Vision of things to come...
by mutleyil on Jun 26, 2010 12:24 AM CDT
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PrintIt’s been about 24 hours since the NBA draft came to an end. Amazing what that amount of time can do for your perspective. Heated reactions dissolve and rational ideas emerge. Frightening changes can miraculously be seen instead as areas of opportunity. Hell, you pretty much go through the “stages of grief” at hyperspeed – go to bed in denial and anger, wake up to acceptance. I don’t know if it’s our subconscious mind balancing things for us, or something more mystical, but I always seem to wake up with a better perspective on things than I had the previous day.
So, as I lay in bed last night, contemplating if my next Facebook status update should pay homage to great thinkers like Abe Lincoln (“Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to draft Jonny Flynn and Wes Johnson and remove all doubt”) or Ace Ventura (“David Kahn should die of gonorrhea and rot in hell”), I was pretty much in a bad place. The good news is that I woke up today with a vision of what David Kahn is trying to do. The not-so-good news is that I can’t exactly say I’m on board with it, should it come to pass that is…
If there was one thing that stood out to me with the Wolves’ draft last night, it was math…CAP Math. Say what you will about David Kahn, and his ability as a GM and a NBA talent evaluator. God knows I have, and his track record deserves it. He gets all aflutter over a firm handshake, nice body, and kind words; i.e. Jonny Flynn, Ryan Hollins, and (for now) Wes Johnson. And he clearly does not yet have a handle on the league-wide value of the assets he works so hard to accrue. But there is one thing he is not - a bad accountant. Every move last night was made towards freeing up space on THIS YEAR’s cap. As pissed as I am about wasting Gomes’ contract, it would have been worthless in the market for a serious sign-and-trade, as the voidable benefit basically expires the moment the free agents become available on JULY 1st. It needed to be moved for another flippable asset. That asset is now either Martell Webster or…pause for dramatic effect…Corey Brewer.
Yes, as unlikely as it sounds after last year, we now have to deal with the fact that we have WAY TOO MANY athletic swing guys to work into our rotation. Between Brewer, Johnson, Webster, and Hayward we now have the market cornered on 23-25 year old, long, athletic, 3-point shooting Swings. Why would Kahn create such a logjam at this position in ONE DAY? My theory is not hard to deduce, as anything with Kahn comes down to a simple solution:
WE ARE ACQUIRING AMARE STOUDEMIRE IN A SIGN-N-TRADE - Here are the “Mutley Facts”
· Amare is opting out
· Amare is a selfish prick looking for MAX money and will sign with ANYBODY that gives it to him
· No one else in the NBA is dumb enough to give Amare max money, except David Kahn, because of his fit with Rubio
· The amount of money it would take to do a sign and trade for Amare pretty much exactly equals the contract of Big Al plus either Brewer or Webster
· The Suns would love getting Al and Brewer or Webster for someone that’s gone anyway
· Rubio and Amare are pretty much made to play together
· Amare is a selfish douche that will suck in his first year with us because he got paid, then get magically better when Rubio gets here after the lockout
Have I missed anything? Here is your starting lineup for 2010:
PG – Sessions, Flynn (get Jonny ready for his eventual backup role to Rubio)
SG – Webster, Ellington
SF – Johnson, Hayward
PF – Love, Stoudemire
C – Stoudemire, Darko, Pek
The eventual post-lockout year after that :
PG – Rubio, Flynn
SG – Webster, Ellington
SF – Johnson, Hayward
PF – Love, Stoudemire
C – Stoudemire, Darko, Pek
What is the Canis Hoopus opinion of this? I’ve watched Stoudemire since he came into the league, and he is an incredible offensive player. I know Nash has made him, but he has developed into a great face-up jump shooter, plus he’s learned to use his quickness on the block. Pair him with Rubio, and the offensive game is all good. Defensively and rebounding-wise, he is an absolute travesty. I would NEVER give him the MAX, but I think that ship has sailed. This is the vision of our GM…what say you?
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Is it sad
that I’m more optimisic after reading this than before?
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jun 26, 2010 12:35 AM CDT reply actions
Just to be clear on where the "optimisim" comes from
He has a clear idea of what he wants, and will use his assets to get it.
No, he might lose some value in some transactions (Gomes/Webster,Amare/Max) but when its all said and done, that’s better than just having a bunch of assets.
Anyway, if we end up signing Amare, as you hypothesize, all will be forgiven. In reality, cap space just isn’t as valuable in Minnesota as it is other places. We’ll probably lose some value when using our assets. The point is to use ALL of them (draft picks, cap space, Jefferson) to make the best team possible. That team is better thanany I could imagine us ending up with going into the offseason.
