FanPost

Up, Down, Turnaround: How to Move Around in the Top Ten of the NBA Draft

Wolves' POBO David Kahn has made no secret about their coveting of Evan Turner and/or their impulse to move up or even down from the #4 pick. We've all tossed around ideas for how to do this; we've all read the same rumors about what Philly/NJ/Det/Whomever wants to do.

But in recent history, how have actual "draft day" deals looked (or near draft day; eg, last year's acquisition of the #5 pick by Kahn)? Maybe to get some context for what the Wolves will need to do move up, get another top 10 pick, or even what they should expect to receive by moving their pick, we can consider the past. Here's a brief history going back to 2000 of every such deal involving a top ten pick.

2000:

The Bulls sent the #7 pick (Chris Mihm) to the Cavs for the #8 pick (Jamal Crawford) and cash.

The Rockets sent the #9 pick (Pryzbilla) to Milwaukee for Jason Collier and a future 1st.

The Magic sent the #10 pick (Keyon Dooling), plus Corey Maggette and Derek Strong to the Clippers for a future 1st and cash.

2001:

Clippers sent the #2 pick (Tyson Chandler) + Derrick Skinner to the Bulls for Elton Brand.

Hawks sent the #3 pick (Pau Gasol) to the Grizzlies for Shareef Abdul-Rahim.

Nets sent the #7 pick (Eddie Griffin) to the Rockets for Brandon Armstrong, Jason Collins, and Richard Jefferson.

2002:

Knicks sents #7 pick (Nene), Marcus Camby, and Marc Jackson to Denver for Antonio McDyess, Frank Williams, and a 2nd round pick.

2003: None.

2004:

Clippers sent the #2 pick (Emeka Okafur) to the Bobcats for the #4 (Shaun Livingston) and the #33 (Lionel Chalmers)

Wizards sent the #5 pick (Devin Harris), Christian Laettner, and Jerry Stackhouse to the Mavs for Antawn Jamison and cash.

Suns sent the #7 pick (Luol Deng) to the Bulls for the #31 pick, a future 1st, and cash.

2005:

Blazers sent the #3 pick (Deron Williams) to the Jazz for the #6 pick (Martell Webster), #27 pick (Linas Kleiza), and a 2006 1st rounder (a spare one they had from Detroit, which ended up being 2006's #30: Joel Freeland).

2006:

Bulls sent the #2 pick (LMA) and future 2nd rounder to the Blazers for the #4 (Tyrus Thomas) and Viktor Khryapa.

Wolves sent the #6 pick (Brandon Roy) to the Blazers for the #7 pick (Randy Foye)

Celtics sent the #7 pick (Randy Foye), Raef Lafrentz, and Dan Dickau to the Blazers for Sebastian Telfair, Theo Ratliff, and a 2008 2nd rounder.

Rockets sent the #8 pick (Rudy Gay) and Stromile Swift to the Grizzlies for Shane Battier.

2007:

Celtics sent the #5 pick (Jeff Green), Wally, and Delonte West to the Sonics for Ray Allen and the #35 pick (Big Baby Davis).

Bobcats sent the #8 pick (Brandan Wright) to the Warriors for Jason Richardson and the #36 pick (Jermario Davidson).

2008:

Wolves sent the #3 pick (OJ Mayo), Marko Jaric, Antoine Walker, and Greg Buckner to the Grizzlies for the #5 pick (Kevin Love), Mike Miller, Brian Cardinal, and Jason Collins.

2009:

Wizards sent the #5 pick (Ricky Rubio), Etan Thomas, Darius Songaila, and Oleksiy Pecherov for Mike Miller and Randy Foye.

 

Some random observations:

There's not one but two "on point" instances where a team moved from #4 to #2: The Bobcats did it in 2004 to get Okafur and the Blazers did it in 2006 to get LMA. And in both instances, all it cost was a spare 2nd round pick or some shuffling of middling assets. Looking at it this way, giving Philly the 4 and 16 would be a fairly significant overpay. Hell, if Philly got the #4 and the #23, they'd have gotten a better deal than the previous two scenarios. Similarly, when Utah moved from #6 to #3 to get DWill, they needed a mere #27 and #30 to grease the wheels. IOW, if the Wolves want to move UP (#4 to #2, not keeping #4), there's no reason they need to offer much to do so. Again, their rumored offer of #4 and #16 is very, very generous.

If they want to add a second top 10 pick, it gets significantly more costly, but Al Jefferson would seem to be on par for some of the other bigger names that have been involved in such scenarios (Ray Allen, Jason Richardson, Abdul-Raheem, Antawn Jamison...) and would probably be quite sufficient to get it done, if the Wolves wanted to.

Pure salary dumps are unpredictable.

NBA trades are unpredictable.

Don't underestimate the value of late 1st/2nd rounders; they seem to come in handy when trying to snag a better pick and/or an extra pick, almost as though it gives the team moving down a certain peace of mind, in a "we still get a young player out of this" sort of way.



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