Let's talk about some D
by NYCVike on Jul 20, 2010 10:43 PM CDT
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PrintThe Timberwolves have made nearly wholesale roster changes this offseason, and it looks like our offense should be much improved with our added jump-shooters.
However, when I look at the new roster I see much larger improvements on defense. The Wolves were likely the worst defending team in the league last year and have nowhere to go but up. Both David Kahn and Kurt Rambis have talked about adding toughness to their team and it appears they have done that with guys like Martell Webster and Lazar Hayward. I thought I'd take a stab and putting our players from last year and this year into tiers as far as how they performed, and will be expected to perform, defensively
2009 Tier 1
Darko Milicic (for the last 15 games or so)
Tier 2
Damian Wilkins
Tier 3
Oleksey Pecherov
This year I project something like this:
2010 Tier 1
Corey Brewer
Martell Webster
Darko Milicic
Wes Johnson (I know he's from Syracuse but from what little I've seen from him the guy looks like a natural defender)
Tier 2
Kevin Love
Nikola Pekovic
Lazar Hayward
Tier 3
Jonny Flynn
Ryan Hollins
Wayne Ellington
This is purely my gut instinct from what I've seen in summer league and the opinions that seem to be consensus about some of our new players.
It would appear that we move from the worst defensive team to something like a below average defensive team, but with the talent to grow into something pretty solid in time. A lot of our defensive problems have been about communcation and "gelling" as a team. We've gotten better individual defenders but with so many new players it will likely take until midseason before we start seeing major development there. Still, I have to believe our improved quickness alone has to amount to many more posessions this year. If Jonny can cut down the TOs we'll have some very nice nights to look forward to.
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i hope we can get
into the 15-23 range, and i think its very likely. most of that falls on rambis though because now we have tough athletes on the defensive side of the ball. Webster, Brewer, Johnson, and Lazar all seem to have the tools and attitude to be plus defenders. Darko and Jonny have the size and athleticism, respectively, to be at least average defenders at their positions. factor in Love being a competent on ball defender and Beasley’s athleticism and I think that if we fall short of at least the 15-23 team range then the blame falls squarely on Rambis’ shoulders
I'd go with 4 tiers
Moving Wes from Tier 1 to Tier 2, I agree with the potential but not even good nba defenders start out that way early in their careers. It takes at least a season to understand the concept of team defense in the nba, something that is rarely taught well in college (except under Bo Ryan and Ben Howland).
I’d also move all the guys in Tier 2 to Tier 3 in a 4 Tier system. I wouldn’t classify any of those guys as above average. Love is below average defending 4’s, Beasley has the talent and will eventually move into a Tier 1/2 type defender with commitment. Ridnour has quick hands and should be on the border of Tier 2/3, but from what I’ve heard bigger guards give him trouble. It sounds like Pek is slow and will probably take some time to get used to the NBA-styles of defense. I like Hayward’s potential at the 3, but he’s too slow laterally to guard 2’s and will also need some adjustment to the nba style defense.
Is Ellington really that bad on defense? I haven’t witnessed him much in games, and didn’t catch too much summer league action, but I figured he’d at least be okay. He’s athletic and seems like he gives good effort which is about 80% of it. Though I hate him more than life itself, I might even put Hollins in Tier 3 instead of 4. I feel like he’s not a bad weak-side help defender with his athleticism and tutelage under Howland at UCLA.
Brewer
This thinking that Brewer is a plus defender needs to go. The guy just hasn’t advanced defensively like he was projected. He’s an ok help defender but his man to man is average at best
by jama on Jul 21, 2010 6:45 AM CDT via mobile reply actions
The line of thinking is
that if Brewer were not the only player that was actually playing defense, he would be able to focus more on his man than on running in to help Jefferson only to leave his own man wide open on the perimeter. There was an obvious step down in his defensive play this year, but hopefully another year of healthiness will help him get that back slowly as well.
I’ve said many a time why I think defensive metrics are trash and Brewer is a prime example for just about every reason I think so.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
D
Is that what happens between missing shots, turnovers, and getting your shot blocked?
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
We'll be significantly better
I’ll state my position again:
Between our SGs and SFs last year we gave up, on average, nearly 10 points/game to the opposition.
Wes Johnson, Martell Webster, Corey Brewer, and Lazar/Wellington >> Ryan Gomes, Corey Brewer, Damien Wilkins, and Wellington/Pavs in terms of points differential (part scoring, part defense).
Thus if all other positions on the team yield the same scoring differential (net zero) and our SGs and SFs can reduce their scoring differential to -5 ppg instead of the nearly -10 ppg of last year, our Pythagorean Win total predicts to be 29 next year.
To me this is the crux of next season for us – it’s not about scoring/getting a go-to scorer. It’s about improving the defense. We’ve got an influx of shooters – good shooters – and vastly improved length, athleticism, and defensive ability on the perimeter. We’ve replaced two big defensive liabilities in the middle (Hollins and Al) with Darko and Pek (Pek can’t be worse than Hollins, can he? What matters is scoring differential against his competition, and Pek beats Hollins in this metric in my opinion). We are collectively gun shy about predicting big things about this team, but I find it very, very difficult to believe that (short of a major injury to a guy like Love or Wes) this team will win fewer than 25 games. I’m not drinking Kool-Aid here. It all comes back to scoring differential to me, and no matter how I slice it I just don’t see us worse than -6 ppg (Pyth Wins = 23.5), and potentially as good as -3 or -4 ppg (Pyth Wins = 31).
