What can be built upon?
by Stop-n-Pop on Mar 17, 2010 10:42 PM CDT
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PrintIt's pretty hard to find something good on this club to write about right now. They have the worst offense in team history, their 1/2 court defense is in shambles, their transition defense may be worse than their offense, they are starting two players (Darko Milicic and Ryan Gomes) who may not be with the team next year, Kevin Love is buried deep in the dog house, and even a few Corey Brewer poster dunks are fairly hard to get all that worked up over.
When things aren't going my way I find the best approach to turn things around is to first take stock of what is going right and then move forward by creating small increments where clear goals can be stated, approached, and achieved.
My question for this game-wrap/open-thread is two-fold: What is going right and what does the team need to do until the end of the year to have something to build upon?
Perhaps the Wolves need to take an approach borrowed from spring training baseball. Much like pitchers take a few innings to work on a specific pitch, maybe the Wolves need to take the remaining schedule to focus on a few key areas. They should have goals for limiting points on turnovers. They should be pulling players who don't engage in enthusiastic transition defense. How about throwing Jonny Flynn a bone by running more pick and rolls with Kevin Love? We're at the lowest point of the season right now and it's time for baby steps. It would be very nice for the club to designate some clear goals that can be worked for and met between now and the end of the season.
Last night against the Jazz the Wolves hardly put up a fight. They have played the Jazz tough all year and this figured to be one of their better chances of victory until the end of the month. They match up against the Jazz well in terms of size and they should have met this challenge with a robust effort from the opening tap.
Unfortunately, the entire affair was a flat one and they ended up once again giving up more than 120 points to an opponent.
What's really frustrating about the current losing binge is that if it were not for a 3 point victory against the Wade-less Heat, the Wolves would be on an 18-game streak in the wrong direction with games against the Lakers, Raptors, Bobcats, Magic, and Suns on the horizon. The remaining schedule does the Wolves no favors and if they want this thing to end on a positive note, they need to come up with some achievable goals (and effort) in a hurry.
Let's wrap this thing up with a few random game notes:
- The Wolves conceded (intentionally or not) the 15 foot jump shot to Jazz power forwards all night long. It was fairly amazing to see Paul Milsap and Carlos Boozer with 10 feet of open space at the free throw line on possession after possession.
- As mentioned above, the Wolves' transition defense is probably its worse trait right now. Against the Jazz it seemed like each and every single turnover resulted in an odd-man rush and a quick 2 points for the guys from Utah. I cannot remember seeing transition defense this poor on a professional basketball team. It really is embarrassing.
- On one such transition opportunity, Kyle Korver had an opportunity for an uncontested dunk. He approached the basket like he was going to throw one down but something went wrong on the runway and he meekly put up a layup several inches below the rim. He was smiling before he hit the ground and I imagine his poor dunk attempt will be the subject of much hilarity during the next few Jazz practices.
- Deron Williams had something of an off game for his standards (especially from the floor) but he still remains one of my favorite players to watch. The man is an absolute surgeon with the ball in his hands and I am hopeful that his Jazz gets a crack at the Lakers in the post-season.
- There is nothing good to be said about Kevin Love's play right now. Like it or not, he is being challenged by his coach to improve his effort on both ends of the court and he needs to answer that bell instead of sulking.
- Wayne Ellington is deserving of a start before the season is all said and done with. He is one of the few players on the squad who appears to be giving a full effort night-in/night-out. He also appears to be putting in a solid effort on the defensive end of the court. This would probably mean shifting Ryan Gomes to the bench and Brewer to the three, but it would be nice to see the man get a start or two in the near future.
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(ahem) . . . Uhh . . .
I thought the Wolves green . . . uhh . . . accents to their uniforms complemented the Jazz throwback outfits real nice . . .
I'm Not So Sure
Yep, we have a few more wins, but I wouldn’t want to face them right now. It could just add to the humiliation.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
In terms of the future, that's extremely debatable.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
It's this sort of relativism that makes for the best gallows humor.
Every Minnesota winter, there comes a time when I relish the chance to describe how cold we are to a friend somewhere warm. The way I like to do it is to tell them how much warmer we’d need to get in order to reach freezing. You call your friend and mention, casually:
If we gained 50 degrees, we would still be a little below freezing this morning.
Sure to get a reaction.
We’ve just had one of those moments, as Wolves fans. “Hey, we shaved 30 points off our last game’s defensive performance!…. Oh, a hunnert-and-twenty-two. No, really. Things are looking up.”
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
True Colors
True colors are shown when there is adversity and I think Kevin Love is showing his that he really is a baby.
Kevin’s muscle tone and build reminds me of a baby. He needs to hit the gym correctly. Is it really so hard to find multi million dollar athletes a proper diet and work out regiment. I am sorry family genes aside you can almost make anybody “cut” with the right program. I was under the impression he was a hard worker.
by Stay classy, Joe. on Mar 18, 2010 2:07 AM CDT up reply actions
One would think he’d take it seriously after getting stuffed for the thousandth time. I absolutely HATE getting my shot blocked – if I was stuffed that often, my ass would be in the gym all day every day working on my strength and explosiveness and doing everything possible to improve that part of my game.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Kevin Love
needs to get his ass in the gym, he actually looks slower, less explosive and in worse shape than Al who isn’t a great athlete to begin with but has had ACL surgery, and doesn’t quite have his legs under him.
Weird to think that OJ Mayo might be the more "professional" player
Everyone considered him a primadonna and Love a “little things” guy, but the opposite is playing out. I know part of it is the losing aspect, but Brewer/Ellington/Wilkins show that they hate to lose by playing like it.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Mar 18, 2010 6:55 PM CDT up reply actions
Yep. Too bad.
"It's not too far; it just seems like it is."
by WillistonCoyote on Mar 19, 2010 10:48 AM CDT up reply actions
Boozer
Is that a bandage, a bruise or does he have one wicked face tattoo?
i think it's the d-wade...
…band-aid thing.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
ugh...
one more year of rebuilding/sucking coming up.
Al Jefferson 4 ast?
That stood out looking at the box score. Was he finding open teammates who were finally hitting shots?
Big Al should've
got more time tonight, he needs to tighten up his D but the rest of these guys are just terrible on offense.
Also! Charlotte won tonight
and if the season were to end tomorrow (oh if that were true!), the Wolves would get their bonus pick, allowing them to add their shotblocking center in the middle of the round.
That pick is almost guaranteed now
Actually, it’s almost time to root for Charlotte to lose a couple
by Eric in Madison on Mar 18, 2010 7:11 AM CDT up reply actions
What do I want to see?
Rambis refusing to play guys that don’t play D. I’m seriously tired of watching guys not rotating, not closing out shooters, not fighting over screens, and not even getting their hands up. This shit is contagious…even Darko looked like he quit tonight because he knew no one had his back.
I don’t care if we have to go with a Gene Hackman in Hoosiers, playing with 4 guys, “my team is on the floor” moment…I can’t take watching this team give up a 48 minute layup drill anymore. And I especially can’t take a coach that tolerates it…
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Sometimes I think he's trying to do that.
Then I remember that Jefferson is a defensive calamity right now.
But I’m pretty sure even Rambis doesn’t believe Sasha Pavlovic is a shooter right now, so the only reason to justify his presence out there is to think he’s a reasonable defender.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
If he did that, they'd all be benched.
"It's not too far; it just seems like it is."
by WillistonCoyote on Mar 24, 2010 2:22 AM CDT up reply actions
There is not a lot to be excited about on this team and I, for one, will happily welcome a large turnover of the roster this summer. I still have some faith in Kahn despite the Flynn/Curry mistake. Getting Ellington at 28 was a steal and most of his trades have worked out in our favor. We have a lot of assets and I think Kahn will maximize them. Furthermore, he seems willing to deal anyone, which is how it should be on a team that is 14-55.
At least the Nets have Brook Lopez..
+1
I don’t think the Wolves will move both Love and Jefferson this summer because I think neither is a “selling high” situation. But if the Wolves could trade both for lottery picks/young talent, I think they would.
