Hope springs eTurneral
by Victor Mature on Mar 2, 2010 9:02 PM CST
32 comments
After my downer comment this morning thanks to most of the Wolves crappy Wins Produced scores, I have decided that the glass should be half-full. Well, quarter-full maybe.
I heard David Thorpe on ESPN's NBA Today podcast of yesterday and it's worth checking out for us T'wolves obsessives. He spoke about the T'wolves potentially picking Evan Turner first overall, over John Wall, if they land there (Lottery luck? T'wolves?). He said that Brewer is already the team's best passer in the triangle and that if they get Turner, and once Rubio comes, that perimeter would be full of excellent passers, which should be entertaining (although shaky shooting, maybe?).
Thorpe also seemed convinced that Flynn is really good, but solely as a scorer and so should be in that role coming off the bench, which seems to be a fairly well-established opinion. But Thorpe was very positive about that being a good thing, as opposed to being a let-down for the 6th pick in the draft. Combine that with Jefferson and Love as bigs and, well, crikey, you might have the makings of decent team. You need to add some size and shooting to be really good, but at this point, frankly, entertaining will suffice.
So, there's hope. However, I must admit that I am already entirely obsessed with landing Turner in this draft. I would pick him over Wall. No Turner, a little less hope. And there's not that much left to go around.
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Its really pretty amazing that this will be the year we land the top pick.
If we do, I’ve still gotta hope we take Turner. The guy just fits into this system so perfectly. He may not be a great three point shooter but neither is Wall. Ellington, Flynn, and Brewer as of late can provide the 3’s—or at least enough to pose it as a threat.
I think too many people think we need to be Orlando with the 3pt shooting. Not true. We really just need to get where LAL and BOS are: solid shooting teams with a few specialists.
Take Turner Take Turner Take Turner Taker Turner Take Turner
Taking Turner rebuilds this team faster than Wall. With Wall we’d be like the heat with Wade – one great player and a bunch of bit players, which, in the Western Conference, doesn’t get you very far. With Turner (and Rubio), we’d be well on our way towards competing with the big boys in the WC. Furthermore, isn’t anyone concerned that Wall’s talents will be somewhat diminished because of our system, yet Turner would be an almost perfect fit for it? Rubio’s particular gifts (passing/court vision, ball movement, jumping passing lanes, being able to play without the ball) are what make him so appealing as a star PG in our system.
To quote one of the comments on a different thread:
Rubio + Turner > Rubio + Wall, even if Wall (slightly) > Turner.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
Great Point
I think Turner is possibly a better player than Wall, but even if he’s not, Rubio + Turner looks like it will be way better than Rubio + Wall. Turner is tjust oo good a fit for the Wolves for them somehow not to land him in this draft.
The world is made for people who aren't cursed with self-awareness
by Victor Mature on Mar 3, 2010 8:59 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
I'm in the Turner camp
but if Wall is guaranteed to be D-Wade in five years, then you have to take him. The Wolves have plenty of assets to bring in a couple other very good players…I’m just not sure it is a given that Wall is another Wade. I really hope Wall and Turner get to the Final Four, it will be very beneficial for scouts to see what they do in that situation.
It will be beneficial for viewers, too
that’ll be really entertaining!
by princelyfrank on Mar 4, 2010 11:45 AM CST up reply actions
Turner
I watched OSU last night and was really impressed with Turner’s perimeter D. Seemed like the opposing ball handler needed a push off to get any space whatsoever.
I'll be the first to admit that I'm a Turner-groupie
But I still voted Wall. You just absolutely can not be the GM who passes on John Wall. Wall has the potential to be one of the all-time greats. Turner has the potential to be a slightly bigger Brandon Roy without the shot (could come in time). I’m not saying Wall is more likely to realize his potential than Turner, but I just can’t stand behind passing on a guy with Wall’s talent and skillset. Decent size for a guard, quick as can be, strong enough to finish in traffic and draw the fouls even at the NBA level, great floor vision, great speed, great handles, decent shot, good ups, killer instinct, and star swagger. That last one doesn’t sound like much, but how often do you see guys who don’t have it become allstars? Kaman? David Lee? Of course there are plenty of reasons to avoid that as well (cough McCants cough cough). But there’s a certain “it” to being a superstar, and Wall has “it” without a doubt.
The only thing that scares me about Turner’s game is how well he would do in a system that doesn’t feature him as the primary ball handler. Though I would love to use him as a PG…. especially against teams like Houston if we can find a defensive presence on the inside. Guys like Brooks and Nash would get eaten alive.
That said though, the only thing I am scared of about Wall’s game is that he could become one of the greatest PGs of all time and we will have passed on him.
Ya
I hear what you’re saying, but Wall just as easily could become a great PG who could’ve been one of the all time greats and never developed enough to get there (which, given how difficult it is to become one of the all-time greats, is the far more likely path). So now he’s competing against the CP3’s, the Derron’s, the Westbrooks, and the Rondo’s of the NBA for the best young PG. And is that bad? No, not at all. But we already have the rights to another young PG who should be able to compete with those guys (albeit in a very style).
