The fastest way to 30 wins
by biggity2bit on Jul 2, 2010 1:33 PM CDT
43 comments
Premise: the team is going to roll with Martell Webster and Wes Johnson as our starting perimeter players. Jonny and Ramon perform similar to last year. Love becomes our PF and Darko our C.
Conclusion: in general, the upgrade defensively at SG and SF will net this team 10 - 15 more wins next year. Reasoning below.
This is a chart showing the correlation between wins (the X-axis) and point differential (Y-axis).
As you can see, the correlation is quite strong. I believe that improving our defense is the fastest and most surefire way to improving our win total. Enter Martell Webster and Wes Johnson.
Last year, per 82games, our SGs and SFs were terrible.
| Position | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| PG | 18.0 | .457 | 5.9 | 33% | 4.8 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 0.1 | 2.7 | 21.0 | 14.6 |
| SG | 17.5 | .478 | 3.8 | 28% | 5.3 | 3.3 | 3.0 | 0.4 | 3.5 | 19.3 | 12.2 |
| SF | 13.6 | .468 | 3.2 | 21% | 7.0 | 3.4 | 2.3 | 0.5 | 4.0 | 15.1 | 11.5 |
| PF | 18.2 | .501 | 5.6 | 40% | 13.9 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 4.4 | 22.7 | 20.4 |
| C | 17.3 | .483 | 5.0 | 46% | 11.9 | 2.5 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 5.9 | 20.1 | 15.4 |
Opponent Production by Position
| Position | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| PG | 16.9 | .497 | 4.5 | 21% | 4.9 | 10.5 | 3.5 | 0.3 | 3.7 | 20.5 | 18.3 |
| SG | 17.2 | .532 | 4.5 | 27% | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 21.6 | 17.3 |
| SF | 17.8 | .514 | 5.0 | 28% | 7.3 | 4.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 3.5 | 22.5 | 17.9 |
| PF | 18.4 | .524 | 5.0 | 36% | 12.2 | 2.8 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 5.1 | 23.1 | 19.8 |
| C | 14.6 | .562 | 5.1 | 51% | 13.6 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 5.6 | 20.0 | 19.5 |
Net Production by Position
| Position | FGA | eFG% | FTA | iFG | Reb | Ast | T/O | Blk | PF | Pts | PER* |
| PG | 1.0 | -.040 | 1.4 | 12% | -0.1 | -3.1 | -1.0 | -0.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -3.7 |
| SG | 0.2 | -.054 | -0.8 | 1% | -0.2 | -1.9 | -0.5 | 0.0 | -0.9 | -2.4 | -5.1 |
| SF | -4.2 | -.046 | -1.9 | -7% | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.0 | -0.3 | -0.6 | -7.4 | -6.4 |
| PF | -0.2 | -.023 | 0.7 | 4% | 1.7 | 0.4 | -0.3 | -0.5 | 0.7 | -0.5 | +0.6 |
| C | 2.6 | -.079 | -0.1 | -5% | -1.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.0 | -4.1 |
In the most basic analysis, our 2's and 3's gave up nearly 10 points a game, whereas everyone else was neutral. Our point differential was -9.6 last year. Coincidence? Maybe, but I think there's something there as well.
Corey Brewer improved tremendously last year, especially as an offensive player. However, defensively he (and the TWolves) reminded me a lot of my kickball team last night - one guy running around trying to back up first base (that is, covering his teammates) while everyone else just stood around and watched what was happening. We lost by a lot last night and in no small part because so many of our players just stood and watched what was happening. By the time they saw that they should have run to backup first or second (or wherever) in case of an errant throw it was too late. That was Corey Brewer in a nutshell last year - the only guy trying to cover for his teammates. The result, as we can see above, was not pretty.
