Ellington developing nicely
by Wile E Coyote on Mar 15, 2010 5:06 PM CDT
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Wayne Ellington has kind of been flying under the radar. But in looking at this stats recently, there seems to be some good news.
According to 82games his defense has been a positive. He actually has the best ON/OFF defensive numbers of any Wolves wing.
Now check out his shooting percentages broken down by month:
Mon FG% 3P%
Oct 0.313 0.000
Nov 0.305 0.261
Dec 0.447 0.267
Jan 0.463 0.469
Feb 0.475 0.500
Mar 0.481 0.545
The guy is on fire right now. Would be interesting to see him move into the starting lineup for a few games to see what he could do vs. the big boys.
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Yep. Nice to see.
It’s not always a good idea to post two stats, when one is dependant on the other. Really, the only thing that has improved is the 3 point shooting. The FG% only gets better because the 3 point shooting is better. He has definitely improved though.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 15, 2010 6:14 PM CDT reply actions
ellington
with those numbers the last four months he looks like the starter on this team.
He should be the starter on this team.
However, that would mean taking Ryan Gomes out of the starting lineup.
This is an interesting question..
Could Wayne Ellington be the long term starter at the SG position? We always talk about Evan Turner or needing a great wing in the draft, but could Ellington and Brewer be the long-term answer? If not, why not?
No.
Because the aren’t good enough. If they were (especially Brewer, who has had no lack of minutes), this wouldn’t be a 14 win team.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 16, 2010 7:09 AM CDT up reply actions
But, just to play Devil's advocate
Both Brewer and Ellington strike me as being rather undervalued this year in terms of their contributions and talent levels. Now I’m not saying they’re on Al or Love’s level, but if those guys (the ‘core’ of our team) were as good as they’re supposed to be, this wouldn’t be a 14 win team. I don’t think Brewington are All-Stars waiting to happen, but they might look damn good next to a back court maestro and a new team emphasis that the identity of the team is the said backcourt maestro and not the two twin stumps under the basket.
Just think about how their roles would become clarified naturally around what they’re already good at – Ellington’s gaudy .496 efg% and high efficiency shot selection would be there for kickouts, and Brewer could cut to the basket for alley-oops or drift back for a trey. Those aren’t bad options, especially given that you aren’t asking them to create their own shots because you’ve got a guy who’s already brilliant at doing that (not saying who that is, but you can see how certain likely draft picks and Euros may fit into this concept).
My hope this offseason is that we are able to abandon once and for all this notion that our team’s identity is as an inside, low post team. It’s not. You look at our ‘assets’ (hat tip to mplax) and our best, most developable talent is all on the perimeter – Ellington, Brewer, Sessions, Flynn. What do we have on the inside that we don’t already know what we’ve got? Al? Please. Love? Maybe, but I think we’ve established this year that these guys aren’t those guys who can carry teams above mediocrity. Darko? Great addition, but he’s not Shaq out there. We have nothing to lose anymore. We have given Al every opportunity to show what he can be and the results are that he is what he is – a 20-10 guy every night with limited defensive impact and apparent limited impact on making his surrounding teammates better.
We want to run, we want to run the triangle. We have young, improving guys on the wing. Mark my words – in 2 years time this team’s identity and leadership will be from the perimeter and not from under the basket. The sooner the organization embraces that cultural shift/truth the better off we are. This summer marks, in my opinion, the transition away from Al’s team to ______’s team.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
But it isn't enough
It just isn’t. One of your starting wing players has to be more dominant that either of those guys are capable of being. At least one of them has to be a shot creator, no matter who your point guard is.
I don’t mind either off the bench; Ellington especially has a specific role that’s valuable. But these are not starters on good teams. Brewer simply is neither creative enough nor efficient enough for that major a role.
It seems clear that the focus of the team is going to move away from the 4 position, which is fine, but it’s going to be because they (hopefully) massively improve on the wings, which means new personnel.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 16, 2010 9:32 AM CDT up reply actions
You're probably right...
but suppose we draft Turner and Rubio shows up. Neither is a great outside shooter from long distance and both can create shots for other players. With those two on the court, wouldn’t a guy like Ellington fit in nicely as a starter? He wouldn’t be our best player by a long shot, but it seems like he’d be a nice guy to have around if the team goes in that direction.