Turner strikes me as the DWade to Wall’s Lebron (and Wall is not in Lebron’s category, as far as I’m concerned – just too Iverson-y for me). I don’t think Miami fans are lamenting the selection of Wade because they didn’t get Lebron. Like Wade, Turner will have spent three years in college, and like Wade/Lebron, Turner is 2 years older than Wall. I get that Wall has a rare opportunity to become one of the greats, but I think 3-4 years from now people are going to look at Wall and Turner and say ‘man, those two guys are two of the best players in the NBA right now, the kind of players you want to build teams around.’ I don’t think it’s going to matter who goes first or second – they’re both going to be stars and do a lot for their teams. We already have Rubio – let’s get Turner.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
This is exactly
why I hope we get the second pick!
Actually that’s not true. I would rather get the first pick and NJ get the second pick and see what they would be willing to offer for Wall. You know they want him a ton. Could always start a bidding war to see if we could get some nice young prospects and a pick swap and see if we can end up with something better than Turner or Wall. I think a couple teams would probably be willing to bet the farm on Wall (primarily NJ, maybe even Indiana).
Think it’s possible to get Chicago to buy into a 3 or 4 team deal with us and NJ? The basic premise being:
To MN:
Noah
Deng
Chi Pick
To NJ:
- pick
To Chi:
- pick
Al Jefferson
Some other options are to see where the draft order looks like it will end up and swap into a spot where we can get Favors or Whiteside while also picking up a guy like Iguodala for Jefferson and pick swaps, getting the Anthonys from GS, etc. I couldn’t find anything too fair and intriguing, but there will definitely be some possibilities come draft time. Heck, at the very least we could swap both our picks for both of NJs and at least move up a couple spots from the Utah pick!
Anyways, somehow we would have to use the first pick to get more than Evan Turner when NJ is so head-over-heels for Wall (not to mention the rest of the league too…).
Horrible trade?
So we give up the potential superstar in Turner or Wall and Al Jefferson for Noah, Deng and the 15th pick?
Chicago already offered us (reportedly) Deng and Ty Thomas for Al. They got a protected pick for Thomas. So…we could basically get Deng and their pick for Jefferson. That would leave us trading the #1 pick in the draft for J. Noah? I like Noah, but thats’s crazy. You don’t trade a potential cornerstone franchise player for J. Noah.
"The basic premise being"
“I couldn’t find anything too fair and intriguing”
It clearly wasn’t a trade that was ready to be finalized. I don’t think there is any sort of world where NJ would be here just to swap 1 for 2. I’m well aware that it’s a horrible trade as is.
I happy
that you aren’t the Timberwolves’ GM. That trade is worse than the Deng+Thomas for Al trade that we turned down. Anyway, I don’t think Noah’s trade value is that high anymore with PF. It’s something that doesn’t ever go away.
I'm glad this was in response to my comment
that just said it wasn’t a trade that was meant to be made as is. I can promise you there is no way I would trade Wall/Turner and Jefferson for Deng, Noah, and 15.
Sounds a lot like
“You absolutely can not be the GM who passes on Oden,” which was the general consensus a couple years ago.
It's kind of like that
except Wall doesn’t have an injury history or issues that would lead to chronic injury problems.
…. Turner might.
Not with his back
His particular back injury has a long and extensively documented history of being a non issue for people and athletes who suffer it. In other words once it’s healed it’s out of sight, out of mind. Maybe there’s some other injury history with him I’m not thinking of right now.
Growing my own "Darko-stache" since last Monday.
Not that I can think of
but I was just using it to point out that Wall is the one who has remained healthy and it’s really tough to compare Greg Oden to John Wall.
Wall and Oden are receiving the exact same hype.
The only difference is that Oden did have somewhat of an injury history – but not to his knees, which has been his problem as a pro.
But you here similar arguments for them. “This the kind of (center/point) prospect that comes around once in a generation!” The weird thing, to me, is the apparent consensus that a great point guard is more important to winning championships than a great do-everything wing with size? How so? Jordan and Kobe both fall into the latter category. So does Manu, frankly, more so than Tony Parker falls in the Great Point Guard category.
People who says wings are less important are looking at wings who can’t (or don’t) pass or defend, but Turner does both of those things.
by princelyfrank on Mar 4, 2010 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
I see very few similarities
besides they are both extremely gifted players. Oden’s hype was all about his combination of size and athelticism. Not many people have the potential that he did to become a truly game altering player. Had he stayed healthy, I would still consider him a better player than Durant with how much he has improved in the little amount of time he has had. Oden also had a lot of scouts wondering if he could stay healthy long term because of how his body was built. One of his legs was significantly longer than the other, the uneven weight distribution is just begging for injuries. So you are right that he hadn’t had injuries, but many scouts saw him as a high injury-risk.
Wall on the other hand is hyped up because of his perfect combination of positional size, skill, speed/over athleticism, and just overall talent level. Wall has the talent to come in right away and start doing things that people didn’t think Oden would be able to do (apart from the defensive end) for a couple years. Oden’s offensive game was very raw and he was definitely going to have an adjustment period between defending the 5s of high school and college to defending the 5s of the NBA.
