FanPost

Draft Scenarios

I was just thinking over all the options that we have in this draft, and there are many different ways it can take shape for our team. We can move up or down within the top 2-7 picks. We can move around the middle of the draft with our 16 and 23 picks, and we can use players as well as cap space as well as our numerous draft picks to try and make a team to be excited about next season.

So with all that has been said and done during the last few weeks, what do you feel is the ideal outcome for the draft?

It seems that there are a few general ways that the draft can take shape, generally dependent on how we decide to use our #4 pick. There are many trades we can utilize to make these moves, but to save everyone from too many more trade rumors, I will just try to think about the draft and the trades in general terms.

Here are three general ways that I can see the draft unfolding.

 

1. Trade up to get Turner. I have heard the different rumors and possible deals, and the actual trade could go a lot of different ways, but this route seems to lose us an extra player and/or pick.

We probably keep one of our later round picks and also grab a wing/big man prospect.

2. Stay the course. Pick Cousins/Johnson at 4, pick wing/big man prospect at 16 and 23.

3. Trade down a pick or two to take Johnson, use the extra assest/16/23 to perhaps grab another lotto pick, and pick the best prospects we can.

 

Now, of course these are just 3 simple versions of how the draft could go, but I certainly think that our draft will be mainly defined based on what we decide to do with our top pick.

For my money, I prefer we stay the course with option number two. Here is a break down about why I like and dislike the various moves we can make.

 

1. I really like Turner. He is the second best player in the draft and is probably the best player for our team. He is a can't miss, and instantly makes a top-tier wing combo with Corey Brewer. If we can end up with him I would be very excited, and really this could be the best option. We don't have to mess around with multiple picks with 'upside,' we just get a player we know is good.

This could possibly be the best option, but it pretty much hinges solely on what it takes to get him. Would Turner be worth a bad contract and one of our best players?

2. I like this option the best because it is as safe of a bet as Turner, but with more players and more potential. Cousins is almost a can't miss. His skill level is better than that of most centers in the league right now, and the only concern is his maturity. You can decide what to make of his issues, but to me the fact that he has not had any criminal or off-court problems means that there has been much ado about nothing.

What we do get from this option is the most players. We are not forced to make a hasty over-pay, and we retain our later picks in the draft. There is certainly a log-jam with our big men, but I would have to think things would get straightened out and a post draft or mid-season trade would come.

3. Again, there are things to like about this option as well. Johnson may be a great fit for our team, and we are also able to get ourselves some extra assets. For this option I would have to assume we also get another high pick to help hedge our bets. We are probably able to pick up another wing prospect plus a big man.

What is intriguing is that we would really hedge our bets. We can end up with three players that have lottery talent, but maybe no star potential. We could really round together a good team, but it seems pretty clear that we would not get our star.

 

Overall, I feel that if we do not get one of the top four players (Wall, Turner, Favors or Cousins), then this draft will be a failure. We absolutely need to get star-power in this draft, and while there are things to get excited about with the later round picks, none of them are really going to impact our team much.

Kahn needs to go for a big hit in this draft, and I do not believe that is done by taking the safe play. We have to either move up and get Turner (overpay be damned), or we need to hold our breaths and take Cousins. Both could immediately help our team, make it interesting to watch, and give us a lot of hope for the future.

What do you all think? What general approach to this draft seems to be the best?

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