone not named Kobe or Lebron), and the fans start saying how this Kobe Bryant guy is a great second or third option on the Lakers behind Pau Gasol and Odom (I don’t know the extent to which the refs not being on his side might hurt his game, but I can only imagine it’s a significant amount).
And you could probably get Paul Pierce to do it, but he’s the best shooter in the world so that’s probably a bad idea… Other top 30 players… Rashad McCants!
Melo falls into that trap from time to time
With his name included in the MVP race early in the season, especially.
Mplax, great post. As a Nuggets fan, I’ve been pleasantly surprised by the ugrade to Afflalo to replace the departed Dahntay Jones (aka the Kobe tripper). Afflalo’s got a great work ethic on the floor, all business.
by Artimus Mangilord on Mar 5, 2010 2:10 PM CST up reply actions
Thanks much
And I am really hoping the Timberwolves pick up Malcolm Lee sometime in the second round this draft. If he comes out, I think he has all the potential to become an even better defender than Afflalo. Both from UCLA as well.
I don't think it would end any differently
George Karl is famous for being very lax when it comes to things like inbounds plays. They play tough and aren’t afraid of the Lakers, but they could outplay them in 5 games and still lose the series because of a dumb foul or a botched inbounds or missed free throws.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Mar 2, 2010 11:28 PM CST up reply actions
Fun post here from the DenverStiffs site
http://www.denverstiffs.com/2010/3/1/1331847/kobe-stiffs-experiment
Just thought I would reshare it as it’s quite related.
The popcorn machine said Kobe was 0-5 for the first quarter
So I imagine a lot of that was from Stevenson since he also played the whole first quarter. Second quarter Stevenson only played 2 minutes though and not against Kobe.
Nice post.
AAA is a high-effort, defense-first guy, but also a good scorer when he wants to be. He’s been deadly from beyond the line this year (3rd in the league).
I doubt the Nuggets would let you pry him out of their hands just like that, but if you could, he’d be an excellent player to have on your squad.
"All by their heads, he places crowns."
Matt Prater, pre-2009 season: Despised, lambasted, Josh McDaniels is derided for not replacing him.
Matt Prater, post-2009 season: Loved, praised, everone forgets the time when they called Josh McDaniels an idiot for not replacing him.
by Tempestuous Binary on Mar 4, 2010 12:29 AM CST reply actions
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