Wayne Ellington. How good will he be next year??
by NYCVike on May 12, 2010 7:18 PM CDT
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So I'm thinking about our roster, and one of the questions that keeps popping into my mind is "How much better will Ellington be?" If he manages to improve his conditioning this offseason so he can play better defense (not that he was so bad) does he have any potential to be a starting player, or is he only ever going to be a 3 point gunner off the bench?
So, I tend to be a major home-team optimist, but I really do feel like Wayne has a very high ceiling for this team. I think most would agree that they would take Wayne's rookie year over Corey Brewer's. Hopefully Wayne will have a similar trajectory as Brewer has and round out his game with some better ball handling and more aggressiveness offensively.
I feel like he has a complete package to be uncovered, quite possibly starting quality. If he can still drain 3s and starts to find some consistency in driving the basket (and gets the minutes), I see a guy in the 15-20 ppg area. And my optimism tells me that could be as early as next season.
Anyone out there think I'm crazy?
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Ellington
Well, you never know. One good sign is that Ellington improved every year in college, suggesting that he was still maturing as a player. He also improved throughout last season and was one of the better 3-point marksmen after the all-star break. I think his measurements/athletic numbers at the combine also suggested that he has legit 2-guard size – not big, not small, but legit. Where Wayne needs to improve the most is from 10 – 23 feet. His FG% behind the arc and at the rim are stellar. I believe his lack of a quick release and elite elevation hurt him in this range. So he’s going to either need to quicken his release, ala Stephen Curry or Ray Allen, or get better at knocking down shots with a hand in his face. But it’s the in-between game that is key to him becoming the type of scorer you are hoping for. Based on how he improved at UNC over the years, I wouldn’t rule it out.
I don't see it
I envision him emerging as a useful bench player on a good team; a guy who stretches defenses. I don’t see the ballhandling and playmaking abilities that could elevate him into the kind of player you are describing.
We Are the Washington Generals
by Eric in Madison on May 12, 2010 7:36 PM CDT reply actions
Best case scenario
we land a bona fide superstar or two and Wayne become Freddy Hoiberg v2.0. Hoiberg was an absolute stud next to Garnett for two years. Check out his advanced metrics on bball-ref. I don’t think he’ll ever be a 15-20 ppg guy, but he could be a Derek Fisher/Robert Horry type.
"Thankfully, they are not straw-colored brain bats."
by biggity2bit on May 12, 2010 10:47 PM CDT up reply actions
Wayne does
kind of remind me of Horry.
A Darko Fan since 2010!
by TheEvilProfessor on May 13, 2010 7:28 AM CDT up reply actions
Derek Fisher I would take...
That guy does nothing but come up clutch in key moments and disrupts teams flow. I think he is a little annoying but no ignoring his game changing ability.
by Timberwolf i.e. Albatross on May 13, 2010 8:21 AM CDT up reply actions
The key is D
If Wayne can be an above average defender of SGs he can be more than a spot up shooter. If not, he’ll hang around the League getting low money contracts and low minutes. As Eric says, it is doubtful he becomes a dynamic offensive force (there was a reason he was at the end of the first round) so he is going to have to get minutes by being a lights-out shooter (which he isn’t yet). And how many lights-out guys get serious time without being good defenders? Even JJ and Ammo have struggled mightily getting time and they both are better shooters with limitations on dynamism and defense. JJ has picked up the D and gotten more time, and I realize he’s been on a stacked team (as has Morrison for the last year+, but still). I hope he can improve all around, and I thought his handle and driving ability was actually ok, but the reality is very few late first rounders ever become more than low minute guys with a specific skill.
I'll hold your monkey.
Ellington was among the Wolves' better perimeter defenders this year.
He was also one of the tallest short people in the world.
Seriously, though, Ellington’s raps coming out of the draft included his defensive potential, but both in the numbers and by eye, he did fine, especially for a rookie.
"People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character." RWE
Amazing
seeing the difference between a UNC prospect and a Syracuse prospect. Ellington was just so fundamentally sound and really knew how to fight over screens. Perhaps he can become a Raja Bell type of player that can stretch the floor on offense and become a plus defender.
by Rascal Flatts on May 13, 2010 12:01 PM CDT up reply actions
School didn't matter
I don’t think Flynn and Ellington play differently because of where they went to school, it had more to do with experience. Ellington was 22 for pretty much the whole season while Jonny Flynn was 20. If Flynn had stayed at Syracuse for 2 more seasons I think you would have seen a much more developed player entering the league.
