There Will Be Lemonade
by Stop-n-Pop on Jun 25, 2010 11:18 PM CDT
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PrintOK, now that we have the initial draft reaction post out of the way and everyone has had a bit of time to digest what went down just over 24 hours ago, it's time to take stock of the action in as pragmatic frame of mind as possible. It is what it is and it has to get better. It's the Rummy approach: We go to the ticket booth with the ball club we have, not the ball club we want to have. How can this franchise improve and what are the positives that we can take out of the first major act of the 2010 off-season? We'll take a look at what can be made of the 2010 Draft lemons below the fold.
First of all, let's get something very basic out of the way: Wes Johnson and Lazar Hayward appear to be amazing professionals and the type of young men you want your daughters to meet. Good for them. Maybe they can get together with Nick Punto and make head first slides into Sid Hartman's office for exclusive interviews with his voice recorder toting intern.
As is the case with the bad apples, we here at Hoopus are as equally unconcerned with the off-the-court antics of the good ones. Canis Hoopus will never be KAREHOOPUS or your Good Neighbor down the dial. We don't give a flying you-know-what about meaningless hustle and "playing the right way". We want winners. We want competent f'ing players. The desire for said BS seems to be a uniquely Minnesotan sports characteristic and it's time for it to be retired. We are a Punto/Gardy free zone and swagger is welcome if it comes with a "W".
Now that all of this has been said, and now that I have had some time to really think about what in the hell happened at MSG, here is what I think is worth being excited about after last night's action:
- Tony Ronzone and Pete Philo have been handed the 2nd round. Philo has always been respected, but with the addition of Ronzone, the Wolves suddenly find themselves with a tip-top international scouting operation and it showed last night. Congratulations Wolves fans, you have something that is amongst the very best in the league!! I will never claim to be an expert on anything Euro League related, but from what I have been able to gather via emails, texts, and IMs, the Wolves picked two very promising Euro players last night. For each and every negative thing we hear about David Kahn, we hear 5 good ones about Ronzone and/or Philo. Now, if only the team could do something about its domestic scouting operation, we'd be on to something.
- The Wolves got better. They were unable to take the BPA at 4, 16, and 23, and they gave away Ryan Gomes' contract in the middle of a league-wide arms race to drop as much salary as possible, but they replaced the minutes of Damien Wilkins, Corey Brewer, and Ryan Gomes with Wes Johnson, Martel Webster, and....well, Corey now gets to come off the bench. It's not a massive improvement, but it should improve the Wolves chances simply by making their worst position a serviceable one. Remember when we went all dorky about how the problem with the Wolves after the Jefferson injury wans't the minutes that Kevin Love replaced for Big Al, rather the ones that Love gave up for a bowl of nothing? Same concept here. The Wolves have replaced a big bowl of nothing with something. It's not the best value....but it's something.
- Al Jefferson still needs to be traded. Let's do the math. There are about 4-5 clubs that are doing whatever they can to get rid of salary. There are a boatload of potential big name free agents. Someone is getting left behind. Will Kahn be able to get value from a team that misses out on the free agent action? I'm not particularly optimistic about this option but I can 150% tell you it is exactly what the team has in mind. They think that a team like the Bulls or the Nets is going to end up empty handed and they will make a lopsided trade for Al Jefferson. We'll just have to wait and see on this front, but I will admit that there is the possibility of something good happening. Oh, now that the Wolves have Hayward, Webster, and Johnson, they can throw Corey Brewer into the deal.
- Cap space. Yes, I know it is completely ridiculous to think that the Wolves could land LeBron, Wade, or Bosh....but what about a sign and trade for a 2011 free agent? What about a lopsided trade during the season? Again, we're talking about Kahn and Minny, but the possibility for such a move exists. "Lopsided trade" should become two words that each and every single Wolves fan should become acquainted with.
- Kevin Pritchard is on the market. Hire him. Seriously. That's a very positive draft day development for the Wolves and it should not be overlooked. David Kahn needs to be Pritch Slapped.
- Martel Webster is the best player in the Webster/16/Gomes deal. The Wolves massively overpaid and David Kahn seems to not understand the value of Gomes' contract, but the Wolves did walk away with a very serviceable starting wing player that is long, athletic, and...well, can he play the 2? Again, not optimistic.
- Did we mention that Tony Ronzone and Pete Philo are very good at what they do?
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Hit the Nail on the Head
1. I think you should add as a positive they seem intent on keeping K.Love.
2. Is it your guess that an Al trade will be later rather than earlier this summer? The only reason I ask is because of Kahn’s Rhetoric about Al being on the Market-Today. This seems odd if they don’t have something in place.
my best guess...
…is that the team is slowly figuring out that they were given ridiculous offers for al early on only to see them dry up and they are coming to grips with his low trade value. this is where not having a stats department hurts. the rest of the league knows what al is. this isn’t to say he is bad. it’s simply to say that he’s a very specific player and that his skill set will not be used by the wolves. each and every single other team in the league with a stats department has a more realistic view of the guy. i don’t know what his value is but i am pretty sure that the wolves are coming to grips with the fact that it’s not as much as one would suspect for the main part of the kg deal. i hope they can find a good partner for al, but we’ll just have to wait and see.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
There are actually more potential suitors for Jefferson
this summer than the teams under the cap that get left behind in free agency. Most of the free agent’s would prefer sign and trades, and so would their previous team’s once they realize the guy is lost. Most of the teams under the cap have little left to offer in a sign and trade, so adding Jefferson as part of a 3-team trade is also feasible. Teams like Toronto and Phoenix might look at Jefferson as better than nothing for the guys they are about to lose.