Martell Webster, by most accounts, is pretty solid defensively. Per basketballprospectus:
NBAPET Win Metrics
| AGE | Year | TM | oPOSS | PC | PL | dPOSS | PA | PS | dMULT | dQUAL | WP | WP82 | WP3K |
| 22 | 2009 | Portland Trail Blazers | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1.025 | 0.799 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
| 23 | 2010 | Portland Trail Blazers | 660 | 740 | -20 | 762 | 857 | -25 | 1.030 | 0.000 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 7.7 |
I've highlighted and italicized the important metric here - dMult (the percentage that the player he guarded produced above and beyond their typical production. So in this case Webster's guy produced 103% of his normal numbers - not bad for a guy routinely guarding the best offensive player on the other team nightly).
Let's compare this to Corey Brewer:
NBAPET Win Metrics
| AGE | Year | TM | oPOSS | PC | PL | dPOSS | PA | PS | dMULT | dQUAL | WP | WP82 | WP3K |
| 23 | 2009 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 89 | 96 | 2 | 109 | 117 | 3 | 0.952 | 0.970 | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.4 |
| 24 | 2010 | Minnesota Timberwolves | 1054 | 1022 | 129 | 985 | 1291 | -214 | 1.199 | 0.000 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 5.7 |
Big difference. Corey's guy produced, on average, 119.9% better than his typical numbers! Now, is Corey really this bad? No, but again I think he was on an island out there and tried to do too much, and this is a reflection of that.
So what about our SFs? Wilkens and Gomes played the majority of our minutes there last year, and their dMULT's were 1.083 for Wilkens and 1.139 for Gomes. Again, not good. They got beat defensively too much, and couldn't score enough offensively to offset it (they gave up, on average, 7.4 points per game!!!)
Enter Wes Johnson. Long, athletic, from Syracuse. Oh no... Nah, I'm just kidding, sort of. Despite coming from Syracuse, NBA types almost universally are high on Wes' defensive abilities. We all know he can shoot, so if he can become even average defensively it should be a big upgrade for us.
Last year our SFs weren't good shooters, (.468 eFG), and didn't shoot very much (13.6 FGA) or score very much (15.1 points). Comparatively, our Centers shot .483 eFG on 17.3 FGA, netting 20.1 points. Based on the moves in the draft and FA thus far, this is where I see the biggest change occurring offensively.
IF we truly are going to start running more we should get about the same number of possessions as last year per game (96). There are two big, inter-related differences though: by substituting out Big Al for Darko (and Pek), the Wolves are taking out a player who's a volume scorer and replacing him with a hesitant shooter in Darko (which is good - he's bad at shooting), and a very efficient scorer in Pek. Pek and Darko will probably equal more shots than Al, but not that many more. Pek efficiency should result in more points per FGA for the Darko/Pek grouping versus Al.
The second difference is between Martell Webster and Wes Johnson and Brewer/Wilkens/Gomes. With Al gone, the focus of the team is, in my opinion, going to be recentered on the perimeter. A rotation of Webster/Wes/Ellington/Brewer is going to put up more points, more efficiently, and with significantly better defense than a rotation of Brewer/Ellington/Wilkens/Gomes. My expectation, which I think is reasonable, is for the SG position to be a wash - over the course of the season we'll score as much as we give up. Let's be conservative and say it goes from -2.4 ppg to -.4, a + 2 ppg improvement.
For the SF position, it all depends on how well you think Wes is going to do. Let's say he takes Gomes' minutes and plays 30 mpg. Gomes scored 10.9 points on 9.6 shots last year. I think Wes is going to be given every opportunity to shoot more, so let's say he's at 12-13 shots a game netting, maybe, 14-15 ppg? Combined with his improved defense (we're assuming), and the improved depth (Brewer, Webster, or Lazar at SF is going to be much better offensively than Wilkens), and I think we could reasonably expect an improvement of + 3-4 ppg in differential at the SF position (being conservative). If all other positions can duplicate what they did last year, the combined improvement in scoring differential at the SG and SF position is around 5-6 ppg.
