So.........if we DON'T get one of the first 2 picks, WHAT THEN?????
by NYCVike on May 3, 2010 10:24 PM CDT
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PrintI shudder to mention it without knocking on wood, but I'm a realist and it is in fact most likely that we end up with the 4th pick in this Timberwolf-yearly-screwing known as the NBA lottery. So here are my ideas for each of the 5 possible pick slots.
The no-brainers:
#1 - Evan Turner.
Sure, John Wall may have a higher ceiling, but Turner is right on his heels and he is the smooth scorer that the Wolves need so badly. He's also a great rebounder for his position. I think the Wolves take him if they get #1, with some small potential that they would draft Wall and trade him for Turner if there was a team that could offer that. It would just be a waste to draft Wall and trade Flynn and still have no outside shooting.
#2 - Evan Turner.
Pretty sure he'll be there at #2 no matter who gets the #1 pick. He's the perfect need/value pick.
The crapshoot:
#3 - Derrick Favors.
So, all of these picks between #3-5 is really a question of whether or not we are trading it to whoever drafts Turner. I could potentially see us trading this pick with a guy like Ryan Gomes to get Turner. That being said, if we stick with the pick, I think we have to go BPA and Favors has the upside to be a superstar. We would likely move Al or Love during the year if we took him, but if he is a legit star it would be worth it.
#4 - Wesley Johnson.
I just can't see us drafting Cousins. He's the biggest talent in the draft, but there's no way Kahn puts his butt on the line for a 19 year old diva. Johnson is an older prospect but really fits a need and looks to be a really solid all around player with legit star potential.
#5 - Wesley Johnson.
I think he'd still be there at #5 and considering the crap luck we would have to get the #5 in the lottery, Johnson would be a fantastic consolation prize, as I think there is a significant drop off in talent after him.
Again, the big question is do we trade for Turner (I personally think yes) or stand pat. Any way you slice it though, we're gonna have a great prospect. I'm also secretly harboring hopes that Xavier Henry will be there at 16. That would be unbelievable no matter who we draft.
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If the Timberwolves draft Wesley Johnson with the fourth pick
I will resign my fanhood. And I’m serious this time…
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on May 3, 2010 11:09 PM CDT reply actions
Yeah...
…it would definitely speed up the process for me. I’m completely serious when I say that I’m giving them until the trade deadline to do something special before I give it up for good.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Would that mean TWolvesblog wins the war?
Kidding.
But in all seriousness, how would drafting Cousins and having to trade him in 15 months for something like Javale McGee and Nick Young affect your Wolves fanhood? To me, that’d be a tougher thing to go through. Obviously Johnson isn’t the ideal player in this draft, but the reality is there are three players the Wolves could greatly benefit from. It’s not their fault if the lotto luck fails them again. We certainly can’t say that they didn’t try to get the best odds possible.
My guess is that, if we are faced with taking Johnson or Cousins, we do everything possible to trade up for Evan Turner, even if it means ditching Love or Jefferson. If nothing realistic comes up, we’ll probably settle for Johnson and hope he’s a nice wing for a Rubio-led offense.
And speaking of Rubio, and while I’m all over the place, watching Steve Nash dominate last night, I couldn’t help but think of what kind of offense Ricky could run. It certainly is not a triangle, at least as far as I can tell. Nash is CONSTANTLY taking the ball to the paint, with his head on a swivel looking for cutters. He is an unbelievable offensive player. It shows what some size, conditioning and other-wordly vision/passing ability can do for a team. Phoenix’s offense is unbelievably fun to watch. But, none of it works with Damien Wilkins and Corey Brewer on the wings instead of Channing Frye and Jared Dudley. That’s where a guy like Wes Johnson could help.
I don’t mind Wes Johnson, but IMO there’s little if any separation between him and wings like Henry, Anderson or Paul George. I’m not a huge college hoops fan, but I saw Anderson play later in the year (not the tourney where he obviously struggled) and he looks like a player. I like the idea of getting him later vs. taking Johnson at 4.
