Hollinger's NCAA PER
by mjfan02 on Mar 15, 2010 2:44 PM CDT
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PrintJohn Hollinger released some advanced stats for college players today. In addition to his usual PER, he also formulated Reb%, Ast%, TO% and usage rates in all games against Division 1 opponents.
http://insider.espn.go.com/ncb/hollinger/statistics
The most interesting stat though was Player Efficiency Rating.
I had an idea going in that DeMarcus Cousins was going to rate pretty high, seeing as how he puts up 15.3 points and 10.1 rebounds in only 23 minutes per game, so I was unsurprised when he came in #1 in the NCAA with a PER of 35.45 (LeBron James has a PER of 31.79 in the NBA if you need a reference point). Evan Turner came in 5th overall at 31.3, but was 2nd among players from major conferences. John Wall missed the top-100 and came in with a PER of 22.4.
Some other players of interest in the top-100 are below ...
8. Luke Harangody - 29.97
12. James Anderson - 29.63
25. Hassan Whiteside - 28.52
31. Cole Aldrich - 28.01
45. Ed Davis - 26.15
68. Greg Monroe - 25.26
74. Ekpe Udoh - 25.07
79. Derrick Favors - 24.89
91. Al Farouq-Aminu - 24.7
96. Solomon Alabi - 24.35
99. Patrick Patterson - 24.27
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Kind of
I think his stats lean to heavily on rebounding rates. Plus big men in college generally shoot very high percentages because of the lack of other big men to defend them. I was shocked to see Wall not in the top 100 though.
Wall really hasn't been that good.
He has the occasional WOW play, and is perfectly productive for a freshman, but the fascination is much more due to potential than actual performance.
I think the end of regulation against miss state on Sunday is a good analogy to Kentucky’s season as a whole. Wall made some excellent plays on both sides of the ball to help put Kentucky in position, then badly whiffed the game winner only to be bailed out by Cousins. I’m not sure Wall would be the consensus #1 that he didn’t have Cousins as a teammate.
That said, you only need to watch Kentucky play for about 5 minutes to see why everyone thinks he is going to be something special. I think he is likely to be one of those players that is for some weird reason better in the NBA than he was in college, right off the bat.
One thing to consider...
is that Kentucky’s opponents are forced into playing zone defense, whether they like it or not, and that’s solely due to John Wall. No other player in the country has such a noticeable effect on the opponent’s defensive gameplan.
That is true..
in particular it calls to mind the game they lost against Tennessee, where Tenn won by not allowing Wall any access up the middle.
However, I have heard several places that as the season has progressed, teams have moved more and more towards collapsing down and double/tripling Cousins as soon as he gets the ball, while begging Wall to shoot from distance. We know shooting isn’t Wall’s strong point, but the fact that the optimal strategy has been to focus on shutting down Cousins doesn’t necessarily sing Wall’s praise. Not to mention that Cousins continues to put up jaw-dropping stats even after defenses have basically schemed to stop him at all costs.
If only he didn't have such issues
it would be a three-man draft. And it’s still the only reason I have to convince myself that Favors is a better pick than Cousins (well… and the insane athleticism).
The one good thing if we somehow end up with Wall is that he is getting plenty of shooting practice with this strategy. If we get Cousins, he is getting plenty of practice being the focus of the defense. Which whether or not he is at the next level, should still prepare him to deal with better defense.
True...
and in doing so (collapsing inside) defenses kill two birds with one stone in limiting Wall’s dribble penetration and Cousins’ interior dominance. That said, both players must be doing something right if Kentucky is 32-2 while being led by freshmen.
But, I still think that while zone, sagging defense is the best available option against Kentucky, it’s far from ideal. It usually means losing by 7 or 8, instead of 25.
Not sure if this information is available
as I don’t often try to figure out how these “One-Stat” statistics are calculated, but do you know if PER is calculated on a flat rebound rate or if it is rebound rate in comparison to your positional peers? Because I find it unfair to weight a guard against a C in rebounding (And along those same lines, in assists).
Not sure ...
The PER formula is really only explained in Hollinger’s book (although basketball-reference.com attempts to explain it here). It’s a lot more complicated than you would expect.
I don't know who all those players are
but it looks to me like there are only 2 or 3 true guards in the entire top 100. Am I right? I don’t count Turner as a point guard since he’s out of position there. It seems like all 3’s, 4’s and 5’s on that list. If you go by position, Wall is one of the top guards according to PER.
Not really ...
These are only 13 of the top 100 players (plus Wall) … I only listed ones that have been mentioned numerous times as potential draft targets. If you check the link you’ll notice that there are a lot of players from smaller schools that we may not be familiar with.
But seeing as how there are two, maybe three, point guards that will be taken in the first round this year it’s not surprising that there isn’t a lot of talent at the position.
I'm pretty sure the reference was to the linked list of the actual top 100
and there does only seem to be a handful of true PGs on that list… mostly from smaller conference schools.
by Krotz the Wall on Mar 16, 2010 10:25 AM CDT up reply actions
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