Flynn was the starting PG for Syracuse for 2 years
I don’t think his defensive deficiencies would have been magically swept away by another year in school. There is no doubt that playing a zone defense had an effect on him, just as it has for other Syracuse alums.
by Rascal Flatts on May 13, 2010 7:18 PM CDT up reply actions
I think Wayne can be a good starter...
I think it is too early to tell though. Comparing him to Monta Ellis (I tried to copy in the data but it looked terrible), they have basically the same stat line with the percentages going to Wayne’s favor. Also, on DX Wayne measured 2 inches taller, has 4 more inches in wing span, plus 6.5 inches in his max vertical, and was faster in his agility and sprint times. I think Wayne has more defensive potential the Ellis as well. I’m not saying Wayne will ever score 20+ points a game, but it was just his rookie year and he played much better at the end of the year. I think it is too early to say he won’t be a solid starter. He may look really nice playing next to Rubio, Favors, and a stud wing (maybe even Brewer).
This is a strange comparison.
Monta Ellis has the exact ability that Wayne lacks – shot creation ability. Ellis can make something for himself out of nothing anytime he wants to, while Wellington clearly relies much more on getting his shots off of passes from teammates, kickouts from double teams, etc.
Even if they posted similar stats in their rookie seasons, they don’t strike me as similar players.
by princelyfrank on May 13, 2010 11:14 AM CDT up reply actions
Sorry...
I should have made tha clear that Waynes’s rookie stats are about the same as Monta’s rookie stats. Obviously they are not similar at all now.
Rookie comparison:
Here are those numbers, side-by-side.
Ellis shot considerably worse, and played less. Adjusted to by-minute rates, he took more shots with worse results. He was basically given “lead guard/PG” duties, though, and got more assists. (He also added more counting stats on defense, but I think we know the basic outlines of Monta’s defensive play.)
"People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character." RWE
What comparable players can we find looking at Ellington's basic traits?
Wayne’s three point shooting is more unusual than I’d have said offhand. Take a look at
Pretty simple criteria, and yet there are only 11 names on that list since 1990-91. Narrowing things by using both his 3P% and his overall shooting, you can pretty quickly get down to a couple of rookie examples — those being Wayne Ellington and Ray Allen. It’s kind’ve unusual to shoot so well from range but have an overall shooting percentage around .425. Ellington was much less effective overall than Jesus Shuttleworth, of course.
The book’s definitely out. He’ll be lucky to become a starter, for sure, but his main skill is a scarce one. Watching him over time this first season, it’s hard to shake the impression that he could become a pretty well-rounded player. (I’d have been starting him around halfway through last year, for the Wolves….)
"People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character." RWE
I would change the requirements
to 6-3 or taller and .38 or better from three, but move the minutes up to about 800 or so. The problem with low minutes is that you get sample size risk. But the 6-4 height and setting the bar at Wayne’s 3pt % would likely cut off some decent comps.
A Darko Fan since 2010!
by TheEvilProfessor on May 13, 2010 12:38 PM CDT up reply actions
And we easily can:
We’re still talking about a list of only 30 rookies since 1990.
At 6-3 we’ve got a bunch of PG types, including Deron Williams. Ellington is a lot more Courtney Lee than he is Deron.
"People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character." RWE
I'd gladly give Rudy Fernandez a try as a starting SG here.
Makes a lot of sense, Rubio-wise, and he’s a solid player who’s ‘failing to thrive.’
Portland’s fans were ready to leave him at the curb halfway through the Suns series, but I imagine Pritchard’s not quite so hasty.
"People do not seem to realize that their opinion of the world is also a confession of character." RWE
I think he'll be slightly better than this year
I think he’ll work to improve his mid-range game so that he’s not pigeon-holed into being a 3pt specialist. However, he’s probably not going to get more minutes than he did this year if the Timberwolves have a successful offseason.
Check out my NBA Draft blog:
http://casperkid23.blogspot.com/
Agree
He really becomes the casualty of an upgraded set of wings since Brewer can play both the 2 and 3, especially off the bench. But you can never have enough shooters. He would inevitably see playing time with injuries and situational opportunities requiring a floor spacer.
by Rascal Flatts on May 13, 2010 12:06 PM CDT up reply actions
He played quite well
in his limited minutes n Rambis relied on him in clutch situations. I think he will get a better luk in2 dis yr around. I think he can becum a solid starter for the twolves in a few yrs time.
by Souvik Roy Chowdhury on May 13, 2010 10:41 AM CDT reply actions
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