If I couldn’t have Cousins and had to take someone else, it would probably be Ed Davis. He’s got a nice package of skills/athletcism. We’d obviously need to move one of Al/Love, but we need to do that anyway. I’d be much happier with Ed Davis and James Anderson than Wes Johnson and Larry Sanders or Whiteside.
That's fair...
I don’t think Wes Johnson is some sort of potential superstar. I guess I just consider him the “best of the rest” after the Big 4, and I don’t want Cousins. But, it’s certainly a drop off and guys like Johnson, Aldrich, Aminu, Davis, Monroe and a few others are in the discussion. For one reason or another I like the idea of Wes Johnson on a Rubio-led team. Not a Flynn-led team, so much.
3 players the Wolves can greatly benefit from?
I realize you don’t care for Cousins at all and have made that well known. That being said, nobody knows how these guys are going to turn out in the NBA. I’d say there is a 50/50 chance that a player not taken in the top 3 turns into the best player in this draft. We just don’t know who that is going to be. So to say that there are only 3 players that will greatly benefit the Wolves is a little premature.
I guess..
I thought I covered the level of doubt by using “could” instead of “will.” My apologies, because I agree with your basic point.
My opinion is that the Wolves potentially could be greatly helped by Wall, Turner or Favors. In the case of Wall, I think that likelihood is pretty high. Maybe not quite as high for Turner and Favors, but both are pretty intriguing for a variety of reasons. Outside the Top 3, I don’t see much hope for a game-changer. In my own opinion, which isn’t worth much, we should be happy to land a quality starter that fits a need such as the wing position. At 16 and/or 23, we could swing for the fences on a guy like Whiteside or whoever else has the physical potential of a star, if it’s not going to bring the opportunity cost of passing on someone like Xavier Henry or James Anderson.
I'm at the point..
…where I’ve followed this team for 20 years and I’ve had the football pulled away one too many times. When they failed to move Theo Ratliff’s contract for something useful, that was the start of a put-up-or-shut-up period that has now seen them miss several additional opportunities to change this club in a way that does not correspond to a ticket pitch and, instead, is about putting a good product on the court. My brand loyalty to the Wolves is just about used up. It’s been short-sold with ticket pitch after ticket pitch while they, as a whole, spiraled incompetently downward. They have an off season and a trading deadline to keep me in the ticket line/sweatshirt buying isle. Personally, I think it has more to do with the owner than anything else….but that’s a subject for another post, I suppose.
Anywho, I’m becoming less and less optimistic about my prospects of following this team a year from now. They’ve finally reached the point where the internal strategy is open hope for luck. This is after they had a once-in-a-generation talent with 2 first round draft picks in 1999 and Brandon Roy falling into their laps about a half a decade later. They’ve had their luck. They’ve had a ton of it and they’ve blown it. They’ve had some bad luck by never moving up in the lotto, but they’ve had far more good luck upon which they’ve failed to capitalize.
BTW and FWIW, they’ve pretty much telegraphed the Turner-at-all-costs pathway. I don’t know how many people caught it, but Turner Tweeted at Flynn a few weeks ago joking him about whether or not the Wolves had his locker ready. Kahn has pretty much said it to anyone who will listen that they’re going to try and cash in for one of the top 2 picks if they land outside of that range. Personally, I think the “plan” is hoping for luck with their own pick to get Turner and then cashing out on Favors while throwing some free agent money at the best available 2 guard they can get. I’d be pretty giddy about that and I’d be even more giddy if they can find a way into Dallas’, Chicago’s, and Miami’s offseason trade needs while picking up a solid wing player for around $5 mil in free agency (maybe Azibuke).
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I agree on the Turner at all costs pathway
and I believe we have the pieces to go get him if we get the 3rd or 4th pick…not sure if we can do it with #5.
by Rascal Flatts on May 4, 2010 10:12 PM CDT up reply actions
If we don't get one of the first 2 picks...
then we do whatever we have to do to trade up. After a 15 win season no one is sacred (except Rubio).
I quit life...