"Pinch-bunters don't have a ton of value, even with the Twins"
by Steven Ellingson on Jun 26, 2010 12:43 AM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Sounds like...
You’re in favor of Amare?
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Seems reasonable
Supposedly the Wolves were after Amare at the trade deadline, and given the desire to build around Rubio I can see it. As someone who lives in Phoenix and attended about 20 Suns games this year, I can safely say Amare spent the second half of the year playing like a max player. Took over games like few can.
With that said, a max deal would be 6 years for about 130 million. Very, very scary. Of course, Jefferson and Brewer going out would actually even out the money for 2010-2011, leaving the Wolves with additional money to go after even more players.
Not sure if Sarver...
Would be on board with taking the $$$ back, but getting Jefferson and Brewer/Webster is a pretty good haul for a guy who’s gone already. Brew-Web totally fits their style, and Al gives them a low post scorer they have coveted forever. Plus, playing with Lopez is a good match for Al defensively.
Someone is going to make out trading for Al. People seem to forget how good he was (offensively), but he is about to emerge from the cloud of a 2 year injury.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
True about Sarver
But he said on the radio the other day that he is going to offer Amare max annual salary, but not years, so he is willing to spend some money. Bringing in Al and Brewer would not put the Suns over the luxury tax, and for all the talk of Sarver’s penny pinching, he has paid the luxury tax every year he has owned the team.
by PhoenixWolf on Jun 26, 2010 10:30 AM CDT up reply actions
different depth
Flynn/Sessions
Webster/Ellington/Hayward
Johnson/Bjelicia/Hayward
Stoudemire/Love/Bjelicia
Darko/Pekovic
Having said all that…I would rather Kahn just kiss Bosh’s behind and get him over here pronto!
I think this is an extraordinarily cynical view
And yet, I cannot disagree with some of the assessment. I hate Amare. I don’t want him on this team. At all. But it is fairly clear, especially after watching the Kahn and Rambis interviews on the Wolves site from Friday, that they still except to get one of the major FAs this off season. I genuinely hope it is not Amare.
Entirely Agree with Post
Option 1 is to move Jefferson + Brewer/Webster for Bosh
Option 1A is to move Jefferson + Brewer/Webster for Stoudamire
I personally think it will be Brewer, who I think is a man who does not fit into a position.
With either Bosh or Stoudamire you have a better front line rotation than Love, Darko, Jefferson, because you add in the athletic piece to the puzzle up front. People on this board who constantly rip Amare are simply wrong. He’s a great player, and would fit very well in a three-man rotation with Love and Darko, with one of the other Serbians filling in some time.
This strategy was undoubtedly in place prior to the draft and Cousins never fit within that strategy, and we badly needed to improve our wing play.
I think there will be another move as well using one of our current point guards, one of the other Serbians, and maybe try to eliminate Hollins contract, to bring in a legitimate scoring combo guard. Webster will start and guard the other teams best player, but we need scoring from the bench and I think we will look to acquire a Mayo, Foye, or similar type of player. With Memphis drafting Henry that creates a real log jam at SG, and they still lack a good PG. Flynn for Mayo.
Good point...
And one I meant to get, but didn’t. I don’t like the idea of giving Amare the max, but it would give us a very diverse frontcourt:
Love, Amare Pek, and Darko
If we need to go big, Amare at the 4 and Darko at the 5.
If we need to run, or space the floor, Love at the 4 and Amare at the 5.
If we want the other team bruised, Pek and Darko get lots of minutes.
I don’t include Hollins because, you know, he is a no-talent ass-clown.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Given the staggering amount of information
that has leaked out of the Front Office recently, I find it hard to believe this could be kept under wraps.
Is it possible? Why not, but this is posited around Amare being most interested in money and the status of being a “max” contract guy.
I suspect our destiny is to end up overpaying some 2nd or 3rd tier free agent like Salmons, Morrow or Ronnie Brewer.
"I was trying to focus on breathing," Milicic said. "I was just focusing on breathing so I didn’t die."
I grew up in PHX...
And still follow the Suns quite extensively. I guarantee Amare is all about the $$$. If we pay him the max, he will come here. As I’ve stated, I feel he is nowhere near a max player, but it definitely makes for interesing roster.
We will never win a championship this way, but Rubio/Webster/Wes/Love/Amare with Flynn/Brewer/Hayward/Pek/Darko on the bench could be a playoff team. It’s a one-and-done playoff team for 8 straight years (or as I now think of it…the Salad Days), but that actually sounds pretty good right now.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
Good post and comments. Here's another take...
