What Win Shares and Wins Produced have to say about next years' Wolves

According to Win Shares and Wins Produced, here's what our team produced last year :


Player Position Minutes Win Shares Wins Produced
Kevin Love Forward 1714.00 4.90 12.46
Al Jefferson Forward 2463.00 4.60 7.29
Damien Wilkins Forward 1585.00 1.90 3.86
Ramon Sessions Guard 1732.00 1.10 1.95
Ryan Gomes Forward 2210.00 2.40 1.06
Jason Hart Guard 5.00 0.00 0.00
Alando Tucker Guard 25.00 0.00 -0.05
Wayne Ellington Guard 1384.00 0.40 -0.12
Darko Milicic Center 614.00 0.60 -0.31
Nathan Jawai Forward 412.00 0.30 -0.54
Oleksiy Pecherov Center 447.00 0.10 -0.60
Jonny Flynn Guard 2339.00 0.10 -0.68
Brian Cardinal Forward 267.00 0.40 -0.72
Sasha Pavlovic Forward 877.00 -1.20 -1.81
Corey Brewer Forward 2482.00 1.00 -2.69
Ryan Hollins Center 1223.00 1.20 -3.75
17.80 15.35


(All Stats are from or from Andres Alvarez' Wins Produced Test Suite. Positions are from Basketball Reference, though I fudged if someone was listed as Guard-Forward or Forward-Center and just picked one of the two.)

Both Win Shares and Wins Produced are box-score aggregate stats, with all the associated caveats (do they take into account defense? do they overvalue rebounding? etc.), but I feel like it's easier to use a stat like the number of wins a player allegedly contributes to their team to extrapolate a prediction, than it is to do the same from say, eFG%.

With that in mind, I took Stop-n-Pop's suggestion of likely line-ups, made a best-guess estimate at how minutes might be allocated, and came up with a prediction for next year (cliffhanger ending after the jump).


Player Position Min./Gm WS/48 Wins Created WP/48 Wins Produced
Johnny Flynn Guard* 28.00 0.00 0.10 -0.01 -0.67
Luke Ridnour Guard 20.00 0.09 2.90 0.10 3.25
Martell Webster Guard* 28.00 0.07 3.30 0.03 1.63
Corey Brewer Guard 14.00 0.01 0.31 0.00 0.10
Wayne Ellington Guard 6.00 0.01 0.14 0.00 -0.04
Wesley Johnson Forward* 28.00 0.05 2.39 0.05 2.39
Michael Beasley Forward 18.00 0.09 2.71 0.02 0.62
Lazar Haywood Forward 2.00 0.05 0.17 0.05 0.17
Kevin Love Forward* 36.00 0.13 8.06 0.28 17.34
Michael Beasley Forward 12.00 0.09 1.80 0.02 0.41
Darko Milicic Center* 28.00 0.05 2.44 -0.02 -0.81
Nikola Pekovic Center 18.00 0.05 1.54 0.05 1.54
Ryan Hollins Center 2.00 0.07 0.24 -0.12 -0.41
240.00 26.10 25.50

* = Starter

I used career or past-five-year averages to generate the numbers per 48 minutes. So this is a conservative estimate. Generally players improve their first few years in the league, so we can probably assume increased production from Flynn, Ellington, Love and Beasley. I also plugged in the rookies at half of the production of an average NBA player (average Wins/48 for both stats is .10), which might be a little harsh for Johnson and Pekovic, and may be a little generous for Haywood.

Still, a conservative estimate of 25 wins is a 10-win improvement. And if the young players continue to mature, thirty wins is likely.

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