Now, the quick caveat - this analysis is intentionally broad, and as such doesn't factor in a ton of detailed stuff. My intention is to outline how bad our production was last year at the SG/SF positions, and how there is a very realistic opportunity of a + 4-6 ppg improvement between those two positions. The improvement in talent level and more importantly in depth at those two positions is what is key. Corey Brewer goes from starting SG to backup SF. Gomes was efficient, but couldn't defend SFs well at all. Wes can be counted on to duplicate Gomes' offense and should be a clear upgrade defensively. The improvement necessary for + 3-4 points in scoring differential doesn't require these guys to be superstars because, to be quite frank, what they're competing against was actually that bad. It's like the improvement we got from Darko over Hollins - it's less about how great Darko was and more about how poor Hollins was.
So if we can expect the other positions to net about the same differential as last year (which is around zero between the PGs, PFs, and Cs, which I think doable), then our scoring differential can be expected to improve from -9.6 to perhaps -5.5 to -3.5. If you consult the chart at the top of the post you will see that that puts us solidly in the mid 20 to low 30 win range, (or to use the actual numbers from last year, a minimum of 25 wins to as high as 32 wins).
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Quick note
Forgot to outright say this in the post – with the expected departure of Al Jefferson, I expect the PF/C spots to take fewer shots overall compared to last year, with the difference being given to the SG/SF. I’m not smart enough to figure this kind of thing out, but part of me wonders if we’ll even average 1-3 possessions more per game due to the improved athleticism (steals, blocks, etc.), or if we’ll simply convert more attempts because we’ve upgraded our shooters at the SG/SF, and removed a volume scorer in Al and replaced him with Pek and Darko (who takes comparatively fewer shots, commensurate with his shooting %‘s). So all in all, our scoring should go up by virtue of simply having better shooters (’makers’, as Rambis calls them) on the floor.
It’s hard for me to not get too rosy about all this – that we could win 35 + just because of better defense and more efficient scoring. One team had a -3 scoring differential and won 32 games, another team had a -6.4 differential and won 29. That’s a lot of variability. What is interesting, though, is that once you get close to the -2 range you’re pretty much at the break even point. There’s a jump between the -3.5 and worse teams, and those that -2 and better. For evidence, a 37 win team was at -2.5 last year, the two 40 win teams were at -1.8 and -1.5, and a 41 win team was at -1.6.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
styx is the mullet of bands, it's a true fact.
business in the front and a party in the back.
Looks like that’s what the Wolves are going to be like too. Business in the front court with Darko, Love and Pek doing dirty work. Then the back court will be a party. A huge rotation at the SG/SF positions and a lot of shots.
The wolves are the Mullet of the NBA. (oddly enough, this might not be a bad thing)
by 123farve567-612 on Jul 2, 2010 1:53 PM CDT up reply actions
You know
I was wondering how/if you were going to tie that together with the post, but you actually did a really good job. Does that mean the watching the Wolves next year will be the same, never talked about guilty pleasure that listening to Styx is?
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
Sounds like it to me. . . for some.
I don’t believe it’s bad to watch and cheer for a bad NBA team. I’m not going to feel guilty at all. But yes, listening to Styx. . .would be a guilty pleasure.
by 123farve567-612 on Jul 2, 2010 2:53 PM CDT up reply actions
Considering how long Wolves fans have been wandering through hell...
it’s about time we found the river.
Illinois: My governor is a bigger crook than your governor
by John H IL on Jul 2, 2010 2:08 PM CDT up reply actions 1 recs
Speaking of signature lines, John
Blago and wife spent 400k on sartorial pleasures? Imelda Marcos would be impressed.
"Get your facts first, then you can distort them as you please."
Mark Twain
We know how to pick 'em in Illinois
…but I can honestly say I’ve never voted for any of the three governors that went to jail from here. :)
Illinois: My governor is a bigger crook than your governor
They should sign Jared Allen
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Jul 2, 2010 2:41 PM CDT up reply actions
Sadly, I thought he’d cut his off this off-season.
Illinois: My governor is a bigger crook than your governor
He said he's growing it back for the season
he shaved it for his wedding
"Baseball is the only major sport that appears backward in a mirror" ~George Carlin
by thewild_viking_twins on Jul 2, 2010 9:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Great great work
And this isn’t even factoring in how our system will likely improve both Wes and Webster, or how Cousins might have just ticked off Rambis and gotten benched for 25 minutes a game
Blind leading the Blind?
