According to Win Shares and Wins Produced, here's what our team produced last year :
|Player||Position||Minutes||Win Shares||Wins Produced|
(All Stats are from BasketballReference.com or from Andres Alvarez' Wins Produced Test Suite. Positions are from Basketball Reference, though I fudged if someone was listed as Guard-Forward or Forward-Center and just picked one of the two.)
Both Win Shares and Wins Produced are box-score aggregate stats, with all the associated caveats (do they take into account defense? do they overvalue rebounding? etc.), but I feel like it's easier to use a stat like the number of wins a player allegedly contributes to their team to extrapolate a prediction, than it is to do the same from say, eFG%.
With that in mind, I took Stop-n-Pop's suggestion of likely line-ups, made a best-guess estimate at how minutes might be allocated, and came up with a prediction for next year (cliffhanger ending after the jump).
|Player||Position||Min./Gm||WS/48||Wins Created||WP/48||Wins Produced|
* = Starter
I used career or past-five-year averages to generate the numbers per 48 minutes. So this is a conservative estimate. Generally players improve their first few years in the league, so we can probably assume increased production from Flynn, Ellington, Love and Beasley. I also plugged in the rookies at half of the production of an average NBA player (average Wins/48 for both stats is .10), which might be a little harsh for Johnson and Pekovic, and may be a little generous for Haywood.
Still, a conservative estimate of 25 wins is a 10-win improvement. And if the young players continue to mature, thirty wins is likely.