I’m afraid I cannot see a single current Wolf fitting in well as a starter into the long/tall/athletic/running vision that Kahn/Rambis have for this team.
Flynn, Jefferson, and Love are all good players but don’t fit this system very well. None are good defenders.
Brewer and Ellington could be decent bench guys. Rubio could stay in Spain until 2011, or 2012, or forever. Darko will most likely leave.
Wolves need a different system or major roster turnover.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Mar 18, 2010 1:39 AM CDT up reply actions
“Flynn, Jefferson, and Love are all good players but don’t fit this system very well. None are good defenders. Brewer and Ellington could be decent bench guys…”
I’ve been thinking this same thing and that is what is depressing. The four players that may be on this team long term (Love, Corey, Flynn and Ellington) are role players/bench guys. To not have one player who has the potential to be a bonafide star to carry this team is a real problem.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Mar 18, 2010 10:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Next to a good 5 period. If you put Love next to a defensive role player, you’re not getting much offense out of your front court aside from junk points and the occasional Love 3. He needs to be next to a long, athletic 2-way center. Unfortunately those guys are kind of rare.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I hope that is true, but ...
what type of player can Love guard period? He is not fleet afoot enough to cover perimeter fours like Rashard Lewis, Dirk Nowitski, etc. He is not tall enough to bother big fives in the paint like Oden, Bynum, Howard, etc.
So regardless of who he is paired with, Love is going to have to guard someone. What sort of player would that be? Another shortish, strongish big that likes to play close to the basket. Boozer?
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Mar 18, 2010 11:29 AM CDT up reply actions
Exactly
He is a major defensive liability, just like Jefferson. The guy has zero lift and poor lateral foot speed. These guys will never work together because both need to be totally hidden on defense.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 18, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
This is why Love
needs to add ten pounds of muscle while losing about five pounds overall. The strength help against the big guys inside. He’ll still get burned by perimeter 4s, but not as often which would make a huge difference.
Boozer would
Easily own Love, who isn’t much of a scorer making it a mismatch in Boozer’s favor. Al when healthy can make up for some of his defensive flaws, Love can’t.
I disagree
Love is an ok shooter, a good passer and a great rebounder. He definitely has the skills to make up for his defensive shortcomings. A combination of being in the wrong system with the wrong teammates and a lack of effort is what is keeping him from doing so.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 19, 2010 2:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Brewer
He is probably the one guy that best fits the vision – long, athletic, defends, moves without the ball, pushes the pace, willing to find the open man and make quick decisions. The problem is just what you said – he’s a bench player. So the guy on our roster that best fits the vision is a 6th or 7th man. Wonderful.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 18, 2010 11:48 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not bitter, I'm not cynical, the glass is filling....
but the conspicuous trade that’s worked in the Wolves’ favor was for the Rubio pick. Aside from those, most of what Kahn did last summer was clear brush from the roster.
(Cardinal for Darko, I guess, was a talent plus in the extreme short term.)
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
but I think clearing the brush is valuable.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Mar 18, 2010 10:09 AM CDT up reply actions
It is.
We used to have a President who spent huge amounts of time engaged in it.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Hmmmmm . . .
you bring up a good point for both this team and our current President.
To the chainsaws!
in an attempt to stay positive
i see a couple of things:
1) Corey Brewer. I like that fact that he has put in some work, and it looks like it is starting to pay off. Hopefully he can continue to make significant improvements.
2) Wayne Ellington. He’s not a starter, but every team needs some quality off the bench. I sincerely hope they hang on to him! He is solid!
3) Darko. I know. I know. This has been beat to death. However, it just happened to work out that wolves fans could get a glimpse of what might be possible with a legitimate center…which the team has never had…unless you count Luc Longley, which I don’t.
4) Big Al’s health. For all his flaws, I’m happy he seems to be recovering successfully from major knee reconstruction.
5) Jonny. He has decent athleticism and he now has one year of experience under his belt. Hopefully he now understands what it takes to be a…lets start with consistent starting PG in this league. In an effort to stay positive, that’s all I’m going to say.
6) Draft picks. Hopefully Charlotte continues their run and we end up with their pick. Three first round draft picks are great for filling out rosters, as well as salary control!
7) Pavlovic and Pecherov’s contracts will expire at the end of this season.
That’s about it at this stage. On to the draft, possible trades, and free agency. I wonder if there is a feasible way to get Evan Turner, Wes Johnson, and Cole Aldrich in the draft. Hmmm….
Sorry...
But I have made it my mission to mock anybody that mentions Jonny Flynn’s “athleticism.” He’s a 5’10" NBA midget that has no idea how to play PG. All the athleticism in the world means nothing in his case. The sooner our fans figure that out…the better.
All of your other points are excellent, BTW. An Evan Turner/Cole Aldrich draft would be fantastic. Wes Johnson…not so much…a one-dimensional spot up shooter that doesn’t play D…no thanks.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Sorry
disagree. Jonny’s athleticism would be downright killer in different system. That’s the truth, in my opinion.
And can we stop with the ‘midget’ stuff already? First off, he’s not 5’-10". Get your facts right. Second, 6’ PGs with good athleticism in systems tailored to their strengths have done very well – off the top of my head…CP3, Terrell Brandon, Tim Hardaway, Allen Iverson, Kenny Anderson, Mark Price, and oh, a guy named John Stockton (well, he’s 6’-1", so I guess that amazing inch makes the difference between all-world and all-nothing).
I get it – you don’t like Flynn and wish we had Curry. Please just say that instead of pawning off incorrect information as ‘fact.’ Seems to happening much more frequently around here when people want to denigrate Jonny.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
Draft Express says he's 6'...
Oh, I stand corrected because no one’s height is ever misstated on their bio. Look, I’m not going to quibble over an inch or two. The point of the post was that the guy is too small, and doesn’t know how to adjust his game to account for it.. How many dribble-drive airballs/blocks do you need to see?
Interesting list that you came up with as comps. I would say Jonny has nothing in common with any of them, other than being undersized. CP3 and AI knew how to use their athleticism to create space and get their shot off in traffic. The rest were extremely crafty guys that had subpar athleticism but knew how to play. Jonny is neither.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
(DX uses the pre-draft combine numbers)
Not that the larger point of his being a short point is in any way overturned by that.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Umm,
so, what—he grew between the pre-draft combine and now?
If so, the Wolves should immediately lock him into a long-term max contract, because at just an inch a year during adulthood, he’ll be 6’10" by the time he’s 30.
The numbers on the site:
Combine: 5’11.25"
On their profile page: 6’0"
I’m just sayin’, the profile page isn’t the usual completely fudge-able number. It’s not like good ol’ 6-foot-fourteen Kevin Garnett.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
check out 82gams.com. they have stats on % of shots blocked from different points on
the floor. flynn actually strikes me as rather good at not getting his shot blocked, especially for his size. his inside and close shots are only blocked 14% of the time. compare that to danny grangers 13% or steph currys 17% or carmelos 12%. it also strikes me that he finishes pretty well for a 6’0’’ rookie. his .55 eFG on close shots is pretty good. compare that to iverson, who didnt have a year where he finished that well around the rim until he was 29.
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
i forgot to mention lawsons 18% too.
and im not saying flynn is comparable to those players in terms of what he brings to the table generally, but he does quite well forhimself as a finisher considering his size and the fact that the wolves have arguably the worst spacing in the nba. (i actually think that honor goes to the bulls, but i could be biased since thats unfortunately the team i watch most).
"Oooohhh, cat in the wall, eh? Now you're talkin' my language."
I'm starting to come around to this view a little bit
I’m a Flynn critic, but I’ve been increasingly impressed with his ability to take it left, which earlier in the season seemed to be a huge problem. The problem with the triangle is that you almost always have two bigs parked somewhere between the high and low post. There is absolutely no space in the paint. What a lot of these other teams do is play a spread offense, with one big parked out on the perimeter and another big brought out to do high screen and roll with the PG. That opens up a ton of space in the middle for a quick PG to get to the hoop. Our dual-post triangle system just doesn’t leave any open space for a guy like Flynn to consistently use his quickness in getting to the hoop.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 18, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
I agree that the Triangle is bad for Jonny...