So the system will improve Wes but Cousins would have failed in it? What proof is there of this? Talk about a ridiculous claim.
Where did I say Cousins would fail in the triangle?
I said he might fail because he might tick of Rambis. Y’know, like Love did last year?
Seriously, some people’s perception of me is making you guys put ridiculous words in my mouth
"Seriously, some people’s perception of me is making you guys put ridiculous words in my mouth"
Read that back to yourself. So silly.
by Miss Test Pattern on Jul 2, 2010 3:54 PM CDT up reply actions
It might actually be true in this case
Actively looking for red flags since my 5th grade traveling team
Love + Al is what ticked Rambis off
No defense. Cousins would have to be as bad as Al defensively to tick Rambis off.
by Dave T on Jul 2, 2010 7:06 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
hopelessly myopic!
Set a record by getting banned for the 8th time!
After rehab I saw the light and promise to be kinder and gentler!
Probation is a very slippery slope!
Loud Noises!
"It's tough to make predictions, especially about the future." -- Yogi Berra
by Wile E Coyote on Jul 2, 2010 2:27 PM CDT up reply actions
If only you could count on stats...
.. to lead a team or make a clutch FT with the game on the line.
I like numbers and all, but this is just a part of the story, of course.
Corey Brewer
Please, let us realize that Corey Brewer will never be a key contributor to a winning team in this league, EVER!! Co Co has zero potential to be a dominant player in the NBA. He has athleticism for weeks but maybe the worst basketball IQ I have ever seen from a professional player in any sport. I have trouble understanding why I am one of few who realizes this. The importance of a role player, which is the key to success especially in basketball, is that they know where they are supposed to be on the court in all scenarios. Corey could never understand this, hes terrible without the basketball, he can not dribble and is completely out of control with the basketball, not to mention has a terrible trigger finger. I will say that as a Timberwolf fan however I do enjoy watching him and those chopstick legs and dumb smirk run around like a chicken with his head cut off and occasionally dunk over Derek Fisher. If the poll posted here had 10 scenarios instead of 2 with Corey Brewer attached to the first 9, I would choose the 10th 10 times out of 10. He seems like a nice guy though!
Strong statement
Corey Brewer is hardly the worst basketball IQ on our team, much less any professional sport. He often gets himself in a position to take the right shot or drive to the net, he just hasn’t had the physical ability to carry it out.
by midlife crisis on Jul 2, 2010 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions
Worst BBIQ?
Have you seen Ryan Hollins? Pretty much everything you said could apply to him, but not Corey. The problem with Corey isn’t that he doesn’t know where to be on the court (in fact, he puts himself in position for good shots, and I thought he made a lot of intelligent cuts within the offense), his problem is that he doesn’t make a high enough percentage of his good looks. And on defense, as has already been discussed on this board, a lot of the times he appeared to be out of position were a result of him trying to scramble and cover other player’s mistakes.
No, he’s not going to be a superstar but he definitely has a chance to be good enough to be an important role player on a good team.
hmmm
is he putting himself in good position for open shots or are other players realizing that they can cheat off of him because he can’t shoot and then sometimes he thinks wait a second there is an entire lane in front of me, maybe i should go to the basket. I love the fact that I need supporting evidence to prove Brewers basketball smarts, sometimes there are more than numbers to basketball.
i too
have failed to understand why so many wolves fans overlook brewer’s lack of prerequisite NBA skills. i get that he tries hard – but it doesn’t matter because he can’t shoot and doesn’t have the physical tools to play his position in the NBA.
I’ve always thought Minnesota fans wildly over-rate hustle players, “good guys” “glue” guys ect. blah blah blah. Talent trumps all, everything else is overrated 99 percent of the time.
Bottom line: Corey Brewer simply isn’t good.
Also we passed on Noah to draft him, which doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough when recounting the wolves long, long record of draft failures.