I’d also argue that most of the wings who you say are more important than a PG were more important because they were wings who played PG (Magic Johnson and Anfernee Hardaway were the only ones in this category who were actually still considered PGs). And Tony Parker won the finals MVP over Manu for a reason. He was able to carry them when it counted. Deron Williams is the main reason Utah is doing so well lately. Chris Paul was able to make David West into an allstar and make Peja look like a legit starter again. Chauncey was, arguably, the most important piece in Detroit’s championship runs. Ben Wallace is the only other player I would give consideration to. The rest of the team was just a bunch of far above average role players, Big Ben was just the best at his role.
Anyways, since my point wasn’t really a point about positional advantages, I think Wall will be the better player and that’s why I (and most of the rest of the world) would take him first. Basically, I’d rather have Chris Paul with a few more inches than Paul Pierce without the jumpshot (FWIW, I don’t think Turner will be quite as good as Paul Pierce despite the shooting). As that is what I think their ceilings are. I’d go so far as to say, without injuries to either player, Wall’s floor in 2 years is Rose and Turner’s floor is (really tough to think of actually, so I’m gonna go with draftexpress with some modifications) Anthony Parker v.2.0
Agreed with most everything...
except: Not sure I like the Turner-Pierce comparison. You throw the “without the jumpshot” label there, but that kind of automatically voids it in my eyes. Pierce lives (or lived, before his legs gave out) on getting a little space and a quick pull-up jumper. Turner’s game is far more oriented towards driving to the basket. I’d say Turner also has a lot more potential as a passer and point-forward. I really can’t think of a Turner comparison I like. He seems like a pretty unique player.
Also, I think if you’re saying Wall’s floor is Rose, than there’s no way Turner’s is Anthony Parker. The two player’s floors are not that different. I would put their floors about equal, and Wall’s ceiling moderately higher.
All that said, I would take Wall first. I just think some of the points you make are selling Turner a little short.
Yeah I should have clarified about the Pierce thing
I think Turner will be able to drive and initiate the contact like Pierce. I also think he will be good in the midrange, pull up jumper role that you say Pierce is good at. I just don’t think he will ever be winning the three point shootout or being the best shooter in the league like Pierce is. I don’t know if calling Turner a Paul Pierce without a “three point shot” (edited) is really selling him short. Pierce was a great player in his prime (and still is).
As for their floors, I generally think Rose is drastically overrated. Should not have been an allstar this year by any means. He’s still a great player, but I don’t think he is as good as he is hyped up to be because of his #1 pick status. And that’s Anthony Parker v2.0! I almost went with 3.0 but I didn’t know how that scale works :) Basically I meant that I think Turner, at worst, will be a stronger and more skilled version of Anthony Parker. And that’s Anthony Parker with the Raptors. I’m guessing you are underrating Anthony Parker in the first place. I know I usually forget about how good he really was with them. Before you check the basketball-reference link, take a guess what you think Turner’s stats will be (in his prime) as a worst case scenario. Then look at Parker’s page (advanced and per game/36 with Toronto. Add a nice amount of assists (and turnovers) and free throw attempts and you’ve got a pretty nice statline when you consider I said Anthony Parker v2.0 :) Both are also very good defenders, though Parker was probably a better 3pt shooter than Turner will be (though Turner will most likely be a better scorer apart from that).
Forgot to provide the link after
I did all the work to mention it and go to copy it
http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/p/parkean01.html
Fun game!
I guessed 14-6-6 for a Turner worst-case. Parker’s per-36 in TOR was like a 13-4-3? Pretty close, I guess.
I think a lot of Wolves fan's
opinions are skewed by fit when looking at these prospects. This is probably the only place in the country where the poll results would be in favor of Turner. He’s really good and clearly should be a top-2 prospect but I’m also pretty sure that if Wall/Cousins/Favors stuck around the college ranks for another 2 years that they would be dominating as much or more in their junior years as Turner is right now. I still see Turner as a really nice consolation prize if he miss out on Wall.
What about this scenario?
We get #1, and the Nets get #2. Would the Nets consider trading their #2 to us for either Rubio and the Charlotte pick or Rubio, Pek, and the Utah pick? Gomes’ voidable contract could also be an attractive piece of the deal.
NJ gets the superstar PG they wanted (just not named John Wall) plus other valuable assets. Rubio gets the NY market. We walk away with both John Wall and Evan Turner from this draft.
Who says no?
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Scares me to give up that much
wonder what Rubio’s trade value is nowadays…
I love the NBA Today Podcast
It a long time for me to get turned on to it, because I assumed some ESPN employee that I heard of would have even worse takes than the prominent ones like Chad Ford and Mark Stein, but Ryen Rusillo is really good. He’s got an active B.S. detector that keeps him from getting caught up in dumb stories and rumors, and he does a good job of integrating knowledge from game watching with statistical and financial know-how. I’d recommend his podcast over Basketball Jones or Free Darko any day.
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