But it’s not like that’s we all we run. We run plenty of PnR for him too, and he flat out stinks at it. Let’s break down a typical Jonny PnR.
1 – Jonny dribbles ball into ground for 5 seconds
2 – Darko/Love/Hollins sets high screen
3 – Jonny dribbles over said screen
4 – Jonny pounds ball into ground for 5 more seconds while defense switches back
Watch for this on Friday. He literally does nothing to attack the defense on the PnR. What is killing Jonny Flynn is not the Triangle…it is Jonny Flynn.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
We run PnR
in the context of the triangle. It usually happens after the post hands the ball off to Jonny and the drive is cut-off. At that point the post will step out for screen and roll. I actually think Brewer runs this about as well as anyone on the squad. The problem is still that there isn’t a lot of space in the paint to operate. This is different than having a big come all the way out to the top of the circle with everyone else spread around the perimeter. That opens up the entire painted area.
I agree though that Flynn F’s-up PnR a lot. He absolutely needs to improve his decisiveness. I’ve just become increasingly convinced that he’d have a better chance for success if we spread things out more.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 18, 2010 12:30 PM CDT up reply actions
To defend the players for a moment, they are not stupid. We have all commented on Rambis's "stupid rotations", possible/probably being a form of tanking!
Players like Love can see this also. So if you know your coach wants to eventually lose, it is easy not to be motivated, especially when its your playing time being yanked around. Not only is the coach not trying to win, but he is embarrassing you to the whole NBA, and not giving you the playing time to improve.
In fact it takes great maturity to be motivated! You have to focus on individual development of skills and working plays with teammates.
Jefferson, who has been down this road before, seems to be able to do this somewhat better than some of his younger teammates.
All in all, Rambis has NOT DONE a good job, of keeping young players focused on improvement even while trying to stay in the “2 slot” in the draft. He should have been open and honest with them and given them clear playing time.
My impression and its only an impression, is that he has been “playing mind games” like his mentor Jackson, which is absolutely the wrong approach to take with a bunch of very smart players like Love. You can be a Zen savant, with mature players who know who they are and what they can do, but need to learn to play as part of a team, like Jordan, Shaq, Kobe etc. But young players don’t know who they are yet. Openness and honesty was what was necessary.
Love and others definitely didn’t get that memo as we can see each game.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Mar 18, 2010 4:33 AM CDT reply actions
“When things aren’t going my way I find the best approach to turn things around is to first take stock of what is going right and then move forward by creating small increments where clear goals can be stated, approached, and achieved. "
Funny that you mention this, I learned this in psychology in my study I have to do for being a teacher .. nice.
I got some of the same things nodnarb mentions
Corey Brewer’s progress. His confidence is finally starting to grow.
We (still) got some very nice complementary players.
It’s too early to judge Jonny, he didn’t spend a lot of time in college and thus he’ll be judged around february next year…
We could have as much as 4 good point guards soon. Wall, Rubio, Flynn and Sessions and could pick out the 2-3 of our choice. It’s been a long time since we’ve had this kind of wealth at the point guard (remember when we were discussing if we would maybe add Blake Ahearn?)
I’m unsure about the current market for Jefferson. The market could be higher than what we’d expect. He’s still regarded as a player with unique skill (which is true). A team that already has a good defense in place could expect him to finally get his defense to a decent level (because coming into a working defensive machine is better to fix your personal defense than stumbling with others who don’t know how to defend either).
SO there’s options with Jefferson, his contract isn’t humongous.
Caproom: if anyone can convince a big free agent to come over it’s Kahn. (which is why we should be WINNING right now).
Love is still a good player, maybe he’s sucking right now but he is who he is. It’s not IF but WHEN he’ll return to form.
All our players are already convinced there are no leprechauns in the house so we don’t have to get up in the middle of the night to convince them otherwise (insider joke, don’t bother ;))
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
So the small increments would be:
Love returning to previous form
Jefferson stock going up
Not moving down in the draft
Getting the Charlotte pick
Hearing that money talks more than weather from some players
Hearing Darko say he appreciates the way the T-wolves treated him
Noticing Brewer not fumbling but powering dunks some more
Any improvement from Jonny
Official Kahn/Rambis band-wagon rider since 2009
by Wim (Belgium) on Mar 18, 2010 6:50 AM CDT up reply actions
The Bright Spots
1. Brewer — easily the #1 positive to the season. He’s an actual player.
2. The Draft picks — We have to hope they don’t screw this up, too, and catch GSW. Not too worried about this.
3. The Rubio/Peckovic chips.
The offseason couldn’t be more critical — hope for a turnaround vs. no faith in GM to turn this around. The only players I want to see back are Brewer, Ellington, Love, Darko (long shot). The common thread — they all are/could be useful two-way players. Rambis has to be on the hot seat next year. Sorry, you need to adapt the system to what you have. Good Luck Kahn!
Catch GSW?
Do you really think there are 4 wins left in this club? I think it’s possible they can get to 67 losses and catch Jimmy Rodgers. The number 2 slot is SAFE.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
Excuse me, 5 wins.
No way that the Wolves win 19 games this year. Not happening. But, we all know that.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
culture
I know Kahn has spoken of insituting a culture that makes it attractive for players to come here – hence the handling of Darko with kid gloves and the waiving of Blount. But a culture of winning, or at least trying to win, is also important. I understand this year was “all about player development”, but learning to win games is also part of player development.
Draft picks aren’t everything. As much as I like the potential of guys like Wall, Turner, Cousins, etc I don’t see anyone in the draft who will be able to come in and make this a playoff team immediately. Gelling as a team and developing a style of play that complements players’ strengths in different areas is more important than raw talent.
PLAYOFFS!!
The thinking has been that this is a “long-term” build and that we will not make the playoffs next year (unless Lebron and Wade come here), but we are building a base for the future. I will readily admit that this team is worse than I thought they’d be, but we were hoping for a top two slot and now we are pretty locked in, as long as the ping pong balls bounce right (#1 please!?!). We have seen what we have, what needs there are and we focus on fixing those. Yes, there are an overwhelming number of problems, but lets focus on one thing at a time and things will turn around before we know it. So maybe not before we know it, but I don’t think it will be five years.
Cheer up, we could be Nets fans. . . and yes, I’m glad we don’t play them any more this year.
Timberwolves - NBA champs 2013!
(used with permission - Wolf in MO)
by frankenhoops on Mar 18, 2010 9:02 AM CDT up reply actions
We could be Nets fans
and see two max free agent types, or a max guy and two middle-class young vets.
What’s really depressing about being a Nets fan would be the move of the team. In two, three years, that roster will not be dead in the water and starting over again. I’m not always sure here.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
"But a culture of winning, or at least trying to win, is also important"
Yes.
I, too, am not afraid of the Wolves tanking their way to a top pick. But I don’t see how, assuming they’re going to try to win next year, they’re all of the sudden going to turn it around and say, “Okay, LET’S GO!” just like that. The resentment Love seems to be experiencing (it could be self-induced for all Iwe know) isn’t going to go away.
this season = throwaway
there is going to be tons of turnover on this roster before next season. hopefully this turnover increases the number of players the organization considers “core”. right now there’s a ton of dead wood on this roster, and hopefully through more “brush clearing” (to quote Feral above) they can assemble a group of players who can play major minutes every night, compete every night, and improve. no, they won’t be a playoff team next year, or even the year after, but I feel like some fans have this all or nothing attitude where it’s either tank for the #1 pick or compete for a title. to me, the most appealing aspect of the next few years will be seeing how this team (however it’s constituted) continues to grow & improve. we saw little of that this year, which is frustrating, but at the same time I wouldn’t expect a lot of team development given how unlikely it is that most of these players will be around in 2 years.
Next year has to be about competing, even if they don’t make the playoffs. Enough with this tinkering with rotations and playing head games with core players. Trying to win every night is enough for me – I don’t expect miracles just effort from both players & coaches.