I’d say about 10 teams are legit landing spots for Jefferson, and something decent will be returned, although we may not see the benefit until 2011 draft.
Unfortunately, probably no help for next season
We are probably talking 1st round picks in 2011 from teams that think they can make the playoffs by adding Jefferson. That would be a team like Phoenix, if Amare leaves for nothing, they are cooked. Maybe they take Jefferson in a 3-team deal and send what they hope to be a mid-teens pick to MN. Basically, Wolves cross their fingers and hope the pick is higher, but at the least get out of Jefferson’s contract and free up playing time for Love and Pekovic.
As far as actual players, maybe Deng (Jefferson to Toronto in a sign and trade, Deng to MN), or Iggy, can’t think of many more. Another possibility would be your theory of getting back a few cheaper players with potential (maybe a Euro) and hoping one hits.
It’s not going to be anything exciting, pretty much salary relief and a prospect. The exception could be NJ. If they get a guy like Joe Johnson in free agency, maybe they trade Favors for Jefferson and Pekovic?? They can’t wait four years for Favors if they land Joe Johnson….this is probably best Big Al scenario for Wolves. A front court of Love, Favors, and Darko could be interesting, and they can give Favors a few years to develop.
Okay, I see your logic
It’s just that when I think about moving Al in a three-team deal, I like it until I realize it’s going to be a mid- to late-round first pick.
I still feel that Wes Johnson will be well above servicable
We’ll have to see how it turns out, but I just think a guy with his combination of athleticism and shooting ability is going to be one of the better wings in this league. We’ll have an advantage at the 3 with him more often than not
Yes...
He has miraculously transformed from the lazy defender and 1-dimensional spot up shooter that he was at Syracuse.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Lazy defenders don't average close to 2 steals and blocks a game
And one-dimensional players don’t average 16 points and 8 rebounds a game.
Whether he has goo fundamentals in man-to-man defensive schemes remains to be seen, but lazy and one dimensional are not at all fair assessments of his game
yes, the rebounding suggests not lazy
although I could see someone making argument that he got all those rebounds because he was so old and experienced and has long arms, which makes hustle unnecessary and unbecoming.
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:13 AM CDT up reply actions
Huh?
Was he also a strong rebounder as a frosh because he was so young and inexperienced and didn’t know he should hustle?
Yes they do...
In a Syracuse zone…
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Seriously Oceanary...
Did you you even watch Wes this year?
I watched him about 10 times. Totally non-descript player. Totally lazy on the Syracuse zone wing rotations. Never saw him put the ball on the floor ONCE!!! We just drafted another Dennis Scott at #4.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Ya, I watched him
If you’ll remember, this site specifically asked me to watch him as part of my column. And based on what I saw, I’m pretty sure I can safely say you’re regurgitating stereotypes
I'll bet you $100 right now...
That Wes Johnson never makes an All-Star game.
Take it, or not?
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Sweet...
We’re on.
Wally was a pathetic pony ride for KG. Who on the Wolves is going to pony Wes?
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Rubio
Maybe even Flynn. Shawn Marion made it the year they had Marbury in Phoenix. Peja Stojakovic, Rashard Lewis, Allan Houston, Glenn Robinson, Cedric Ceballos, Hersey hawkins, Dale Ellis….the number of “one dimensional shooters” who have made an all star game is pretty endless
Johnson isn't really comparable to those guys
Despite being “one dimensional shooters”, Houston, Robinson, Ceballos, et al were better offensive players in college than Johnson was.
Ed Weiland sets the benchmark of a future All Star SF at 20 P/40 by the time that they’re an upper classmen; Johnson averaged just 18.8 P/40 (pace neutral). And the aforementioned players?
Szczerbiak: 25.5
Marion: 22.7
Houston: 23.2
Robinson: 35.6
Ceballos: 24.9
Hawkins: 28.6
Ellis: 22.4
Johson averaged 13.0 P/40 during February with an injured hand which also saw his Assist rate double during that time. If you can understand that a hand injury would affect someone’s ability to shoot the ball and forces them to pass more this make sense.
Without February, Johnson averaged over 20 P/40.
Ebomb
This is a really great point, one I’ve read from you several times. I have a feeling you are going to have to keep making it, over and over again.
Johnson is really exceptional in many ways. Sitting out his sophomore year. Not playing basketball until he was older. His injury in February.
All of these attributes make the statistical projections of his NBA performance problematic. He’s unlikely to align well with average predictions.
We shall see.
I don't think Wes
needs to be an All-Star to be an impact player. The NBA has a core of about 10 guys who make the game for a decade, then another 15 or so who get there 1-3 times. Point is, a lot of very good players never make the All-Star team.
BTW
If the Wolves had a top-2 pick, then I think it is fair to expect all-star games, after that it is more likely to land very good starters.
He will be judged vs. Cousins
if Cousins becomes an All-star. If Cousins becomes a flop, the Cousins supporters will forget they wanted him and ultimately judge Johnson by where he was drafted.
absolutely…hopefully Wes fares better against DMC than Foye did against Roy, Flynn against Curry, McCants against Granger, Brewer against Noah, Ebi against Howard, Barbosa, Perkins, Wally against Rip, Andre Miller, Marion, Terry.
Wow…revisiting our draft history is depressing.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
We shall see
At this point their is no sense debating who the pick should have been, it was made, games will be played, and we’ll see.