Possibly
Sure, if Rubio and Turner are both excellent, then a guy like Ellington might fit shooting mostly open 3s, being a tertiary ball handler, and using his smarts at both ends. Sure. Ideally, they would find a small forward sized version of Ellington to do that, but yes, in such circumstances, Ellington could be a starter on a good team.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 16, 2010 9:50 AM CDT up reply actions
To be clear
I think Brewington could be starters, but they don’t have to be. My point is that if put Brewinton on, say, the Hornets, that they’d look pretty damn good. Or put them on the Jazz or Phoenix. They aren’t stars, and they aren’t guys who can create their own shots (and I know you aren’t saying that), but they are the kind of guys who could be tailor made for capitalizing on opportunities created by a top notch playmaker/generator – one because he’s so damn efficient and can shoot lights out, the other because he’s relentless energetic and appears to be gaining (in leaps and bounds, literally) in his ability to finish at the rim and drain the trey.
So perhaps a better way to put it is that I see them as being far more valuable on a winning team than Ryan Gomes – an efficient shooter and three point specialist who can play reasonable defense (the new Freddy Hoiberg?) and the athletic and long and tenacious SG/SF who can guard 1-3’s, drive to the hoop, and hit from downtown. These are role players/bench players/starters next to Rubio and Turner that we don’t need to upgrade because we already have them.
I do agree that SF is a morass of muck right now. I love Wilkens as our veteran mentor and backup, but if we draft Turner than either Turner or Brewer (in the short term) has to move over there. Long term it’d be nice to land a guy like Josh Childress at that spot – efficient, smart, and a great defender, the kind of guy who would play real well off of a guy like Rubio and/or Turner.
This then raises the final question of who are our bigs? Again, for me, it comes down to fundamentally re-imagining who we think we are at that position. In my best case scenario Love would become the exception among our bigs, in that all our bigs should have at least one plus physical attribute to go along with one plus skill attribute. So, for example, you’d build around a guy like Darko (who, per36, is like Andrew Bogut Jr., FWIW) with plus size and length and plus defense, passing, and maybe offense; you’d keep Love (plus passing and rebounding and shooting but not size), and maybe around Pekovic (plus size/strength and interior scoring) and draft a bouncy, long (6’-10" + )PF type with some shooting ability.
So long term vision would be a team like this (and what you’d be hoping they’d produce in pts/ast or reb):
Rubio (10/10)/Sessions/Flynn (sparkplug/instant offense)
Turner (25/8/8)/Ellington (13-15 ppg)/Brewer/Flynn
Childress (15/6)/Brewer (12/2-3 steals)/Wilkins
Love (15/12+)/bouncy long PF
Darko (10/10/2-3 blks)/Pekovic (8-10 ppg)
Your stars: Rubio and Turner
Your instant offense: Jonny and Pek
Your defensive attitude: Darko, Childress, Turner, and Brewer
Your play creating: Rubio, Turner, and Sessions
Your anti-Jonny Stopping: Childress, Love, and Darko
Your occassional ‘20+ scorer’: Brewer, Flynn, Ellington
Your final 2 minute lineup (depending on need/matchups):
Rubio/Ellington
Turner/Brewer
Childress/Turner/Brewer
Love/bouncy PF (only for guarding the Melo’s/Nowitzki’s/Josh Smith’s of the world)
Darko
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 10:51 AM CDT up reply actions
Seems...
like your scenario is screaming for a trade of Al for a high lottery pick to draft Derrick Favors as the long, boucy PF.
by Blond Ricky on Mar 16, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Ya, maybe
Or try to net a future first or two and look for that guy next year, or take a flier on a Euro. The long bouncy guy doesn’t have to contribute right away, so you should be able to find a guy later in the draft who has a good foundation but is maybe too young or raw or whatever. A guy like Austin Daye last year.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
see below…Paul George?
Athletic, long, good shooter, defensive rep? A project with good upside.
by Blond Ricky on Mar 16, 2010 11:03 AM CDT up reply actions
perhaps
I’d like to see a guy with better size – 6’-10 or taller/longer, but I’d take George anyways. I don’t think Hollins is the answer, but we need someone to stick with the long, tall, athletic 4’s in the WC who also have range. Love ain’t that guy, and neither is Darko.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Or
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Vesely?
Imagine having the option of stretches where Turner (6’7"), Brewer (6’9"), and Vesely (6’10") lock down the perimeter for stretches in most games. He has the athleticism to cover the 3 right now, and it seems like he’ll have the build in a few years to cover the stretch 4s when they roll into town. I’m fascinated with this kid. Shades of Kirilenko, I think, and a hard-working athlete like that is an intriguing piece.
BTW
I like the scenario although unless Turner improves a lot as a shooter (Rubio too) we’re looking pretty weak as far as 3’s/perimter shooting during crunch time.