I’m hoping that Kahn still considers this team massively incomplete and is waiting until he can:
1) resolve the Al/Love dilemma.
2) add some real talent
before worrying too much about creating an identity. Right now, the core just isn’t there for a winning team. Move one of Al/Love for either young prospects or a player that fits us better, pick up another top and mid-teens pick next year and possibly do something with the cap space and all of the sudden this team could (and I stress could) be rife with talent.
I’m really just hoping Kahn is biding his team and will give us all something to be excited about for next year. In the meantime, the suspense is killer. The on court product is terrible and this season is already in the tank, so all we have to look forward to is the offseason and what could be. However, while we know he has the assets to make this all happen, we know essentially nothing about his ability to evaluate talent, so it’s all up in the air.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
"there is going to be tons of turnover on this roster before next season"
I agree this season is a throwaway. However, in light of Just A Fan’s comments yesterday, even if Kahn wants to perform the “brush clearing”, how might he do that without spending more money than they want to? The complete inactivity at the trading deadline I think was a clue to part of the problem with getting new, better players than the ones they currently have:
1. They’re not willing to overpay other teams’ signing mistakes (i.e., like a Kevin Martin kind of player)
2. They’re not smart enough to outwit other teams’ front offices to steal a player away in a trade
3. There are few free agents who want to come to Minnesota, even if the Wolves are willing to overpay (which they aren’t)
4. The current players (other than maybe Love or Sessions) aren’t coveted by the rest of the league, or at least not at their current health and salary (Al Jeff).
So if they can’t outsmart and won’t outbid, how are they supposed to find the supposedly better players?
This
I will say: the one way they could really turn the roster over without spending more is if they choose (and are able) to just dump Jefferson for nothing to a team with cap space that misses out on the top free agents.
I’m not advocating it by any means, but Jefferson is their one long term big money commitment. It would allow them to bring in a couple of Travis Outlaw level players, perhaps, either in FA or in trade with what would then be a large amount of cap space without letting their payroll get up to the cap.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 18, 2010 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
I really hope it's Jefferson
If it’s Love, then I’ll lose all hope for Kahn. Jefferson clearly will never play defense and because he is the “leader” all others feed off his play. How do you think players feel when Al “Team Leader” Jeff gives his guy an easy lay-up or refuses to play help D? He needs to go to a team where he’s not the leader and someone older tells him what to do.
agreed but
and I’m repeating myself here, again…
Suppose the wolves feel about K. Love the way College Wolf and roundhouse (among may sensible others) feel about K. Love: destined to be at best a bench player who brings energy and rebounding. Suppose some other teams feel the way about love that SNP or Jose Cordoba feel, a key starting cog on a championship contender whose passing, rebounding, shooting, etc. make his teammates and his team much better.
to pick a silly example: I would bet that IF THEY PLAYED on different teams and made similar salaries
CW and roundhouse would trade K Love for Al
SNP and Jose would trade Al for K Love.
both sides would think they are getting a steal and improving their teams. That’s the recipe for trades.
I’m convinced/worried that POBO and Rambis are in the CW/roundhouse camp. This either
a) confirms the astute observations of CW and roundhouse
OR
b) scares the sh*t out of the statheads.
The elephant in the room, however, is $$$$$$ (as PD points out).
Even if the wolves value Jefferson much more than Love they may trade Jefferson to save money and pick up assets.
Yet if they overvalue Jefferson relative the rest of the league, they will never receive “fair value” in a trade. If they undervalue Love relative to the rest of the league they will easily receive “fair value” in a Love trade.
by littleboxes on Mar 18, 2010 11:33 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm not too worried about Kahn
undervaluing his own guys. He seems extremely patient and worried about talent acquisition. The bigger risk (to me) is in overvaluing guys on other teams (i.e. Hollins).
I do think Love causes interesting arguments when consulting stats vs. your eyes. You watch him play and move, and he is quite underwhelming. You check out his stats, and he is an elite rebounder helping his team win quite a bit (excluding his current malaise).
I would guess the truth is somewhere in between.
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Mar 18, 2010 11:37 AM CDT up reply actions
I'm worried about both
undervaluing/overvaluing own guys and overvaluing/undervaluing other teams’ guys. I guess I’m worried about Kahn’s talent evaluation.
See Hollins, Ryan and Flynn, Jonny.
Suppose the Wolves get the third pick in the draft. Nets get #1.
Nets take Wall. Wolves take Favors.
Nets offer Courtney Lee and Terrence Williams for Kevin Love.
Nets get a real deal PF to play next to Lopez. Kahn gets a 6-5 shooting guard and an athletic small forward.
PER says this trade SUCKS for wolves. but some people believe Love’s 21+PER is garbage. Maybe Kahn is one of those people.
I hate this trade. But I think it’s becoming likely. If Kahn viewed Lee and Williams and cheap young talent at positions of need and he views Love as redundant bench player, why not do the deal?
by littleboxes on Mar 18, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
Trades like this would be hard to swallow as you (1) Don’t trade big for small and (2) don’t trade quality for quantity. I hope Kahn doesn’t make moves like this.
You could argue insanity
But it’s not obvious that Courtney Lee and Terrance Williams don’t offer the Wolves less redundancy and just as much talent as K Love.
Suppose it was just courtney lee. He’s a 6-5 shooting guard who played in the NBA finals and has scored 20 points in a game more than a few times.
I have no idea how Kahn makes his decision.
But, if he thinks love is a sixth man at a position of strength (PF with Big AL) why not trade him for a possible starter at a position of need?
Look, I don’t make this trade. Ever. But that does not mean that Kahn would not make this TYPE of trade.
Love for athleticism and length on the wings. Wolves take a flyer on two young and cheap wings and create a more balanced roster.
Let me clarify
I want whoever is traded between Love and Jefferson to be linked to an All-Star. Perhaps or current player, or a high draft choice. Basically trade one of these guys are a couple of the other assets into that All-Star…it may take a couple different deals, which is why I say package them for a better player, then hopefully package the new player for the All-Star. Could also be done in one 3-team deal. This team needs star power, I don’t like the idea of moving Love or Jefferson without getting that in return.
I don’t disagree with your concept, but with all the assets they have I think the type of players you mention can be had in another way, or won’t be needed if the All-Star is acquired.
good points but CW and myself both have stated that we would rather trade AL than Love
because Love fits the team better than AL does.
Al would be awesome on a team like Miami where they have a clear superstar or even a team like Charlotte where their other players are all good defenders. He just doesn’t fit our team.
At this point, I actually would prefer to trade both AL & Love. Keep Rubio, draft either Wall/Turner and then 3-way trade AL & Love + whatever to pick up either the #3 or #4 pick to get Favors/Cousins + whatever else we can get in the trade.
No not at all. I do view his upside as a 6th man of the year candidate type player
I just think he creates too many mismatches in the other team’s favor that they can exploit when he is in the starting lineup.
And yea, I would take AL for Love straight up.
So you’re pretty much spot on.
Good post.
Love is an 6th man type player. No problem with that. He’s not the key cog on a contender, that some people think around here.
I’d rather trade Al because his defense sucks balls and he gets paid a ton (compared to Love.) Love fits this team better and is much cheaper.
With that said, I have NO PROBLEM trading them both (or anyone on this team, to be honest.)
Can you imagine:
Rubio
Turner (our draft choice)
Brewer or whomever. (Bigtime FA?)
Love or Favors
Pekovic or Cousins
6th man: Love or Favors
We get Favors or Cousins from trading Al for another high pick.
That’s a team I could get behind.
by College Wolf on Mar 18, 2010 4:16 PM CDT up reply actions
I don’t think we can get another top 5 pick in this draft, unless maybe a team is sitting at 4 with Cousins and Wes Johnson on the board and doesn’t want to draft either one of them. I suppose we could trade Al Jefferson for Cousins in that case. We’d have to take on a bad contract in return though, and Cousins has a lot of the same problems that Al Jefferson has. Cousins would be taller, younger, and angrier, but he’d still probably suck on defense, be mediocre at passing out of the post, and take bad shots.
by oblivionspocket on Mar 18, 2010 8:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Love
would also bring a top-5 pick. He’s proven to at worst a 30 MPG 6th man. The 4th or 5th pick in a lot of drafts can be disappointing. A team like Utah might take the sure thing, knowing it improves an already solid team.
