Open Game Thread - Gophers v Evan Turner
by Mplax on Mar 14, 2010 1:07 PM CDT
27 comments
Here it is folks, the biggest game of the year for Timberwolves fans! Our Golden Gophers take on -Evan Turner- Ohio State at 2:30 today. I figure why not get together and have an Evan Turner love fest while watching our own Gophers at the same time. What will he be able to do coming off of 2 days of come-from-behind overtime victories? Will the Gophers defense be able to replicate what they did to Purdue? Evan Turner has his work cut out for him today and the answers to these questions will be given in about four hours.
For anyone who likes to bet out there, I took the final score being under 129 with the Gophers coming out on top.
Wait who are we cheering for again?
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2 jump balls in a row...
good hustle by both teams on defense
Turner's NBA prospects
I can’t even predict. He’s the focal point of a team playing without a true point guard or center. He’s indisputably smart, aggressive, a stat stuffer, etc. But I’d love to see him play several games as a true shooting guard. His 35.6% career 3pt% matches Brewer’s shooting at Florida, and Brewer shot a lot more.
Comparing both players on statsheet.com and they are very similar statistically, with Turner obvious getting bumps on assists and rebounding because he’s playing pg this year, and OSU doesn’t play a center. In their comparative junior seasons, I think Brewer and Turner both had offensive ratings of 109 or 110. (DeRozan had an offensive rating of 108 last year). By comparison Brandon Roy’s last two NCAA years had offensive ratings of 122 and 125 and efg% of 60+.
I’m not trying to hate on Turner-love – but I think the situation he has played in this year creates a little uncertainty into what your drafting. Sometimes that works out (Tyreke Evans) and sometimes it doesn’t (Randy Foye).
It's not a bad comparison
I have actually thought it a few times. Very similar player to Corey Brewer. Except for a major point: He’s in control.
Imagine Corey Brewer doing what he does… except with complete control. Wow. That’s a player I want on my team. And a better defender. Plus, our coaching staff did a terrific job on Corey this year with the shooting and by all accounts, Evan Turner is a better student of the game.
On a side note, Boston and Cleveland are playing on ABC right now and KG has tape or a brace on his right leg that makes him look even older. I doubt they make it very far in the playoffs this year.
You hit on two differences I immediately thought of
Control and student of the game. Barring injuries, I believe Turner’s NBA projection is at a minimum a tier or two above where Brewer is today. This means at worst Turner projects to being an average NBA SG. More likely, I think he ends up being somewhere in the 5-10 range of NBA SGs. I have no problem with this, and like the fact that this pick would have less downside than anyone else they could select.
If the Wolves get Turner, the focus then moves to improving the SF position. Whether that means trading Brewer to upgrade, or moving other parts (Jefferson or Love) for a dynamic SF and keeping Brewer around to be super sub, I don’t know and it probably depends on what is available. Either way, if the Wolves get the 2nd pick and end up with Turner, I think the wings go from their weakness to their strength within two seasons, if not next season.
I just keep coming back to
the observation that a lot of the guys who have been ‘The Guy’ on their team, and managed to carry them pretty far in the tournament, end up being pretty good. Dwade and Melo are the two who most come to mind, but even from last year a guy like Blake Griffin or Stephen Curry are other examples (or Tyreke maybe). I know it’s not necessarily a causal relationship, but I think guys who have produced under that pressure and under those expectations in college are better prepared to handle the NBA from a mental and preparation standpoint (see also: Jennings, Brandon). Guys who come from programs with a lot of talent on them also do well, but aren’t always the stars we hope they’ll be (Ty Lawson, for example, or Brewer as another example). That’s my biggest concern about Wall and Cousins – they’re playing a team with three NBA first round draft picks, and perhaps three NBA lottery picks. In many ways there should be no excuse for them not winning the NCAA tournament this year. Absolutely none. I think Turner carrying the load for Ohio State will pay large dividends in the NBA in ways that will be become apparent when both he and Wall struggle next year (and they will, all rookies do).
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 14, 2010 10:01 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah
I’m sure there are exceptions, but great players who carry a team (against good competition in a good conference) usually end up being good NBA players. Good players in weak conferences (Adam Morrison I believe) can be an exception.
Look at how many North Carolina and Duke players have been flops in the NBA, with them the team helps because the opposing defense can’t focus on one or two players.
The Gophers have played pretty well over the last month, and didn’t play bad in the 1st half today, but Turner almost on his own kept OSU ahead going into halftime. That is impressive. I really believe if the Wolves get Turner and get rid of Sasha, they win 30 games next season. Of course I am also assuming Jefferson is back to 100% and Love doesn’t miss a month, and maybe Darko is back…but Turner over Ellington or whoever at SG is worth at least five wins next season.
If we upgrade to average
at Sasha and Hollins’ expense over the season we’ll be close to thirty wins, IMO. Adding Turner should definitely get us there.
It’s kind of funny – the road to 30-40 wins is actually within grasp, but the road beyond 40 wins is the big question. Here’s my thinking: removing the last of the dead wood on this team and replacing it with replacement level (average) players should bring this team to within sniffing range of 30 wins. That means bringing Darko back and starting him at center at 20-30 minutes a game, that means no Sasha and no Stewie, that means Hollins plays 10 minutes a game or less (or not at all). It also means that Sessions gets the starting nod ahead of Jonny, that all PG defense is upgraded to average, and that Al sticks around and is healthy. Lastly, it means Love gets 30 minutes a night, night in and night out. All things staying the same, that’s a 20-25 win squad. Add in a couple first round draft picks or a FA or two, and hence a team that could reasonably win 30 games.