Man I just so hope to get #2. I’m not greedy and don’t want to move up. Just want the spot we deserve.
by Timberwolf i.e. Albatross on May 4, 2010 8:12 AM CDT reply actions
Repeat after me...
We WILL get the top pick….
We WILL get the top pick…
Your 2010 Wolves Starters: Wall, J. Anderson, Granger, Al, Whiteside
Building Phoenix 2.0
Having mulled over this unthinkable scenario yesterday, I had a bit of a revalation. I found it interesting enough to inspire me to make my first Canis Hoopus post. As many of you have probably noticed by now, several NBA draft sites have been comparing Wesley Johnson to Shawn Marion and Derrick Favors to Amare Stoudemire. If we decide to move Al Jefferson for a top 5 pick, we could potentially get our hands on both… And I’m sure I don’t have to remind you of the numerous comparisons between Ricky Rubio and Steve Nash.
If you think back a couple of years, this was a Phoenix Suns squad that was virtually unstoppable, and by drafting Favors and Johnson, we’d look a heck of a lot like them.
Suns 2006-2007:
C – Stoudemire – Ultra-athletic finisher
PF – Diaw – Skilled PF that can spread floor with passing and shooting
SF – Marion – Ultra athletic finisher/defender with shooting ability
SG – Bell – Knockdown 3pt shooter, defensive stopper
PG – Nash – The ultimate distributer
6th – Barbosa – Speedy Change of pace guard
Wolves 2011-2012:
C – Favors – Ultra-athletic finisher
PF – Love – Skilled PF that can spread floor with passing and shooting
SF – Johnson – Ultra athletic finisher/defender with shooting ability
SG – Brewer – Knockdown 3pt shooter, defensive stopper
PG – Rubio – The ultimate distributer
6th – Flynn – Speedy Change of pace guard
It’s something to think about if we don’t land the #2 pick.
by Hansotek on May 4, 2010 10:40 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Welcome, and interesting
I think the main problem with that scenario is that Wes Johnson isn’t nearly as athletic as Marion, and Brewer isn’t ever going to be the shooter that Bell was.
On the other hand, this could be a better rebounding team than that Phoenix team ever was.
We Are the Washington Generals
by Eric in Madison on May 4, 2010 11:21 AM CDT up reply actions
I think this would be the best way to approach this...
If we fall that far, adding two big men that fit into the Triangle offense better than what we currently have would be great. Then we sign a FA to fill in the Wing spot cause I am not sold on Brewer there.
by Timberwolf i.e. Albatross on May 4, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
meh
Every person on the suns team is better than ours. And the suns didn’t get anywhere with that team thats why they traded away marion. We should find a better team to follow
But man would they be a lot more fun to watch...
…dare I say FUNNER to watch!
by Timberwolf i.e. Albatross on May 4, 2010 4:57 PM CDT up reply actions
I am hoping for a top 2 pick
But I’m certainly not going to threaten to do something dire if we don’t get it.
There is a > 60% chance we do not get a top 2 pick, with 4th actually being most likely. See http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery#Process
I’d like to think the Wolves are ‘due’ in some sort of historical sense. However, statistics don’t work that way. Just because you flipped 4 heads in a row does not change the fact that there is a 50% chance the next flip will be a head.
I believe Kahn when he says they will try hard to move up. I think he regrets not moving up for Evans last summer.
FWIW (prolly not much) Alex Raskin who covers the NY area for Hoopsworld said in a chat today that the Nets may take Cousins/Favors over Turner. So if the Wolves get #3 and the Nets have #2, we might be able to get Turner anyway (either by white-knuckling it or trading something reasonable to move up one spot).
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
I don't know about the source...
But idea of the some team passing on Turner to take Favors or Cousins is plausible. These guys are going off of what they think is best and not necessarily who the “consensus” top picks are. There is a case to be made for either of those guys over Turner.
by pagingstanleyroberts on May 4, 2010 11:11 AM CDT up reply actions
If you add up the probabilities of 1-3...
