FanPost

Rumors, rumors, rumors.


So I figured I'd write up a fanpost for the next couple of weeks which figure to be pretty dang busy if last year and JAF's posts are any indication. I'll weigh the bigger rumors and figure out which rumors might preclude others and which ones might fit well with the others.

Rumor 1 (Courtesy of Chad Ford):

The Trade: 4 + 16 + 23 for 2

Analysis: Yuck. Once again, Cousins (or Pick 4) + Fernandez (see Rumor 2, or Pick 16) + Seraphin (or Pick 23) > Turner by far. Pretty much stops most of the next two (and last) rumors in their tracks. I'd much rather do:

 

Rumor 2 (Courtesy of SnP):

The Trade: Rudy Fernandez as a possible acquisition target. The potential trade is based off of a brief mention of an IM by SnP (It's just a rumor and one of many possible options, don't hold him liable if this particular option doens't happen!): Rudy + 22 for 16 + 23

Analysis: Rubio bait which also gives us a solid starter at the 2 who can also play the 3 for brief periods (unreliable defensive metrics say he is much more suited for the 2). Already has good chemistry with Rubio, and apparently Fernandez performs better when he is playing with his friends, Sergio last year. Kind of a bad reason to play better and most likely an excuse and nothing more, but it's possible he will get some sort or renewed vigor.

 

Rumor 3 (Courtesy of Chris Broussard):

The Trade: Anthony Randolph + 6 for 4 (or the many variations of said rumor, none of which should include Love so I'm going to pretend they don't)

Analysis: I'd be ok with this, but it wouldn't make me jump for joy by any means. Which should tell you all you need to know about what I think of the many variations GSoM posters suggested to us. I like Cousins, though I can see the argument for trading him for another high potential, uptempo player and the 6th pick. I also think it would make the original rumor seem a lot better (4 + 16 + 23 for Evan Turner + Anthony Randolph... though it's still not a good deal for us by any means, just an acceptable one).

 

Rumor 4, 5, and 6 (Courtesy of The Fans):

The Trade: Al Jefferson for Tayshaun Prince + Pick 7

Analysis: I highly doubt that this one happens. Just look at Detroit's payroll for the next few years. On the one hand, they are committed to winning now and Jefferson will help them do that a lot better than Pick 7. And Prince is also getting up there in age, so unless they are a legit contender this year, he won't help them much and isn't worth paying next year (so they save that issue as well). On the other hand, Jefferson adds yet another player that they are locked into for the next handful of years. Their current contracts are not quite sunk costs, so they can't justify it this way either. So overall, the trade helps both teams in terms of talent and winning (we clear our frontcourt minutes up while adding a veteran wing with winning experience and another lottery pick while Detroit gets current production upgraded in a position of need while adding another kind of bad contract to a roster filled with bad contracts).

Also consider Al Jefferson to the Rockets, who are said to have interest in him and talk about him has actually caught on over at The Dream Shake, which lead me to write a fanpost asking what they think fair value for Jefferson is. So far about 50% (despite the lack of posters) seem to at least want to figure something out for him (and the fourth... but no thanks!). Then again, a lot of them still really want to avoid him.

Also consider Al Jefferson to the Bulls if they miss on Bosh/Amare/Boozer and especially if they end up with a SF (Lebron or Gay, for example). Deng is the obvious piece that needs to be included. Just something to keep in mind, I doubt that they are a real trade partner as of yet.

 

Rumor 7 (Courtesy of A Troll):

The Trade: Pekovic + second rounder for 14

Analysis: First off, most likely can't coexist with Rumor 5. I'd be hesitant to include a second rounder, but depending on how our FO thinks the draft order will fall, I'd be willing to do it to fill in a spot with Henry, George, Aminu, and possibly Babbitt. I'd also do the swap for Cole Aldrich or Ed Davis. So there are options, but there are also a few scenarios where I am not a fan at all (all of these guys could very possibly be gone). Pekovic will most likely outproduce just about everyone we can pick here for a year or two, possibly longer, so it really comes down to a financial decision as well as one to hopefully reduce our positional redundancy.