Weiland and others make the narrative that Johnson had a great Oct-Dec against poor competition which masks the fact that he didn’t perform in conference. If you look at just his conference statistics, they are much worse.
But then Weiland includes a chart of month by month of performance, and January and March in conference were similar to his out of conference performance; however, February was brutal. .349 adjusted FG%, 13.0 P/G, and and an A/TO ratio that skyrocketed for this month. In March he came back to have the same previous shooting and A/TO ratios he had prior to February.
February is an extreme outlier. If you think it’s due to Injury, Johnson becomes that elite prospect that did deserve to be included in Tier 1. If you think it was a cold shooting month in the middle of conference season indicative that he is a streaky player and not a consistent shooter, then you compare him to J.R. Giddens.
He hits every one of Weiland’s benchmarks for a legitimate SF prospect but P/40 when we include February. When we don’t include February, he easily nails all those benchmarks. Until games are played, we won’t know which narrative is correct.
The other thing he has going for him is elite length and athleticism
It’s much easier to continue improving when you have some built-in advantages physically. I think the thing he’s really going to need to perfect is the one or two-dribble mid-range jumper, especially since it doesn’t appear he’ll ever be an advanced dribble-drive kind of guy. This is what the great wing players all develop (and why I was so high on Evan Turner). He clearly has the ups and release point to get that shot off on anyone.
by Rascal Flatts on Jun 26, 2010 2:00 PM CDT up reply actions
His athleticism and shooting stroke
really help salve the pain of what I think was a missed opportunity. I doubt he’s ever going to develop to the point where he breaks people down off the dribble, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be a solid contributor.
The part that helps in this regard...
Is if he can get his shot off against any defense. If he’s able to do that and convert at a high rate, that will allow him to be more productive. Many scouting reports on him imply that it’s very difficult to block his jump shot.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 26, 2010 4:23 PM CDT up reply actions
Very very difficult
Long arms, explosive leap, quick release
If he can be a consistent jump shooter against close defense, his upside shifts dramatically. It’s so rare an ability it’s almost lost, and younger fans forget players used to be able to do it at all.
Don’t take this post as implying any comparisons whatsoever, but in my mind, ‘Melo is the best player to have taking clutch shots in the NBA, and he mostly shoots jumpers with guys draped all over him. Here’s all I will say: being able to make a jump shot in any situation is as valuable a clutch skill as any in the NBA.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 26, 2010 10:22 PM CDT up reply actions
I totally agree
Melo has a Reggie Miller-like ability to hit shots….I guess THROUGH the defense is the best way to put it. If Johnson can do that, he goes from high end role player to perennial all star
At what point...
Will it be reasonable for me to demand my money?
When he has a Martell Webster-like 5 year run of mediocrity, can I claim my money?
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Or this...
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=84c_1259299326
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
awesome! Where I can be the amazing transformational pod?
Unbelievably the varying opinions on this guy.
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:09 AM CDT up reply actions
where can I GET the transformational pod.
Although, I’d also love to be one.
Hey baby, I am an amazing transformational pod. Want a ride?
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:10 AM CDT up reply actions
perhaps
Love could be the guy who looks slow and craptacular, but people love him.
Wes could be the guy who looks fast and awesome, but people hate him.
Oh, we can write the future…
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:11 AM CDT up reply actions
Well, Minnesotans do seem to have a strange affection for the workman types
If we did get a sleek and sexy athlete like LeBron, it’s almost like we wouldn’t know what to do with him.
“He’s athletic and graceful AND skilled? Booo. Send him away and get me a guy who runs the floor like Mark Madsen instead”
by Oceanary on Jun 26, 2010 12:16 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Mark Madsen did not run the floor
he exerted maximum effort to lift his legs and place one foot in front of other. Just another example of his amazing work ethic.
The only Free Agents in 2011 Worth a Sign and Trade are Mark Gasol, Tayshaun Prince, Carmello, Durant,
And Maybe a Jamal Crawford or Big Baby Uno Uno Davis
Might as well cross Durant off the list
The Thunder will sooner burn our entire state to the ground before letting him go
by Oceanary on Jun 25, 2010 11:30 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Something needs to be cleared up, now.
What could have been gotten with Ryan Gomes’ contract? Please answer this, now. I didn’t realize this was such an asset until we used it on Martell Webster. Nobody discussed it before that, except when talking about Beasley who 51% of the fanbase didn’t want, anyway.
I suspect that the “massively overpaid” talk is 110 percent related to outrage over Johnson vs Cousins, so I challenge any of the Cousins Fan Club to give a trade proposal where Ryan Gomes nets us more than a guy worthy of 119 starts in his last 164 games for the Portland Trailblazers.
Most likely to a team in the lux
Any other year, he would have been a lot more valuable, but way to many teams have capspace, negating much of his value. Getting a team under the luxury cap though would have been one thing, even though that’s not a huge advantage now because they have all year to do so.
More likely, the contract could have been held for another year as there was still another option year (I believe) or at least until the deadline. But yes, his contract was still overvalued because of the year in which we happened to have such an option… bad luck strikes again!
Buckeyes are red, Wildcats are blue,
I wanted Evan Turner, But DeMarcus Cousins will do.
Most of those teams would've theoretically used the draft for clearing that room, though...
And New Orleans got a better deal than the Wolves could offer because they didn’t have to take back anything but picks for Peterson’s contract.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 26, 2010 12:15 PM CDT up reply actions
i think...
…gomes will be waived by portland and that he could end up back here. his contract really is a good thing in a league where you have lots of teams trying to get rid of as much space as possible.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
i think..
