FanPost

Draft Surprises and Results

Most of the hand-wringing (I'm not going to say justified or not) about the Wolves' draft revolves around how they left value on the table. Basically, I wanted to go back through a good site for mock drafts (DraftExpress) and see how the draft-day surprises worked out. I'm only looking over the past 3 drafts since that's all they have in their archives, but maybe this will put the later picks (particularly Lazar Hayward) in perspective.

'07

Drafted Higher

  • Thaddeus Young (projected at 20, drafted at 12): definitely a good pick for the Sixers considering the busts chosen after him (Acie Law, Sean Williams, Javaris Crittenton)
  • Marco Belinelli (projected at 24, drafted at 16): not terrible, but not good, especially since they traded him for basically nothing
  • Jared Dudley (projected at 28, drafted at 22): became a productive player in Phoenix
  • Aaron Brooks (projected at 40, drafted at 26): a steal even at 26
  • Alando Tucker (projected at 42, drafted at 29): fingers crossed that this isn't Hayward in 3 years
  • Arron Afflalo (projected at 43, drafted at 28): rotation-caliber player

Drafted Lower

  • Nick Fazekas (projected at 26, drafted at 34): stats darling who hasn't made it yet
  • Derrick Byars (projected at 27, drafted at 42): hasn't made it yet
  • Josh McRoberts (projected at 30, drafted at 37): showed some signs for the Indiana Whitewash
  • Taurean Green (projected at 31, drafted at 52): hasn't made it yet
  • Ramon Sessions (projected at 32, drafted at 56): a rotation-caliber player
  • Demetris Nichols (projected at 37, drafted at 53): had a few cups of coffee but that's it
  • Dominic McGuire (projected at 38, drafted at 49): been in the NBA but not made much impact
  • Zabian Dowdell (projected at 39, not drafted): hasn't been in the NBA yet

2008

Drafted Higher

  • Marreese Speights (projected at 28, drafted at 16): a PER darling who hasn't proven much
  • Serge Ibaka (projected at 29, drafted at 24): deserved to be drafted this high
  • J.J. Hickson (projected at 30, drafted at 19): good value
  • Ryan Anderson (projected at 32, drafted at 21): good rotation player but might not get much better
  • Joey Dorsey (projected at 40, drafted at 33): bounced around a bit
  • George Hill (projected at 44, drafted at 26): another steal late in the 1st round
  • J.R. Giddens (projected at 48, drafted at 30): ugh
  • Sonny Weems (projected at 54, drafted at 39): showing signs of contributing

Drafted Lower

  • Kosta Koufos (projected at 11, drafted at 23): having some problems beating out Kyrylo Fesenko
  • Darrell Arthur (projected at 16, drafted at 27): unremarkable to this point
  • Donte Greene (projected at 18, drafted at 28): shows some promise but was taken at the right point
  • DeAndre Jordan (projected at 21, drafted at 35): shows promise but still raw
  • D.J. White (projected at 23, drafted at 29): tough to tell due to injury that cost him a season
  • Chris Douglas-Roberts (projected at 25, drafted at 40): good player but apparently a headache
  • Mario Chalmers (projected at 27, drafted at 34): taken way too low
  • Nathan Jawai (projected at 31, drafted at 41): hasn't shown much
  • DeVon Hardin (projected at 33, drafted at 50): playing overseas
  • Bill Walker (projected at 35, drafted at 47): showing some signs of being a player
  • Richard Hendrix (projected at 36, drafted at 49): been on a roster and that's about it
  • Jamont Gordon (projected at 39, not drafted): never played in the NBA
  • Pat Calathes (projected at 45, not drafted): SnP fav from a few years ago that hasn't been in the NBA
  • Gary Forbes (projected at 52, not drafted): never been in the NBA

2009

Drafted Higher

  • Brandon Jennings (projected at 17, drafted at 10): great pick
  • Tyler Hansbrough (projected at 22, drafted at 14): contributed decently
  • Austin Daye (projected at 25, drafted at 15): not much contribution
  • Darren Collison (projected at 34, drafted at 21): a steal
  • Wayne Ellington (projected at 40, drafted at 28): jury's still out but should stick in NBA
  • Jermaine Taylor (projected at 43, drafted at 32): stayed on roster
  • Jon Brockman (projected at 44, drafted at 38): not bad, not great
  • Jeff Pendergraph (projected at 45, drafted at 31): contributed when injuries hit
  • Jodie Meeks (projected at 52, drafted at 41): stayed in league but not much contribution

Drafted Lower

  • Jrue Holiday (projected at 8, drafted at 19): probably deserved somewhere in between
  • Sam Young (projected at 18, drafted at 36): probably should've been picked higher
  • DeJuan Blair (projected at 21, drafted at 37): another steal
  • Ty Lawson (projected at 13, drafted at 18): a steal at 18
  • Byron Mullens (projected at 15, drafted at 24): jury's still out
  • Jack McClinton (projected at 29, drafted at 51): couldn't even make the Wolves last year
  • Chase Budinger (projected at 33, drafted at 44): decent rookie season
  • Marcus Thornton (projected at 35, drafted at 43): decent rookie season
  • Patty Mills (projected at 39, drafted at 55): stayed on Portland's roster
  • Jonas Jerebko (projected at 28, drafted at 39): rotation player
  • Josh Heytvelt (projected at 41, not drafted): not in NBA
  • Ahmad Nivins (projected at 48, drafted at 56): not in NBA
  • Paul Harris (projected at 50, not drafted): not in NBA

There have definitely been some guys who seemed to be reaches that turned out okay and some that didn't. Here's hoping that Lazar Hayward is more Aaron Brooks than Alando Tucker. One thing seems clear, though: later in the first round and early in the second, teams who pick someone higher than projected often get a rotation player, and guys who slip are more likely to bust than guys who rise.

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