Depending on what they do with Mislap and Boozer
Love might be very redundant for them.
by oblivionspocket on Mar 19, 2010 12:39 AM CDT up reply actions
True But....
Boozer is also a lot better than Love.
No doubt
But Boozer is one of those 2nd or 3rd tier FAs who will likely get overpaid this summer. Not sure Utah is in a position where they can overpay Boozer, then sign a top-5 pick as well.
True but....
They could always trade Milsap if they don’t think he will be as effective as Boozer besides teams that wanna contend have to pay to play.
But it's the same question the Wolves have
with Love and Jefferson. Is Boozer worth another $10 mil or so per season on a long term deal?
Neither Love nor Jefferson is being traded in my view, at least as things stand now. Evidence? Neither is being showcased to end the season.
Quite the contrary. Both are being “developed” by Rambis rather than showcased. Don’t agree with Rambis’s approach but thats the intention in my view.
so unless Kahn is “blown away” by an offer, I’d expect both Love and jefferson to be here as the season starts next fall.
Then we can get a “real preview” – non-tanking.
1) Jefferson when relatively healthy and having had the summer to get in great shape and pick up some new skills.
2) Love gets consistent playing time, without tanking considerations.
3) Flynn gets to see some pick and roll offense
4) We’ll see how Love/Jefferson and others play when they have more talent surrounding them – a top 5 draft pick and a top free agent
5) if we get 3 draft picks…. ours, Charlotte and Utah, I sure hope Rubio finds a way to come over also….so all can learn together…
6) Pekovic probably traded…..
Will be an interesting summer and fall.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Mar 18, 2010 11:49 AM CDT up reply actions
KLJ
You might be correct. But isn’t the simplest, most obvious explanation for Love’s lack of PT that he’s not part of the future rather that he IS part of the future?
Sure, maybe Kurt Rambis is complex guy and we don’t understand what is going on behind the scenes. So this leads to speculation, like yours and mine, about what’s actually going on.
I think my explanation, although it could be wrong, is the simplest most direct explanation for Love’s lack of burn.
by littleboxes on Mar 18, 2010 11:55 AM CDT up reply actions
That doesn’t make sense, though. IF they don’t think he’s part of the future, why sit him and let him get pouty to the media instead of giving him 36 mpg to pad his stats and increase his trade value?
I hope it’s something mysterious going on behind the scenes, like some Zen master stuff. If it really is because they don’t see him as part of the future, then it’s just stupid.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
You don’t play him 36 minutes because his PER is already sky high, and with his limited minutes teams that acquire him could say, if only Love played more minutes the timberwolves would be better. If love played 36 minutes and the team still lost by 20, you’d give other team more evidence than Kevin Love doesn’t help you win. You don’t play Kevin Love 36 minutes for the same reason some players skip workouts, you make the decision makers guess what his value is rather than showing them.
As of today here is what we know about Kevin Love’s impact on the team this season.
1. This team sucked the first 20 games when love didn’t play
2. The team got much better when Love returned and started being competitive
3. Love puts up a Top 12 PER in the entire league
4. Love gets hurt and in Rambis’ doghouse and the team subsequently goes 2-30 to close out the season.
I don’t think not playing severely affects his trade value.
I imagine that most GMs who would trade with us are aware that the Wolves are so bad that no matter how many minutes Love plays, we’re still losing a ton of games. I don’t have any stats in front of me, but weren’t we much more competitive when he was playing 30+?
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I don’t have any stats in front of me, but weren’t we much more competitive when he was playing 30+?
That’s exactly my point, we were much more competitive when he was playing 36 minutes. So now that he’s not playing 36 minutes and team isn’t competitive that correlation is established. By not playing him 36 minutes the rest of the season, you aren’t giving teams a chance to change that opinion, which is a good thing if you plan on trading him, IMO.
Sorry – my comment didn’t make much sense when I fully read yours. I’m pretty scatterbrained when posting at work.
I guess that makes sense, but if they really want to trade him it seems to me that the bigger his body of work, the better. If they are really holding out to move him, they run the risk of his attitude turning sour and having to explain away why he’s playing so few minutes despite being on a terrible team.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Even without spending money
there will be significant turnover. They will bring in 3 draft picks (I predict 2 first rounders and a 2nd rounder, probably trade the Utah pick to move up with the Charlotte pick). Either Jefferson or Love gets moved. If they get Wall either Flynn or Sessions is moved.
Just saying, I think only about six guys return (Brewer and Ellington likely…they are guys who I think will revert to “LET’S GO” mode easily this summer).
The Good...
First off, I know people are disappointed with Johnny Flynn thus far… but remember… this is the first year Brewer has looked like he is starting to achieve his potential… so there is definitely time for him to turn a corner.
Other positives that I can think of:
We have to power forwards in Love/Jefferson that have some trade value…
3 draft picks next year Including what will likely be the 2nd overall.
European Assets
Cap Space
Expirings (See you later Pavs)
As far as on court positives… All I can say is Corey Brewer… the rest is something truly god awful right now. For a team that wants to be a fastbreak team… they sure to run it & defend it atrociously. If this is the style we want to play… we need quite the overhaul.
No the 2nd pick is not most likely
The most likely pick tor the Wolves is 4th (31.9% chance). There is a 61% chance that the Wolves land 3rd, 4th, or 5th. They have a 19.9% chance to end up first and 18.8% chance to end up 2nd.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
this is why the lottery is messed up
I’m convinced that the NBA has absolutely no idea that their lottery system produces the counterintuitive result that the team with the second best record has a higher probability of getting the fourth pick than the second pick or even the third pick.
It’s way too likely for the top 3 teams to move up. Intuitively this is because although its a rare event for any single team outside of the top 3 to move up, it’s actually highly likely that at least one team not in the top 3 ends up in the top 3.
All the teams in the top 3 (or four, or five or six) are more likely to move down than to at least say where they are.
by littleboxes on Mar 18, 2010 11:41 AM CDT up reply actions
thats why the lottery was set up... so teams wouldn't tank to get a pick because it was likely teams would move up...
But its only happened a few times that 3 teams moved up. Usually its 1 team, sometimes 2.
But we are in a better position to get a top 2 pick than any team after us.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Mar 18, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions
yes
but this is not the ONLY way to discourage tanking. I don’t think the NBA realizes the distinction between
A) which single team is the most likely to get the second pick
and
B) the probability the team with the second best record gets a worse than second pick.
by littleboxes on Mar 18, 2010 11:59 AM CDT up reply actions
no team after us has a better chance at getting 2nd than we do....
see the playoff odds here
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery — see the “box”.
by Kevin Love Jefferson on Mar 18, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
agreed
but, as I write below, if I had to put money on which pick the Wolves would get I would not put money on the 2nd pick.
on the other hand, if had to put money on which team would get the second pick, I would bet on the wolves.
a mind bender!
I would bet on NJ getting the second pick
if that’s all we were betting on. They have a slightly higher chance of getting it.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 19, 2010 2:19 AM CDT up reply actions
From a pure numbers standpoint, you are right, however...
Based on your approach to the situation, no one is likely to get the 1st pick as even the Nets have a greater chance of NOT getting it than they do.
Relative to the odds of the other teams is the way to look at it, which means the 2nd pick is the most likely for us.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
by mutleyil on Mar 18, 2010 11:52 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Let's just say
that if I was risk-neutral, and I had to bet on the pick I thought the Wolves would get, I would not bet on the wolves getting the second pick.
if I was forced to bet on which team would get the second pick, I would bet on wolves.
But these are separate questions.
by littleboxes on Mar 18, 2010 11:57 AM CDT up reply actions
Well put...
It’s a choice of looking at the data discretely or continuously. If you choose discrete, our chances of falling are high. If you look at it continuously relative to the other lottery teams chances, our chances of getting a top 2 pick are approximately 20% better than the next worst team.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
The Team With the Best Chance to Get the 2nd Pick
Is New Jersey, so if I were forced to bet on who gets the second pick I’d take them.
