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Realistic scenario

The Wolves have the fourth pick.  There is almost no chance for the Wolves to get Turner unless the Sixers and Nets both decide that a different one of Cousins and Favors is super awesome and are willing to move down or do a post-draft deal (or just take those two second and third, which seems really unlikely).

The interesting thing about the Sixers landing the second pick is that while it's bad for the Wolves getting Turner, it's actually pretty good for the Wolves getting Andre Iguodala.  The Sixers are looking to slash salary, and Turner would make Iguodala expendable.

The Wolves will likely be able to take back all of Iguodala's salary while staying under the cap (they might be able to get Philly to take back Ryan Hollins if the difference is a couple million, and they also have cap exceptions amounting to nearly two million), so they could get him in a straight salary dump.  It would be a good move for both teams.  Iguodala is a fairly young and extremely athletic wing who actually deserves his contract, and more importantly for the Wolves, he's one of the best wing defenders in the league.  He's also the only long-term deal that the Sixers can reasonably expect to deal, since Brand has become an albatross.

I also expect the Wolves to try to consolidate their sixteenth and 23rd picks into a higher pick.  One way that they might be able to get a pretty high pick is to deal the two first rounders along with Ryan Gomes's deal (which can be used to slash three and a quarter million for this coming year if he is cut before June 30th) and their cap exceptions for a traditional expiring deal to a team with salary issues picking in the 9-12 range.  Gomes['s contract], the 16th and 23rd picks, and cap exceptions to the Pacers for the 10th pick and Jeff Foster['s expiring contract] is a workable idea.

In the draft, I think you have to take Cousins if he's there (he's the best player likely to be available, and would make Jefferson expendable) and I'd like to see them grab Hassan Whiteside with their second pick.  He's a finisher, a strong help defender, and an above-the-rim athlete, which is what the Wolves need in the frontcourt.  Moving up to tenth would give the Wolves a good shot at snagging Whiteside.

Finally, I think that regardless of who they take with the fourth pick (I don't see them being able to move up or willing to move down, so I'm assuming they'll pick fourth), they will try to trade Al Jefferson for another wing player.  The pipe dream is to somehow fold a Jefferson-for-Granger deal into the above Pacers proposal, but that seems unlikely.  If LeBron to Chicago is a reality, Jefferson for Luol Deng has a really good chance of happening.  Monta Ellis is another possibility.  There are other wing players with smaller contracts who might be available, but those two are locked up for nearly the same years and money as Jefferson and could be on the trade block.  Toronto also has a couple of players with similar deals in Turkoglu and Bargnani, but you'd have to think the Wolves wouldn't be interested.

The Wolves could realistically come away from the draft with Iguodala, Deng, Cousins, and Whiteside, which would be a really nice offseason.  I don't think there is a true superstar in that group, but Rubio could be the kind of point guard who brings it all together.

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Nice

I like it. I definitely think we should use our cap space to absorb Iggy. Finding a good trade partner for Jefferson will be very important. As you say, we can draft his replacement in Cousins, so getting a good wing player in return will be crucial.

by callmeishmael on May 19, 2010 10:30 AM CDT reply actions  

SDUPIT!

Why would Sixers throw away Iggy for nothing!?
Maybe if they get Flynn and the 4th pick they would.

by tukmolerz on May 19, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions  

I'd be happy to take on Iggy, but as much as they might want to get cheaper

I don’t think the Sixers are giving him away in a straight dump situation.

We Are the Washington Generals

by Eric in Madison on May 19, 2010 10:35 AM CDT reply actions  

I read somewhere, hopefully someone can confirm...

That Philly was pushed into the lux tax by getting the 2nd pick. In other words, #2 may have forced them to take a dump.

by callmeishmael on May 19, 2010 10:44 AM CDT up reply actions  

They are very close to the tax

depending on where it comes out. They may be over. But that doesn’t mean they will just dump Iggy. There are other options. Jason Kapono has one year left on his deal—you think they couldn’t get him off the books in exchange for someone a little cheaper? They could probably move Dalembert for nothing if they needed to.

They have other options

We Are the Washington Generals

by Eric in Madison on May 19, 2010 10:54 AM CDT up reply actions  

Well, either way

If it’s a straight salary dump or not, Evan Turner has made Iggy very obtainable. Even if it did take another asset or two, I think Iguodala would be a better use of our cap space than some other ideas floating around. (I’m thinking specifically about going after JJ or Gay in FA.)

by callmeishmael on May 19, 2010 10:58 AM CDT up reply actions  

If the Sixer's would be so willing to move Iggy

to make room for an unproven, though desirable rookie, what would that say about Iggy. That team only won about 25 games, not sure the Wolves want any of their players.

by Rumblebee on May 19, 2010 1:28 PM CDT up reply actions  

It doesn’t say much, other than that the Sixers put themselves in a bad place salary-wise.

by limozeen on May 19, 2010 2:25 PM CDT up reply actions  

Do we really want to

Commit $108 million over the next 4 years on Iggy and Deng? Even with Rubio, Love, Cousins, and Flynn, is that more than a 50 win team? Yeah I know 50 wins sounds awesome now, but after a few 1st round exits, it loses it’s luster fast.

I’d rather just see us trade Big Al for Iggy and keep flexible cap space.

by Jerwol on May 19, 2010 10:46 AM CDT reply actions  

Why would the Sixers do that? It doesn’t improve their salary situation, and they have Brand tethered to their four spot for the foreseeable future.

Even adding those two pieces, the Wolves could be in a similar free agent situation next year. My numbers show that their salary commitments after those deals would be around $45.5MM. That team would probably not have a top-ten draft pick, so the Clippers would finally get our pick, meaning we’d have no significant cap holds. Rubio would add around $3.5MM in salary, which could be evened out by dealing Flynn or Sessions. A cap in the mid $50MMs would give the Wolves ten million to work with.

The way I see it, the Wolves have to find productive secondary players in deals and free agency, since they’re certainly not getting a superstar either way. I think that Iguodala and Deng are that kind of player. If the Wolves’ picks turn into superstars, they’ve got a contender. If they don’t, they’re not. I don’t see any way around this reality. The fact is that the Wolves have the flexibility to add productive players to their young core right now, and they should do it if they can.

by limozeen on May 19, 2010 11:20 AM CDT up reply actions  

A trade that makes sense

Iggy to the Wolves
Jefferson to the Rockets
Battier + cap relief to the the Sixers

This gives us a foundation of
Rubio, Iggy, Brewer, Love, Cousins, Flynn, Darko, Pekovic, and flexibility to take advantage of a cap strapped team like OKC did to get Maynor.

by Jerwol on May 19, 2010 1:17 PM CDT up reply actions  

No

One of them would be fine, but both would be tying up too much cap at the 2/3. They’re both good defenders. They’re both way better than the wings we have. I’d say take Iggy if he’s available for Jefferson.

by aarendsvark on May 19, 2010 11:56 AM CDT up reply actions  

Except he’s not. The Sixers cannot justify paying the luxury tax for their current roster, and Iguodala is their most expensive player that they can actually move. They will not swap him for a similar contract.

by limozeen on May 19, 2010 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions  

Cousins and Whiteside?

Too much (potential) immaturity given too much responsibility for this franchise, I think.

"Styx might be the mullet of bands."

by biggity2bit on May 19, 2010 11:03 AM CDT reply actions  

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