…brewer is going to be packaged with jefferson if they get the chance.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
weird
Does the team want to stay well-stocked with defibrillators or something? Was that a low blow?
I like Gomes, he seems like a tremendous human being and on some nights, I even enjoy watching him play basketball.
Is the sense that they need to trade Corey to make Big Al more attractive or that they want to trade Corey to clear up room for other guys?
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Heheh
Unspoken comedy at its finest.
I looked ahead to the open road, thought about the people and what they know, and wrote a book called "People Don't Know Nothin!"
What do you base that opinion on?
It seems to me that Brewer still doesn’t have a lot of value around the league, whereas he does to us. He’s still viewed as a bust, while we see him as a long, athlete for our system, and a testament to our player development skills.
Plus, I just checked, and Martell Webster didn’t play any SG last year.
just a hunch...
….since they drafted and/or traded for 3 guys that play what they believe to be brewer’s natural position. i’m fairly certain they hate brewer’s play at the 2, think he is an overrated defender, and they may even dislike the way he looks at people. plus, they do think webster can play at the 2 a bit. i think that’s kind of nuts, i personally like brewer but i do think that he is the first person added to a deal if they can do it. actually, that’s not completely true, i bet ryan hollins gets that honor.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I don't know that Brewer will be in a package deal
but I definitely see him packaged or going to one of the teams that has cap space, maybe for a 1st rounder next year similar to the Charlotte pick this summer. The Webster deal looks a lot better if/when Brewer is moved. Without the Webster deal, Brewer probably doesn’t get traded, and since I doubt they plan on keeping Brewer long term, better to trade him now for value than lose him next summer for nothing. Brewer is not, and probably never will be, a $5 million per year player. He’s a nice 8th man who should be making $2-3 million per year.
I think in a convoluted way the Webster deal is going to end up saving on Gomes buyout, and moving the 16th pick this summer into a similar pick next summer, while upgrading from Brewer to Webster. Seems like a good deal to me.
Wow, they're more perceptive than I thought
Though, I am curious to see if brewer would be a better defender on a team with other + defenders.
That's weird
On his Twitter page he lists himself as “a shooting guard in the NBA.”
Doesn’t even mention small forward.
So, at least HE thinks he can play shooting guard.
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
Because of his weight and strength
Gomes can guard all sorts of players that Corey could never guard. And he can play the 4 when the opponent goes small. I think bringing him back here would be a really good idea after we unload Brewer or Webster as part of the Jefferson trade. Miami was never going to trade us Beasley for Gomes straight-up. Beasley will be key in a sign and trade for one of the top free agents who insists on the max money.
Theoretically, yes...
In practice, Brewer did a better job guarding LeBron/Melo/Pierce than Gomes ever did. That’s not even mentioning that Gomes isn’t a good stretch 4 because he can’t guard taller players, isn’t as tough as Brewer, and contributes very little to the team when his shot isn’t falling. This team needs a 3/4 who’s athletic and can play D, and Gomes is neither. He’s better as a spot-up guy on a team that can cover for him defensively.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 26, 2010 12:18 PM CDT up reply actions
Great question...
and one that has not yet been answered. Everyone is bashing Kahn for not maximizing value of Gomes contract, but no one seems to have any sense of what was offered (beyond Beasley….which i would have done, but I think I’m in the minority here).
It’s unfair to argue that Kahn didn’t utilize Gomes’ contract unless you can point to an offer that was passed on for Webster deal.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 2:25 AM CDT up reply actions
we may find out...
….with portland. too bad pritchard isn’t around to show us how it really could have been done.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
I was thinking that as well. Pritchard may have quickly flipped Gomes for something interesting, but value of Gomes’ contract evaporates on Wed.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 11:34 AM CDT up reply actions
Gomes will be waived
Portland already told Gomes he doesn’t need to fly there as he will be cut before June 30th.
by PhoenixWolf on Jun 26, 2010 11:45 AM CDT up reply actions
Interesting….are there any rules barring their ability to flip Gomes? If not, we need to seriously rethink how we evaluated Kahn’s use of this “asset”. People (myself included) ripped him for not taking better advantage of this contract. The reality may be that those great offers didn’t exist. That it wasn’t that great of an asset. If so, it’s borderline unacceptable how critical we (again, myself included) were of this trade.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 12:58 PM CDT up reply actions
I do think it needs to be remembered
that Kahn had to move Gomes by Wednesday. Sometimes it’s best just to make a good deal and move along, that’s what they did.
Beasley
I don’t like him or his game, particularly, but he’s unquestionably more talented than Webster. Given that we didn’t role the dice at #4, I would have much rather taken a gamble on Beasley, who could at least become an excellent shot-creator, over Webster.
Webster doesn’t do much for me at all. He seems to be a known quantity given that he’s been in the league 5 years (4 years of playing), and it’s nothing to write home about. Better than Wilkens/Sasha, sure, but he’s never put up a PER over 13..
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
Holy crap
early morning brain freeze. Roll the dice, please.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
could be a known commodity...
but at the same time, he came into the league at 18, and missed the entire 2008-09 season (when he was 21-22 years old) with a foot injury. It’s not too big of a stretch to expect better numbers if he puts together some healthy seasons, with more playing time, growing into his prime years. He’s not a star, but certainly a legitimate starting player. He’s got a beautiful stroke from outside, and has a reputation for playing tough defense.
Beasley would have been an interesting gamble that I would have supported. Not sure what exactly the possibility was there, in terms of trade details, though.
Yeah
Who knows. It’s all speculation. I’d kill to know what types of deals were on the table.
