The votes are in!
by Mplax on Mar 11, 2010 4:43 PM CST
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PrintAs many of you may have noticed (or participated in), I made a post a couple days ago about the Charlotte pick to see what people wanted to happen with that. With the amount of talent on this team and the amount of talent that should be available at the pick, we really can't afford to get this wrong. If you want to read some more in depth analysis of why I think things turned out the way they did, keep on reading after the break. If you don't want to, then here are the results:
1. Xavier Henry with 36.6%
2. Greg Monroe with 23.2%
3. James Anderson with 19.6%
4. Donatas Motiejunas with 9.8%
More after the jump!
I'd love to hear some input as I am sure I will miss quite a few points and not do justice to others, but this is why I think things turned out the way that they did.
Xavier Henry: Henry was a top 10 consensus pick a short time ago as he started the season with guns ablazin' but has since cooled down during conference play. It's possible that he is still riding that wave into his current standing amongst Canis faithfuls, but I'd also have to wager that we here know our team better than the national media does (5 PGS?!?!?!). According to DraftExpress.com, Xavier is currently going 19 to Miami. We here know how painful it is to watch a team woefully bereft of talent from beyond the arc. And Xavier's opponents know how painful it is to watch him sink another shot from the perimeter. The man's shooting form is an absolute thing of beauty and I'd love to watch it on a more regular basis.
Starting the season off really hot from the perimeter, he has now cooled down to a more modest 41% (1.23 ppp). Considering he is taking almost 5 attempts per game, that's not a bad number. Compare that to his 50.6% from the rest of the field (.922 ppp) and you'd hope he could get maybe a little higher, but it's not like you are settling for his production at this rate. To make him even a little more efficient, he shoots 77.7% from the line at about 3.5 attempts per game. You'd have to think he will improve as a free throw shooter pretty quickly with his form. Stranger things have(n't) happened though. To cap things off, Xavier is 18 years old and stands a cool 6'6'' 210 and should come in with a good pedigree and willingness to be coached coming from Kansas. Not bad size for a SG.
The only issue if we grabbed him is if we already took Turner. Then we have to fiddle the lineup around Turner, Brewer, Henry, and Ellington. Kind of makes you wonder how we would guard the bigger SFs. Brewer would probably have to play 6th man off the bench first in for Turner or Henry. Ellington would have to be 9th-ish (not a bad spot for what he has shown, I guess). You'd almost think we would package one of these guys for something else. Good problem to have though. I'd recommend taking a look at his DraftExpress page to get a feel of what they say about his game (summary: Not a good shooter off the dribble, good team player and willing passer, average athlete at next level, good control, good effort and instincts with slower lateral ability projects him as a defender of SFs in the NBA).
Greg Monroe: Often criticized for his on-court intensity before this year, he seems to have proven his doubters wrong. He has a very nice NBA frame and a lot of potential to add to that, which he'll need to do if he wants to become a more efficient post scorer in this league. He is currently 19 years old and 6'11'' 240lbs. He was a lot more efficient last year (and had fewer TOs) when he wasn't the primary option in the offense, so it's possible that he will get a little of that back when teams have to respect a guy like Jefferson with Monroe's passing ability. He definitely follows the GeorgeTown mold for bigs (skilled big, good scorer, great passing big). It'd be nice to have a guy who can pass from the post and is listed as "mobile", "fluid", and "versatile" by DraftExpress.
I don't know if he would be a great solution to guarding the perimeter bigs of the league, but he should definitely be more successful than Love or Jefferson. If a coach could get him to buy into a good team defensive rotation (DX lists him as "coachable"), I think a lot of his man defense issues could magically disappear (or at least be forgotten until he starts to get rocked during the playoffs). IMO, he projects a Darko-type effect. Left-handed, mobile, high BBIQ, good instincts, and a good passer. If he gets the rotations down, that's exactly what Darko brings to the table (minus man defense, I guess). So even if he isn't the best defender of the mobile bigs, he will hopefully rotate like Darko does. Like Henry, you'd hope and think (decent shooter for his size) he could improve his FT% as it is currently at 65.5% and he takes 6.2 FTA/game.