Pining for a Troy Hudson/Marko Jaric backcourt.
Technically...
NJ has the best chance at getting any of picks 1-4. If you had to choose only one though, would you pick #2? No, you would pick #1.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
I think you got it backwards this time :)
If you had to guess who got #1, NJ would be your choice. If you had to guess which pick NJ got, #2 would likely be your choice.
Like Littleboxes said above.
No,
If you had to choose which pick NJ gets, you’d choose 4th!
They have the best chance of getting the 4th pick, and it’s the most likely pick for them.
Now, if you had to bet on a draft ORDER, meaning you have to choose a spot for EVERYONE, then you’d pick NJ first, Min second, etc.
If you’re just betting on one team, then you’d bet on getting the 4th pick for either NJ or Min.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Mar 19, 2010 2:22 AM CDT up reply actions
In response to starting Ellington and moving Brewer to the 3
Why not just start Ellington at PG? He’s a perfect PG fit in the triangle. He has way above average handles and apparently better passing than Flynn. The only reason I can find not to start him at PG is because Sessions probably deserves a start there as well. If only we hadn’t wasted the season letting Jonny get that burn.
For the Love/Jefferson thing: I never thought I would say this, but why not trade both of them for good deals (hopefully one to move the Charlotte pick up to 3-6ish) and try to get Turner, preferably Cousins/Favors with the traded pick, and offer David Lee a nice contract the second FA starts so NY won’t have tested all of it’s possibilities before the week period is up. I still think that Love has a higher upside than Lee, but Love could also net us Favors. And Lee + Favors > Love. Especially if Rubio comes over, Favors would be a nearly perfect compliment for his game. Then we run with a lineup next year of:
Sessions/Flynn (or trade Flynn and start Ellington here!)
Turner/Ellington/Brewer
Brewer/Turner/FA/Utah Pick (Gomes?)
Favors/Pekovic/Lee
Lee/Pekovic/Favors
We don’t have a true center, but Lee has had plenty of experience at the C in NY. Our defense looks immediately better. Our potential looks a lot better. We really only traded Love and Jefferson is still going to bring something back. Somehow I really think we have to take advantage of the David Lee situation. Worst case scenario you trade Love or Jefferson to move up to get Favors and then worry about trading the other once David Lee is signed.
I don’t think he has way above average handles at all. I like Wayne, but dribbling anywhere but on wide open breaks seems to be a big area of weakness for him. There was a time in the Phoenix game where he had Louis Amundson switched on to him at the 3pt line with a wide open baseline and he didn’t even try to make a move past him. Any guard with a halfway decent handle would have blown past him before he had his feet set, instead Wayne sat in one spot and did a crossover then swung it around the arc.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
I'd be more inclined to think
that this particular example has to do with his first step. He probably isn’t fast enough (and Amundson is a decent defender and good hustle player) to beat most players, let alone one who has a good half a foot or more (not checking) on him after height and wingspan is all taken into account.
I guess it depends what you are taking the average of. I’d say out of SGs and SFs, he has above average handles. Not that he will impress anyone with killer crossovers, but he stays in control the whole time and doesn’t play above his ability. IMO, he has more than enough ability to take care of the PG duties in the Triangle… perhaps better than Flynn or Sessions could (shooting is one of the biggest needs for a PG in the triangle).
He could maybe do it if we actually had other players capable of handling the ball, like Turner. Not that we have anything to lose by dicking around at this point, but Wayne’s handle has just never impressed me. It’s more that he’s smart enough to know when not to overstep his boundaries, i.e. a poor dribble game.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
The image
the Twolves have created for themselves as an NBA team is that of a crackhead rolling dice in an alleyway to score one more hit. “C’mon man. I’ll suck your dick.”
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Mar 18, 2010 12:16 PM CDT reply actions
I’m guessing you haven’t seen “Menace II Society”
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Mar 18, 2010 12:20 PM CDT reply actions
I have, actually. I got the reference.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 18, 2010 12:20 PM CDT up reply actions
So I guess my positive spin on the Wolves and their lack of "playing to win the game"
would be that desparate times call for desperate measures. I agree that the pieces they have in place are not compatible. They either need a new coach, new approach, new players or all.
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Mar 18, 2010 12:24 PM CDT up reply actions
Wasn't that Boyz N The Hood?
Or were there similar references in both?
And on that note, I would say the thread is over…
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Haven't seen it
I only watch movies on IFC not USA
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Mar 18, 2010 12:49 PM CDT up reply actions
*not a fan of commercials
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Mar 18, 2010 12:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Ellington
Is the one positive, mostly due to the low expectations associated with a late first rounder. I’m thoroughly impressed by his solid defense and sweet J. He’ll never be a high-level SG because he can’t create his own offense, but he is a floor spacer that can defend his position. Solid pick by Kahn.
Ellington
seems to create his own offense better than most players on our team. He has nice handles and is an above average passer. I still think he should be starting PG… I’m probbaly gonna harp on this for a while.
That's not saying much though
Ellington doesn’t have the size, explosiveness or quick release to create a lot of offense for himself. I don’t know, may be we’re watching a different player. He hardly ever gets to the FT line. I do think he is a fairly refined player though.
In terms of him being a PG, I can certainly see where this makes sense on offense. I think the question is whether defensively he could stay with quicker PGs…..not that Flynn is great either though.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 18, 2010 12:35 PM CDT up reply actions
I don’t see it either. I can’t recall ever seeing him beat someone off the dribble. He mostly spots up, runs the break and cuts to the hoop. Occasionally he’ll dribble around a pick and hoist a J, but that’s not really creating off the dribble.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Fair enough
But putting him at SG would give him a definite size advantage. He’s definitely not explosive, but I do think he is better at putting the ball on the floor than you and Xand1 are giving him credit for. At least he has shown that ability a few times over the last couple of games. He’s had a couple nice drives where he beats his man and finishes in traffic. I highly doubt they are in the game replays, so I won’t even bother looking for them.
Defense would be interesting. On the one hand, he’s almost guaranteed to be better than Flynn. On the other hand, he will (but who wont?) have trouble with guys like CP3 and Rose. But when his man is coming off screens, I think he will easily be better at fighting through them than Flynn. This is usually where our bigs are the issue though. So that is a whole different matter altogether. Though Brewer could definitely give some of those quicker PGs some troubles for 5-10 minutes at a time.
Again though, I don’t think the Triangle needs or even wants a true PG. But he passes well enough for the triangle at any position and shooting is a huge need for PGs in the triangle. He definitely has that ability. The biggest thing for me though is that he is smart. He doesn’t try to outplay his own abilities like Flynn does all the time and Sessions has done a few times this year. Plus, what do we have to lose at this point?
To answer your question: nothing.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Not disagreeing
But what would be the point? (pun intended) Trying to win games? I doubt Ellington has any long term future with us at the 1 when we have Flynn, Sessions, and someday Rubio coming over. I wouldn’t list Flynn as a wasted draft pick yet, but I don’t think we are in such dire straits at the 1 that we use our late first round rookie SG as a PG. While the more PT he gets the better in my opinion, because I want to develop the future talent on this team, but in that scenario we have to keep Flynn playing and just start praying that it clicks.
I wish someone would really get through to Flynn and let him know that he has nothing to prove, obviously isn’t going to lose his starting gig to Sessions, and should really try working on being a better distributor and defender during games. The team appears to have given up on winning, so use the game as practice. If this is a “development” year, then PRACTICE doing things right. I’m talking things like, “I’m going to learn to get my team involved, so other than a point blank or wide open shot, I’m going to pass to get a teammate a better shot”.
I’ve played ball for a long time, and there were many games where we were down by so much, (and a few where we were up by so much) that we went into practice mode. Quite frankly, it takes the pain out of the loss when I forget that it means anything that I’m down by 30, and start thinking about running the play correctly, or anticipating the opponent’s next move.