Couple points
First, Mr. Can’t Shoot Brewer has upped his shooting percentages each year (his TS% and eFG% – the two metrics I personally care most about). He also set the Timberwolves consecutive games with a three pointer record, which is worth something (maybe not much, but again it’s better than Peeler or Hoiberg). Not sure why y’all are so down on Corey. It’s just hard for me to take you seriously when comments such as:
I love the fact that I need supporting evidence to prove Brewers basketball smarts
Yup, otherwise you’re just spouting out your opinion and judgments in a forum centered around facilitating meaningful basketball conversation backed up by evidence, some of which goes beyond stats. At least make a token effort at evidence if you want most of us to really consider what you’re opining.
Also we passed on Noah to draft him, which doesn’t get mentioned nearly enough when recounting the wolves long, long record of draft failures.
This brings me to my second point – cherry picking the best player you can out of a draft that your team passed on to prove a preconceived notion. Now I understand that Noah was in consideration for us at that slot, but on the plus side we didn’t draft Brandan Wright, Spencer Hawes, Acie Law, Julian Wright, Nick Young, or Sean Williams. Or how about the three guys who went right ahead of Brewer – Mike Conley, Jeff Green, and Yi Jianlian? Man, those teams’ GMs sure messed up with epic failures on those picks. Mike Conley’s career best PER is 14.3, Jeff Green’s is 13.9, and Yi’s is 12.3. Yup, Corey’s 12.1 PER sure looks terrible next to those guys. Thank god OKC has Presti, or should I say Durant? Green and Harden (PER of 14) sure are superstars in the making.
Sorry, got on a bit of a rant there. Point is – give me a reason to put any stock into what you’re saying. I don’t need cherry picked stats or draft selections – ya, Noah’s turned out really well, and 8 other teams passed on him, one team twice (thank you Presti). Compared to his immediate draft slot peers, though, Corey Brewer has neither been better or worse than them thus far. He used to be a bad shooter, but arguably he’s league average right now.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
I strongly disagree
He used to be a bad shooter, but arguably he’s league average right now.
Go to Hoopdata. Sort player stats by all swingmen playing more than 20 mpg and more than 20 games this past season. Of the 97th listed SG and SF, Corey ranks 87th in TS%. And this is following his breakthrough season. His TS% of 50.3% is well below the league average for his position of 54.7%. Comparitively speaking, both in terms of rank and distance from the mean, he is as bad a shooter as Ray Allen or Anthony Morrow are good shooters.
I don’t care where he was drafted, or how the Wolves got him. The point is that he is a poor offensive player and does not deserve to be on the floor. He is not an answer for this team.
In the half- court, I agree with you.
Put Rubio at PG and Webster next to him, and Brewer makes the all-star team. Run and gun, baby.
by Dave T on Jul 2, 2010 7:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I thought of another way to look at where we're going
Here’s an interesting comparison that I think highlights the philosophical differences/camps that are being posted/argued around here with regularity lately.
Which team has higher upside:
Bassy, Foye, Miller, Love, Cousins
(or Flynn/Rubio, Webster, Brewer, Love, Cousins)
or
Sessions/Rubio, Webster, Wes, Love, Darko?
We were teased by those teams in the past, especially the 10-4 in January team. Al was hot, Love was a revelation, Foye was dropping dagger threes and getting timely blocks, and Miller was facilitating and no-look dishing (OK, hard to get that excited about SoDak’s greatest no-look dishing). You substitute Cousins out for Al, and – at least for me – I start to believe just a little that perhaps that team could’ve gone somewhere. The whole inside/outside thing might’ve worked. Of course, it’s all dependent on Cousins developing into a monster on offense and pretty damn good on defense, which also of course was the downfall of why it didn’t work with Al.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
Also would have been very dependent on making up for a lack of athleticism
Kahn may go overboard with it, but he is right that we needed to get more athletic. Bassy, Foye, Miller, Love and Jefferson is an athletic disadvantage at every position (and a size disadvantage at 4 of them as well….) We would have needed to replicate the Celtics’ defense to get by with that, and with Al and Love as our bigs, that wouldn’t have been possible
Great write-up
I don’t think I had quite processed how terrible we were on the wings. I really hope the stats are right, and that if we give up Al, we won’t be in the same hole in the middle that we are outside now. It’s a heck of a lot harder to find an adequate big than it is a wing, which is why I think passing on Cousins could be a huge mistake.