As for fit, he wouldn't be perfect next to Love or Jefferson, but he is a solid prospect and could really turn into a good team player. He grabs a decent amount of rebounds, but still is nothing special in this regard. Basically he wouldn't be a liability on the boards like Hollins, but he wouldn't be a fiend either. He's less of a project than Whiteside projects to be, but he is a worse fit for what we need. Not a bad fit, just not perfect. And I think that summarizes what type of pick he would be. Good, but not perfect.
James Anderson: I've honestly never seen this guy play, so I will be basing it hugely (even more than the rest) off of what DX has to say. If anyone who has seen him more wants to do a write up in the comments that I could post here in addition to what the numbers say, that'd be great (UPDATE: For better information, read Casperkid's first comment in the replies. Thanks again, Casperkid!). Basically he is the same height (6'6'') as Xavier, but 15lbs lighter. He looks like he has an NBA-ready body none the less. He shoots worse from range (36.2%) than Henry as well, but he is also the primary option on a much worse team. He attempts 8.1 free throws a game and shoots a decent 80.9%, which makes him a terrificaly efficient scorer. He's better from within the arc than Henry (54%) and it sounds like he does so using screens a la Richard Hamilton. Last comparison to Henry: He is a LOT better at getting his own shot and being able to score off the drible and with a guy in his face. Synergy says he goes to his left 86% of the time so that is a big red flag to me. A lot of teams will exploit that information at the next level compared to how many do now. Then again, maybe he is just as effective and he just gets open on that side more often.. who knows. Apparently he is an atrocious defender? I don't want to post this as fact as I haven't seen him, but DraftExpress is not a fan of his defense. This alone might be what moved Xavier ahead in the voting.
As for fit, it seems as if we would have the same issues as with Xavier as we would have 3 wings at the 2/3 and one who can only play the 2, but no real 3s to at least give the Melos and the Lebrons a bit of trouble on their way to 50. Though Turner could potentially be that man, we'll see.
Donatas Motiejunas: Ahh Motiejunas. The great unknown of the draft. You never know how a college player will project to the NBA. More so, you never know how a big will project in the NBA (there is plenty of evidence for this). Even more so, you don't know how a guy averaging 20mpg will project to the NBA. Even more more so, you don't know how Euros project to the NBA. So how in the hell are we supposed to know how a 19 year old, 7'0'' 215lb, Euro big with no defense who only plays 20mpg will project in the NBA?!?!?! We don't. With the offensive upside of a superstar and the defensive upside of a rock... no... a feather... how do we draft this guy? Well it's because he could project as a superstar on one side of the floor. That's why.
As long as you have a great defensive rotation 1-4, he can come in and light up the scoreboard while doing just enough on the defensive end... ok... while his teammates do more than enough on the defensive end to make that an asset. I guess if we had another pick, Motiejunas and his constant headaches for at least the next 2 years would be a good guy to go with, but we have a lot of holes to fill and, rookie or not, this is not the right way to fill them. I am so curious about the guy, but what it comes down to for me is that I would rather pass on Bargnani for a solid role player than to draft Mavrokefalidis (Spelling? We'll just go with "Alphabet") and pass on a solid role player. In the poll, there were 11 people who would take the risk that Motiejunas will be closer to Bargnani than Alphabet. But I just don't think his upside is quite at a high enough level (maybe if his upside was Dirk?) and I think the chances he reaches his upside are not high enough to pass on the first three guys considering their actual production AND upside.
If you want anything more, in-the-game had a nice writeup of international players in Casperkid's draft board. I'd recommend reading that instead of this. Though I hope this was still at least moderately interesting and accurate for why he ended up in fourth.
That's all. Thanks for reading and please comment about how far off base you think I am or how you think we should use the pick (draft someone else entirely or give us a realistic trade). For the record, I would be pretty happy if we were able to trade this pick for a higher one or for a proven player to fit our team.
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Something I wrote on Anderson Feb 25th to give you a different perspective:
James Anderson is Mr. Offense for the Cowboys. He’s made slow, steady progress in both improving his body and his game the past two years at Oklahoma State, and while there are still some worries about how he’ll translate to the NBA level, he’s answered a lot of the questions people had about him his freshman year.