So play Flynn, play Ellington, but I wouldn’t put Ellington at the 1 (even though he could probably do it), because we don’t want him there, we want him coming off the bench as a SG on our championship team is a few years…or something like that.
by Cedarpenguin on Mar 18, 2010 2:22 PM CDT up reply actions
True
it’s not something I want long-term. I just want to see how it works having a PG whose best asset is shooting. Kind of give us a feel of the triangle and how it works best. At the same time, we get a much better look at what Ellington brings to the table. Can he create his own offense when called upon (it’s never really been his role)? Can he create offense for others? Can he develop into a much better all-around threat? Is shooting more important than passing and creating your own offense at the PG spot in the triangle?
I think the main reason you try it out is (besides having nothing to lose) that you actually get to learn and put your players into new situations to see how they respond. And you also give the guys who earned more PT, more PT.
I've seen him get trapped
in situations where a legit PG could break out or pass out. He’s not a PG. I see
him as kind of a Byron Scott-type shooting guard. A good one. He’s quick at finding
an open space and popping…and hitting 15-25 out. I’d like to see him alongside
a very good Point Guard. He’d play off him well. I haven’t seen enough of his D
to know what he’s got there.
"It's not too far; it just seems like it is."
by WillistonCoyote on Mar 24, 2010 2:59 AM CDT up reply actions
What I'd like to see the rest of the season
Get out of the funk and win 20 games, even if that means winning the last 3 or 4 when teams are either tanking for draft position or resting players for the playoffs.
I like the idea of starting Ellington at SG. It would actually be a good way to evaluate how Brewer work playing next to a SG like Turner if they are so lucky.
Stop playing guys who obviously won’t be here next season…cut it down to about an 8 man rotation.
More out of Darko, see what he can do and give him an incentive to return if it seems good for both sides.
Corey Brewer's by far the biggest positive for me this year
On paper, Love is our best player, but in practice, I really think it’s Brewer. Which is a sad statement about our team as a whole (reminiscent of S-n-P’s point about Kevin Ollie being our best guard last year…) But the fact Corey has developed so much that he’d even be considered a “best player” is pretty amazing. He’s able to do some of everything (albeit inconsistently right now), and he goes 100% all the time…which is more than can be said about some of our other players…
Guys like Hubbie Brown, Jeff Van Gundy, and Doug Collins always say a young team should never have to be coached on effort. It’s been disheartening the last couple of weeks to see some of our players….particularly in the frontcourt…..seemingly give up on the season.
Anyway, I’ve been as optimistic as anyone about Brewer….sent like, 12 emails to the Wolves about drafting him….and I had a feeling he’d shut up a lot of people this year. I’m glad he has. He’s my favorite TWolf.
Other positives for me:
2) Wayne Ellington – better that even I expected. I was thinking 2nd team all rookie before the draft. Not sure if he’ll make it considering all the guards this year, but I think he’s played at that level. A lot of people seemed to think he was just a shooter….I’m glad he’s had a chance to show his all around game. And he’s a lot more athletic than people realize.
3) Kahn/Rambis – sounds weird since most of you are pretty down on them both, but I really think this will pay off huge in the long run. I think more than anything fans are just impatient, which is understandable, but remember that this is both of their first years. They shouldn’t be punished because McHale couldn’t get the act together before they arrived. Personally, I think Kahn has done an admirable job so far of sweeping up Mac’s mess and Rambis has been as good as I could have hoped for, given how weak the roster is.
And I want to reiterate the point that Rambis shouldn’t need to coach effort. I get the complaints about the rotations, but at the same time, I think people misunderstand what he means by “consistently playing” guys who work. Flynn, Brewer, Hollins….no, they don’t always get it, don’t always know where to be or what to do. But they always play hard, always hustle, Rambis doesn’t need to worry about whether they’ll be showing heart and effort. Love? Jefferson? Sessions? Not so much. Rambis is playing the guys he knows will go 100%….that’s what he means by “consistent” rotations.
Also, I agree with the sentiments that our best move now may be to start over in the frontcourt
I think if we can find a way to draft a Derrick Favors, Ed Davis, or DeMarcus Cousins (not at the expense of Turner or Wall of course), then pick up Whiteside or Alabi later on or trade for a Beidrins type or somehow retain Darko, there’s no reason not to and keep Love and Jefferson. Maybe hang on to Love and see if he will work out and accept a sixth man role, but ultimately I agree that we need to find two new big man starters to really start going places.
I usually think of Sessions
as a guy who consistently gives a good effort. Which is why I am more annoyed about Flynn playing ahead of him. At the very least, he always shows hustle while he is on the court, whether his facial expressions show he cares or not is another question (he doesn’t have too many different expressions).
To your extra thoughts in the reply, I’m going to start pushing David Lee whenever I get the opportunity and I think this is one. I never thought I would want him, but he would be a second tier FA that is going to be sought after like a fourth tier FA. I say we trade Love/Jefferson and the Charlotte/Utah pick to move one or both of those picks up (or to move up if we don’t get the second pick) and then sign Lee in FA. I like Love more than Lee, but I think Lee is our best chance at a good FA and he really is pretty comparable to Love. Then we basically turn our non-FA signing into David Lee (nothing into something) and Love into something else (hopefully something to something else of equal value?).
I'm starting to wonder...
…if we’ve given enough thought to just how much cap space would be needed to resign current players along with Pekovic and Rubio. If those two come over, and if they come over in their 3rd season beyond the year in which they were drafted (which is somewhat likely) then they can command salaries above and beyond the rookie scale; Pekovic can get more right away since he’s a 2nd rounder…which may be needed if the Wolves are going to compete for their services with EL teams that are unbound by the CBA. Can each player be had at around the MLE level in their 1st season with the club? If Rubio continues to win, won’t he get an offer above and beyond the rookie scale and won’t this make it more likely that he’s here in 3 years, not 2? If so, I think that adds to their free agent tally.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I was thinking about that too the other day
The usual plan the last 5 years has been what the Lakers and Magic are doing….horde talent by getting around the salary cap. Tons of exception signings and no cap restrictions to keep your own players.
But if the new CBA makes it a hard salary cap, we’re going to need to save a lot of our cap space to keep our talent, and the ones we do keep, we have to be damn sure are worth it
Um...
“Keep our talent?”
I’ll worry about that when we actually get some.
Look, the cap is going to be what it’s going to be, and every team will have to deal with it. The Wolves are a long way from a situation where they have to decide among core players on a winning team.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 18, 2010 7:30 PM CDT up reply actions
My point exactly
In the overall theme of this thread being “What do we build on?”, the answer is “we have nothing to build on”. The only players worth keeping on our roster are a handful of role players.
by Oceanary on Mar 18, 2010 7:40 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
I agree with that with the US guys..
….but I wonder if we’re underestimating just how much competition the EL will provide for two pieces that Kahn is really riding hard in his ticket/building pitch.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Whatever happens
I hope that Kahn (or whoever) thinks twice before drafting a Euro player. Especially if that player is more likely to saying “I’ll pass on the NBA until I feel like it”
BetterLaettner
by BetterLaettnerThanRider on Mar 18, 2010 9:37 PM CDT up reply actions
It will be interesting
to see if a bunch of 2nd round picks getting traded for cash again this summer. Teams might think twice about the Euro-stash plan.
Taylor
That being said, I’m glad Taylor has some influence on the next CBA, because he knows what he has waiting overseas and he needs to get them here.
by Cedarpenguin on Mar 19, 2010 8:33 AM CDT up reply actions
If I had to put money on it
I think that Rubio isn’t coming over until he is out of the rookie scale anyways. Especially with the impending CBA. Unless of course he thinks the CBA will be changed to make it seem more prudent to come over before the CBA. But if he doesn’t, I think he is going to wait for three years… unfrotunately fortunate.