 

Rumor 8 (Courtesy of Kahn):

The Trade: Who knows + Kris Humphries + 3 for Who knows + Gomes + Who knows

 Analysis: I'm just speculating, but Kahn mentioned the third pick can be acquired, where we could get Favors (this would mesh well with Rumor 3 if they want Johnson as Sacramento seems high on Monroe, and I'm sure there are plenty of other offers for Pick 4 as well). There's also speculation (Courtesy of DarrenWolfson's Twitter as far as I can tell) that it would be because NJ wants more cap space, hence Kris Humphries. I would also suggest that Devin Harris could be moved as well as Yi if they really really want to clear out cap space. I'm guessing Al Jefferson for Dampier would somehow have to come into play here. But then who knows where to go from there.

My best guess if it goes there: Jefferson for Dampier + 2012 first and then Dampier + Pekovic for Harris + Humphries + 3... I don't know what else to offer them apart from second rounders, Love (which again, would make the Anthony Randolph rumors seem better), or one of our PGs, but this could clear out Love, Jefferson, AND Pekovic and make plenty of room for Favors, Darko, and Randolph (Or Cousins even). Basically Dampier (via Jefferson) + Pekovic + Love for Harris + Expiring + Favors? Too much. I'd prefer a PG and second rounder for Euro stashing instead of Love (could still do  for 6 + Randolph). Dampier + Pekovic + choice of Flynn or Sessions for Harris + Expiring + Favors

 

 

So all in all, Rumor 1 would pretty much destroy any chance we had at Rumors 2, 3, and 8. Rumors 4, 5, and 7 seem like they would definitely support something similar to Rumor 1 going down, though that's not to say they couldn't happen if the first rumor didn't. Again, I think we are overpaying in Rumor 1 by quite a significant amount and we can find better value elsewhere if these other trades did go down (though we would obviously have to find value somewhere as we could potentially, however unlikely, end up with 5 high picks). Rumor 8 most likely doesn't work with 4, 5, and 6 as it seems as if Al Jefferson would likely be on the outs already (Though I could be way off base with the Dampier guess). Rumor 7 works with just about everything else except the Jefferson to the Rockets rumor. Sorry if this was a little confusing with all the up and down trying to figure out which rumor I am referring to.

 

 

I guess if my ideal combination of these rumors went through (and only these rumors or a package of picks for a higher pick, if reasonable. I am also going to ignore rumor 8 because it's too complicated to predict), we would end up with a lineup of:

Sessions/Flynn (Rubio)
Fernandez/Ellington/Henry/Brewer
Prince/Brewer/Henry
Cousins/Love(Seraphin)
Darko/Cousins

Pick 14 is still left to use for BPA (George/Aldrich/Whiteside/Babbitt) or to trade for the best opportunity. Gomes cut to save cash. Hollins not on the active roster for sanity's sake. Next year we probably visit the lottery again (I'd estimate 8-10, unless everyone plays to their potential and Rambis starts some smart rotations) and I'd like to take the most athletic wing we can find then... Could trade the 14 or even Pek for a future first for a team we don't expect to do well next year. There are some obvious wing targets for next year, I'll leave the speculation for next year though, since this won't happen anyways :)

This lineup is using picks 4, 7, 14, and 22 (I'd prefer to deal Jefferson to Houston for Battier and pieces, but it isn't feasible to send them Jefferson AND Pekovic... I don't think. I'd also stash Seraphin to cut down on rookies in one year)

This is rumors: 2, 4, and 7

 

So I guess feel free to comment on the rumors themselves, which ones you like/dislike, which ones you would like to see in conjunction with each other (give your starting lineup next season!), any rumors I am forgetting, etc.

Keep in mind the Al Jefferson trade ideas are by far the most speculative, while the others are mostly based on rumors that may or may not hold any water.

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