With Rubio coming over, (and who knows what Pek will become so I’m not really factoring him in), and the expected improvement of our young players over time (and better understanding of the system/defense), that team could grow into a 35-40 win squad, but that’s about the ceiling. So, to me, thinking of it that way kind of clarifies what this off season and draft is about – getting to 40 wins in 2-3 years is attainable by just drafting safe and targeting average or replacement level role players and simply giving the same group of guys more time in the system (the triangle, I think, benefits teammates who know each other’s tendencies perhaps moreso than any other system).
If the goal is more than 40 wins in a few years, then this draft and off season becomes a whole lot more risky (and exciting) because we’re going to have to either identify hidden talents no else will or nab FAs who are undervalued and will blow up on our team (in a good way). In other words, if we land the third pick we take Cousins over anyone else because he has the highest upside and superstar potential of anyone left in the draft. With the Bobcats’ pick we roll the dice on perhaps a guy like Aminu, hoping he becomes a Josh Smith type SF and not just another hopeful.
This off season will speak volumes about the next 5+ years of this franchise (either there’s hope, or simply another eventual new FO).
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 15, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
It is going to be very interesting indeed.
I’m just so tired of this season. Bring on the offseason!!!
That’s so sad.
by Krotz the Wall on Mar 15, 2010 2:06 PM CDT up reply actions
IF the Wolves get Turner
the key may be what they are willing to do with Flynn and Brewer and all the assets not yet on the team. I’d really like to see them move several of these parts for a great wing who complements Turner’s game, even if that means a season with only Sessions at PG while waiting for Rubio. It will probably take about three deals that keep trading two parts for one, ultimately getting that dynamic wing. At least we know Kahn is someone willing to make the moves.
Not trying to compare
Brewer and Turner as players. I can see the difference by watching. Just pointing out that Turner’s stats are comparable against recent top ten shooting guard picks. But none of those other guys were considered a top two pick. Turner’s getting a big bump this year because of his situation. Could you imagine a junior O.J. Mayo playing in college as a point guard? He’d kill people.
I just wish we could see Turner play some in a traditional shooting guard role. At this point I give no credit to Turner’s assist and rebounding numbers. They are result from his position, playing without a true center, and playing with three superior offensive wings (Diebler, Lighty, and Buford). The Wolves need interior defense and perimeter scoring, in that order. I am not sure Turner addresses either of those issues – although I agree he is an upgrade over what we have. I think if you pick a ball handling SG like Turner, moving Rubio is kind of a given. Brewer probably as well, because he’s not a SF. It wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world.
As I write this Turner is killing. He’s had several high-level perimeter shots and a nice post-up fade away. I wouldn’t fault the Wolves for picking Turner.
Just because you don't give him credit for his assist and rebound numbers
doesn’t mean I can’t. Yes, the circumstances contribute, but he’s a terrific passer and reads the glass very well. Unlike Brewer, he’s THE focal player on a top level college team; in other words, he has led this team to the upper echelon.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 14, 2010 4:03 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Turner ends up playing SG
But being kind of a 2nd PG on the court, kind of like KG when he was here.
Rebounding
Turner is a great rebounder. Watching him against Illinois was like watching Love out there – he just has a knack for where to be and a tenacity for grabbing the rebound. I would also make the observation that he led the Big Ten in rebounding this year. Part of that is just the number of minutes per game he plays, but the dude’s got skills.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 14, 2010 10:04 PM CDT up reply actions
Wow, i didn't know that
I’m going to throw out a name we can all relate to if we are old enough. The rebounding ability puts him in an area like Bobby Jackson, not that Jackson led the Big 10, but he was a very good rebounder. In a lot of ways, Turner has a Bobby Jackson kind of game, except he is about four inches taller. Jackson had a good ten year career, Turner will be much better because his size fits his game.
Ooo ya,
I loved Bobby Jackson. The Twolves need guys like him – he was tough, a gamer, and always looking to improve and get better as an individual player but also as a team player. I’d love it if he could mentor Flynn. Turner’s like Bobby Jackson on steroids and with a ton more game. Sweet!
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 15, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Ohio
is a .500 team without Turner. They’ve only lost 3(?) with him. A lot of his play is because there isn’t a PG or C, but how many other players could you throw into that role and have them lead the Big 10 in rebounds? I’d personally enjoy having him play PG for us just to see how it works. If it does, you have an extreme mismatch at the guard spot in probably 65-70 games throughout the year.
Westbrook remind anyone else of Barbosa? Not play, just looks.
I really think Tubby blew the strategy in this game. He played a pace way faster than he should have considering the advantage they have in a half court defensive set. He also focused way too much on stopping Turner and not enough on stopping the 3pt shot from everywhere.
Heard this earlier today
Turner came back around January 7th. Since then, according to the radio host, the only game OSU lost was January 9th against the Gophers in the Barn. The Gophers still had Nolen, and they played a great game. Even then, Turner had 19 points and kept OSU in the game.
Disagree on the Rubio take
I’d love to see Rubio and Turner together in the back court. High basketball IQ and great ball movement, would be fun to watch. Also good size as defenders. The one impact on Rubio would probably be that he would need to become a real good 3 point shooter to complement Turner’s ability to score from anywhere and get to the hoop. BTW, that was a great spin move late in the game that got Turner fouled and his 29th point. His ability to put up big points without seeming selfish is very intriguing.
I'm going to shut up now
Turner has impressed the hell out of me today.
I wonder why
no one has suggested we draft Lighty? :)
Injuries
Hasn’t he had a career of injury problems? Buford also has a sweet shot.
Last year he only played 7 games
but besides that…
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