I talked to three other NBA executives who use various forms of statistical analysis to rank their players to get a feel for what they're seeing. The GMs agreed to share their statistically based top 10s as long as I didn't disclose the team and as I long as I didn't divulge the statistical methods they were using.
This group hedges closely with Hollinger's findings and even a bit closer to our Top 10 in our Top 100. Each team had an outlier that the other two teams didn't have. One team had Cole Aldrichranked in the top five. Another had Manny Harris and Gordon Hayward in their top 10.
A few things to note. The first is that, by statistical measurements at least, it looks like Greg Monroe should be going higher than No. 9 -- where we have him projected in our mock draftright now. The same holds true for Henry, who we currently have at No. 15.
The love keeps on coming for Luke Babbitt, who I believe is now seriously in the discussion at No. 9 in Utah.
One guy who isn't getting any love is Ekpe Udoh. That's because Udoh is already 23 years old and virtually all of the stat gurus agree that it's a problem. Players who are older than 22 when they are drafted have terrible track records in the NBA. That works against him in virtually every formula out there.
I then aggregated those lists and here's a look at what they came up with:
Metric-minded GMs' Top 10
Draft prospects as ranked by our three stat-head GMs.
|2.||Derrick Favors||Georgia Tech|
|3.||Evan Turner||Ohio State|
|8.||Al-Farouq Aminu||Wake Forest|