We’ll see about Webster. I want to love him, as he’s a Wolf, after all, I’m just not getting my hopes up. He doesn’t thrill, or even excite me in any way other than the fact that he’s not Sasha or Damien Wilkens. At least it’ll be easy for him to impress me..
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
This has been the first time all season
that I do NOT want a Jefferson trade. When we had Pekovic talking of coming over and when Cousins was the target in the draft I wanted Jefferson OUT! Now if they move him for an expiring I’ll be legitimately upset. His value can only go up at this point (ok… it could go down, but unlikely). We can use him for another year, even just up until the deadline and take 1/6 of his contract off the books for whoever takes him next. Surrounded with some good shooters, Jefferson could really get his value back. Especially if those shooters are also defenders.
Our current bigs (at most):
Darko
Love
Jefferson
Pekovic (I’d say stay in Europe another year, if he is ok with that and coming next year)
Bjelica
Seraphin (Just let me pretend…)
So we have 5 6 bigs right now at most and apparently Bjelica can play a few positions. Well I’m guessing the rookie bigs (including Pek) won’t be able to handle more than 30mpg between them to start with. So that leaves 56 minutes to split between 3 guys. Assuming Bjelica can play some minutes at SF or even SG, that leaves us with 66 minutes for the other 3 guys. That’s still plenty of time for Darko and Jefferson will have to suffer a few less minutes for Love. Personally, I don’t see Bjelica playing more than 10 minutes next year… and I’d be surprised, definitely right away, if Pek doesn’t have foul issues at the beginning of the year.
Point being, plenty of time to go around to let Jefferson’s value come back up. I changed my mind about him due to circumstances. It’s also one of the few advantages I saw of drafting Johnson over Cousins, so we might as well maximize value somehow.
Buckeyes are red, Wildcats are blue,
I wanted Evan Turner, But DeMarcus Cousins will do.
I get the impression
That Rambis really wants to institute his system this year and get the team playing the way he wants them to. Rambis seems to believe that Love is a much better fit for that style of play than Big Al.
For whatever reason, all these moves are about fit, fit, fit and they don’t seem to think Al fits. Given past history, they aren’t going to maximize value on a trade of Big Al, they are just going to make sure they get the right fit by unloading him.
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:04 AM CDT up reply actions
supply and demand
Right now Jefferson’s value is low because there is a plethora of teams with cap space and at least four PF on the free agent market. High supply lowers cost. After the free agent period is over and some teams get left behind Jefferson will be the best PF available via a trade. Supply decreases and Jefferson’s value goes up.
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jun 26, 2010 10:25 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Especially if a couple of these guys
re-sign with their old teams. If Boozer stays, there are going to be a couple desperate teams. It will also be big if the top-6 guys only go to a few different teams. That will create some desperation.
I think Boozer and Bosh are the least likely FAs to re-sign with their current teams.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions
Not to come from the Grizz to beat up on the T-Wolves (solidarity brothers), but...
I just don’t understand how you can justify the 16 and Gomes trade. Martell Webster has had 4 years to make something of himself, and he’s not become anything yet. This season was his best yet, and he only averaged 10 on 40% shooting for a good team.
Babbitt hasn’t done anything yet, I get that, but he certainly looks to have the potential to be an actual above average NBA starter. When I saw this deal I thought Gomes had a hideous contract or something. The contract was an asset too!
What’s the deal? How can this possibly be flipped as a good thing? Brewer is trouble, I get that, but even he has looked better than Martell Webster…
Straight Outta Vancouver - The Memphis Grizzlies DO Still Exist
people have wildly different opinion on Webster's potential
some see him as a SG who needs more playing time to excel.
Others are signing a refrain identical to yours.
by littleboxes on Jun 26, 2010 12:06 AM CDT up reply actions
That all made sense
until the last paragraph. Then you completely lost me.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jun 26, 2010 12:15 AM CDT up reply actions
Brewer is trouble, I get that, but even he has looked better than Martell Webster…
Webster is better than Brewer at literally every single aspect of the game except posterizing dunks and assists. Seriously, FG%, 3P%, FT%, TS%, Rebounds, Blocks. Webster also has a 3 inch longer standing reach, is stronger, is a more diverse defender, and is 9 months younger than Brewer.
You don’t seem to know much about Martell Webster.
FG%?
Brewer had a higher field goal percentage than Webster last year.
Not to quibble...
But Brewer did have a better FG% than Webster last year (with a higher usage rate), and also gets twice as many steals (even adjusting for pace). Brewer is 9 months older, but he’s only had 2 full seasons in the NBA to figure things out compared to Webster’s 4 (both have missed 1 season to injury)…at this point I’d be slightly more inclined to say that Webster is what he is and that Brewer is the one that still has some room to develop (look at how much his 3pt shot improved within the season last year for example). Webster posted a PER of 12.58 last year (his career best) compared to 12.15 for Brewer. Webster may have been trapped in a slow paced half-court team, but he’s been playing beside much better playmakers in Roy and Miller than anything Brewer has seen. I’m not saying Brewer is better, and I do think Webster was the better and more consistent defender last year (it probably doesn’t hurt being on a team that actually plays cohesively) but I don’t think the poster was completely out of line for suggesting that Brewer looked better to him.