At 6’6, 220lbs with decent (not exceptional) length and good upper body strength, he has an NBA body for a SG. Athletically, he’s solid and he rarely tires. He’s not an explosive leaper, as you rarely see him dunk or get a lot of lift when he blocks the occasional shot, but he does possess great lateral quickness and has good straight-line speed.
A major limitation of Anderson’s on offense is the lack of good ball-handling skills, even though he’s improved over the past two years as being more comfortable with the ball. When he drives, he drives left about 90% of the time (even though he’s a right-handed shooter), and most of the time they are swooping drives from the right wing all the way to the left side of the hoop. He is comfortable going straight ahead, but not making quick cuts with the ball. Because of this, he’s most effective when he creates his offense before getting the ball. However, that’s not to say he can’t create his own offense in college, because he can basically do everything you need from a scoring standpoint but drive in a crowded lane and look comfortable going right… it’s more that he’s just an awesome catch-and-shoot player coming off screens, so he’s most deadly doing that.
His scoring skills outside of that are plentiful, and they’re very efficient as he leads the SG prospects I follow in scoring efficiency by a wide margin. He has deep, deep range and can hit shots with a hand in his face. He can stop and pop. In the post, he has good conversion rates on turnaround jumpers and can also spin and take it to the rim on occasion. He’s even hit a handful of high glass bank shots from 10-15 feet out. Finally, because all this, he occasionally utilizes shot fakes to get his man on his toes and then drives past them when there’s an open lane. Unfortunately, he’s not an explosive finisher, and will almost always lay it in instead of dunking – though he can use either hand. When there is room to drive, he’s good at seeking contact and getting himself to the line – where he’s a very good foul shooter for a SG and possesses a nice stroke.
Outside of scoring, he’s a relatively average or below average playmaker. He makes very questionable passes once or twice a game, sometimes passes that are not even close to the target. He also doesn’t possess good vision for a guard – or maybe he does see the passing lanes, but knows that his passing ability isn’t good enough to fit them in tight spaces. That’s not to say he’s a selfish player, because he moves the ball around well and only forces the issue sometimes – which is perfectly okay because that’s his role. He just isn’t very skilled when it comes to passing and therefore, when combined with his ball-handling troubles, would likely need to be on a team that shares the ball or has a ball-dominant PG.
On the other side of the floor, he does a good job pressuring his man on the perimeter, frequently being so locked in on staying with his man, that he often doesn’t help out on the weakside where there’s an opportunity. When he does help on the weakside, it’s usually when the ball isn’t on his side of the floor, so he can sag into the paint – and it’s there where he usually comes up with his blocks. Back to his man-defense, his good athleticism, strength, and lateral quickness are on display here, because he can easily stay with his man even if he’s active on the offensive end without the ball. While he doesn’t look to steal the ball and doesn’t have active hands in that sense, he does a good job at disrupting potential passing lanes by keeping his arms outstretched. Fundamentally, he’s come a long way from when he was a freshman, to where he’s a good college defender (often being on the other team’s best offensive backcourt player) and should be solid in the NBA.
When it comes to rebounding, he’s a kind of forgettable. He likes to mix it up and crash the boards offensively at times, but sometimes that leads to the opponents getting fast break opportunities. Defensively, he isn’t a strong rebounding guard and mainly just gets his boards by being in the right place at the right time, and occasionally being aggressive.
Overall, those who have followed him since his freshman season can see the improvement he’s made in his all-around game. Hopefully, he’ll be able to continue to improve his handle, because otherwise he’s going to be fairly limited offensively in the pros as a SG who gets most of his offense created for him. The upside is there to be a #2 scorer in the NBA, though he’s more likely destined to be a forgettable fringe starting SG. I currently have him 16th and he’ll likely hold steady there unless he really turns it up come tournament time.
Forgot to ask
where did you get 220? Because I was a little surprised that DraftExpress had him listed at 195 when he looked almost the exact same size as Henry (Which would be the 220 you said).
My eyes
I don’t know if that’s kosher or not, and I think Henry is more than 220 as well, but I really don’t allow myself to trust the listed heights or weights so I usually just estimate myself.
