Our Wolves are worth more than you think!
by NYCVike on May 26, 2010 2:05 PM CDT
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PrintSo I keep reading all the new potential trade posts on this site, and there seems to be a common theme. Whether its that Wolves fans have an inferiority complex, or just because we had a bad year, it seems clear that the fans are undervaluing our assets. To attempt to clarify the pieces of the puzzle that we do have I'm attempting to put together a straight up draft pick value to each of our potentially tradeable players, so the next time you want to trade Rubio and Flynn and Jefferson and the number 4 pick to get Evan Turner you'll see how ridiculous that sounds.
Players:
1. Ricky Rubio - (value #2 overall)
I think he's worth no less than #2. He should have gone #2 last year and if it made sense I could see someone valuing him as high as John Wall.
2. Kevin Love - (value #8 overall)
He's one the best rebounders in the league and still improving. The only reason he doesn't go higher is because he's a little undersized, a little out of shape, and is a "below the rim" player in the post.
3. Al Jefferson - (value #10 overall)
Big Al is one the best low post scorers in the league. If he didn't hurt his knee and have a tough year he would ranked much higher. The only other trade issue is that he makes good money, but its far from unreasonable for his skills.
4. Jonny Flynn - (value #10 overall)
The much maligned Jonny Flynn (when viewed from any vantage point other than being a Wolves fan) is a super-athletic PG with the ability to penetrate as well as shoot from distance. He's high character and there's reason to believe he will turn into a great starter in a year or 2.
5. Nikola Pekovic - (value #16 overall)
He's known to be the best big man in Europe. He's young, he's big and he's got a great offensive game. A guy who can potentially be a legit C in the NBA.
6. Ryan Gomes - (value #31 overall)
Gomes is 3 million in additional cap room for any team. He's not half bad as a player either. On the right team he could be a good 6th man. His real value is the cap money though so I put him as worth the first pick in round 2.
7. Ryan Hollins - (value......um....a McDonalds chicken sandwich??)
The great flailer. Yeah I don't think we'd get much. All we can do is keep him and pray he learns to play defense and block a shot once in a while. Hopefully hes not allergic to lifting weights.
So hopefully this puts things in perspective for some of these trades. Good negotiating starts with knowing what your assets are worth. Undervalue and thats a one way trip to permanent lottery status.
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Too simple
Too much depends on contract status to really make these comparisons.
I think you still undervalue Love—I wouldn’t trade him straight up for the 5th pick, never mind the 8th pick.
On the other hand, I doubt you could get the 10th pick straight up for Flynn, even with the holder of that pick needing a point guard.
Jefferson can’t be looked at this way because he’s paid market rates; you couldn’t get the 10th pick straight up for him for money reasons.
We Are the Washington Generals
by Eric in Madison on May 26, 2010 2:10 PM CDT reply actions
A little oversimplified I admit
I guess I’m imagining a team who wanted to trade straight for one of these players, realizing contract implications change what the actual trade would look like. Just trying to find a simpler value system.
I didn't put Corey on
because I don’t think the team has any interest in trading him. His value to the team is waaay higher than his value in a trade.
How so?
How is Corey’s value higher to the Wolves than he is via a trade? I think he has very little trade value but I also don’t think he is all that valuable to the Wolves. His defense was below average last year and other than a stretch of hot 3pt shooting what else did he really add to the team?
Corey
is a perfect fit on this Wolves team. Even if he’s not a starter, he’s a fantastic bench guy. He plays terrific defense, he improved his shot and it will get even better next year. He is one of our best fast break players. Plus I think the Wolves like his personality and attitude. His value to us is waaaay higher than his trade value.
When you see a discrepancy like this:
His value to the team is waaay higher than his value in a trade.
It means something is wrong. The words “sunk costs” leap to mind.
"No experience has been too unimportant, and the smallest event unfolds like a fate..." RMR
He's like that old family relic you keep around
because you know nobody would even buy it at your garage sale.
"Support bacteria - they're the only culture some people have." Steven Wright
A woman I know
found a lamp at a store, had the thought “Boy, this would sell great at my garage sale,” and bought the thing new. She brought it home and sold it.
(And no, this is not intentionally a joke about Jonny Flynn or anyone else.)
"No experience has been too unimportant, and the smallest event unfolds like a fate..." RMR
Its simple.
He fits us better than he fits other teams. We know him. He has upside. Worth more to us.
Pekovic
Pekovic isn’t considered the best Center in Europe, Tiago Splitter is.
In a vaccuum I’d agree that Rubio could very easily go #2 this year. The problem is he isn’t going to play in the NBA next year which brings his value down in my opinion. I really don’t see anyone trading a top 5 pick for him straight up because of his contract situation.
Pretty good estimates
especially if money is not included. Considering how many teams have major cap space right now I am OK with not getting too much into salary.
I’d move Love, Jefferson, and Pekovic up 2 or 3 spots.
Flynn might be down a couple, although hard to say.
Gomes, I don’t think they get more than a mid 2nd rounder for him right now.
I agree with Rubio’s value being less because of his contract status, however, the point is mute because unless its for a sign and trade for lebron or CP3 or maybe Bosh I don’t think he will get moved at all under any cirumstances. I’m not even sure if philly called and said I’ll give you the number 2 for the rights to rubio and the number 4 that Kahn would take it. I don’t think he would. I know I wouldn’t.
It's all subjective
It’s hard to say what a player is worth. Rubio may be the second pick in the draft but a team won’t give us that if they think we’re desperate to move him. Likewise with Jefferson. I think alot of people are knocking Flynn because of the success of some of the guards chosen after him. He was asked to run a more complicated system and was given less free reign than those players so I’m not sure that is a fair comparison. For me the jury’s still out on Flynn.
by Achilles Fang 1 on May 26, 2010 4:57 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
Even though it's oversimplified (as you admit) thank you
for writing this post. I’m getting irritated reading about all of the irrational trade ideas.
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