Also, Brewer’s rebound rate was actually pretty good his rookie year, does anyone know why it fell so much last year?
by GregSandpaper on Jun 26, 2010 1:33 AM CDT up reply actions
Good question
I’m guessing because he played most of his minutes at the 2, which drew him farther away from the hoop than when he was playing the 3 his rookie year. He really was a good rebounder that year – even threw up a 20 rebound game or something crazy like that.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
It might be that he is still recovering. I think that’s why his defense suffered as well. Brewer rebounded well because he was able to slip and slide around box outs. If he lost some of quick it would be easier to keep a body on him.
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jun 26, 2010 10:31 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Both reasons make sense...
People always say wings are interchangeable…but, I remember when Durant finally moved from SG to his natural SF position (when Brooks took over) and he suddenly started rebounding in the NBA, so it would make sense if Brewer saw the opposite effect. If he is still recovering and can get back some of his slipperiness and regain some of his rebounding( regardless of position) that would be great news. The only other reason I could think of why his rebs might have fallen so much was that maybe he was leaking out a bit early on some defensive possessions so he could get some easy buckets on outlet passes, Carmelo used to do that a lot and his rebs really improved when he cut down on it.
by GregSandpaper on Jun 26, 2010 11:08 AM CDT up reply actions
Good thinking too
He was definitely getting out more in transition. Probably felt that his rebounding wasn’t as necessary with Love and/or Al always on the floor. On top of it, he was always guarding the best perimeter player instead of SF’s who are more likely to post him up.
I’m curious to see his role this year with Johnson and Webster out there. Maybe he can get back to rebounding more if Webster picks up the tougher defensive assignments.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
I'm still struggling with Webster playing the 2....
but if that’s the case, then Brewer seems like an almost ideal wing to come off the bench and backup these guys. He brings the type of energy and frenetic activity levels we often associate with good bench players.
by Rascal Flatts on Jun 26, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
+1
SF: Johnson/Brewer
SG: Webster/Brewer/Ellington
Certainly an upgrade.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 2:32 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, I am a little unsure of Webster at the 2 as well, his assist rates have been very very low so not only I am unsure about his ability to get things done off the dribble in the half court, I’m also not sure if he can add much playmaking next to Jonny who is a shoot first PG.
by GregSandpaper on Jun 26, 2010 2:36 PM CDT up reply actions
The addition of Kevin Love???
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Anyone have an idea
of when the intro press conference will be available to watch?
Buckeyes are red, Wildcats are blue,
I wanted Evan Turner, But DeMarcus Cousins will do.
monday
and it will be on the team’s website
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
That's a long wait :(
Thanks for the info though.
Buckeyes are red, Wildcats are blue,
I wanted Evan Turner, But DeMarcus Cousins will do.
SNP
I am a little surprised by how irritated you are about the draft! I love your site, and I’ve been reading everyday for over a year. When I saw your draft projections, and how highly you regarded Cousins, I knew you would not be happy if the wolves selected Johnson. But wow, I don’t think I have read such disparaging comments from you (and this site is based on the Timberwolves!) Not a rip, just an observation. Love your site still… any trips to OK soon? I don’t know if you remember but my dad is from Okmulgee, OK. We had a lengthy discussion about segregation and sports in OK a while back…
Hey...
…long time no see. I think the tone on this site right now mostly has to do with me having zero clue how to write about the front office right now . Check out this post over at A Wolf Among Wolves. Hits the nail on the head. There is something amazingly “off” with Kahn and it was with him before he came to the club and it’s still at the whisper level here in Minny but it exists enough where I’m fairly certain that anyone close to the club has a similar feeling. The problem is that the feeling gets expressed in insane ways by guys like Bill Simmons and Woj. They toss in things that are clearly made up. But they aren’t insane in the general sense that they are talking about something that does indeed exist at some level. The problem I’m having is that I don’t want the site to be a rumor page and I don’t know how to properly express the tone I believe exists with what is going on with a guy who is probably in waaayyyyyy over his head.
As for OK, we make a yearly trip down south each and every summer (the best time to go! ;) ) . It’s the I40 extravaganza from Memphis to OKC. We’re still debating on where we should go for the “fun” (i.e. non relative-visit) part of the trip. It’s down to Shiloh battlefield, Hot Springs, or Nashville and the Smokey Mountains. If anyone else has good suggestions in TN or AR, let me know.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Thanks for the link...
And for the explanation. A wolf among wolves is actually my second favorite wolves blog. I feel like I see where you are coming from much better now. I am also pleased to see that you want to run a reputable site, not just rumor mill central (even though I too get caught up in rumors). I think after all the years of seeing McHale blow it, year after year, after year, its frustrating to have the SAME mistakes happen with a new regime. However, I am not as upset as others about the draft. I actually really like Webster…and if the wolves do add a name through free agency, I think we will all feel much better about the draft.
Have fun in OKC. My dad is going to a 50 year reunion this summer in Okmulgee. And I think I might want to go. I hear hot springs is awesome fwiw! Thanks for responding. I appreciate the honesty. Canis Hoopus still rules in my book!
Thanks
Here’s the thing with Kahn: Whatever happens, it appears that Rambis and Ronzone have an input and that might help even things out in the long run. Kahn could be the biggest boob in the world when it comes to player selection, but if he is willing to allow group decisions, I think they could make it work.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
Does it sound like Rambis was pushing for Webster? I still think we overpaid and should have gotten a future 1st rounder out of KP on his way out the door.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 27, 2010 1:40 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree...