I disagree about his overall game
I think James Anderson has a better handle than Xavier Henry. I realize that Henry is younger and therefore could improve his handle but look how far Anderson has come in two years. Maybe it’s just the way the two are used in their current programs but I think Anderson is much more of a threat to penetrate to the basket than Henry. Like I said that could be because of their systems and also who they are playing with. It will be very interesting to see what Henry and Anderson measurements are, as I agree they look very similar in size. I am higher on Anderson than Casper, especially when looking at the Wolves needs. I’d take him over at least 5 of the bigs that are going to get drafted before him.
Out of the four guys you listed, I'd go with Henry
I don’t think there’s a chance he falls to the MIA picks if he declares, he’s a young talented player with an NBA body and good athleticism.
Monroe is arguably the better prospect right now, but when you factor in what the Timberwolves need Henry seems like the better choice.
Sounds like Anderson is a great kid/person. Can’t have too many of those right? I’d probably prefer Henry as he’s likely got a little better upside, but I don’t think he’ll be on he board at 15.
Monroe is interesting. Nice skill/size, but lacking the killer instinct that limits his potential. A Jason Thompson type player?
NBADraft.net just did their first mock draft with teams drafting for need. Cole Aldrich slipped to #12. If he’s really going to fall to the range of the Charlotte pick, I’d make a play to get him. He’s not going to light the league on fire, but to me he seems like a Joel Pryzbilla with more offensive potential.
It does seem like there should be enough depth in this draft to drop a very nice prospect into the mid teens. C’mon Charlotte!
NBADraft.net has a history of not being very reliable
So I wouldn’t put too much stock into that. Despite that though, I don’t disagree with their mock as much as I wish I did. There are quite a few people who I think are far out of place (If we can pick up Willie Warren with the 32nd pick… there is absolutely 0 reason to pass on him). The thing I do like is that they seem to have a lot of the guys who we would consider value picks higher than most places. But then they have a random person in the strangest place without any explanation.
GREAT find on the other article though. Really does make him sound Turner-esque in terms of personality.
I like the Jason Thompson comp. Maybe him with less athleticism and better passing/instincts. And, as of current measurements, they are the same height and Thompson is only 10lbs heavier. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Monroe (wherever he ends up) has that same type of effect.
NBADraft.net
You’re right about some of their weird projections.
I remember during the preseason year they had Evan Turner in the teens/twenties in the 2011 draft. I posted at TWolvescentral about why and no one had a good reason.
Warren in the 2nd round could be a steal. Not Gilbert Arenas steal, but still a good pick. Too bad really that we dealt our 2nd rounder essentially for a few million bucks in the Chucky Atkins deal. This draft is shaping up to be quite deep IMO.
Aldrich
I could see Cole slipping a bit. He’s not going to have a flashy workout most likely and his numbers haven’t really improved.
Guys like Whiteside and Favors will move up. Cousins won’t drop that far. A Euro like Monejunas will get hyped. Aminu and Johnson will demonstrate their athletcism and teams will drool about the potential. Greg Monroe’s skill could push him ahead of Cole.
It’s not unlikely that Aldrich could fall out of the top 10 so I’d be ready to move up if possible.
If we nabbed Turner and Aldrich, traded Al for Deng and Taj Gibson, resigned Darko affordably (unlikely? More likely bring over Pekovic), and signed Azuibuike we’ve turned a horrible defensive team into a team with multiple strong defenders: Turner, Deng, Brewer, Gibson and Aldrich.
Flynn, Sessions
Turner, Azuibuike
Deng, Brewer
Love, Gibson
Aldrich, Pekovic, Hollins
Where was Ed Davis?
Has anyone heard whether he will be staying at NC? Passing on a likely spot in the top half of the lottery would be tough. And in this instance would push Aldrich and Anderson down another rung.
Sounds like Davis is going to go pro
They mentioned during the UNC/Ga Tech game last night that most people in the UNC program expect Davis to turn pro. It sounds like he is almost a lock for the top 10 so I don’t see anyway he stays with the changes that could be made in the new CBA.