With Rubio/Turner we’d ideally have a jumping jack/defender/3 point shooter at the 3, like a young Posey when he was shooting well. I’d love for Paul George to fall to the Utah pick.
by Blond Ricky on Mar 16, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
That’s why I think Ellington is such a great find – you’d have flexibility, depending on matchups, to have either Rubio or Turner out there to make plays. Opposing defenses would have to honor either of them, and having Ellington as a sniper would be great. Or having Brewer as a defensive guy who can also finish or drain threes would be great. In fact, they’d both help Rubio/Turner because teams would have to honor their long range ability. So to me it’s a nice mix of length, athleticism, positional flexibility, and skill sets.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:04 AM CDT up reply actions
Turner's shooting
I dont think his outside shot is that bad. his form is decent and his shot seems to be pretty accurate. The games ive seen he hasnt had many/any bad misses. his percentage isnt great but it has improved recently. Plus alot of the misses ive seen hit the rim a couple times before bouncing out, maybe if he added just a little more arc those shots would fall.
I really think both Turner and Rubio will be competent, if not great 3p shooters
Flynn, Brewer, and Love, will also be ok. A bunch of ok 3 point shooters and Ellington should be enough. I’d really like to see us draft a Henry or other though…
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 16, 2010 4:56 PM CDT up reply actions
Brewer not creative enough
I’d almost argue that he is too creative for his own good :)
I like B2B's vision of the future
Along those lines, what if we do land the #1 overall pick? If we want to become the athletic, running team that Kahn has envisioned, why not pick Wall and try to use our other assets (rights to Rubio, Big Al, etc.) to land a top-flight SG/SF via the draft or a sign-and-trade?
If we get Wall
the Wolves would certainly need to make some trades. I have no idea what the team would become, but it’d be interesting to find out. With Turner, it’s easier to see how things might go. I don’t even want to think about what happens if we don’t get either one.
by Madison Dan on Mar 16, 2010 10:43 AM CDT up reply actions
Ya
If we get Wall then Flynn gets shipped out immediately (as in draft night to a team that needs a good young point, runs a more Flynn friendly system, and sees shipping out a player or future first as compensation. Hell, target Atlanta and ask for a future first and the rights to Childress.) I think Sessions stays – he’s earned it.
Moving forward you plan on playing Wall and Rubio together. I think you see who can net you a better return in a trade, Love or Al, and go forward from there in addressing the need for a high scoring SF. I kinda think Al would fit better with Wall (after watching Cousins and Wall).
I also don’t think you’d be able to trade Wall for Turner unless you’re willing to accept not much in return (in other words, a mostly equals for equals swap, unless Indy gets the number 2 draft pick or the Nets slide down to #4-5.)
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 10:57 AM CDT up reply actions
My perfect trade scenario
is that we get the one and NJ the 2, then we just swap the first for the second and the utah pick for their early 20s pick (assuming this is contingent upon them taking Wall).
We want to run, we want to run the triangle. We have young, improving guys on the wing. Mark my words – in 2 years time this team’s identity and leadership will be from the perimeter and not from under the basket. The sooner the organization embraces that cultural shift/truth the better off we are. This summer marks, in my opinion, the transition away from Al’s team to ______’s team.
Ideally it’s Turner or Wall’s team, but what if we’re not in a position to draft one of those guys? It’s clear, to me anyway, that we don’t have the guy we need on the roster currently. If we’re picking 3rd or 4th we’ve still got to get that guy assuming that Turner/Wall don’t slip. That guy likely will be big man if we’re going BPA. So…if’s it’s Favors we draft him and hope for a Amare/Howard hybrid type. We’d obviously have to balance the roster with a trade, let’s say Al for Deng/filler. We’re now hoping this is Favor’s team, but it’s not a lock that this team will be a perimeter team if the BPA during this draft doesn’t fit that.
by Blond Ricky on Mar 16, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions
Perhaps
I kinda think that at this point, though, the team might roll the dice on Cousins instead. Paired with Rubio the big fella would roll! I know there’s attitude and maturity questions, but in terms of star potential and upside who else in the draft is there after Turner and Wall? If Cousins didn’t have those maturity/attitude questions he’d have a strong shot at going #1 (would you take an 90% Shaq over a taller Iverson? I think you could make an argument either way and win, and that’s my point).
Obviously you move Al for what you can then.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:00 AM CDT up reply actions
Cousins is good
Cousins has been insane for a frosh. The attitude scares me a lot though. Hopefully he could push Turner down to us if we don’t wind up 2nd.
by Blond Ricky on Mar 16, 2010 11:02 AM CDT up reply actions
I think I could get behind Cousins or Favors
if I had a stiff drink and found a bigger set of blinders. But what in the world happens if we get the fifth pick?
by Madison Dan on Mar 16, 2010 11:05 AM CDT up reply actions
56% chance
of mass suicide among TWolves fans.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
I interpreted it as a conditional probability
i.e., if we get the fifth pick (which has a 12.3% chance of happening), there’s a 56% chance of mass suicide. Seems low to me when you look at it that way.
by Madison Dan on Mar 16, 2010 11:10 AM CDT up reply actions
I was just going with
we have a 44% chance (I think) of getting the first or second pick. So that leaves 56% left over (btw – hat tip to whoever posted this first on another thread. Forgot to give them credit for it first).