Hole in the middle
It’s going to be hard to offset Al’s production. At best my hope is for Darko to do what he did for awhile last year, which is not to produce much himself but to keep the other guy from producing much as well. The wrinkle for us this year is what kind of effect will Pekovic have? Can he be better than Love was off the bench last year? Or is that not the point?
At the PF spot I see Love and Big Al as fairly interchangeable – vastly different offensive games but very similar results. In fact, I like general overall makeup of our three primary bigs – Love’s got a great all around game, Darko has terrific size and good passing ability, and Pek is an efficient low post scorer with legit size. Ryan Hollins gets the default pogo-stick role, one I hope is given to Favors somehow. What’s nice is how all three big guys can play together – Darko’s defense, passing, and court vision compliments all three, Love’s rebounding and perimeter game makes up for the weakness of the other two, and Pek’s scoring and muscle down low can give relief to the other two. I’m excited to see what they can do this year together.
Fundamentally, though, this team is shifting from a focus down low to a focus on the perimeter, and I think it’s going to take awhile for that change to occur. It’s like when the Vikings shifted from a downfield offense to a dominant running game. There were quite a few games where I was shouting at my TV about why weren’t they taking shots downfield?! For better or worse we are counting on Wes, and I hope he’s willing to stake a claim to this team as his own. We don’t need a passive Wes, we need an aggressive player trying to lead by example.
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
I don't think this will be Wes's team
SF who can defend and shoot, but not create, are probably not going to be the leader on a team. All I want from Wes is to be able to hit the shots someone (Rubio, hopefully) makes for him, and to be solid in the rest of his game.
I hope you’re right about our three bigs. I’m optimistic that Pekovic can be efficient down low, but it’s highly doubtful he’ll be the rebounder, or even defender, that Al is/was. Darko, well, he’s still got room to improve, but he is big and can alter shots. I think Love can shine playing with other good players. Whether we’ll be close enough to that, well, I don’t know.
I see this team looking a bit like Houston next year
Or at least, they should, if they want to win some games.
Houston lacks low-post scoring outside of the occasional Scola running hook shot. Their offense revolves around having some a bunch of solid 3pt shooters who all have the green light to bomb away then hoping that the increased efficiency of the 3 leads them to wins. Flynn can play the Aaron Brooks roll (very similar players), while Wes/Webster/Brewer/Love all camp outside and let it fly every time they’re open. Pek/Darko will score down low when the opportunity presents itself, but mostly we should be seeing a lot of open 3’s off of all the ball movement generated by our offense. That’d be a fairly entertaining team, honestly.
Problem with that is that Houston is a fantastic defensive team and we probably won’t be great (though we might be OK with Darko and the added athleticism). We might have a leg up on them offensively, though, as Webster/Wes/Love has the makings of an excellent 3pt shooting squad, and we have a bit more in the way of post scoring if Peko lives up to my expectations and Darko can drop his hook shot occasionally.
Interviewer: Can you understand why teams value potential ahead of experience and accomplishment in the draft? Wes Johnson: "Yeah. I understand. It’s the youngness of everything – older guys like young women, so it’s the same way."
Wings
Firstly here are some issues with PER
Problems With PER
1) it is a stat designed arbitrarily by ESPN Insider writer John Hollinger as an all-in-one basketball rating, which attempts to show a player’s contribution in one number.
2)PER largely measures offensive performance. Hollinger freely admits that two of the defensive statistics it incorporates — blocks and steals — can produce a distorted picture of a player’s value and that PER is not a reliable measure of a player’s defensive acumen. For example, Bruce Bowen, widely regarded as one of the best defenders in the NBA (at least through the 2006-07 season), has routinely posted single-digit PERs.
“Bear in mind that this rating is not the final, once-and-for-all answer for a player’s accomplishments during the season. This is especially true for players such as Bruce Bowen and Trenton Hassell who are defensive specialists but don’t get many blocks or steals.”
Neither PER nor per-game statistics take into account such intangible elements as competitive drive, leadership, durability, conditioning, or hustle, largely because there is no real way to quantitatively measure these things, which are often based on opinion.