I think Ronzone was a huge hire for this squad. He obviously gave his input during the draft, and he scouted up Europe very well (which is nothing new for him). I also heard that Rambis was the one who was going ga ga for “The Definition” Martell Webster…So it would seem to me that Kahn is willing to listen to others, and make decisions as a group. As far as what they gave up for Webster… I would be interested to know if Ronzone/Rambis cautioned him in anyway? Did Rambis say "pull the triger, I can develop this guy.’ ? Just food for thought. Thanks for gettin back to me man! Much appreciated
Jeff and more
The Loser in the FA derby may be the next best chance after not getting a high pick + OK vet on draft night. But, I’m looking at the players’ dance cards and don’t see it.
With the wing position bettered, the next glaring need is C. Darko helps and we should sign him. So, I am thinking it’s an athletic, shot blocking PF/C plus a #1 pick next year. But, who? Tyson Chandler and a #1? That’s basically a 1 year rental, a lottoery pick (if lucky), and more cap space in 2011.
As for the draft, we didn’t land the superstar (perhaps) but we upgraded talent certainly. Wilkins, Pavs, Pech, Jawai, Cardinal, Tucker, and such dregs no longer on team. We sign Darko/Pek and/or another big and Hollins doesn’t play either. Better shooting/defending on the wing. Webster will start at the 2. He’s guarded the Kobe’s and can hit the 3. Johnson can hit the 3.
The Nets might be willing to part with Favors if they can’t land a big in free agency. They want to win sooner rather than later.
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jun 26, 2010 12:37 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Here's the trade...
Jefferson and Pek to NJ for Favors, Humphries, Dooling and Yi.
Also, we could just send them the rights to Pek, they send Yi to Golden State (3-point shooting power forward for Don Nelson and a strong asian fan base) and Randolph to Minnesota.
Either of those would make me feel a hell of a lot better about this off-season.
Check out Humdinger TV on YouTube.
http://twitter.com/HumdingerTV
Could even be
Pek to NJ for Yi, Humphries, and Favors. This frees up the cap space NJ needs, and they can sell Pek as a player either this summer or next. BTW, I’m pretty sure this only gets done if that gets LeBron and Bosh to NJ.
I wish, but I doubt that’s enough. I think any trade with NJ for Favors would need to include Al, Love or Wes.
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 2:10 PM CDT up reply actions
I think if a deal was going to have Favors for Wes
it would have been done pre-draft. I’m not sure it’s worth giving up Love for Favors unless more is involved. I didn’t include Jefferson because at this time I think NJ wants to pursue a FA power forward, but if they lose out on Boozer, Amare, Bosh…then Jefferson may be at the top of the list.
Why give up Brewer?
Brewer was arguably the best player on the team last year and was one of the few bright spots. Why would you just “throw him in” on a deal?
End of his rookie scale next season.
Do they sign him to a second contract?
Do they make him a RFA?
DO they let him go unrestricted a la Telfair?
If they trade him, it is someone else’s dilemma.
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
Yeah really
Do you want to throw 7 to 8 mil a year at Corey when you have Johnson, Webster, and Ellington filling those spots.
by Achilles Fang 1 on Jun 26, 2010 12:42 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I don't think it'd take that much
Shouldn’t take any more than it would to sign Gomes again, in which case it’s basically a matter of who would you rather have
Just let him play
Don’t need to pay him now, if he is still on the roster for another year we get 82 more games to see what he can do , and then after seeing what the market will pay, match a reasonable offer.
Brewer was the best player?
Maybe the most entertaining, but best? I suppose it’s arguable in that we could argue about it, but my vote would go to Love by a wide margin… which makes his limited minutes incredibly aggravating.
Cap Space
I imagine Bjelica is suiting up this season given he has been introduced, etc.
What is he worth?
And what is Darko worth?
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
If you mean what is Bjelica worth in a trade, I would say...
….don’t trade him
http://www.canishoopus.com/2010/6/25/1537712/looking-for-upside-meet-nemanja
As for Darko, he’s worth what he pay him. Right now, nothing. Later, who knows?
When I ask what he is worth
I was think more in terms if contract size.
My estimate is we have about 14.5m (sans cap holds) before we sign Darko and Bjelica. I guess I would expect us to stay under the cap as well.
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
by Auswolf on Jun 26, 2010 1:13 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Comparable to Dragic?
Dragic got a four year deal in the neighborhood of 6 million as a second rounder.
Two more positives
1. Wes Johnson is truly a gigantic leap forward in terms of cranking up the running game. One of the few bright spots last season was watching Brewer make some spectacular plays on the fast break. Wes is bigger, faster, longer, and stronger than Brewer, so just imagine some of the plays he’ll make in the open court.
2. Once Rubio comes into the fold, we are talking about having some pretty elite length and ranginess at the 1-3 slots. Rubio + Webster/Brewer + Johnson/Webster could eventually be very good defensively.
Also..
…..they got better from the field (although, we’ve played that game before and it didn’t work out with Miller, Foye, and Shaddy) and they have really started to build the groundwork for getting this to be a destination for good EL players.
Forever splitting the Cheechakos from the Sourdoughs
www.canishoopus.com
08-09 was such a disappointment
Here we thought we finally had shooters around Jefferson. McCants puts up some of the worst numbers ever for an NBA guard after a very solid campaign the season prior; Foye doesn’t warm up until January; and Miller refuses to shoot. Ugh.
by Rascal Flatts on Jun 26, 2010 4:38 PM CDT up reply actions
Johnson vs. Brewer
Other than weight, Johnson has little size advantage over Brewer (and was actually a half inch shorter on draft measurementments) at every metric coming out of college, and was a year and a half older coming out of college than Brewer was at that time.
