2010 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference
by littleboxes on Mar 6, 2010 12:09 PM CST
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PrintAny evidence of a Twolves presence? Did they or can they send anyone? If they choose not to send anyone, why did they not send anyone?
These questions should be asked at Hoopus Night!
From Dean Oliver, Denver Nuggets director of quantitative analysis:
"Just a couple of weeks ago, I looked at teams that have stats people integrated into the decision process. (Boston, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Houston, Oklahoma City, Portland and I may have included Orlando -- I’m not certain what they do exactly.) It was seven or eight teams."
We've always had questions here at Hoopus about the level and intensity of the franchise's interest in using statistics. Investing in several staff members who use statistics seems like a low cost way to provide the front office and coaching staff with more information. What they do with this information is up to them, but more information is, often, a good thing.
It would be disappointing to learn that Kahn or Rambis has a strong distaste for statistical analysis.
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How can you be David Kahn looking at that list of stat friendly teams
and not hire the best advanced stat team money can buy.
Chicken and egg,
but please note that the teams mentioned rank 2, 3, 4, 10,11, 14, 15, and 19 in attendance this season, while our lowly Wolves fittingly are bringing up the rear.
Dean Oliver is a Director of Quantitative Analysis who looks at what people in other organizations hold similar titles. I agree that if you want to re-invent your own version of a statistical measurement for both draft prospects and nba scouting purposes hiring someone under this title would be beneficial. That being said, I don’t think you can just jump to the conclusion that because the Wolves don’t pay someone an annual salary to just focus on advanced statistics that advanced statistics aren’t a part of the decision making process.
Look, I’m not saying David Kahn reads fan site message boards, but if you see that dedicated fans now argue Wins Produced, Win Shares, Offensive and Defensive Ratings, PER, Adjusted +/-, and any advanced stat they can find to help them make a point, it’s hard to fathom that David Kahn, a recently hired GM, would not be aware of these and use them in some sort of manner.
Well,
Kahn also said that I would really like Jonny Flynn, and at this moment I do not really like Jonny Flynn. Ergo ipso facto, I question Kahn’s perception.
why not
just assume that Kahn is using a different, and superior, set of advanced statistics. This is the most plausible explanation to the drafting of Flynn. David Kahn has found a statistical measurement for heart. Amazing!
Typical!
We fans are always two step behind accounting for play inspired by tinkly piano music, gradually growing into a powerhouse horn and/or electric guitar arrangement, with lyrics containing the following words:
1. Reach
2. Climb
3. Top
4. Best
I agree
that we really have no idea how far statistics have finagled their way into the Wolves’ player/personnel decisions. But Dean Oliver states that he is ticking off a list of teams that have “stats people integrated into their decision process.” Perhaps this means an official title, perhaps it does not.
While an official title itself has no meaning, the respect an official title usually implies, however, does have substantive meaning. It is likely, though not guaranteed, that teams that rely on more informal mechanisms to integrate stats into their personnel decisions take statistics, and the opinions of those who calculate them, much less seriously than teams that rely on formal mechanisms involving people with an explicit role in the decision making process.
And I hope that David Kahn’s use of statistics does not began and end up the pointing of his web browser to sites calculating PER, Win Shares, adjusted +/-, etc.
He may well have
personnel who are incorporating this sort of data into their decision making but not discussing it explicitly with Kahn.
Kahn does strike me as a “big picture guy”.
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
Jonathan Givony mentions the people representing NBA teams at the conference
http://twitter.com/DraftExpress – it’s down the page quite a bit.
Apparently a gentleman named “Matt Bollero” is representing the Wolves. I’m unsure what his job is, but I’m guessing he’s involved in this sort of thing.
Ummmmm... Please tell me this is him.
My confidence is not inspired http://www.depauw.edu/ath/profile_detail.asp?id=136
although is a member of the National and Spanish Honors Societies and the Key Club…
Well he certainly isn't there
because he was a good basketball player…
And it’s not like people over 30 have any better grasp on advanced stats than anyone else who has looked at them just as much. It’s not like there is really a degree in reading advanced metrics. Stats helps calculate it, but only helps you understand it if you really have no idea how averages work.
You are correct
People over 30 do not have a monopoly on statistical knowledge nor wisdom.
But ask yourself, when Kahn, Hoiberg and who ever else sit in a room or talk on the phone to make a decision, or discuss roster moves, is the 24 year old involved and do they take him seriously?
It’s not his fault he’s 24. But the guy is surrounded by SENIOR colleagues. Unless the Wolves have a rare environment, it’s not easy for a 24 year old to disagree with David Kahn. Actually, Dave my statistics suggest that you’re wrong, by the way, thanks for this opportunity.
Bollero may have a supervisor, I hope he does. I’m certain he’s very bright and super capable. But I think sending a 24 year old to this conference is not a good sign for how seriously this organization has integrated statistical analyses into its decision making process.
Don't want to stereotype too badly
But I’ve never seen a student combine statistical expertise with a stated desire to become an athletic trainer.
We have no idea who the guy really is
There’s more than one Matt Bollero out there, who knows if it’s the same guy. Either way, I’m just happy that we were one of the 16 teams represented there. At least some interest is being shown.
Quick Update
Bollero is an entry level employee in the basketball ops department. He is not listed on the team’s official website but he is an employee. Seeing that he is new to the team and not high up on the chain of command, we’re probably not going to get a download from the team’s experience at the conference.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
These questions should be asked at Hoopus Night!
Absolutely.
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
I second this!
Not happy to see that Mr Bollero was our only rep to this.
I had hoped that Kahn would be a very stats aware GM. This does not seem to be the case. I think it’s a tremendous advantage over half the league right now to have this…and at a very minimal cost.
Great Video
If you follow this link, you can watch a Basketball Analytics panel with Hollinger, Cuban, Zarin (Celtics), Morey, and Dean Oliver. If you fast forward to the 38 minute mark or so, Mark Cuban flatly says that the only reason the Celtics got Garnett was because of past relationships between McHale and Ainge. He also says that there was a point where he thought Kevin Garnett was a Dallas Maverick. Crazy stuff and very interesting.
very interesting
I wonder what was the Mavs trade offer. Cuban’s suggestion that Garnett was almost a Maverick suggests McHale at least made his old friend, Ainge sweat a little.
I was trying to think about what the Trade would be...
Everyone thought of Josh Howard differently back then. He must have been prominently involved. That would have been terrible.
Thanks
for posting that. It was an hour well spent. I wish the audio level was higher but what can you do? There was nothing ground breaking said but informative.
The camera faded in and out a few times. I wonder if those parts were censored for a reason….
wages of wins
while I’ve made my own wages of wins spread sheet and like to look at 82 games data especially relative Per (that is a players per relative to his opponents) there are some things I really wonder about. like how do you compare freshman prospects to upper class prospects in college. Or how to compare a 20 year old against a 23 year old?
Does Rambis receive 5 man unit +/- stats from the front office?
“Cuban thought that one of the biggest edges for him was in understanding 5-man lineup performance. He said there are times when certain opposition lineups indicated lineup data wasn’t being communicated with coach – and that he gets excited when he sees certain opposition lineups come on the floor.”
I'm guessing no...
Considering the worst line-up in the league (by a lot) in terms of adjusted +/- is Hollins/Jefferson/Gomes/Brewer/Flynn…OUR STARTING LINE UP!
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