In addition, some have argued that PER gives undue weight to a player’s contribution in limited minutes, or against a team’s second unit, and it undervalues players who have enough diversity in their game to play starter’s minutes.
Lastly, PER rewards inefficient shooting. To quote Dave Berri, the author of The Wages of Wins:
“Hollinger argues that each two point field goal made is worth about 1.65 points. A three point field goal made is worth 2.65 points. A missed field goal, though, costs a team 0.72 points. Given these values, with a bit of math we can show that a player will break even on his two point field goal attempts if he hits on 30.4% of these shots. On three pointers the break-even point is 21.4%. If a player exceeds these thresholds, and virtually every NBA played does so with respect to two-point shots, the more he shoots the higher his value in PERs. So a player can be an inefficient scorer and simply inflate his value by taking a large number of shots.”
some key points
Brewers FG% (43.1) and 3P% (34.6) are actually comparable to a lot of the guys the wolves fans have been coveting like Gay (46.6 and 32.7), Granger (42.8 and 36.1) and treva ariza (39.4 and 33.4, not that the wolves want ariza per se).
Not only are Brewer’s number comparible to these guys, his shots usually come at the end of bad offensive possessions by the team (such as overpossession from our PG and extremeley poor spacing from others).
I’m not saying Brewer is the next Ray Allen, but he was never going to be. He was drafted where he was because he was a long, athletic and capable defender with the ability to improve, which he has done so far (albeit a little to slow for most peoples liking).
In regards to his defense I really like the analogy used above, every game I watched it truly was Corey Brewer vs the other team and no-one, i don’t care who you are will be an effective defender when trying to guard three or four positions at one time. For this to improve Brewer a) needs help which is why I like the addition of Webster (who can play D) and Johnson (who has the tools to be a good defender) b) Other players not new to the team must mack some sort of effort on D including Flynn and Love, Darko was ok and most importantly Big Al the baby Shaq of guarding pick and rolls will be gone so there shouldn’t be a glaring hole in at center in defense and if Flynn improves he defense this summer Brewer will hopefully be able to trust in the defensive abilities/application of his team mates so he won’t look like a chicken with it’s head cut off trying to guard every position on the floor..
oops
wasn’t meant to post that yet, not finished.
Oh well, bottom line is that PER is not the be all and end all it is a highly flawed statistic used as a one stop shop that doesn’t fit very well when applied to defensive minded and hustle players (can’t really measure these).
Brewer has gotten better and will get better, will he be MVP of this league doubtfull, will he be an also in this league? doubtful, can be be a real contributor on a good team? yes.
But as it stands we are all just speculators with our own views on what will unfold in the next few seasons for the Wolves, I for one think Corey/Johnson/Webster will be very good together but again that’s just my opinion.
Agreed
PER is a flawed statistic that rewards heavy rebounding guys who play limited minutes. I would like to see Corey on a team that could mitigate the damage done by his jumping the passing lane or leaking out on the break, both often prematurely. In that scenario Corey could be, as Jim Peterson would shill, er, say, “Dynamic.” Hopefully Khan’s putting such a team around him (he’s not, because of his not being all that bright, but hopefully he is).
Anyway, good post.
by TheFlingerofPoo on Jul 3, 2010 1:58 AM CDT up reply actions
All good points
I think PER is a great, one stop shop stat for comparing the general performances of players in a general analysis, which is what my intent was. It is flawed, but from a basic perspective comparing the PER of Darko to Hollins one could infer that, yup, Darko is a bit more productive on the court in ways that change the boxscore. Compared to Love, however, Darko’s contributions to changing his team’s boxscore aren’t in the same leagues as Love’s. The point you guys are raising is how does Darko (in this example) change the other team’s boxscore in comparison to a guy like Love. PER gives very limited insight into this perspective.
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Timberwolves' Wings
After reading, I am glad they addressed the wing position in the Draft. I think they could go make an offer to a Tony Allen type defensive player still, to try and shut down a wing from another team. Anyway the excel graph was great.
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