As already stated, we’d be in good position to take Amare or Bosh. I’d prefer Bosh, but either way it would be cool.
However, we are also in a position to deal with NJ and get Favors. NJ would covet Bjelica and Pek. A trade of Al plus either of those guys might do it, or we include Martell/Corey, and probably have to take back some stuff.
We’d be better faster with the A/B plan (Amare or Bosh) but we might be better longer with Favors.
It’s interesting to see how we are positioned now, I did not see this coming, but we really are in a good place. If we keep Al, we have improved. If we trade Al for even minor assets, we have improved. If we sign a major FA, we have improved a lot, especially with Rubio coming over.
We still have 2 holes
A SG that can score (think Evan Turner, Joe Johnson)
A PF/C that can run (think Bosh, Amare, Favors)
The problem is it would be easier to get the PF/C during this offseason/ free agency with our cap space and Jefferson & Brewer as trade assets.
However, our next year’s lotto pick may be our last chance to add a difference maker. If we don’t luck out and land a top pick (Barnes) than we may not be able to get a good SG wing since next years draft is even more stacked with SF & PF and doesn’t have nearly any SG.
I believe if we could somehow get a SG this year through free agency & trades (not even sure who that might be), then next years draft is when we focus on PF since we will have more options there and I believe is an easier position to fill. Unless we can get either Bosh or Favors, i’d go for the SG now.
Why would Amare Leave Phoenix?
I would love to see the proposed deal materialize. However, if Phoenix ends up paying out max. salary money for Jefferson and Brewer, would they not prefer to spend that money on Amare? Would Amare not prefer to get max salary playing for Phoenix rather than Minnesota?
Phoenix won't give him 6 years
Right now, they are trying to give him a three year extension, which along with his player option for next year would be four more years at the max. If Phoenix was willing to even give him five years at the max, the deal would almost certainly be done by now.
Amare cares about money above all else. Its why he has had about 6 different agents during his career. If we can work out a deal for the max for him, he’ll come.
I don't really want Amare on the Wolves
I fear he is a guy that will regress upon signing a max deal, especially with another team. If he stays in Phoenix, his teammates can probably keep him motivated to win. This is also why I think Sarver would take Amare for six years vs. Jefferson for three. He knows they can win and pretty much break even financially for a couple more years with Amare. Jefferson won’t attract fans. He can keep Amare, ride out the last few years of Nash’s career, then trade Amare when his contract is half done.
Sarver won't give Amare a 6 year max deal.
I can guarantee that. If he was willing to offer that kind of money, an extension would have already happened.
The Suns really don’t need to worry about attracting fans. The Suns are by far the most popular of the four major sports teams in Phoenix, and their attendance has always been very strong. This is where Sarver gets criticized; he spends into the luxury tax every year, but Phoenix fans feel with the attendance he could spend quite a bit more.
no he does not. Sarver is a cheap ass.
selling 1st round picks year after year. they could have had ding and rondo
Where is the disagreement?
Suns pay the tax every year, and yes Sarver is still cheap. They could have had ding dong deng. Wolves could have had Granger and Brandon Roy. Bad decisions are bad decisions.
by PhoenixWolf on Jun 27, 2010 10:59 AM CDT up reply actions
Trouble is when the Wolves young core (Rubio, Love?, maybe Johnson (insert age joke here)) are ready to rock, Amare’s going to be a 29/30 year old with a lot of mileage on him.
This is a bit of concern of mine in general if Kahn’s looking to go splashy this summer. It’s not like this is Jersey or NY, where expectations are sky high for a headline signing. I’d prefer to use the cap space to take on some moderate contracts that come off the books in under 2-3 years if I could also accumulate as much young talent as I could (e.g., Favors + some contract). Then let the core gel before making any kind of enormous commitment, when the contracts that needed to be eaten to get the Derrick Favors of the world also happen to be coming off the books.
In the meantime, I think Wolves fans would be content if the team made more sense than it did these past few seasons, with more noticeable upside. I think fans could get behind watching Derrick Favors, imagining him rocking with a guy like Rubio surrounded by a bunch gazelles on the perimeter. To be fair, would that generate MORE fans? Maybe not, and that might be their #1 concern right now.
The risk with Favors...
Is off the charts though. I just don’t see much more than a Tyrus Thomas-like career for him. His offensive game needs so much work.
Amare carries risk as well, but it’s attitiude and effort risk…not a question of talent. I really don’t want either of them for the respective costs.
"I'm gonna make you cry...I'm gonna make you cry and dip my cookie in your tears!!!"
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