Speaking of that game
Favors really put on a show in that game, really impressed me.
by Bad News Wolves on Mar 13, 2010 9:40 AM CST up reply actions
Watched the G-Town/Cuse game today...
and was impressed with the fire and emotion that Monroe showed. He really wanted to win this game and made some big plays at the end to seal it up. True, he’ll probably never be able to score like Al or board like Love, but he’s an excellent passer, efficient with his offensive game, and a surprisingly decent ballhandler for his size. Overall, he should be a solid player for many years.
Wes Johnson had a good game as well, but there’s just something about him I’m not sure of. Very good shooter, hustles, but I worry about his handle and defense. I guess he reminds me a little of Wesley Person. I don’t think our team D is good enough to cover for him (similar to Jonny – Cuse’s 2/3 covers a lot of sins). However, his is a good shooter and could really benefit when teamed up with Rubio in 2 years (hope,hope, hope, etc.).
I just don't see Wes Johnson in our plans
I think if we don’t land 1 or 2, Kahn goes with one of the bigs. The only way we get Wes is if he slips to the Charlotte pick.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 11, 2010 9:56 PM CST up reply actions
Yeah, that makes sense.
Ideally we are in the top two. But I agree with you – let’s grab one of the bigs if we aren’t.
Watched Favors against UNC tonight and he played very well. You can really sense the potential there. I was really surprised by his offense – nice arrray of post moves and a surprising touch from midrange. Kinda reminds me of Joe Smith, but Favors has more overall size. I think he could play along side either Al or Kevin.
Jordan KO'd Whiteside............
Whiteside didn’t look like what I expected. He lacked energy and has an awful shot. Jordan is a talented big and his strength was too much for the young kid. I’d be surprised if Whiteside went in the top ten. I think the wolves could easily get him with their second pick, but he will be a work in progress……….
Disappointing. Jordan is 23 years old though and one would guess more physically mature. Despite the poor effort/perfomance, Whiteside still had 6 blks, an impressive number.
He’s likely going to be too big a risk to take very high, but if around at the Charlotte pick, don’t you have to bite on that kind of shot blocking potential provided it comes with decent all-around defense? I guess it depends on who else is there and what else we do, but the Wolves of all teams could afford some patience with an additional draft pick (we’ve got to get an impact guy with our pick).
by Blond Ricky on Mar 11, 2010 10:13 PM CST up reply actions
If you had your choice at the Charlotte pick (or being able to trade up for either of them)
would you rather take Whiteside’s upside or what we already are fairly certain that Aldrich will bring to the table?
I honestly can’t decide… On the one hand, Marcus Camby? On the other hand Darko2.0. But then we have to ask, can Aldrich be effective in the role we would need him for? He could protect the rim, yes. But could he defend the mobile bigs? Tough call.
I think I take Aldrich before Whiteside.
Because, presumably, our center isn’t going to be our star player, but rather a role player who fit in the system, rebound, and play effective defense, I think you go with a guy who you know can do at least those things. We’re better off getting a solid, functional center who can protect the paint than we are gambling on an upside guy who might suffer from Hollinsitis when we’re talking about the center position, in my opinion.
I agree for the most part
I just really hope that we have our scouts working overtime to figure out which players might drop to see who they should look at more. If we somehow end up with a choice between the two, I want them to be ready to take Whiteside if they think he is more than just upside, but I want them to take Aldrich without thinking twice about it if they are even 50/50 on Whiteside.
Whiteside scares the crap out of me.
I just don’t see him becoming much in the NBA. I’d take Aldrich without a doubt over him and I’m not a huge Aldrich fan.
by Bad News Wolves on Mar 13, 2010 9:44 AM CST up reply actions
Agreed
on the one hand, if Whiteside reaches nears his ceiling he will be an allstar and the absolute perfect fit for this (or most) team. On the other hand, if Whiteside flames out no one would be surprised.
I’m also opposed to drafting him because of expectations. We absolutely can no afford to draft this guy and have him sit in the DLeague or use crappy bench minutes for at least a year. Fans are going to expect a top 10 pick to come in and be a verge allstar almost immediately or else we wasted the pick (see Flynn, Jonny). It’s unrealistic to expect that, but that won’t stop it from happening.
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