The Most Likely Al Jefferson Destination

I mean, the precedent for somewhat questionable moves is there (Gordon and Villanueva mega-bucks signings?).

And looking at their roster, Al might be a pretty good addition for them. Villanueva ain’t no Love, but he can play a bit more of a perimeter game and has the athleticism/length to compliment Al nicely. Plus a beast down low should surely open things up for Detroit’s youngsters. Detroit’s youngsters are also, ultimately, what this trade would be about – if they pick around 7-9 there’s really no one there that fits what they’re doing (or could be doing) over the next 2-3 years, but opening up time for Jerekbo by removing Prince might really appeal to them (over both the short and the long term). There are some good, long SG/SF prospects at the Utah pick range too, and they would fit better on the team than a young big (who’d need more time to develop).

A big rotation of Al, Villanueva, and Wallace isn’t too shabby – that’s some solid and consistent rebounding and scoring with some defensive ability thrown in. A big rotation of Villanueva, Wallace and Cole/Ed Davis/Whiteside is pretty shaky, (or even Patterson) – they could be good, but they’ll probably be maddeningly inconsistent over the next couple of years. You know Al will give you 20-10 every night when healthy and fits in nicely with the bigs you already have, plus moving Prince opens up PT for Jerekbo while allowing you to add a value player at that same position later in the draft. I can see Detroit doing this, and I can see them also not doing it.

For us I think it’s a pretty lateral move. Certainly gives us a chance to add a developable big, or if we land outside the 2-3 enough ammo to potentially trade up for Turner. If we stay there it might allow us to take a flier on a high upside pick – perhaps Whiteside, or even Patterson or Vesely or of course Wes Johnson. This looks like it’d be a pretty interesting draft to have 3 of the top twelve picks, especially if we can land one of the top 3. There are legit star players at the top (Wall, Turner, and I’d argue Favors) that would fit well on our team if Al was moved, and then there are intriguing prospects with length and athleticism and high upsides at the lower picks (7-12 range) who are at positions we need (guys like Aldrich, Whiteside, Patterson, Vesely, Motiejunas, Stanley Robinson, Wes Johnson, Greg Monroe, or Ed Davis). In the best case scenario, how would feel about this team next year/future years?

Rubio/Sessions/Flynn
Brewer/Ellington/Wilkins
Turner/Aminu or Wes Johnson
Love/Aminu or Vesely (or Davis/Patterson or somebody if they slide)
Darko/Pekovic/Whiteside

Length? Check. (Rubio at 1, Brewer at 2, Turner at 3, and Darko/Whiteside at 5)
Athleticism? Check (Brewer at 2, Turner at 3, Aminu at 3/4, Darko/Whiteside at 5).
Rebounding? Check (Love, Turner, Darko/Pek – may not be quite as good as Al, but collectively our rebounding should improve via the other players)
Shot blocking? Check (Darko, Whiteside, Aminu, Turner)
Passing? Check (Turner, Rubio, Love, Darko)
Shooting? Probably the weakest area, but Pek can pound it low, Love’s shown good range, Wellington/Flynn/Brewer are all showing solid skills, Turner maybe, Aminu maybe, Rubio maybe.
Scoring? Most likely check. Turner will be a force. Love will get points, as will Pek and Flynn off the bench. The other guys have pretty high upside too – Brewer might become a 15 ppg guy and Wellington might become a 10-12 ppg guy. We may not have a 20 ppg scorer, but we’d have a guy who could consistently score (Turner best case), and about 5-6 other guys who could give you consistent complimentary scoring of 8 ppg or more (in no particular order – Love, Brewer, Flynn, Darko, Ellington, and Pekovic).

More than anything, that’d be a YOUNG and fun team to watch.

You have to factor in that Al isn’t at 100%. You’re banking on him returning to form – which I think if he was in the old system he would return back to his 20-10 form relatively quickly – which reduces his value somewhat. This deal seems fair to me, as there are issues on both sides as to whether either team would do it, what the relative value is of the players/picks being traded, and the fit of each player on their new team.

I can also upside for both teams – obviously the pick for us, but also Tayshaun either holding the fort down or becoming a viable trade piece in a year or two (forget when his contract ends). Al’s contract is a little bit more of a negative because of it’s length, but he’s also a very productive player no matter what, and he would definitely help Detroit change the nature of their divisional games against Indiana (Hibbert), Milwaukee (Bogut), Chicago (Noah), and Cleveland (Varejao/Big Z). Interestingly those matchups are defensive big (them) against offensive big (Al), but Al has shown in the past that he can get his no matter who’s guarding him. You never know, Detroit might look at the relative youth of those bigs and decide Al is worth countering with.

You want to trade for him?