You have to figure Pek will get MLE. Rubio will probably end up getting at least $6M a year? Which is entirely too much for someone we have no idea how he will play. At this point, it doesn’t look like many people will be coming back though. Sessions, Hollins, Brewer, Ellington, Flynn, Love, and Jefferson. I’d like to see one or both of the last two go and Wilkins get resigned for vet’s minimum (assuming he is willing). I really like Love, but his limitations don’t seem to be disappearing any time soon. There are very few people who fit perfectly next to him, which we would need if we are ever to contend. And at this point, I do think he will just end up costing too much money to resign and we are going to get more value out of him now than later. Jefferson (As PD has said many a time) is simply not worth his salary. He limits our defensive ability (and offensive flow) and I seriously doubt that he is a #2 on a contender. Unless that 1 is a Lebron-level player or a great interior defender with range. Or else the 3-8 have to be perfectly complimentary to his style of play… and that’s just not easy to do.
Of those that are on multiple year deals, I would really only like to see Sessions, Ellington, Brewer, and possibly Love come back (and the aforementioned Wilkins). And even then I think Sessions (yes, Sessions) is the only legitimate starter on a contender, with the other three being among the best bench in the league (or… the second to worst starters in the league)
I wouldn't give Pekovic the MLE
Having seen him play a few times…no. Frankly, I’d trade him before I’d empoy him. He really isn’t very good.
by Eric in Madison on Mar 18, 2010 7:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Depending what you could get for him I guess
I’d be willing to give him a couple years at MLE with a team option. I think he really has a future in this league, mostly being able to piss off the opposing team’s bigs with his physical play. He’ll draw a lot of fouls, even in this league. The only reason I think he will have trouble is if he gets called for too many fouls on the other end (or the offensive end, setting illegal screens).
Only way we should sign Pekovic...
…is if both Al and Love are traded. Otherwise, we just recreate (or worse, compound) our current can’t-jump-can’t-defend frontcourt problem
Indeed
But I also really hope that we get rid of one or both of Love and Jefferson. I’m really hoping we trot out a front court of something along the lines of Lee/Pekovic/Favors(or Cousins) next year. It’s undersized for sure, but the eventual swap of Pekovic for a bigger C would possibly push us over the top.
I also like the back court possibilities of Rubio, Sessions, Turner, Brewer, and Ellington. With one more pick in the first round, a guy like Ebanks or Paul George would really fill out that backcourt for next year. This Favors and Turner pick was precedented on something to do with Love/Jefferson/Charlotte or Utah pick to move up.
If NJ gets the #2 pick
I would send them Love (I think he would fit next to Lopez), Flynn and Pekovic in a heart beat for the #2 (take Turner).
Me too. Love and Lopez with Peko behind them would be a great lineup, and might make their FA push easier. “Really, LeBron, are you sure you don’t want to play next to a 20/9 C and a 15/12 PF?” Yikes. But to get Turner, I think it would be worth it.
When I get sad, I stop being sad and be awesome instead. True story.
Sort of
I would deal with recreating the problem if we trade Jefferson because we’d also have whatever asset we got for him plus additional cap space, depending on what we take back for Jefferson.
If he could net us a top 4 pick (and assumed a bad contract)…. but then we’d be betting everything on the draft.
Flynn (Sessions)
BrewTurner (Ellington)
BrewTurner (Charlotte Pick)
Cousins/Favors (Love)
Darko? (Pekovic)
We could overpay Darko to stay another year (still lets him leave after next year if he wants to) and then we can go after a different big later if we want? (e.g. Will Orlando be ready to stop paying Gortat?) So we could get to
Rubio (Sessions/Flynn)
Brewer (Ellington)
Turner (Charlotte Pick)
Cousins/Favors (Love)
Gortat (Pekovic)
by Cedarpenguin on Mar 19, 2010 8:56 AM CDT up reply actions
Gortat is staying in Orlando
He’s the only backup center they have. If they move someone, it’ll be Brandon Bass
I like Brewer too
but I didn’t put him down as a positive because frankly what he’s doing now is what I expected from him as a rookie. He was a 3-year college player that had won a couple of titles and an MOP. Yes, he’s improved, but he still isn’t very good.
by Rascal Flatts on Mar 18, 2010 7:28 PM CDT up reply actions
He's not terribly far behind that
If you look at his injury history, he is more like a second year player coming off an offseason injury. Still maybe not what you hoped, but also not as bad as a third year player doing what he should have as a rookie…
by Cedarpenguin on Mar 19, 2010 8:40 AM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, Foye can still be a point guard. He's like Chauncey Billups.
Oops. Time warp. Sorry.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
I'm not as high on Brewer, either.
I can’t see why no one else sees his inconsistency. He gets plenty of PT, but the results
don’t justify getting a start. He’s up & down. Sure, he has flash; maybe others are blinded
by that. I don’t see him as a starter OR a bench player. A coach has to know what he’s
going to get when he sends a guy in. With Brewer you hope he’s on…you never know.
"It's not too far; it just seems like it is."
by WillistonCoyote on Mar 24, 2010 3:09 AM CDT up reply actions
Now I understand
sent like, 12 emails to the Wolves about drafting him
Beyond the fact that you like athletic players, I was not sure why you’d always given Brewer such a long leash.
Given that our assets right now are waiting on Rubio, the probability that we’re targeting an elite scoring wing (or PG/G) in this draft, and the need to replace our highest paid but worst defending player who does not fit the ball movement offense for a C who will represent a scoring drop off, like it or not we are on the verge of shifting from a front court to a backcourt offensive attack. I don’t think we can make this transition with Brewer as a starting wing. I don’t see what possible lineups would let us get away with not having a strong scoring wing.
And at any rate, has Brewer not been one of our better players this season?
Sometimes you guys still treat him like a hopeless cause, when he’s proven to be anything but this year. 14th among SG in rebounds, 18th among SG in scoring, bascially tied for 20th overall in steals, and he’s hit the markers we set for him at the beginning of the year: 42% shooting (also 18th among SG), 35% from three.
I don’t really think not being hyper-critical of him is giving him a long leash. If I give a long leash to anyone, it’s Flynn. Corey is solidly productive, and I feel I give him the same leeway I’d give other players around his mark….Rasual Butler, John Salmons, etc
What is "one of our better players" worth?
A. We are not the Spurs or Rockets. And I don’t think much of Brewer’s defensive skills. My point is that we will be looking to or wings for scoring in the nest few years. I’m assuming we can’t continue to tolerate Jefferson’s defense, be it at the 5, or (God forbid) the 4. Once his point production is replaced by a defensive center, we need point production from the wings. I doubt we find a center who gives offense and defense, since that’s a it rare and costly these days. If we get have Rubio and Turner as a best case, we need scoring from the other wing to provide sufficient offense. Despite your selective stats use, Brewer is not it. I don’t know if 42% FG is 18th among SGs, but I do know there are 3 or 4 SGs with lower TS%, and an equal number with a greater turnover rate. His best month, looking more and more like an anomaly, is essentially decent SG production made to look like much more than that due to historically awful production.
I don’t think he’s hopeless, although he has been awful in the past. I just don’t think he’s ever be good enough to be a significant contributor. He would fit better on other teams, but we will need scoring from his position. Guys who can create their own shot.
So we'll find some guys who can score
Doesn’t mean we can’t keep Corey or that he won’t contribute. If we, say, draft Evan Turner and he turns out to be as good as Brandon Roy, I don’t see any reason why Brewer wouldn’t be a good compliment to him at small forward. We have a lot more serious problems to address than inconsistent scoring on the wings
Just put it in your sig line, why don't you?
Anyway, I’ve been as optimistic as anyone about Brewer….sent like, 12 emails to the Wolves about drafting him….and I had a feeling he’d shut up a lot of people this year. I’m glad he has. He’s my favorite TWolf.
If you had generic praise of Brewer and disparagement of Love in your “signature,” it really couldn’t be more obvious how stuck in one place you are with those two players.
As far as the “hustle” thing, if Rambis actually thinks “going 100%” is what makes teams win, he’s exceptionally stupid about the NBA game. It’s not “showing heart” to make the same mistake repeatedly and never learn from it. There’s a difference between competing and thrashing around.
"It has come to the editor’s attention that the Herald-Leader neglected to cover the civil rights movement. We regret the omission."
Not to start an argument here
But this isn’t exactly the best time to be defending Kevin “gives up on the season” Love
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