We basically have a coin flip of landing 1-3 (56.4) but if the Nets get #1 that will eliminates their 39.3% chance of landing 2-3 which will greatly benefit us too.
To be honest…I could not know a thing about what I am talking about. I have been out of college for a while now…
by Timberwolf i.e. Albatross on May 4, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
actually better than 4th is most likely
It’s something like 55% that we get picks 1,2 or 3. Of any single pick, it’s most likely we get number 4, but since we look at picks 1 and 2 as the same player it’s 39% we get turner, 17% we take Cousins (in my opinion, certainly not everyones), and 44% this changes completely over to a korean recipe blog.
And any thoughts about trading into the top 2 are unrealistic. Although there’s a chance you fleece the guy buying, more likely you trade away your career as GM (See Rudy Gay, Brandon Roy, Vince Carter, and Luol Deng. For the glaring exception that doesn’t really prove the rule, there was Brand for Chandler)
by midlife crisis on May 4, 2010 12:46 PM CDT up reply actions
You draft the best player available
If Cousins is there and Wall and Turner aren’t you take Cousins.
by waldo11teen on May 4, 2010 11:48 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Indeed
he may have concerns with his character or overall maturity, but the bottom line is that talent wins in this league and none of the guys outside of Evans, Wall and Favors are likely to be as much of an impact player … maybe if you’re dead set on not taking him, you trade back into the draft to get a guy like Aldrich (assuming you really want a center) but BPA is the rule at the top of the draft.
yeah..
….sub 20 win teams shouldn’t think of anything but bpa.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
although I will say that if the wolves
draft cousins, Al is gone pretty quick in my opinion.
A Darko Fan since 2010!
by TheEvilProfessor on May 5, 2010 9:45 AM CDT up reply actions
I'll just keep repeating:
Cousins! Cousins! Cousins!
and say no to WeJo
any of the top 3 picks and we’re in great shape, even the 4th pick with Favors may turn out to be good – but the 5th pick would be sad beyond measure because that may very well mean Wesley Johnson who has virtually no shot at being a star, whereas the first 4 do.
NYCVike – if we knew each other in the real world we would make a very nice sized bet, enough to make us both sweat, on how Cousins vs. Johnson will turn out.
LOL
Hey, Cousins is IMO the most talented player in the draft. Problem is his talent doesn’t help you when he shoots himself in the leg at a night club. Johnson isn’t the best player in this draft, but I do think he has underrated upside. If we were betting on a full career’s body of work I would probably take the bet.
:)
I don’t think Cousins is that type of Plaxico/Roethlisberger problem player. I read a few articles in the last two months that made me think he is more thoughtful and just got a bit of a chip on his shoulder from how he grew up and his size – not a loose cannon type. Still…not the most mature player, we agree on that. :)
OK then – a bet on the full body of work for their career – in order that we have some objective criteria how about total number of all-star games, fair enough?
At some point in the future when both have retired let’s just agree to raise a toast to the other if we have lost this particular internet bet.
Fair enough
A toast it is.
The funny thing is, in rereading this I realized the guy is 2 years from being OLD enough to get into a night club. Maybe I need to start a post about how the NBA drafts 18 and 19 year old guys and then complains that they have “maturity” issues. LOL
Don't deny
’’With the 5th overall pick in the draft the Minnesota Timberwolves select ……..Cole Aldrich out of the University of Kansas."
by Twolves for ever and ever on May 4, 2010 11:33 PM CDT reply actions
I hope not
his upside is Pryzbilla 2.0.
A Darko Fan since 2010!
by TheEvilProfessor on May 5, 2010 9:46 AM CDT up reply actions
sigh
that would just be a big bowl of warm porridge, wouldn’t it
hard to be really angry about it, but no way you can get excited about it either
My top 10 choices......and Johnson is #10
1. Turner
2. Wall
3. Cousins
4. Favors
5. Al-Farouq Aminu
6. Monroe
7. Ekpe Udoh
8. Hassan Whiteside
9. Donatas Motiejunasand
10.Johnson
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