"Styx might be the mullet of bands."
it’s sad but true that even replacing 4 glorified D-leaguers minutes with average NBA players could make a 15ish win difference… crazy how bad we were last year.
by NuthinBurger on Jul 21, 2010 11:54 AM CDT up reply actions
You might be drinking a little bit of Kool Aid
If you look at PER numbers across the years, Webster looks very Wilkins-like (though Webster does have a reputation for being a decent defender). Gomes is a competent player that is now out of the mix. Brewer and Ellington are on the team in both years, though there was some improvement over the course of the year. Wes and Lazar are rookies — and Wes has the dreaded Syracuse zone background to overcome.
At center, I don’t think Pek is known for his defense and some CHers have argued that Darko’s defense only looked good by comparison to what we’ve seen recently (i.e., still not very good by league-wide standards). And Jefferson’s not around anymore, so there’s at least some scoring to be replaced.
So while I think we’ve brought in potential improvements on the wing and in the middle, I’m not ready to declare victory (or 25 of them) and move on. There’s still plenty of downside to go with our newly acquired upside. So I’ll stick with being gun shy for now, even as I hope for the best. An expectation of at least 25 wins seems optimistic to me. I think 25 wins is a reasonable goal for the team, but I won’t be surprised if they don’t reach it.
by Madison Dan on Jul 21, 2010 12:37 PM CDT up reply actions
God help us when speculating a 25 win season equates "drinking the Kool-Aid"....
There is certainly reason to think our scoring may be down a bit after losing Al. He was our only guaranteed go-to scorer, and now it looks as if its Michael Beasley or bust. I agree with B2B though that with our improved match ups at the 2 and 3 (those you just can’t doubt) its seems very unlikely that we won’t win at least 10 more games.
It wasn't just 25 wins,
it was at least 25 wins, which can start seeming overly optimistic pretty quickly. We were a 15-win team that has since lost two productive players in Jefferson and Gomes. We’ve added a bunch of other pieces that people can legitimately be excited about, but none of them is a lock to be a real difference maker for us. All I’m saying is that I’ll believe in the big improvements when I see them on the court.
Fair enough
I’m too am only interested in what gets put out on the court. Speculating is fun, but at the end of the day reality is what matters.
Gomes=the epitomy of stop n pop
He avoided contact like the bubonic plague. A classic Flip Saunders type player. He will drag the Clippers down, too. So glad he’s gone.
I agree
And would add that the main place the defense will improve is by simply reducing transition buckets. That killed them last year in the sense that many of their blowouts were games where the opponent figuratively ran them out of the building. We can quibble about metrics, but the eye test says Johnson/Brewer/Webster/Ellington/Hayward/Beasley is a much more athletic bunch than Brewer/Ellington/Pavlovic/Wilkins/Gomes.
by pagingstanleyroberts on Jul 21, 2010 1:45 PM CDT up reply actions
so true in transition
I know I’m not the only one who watched our team last year and thought “Wait! Aren’t we supposed to be a running team?” while watching our guys lope down the court every game….
I think Beasley might be our best defensive player
On 82 games look at " opponent counterpart 48 minute production" this shows the the actual average EFG% of the person a player is guarding (at least I think it does) if so, Beasley is well above average in holding opponents below their normal (EFG % 50.1 for all posn) of course rebounding and turnovers are also part of D.
I think Opp EFG% is too simple of a metric to be that helpful. It can sometimes be a decent barometer of defensive play, but there’s too much happening on that side of the ball to rely on just that measure. Correct me if it includes this, but dealing with switches on pick and rolls and pick and pops, as well as helpside defense are huge parts of defense that are omitted by that basic measure. You need to factor in so much that a more comprehensive dataset is required.
heart of a champion, will of the warrior.
The Defense will be much improved this year
Even Kevin Durant has been employing a simulation of the new, tougher Wolves pressure in practice to be better prepared to face this suddenly threatening team in the regular season.
Is that head
with horns?
Breaking down cognitive dissonance and group think since gasoline was cheap.
could be earwax
Squirting earwax to block a player’s sight of the basket is a classic way to mess with your opponent’s head.
by oblivionspocket on Jul 22, 2010 4:20 PM CDT up reply actions
Stat geeks
Going to 82 games to analysis by position and then to "opponent counterpart 48 min production by position I was finally able to average the Effectivtive shooting percentage by every team per position . For the NBA 2009-10 season PG is .490 SG.495 SF.496 PF .502 C.522.5 now you can go to each MN player and compare them to these averages if you wish. The average for all players is .501 and for Mn it is .523 I believe. Flynn comes out at .483 meaning his defense was actually above average in that regard while Brewer was a very poor .543 (in 2007-8 it was .505 much better against SF instead of SG). By the way, Wages of wins uses the team average .523 when evaluating players.
Easy explanation
Brewer rotated to the next guy and Flynn didn’t.
You're not letting natural selection take its course! You're like the guy who invented the seatbelt...
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