It was/is one of the many complaints I have about drafting Johnson—it’s a likely slight improvement over a player who was already on the team. When you’re ineffective trading and in free agency and coming off a 15-win season and trying to give away your most productive player, using the 4th pick in a four-player draft to get a slight improvement on your third best player is a good way to get fired.
do you really think Wes is only a slight improvement over Corey?
by TWolvesFanInLA on Jun 26, 2010 3:09 PM CDT up reply actions
Yes, that's my first-year upside for him
especially since he’s going to be chasing NBA wings his own size around the court, rather than sagging back in a zone to defend against wings 3-5 inches shorter than he is—plus trying to learn whatever the hell Rambis decides to run for an offense.
Brewer will likely be a slightly better passer and defender, Johnson a better 3 pt. shooter and rebounder. The best thing about that is that at least one of them will get to do it against bench players, rather than real live NBA starters.
My concern with Wes
is his on the ball defense. I suspect he’s going to go through some pretty rough patches this season learning to defend SFs.
by Rascal Flatts on Jun 26, 2010 4:36 PM CDT up reply actions
Wingspan, weight, and vertical
He has a longer wingspan and better ups from a standstill position, which is why he blocked 1.8 per game in college vs. Corey’s .4 per game and is a much better rebounder. So not only was he longer in terms of the tape measure, but it also shows up in the stats when comparing them.
I’m not saying your conclusion is wrong, but there is hard data out there that suggests he’s going to play bigger than Corey. We’ll see if it actually happens or not.
by Rascal Flatts on Jun 26, 2010 4:34 PM CDT up reply actions
One interesting thing I think you forgot in your OP
but there is hard data out there that suggests he’s going to play bigger than Corey
Wes is undoubtedly bigger than Corey. He jumps higher and is probably faster running down the court (maybe? Don’t care to check). But I’d be willing to bet that there are a lot of nonstatistics that tell us that Corey plays a lot faster than Wes does/will.
Corey did a tremendous job last year of meeting the guy on the break all by himself. If we could get another person to do that with him (Wes has the ability, will he put forth the effort? Jonny didn’t.), we will automatically let fewer fast break points go by us. Instead of 1 on 1 (which is really difficult to stop a player 1 on 1 on the fast break), it could be 2 on 1 or even 2 on 2 is better.
Also, on offense Corey was obviously one of our (if not the) best fast break players. I’d really like to see how Kevin Love enjoys throwing outlet passes to Corey and Wes streaking up opposite sides of the floor after every rebound.
Buckeyes are red, Wildcats are blue,
I wanted Evan Turner, But DeMarcus Cousins will do.
You understand wingspan and standing reach, right?
Brewer: 6’8.25 wingspan, 8’7 standing reach
Johnson: 7’1 wingspan, 8’10 standing reach
I guess it depends on what your definition of “little” is. That’s not even mentioning the 20 lbs. Johnson has on Brewer.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 26, 2010 4:40 PM CDT up reply actions
Yeah, because 3 inches not being a little means that I think it is a lot. Obviously, I go in extremes like that. Never mind that 3-5 inches can sometimes (I repeat, sometimes) mean the difference between an assist and a turnover or a block and a made shot. Never mind that the back-to-back champions have built their front line around the idea of height and length and how many times that height and length led to offensive rebounds and layups.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 26, 2010 10:37 PM CDT up reply actions
I'd love to believe
that the only thing between the Wolves being a terrible team for the ages and them gaining respectability and the playoffs is that now they have a player who can stand flat-footed and reach the plates off the top shelf of the kitchen cupboard replacing one who used to have to stand on his tippy-toes to do so.
Now if we can just get Gheorge Muresan out of retirement to play point guard.
Talk about being snarky!
3 inch’s is a big deal. try standing next to some one who is 3 inches taller then you and tell my you dont have to tilt your head up quite a bit to look him in the eyes. If Love was just 1/2 inch taller (with out shoes) we wouldn’t be calling him short for his position. Wes still has a lot to prove that he was worthy of the 4 pick. I am on the side of the boat that is dissipointed that we passed on Cousins for him. still I do think his size (along with his shooting ability) does make him an upgrade on Brewer. and if he can defend that he will be a plus player at the 3 (even if he never becomes a perenial all star).
We certainly needed to upgrade our wing play over last year and we did that in this draft. that alone will make us a better team then last year. I don’t think we needed to be a better team then last year, that we would be better served by upgrading our over all talent, then simply making incremental upgrades. but that is were we are. and 3 inch’s is quite a big difference, even in the NBA
Will the Real Thor Please Stand Up ... ?
by the Real Thor on Jun 27, 2010 12:51 PM CDT up reply actions
Right, because I wasn’t responding to your original post comparing two players, I was talking about the overall goal of having the tallest team possible. You’re the one who said there weren’t any differences between them. As a basketball player, having arms that were three inches longer would make me a more-productive player. Nowhere did I say that more length is the only requirement or the most important requirement, but a guy who has it will have a better chance at tipping passes, grabbing rebounds, and blocking shots because those arms are more of a barrier to the opposition.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jun 27, 2010 1:52 PM CDT up reply actions
I agree with you
on the length being an issue—watching the Wolves play the Lakers in the last two years is like watching high school kids against eighth graders. I also like that part about Johnson over Brewer. I just don’t believe that the length of Johnson (heh) is even a primary advantage over Brewer—just an advantage. And I don’t think that replacing one player with another who seems to be fairly similar other than being a few inches longer and maybe ten pounds heavier is reason to get excited about improving a 15-win team.
I think for the next year or two, it’s going to be difficult for Johnson to make us forget Corey Brewer and all his faults.
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