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions
A little low.
By that measure, there’s a 61.3% chance of mass suicide.
by Madison Dan on Mar 16, 2010 11:18 AM CDT up reply actions
Ellington vs. Brewer
From what I understand, Brewer’s best D comes when he’s playing SG. Even then the stats don’t back him up as a great defender, or even good one for that matter. Not that defensive stats are perfect.
Ellington is definitely a SG. The stats suggest he’s a better defender too and he should be a decent shooter going forward.
Why is there a need for Brewer at all?
I think Brewer
if far more likely to become (and quickly) an outstanding defender when two things happen – he’s not playing next to bone headed defenders (Al, Hollins, and Flynn), and when he’s not required to have to lift so much of the offensive load. Of the two, putting defenders like Darko behind him and Turner/Rubio beside him and I think Brewer’s D will blow Ellington’s out of the water. We haven’t seen it this year because our talent level sucks, and because I think a bigger emphasis has been made for Brewer to make strides offensively than defensively.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
by biggity2bit on Mar 16, 2010 11:17 AM CDT up reply actions
Agree.
I think Brewer also tries to do too much on defense, and without help, his effort is exposed. Put average to good defenders around him, I think Brewer’s d is great. Ellington currently stays within himself on D, so a little better stats.
by Krotz the Wall on Mar 16, 2010 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
Ellington stays on his man while Brewer is trying to play free safety. If we had interior defenders that could protect the rim and guard the PnR then Brewer could just be stuck on someone and told “stop that guy and don’t worry about anyone else”.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 16, 2010 6:47 PM CDT up reply actions
I wish we'd do that already.
Expose the weak links for what they are defensively, eliminate them as so as we can. Corey has no long-term role on this team if he is not stopping one man per night, and I hate having to HOPE that he’s capable of locking down one figure instead of flying around the court.
Agreed
Let him continue to perfect his ability to be a lock-down defender. It’s not like his flying around the court is really helping the overall team defense.
by Cedarpenguin on Mar 17, 2010 9:16 AM CDT up reply actions
Brewer's defense effort vs. output is confusing
When you watch Brewer hustle through picks, chase down fast breaks to block the ball, and take charges, he definitely looks like an above average defender. His height and decent speed would seem to be huge assets.
However, his opponent often has a big game, and the defense stats do not look very good.
Given that NBA teams employ a lot of team defense, it is tough to know for sure. Is he doing the right things but Hollins/Jefferson are failing to rotate? Is Ellington aided by playing more minutes with Darko/Love?
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Mar 16, 2010 12:57 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes and yes
I think playing with Hollins, Al, and Flynn would make Bruce Bowen look like a terrible defender. Ellington plays within himself and plays (usually) with more adept defenders in Sessions, Darko (lately), and Love. I think Ellington is the type of player who will always play pretty sound defense, but he’ll never be All-NBA. Brewer, if he chooses, has that kind of potential.
In aggregrate Brewer’s first two seasons (in terms of minutes played) equal this season. Those two seasons the team was better defensively with him in (7 points better last year, 1.9 points better his rookie year). This year the team is 2.5 points worse on defense when he’s out there, but better on offense (the problem the previous two years).
Furthermore, according to bball-ref he’s maintained a positive defensive win share throughout his career, including a +1.4 DWS this year, second on the team to only Al Jefferson (which now has me suspicious of the stat).
Looking at his stats on 82games, though, and reading between the lines a little I think Brewer has been pretty solid on defense this year and his ratings are worse because of his cast. For example, the last two years the efg% allowed was lower when he was on the court instead of off. This year it’s higher. The percentage of fga’s assisted on the past two years when he was on the court was lower than when he was off. This year it’s higher. If you look at Flynn, Hollins, and Al’s numbers on these metrics I think you can see that Brewer is probably not the issue here. Then look at Darko’s numbers. Dude still has +7 +/- after 200 minutes with us, and our efg% allowed is 4.9% lower when he’s on the court versus when he’s off. Put him and Brewer together for a season and teach Jonny not to be a matador and Brewer will shine.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
El Matador!
Too bad the wolves don’t have red uni’s.
A Darko Fan since 2010!
by TheEvilProfessor on Mar 17, 2010 2:19 PM CDT up reply actions
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